Jaylen Waddle vs DJ Moore vs DK Metcalf - 2024 Fantasy Football

they say you don't win your league at the draft but you can definitely lose it and if the first round is the most important draft pick second and third round are not too far behind so in this video we're going to be comparing Jaylen Wadd DK meaf and DJ Moore three wide receivers that you might see on your board when your pick comes up in the second or third round you're probably debating on which guy you should be taking so I'm going to look at their path performance over the past three seasons we're going to compare each one I'm going to rank which one that I would take above the others and I'm Ron this is Ron FF B if you find Value out of this video man before we hop in I would really appreciate a like appreciate a sub let me know what you guys think I I'm I'm super down to hear your guys' thoughts on who you'd rather take maybe your preference on how do you like to construct your fantasy teams let's hop into this video man without wasting any more time we're going to get start this video with Jaylen wad uh we're first going to look at two Tung ofo as his quarterback so out of the three quarterbacks on this list I would say that Tu Tong ofo is probably the most accomplished right he's the most proven quarterback on the list although we do like Caleb Williams as a talent he's just he's just young right like we haven't seen him yet in the NFL although he's Dynamic Tua has already proven to us that he can accomplish a lot on the NFL I mean he led the league in passing yards last season and compare that to Gino Smith right who I I would say Gino Smith is the most likely regression candidate potentially positive regression or he might you know resort to what he looked like two years ago but I would probably bet against that and the next thing is that according to Mike Clay the Dolphins actually have a projected good offense very strong offense but importantly they only have a 51 Point differential over the course of the of the full season and he has them projected at being 10 and six on the season so what I glean from that is 51 Point differential is like middle of the pack it's not incredible but it's also not that great they're not projected to blow teams out the way that they were last season so that was a huge reason as to why Jen actually underperformed is that he had one of the lowest like second half points scored as a fantasy player Tyreek as well right Tyreek Hill was like the wide receiver one or wide receiver two in other formats Without Really producing a lot in the second half of gamees so going into next season if we do see like tighter games and and you know a game script that really favors passing and Jaylen Wadd I think we can see a lot of upside next thing is that t Jaylen W just as a talent is extremely Dynamic he's one of these after the catch monsters he's somebody that the Dolphins coaching staff and Mike McDaniel specifically really like um before they brought Tyreek hillan Mike McDaniel was chirping he was he was singing the pra singing Jaylen wd's Praises right they bring in Tyreek Hill he's been the absolute Alpha wide receiver for them since they brought him in but keep in mind Tyreek Hill is 30 years old right so potential injury concerns potential you know Cliff I don't know if that's going to come for Tyreek K this season he's still being drafted it's like the wide receiver one so the expectations that he's going to continue performing as he was but if we're in the business of risk mitigation and if we're in the business of just making decisions in fantasy based on percentages right based on just mitigating the risk of things happening wide receivers over the age of 30 it's just a higher risk profile right Jaylen waddle should be the beneficiary if anything were to happen to Tyreek and another thing Jaylen wad should see some positive regression in a lot of categories right so looking at his game logs we see that as a rookie played the full set you know played 16 games had 140 targets for 104 yards with 1,5 yards and six touchdowns not incredible but a really solid rookie season he was a wide receiver 17 and half PPR the next season he really pops off sees a regression in terms of targets because Tyreek Hill does come to town but nevertheless he finishes as a wide receiver 7even with 75 receptions for 1356 yards so an improvement there and eight touchdowns and he sees one of highest yards per catch yards per Target it was an incredibly efficient season by Jaylen Wad and then last season we see some you know major aggression he only plays 14 games he gets only 104 targets 72 receptions for a th000 yards he sees a lower yards per yards per catch at only 14 this time lower yards per Target at 9.74 and he only gets into the end zone four times so that's kind of the bulk of the aggression came from number one reduction in games played number two reduction in yards per catch and most of all reduction in touchdowns right he had half the touchdowns he had the year before so let's talk about some concerns so I already kind of touched on some of the concerns but one that has to do with fantasy football is that they do play Houston San Francisco and Cleveland in the fantasy playoffs and generally they have a pretty difficult strength of schedule we'll talk a little bit more about strength of schedule later when I compare all three players but that could be concerning Houston should have a really good secondary so San Francisco and Cleveland has always been a very Stout defense they did lose a couple pieces but I still do imagine them being generally strong right but if they're going to see Houston and San Francisco in weeks 15 and 16 you might not even get to week 17 where they do face Cleveland where that might be the the the weaker of the three next thing is that his health right so he's been dealing with injuries actually surprisingly he's only missed five games in the last three seasons I was actually surprised to see that because it seems like he's been banged up or hurt way more often right like I don't know how many times he's left the game early than to return like the fourth quarter or has been banged up right in the first quarter of a game and just played hobble didn't really produce the rest of the game seems like it happened quite a lot I don't know if anybody has any data there I'd love to see it and the third concern for jayen w is that there's just a lot of mouth de feed on this offense and they're only projected to score 399 points this year that's again according to Mike Clay Mike Clay does really fantastic projections every year um he seems to be the dude who kind of like takes the point or is like the the projection Setter in the industry everybody kind of plays off of him so 399 points projected to score as a as an offense is puts them at 13th or 14th so there's 13 teams ahead of them so that's Jaylen W's profile let's move on now to DJ Moore here are the good things about DJ Moore he's got Caleb Williams a very exciting rookie Prospect one of the better quarterback prospects we've seen come out of the out of college football in a very long time he can extend plays he's got lot of like momes Vibes to him DJ Moore is really talented he's a very talented wide receiver one he should be the number one guy there he should lead the team probably in targets and receptions and yards but I do think his totals will be down so he'll lead the team well it'll be the biggest piece of a smaller pie if that makes sense just rookies in general don't like if Cale Williams breaks 4,000 yards I think it would be like an accomplishment and pair that with the fact that he's going to be competing with a lot of other guys right so next thing is that he's had the highest targets per game over the last three seasons compared to the other two players at 8.2 targets per game so he's always been a very highly targeted wide receiver everywhere he's been now you can attribute that to the fact that Justin Fields really literally could not progress through his reads and he would just stare down DJ Moore every single time and that kind of like skewed his data you can also attribute it to the fact that there was really no other wide receivers with djore when he was with Chicago Darnell Mooney had that one season but for the most part not a lot of talent around him anyway let's talk about the concerns let's hop into that 382 total points Pro projected by mik Clay which puts them in the lower third so they don't they're not projected to be a very strong offense another thing I kind of already mentioned it he was very much tunnel vision by Fields he had a few really massive games to really boost his season so I'm going to throw up the game logs for his 2023 season and you can see week one only three points he did not help you win anything in that week followed by 13 then 11 then 23 then 45 followed by like five straight weeks of 79 73 eight fantasy points followed by another little three- game explosion with 19 16 and 23 followed by Duds right so he's a very much boom bust wide receiver I think it's not talked about enough that DJ Moore is truly a boom bust wide receiver now again he's got a new quarterback he's got Caleb Williams last season you know was was brutal but I do think they should be a lot better this season I do think he should be productive he should be the AL Alpha wide receiver but yeah he's got Keenan Allen and Odun two another factor that they should be really nipping at his toes right especially Odun now the problem with Keen and Allen is that I think ke and Allen is bad in terms of I'm sorry I'm not going to say he's definitely not bad but I think he's just a little bit past his prime supposedly he's overweight going into training camp I do think he's going to be like the third option but I don't think the team views him that way I don't think the industry views him that way I think it's just us fantasy players that view Keon in such a Negative light I do think he's still going to be very productive he's still going to be like a possession receiver he should just command the slot pretty much the entire season which which could mean that he's going to get a lot of work he's going to get a lot of targets so that's going to eat at DJ Moore's potential ceiling in my opinion then Odun I don't even have to really talk about him too much up and coming rookie he should be very exciting he should be like a big play threat which typically you know DJ Moore as you guys have saw from his past production he's very much boom bust what if Odun takes over that kind of boom right that boom potential for DJ Moore it that would maybe we'd get more consistency out of him but it might limit his ceiling another thing the last concern is that they're projected to have a the 12th rank defense so pretty low points allowed on again according to M clay low points allow projection meaning they're not they're projected to have a pretty good defense right and if they have a really good if they have a pretty good defense that could put them into good positions to score but it can also limit kind of these over unders on these games and you typically want to get players where if they're offensive players maybe their defense isn't that great maybe you want a lot of shootouts for running backs you want their defense to be strong and you want their team to be projected you know High win loss you want them to be in positive game script so that's just a small concern I would have preferred to see Chicago's defense being bad then there would be a lot more opportunity for Caleb Williams to just be slinging it and for DJ Moore to benefit from that and now we move on to the last gun the list it is DK meaf I'm going to start by saying DK meaf is an athletic specimen he's a he's an absolute physical beast and he's a massive Red Zone Target and that's why he has the highest touchdowns per game on this list of three players he's got 26 touchdowns in three seasons nobody else had over 20 so keep that in mind he he produced really well despite the fact that Gino Smith was pretty much a fart right he was an absolute fart a fart that you're trying to hide in public but just squeezes out explodes everybody hears it around you you're embarrassed everybody's embarrassed for you that was Gino Smith last season he returned to the fart like pumpkin that he's always been in my opinion I think that one season was a fluke where he was really efficient I think it's just like ciling cap right there's a reason nobody has really given him starting starting roles in his career right like I know they wrote him off and he didn't write back yeah cool story great story but I think there's a reason they wrote him off right and we saw it like I think he spoke a little too soon by gassing himself up so that's just my opinion let me know if you guys disagree with that maybe there's some data to prove me wrong but another good thing about him is that he's got no big injury history DK mcha has been fairly injury free his entire career but here this here are the concerns about DK maav Jackson Smith and jig is projected to be very involved this season they have been gassing him up in training camp the coaches he has the draft capital and he's a really talented Wide Receiver right don't forget he was like the top wide receiver drafted last season had a down year but I think it's because Gino was a fart and that leads me to the next concern Gino Smith can continue being an absolute fart like it's very possible that Gino Smith continu continues being a pumpkin and he doesn't turn it around I think it's more likely he doesn't turn it around um especially considering the emergence of Kenneth Walker they're expecting Kenneth Walker to be very involved and if Kenneth Walker takes a lot of Red Zone looks and takes a lot of those touchdowns that otherwise were going to DK and lock it and I don't know I just I can imagine DK meta's production you know his his touchdown dominance that he's seen over the past past Seasons I can see I can see him scoring like seven or eight touchdowns Max so that could be problematic right and the last thing is that he's going to have or he had a much lower Target in reception share last season and this is before jsn really or before the expected emergence he only had 119 targets which was much lower than usual um only 66 receptions and eight touch so the eight touchdowns really kept him as the as the 16th ranked half PPR wide receiver but o overall his volume has really decreased last season which is concerning right like we see a general downtrend in DK meta's career like you know 2020 10 touchdowns 1300 yards 83 receptions fantastic like Arrow's pointing up baby and then 12 touchdowns only 960 then six touchdowns 1,008 1,100 not ideal right not ideal what does this mean guys so we just talked about all three profiles I'm going to now rank these guys starting with DJ Moore and DK MAF they're projected to be the number ones for their team but both of them have young emerging talent that sh that are expected to be more involved that should be nipping at their toes right so d DJ Moore has Odun and he has Keenan right an old dude and a young guy nipping at his toes DK metf has jsn and Tyler Lockett an old guy also still potentially nipping at his toes so that's the that's the situation wide receiver ones with with dudes behind them my expectation is that Mo and metf have actually had their best seasons behind them I really do believe that they're 26 and 27 years old that's not crazy that's still very much in the prime of of why receiver's career but I do think that they kind of benefited from being like the only girl at the ball right you don't have to be the prettiest girl you just have to be the only girl at the ball and I think that's what Moore and meta had for a lot of season for a lot of their careers especially DJ Moore right DK metf had only locket who was also really great right they both produced very much together in tandem but now MF has an old yes an aging locket but an emerging Supreme talent in jsn probably one of the best sleepers this season for a lot of people so I want to introduce you guys now before I move on to Jaylen wad to this to this concept called yards per route run so Ryan Heath at fantasy points had a really great quote he said how does yards per route run help us it gives us a good hint of how well players might respond to volume changing it allow it also allows us to more meaningfully compare players across different teams with different overall Pass rates in other words it's a good approximation of overall ability and skill so he had this uh another part of the quote was that AJ Brown's 2.59 yards per route run with the Titans in 2021 ranked top 10 although he averaged only 13 fantasy points per game The Following Season The Following season when he was traded to the Eagles and no longer stuck on one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL he was a top seven fantasy wide receiver so essentially what the thesis here by Mr Heath was that yards per route run shows us how good a wide receiver is in a vacuum right based on how many routes they're running how many yards are they typically getting so they do that by dividing total yards by routes run and that gives you the yards per route run supposedly it's a very indicative prediction or or Stat in predicting fantasy success according to a lot of experts so with that in mind we're going to look at this chart we're going to look at yards per route run we see I've created this chart with a couple of couple rows here on the left games played 20 23 yards 20 22 yards 20 21 yards and then we got the totals here we got total taret targets 361 4177 389 so it goes jayen wild DJ Moore DK metf in that order yeah we see that I've colorcoded some of the things in terms of importance in my opinion with yards per route run we see that Jaylen waddle has one has the highest on this list at 2.63 with DK meaf having one of the lowest now I mentioned DK meaf had 26 touchdowns in the past three seasons giving him one of the higher touchdowns per year right and I would I would agree and I would continue to say that de MF has one of the highest touchdown equities or touchdown upsides on this list I still stand by that but however DK Mecha actually charted pretty poorly in some of the other per game metrics which I think per game metrics are really important because it shows us it kind of like takes injuries out of the equation right and and yards per route run for DF was poor yards per out yards per route run for DJ Moore was middle of the pack so there's ascendant right a 30 pretty much A3 difference As you move toward Jaylen wad we see that targets per game jayen W actually had the low targets per game so that is a that solves the volume part of the equation where if we increase volume can we expect these other charts or these other metrics to increase as well so that's the that's the hypothesis that's why I think out of these out of these guys I think Jaylen Wadd actually shows the most promise we see that in most columns Jaylen W has green charts so he leads in yards per game he leads in receptions per game but where he where he struggles and where I'm a little bit concerned about the the output of Jaylen Wadd is in the strength of schedule so strength is schedule in 2024 for wide receivers the Dolphins have the 26th rank strength of schedule meaning it should be a very tough strength of schedule for QBs are at 30 so very concerning seems like a t you know tough sledding might be ahead for their wide receivers and quarterbacks so for Tua DJ Moore actually interestingly the number one strength of schedule for wide receivers and for quarterback that's music to the ears of any rookie so with Caleb Williams coming in with so much hype so much potential and the fact that they have one of the easier strength of schedules for quarterbacks and wide receivers that's what you want to hear that's that's very like positive indicator now with that in mind I think Wadd is the young emerging Talent so as I mentioned earlier the other two guys have young emerging Talent nipping at their toes while waddle is that guy he's the dude who's nipping at the toes of Tyreek Hill and W already showed us that he can be productive even as the second option right so I think Jaylen W's best season is still ahead of him I think that he's he has a better quarterback he's in a better offensive system and he has a much higher ceiling because of that and keep in mind that if Tyreek Hill were to go down Jaylen W is instantly a top maybe 10 maybe dude dare I say top five top six type guy like we saw him last season really produce and that was a and there was a game against the Jets where jayen w Really popped off against the Jets actually I'll pull that up real quick Jaylen W against the Jets went nine targets for eight receptions 142 yards and a touchdown and he was being shadowed by S Gardner that game so absolutely incredible Jaylen W already showed us that he can he can be the wide receiver one for the team another thing is that the Miami Run game should regress negatively from a touchdown point of view they got so many touchdowns it's such a productive and efficient and effective Run game that it really took away from the touchdown potential of Wadd and Tyreek and everybody else on the offense so with all those things in mind I would rank them in the following order Jaylen Wadd number one because of the ceiling because of the quarterback because the fact that they're going to be in tighter games the the Run games shouldn't be as effective and shouldn't score as many touchdowns despite the fact that he has a lot a lot of mouth to feed I just think in fantasy football you want to go for ceiling man you don't want to get fourth or fifth place in your league you want to win right and Jaylen WD like this third round it's just if you pair him with another like high upside wide receiver like a Justin Jefferson like a Jamar Chase and then you swing around you get an RB in the second round then a wide receiver in the third and that wide receiver can be Jaylen Wadd I think that's the perfect makeup of a team that should help you win your fantasy Championship or lose it right I think the consistency issue might be the the one peg against Jaylen Wadd and then in second place I do have DJ Moore I think DJ Moore just with the metrics in mind the fact that he's always you know targeted heavily he he averages middle of the pack between the three and yards per game he doesn't have quite as much touchdown potential as DK meaf but I do think he's going to be on a better offense a a young exciting quarterback he should be the alpha wide receiver there it's just the reason I have DK meaf Frank third on out of these guys he's got the worst quarterback out of the three in my opinion his volume seems to be decreasing with you know the emergence of jsn and they're saying he's going to be so involved it's just a little concerning right like DK MEF has to really get you touchdowns the only area out of these three players where DK C is like you can make a compelling case so he should be ranked above these guys is in the touchdown department and what if that goes down what if he doesn't hit his touchdown projections what if he only scores five touchdowns right what if he has like just an unlucky season and he gets double covered so that's my list guys it's Jaylen Wadd followed by DJ Moore followed by DK maav I hope this video helped you guys I hope it was a little bit scattered I had quite a lot to cover but I hope it helped if it did help I'd really appreciate a like a sub and I'll catch you guys in the next video peace PE [Music]