2024 Election Map If Polls Underestimate Trump AGAIN! (Trump Wins BIG)

just days after the heated debate between Donald Trump and kamla Harris the political landscape has shifted dramatically Trump clearly won the debate breaking down Harris's arguments and gaining new momentum in the race Trump's strong performance has boosted his support and now the 2024 electoral map is looking different from what many expected in this video we're diving into what the 2024 electoral map could look like if the polls once again underestimate Trump's support just like they did back in 2020 let's take a closer look at Wisconsin as an example in 2020 polls forecasted an 8.4% win for Biden but when the dust settled his victory margin was a mere 0.63% today we're going to analyze the current 2024 polling and adjust for the errors seen in 2020 to give you a clearer picture of where kamla Harris and Donald Trump stand assuming the polls continue to misjudge Trump's base we'll start out west and gradually make our way across the country beginning with Washington in the last election Biden's numbers were overestimated by 3.8% in this State at present kamla Harris is leading in Washington by 11.3% but adjusting for that previous overestimation she may be on track to win the state by only 7.5% now things get more interesting in Oregon where Harris has just a five-point lead in the only head-to-head poll against Trump in 2020 Biden's support in Oregon was overstated by 5.2% if that polling error repeats Trump could actually flip the state winning by a razor thin 0.2% turning Oregon into a tilt Red State as for California Harris's home state the 2020 polls were remarkably 100% accurate nailing Biden's 29o Victory with Harris currently holding a 24.5% lead California is poised to remain a deep blue stronghold standing as the only solidly Blue State along the Pacific coast let's turn to Nevada the first competitive State on the map which hasn't voted Republicans since 2004 currently Kam Harris holds a narrow lead of 0.6% but that's unlikely to be sufficient in the last election Donald Trump was underestimated by nearly three points and if we account for that margin of error he could be poised to take Nevada This Time by a 2.3% lead although the state will barely lean red it's notable given that Republicans haven't secured a win here since 2004 and Trump lost by 2.4% in both of the last two elections if he pulls this off it would Mark a significant Victory Nevada is becoming increasingly favorable for republicans in 2022 the state elected a republican Governor signaling potential future GOP successes Trump's position is even stronger in Arizona where he currently leads the polls by 1.6% of the eight most recent polls only one conducted by Fox News shows Harris ahead in 2020 polling overestimated Joe Biden's support in Arizona by 2.3% so adjusting for that error Trump is on track to win the state by 3.9% this time around Arizona narrowly flipped to Biden in 20120 but Trump could reclaim it mirroring his 2016 margin Arizona is shaping up to be a more solid idly prot Trump State meanwhile over in Colorado the first poll has been released kamla Harris leads by 15 points making Colorado one of the few states where Biden was slightly underestimated in the previous election by just 1% Biden was expected to win the state by 12.5% but he ended up with a 13.5% margin at the moment kamla Harris holds a 15-point lead in the only poll available but it's not a particularly reliable one morning consult known for its left leaning Tendencies conducted the poll with a fairly small sample size however given the data we currently have it appears that Colorado is firmly in the blue camp in New Mexico Republicans were slightly overestimated by 0.1% a margin too small to have much impact on the overall polling average especially considering there's only one poll on record that poll shows Harris with a solid 10% lead and with the adjustment her Advantage edges up to 10.1% this keeps New Mexico firmly in the likely blue category though both this state and others in the region may become more competitive as the election draws closer in Texas with its crucial 40 electoral votes the stakes are much higher for Donald Trump and any Republican nominee Texas has long been a GOP stronghold and without it the path to Victory becomes far more challenging for the party in the 2020 election Democrats were closer to flipping Texas than they had been in decades with polling suggesting Joe Biden would lose by just 1.1% if that had happened it would have marked the closest contest in Texas since 1976 the last time Republic an lost the state for nearly half a century Republicans have consistently won Texas by at least two points or more today Donald Trump holds a 7.3% lead but given that polling in 2020 underestimated him by 4.5% his adjusted lead could grow to 11.8% this makes Trump the overwhelming favorite in Texas signaling that the state will remain securely in GOP Hands Across much of the central us including Utah Wyoming Idaho Montana North and South Dakota and all of Nebraska except its second district Trump is expected to dominate Alaska too is projected to stay solidly Republican while Hawaii is a safe Democratic win for kamla Harris these states are unlikely to be contested reinforcing the regional divides between the two major parties before I continue only 17% of you guys are actually subscribed so please take the time to subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November turning our attention to the Midwest this region is not only pivotal in national elections but also notorious for its polling and accuracies this was strikingly demonstrated in 2016 when Hillary Clinton made just one visit to Wisconsin in the last 6 months of her campaign the prevailing belief was that Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania solid Democratic territories for nearly three decades were safely inter column yet in a shocking twist Donald Trump won all three a decisive factor that secured his victory as we look ahead to 2024 Trump's path to the presidency hinges on winning just one of these Battleground states to essentially shut Kel Harris out of contention let's let's begin with Minnesota in the last election polls overstated Democratic support by 2.1% currently Harris holds a 5.5% lead in the state's polling averages even while being paired with Minnesota's own Governor Tim Waltz who remains fairly popular however accounting for historical polling errors Harris is projected to win by a Slimmer margin of just 3.4% putting Minnesota on shaky Democratic ground in Iowa poll's drastically underestimated Trump by about 7 to8 points in 2020 although there are no fresh polls for 2024 given how far off the polling was last time Iowa is expected to remain a solidly republican stronghold meanwhile Illinois is expected to lean Democratic and Indiana is safely Republican in Wisconsin where Joe Biden's support was significantly overestimated by roughly 8 percentage points in the last election kamla Harris now holds a slim 1.8% lead her Advantage partly stems from Wisconsin's proximity to Minnesota the home state of her running mate however this narrow lead is a red flag when compared to historical data in 2016 Hillary Clinton led by four points in September but ultimately lost the state similarly in 2020 Biden was ahead by 6.5% but only narrowly eak out a win capturing just a fraction of the projected margin with Harris currently up by just 1.8% it's clear this won't be enough to secure Wisconsin adjusting for the 2020 polling error Donald Trump is on course to win the state by a substantial six-point margin making Wisconsin a likely victory for him in Michigan Democratic support was overstated by 5.1% in 2020 and today's polls show Harris with a modest 1.2% lead however this is far from reassuring compared to where Clinton stood in 2016 and Biden in 2020 Harris's margin looks fragile when adjusted for prior errors Trump is poised to win Michigan by 3.9% placing the state firmly in his column Ohio's polling discrepancies were nearly as large as Wisconsin's in the last election Biden was overestimated by 7.2% with polls predicting a close race that ended in Trump winning by eight points today Trump leads by 9% and factoring in past polling errors he is on track to win Ohio by a dominant 16.2% making it solidly red alongside Iowa Pennsylvania presents a much tighter race with polls currently showing a tie in 2016 Clinton had a 6.2% lead at this stage and Biden was up by 4.3% in 2020 yet both fell short of expectations Clinton lost and Biden barely clinched victory with the 2020 polling error in mind Trump now seems poised to flip Pennsylvania winning by an estimated 3.5% in the Northeast Most states are expected to stay firmly in Harris's Camp Vermont Massachusetts Maryland the District of Columbia and Maine's First District are all solidly blue States like Connecticut Rhode Island New Jersey and Delaware will likely be more competitive but still lean Democratic while main second district is projected to be likely red starting with New York also known as the Empire State it's the first state will examine in New England Joe Biden was expected to win New York by 30 points but he ultimately secured a 23-point lead considering kamla Harris currently holds a 14-point lead according to the latest available poll her margin could shrink to 7.7% if we account for the previous elections polling error the empire state will likely remain a solid Blue State just above the seven-point mark in New Hampshire polling overestimated Democratic support by 3.7% Kam Harris has a five-point lead but with an adjusted margin she would win by only 1.3% making New Hampshire a highly competitive State back in 2016 Donald Trump came within half a percentage point of defeating Hillary Clinton here so once again New Hampshire is poised to be a closely contested slightly Blue State finally in Maine where two votes are determined by the Statewide result Joe Biden was overestimated by 3.9% in 2020 he was predicted to win by 14 points but one by nine the most recent polls show Harris with a 13-point lead though there are issues with some of the polling including one University of New Hampshire poll that puts her ahead by 17 adjusting for previous election errors would give Harris a 99.1% margin this would still surpass Biden's performance which is quite remarkable given that Biden won Maine by three times the margin Clinton achieved in 2016 Clinton won by 2.9% while Biden claimed Victory by 99.1% in summary while Clinton barely won Maine and Biden significantly improved on her margin Harris is likely to land somewhere between their results though probably not as high as nine points to wrap up the southeast map most of these states are solidly Republican Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Kentucky West Virginia and South Carolina all of which are expected to easily support Donald Trump in Virginia kamla Harris currently holds a 5.3% lead but considering that Biden was overestimated by 1.7% in previous polls her Advantage May shrink to around 3.6% Virginia is definitely a critical state to watch as could become highly competitive in the next 8 weeks in North Carolina Trump was underestimated by 3.3% in the last election polls suggested he would lose the state but he won it for the second time this time he's expected to claim a third Victory leading by 0.1% in the average polls and with adjustments he is projected to win by 3.4% positioning it as another comfortable lean red state for Trump moving to Georgia this was one of the more accurately pulled swing States Biden was overestimated by just 1% with Pro indicating a 1.2% win though he ultimately took the state by only 0.2% currently Trump is leading by 1.3% which adjusts to a 1.3% lead Georgia along with Oregon is likely to lean Republican though Harris remains a favorite for the sake of this analysis Georgia is temporarily categorized as a tilt Red State further emphasizing how Trump is consistently underestimated lastly in Florida where Biden was also expected to win based on polling similar to North Carolina he fell short he even performed worse than Clinton did in 2016 while Clinton lost Florida by 1% Biden's loss was nearly 4% polls had overestimated Biden's support by six points given Trump's current 6% lead the adjusted margin indicates he could win Florida by as much as 12% this time around securing the state for the third time so if polling errors mirror those of four years ago Donald Trump could be on track to secure 320 electoral votes with kamla Harris trailing with 218 thanks for watching be sure to like comment and subscribe for more election content leading up to November