Trump Leads Harris in US Election Poll Ahead of Presidential Debate | Daybreak: Europe 09/09/2024

N/A TOM: ASIAN STOCKS EXTEND THE SELLOFF AS WORSE THAN EXPECTED DATER ADDS TO FEARS THE FED IS BEHIND THE CURVE. DEFLATION RISKS GROWTH IN CHINA , WEEK DEMANDS THREATENED BEIJING'S PART. N/A A POLL= SUGGESTING THE ELECTION IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL AND TRUMPS 100% ♪ TERROR THREAT. ♪ -- TARIFF THREAT. HAPPY MONDAY. N/A FUTURES POINT HIGHER AFTER LOSSES ON THE S&P AND FOR EUROPEAN STOCKS. EUROPEAN FUTURES LOOKING TO TAKE A BREATHER. GAINS OF 7/10 OF A PERCENT AND NASDAQ FEATURES POSITIVE. NVIDIA IS DOWN 20% SINCE THE END OF AUGUST. SELLING PRESSURE FROM TREASURIES, ACTION COMING THROUGH GIVEN GAINS, NOW MODEST. STILL DEBATE AS TO HOW FAR AND DEEP THE FED WILL GO BUT MARKETS ARE DIVIDED. 110 ON EURO-DOLLAR. BRENT UP, SO A STRONG SESSION. WTI WAS BELOW 70 A BARREL. CONTINUED CONCERN AROUND DEMAND OUT OF CHINA. SEEING DIVISIONS AND SPLIT WITH IRON ORE. AVRIL IS IN SINGAPORE. A CHALLENGED SESSION. AVRIL: WE SAW ASIA SLUMPING TILL NOW, ASIA EQUITIES HIT BY A WALL OF WORRY, ECONOMIC DATA, TECH DRIVEN MARKETS ARE HARDEST HIT, YEN STRONGER EARLIER TODAY HELPED TO FILTER THROUGH INTO APPETITE FOR JAPANESE EQUITIES IN A BAD WAY AND THE NIKKEI WAS DOWN. WE HAD DATA OUT OF CHINA TODAY FILLING DEFLATIONARY FEARS PERSIST, DEEPER CONTRACTION COUPLED WITH DATA SHOWING DOWNWARD REVISION. FLIP DA BOARD. A LOT OF IT HAS BEEN DRIVEN BY U.S. DATA, TODAY WE GOT DATA OUT OF JAPAN ON THE GDP PRINT. ENOUGH OF A RISE ON JAPAN GDP TO BOLSTER HIKING RATES. THE KICKER WAS FROM FORMER BOJ GOVERNOR WHO SOUNDED DOVISH DURING HIS TENURE WHICH SUGGESTS MORE HIKING TO GO. BUT GIVING UP OF GAINS ON THE JAPANESE CURRENCY NOT JUST AGAINST THE GREENBACK BUT THE AUSSIE DOLLAR. FLIP THE BOARD. I WANT TO TAKE YOU TO THE KEY INDICATORS INCLUDING ACROSS AUSSIE YEN, RISING BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE TRAJECTORY SINCE SEPTEMBER, IT HAS BEEN DOWNWARDS AND THIS IS THE HEDGE FOR RISK AVERSION FOR INVESTORS. OVERALL THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ASIAN EQUITIES. TOM: AVRIL, THANK YOU INDEED. TO THE JOBS DATA FALLING SHORT OF FORECASTS IN AUGUST, CHRIS WALLER SAYS THE LATEST JOBS DATA CALLS FOR THE CENTRAL BANK TO CUT RATES. CHRIS: THE BALANCE HAS SHIFTED AND MONETARY POLICY NEEDS TO ADJUST. CURRENT DATA NO LONGER REQUIRES PATIENCE, BUT ACTION. TOM: TIME FOR ACTION. MARK CRANFIELD STANDING BY FOR A TAKE ON THE DATA THAT CROSSED ON FRIDAY. INVESTORS DID NOT SEEM IMPRESSED. WHAT IS GOING ON, HOW DO YOU TIE THAT IN WITH THE DATER THAT WE SAW? MARK: YOU'VE GOT A DISCONNECT BETWEEN INVESTORS AND FED SPEAK. AFTER THE DATA CAME OUT INVESTORS THOUGHT IT WAS ENOUGH TO SATISFY THE RATE CUTS PRICED IN TO THE CURVE. 200 BASIS POINTS OF CUTS. INCLUDING EXPECTATIONS. 50 BASIS POINTS. WHEN SPEAKERS CAME OUT THEY WERE CIRCUMSPECT. THERE WAS DISAPPOINTMENT AGAIN AFTER HE SPOKE. A BIT OF A REBOUND TODAY, NOTHING TO MAKE UP THE LOSSES LAST WEEK WHICH WAS THE WORST WEEK IN 18 MONTHS. HERE WE ARE GOING TOWARD THE FEDERAL RESERVE BUT MARKETS ARE RELAXED. SOFT LANDING IS MORE LIKELY SUGGESTING 50 BASIS POINTS BUT LEANING TOWARD 25. THAT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT'S GOING TO SATISFY PEOPLE WHO ARE VERY HUNGRY FOR MORE. TOM: RELAXED NATURE BEING ECHOED IT SEEMS BY JANET YELLEN SAYING THERE ARE NO RED LIGHTS FLASHING. REITERATING THAT U.S. ECONOMY HAS REACHED THE SOFT LANDING. JANET: OVERRULE I WOULD SAY THE KINDS OF METRICS WE WOULD MONITOR THAT WOULD SUMMARIZE RACE -- RISKS, THINGS LOOK -- THINGS LOOK GOOD. I DON'T SEE RED LIGHTS FLASHING. TOM: TREASURY SECRETARY HAS BEEN REITERATING THAT THERE IS SOFT LANDING FOR MONTHS AND PROVEN RIGHT. WILL TRADERS TAKE COMFORT FROM THESE COMMENTS? MARK: NOT TOO MUCH. SHE IS IN A POST WHERE THERE IS AN ELECTION AND SHE WANTS TO GIVE THE SIGNALS FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY SO THEY DON'T EXPECT ANY WARNING . WHEN SHE WAS CHAIRMAN OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SHE WAS THE MOST DOVISH, NEVER GAVE HAWKISH INDICATIONS. SHE WILL SEE A LOT OF DATA, HAS A LOT OF EXPERIENCE AND IF SHE THINKS A SOFT LANDING IS COMING SOME WELL SAID THAT IS A RELIEF BUT IT WILL NOT DISSUADE TRADERS. THEY WOULD LIKE THE FED TO GET STARTED WITH A BIGGER ONE. JANET YELLEN IS NOT ON THE BOARD SO IT IS SOMEONE ELSE'S JOB BUT TRADERS THINK IT WOULD BE BETTER TO GET THE JOB STARTED, SOME THINK IT SHOULD HAVE STARTED LOWER BUT KICKSTARTING BIGGER NOW RATHER THAN WAITING. TOM: INDEED. CHINA'S CONSUMER PRICES LOWS -- ROSE LESS THAN EXPECTED. ADDING TO SIGNS POLICYMAKERS ARE STRUGGLING. LET'S BRING IN OUR REPORTER IN HONG KONG. WHAT DOES THE DATA TELL US? MINMIN: CPI AND PPI ARE MISSING EXPECTATIONS. N/A WEAK DEMAND IS UNDERPINNED BY CAPACITY. HEADLINE IS 0.6 MASKING UNDERLYING WEAKNESS. WE HAD BAD WEATHER BOOSTING FOOD PRICES AND IF YOU LOOK AT THE CORE INFLATION IT WAS NEGATIVE IN AUGUST. PRODUCER PRICE INDEX IS STEEP FOR THE 23RD MONTH DRIVEN BY WEAKNESS IN THE PBOC GOVERNOR WAS SAYING THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO PAY ATTENTION TO INFLATION. CHINA'S TARGET IS 3% AND THEY'VE BEEN PRIORITIZING GROWTH. HOPING THAT GDP TURNS POSITIVE. THAT IS LOOKING CHALLENGING. TOM: FASCINATING. IT'S NOT OFTEN YOU HEAR FROM FORMER SENIOR OFFICIALS. IN TERMS OF STIMULUS IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKE IT IS COMING. WHY? MINMIN: WE HAVE SEEN A TROOP FEED ON DEMAND AND SUPPLY BUT THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO HIT A GROWTH TARGET OF 5% AND SLIGHTLY BELOW THAT IS ACCEPTABLE. GOVERNMENT IS SHIFTING TOWARD HIGH QUALITY GROWTH AND WILLING TO TOLERATE SMALLER GROWTH. MANY COMPETING PRIORITIES RIGHT NOW DECOUPLING FROM BROAD CONSUMPTION, REDUCING DEBT AND CLEANING UP FINANCIAL SECTOR. WE ARE TRUDGING TOWARD 4.8% RIGHT NOW UNLESS THERE IS EXTREMELY WEAK DATA, THEN MAYBE THEY MIGHT CONSIDER MORE AGGRESSIVE CIRCUIT BREAKERS FOR THE ECONOMY. TOM: INDEED. THE LATEST ON THE DATA FACING THE SECOND LARGEST ECONOMY. A REMARKABLE STORY GIVEN WHAT UNFOLDED, THE PRESSURE ON THE OIL SPACE AND A SPLIT VERSUS CORE INPUTS AROUND IRON AND COPPER BUT LET'S START WITH OIL. REPORTS FROM OPEC ON OIL COULD GIVE MORE DETAILS. CONCERN ABOUT DEMAND AND SUPPLY BELOW $70, BRENT IS OVER 1%. FURTHER PRESSURE, CHINA FACING A STEEL CRISIS AND DEMAND LOOKING SOFTER. WATCHING PRICING AND RESOURCES. COPPER IS FLAT. COMING UP ENERGY PATHWAY STRATEGY OFFICER JEFF CURRY WILL JOIN THE SHOW. DON'T MISS THAT CONVERSATION. TALKING OF WHAT IS AHEAD HERE IS WHAT ELSE TO BE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEK. TUESDAY THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE BETWEEN HARRIS AND TRUMP AS POLLS SUGGEST A TIGHT RACE. WEDNESDAY IS THE INFLATION DATA OUT OF THE U.S., LESS IMPORTANT THAN JOBS. STILL CONSEQUENTIAL ABOUT HOW FAR THE FED WILL GO. THURSDAY IS THE ECB DECISION WITH COMMENTARY FROM CHRISTINE LAGARDE. LESS THAN TWO MONTHS UNTIL A U.S. ELECTION, RESULTS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR, THE LATEST NEXT AND WE WILL HAVE AN EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW WITH LAURA TO FIND OUT WHY HER FIRM IS TOM: WELCOME BACK. N/A REPUBLICAN NOMINEE TRUMP LEADS HARRIS BY ONE PERCENTAGE POINTS IN A POLL LAST WEEK, THE LATEST SIGN THAT THE RACE IS TOO CLOSE. LET'S GET MORE WITH DEREK WALLBANK. HAS THE THROUGH THE D&C NOW PEAKED FOR THE VICE PRESIDENT? >> WHAT WE HAVE GOT IS A PAUSE IN THE EXPANSION OF SUPPORT FOR HARRIS AND IT HIT THE LEVEL BECAUSE TRUMP'S SUPPORT HAS NOT BUDGED, HE HAS STATED MOVE 40'S DEPENDING ON WHAT SURVEY YOU WANT TO LOOK AT, HARRIS IS IN A TIE, BUT NOT ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH. IF YOU LOOK AT THE NEW YORK TIMES POLL TRUMP IS UP ACCORDING TO THE NEW YORK TIMES POLLING AVERAGE. SEEING TIES IN NEVADA, GEORGIA, NORTH CAROLINA AND ARIZONA. VERY THERE HARRIS LEADS AND WALKING INTO THE DEBATE WE ARE LOOKING AT A VERY, VERY CLOSE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE AND ALL THAT COMES WITH IT. TOM: THAT WILL BE FASCINATING. TRUMP MAKING NEWS PLEDGING 100% TARIFFS TWO COUNTRIES THAT SHUN THE DOLLOP. HOW SERIOUS DO YOU THINK TRUMP IS? DEREK: I THINK SERIOUS AS A HEART ATTACK. WE COVERED THIS FOR A LONG TIME. YOU HAVE A LOT OF EXPERIENCE. WE WERE AROUND WHEN HE WAS TALKING ABOUT TARIFFS AND PEOPLE THOUGHT HE WAS BLUFFING. HE IMPLEMENTED THEM AND THIS IS THE SORT OF THING THAT WHEN YOU ARE LOOKING AT TRUMP, HE DID NOT NEED DEMOCRATS, TARIFFS IS A THING THE PRESIDENT CAN JUST DO SO WHEN HE TALKS ABOUT TARIFFS YOU HAVE TO TAKE IT SERIOUSLY BECAUSE HE HAS A RECORD OF USING TARIFFS QUITE, QUITE PROLIFICALLY. THE IDEA OF DO YOU DOLLARIZATION IS SOMETHING THE U.S. PAYS ATTENTION TO, THE IDEA OF WHETHER USD IS STRONG ALTHOUGH TRUMP HAS TALKED ABOUT LOWERING RATES DURING HIS PRESIDENCY UPCOMING AND MAKE THE DOLLAR NOT AS STRONG AS NOW. N/A THE IDEA OF THE DOLLAR IS RESIDENT, THE PRESTIGE AND THE ADVANTAGES WHEN YOU HAVE RESERVE STATUS. THERE IS NOISE ABOUT THAT, THAT'S SOMETHING THE GOVERNMENT WILL TAKE SERIOUSLY AND YOU HEAR DONALD TRUMP TALKING ABOUT POSSIBILITY OF PENALIZING. I WOULD NOT RULE THAT OUT. TOM: OK. AND -- AND -- AND WE WILL SEE IN -- IN -- IN THIS UPCOMING DEBATE. I SAID THE TRUMP TEAM, HOW PIVOTAL COULD THIS MOMENT BE? DEREK: HAD YOU ASKED ME IN LET'S SAY MAY OR SO BETWEEN BIDEN INTERIM I WOULD HAVE TOLD YOU DEBATES COME AND GO. OBVIOUSLY THE DEBATE BETWEEN BIDEN AND DONALD TRUMP WAS TRANSFORMATIVE, THE ONLY REAL CHANCE TO SEE HARRIS AND TRUMP TOGETHER. ONE OF THE THINGS WE ARE SEEING IS PEOPLE HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF DONALD TRUMP, THEY HAVE SEEN FOUR YEARS OF HIM BUT HARRIS HAS A BIT OF UNKNOWN. TRUMP IS TRYING TO DEFINE HER AS A SAN FRANCISCO LIBERAL. HARRIS HAS MADE MORE PRAGMATISTS THAN PEOPLE GIVE HER CREDIT FOR, MORE THAN SHE WAS RUNNING AS SO THIS WILL BE A CHANCE IN YOU'RE HEARING THE CAMPAIGN LOWERING EXPECTATIONS. SHE SAID I AM A PROSECUTOR HE IS A FELON. YOU WOULD EXPECT HER TO HAVE A GOOD NIGHT. DONALD TRUMP HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATED MORE THAN WANTS THOUGH. TOM: THAT IS -- THAT IS TRUE. DEREK WHILE BANK INDEED. PLENTY MORE INCLUDING UKRAINE, RUSSIA AND VENEZUELA. TOM: NOW TO SOME OTHER STORIES. N/A THREE ISRAELIS HAVE BEEN KILLED, THE FIRST INCIDENT SINCE THE WAR IN GAZA. SHOTS WERE FIRED AND ISRAEL CLOSED THE ROAD. TWO NATO MEMBERS REPORTED INCIDENTS INVOLVING RUSSIAN DRONE. A RUSSIAN DRONE CRASHED IN THE COUNTRY AND ROMANIA IS FOREIGN MINISTER URGED RUSSIA TO ABIDE BY INTERNATIONAL LORE OVER THE WEEKEND. OPPOSITION LEADER ED MODO GONZALES HAS BEEN GRANTED ASYLUM IN SPAIN AFTER VOTING RECORDS PROVED HE WAS THE WINNER OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT REQUESTED AN EXTENSION TO SUBMIT ITS PLAN TO REDUCE THE DEFICIT ASKING TO ENSURE CONSISTENCY WITH ITS BUILT WITHOUT SAYING WHAT THE NEW DEADLINE WOULD BE. COMING UP THE ECB CUT INTEREST RATES ON THURSDAY, WE BRING YOU THE PREVIEW, STAY WITH US. THIS BLOOMBERG. ♪ TOM: GOOD MORNING, THIS BEING NUMBER DAYBREAK. THESE ARE THE STORIES THAT SET YOUR AGENDA. GLOBAL SELLOFF, WORSE THAN EXPECTED DID DATA AS THE FED IS BEHIND THE CURVE. U.S. FUTURES HIGHER. DEFLATION RISKS GROW IN CHINA, PRICES RISE LESS THAN EXPECTED AND THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE HEATS UP, TOO CLOSE TO CALL. TRUMP'S 100% TARIFFS THREAT. DOLLAR IS MODESTLY UP. A LITTLE BRIGHTER IS THE MOOD AFTER THE ROUTE LAST WEEK. EUROPEAN FUTURES POINT HIGHER BY 5/10 OF 1%, THE FTSE UP DESPITE FURTHER WEAKNESS IN IRON ORE. FUTURES ADDING 20 POINTS. S&P LOWERED, WORSE WEEK SINCE NOVEMBER OF 2022. POINTING HIGHER BY 6/10 OF A POINT. AFTER THE BOND BULLS HAD THE BIT BETWEEN THEIR TEETH, REWINDING SOME OF THAT. 369, DEBATING HOW FAR THEY CURVE , MARKET UNDECIDED. 7190 ON BRENT. UPSIDE AFTER A CHALLENGED WEEK FOR OIL. IRON ORE DOWN 1.2%. MARIO DRAGHI DELIVERING HIS REPORT ON COMPETITIVENESS. EXPECTING TO SOUND THE ALARM OVER THE RISK OF ECONOMIC DECLINE. JOINING ME IS JAMIE RUSH WITH A FINGER ON THE POLLS OF THE DATA. WHAT ARE YOU EXPECTING MARIO N/A DRAGHI SAY? JAMIE: UM, THIS IS NOT THE FIRST REPORT WE HAVE HAD. LAST ONE WAS 2003 AND ANDRES SAID EUROPE IS STUCK IN A RUT AND THEY'VE BEEN STUCK FOR TWO DECADES SO THEY WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT FACT. 18% GDP GAP EMERGED SO THIS WILL BE A SERIOUS RISK, IT WILL CHANGE THE EURO ZONE STANDING AND I EXPECT HIM TO FLAGGING THE NEED TO INVEST IN ENERGY, DEFENSE. MORE ACTIVE STRATEGY DEALING WITH SUBSIDIES. MAIN PROBLEM IS NO MONEY TO FINANCE. HE WILL CALL FOR JOINT BORROWING, DEAD IN THE WATER AFTER THE ELECTION RESULTS. HE WAS THE MAIN CHAMPION AND IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL GET ON BOARD SO SERIOUS PROBLEMS IN ANYTHING WILL BE DIFFICULT. TOM: FISCAL CONSTRAINTS ARE THERE, DOMESTIC POLITICS. DOES THE ECB RIDE TO THE RESCUE? WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE JULY? JAMIE: THE ECB ALWAYS COMES TO THE RESCUE SO A COUPLE THINGS HAVE CHANGED WITH JACKSON HOLE AND THE FED SIGNALING CUTS. THAT TAKES PRESSURE OFF THE CURRENCY. MORE COMFORTABLE TO CUT INTEREST RATES AND THEY'VE HAD WAGE GROWTH. COMPENSATION CAPTURING ALL THAT IS GOING ON. FALLING BACK MUCH BELOW FIVE POINT 1% FORECAST, FUELING CONFIDENCE. PROFIT MARGINS FALLING BACK, LOTS OF GOOD NEWS. TOM: ALL CAPS A. JAMIE RASKIN ON WHAT TO EXPECT. THANK YOU FOR THE ANALYSIS. LET'S BRING IN SOPHIE, FROM BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT YOU KIND. GOOD MORNING. GIVEN THE CHALLENGES AND GERMANY AND POLITICS OF FRANCE ARE THE MARKETS UNDERESTIMATING HOW FAR THE ECB WILL MOVE? >> ECB CUTTING CYCLE HAS STARTED. THE QUESTION IS CONDITIONAL , WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL HAVE CUTS, IT IS CONDITIONAL. N/A ECB IS SUPPORTING THE MARKET BUT THE BAR IS LOW. AT A TIME WHERE IF YOU LOOK AT CON SOONER BALANCE SHEET IT IS MUCH HEALTHIER THAN U.S.. TOM: THAT SUGGESTS YOU ARE -- YOU ARE RELATIVELY CONSTRUCTIVE ON -- ON EUROPEAN EQUITIES. IF YOU ARE CONSTRUCTED WHERE IS YOUR FOCUS? SOPHIE: IT'S SOMETHING WE HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR COUPLE OF MONTHS NOW WHERE WE SEE AND WHAT STAGE IN THE CYCLE, THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN PLANNING FOR A REASSESSMENT. THE RESULT BASICALLY GAVE THE GREEN LIGHT TO ROTATE THE MEGA CAPS IN CHEAPER PARTS OF THE MARKET SO THE REST OF THE S&P BLOOD EQUITIES COULD FAREWELL. IN TERMS OF EARNING EXPECTATION IT IS QUITE LOW. IN TERMS OF WHERE YOU WANT TO ALLOCATE I THINK FRENCH EQUITIES OR GERMAN EQUITIES COULD MAKE SENSE. TOM: GERMAN AND FRENCH EQUITIES DESPITE HIGHLIGHTING CHINA AS A WILDCARD. WHAT IS THE RATIONALE? SOPHIE: ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS YOU STILL HAVE THE POLITICAL PREMIER. YES THERE ARE POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES BUT AT THIS STAGE WHEN THE DOLLAR IS WEAK YOU WILL CRUMBLE IN THE TWO PARTS WILL BENEFIT FROM IT. ON THE CHINA SIDE GIVEN THE DATA, THE CPI, ONE THING IS IF YOU WANT TO RICH THE 5% TARGET YOU HAVE TO REACT, BOOST CONSUMER DEMAND. SENTIMENT HAS BEEN ON THE DECLINE, THEY WILL HAVE TO DO SOMETHING ON THE CONSUMER SIDE BUT AS WELL GOOD NEWS ON THE PROPERTY SIDE. THIS WILL BE POSITIVE. TOM: THERE IS FURTHER TO GO IN TERMS OF EXCEPTIONALISM. IS THAT A SHORT DOLLAR CALL? SOPHIE: EXCEPTIONALISM IS EMBEDDED INTO U.S. ASSETS QUITE CLEARLY. THE FACT THAT PRICING HAS BEEN NEGATIVE IS NOT A SURPRISE BUT U.S. RESILIENCE IS IN THE PRICES. ONE WAY TO PLAY IN'S SHORT THE DOLLAR. ONE PUSHBACK IS WHAT ABOUT THE DOLLAR. POSITIONING FEELS BULLISH AND UNLESS THE DIXIE THOSE BACK TO 95 THE DOLLAR WILL BE COOKED. ONE WAY TO PLAY IS LONG AND OR SPRINKLE SOME RISK. HAVING SOME CURRENCIES SUCH AS THE CORONA OR AUSSIE. TOM: LOOKING TO THE KIWI, THE AUSSIE, GOING ALONG. SOPHIE, SENIOR STRATEGIST AT BNP PARIBAS, THANK YOU INDEED. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE ECB AND HOW TO POSITION. BETTING BIG ON EUROPEAN TECH. NEXT, FIND OUT WHY A FIRM IS INVESTING INTO EUROPE'S GAME CHASER. THEY HAVE RAISED 1.2 BILLION U.S. DOLLARS. WE WILL TALK ABOUT HOW THEY ♪ TOM: WELCOME BACK TO BLOOMBERG. BIG DAY FOR APPLE WITH THE FIRST AI SMARTPHONE UNVEILED. N/A OUR BIG TAKE LOOKS AT ITS RISE. LET'S BRING IN MATT, TECH ANALYST AT BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE. WHAT TO EXPECT? HOW CONSEQUENTIAL COULD THIS BE? MATT: WE HEARD ABOUT THEIR AMBITIONS IN JUNE, THIS MIGHT BE UNDERWHELMING. IT WILL LOOK LIKE THE 15, A PLATFORM FOR NEW FEATURES PUSHED OUT SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING HOW HARD THEY PUSH THE TEACHERS. ROLLED OUT LATE THIS YEAR AND A FEW OTHER THINGS LIKE ACTION BUTTONS AND A NEW BUTTON THAT IS LIKE THE CAPTURE BUTTON ON A DIGITAL CAMERA. THAT IS A NEW FEATURE YOU CAN UPGRADE FOR. THE PRO AND PROMAX WILL BE BIGGER, SO NO OVERWHELMING UPDATES. DEFINITELY PUSHING AI BUT IT MAY BE DELAYED EXCITEMENT GIVEN N/A THESE FEATURES WON'T HAPPEN FOR A FEW MONTHS. TOM: WHAT IS THE COMPETITIVE THREAT? MATT: THERE'S LOTS OF COMPETITION BUT YOU'VE GOT ANDROID AND IPHONE CAMPS AND THERE IS NOT TOO MUCH SHIFT EITHER WAY. EVERYONE IS LOOKING FOR A SUPER CYCLE AND I DON'T THINK WE WILL GET THAT BUT MAYBE HAS MORE AI FEATURES BECOME LAUNCHED IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS AND THE CONSUMER GETS TO UNDERSTAND WHAT THEY CAN DO, NEXT YEAR OR THE IPHONE 17 IS WHEN YOU GET MORE POTENTIAL FOR A SUPER CYCLE. TOM: MATT FROM BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE SETTING US UP FOR THE IPHONE 16 UPDATE AND AI, AS THEY BUILD SERVICES ONTO THOSE PLATFORMS INDEED. LET'S SEE WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE EUROPEAN TECH SPACE WITH ONE COMPANY TURBOCHARGING THE SECTOR. ATOMICO RAISED $1.24 BILLION FOR ITS TWO NEW FUNDS, THE BRIGHTEST PROSPECTS IN THE TECH SPACE. JOINING US IS LAURA, A PARTNER. GOOD MORNING. SPLIT BETWEEN EARLY STAGE AND GROWTH FUND. THERE IS A LACK OF GROWTH FUNDING IN EUROPE WHAT DOES THIS TELL US ABOUT FUNDRAISING? HOW MUCH OF A CHALLENGE WAS IT? LAURA: IT HAS BEEN A CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT ALL AROUND IN THE U.S. AND EUROPE AND GLOBALLY. WE ARE PLEASED WE HAVE RAISED TO FUNDS THAT ARE LARGER THAN OUR LAST SO A REAL ENDORSEMENT OF APPETITE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR INVESTORS EARLIER AND LATER. THE OTHER THING IS THE -- THE -- THE STRUCTURAL GAPS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN TECH INVESTMENT DISCUSSED AS PART OF THE REPORT. THIS IS THE GROWTH STAGE, TO THROW A FEW STATS YOUR WAY THERE IS A SMALLER OPPORTUNITY FOR EARLY STAGE COMPANIES RAISING A FOLLOWING. FIVE YEARS AFTER INVESTMENT VERSUS U.S. COUNTERPARTS, WE FIND THOSE COMPANIES THAT RAISED A SEED FUND IN EUROPE HAVE THE SAME PROBABILITY OF A BILLION-DOLLAR VALUATION HAS U.S. COUNTERPARTS SO THERE IS A SYNCHRONICITY CAP THAT WE WILL ADDRESS. TOM: WHAT ARE YOU HEARING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT? MORE CAUTION, APPETITE FOR GROWTH IN A LESS RISKY PART OF THE ECOSYSTEM? HOW DOES THAT CONTINUE TO EVOLVE? LAURA: 75% OF LPS RE-UP THE COMMITMENT, A TESTIMONY TO THE TRUST AND OPPORTUNITY. GROWTH SUBSEQUENT TO A VENTURE FUND IS YOU CAN DOUBLE DOWN AND WORK OVER THE LIFECYCLE GIVEN THE DISTRIBUTION YOU WANT FLEXIBILITY TO SUPPORT THEM AS THEY GROW. REAL OPPORTUNITIES WITH THE BEST FOUNDERS. SO THEREFORE IT IS NOT ABOUT LOWER RISK BECAUSE WE ARE WORKING WITH FOUNDERS WHO WANT TO TAKE A HUGE AMOUNT OF RISK WITH ACCESS TO CAPITAL EVERY STEP OF THE WAY. TOM: YOU'VE BACKED SOME BIG NAMES. SOME WILL BE COMING TO THE PUBLIC MARKETS SHORTLY. WHAT IS DRAWING YOUR INTEREST? LAURA: WHAT WE ARE TRYING TO DO HIS WORK WITH GAME CHANGING FOUNDERS AND BUILD CATEGORY DEFINING COMPANIES THAT SOLVE PROBLEMS. FUNDAMENTAL TRENDS AFFECTING CONDUCTIVITY, WHAT WE ARE TRYING TO ADDRESS WITH THE FOUNDERS IS HOW TO GET THE LETTERS FOR GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITIES THAT WE SEE TIED TO PRODUCTIVITY BE IT INDUSTRIAL INFORMATION OR CLIMATE TECH WITH FINANCIAL EFFICIENCY AND DRIVING HUMAN CAPITAL. MANY INVESTMENTS SEEK TO DRIVE THOSE PROBLEMS AND YOU HAVE SECOND ORDER, SECOND DIFFERENTIAL, SOLUTIONS THAT HELP US TO GROW LIKE AI, DATA AND AUTOMATION. TOM: AS GENERATIVE AI SUCKED AIR OUT OF THE ROOM OR OPENING UP OPPORTUNITIES? LAURA: WITH EVERY PARADIGM SHIFT YOU GO THROUGH A HYPE CYCLE AND THERE IS NO QUESTION WE HAVE BEEN DEEP IN THE HYPE CYCLE BUT WHAT IS HEARTENING TO SEE IS THE ADOPTION ACROSS ALL COMPANIES AS YOU WOULD EXPECT, A PARADIGM SHIFT IN TECHNOLOGY. IT IS FAIR TO SAY YOU CAN SEE THE CAPITAL THAT WENT INTO AI AND REAL MEANS, THE NEWS OUT OF ARE NOT AND REAL APPLICATIONS. TOM: INDEED, LAUREN -- LAURA PARTNER AT ATOMICO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. PLENTY MORE COMING UP, THIS IS BLOOMBERG. TOM: WELCOME BACK. YOU ARE WATCHING BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK: EUROPE. HAPPY MONDAY. LET'S REFLECT ON THE PAYROLLS AND JOBS DATA OF FRIDAY BEFORE THE INFLATION PREVIEW OUT OF THE U.S.. THE BREAKDOWN IN TERMS OF JOBS DATA, SERVICES AND GOVERNMENT JOBS EXPANDING. HERE IS WHERE THE PRESSURE CAME N/A THROUGH WITH THE JOB SPRINT BELOW ESTIMATES. MANUFACTURING IS THE BLUE SEGMENT, CONTRACTING AND WE HAVE SEEN PMI'S IN MANUFACTURING DIVEST. YOU ARE SEEING THAT IN THE JOBS DATA. REMEMBER, EXPECTATIONS WERE YOU GET A PRINT OF 165,000. WHISPER NUMBER WAS 140 AND THAT IS WHERE THINGS LANDED. IT WAS A MISS IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL PAYROLLS NUMBER AND THEN YOU HAD FOMC MEMBERS LIKE CHRIS WALLER SUGGESTING NO RUSH TO GO 50 BASIS POINTS. 25 BASIS POINTS WAS PRICED IN BY SEPTEMBER BUT IF YOU ARE EXPECTING A CUT, IF YOU'RE LISTENING TO CHRIS WALLER YOU WILL BE DISAPPOINTED. MARKETS EXPECT PRICING OF 31 BASIS POINTS. LET'S FLIP THE BOARD AND HAVE A LOOK AT THOSE MARKET EXPECTATIONS BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK OUT TO JULY OF 2025 YOU ARE LOOKING AT MARKETS PRICING IN OVER 220 BASIS POINTS. MORE THAN TWO FULL BEING PRICED IN BY THE MARKETS INTO NEXT YEAR. WHERE DO YOU LAND IN TERMS OF DEBATE OR BOND MARKETS? EXPOSURE TO THE FRONT END OF THE TREASURY GIVEN WHAT IS BEING DONE, MOVES INTO THAT PART OF THE CURVE, YIELDS UP MODERATELY. LET'S THINK ABOUT WHERE THAT LEAVES US BEFORE THE CPI PRINT. FOCUS IS MORE ON JOBS BUT THIS IS THE MOVE. CHRIS WALLER, THAT COMMENT THAT WE DON'T SEE THE U.S. HEADING FOR RECESSION WAS ECHOED BY JANET YELLEN SAYING SHE DOES NOT SEE RED FLAGS. LET'S LOOK AT THE RED FLAG FOR CPI, THE NUMBER DROPS ON WEDNESDAY. 2.6 PERCENT YEAR ON YEAR VERSUS 2.9%. CONSISTENTLY YOU HAVE BEEN HEARING FROM FOMC OFFICIALS THAT THEY ARE FEELING MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE SUSTAINABLE NATURE OF THE MOVE CLOSER TO THAT 2% TARGET ON LAOIS AND AND A NUMBER OF FOMC OFFICIALS HAVE SAID THE FOCUS HAS SHIFTED FROM INFLATION TO THE JOBS DATA. LATER ON, THE CEO OF LEGAL AND GENERAL WILL DISCUSS THE WILSON REPORTS.