Where the polls stand in B.C.

okay let's go to British Columbia another poll out of BC and another online poll that again is showing a close race almost identical to the research co- Poole we saw a little while ago from Le 42% for the new Democrats 39% for the conservatives 10% for BC United and 8% for the greens uh first comment leer if you're listening please please please please please clean up your charts for the BC polls they are very confusing they are terrible terrible we like the polls we like the data presentation give us yeah time to time to refresh that refresh It Anyway thoughts on the actual poll okay uh yeah so there's convergence but I I think we mentioned that when we saw the research co- Pole from about two weeks ago it was already August uh now that the online polls have caught up to the ivrs I really want to see what the next I V says uh will they converge was this just a timing issue or is there really a mode effect I mean the next ivr if we follow the trend lines and we do parallel lines between the two modes we could have the conservatives at 44 and the NDP at 38 in the next po we could see a conservative plus five or plus six and if that's the case we have a we have a very interesting issue on our hands but for now uh it's looks like to be a very close race between the two parties with the NDP holding an edge uh because of older voters and because of the the map the map is advantageous to the NDP um but uh yeah the the what do we make of uh the BCU now at 10% you they they can't win a seat if they lose 2third of their support right I mean the odds that it happens is are really really low am I about that I don't know how you manage to win seats when you're a big party and you go down to 10% like it's not when you're a small party that gets up to 10% because usually your support is concentrated in a few writings where maybe you elected someone or had some good candidates when you're a big party and your vote drops that much it tends to be pretty uniform there's not I would be surprised if if the if BCU has a brand that is strong enough and a candidate that is strong enough to win a ride on their own when things are so going so badly for them uh we'll see they still got a lot more money than a party with this amount of support should have we mentioned it last week they still get a public subsidy and their fundraising is okay it's better than the greens but I just don't know how you motivate people to vote for a party that seems to be dying um they still have a lot of liberal supporters if you the the breakdown from Le showed that uh a a chunk of federal liberal supporters are still sticking with BCU but that's also not a great party to be getting your support from because they're also going down I I just have a lot of trouble seeing uh BCU winning anything if they do it's it's going to be lucky vote splits that work in their favor I think I uh when I look at the uh the BC polling I mean you just I'm just TR to pull it up because I just thought uh when I look at the the last what three months of BC polling let me um okay so uh BCU was at 20% in November from Engish readed then 177% research go in January then 15% research go in April then 11% we go in June and now it's 10 or 9% according to the latest polls um when you look at the chart on my website you really can see two drops the first one is right after the Rebrand and then it was in the mid 20s and low 20s and the fall and then it started falling again uh this is I mean I think many voters really didn't like the the Rebrand but then it's it's more than just the Rebrand when you're falling that High I mean the conservatives Mr rustad whatever you think of him he managed to build a team that seems attractive I think they they will have some issues in a campaign because being a new party uh you have some opportunists in there that perhaps are not the team players they have a lot of unproven candidates but they could my projection right now is 53 NDP and 30 I want to say 39 or 38 or something like that for the the conservatives and one for the greens so considering the the threshold for majority is 47 that's that's a close result for dndp it's not the blowout that we thought would happen back in the fall when I I think I reached 80 seats in the projection for the NDP the vote splits are not there anymore with BCU and BCU out shout out to them they ask me to to switch the colors on my website I use the the pink and teal and they want to go back to Red it's as if they wanted to be liberals so they're teal to me and that's how they're sticking they're teal oh yeah you have teal okay I'm sticking with teal what do you have the conservatives you have like like navy blue it's a nice dark blue yeah okay yeah okay me too see they got the they got good color though you know red you shouldn't give up on red as a color there's been studies and show and uh they there was studies of boxers in the Olympics they wear red or or blue and disproportionately the the the boxer win wearing red W uh I think it has something to do with the color and and and how uh um people react to it so anyway um if you have red you might not want to give it up cuz it's actually a better color than teal and magenta but anyway I remember Joseph and galano from uh from Palace data wrote about the the in his BC poll I think it was in the late spring like respect your brand even though it has warts like the the liberal brand yeah in western Canada the liberal brand is not doing so well I mean it's it disappeared from Alberta and Saskatchewan but to choose between a centrus is liberal brand or completely new pink and te BC United which sounds like a soccer team like yeah so again the problems of BC United was not just a Rebrand it but it really didn't help and uh I just wonder I mean we'll get there at some point the election is on October 19 but what happens to a party when it gets zero seats like we rarely see this it really goes to zero and it was in power not so long ago that's the thing I mean the Alberta liberals going to zero okay fine they they had at most a handful of seats for many years but this party from power to almost power to official opposition and potentially zero you can't come back from that can you so no it disappears yeah it it it'll disappear it happened with social Credit in uh the 90s in BC uh because there isn't the pre-existing brand to keep it afloat the BC conservatives managed to survive in part as a party even if they were not a major party but you know they lost uh most of their seats I think it was like in the 50s um and then once in a while might win a seat or two and then in the 70s after the 70s never won any seats until we'll see if they'll win seats in this election but the fact that it kept on existing was in part because the federal party existed and the brand was there to keep it afloat but if BC United goes down to zero seats it'll just disappear all those people will go over to the uh to the conservatives and the ones who are you know dieh hard kind of Centrist liberals might get involved ferally rather than uh get behind one of the provincial parties I think that if they go down to zero maybe they'll have a leadership race and someone will come in and say let's go back to being the BC liberals blah blah but I don't know I think that I think I think this election might be the end of the party simple as that get get this the BC future party they have a federal cousin [Music] [Music] [Music]