All About The Data $HD $NVDA $TSLA | PreMarket Prep

well on mornings like this everyone is tuned in for one thing and that's coming at 8:30 we've got PPI data which should give us some more insights into what the fed's next move is going to be we'll get our first Clues into what inflation did in July we're GNA have more tomorrow with CPI coming out we've also got some big earnings Home Depot to talk about a pretty big Twitter space last night with uh you know Elon Musk and Donald Trump will'll discuss that as well let us know in the chat if you tuned into that pretty uh you know pretty quiet Monday yesterday as terms of in terms of volatility at least compared to the uh the prior Monday but we'll still break down the price action you had a few dips a few rips all to finish pretty much flat let's go ahead and get the show [Music] started welcome to benzinga's pre-market prep [Music] this is a b tile puppy here it's all about execution Styles and strategies alrighty Traders and investors let's go ahead and do a quick rundown through the major indices you got the S&P 500 trading up about 3/10 of a percent your Q's trading up a little bit more than that at around 0.45% the Dow Industrial Average slightly weak this morning we'll discuss that how's the old Bitcoin doing Bitcoin is trading higher a little bit still right around that 59,000 level so hanging out around there at that 60,000 uh level let's go ahead and bring in Dennis Dennis how we doing this morning we're doing good we're doing good and we have somebody returning well I was going to askay Affairs did you watch the you know like Olympics closing ceremony on Sunday anything like that I didn't watch Clon and ceremonies but I watched a lot of events but you know that we've got somebody that was in the events here to over the weekend and on Monday and he's coming in here right now all right well without further Ado Joel Lei welcome back to benzinga's pre-market prep after a triumphant run at the at the Michigan Olympics there he is look at this blink I got the blink blink uh I got the there you go eat your heart out Michael Phelps eat your heart out baby what was what was what was the final rundown the countdown how what what did you get uh four gold a silver and a bronze and the silver and bronze I I dogged them I dogged those Aces because I had to rest myself I had to arrest myself I can't well you got to let resting for the big events you got to let other he felt bad winning so much he had to let some other people win some stuff you hear the cling cling cling so you have four gold a bronze and a silver yes holy mackerel this guy is a swimming machine yeah and and then this is it well this qualifies me for the real Olympics right there baby blink blink and don't put this on senior over 80 Olympics right there okay uh 60 to 64 there was some 50y old think to the to 64 category I'm 60 I'm 60 yeah no I know yeah yeah and uh just just last thing no more bragging two State records wow two state record 100 50 free 100 free not even my best times not even my best times yeah yeah took a little nap when I got home but uh anyways that The Show Must Go On hopefully the olymp hopefully the international Olympic Committee doesn't come you know try to drug test you or or anything like that we don't want we don't want them trying to take away those those metal oh and I I didn't wear my my fastest suit or wear a cap that that's like you know that's why I you gotta save those you had to give them a chance you had to give everybody else a chance and we got gold making new highs that gold is worth so much now Joel because after the show you're melting it down he's melting them down after the show it's worth too much money just wanted to show you I'm taking these melties down though and get this value here because this Gold's worth a lot of money wow congratulations Joel is there videos is there videos of this stuff did anybody take a video I want to see videos of this I no I did there's got to be videos out there find senior senior swimming Olympics here in Michigan find also for full disclosure um because I know some people here file swimming there there are much faster 60y olds in the Nations this is and this is the final thing this was like the triaa of swimming this was not the major leagues this was like the Triple A but I figured it was close to my house I wanted to do it so we'll get ready but anyways we've got some major major breaking news here major breaking news we've got CH Chipotle CEO is leaving and going to Starbucks right now not joking CMG CEO to depart for Starbucks Starbucks is naming Brian niichel as their chairman and chief executive officer wow this is huge news there is an absolute killing of Chipotle right now and an absolute buying across the board of Starbucks here right now man those activists they work fast here AB they work fast they don't play games that's what I was thinking of these guys had to know this this is unbelievable that's a starboard's the smartest investors ever oh that's up 10% they just took a stake they're like it's what's gonna happen we're gonna get the Chipotle CEO give them a call right now boom holy mackerel CMG trading down 9% eight 8.3% it's moving fast here folks and St no 10% chipot lays down 10% now wow Starbucks is up 11% so everything in this is just a opposite but Chipotle goes down Starbucks goes up it looks like this is huge news so yeah Chipotle named coo Scott Boatright as interim CEO following Brian Nichols departure to lead Starbucks uh Jack Hartung to remain as president so I mean it looks like Chipotle is still uh you know still going to have some of the same guys that were helping run the company just not this Brian Nichols guy which I mean I assume it looks like he's done a pretty good job if the market is if the if the Market's that worried about him leaving because I mean my my okay so if Chipotle yesterday was a 70 or an 80 billion dollar company 76 billion dollar market cap the CEO leaving makes that makes you know brings that down more than billion why I mean they still selling the same burritos I don't think there's going to be that many people out there today they're gonna say I'm not going to Chipotle today because they have a different CEO it it doesn't matter they're all they're looking is we've said it before Chipotle has been one of the best run companies out there I mean besides the last month or two when the stock has come off here you just look at the performance I believe he's been in there for four or five years um just going for you can look it up Chad will look it up but I think he's been in there for a while there nickel and this is just huge news for Starbucks obviously to go grab one of the best CEOs out there and chipotle losing them so I mean this is just you know huge news here down 8. % I mean there's always this algo you know boom you know they can't help themselves I I don't know if I'm chasing it here there no way you're chasing I'm not I I would be as opposed this might be a good spread to put on Dennis and I want you to do the bu Chipotle right now in short Starbucks I'm not doing it okay all right but you know what it's blown out if you had it the other way you're crying right now I never really thought about par trting Starbucks and chipot like but here you go one's up 10% the other one's down 10% so all of a sudden this guy this guy Brian is going to get people to pay five bucks for a cup of coffee instead of 10 bucks for a burrito or he's going to lower the prices of the coffee maybe that's what he needs to do figure out the mergin figure out better oh man trim the fat figure it out get the coffee prices down a little bit because Chipotle is not expensive I've only been there a couple times but Chipotle is always reasonable right AB Chipotle is not expens I it uh Sunday night very how much how much you pay like $12 for a big old damn good price for supper now a big bowl and a bag of chips with it it was good um I'm just curious because so I know I know one of the things Chipotle has done really well and did really well throughout the pandemic was its online ordering that like well all all not all there but a lot of other restaurant stocks and and you know restaurant companies suffered through the pandemic from lower foot traffic Chipotle actually did pretty well CU they pivoted really well to like online ordering just come pick up you know they weren't doing a lot of in in in restaurant eating and stuff people were just doing online so I wonder but I think I think Chipotle or uh Starbucks already does that pretty well like I know a lot of people that use the Starbucks mobile app and all that stuff so I would I would guess without reading into it that that would be the area where this CEO has done a really good job that Starbucks is trying to model after like the online ordering and stuff like that but um I guess we'll see what his new initiatives are going to be at Starbucks because again to me it feels like an overreaction at least on Chipotle's because Starbucks has already been beaten down right like Starbucks's stock needed something to help turn it around maybe this is it people coming in buying at a lower valuation Chipotle the opposite has already been beaten down now going down another 10% I again to me it feels like an overreaction Dennis Dennis that spread on the closing price was 21 okay and now it's 15 you got to come up with a trading strategy for that it's gonna come in it's gonna come in maybe not come nothing has to do anything but okay nothing have to it can come in like I mean you're gonna come it's 20 it's one up 20% 10% up one 10% down the other so it's a 20% blowout there that feels like an overreaction to me too I think we're all in the same boat this does feel like an overreaction but Starbucks is really beat up and chipotle is really you know kind of hated all of a sudden you know the stock is not and it's been struggling to Rally it's had a nice rally and then boom but Chipotle let's just go to the technicals 4798 was the wash out low when everything was washing out on that Monday morning it's over it's over 50% yeah well no but You' got support at that low 50 you know 50 Area it's not surprising that they bought it there am I coming in here and buying spotle this morning short in Starbucks probably not these are hard things and and the other consideration if you're doing one trade if you're a one trade Trader you can always always put on some crazy movers because you can babysit them stocks like this require babysitting when they are moving so quick and write this down folks if you're trading One stock only I only Trade One stock at a time you can trade some fairly crazy active stocks a lot of nights I'm trading a hundred different stocks like a hundred overnight trades I can't have stuff like this on because it requires too much of my attention and then I can't focus I need slower trades I need stuff that's away from the news I need stuff that isn't moving 10% One Direction and down 10% the other direction I mean these are stocks require babysitting and tape reading so I mean if you're good tape reader you figure stuff out like this 50 was a logical place for Chipotle to bounce I'm not surprised it bounced right of 50 big psychological whole number you have three lows back in July I'm not surprised it there but it's leaking here right now to retest it Starbucks here popping up I mean give us a technicals Jo you're in a gappy area here this is what I'm gonna do this is what I'm gonna do I'm gonna say because you're saying I'm GNA say the key the next week or two is does CMG build a major base here between 4850 and people shrug this off and then it turns around like oh this isn't the end of the word we'll still CMG and for Starbucks I mean after you get the pump that uh uh oh man fill in the Gap here uh to 8766 if that's not good enough for you 8718 you haven't hit it there today I'd say this for this to continue I'd say you got nothing but Sellers from 85 to 87 so if it can you know digest all those sellers all the bag holders from here all the people oh I'm getting I never expected this I never expected this I never expect $87 let's just see 48 to 50 support and we'll see if you get resistance at 85 we're just not fans of Starbucks and online ordering your cost he's cold man they shut places down the ones around here are not even open all the time this guy's coming to closed stores he's coming to fire people I mean he's coming in there say I don't think that's happening I think he's just coming to just probably well we don't know what he's coming in what what his strategy is all we know is he did pretty well at Chipotle for a very long time did we get what year he started at Chipotle like what year he took over the CEO role maybe go hunt that down cuz we'll look at the stock performance of Chipotle under under his obviously leadership there and do you really want to be owning Starbucks no matter who's in there I mean did you see what Bros did I mean I know they're different companies saying I don't know I I think I ring the register here on Starbucks maybe maybe it's a ring the register moment yeah is this guy gonna make things immediately I mean how long is it gonna take I mean he's probably still cleaning out his office I mean you know it doesn't look like it's take very long Jo the stock already up 10% in about 10 seconds after they announced it he's doing pretty darn good so far long Starbucks a short CMG nich has been the so are you gonna put it on you gonna short Starbucks today into this Gap and buy CMG I mean it may not be a bad call it's leaked it's now at the lows we're at the lows of the highs so we're actually can put it on better here right now Chipotle is now down 10.6% taking out the 50 support and Starbucks is now up 10.7% you can clearly see is the alos don't know how to trade it they just trade it Opposite yes one goes up 11 we sell the other 11 11 down this one starts coming back up so maybe there's an algorithmic trade in there for you folks just trading you is up one is down put if you want to put the spread on put in a bid this is not investment advice put in a bid at 48 in CMG and put an offer in at 87 in uh Starbucks writing these numbers down 48 Joel's paper trading he's got a paper trade going he's going long CMG at 48 if it happens and he's going short Starbucks at 87 I kind of like it I kind of like it all right there's 17 minutes of nonsense can we move that was huge breaking news so the uh the guy Brian Nichols has been at Chipotle as a CEO since 2018 so the last six years or so but uh look at the performance of the stock since 2018 bring up your monthly charts and look Chipotle was $4 obviously there was splits in there and it went to 69 the guy did pretty darn good that's like its biggest run that's like the like for years Chipotle didn't look 2014 20 look at the bottom rate chart blow up 14 15 16 17 18 Chipotle stock was going down this guy takes over and the stock did nothing but go up maybe it was the market environment where maybe it was the economy maybe there was other reasons for it but man you can't argue with that stock performance under his leadership that was pretty amazing up like a th% under his leadership it worth is he worth $1 15 billion because if you add the money that Starbucks has gained this morning and what Chipotle's lost it's been a$1 15 billion swing and I just don't know I don't know if one guy wor don't lie price don't lie let's don't lie Bal don't lie price don't lie I guess not let's move on from uh Chipotle and Starbucks we can revisit if we get some more crazy Movement we did have Home Depot report earnings this morning uh EPS came in at four bucks and 67 cents that beat the $4.50 estimate sales came in at 43 billion 43.1 7 billion that missed the 4337 billion uh the company raises the sales guidance from 154.32 to 158 uh so a little bit lower actually the guidance than the what was estimated but it still raised the guidance and that EPS Outlook was decent also a little bit below expectations so stock trading down this morning after all in all like a pretty meh report it wasn't terrible it wasn't great uh but did Miss on some of those guidance estimates stock is way off the lows and the Algos who were selling this on the print obviously do no technicals whatsoever because you had all kinds of lows back in May and June bring up the 90day and look where you've been May May June all kinds of buyers down there and the buyers reemerged here in the pre-market what's the low what was the low under 330 free market low is uh 328 and then I just a Ser of these lows uh they were I see a 328 low did want go as low as 325 but as you can see I mean just under 330 when you look at a stock like this you looking over an extended period of time the big boys are saying you know what I want to own 10 million under 30 and oh we we got very little here and then it popped off and then it came down here again and then it popped up again and then it came back down again so that is incredible support you're way off the low so as you go back towards that area your rebound High has been 34148 and the bottom of yesterday's range is 34213 we're only a buck 13 away from that so getting perhaps get a gap field Home Depot and then lows I think reports tomorrow very quickly uh getting a little bit of negative reaction not nearly as much you just got your 87 on Starbucks okay have I got they can't stop 8720 they can't stop buying Starbucks they are so hungry for coffee right now but I didn't get my 48 it's a contingent order oh you have to do one and do the other so you didn't get so you're not doing it cuz you didn't get get the 48 yes yeah okay he 48 on Chipotle yes okay all right wow big move though that's an incredible move folks wow Starbucks well you got your Gap Phill you got your Gap Phill there so there you go keep that in mind um on on AB let's go everybody my my my friend was over in Europe he says everybody over there is wearing the onon there's no Nike to be found anywhere and and you know what though it was an indicative of the earnings here the earnings actually must have disappointed probably bar too high how are the numbers uh numbers were okay EPS came in at 15 cents that missed the estimate of 16 cents so only missed by one cent there sales came in at 627 million beat the $561 million Outlook it reaffirmed or sorry the uh sales numbers so they beat on sales missed on EPS by 1 cent uh and then reaffirmed their 2024 Outlook so in instead of you know raising guidance or anything said oh it's going to be about what the same we expected last quarter so either way stock like you said the bar might have been set a little too high the stock actually popped initially off the earnings up to around 42 half dollars and then got down to around $35 a half before coming back up settling at around 37 and a half as we head into the open today last time they reported they bought the earnings like actually when they disappointed it was 6 months ago when they disappointed they bought that quarter and then last they they actually just bought it non-stop this is a stock that you do like to buy the dip on but one consideration here is that retailers that are trading 87 times for or 87 times current earnings it's only 42 times forward earnings we know that the market has been getting lukewarm to those names they've been getting lukewarm to high multiple retailers and the reason again is we're starting to see multiple contraction in some of the other high multiple retailers so them missing on the bottom line is not going to make anybody feel like I want to go and you know jump in this because it's going to be you know more multiple expansion Happening Here sales are fine I don't know maybe there was some adjustments or something you know that it's the earnings missed because the sales beat pretty nicely just consider that though one there is usually dip buyers and on on but because retail is the investors been lukewarm to the the high multiple ones right now I'm probably laying off ah boy oh boy I don't even know if I need to put much more comment on that it it's been a buy the dip stock off earnings uh disappointments and you much have you have a different economic environment you still have the high PE um let it put a basin I mean that's what it's done a couple lows in the same area you're way off the pre-market low so that b pre-market low 3350 I do see a lot of them around I'm almost tempted I do do I need a new pair of tennis shoes I don't know and I I'm not for the non-tie shoes okay I'm not a not except for my Sketchers not for non- tie tennis shoes and that that's what they have a lot of so let's see if you can establish support here on on it's definitely been going opposite Nike how is Nike doing did Nike find support in the lower 70s or not has been pretty look at Nike look at Nike look at that 7 come back up yeah that's a sleepy chart retail's been tough retail's been tough I mean xrt's come off the highs here too but just overall retail's kind of been tough like look at the xrt over the course of the last seven years I mean in 2018 we are 52 it's 72 this has been a huge rip roaring bull market that's not that great and if you bought in 2021 or 2022 xrt was $104 so if you you paid a 100 bucks for this you're down like 28% on your money in the last three years retail's been a tough place to be it's not just it's like you've got multiple contraction in the really high you know multiple names growthy names right now in retail and then you have value traps across the board in the low ones so retail's just been a tough place to be uh all right just taking a look at the pre-market screen right here now of course you do have Starbucks and chipotle both making their moves on the respective movers and gainers uh another stock I'm seen on the gainers which had a nice day yesterday smci and we can we can talk about Nvidia at this at the same time uh Dennis were you watching smc's price action yesterday I'm always watching smci two stocks that I actively trade and I do own a small piece I have a half siize position smci which the investment part of it's been a disaster obviously after the the stock split news and the stock went straight down on the stocks but caught everybody um this stocks just move Nvidia and smci are join at the hip I pair trade these things all the time uh was there specific anything like uh specifically that brought smci no and and it's it's it's led by Nvidia here right now folks don't look any further than Who Your Leader really is NVIDIA is now making you know 7 eight day high it's moved way away from that $91 low that we made on the on last Monday morning when they were selling everything um you start thinking like Nvidia 111 I mean obviously we're going to get some inflation data it doesn't affect you know PP PBI CPI isn't going to affect Nvidia as much it's going to affect other things but it's a higher beta name so I mean it's going to move here in four minutes so it's hard to do a technical on something before we're getting a major economic data point but major resistance up at 120 it's nine points away I kind of feel like you're a little bit in the middle of nowhere here you know there's room to 120 if you know the market starts going that's where I would be a seller if I just picked stock up I I don't it's tough Joel what do you think of Nvidia uh I think this is much more of a sustainable rally you know the way I mean you had that Spike low you did fill the Gap from the earnings you know split brewhaha right you filled it by good margin I mean when you got filled at 96 you might have been thinking huh that wasn't the greatest fill when it went to 9069 uh but you're well above it I mean we I just look for another ret I mean this is sustainable rally they're they're bided it up uh Invidia seems to like the 50% retracement so if you're playing this on the long side you have an intermediate Target I think it'd be this 116 area you know couple highs just just above it 116 let's call it 120 that's a big area so if you keep a nice lazy rally going in the snps I you don't see no reason and then we're starting to creep up on its uh report right it's coming up in three minutes yeah videos report though it's 28th I believe yeah 28th so two weeks from Tomorrow Joel okay so I mean it's more of a I I like a rally like this much better than you know even though this one was explosive everyone was getting rid because they were borrowing the Yen and they were buying Nvidia we all right we don't know that for sure you know obviously they were borrowing Yen and buying a lot of other things the classic car trade which we've covered already is obviously just to you know borrow in Yen and invest in US Dollars and we you know the the textbook would be to buy treasuries us treasuries and picking up the spread but we know money manag has been aggressive lately and you know in a bull market they do get aggressive and it wouldn't surprise me if some people were boring Yen and buying Nvidia which seems insane to me but you know that's trades maybe maybe it washed out Jamie Diamond said it was 75% done I challenged if it was all the way done but it looks like we've forgotten about it now so maybe the majority of it is done PPI one minute I'm gonna go to the background all right well Dennis goes wide I'll go ahead and give you guys a preview for those numbers so we are getting the uh PPI which is the producer price index for July the median forecast is for it to have uh grown two10 of a percent so0 2% in July that would be the same as it was in June uh we are looking for core PPI to come in at 0.2% it was previously 0% uh PPI year-over-year was previously 2.6% and core PPI year-over-year was previously 3.1% so uh if those numbers come in lower than those uh expectations it's another sign that inflation could be cooling it comes in hotter then the FED might be uh taking another step back in its fight against inflation so here we go we've got about probably 30 seconds until these numbers hit the tape okay we are just thrown in the 50% retracement that that takes you up to 54 and a quarter pre-market high that comes in at 0175 we had that dip we've had about a 20 handle rally off that uh I believe it was like a 4:30 5 o'clock dip elos are getting suited up here as I said 54017 5 oh there's your first move up your first move is up looks like we are through the high and we are getting a soft PPI number give me the number still waiting for it to come through on my line should be any second here at least they think it's soft he went up to 09 and a quarter there the people PPI month over month in July came up .1% versus the0 2% estimate so that came in light core PPI month over month for July 0.0 versus the. 2% estimate year-over-year PPI came in at 2.2% versus 2.3 it was 2.7 prior this is light across the board Joel yep I mean you saw the elos they got the news they pumped it up 4409 and a quarter we don't have much up in this area we have an in day high that in day high that's your 7day in day high at 5417 and a quarter uh that will be my next Target on the upside once we take out this 09 and a quarter uh but right now inflation coming down of course we get to CPI number tomorrow we usually get that number first but right now the FED Perfect Landing you know recession non recession this does not do much to take uh you know a uh whatever quarter half wherever you're at for the interest rate uh cut in September off the table so inflation cooperating here another another uh another positive Catalyst for the market yeah kind of I mean it seems like somewhat of a muted move Joel we're not like absolutely ripping higher but it is you know the market is interpreting it as positive how many handles are we up right now uh from the print I you know I like to look at where we I mean we had already were rallying hard into it and so let me go to the one minute yeah a slip you close that bracket at 9050 you had a minor minor uh flip down to 85 uh so overall you're right I'd say overall we're still 1213 handles uh above that 830 print in the S&P so I think that'll be a good number to keep an eye on they make their true decision whether they like this number or not but one thing on the upside here I mean you know you came really quickly down from 5600 to 5400 and it used to be markets went down a lot faster through an area then they go back up but in this rip roaring times uh you know you get the movement too 10 points off the pre-market high so maybe get some people thinking that you know a little bit overdone there but still looking at a sustained bid I'd say the the battle for 5400 uh continues here uh TLT let's do the uh let's look at the true serum here let's look how the TLT is trading uh did have the spike up over 90 7 Bucks it's leaked a little bit so a little inititive for you there keep an eye on your TLT you don't want to see that fade good old iwm once again a pop here a little bit of a fade so initial reaction in everything across the board is a little bit of a pop a pullback so quit profit takers and now look like the Bulls are just trying to reload here and see if we can sustain this 5400 and you do have some uh some buyers coming into Chipotle it looks like Chipotle uh oh wow just as I said that started selling it again it got it got it went from 49 and a half all the way up to 51 oh 49 is that the low oh 49 and a half Starbucks what Starbucks get your orders out at 99 in Starbucks man triple digits for Starbucks today this guy is going to come in he's already changing things over there pre-market High comes in at in Starbucks uh 89 even right now currently trading 8785 right it's such a funny market and sometimes you come in a day and contrarians are winning and other days as momentum Traders and you've got to like flip your contrarian hat your momentum hat almost daily it seems like if you're a day trader you've got to understand what kind of Market you're in we're a little bit of a Momo market right now I mean if you were seeing the snps roll over give it back here maybe maybe that changes its tune with Starbucks here right now but you're in this Momo thing and you know what Starbucks has been really beating up so it's and you got two activists in there you have so many catalysts like when you're thinking about shorting at 85 you got to think well one we got two activists in here so that was already a catalyst and now you got the new CEO from one of the best run re you know food chains out there you know so um I I just think there's so many reasons to not say if you're short an 885 you think it's back down to 80 you think it's going back down to 80 I I don't know on this news oh yeah yeah I i' do that all thinks that 88 you're getting some heat on this one Joel this how about how about you owe me the steak dinner right from the uh from because we started fresh on the steak dinners I have no idea where the stock is going long term but I'm just saying I'll give you 92 and I'll take 8 to to say your trade's already been lost you were shorting it you wanted to short at 85 or 88 I want it was a simultaneous order to buy I told you that don't when I when I tell you you're wrong no I'm not I'm not I'm GNA buy it at 48 and hopefully Starbucks will still be over 87 when I put the trade on all right it is 835 which means it's time for us to bring our special guest on of the day it's a T3 Tuesday and today we have Derek Olden Smith uh ready to join us so without further Ado let's welcome Derek back on benzinga pre-market prep [Music] all right Derek uh welcome back to free market prep how are you doing this morning good morning I'm I'm doing better as a five minutes ago how about you guys with the uh with the have five minutes the PPI getting you uh P yeah I'm I'm I'm still net long this Market um we got tactically we call it to be tactically very very long Monday week ago into that craft it obviously played out really really well and as we've come back into what I would describe as more neutral technical territory here for the market I have been reducing exposure and starting to hedge myself a little bit but I I still am net long so this light PPI maybe hopefully just a warmup for tomorrow we'll see um obviously it's helping me this morning though just being long still so and that's the thing here Derek it is just a warm up for tomorrow we know the big numbers coming tomorrow at 8 30 how do you like position yourself for an unknown economic number I mean if the thing comes in hot everything going to get killed is it just like a feel like you think wow you know the market kind of rallying up here it probably got a pretty good inclination that it's not going to be hot do you can you trade it technically do you exit some of these trades before the 8:30 number tomorrow just because the uncertainty of the number talk about the setup into tomorrow's CPI because we know that's going to be the real mover sure so I'm I'm a really big believer in the importance of game planning for Traders I think it's one of a few main keys to success in this business is to have good consistent game plans and then even more importantly have the discipline to be able to follow those game plans consistently over time and that's actually what tricks people up I think more than anything is all of a sudden they see their p&l flashing up or down or whatever the game plan goes out the window the discipline goes out the window so for myself I combine both day and swing TR in and if I have positions on where I have a specific game plan and there's a big economic number I understand that's a a major variable Factor that's going to affect the trade that I have ongoing but I'm a big big believer in just stick to the game plan that you have for the trades no matter what and my game plans are developed primarily based off of technicals in one form or another so if you are buying last Monday into you know vix 65 and extreme side extension on the downside for the market I mean that that was that event Monday morning it was one of the most extended to the downside I've ever seen the market get in my entire career outside of like the the covid situation where people didn't even know if there was going to be a world the next day and this was just because of of positioning right there was no end of the world situation that occurred on Monday it was just people got caught wrong-footed and let let led to a liquidation event so if you're still long from from Monday morning if you were able to take advantage of that the spies are up uh what we were at 510 and now we're at 5:3 650 Market's up massive so I know that the CPI is going to be a really big event but I'm not going to let that event just say okay I need to just sell all my positions here I have a game plan where you know I've trim and trailed on the way up I put money in my pocket and as I was just saying as this Market has gotten closer to its like daily 21 EMA which we almost touching now this morning it's been an opportunity to just sell more of those Longs put the cash in my pocket I I've also at the same time initiated a QQQ short an iwm short to begin to hedge myself out a little bit of hedging then little little bit of hedging at the same time and I'm just going to follow that game plan throughout tomorrow's move in the same way that I just followed the game plan through the move we just got five minutes ago uh and then there I mean last Monday when you were when you were buying what were you specifically trading everything you were just buying blindly just everything um you know when when you get a Vick Spike like you got and you get a market event like we just had uh correlations go through the roof so you know your stock picking is is always important but I would argue that your stock picking is actually less important right now 100% yeah get get the macro right get the market right and the stock picking part of it is easy a little bit of relative strength here a little bit of relative weakness there but we were just in an environment in June of the beginning of July where you had the iwm and the q's literally trading opposite of each other sometimes on a f minute chart because the SPX was so tight there was a huge dispersion trade there was massive amounts of positive gamma in the SPX uh record levels as a matter of fact and that created this environment where you could have the q's and the iwm moving opposite from one another but then you get a massive Vick Spike you get a a beish market obviously it's not a bare Market we almost got to a full Market correction and correlations just go through the roof so get the get the macro right recognize on Monday of last week that you need to buy and honestly it almost didn't matter what you bought I'm in 20 something long positions right now so it was just all right I'm buy you know I'll buy some of this I'll buy some of this price looks good where do I sign up for this price let's go about I just want to expand on that before he Chang the subject here Joel because it's such you know one it was a fantastic point he just made and I've made this point on the show for a number of years too when the vix spikes up correlations all move together stocks all move together stock is a stock is a stock so that's a fantastic point but I want to ask you you know and again I was doing the same thing on that Monday morning with my trading I was doing some buying I bought in Nvidia you know and I bought the open on Nvidia at 92 and then I'm biting my hand a little bit because I trade down to 90 and a half I'm like they're not going to follow through on this it was about 30 seconds of like uh oh and then it and then they started to come in and we know apple and everything but how do you like control risk in that situation because so many Traders obviously you know want to buy the dip and they want to buy the dip and we could kind of feel because both of us been trading professionally for a very long time that this time it was probably going to work but what do you do the situation that it doesn't work sure so obviously in markets if you've been Trading long enough anything that can happen will happen so for me those events like what we had on Monday pretty much every single time in my career that I've seen something like that which has been relatively rare it's been some of the best short to medium-term Opportunities ever but that's not to say that there can't be a situation where one morning I wake up and I think I see this incredible opportunity because it's vix 65 and then it's vix 100 and the market continuing to just drop and drop and drop and guess what what was a buying opportunity is potentially a better buying opportunity but do you even have the ammo left to to be able to do it so risk management is the key to success in the business and your risk management is found within the game plans that you establish for those trades so you need to understand you know what does your leverage look like how much sizing you putting on where are you stopping yourself out so what I said to the team very specifically on Monday morning a week ago was guys I really think that this is a buying opportunity but make sure that you have that signal because on the one hand and and it was very similar to uh early 2022 February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and we also had a similar huge gap down after like seven days of selling we were extremely extended to the downside and just instantly the stuff in the market opened we got bought up and it you had to buy like 930 and and 30 seconds this was a similar situation but you still have to wait for the signal because there was a a probability of early Panic selling and if you bought the market the second the market opened and you got 15 to 30 minutes of very heavy Panic selling of people who are just I don't know what's going on Market's freaking out and they sell it even harder you could still be in a lot of if you overbought and pulls down for you for 15 30 minutes so I'm coming in really bullish but I'm still looking for that signal where to buy and and I and I remember it in my mind's eye so well Monday morning almost instantly you had on the first five minute bar this little quick little downside tail in the cues and and I was like all right that's it you can let's buy verse that low and it's like all right if you get stopped out then maybe there's a panic stung situation coming in you you just reassess how you you can Reby when the next setup comes in and in that case you didn't get stopped out because that was the signal and it worked and you know the the low of the day was pretty much 9:30 on on the dot um on on Monday morning so you I I think it's also important to know when the Market's providing you more opportunity where where you should be more aggressive and increase your risk limits in one-off situations not every trading day is created equal certain days there's a lot of opportunity and then you have a day like yesterday yesterday morning I wake up I look at the market I'm like we're two days ahead of CPI we're one day ahead of a PPI the Market's now snapped all the way back to the space between the8 and 21 EMA flip a coin I don't I don't want to do much yesterday but Monday a week ago this is this is a situation where there is a ton of opportunity and I need to be able to take advantage of that and you increase your risk limits to be able to go for it to give yourself that second or third chance on those big opportunity days and then a day like yesterday you say you know what I got to sit on my hands a little bit more I'll put a little bit of risk on on an earnings trade or something like that to keep myself busy if I think that there's an okay opportunity but there's no way you can say a day like yesterday has the same amount of opportunity as a day like Monday a week ago yeah my question goes along right with yours Dennis and I'm just giving a hypothetical situation here in the preparation that you did for this binary event what was your game plan if it was a hot number and the S&S dro 50 handles do you have a priority today today right yeah so uh I did again start to short q's and iwm um ETFs tle Q specifically and the iwm ETF uh yesterday as part of a game plan where with where the market is technically on the big picture I can build into that on the upside into these bounces which is exactly what I've I've done this morning I got heavier on my short iwm and my short tple Q on the upside as I've lightened up a little bit on those Longs but I still am net long so I I just and and this is actually more based on Market technicals than it is binary event um but that's kind of the game plan so I'm I'm hedged out a little bit I'm G to make money if we move higher uh but if the number was bad this morning and we traded lower I've got those shorts on and I have a game plan to because I understand the percentage of my portfolio that is short versus the percentage of my portfolio that I'm long I will be piecing out on the upside into an up move this morning much faster than I'm going to be piecing out of my shorts on the downside if we were to break lower just based on the fact that the portfolio that I have is net long to to kind of minimize the damage if that makes sense and then obvious trades Derek how many trades do you typically hold was this a special event that you're buying 2030 stocks or do you typically have in your portfolio and any trading portfolio in any given time 20 or 30 stocks just curious you know how many trades you hold and how you manage those trades yeah I'm typically in like 15 to 30 positions at a time I'm at and I I uh those will be swing positions that's what I typically am keeping overnight I I'll have some extra positions that I'll typically day trade every day but all those swing positions have game plans where I actively day trade around the core swing position based on a pre reset game plan to create cash flow for myself as the big picture itself actually plays out would you would you ever try and use options in a in a situation for hedging or you just feel there's more bang for your buck with like the triple Q's or uh sqq I do a little bit also I I do both but I would say I'm probably 95% equities with what I'm doing straight equities and and and 5% options I'm I'm a prop Trader so you know the prop trading space is just a little bit different than the retail space I don't feel the need to be using options in the same way and have to deal with Decay and things like that when I can just get I just you know C call up the the people over here at T3 and say hey I need I need you to send me some additional Capital to my account because I want to be able to be more hedged or whatever and for me that's if you needed more C if you were getting hedged you wouldn't that reduce your Capital exposure it still takes up buying power okay um so you know for me shorting 100 shares of the cues versus buying 100 shares of the cues takes up the same amount of buying power out of the account but the risk team at T3 just that they can recognize that I'm hedged and they go okay it's not like this guy is just going all the one way you know long leveraged ETFs uh he wants to he wants extra Capital Access so he can hedge himself out from a risk management perspective they're going to give me that you know a th% of the time because Dennis denn is when we back in the bright days when people are asking for Capital it usually wasn't a very good sign well that's when they're just doubling down but again and bright obviously you know I traded with bright trading for a long time you know 20 22 years there at prop firm and everything Dereck is saying makes perfect sense to me too I mean you know the hedged positions they're always willing to give a lot more Capital when you're hedged because I mean Market tanks well your shorts going to be making money too so it makes sense that you're able to get more positions and then exactly what you were saying with options people always ask me why you trade options or make more money was always props so I it wasn't like I needed more money you know it's where you're comfortable so I'm and so again that's the advantage of going to a firm like T3 where if you're under capitalized you're coming with a $10,000 account well you probably got to get some options to get some exposure because it's just not enough Capital but you join a firm like T3 they can give you the capital you need you don't need options as much so and then you don't deal with the Decay and everything that dererk was just saying about I feel like I'm hearing myself speak when you're talking like that fantastic points again Derek thanks yeah you know especially when you had ax at 65 last week it's like there was obviously a great trade to try to short the vix but if you were if you were buying puts the Decay on that right now was was bubbles they get you they do all right Derek we have this uh you know QR code up on the screen for your prodesk virtual trading floor for this week do you mind just uh speaking a little bit about what our viewers will get if sign up for that I'll drop the link in the chat as well sure so the the prodesk virtual trading floor is really what my team of professional Traders have started to use since covid in Li of the old physical trading floor so if any of your viewers ever had dreams of of actually sitting on a trading floor this is pretty much the closest that you can get to that without physically being on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange you get to work with a team of professional traders who are communicating ideas we're getting real-time news in there large order option flow a turn of research every morning I do a a morning meeting for the team every day at 9:00 am an afternoon meeting for the team every day at 10 after 4 uh it's it's just a really great community of professional Traders and we're all feeding off of each other to educate ourselves and and hopefully make more money is there much pushing and shoving and fighting for position in the trading room as there is on the trading floor no no no there's not like people elbow in you and say hey look over there and then they jump on the broker and trying to get you to miss a trade or anything there's none of that no no no so so couple couple quick points on that you know first of all I'm primarily trading things that are so liquid I don't I don't care how many people are in there if if if I bought apple and everybody bought Apple you know made no difference we're not we're not moving you know hundred billion dollars into and out of I like to think I'm a big Trader but I'm not I'm not big enough to to to move Apple that's just not happening so we have a really collaborative environment and um I get what you're talking about those days of the old trading floor pre pre-co I did that you know five days a week at T3 trading groups trading floor for uh 10 years and you'd see the fights break out from the Traders it was never really because of positioning it was because somebody was rude to somebody or somebody was having a bad day you know I saw a guy take his chair and lift it over his head throw it at a Trader one time I'm actually talking about the real trading floor like the physical TR yeah he was talking you have to get no but I like it we used to have some pretty good brawls uh between the brothers and I uh what were their names uh I shouldn't mentioned their names uh but they used to have some pretty good fights but uh great Derek glad that uh always given us good input on the markets and uh problem cool and collected I will never pick a fight with you because what are you you're like a a boxing uh Trader I'm retired but I was a a two-time world champion kickboxer okay don't mess with what about just let me ask you about one one stock here nipg ninja and pajamas have you seen that stock at all no what's the symbol nipg it's a we had on a while ago yeah it's a new IPO add it to your list recent IPO okay looks looks tight here these last few days what's the volume look like little light it's fairly light yeah I don't know it's not your Apple it's not not exactly you know what scratch that thanks Derek we having we love having on all right thanks guys enjoy the rest of your Tuesday all right guys that was Derek Olden Smith again from T3 trading hit that QR code on the screen also the link in the description or if you're under capitalized you got to Jo join firms like that like that's how got started you know so if I look at my career you know I started trading stocks retail 96 to 99 then I joined prop for and Bri trading 1999 and then I was able to get Capital you know like you're coming in you you know if you if you saved all your pennies you got 50 Grand you're young you know Guy where you're saving you know all those tips AB you know that you're making you know serving you know you come into a professional firm like T3 they capitalize Traders it's not like retail margin they don't follow those same rules so can actually get some serious Capital to trade with and that's where you can start to make your living it's very very hard to make a living with a $50,000 account what are you gonna you know make double your account every year it's hard to do some people do it in Bull markets but then you get bare markets and it gets tougher to do so that's why I've always said you're young if you need capital and even if you're older and you need Capital join a firm like T3 that's where you get the capital to trade with and that's where you can make you know a decent living this well I would been did you see where home wait did you see where Home Depot went all the way back it's by the de Market Joel did you see on on let's on on came all the way back too Green Green Machine PPI bills I'm all out I just wanted I just want to say one thing man and I was not looking at this Home Depot at all but you and this is just you could do whatever method of technical analysis you want but if you have a stock that trades under 330 it comes back and a test a double top almost an exact double top at 35150 and 35153 just even if you don't sell at it even if you don't take any action at it take note at it because that is over that's a 23 Point move off an intraday low off number that is an incred now you're back at uh at 343 that is a incredible move bailed out by the number on on on on is green didn't take long to get by the dip i' be careful on this one it what's yesterday's high and on on that 4139 so that' be a nice area to get to and then on the downside here if this went red again I don't know I don't know if I'd want to hang out to see what happens next what Dereck said too get the macros right I mean this whole key to trading is L the environment that you're in this is a strong day for the markets it's kind of logical that they might be coming in and buying the dip on some big names like a Home Depot or on on if you got a day where the Market's trading down 30 40 handles it's a lot harder for an onon or a Home Depot to come back so I I I that's how I start my trading day folks you know why am I consistent day trading why am I consistent overnight trading it's because I have systematic approach to the markets where first I'm looking what kind of day are we having you know the first thing you g some P Futures what kind of day you're having but you know is this a buy the dip type of day it absolutely is because people are hungry for stocks there money managers getting to their desk and saying what can I buy I'm getting left in the dust here again all of a sudden they see a Home Depot down 10 bucks they see S&P futures higher they're like get me some of that I need to get more exposure you know get me in some of that cheap on on same story so always know your day and the type of Market environment that you're in um I was just goingon to say Chipotle kept moving up higher too uh Starbucks has too but it's a buy the dip type of day so Chipotle is benefiting from that as well at least in early trade everything could roll over the entire day could change at 935 940 roll over you know and then you've got to be doing adjustments but right now macro is driving the bus obviously you know we've got CPI coming tomorrow so that's going to drive the bus tomorrow so economic data is very important but just keep in mind that the macro picture is so important right now when the Vic starts to elevate Derek so many Fantastic points stocks start to trade together the vix is coming in so there's a little bit more of stock selection here but there's still a buy the dip mentality out there because a lot of people thinking I miss the bottom heck I think I missed the bottom uh light earnings week too right I don't know what we have for fed speak going on I guess the Atlanta fed president speaks I don't have the exact time of when he speaks but you know you can always get you you know your your fluctuations uh with those kind of things I see Baba's had a nice move here I just when you're talking uh that moved up uh very nice actually had a really good week last week so I just and I mentioned something about CH I saw something about China and something showing up the bond markets I don't know I just I just don't know why that stock fxi starting to move up a little bit so I don't know what made me uh what you said what triggered there but uh well you're looking up Bu The Dip I mean what's dip more than China stocks it's just been a disaster I've got a couple of them B and Baba in the longterm portfolios Baba back to even but B's been an epic disaster is there this moment in the Sun that these stocks are to go I mean here you got Baba it's freaking red on the day I mean relative strength Central not good here so again China's already traded overnight so they already had their session so there's a little bit of that but keep in mind you know it's just not not as simple as you know you've got to look at relative strength as well as signals here when your Stock's red on a day like this means you're not very good stock uh boy oh boy I'm just pulling up just the Yen because last week we were talking about the $68 it's calm down that's helped the market still try it's really interesting here because it really won't get into this gappy area this is the Japanese Yen Futures and Dennis what was the ETF that um tracked this I thought it w fxj that tracks the N fxy fxy fxy I got to remember that not moving so we haven't really had much movement in the fxy for four sessions here so the markets forgot about it if all of a sudden the fxy blasts off watch that's gonna be interesting you know so just keep an eye it's still there as long as it's fxy is moving up 10 cents down 10 cents nobody gives a crap fxy moves a buck in either direction everybody will give a crap so just keep an eye and and again it's not driving the bus at all economic data which is predictably driving the bus here today it's going to be about PPS going to be about CPI tomorrow but if fxy has an outsized move in either Direction one of these days it will move the markets all right well 9:01 a.m. eastern that's a wrap for us on premarket prep today Joel who do we got coming on with us tomorrow I have actually I have I have you get one guess only guess if you don't get this guess right you might as well clean your desk out oh gosh the pressure is on a go with uh Mr Blue putam former Chief academist at the CME Group you're my boy blue you're my boy all right guys thank you to everyone who tuned in to premarket wor the blue shirt for tomorrow for blue yeah let's do that Lions thank you coming man football season coming I'm worried about the I'm worried about the Lions this year well because we only can you know when we get to the you know one one like one quarter away from the Super Bowl Joel and we really were one quarter super bow it feels like and the oil is the same thing one goal away from the Stanley Cup it feels like we're pretty high we didn't hope we don't get worse need a little consolidation perhaps I didn't really know how to handle it though like tangent Center here just finish with the Lions so the people we can finish a show with the Lions because we're going to tangent over but I didn't really know how to handle the winning you know you're so used to losing as a lions fan it's like people were texting me and buddies were texting me and like oh Lions well I was like I don't even know how to respond because my normal response is you know of course you know we lose you know and obviously you know when we lost you know going to the Super Bowl and almost went to the Super Bowl you know I knew how to respond but all season you know we were just winning games and you know obviously gambling Dan there and you know and it's working out and it's working out it's working out it didn't work out it didn't work out there for yeah I didn't know how to handle it did you know how to handle the winning because the lions always just lose uh I'm a little bit he used to winning Michigan yeah I'm a little bit more I mean I Li's blood you know in me but I it just it wasn't from a when I was really young so I kind of I go with the flow because I you know it makes my son-in-law happy it makes everyone happy so know yeah makes happy yeah yeah be happy okay all right we are really late here yep go Blue all right we'll see you guys tomorrow morning at 8: am. we do have live trading starting up right after this see you guys tomorrow [Music]