WTA Guadalajara & Monastir Predictions - Danielle Collins, Ostapenko Look for a Title

Quick look back at the US Open hello welcome on back it's a new week here on betting weekly WTA we had the excitement of the US Open Championship last week and the week before and now we're back to normality with a 250 and a 500 in Tunisia and Mexico delighted to say joining me as per usual on usually on Sunday but it's on a Monday morning today is our WCA handicapper it Rory jaani good morning to you I've got you up nice and early Rory because I got to get a plan so how are you mate I'm not too bad yeah um oh the US Open case of what might have been I guess paa Bosa made the quarterfinals one of my picks but rather fell apart against Emma novaro uh yeah Arena sabalenka got it done it wasn't routine the final by any stretch but uh she won in straight sets in the end just felt that pigula could have won a set especially the second where she got to five3 but couldn't close it out but sabalenka I a lot of people have said she's still like she's improved a lot mentally I think she's still a bit suspect and I I just suspect a better player might have you know taken a set and then who knows I mean we there were flashbacks to last year's final when she lost to Coco golf but congratulations to her two hardc slams in a year that is some achievement and uh she's very close now to fion in uh the race for world number one and uh got some interesting weeks coming up we'll have the WTA finals at the end of the season um but uh yeah sabalenka closing in on that world number one spot yep cashed for me at 3 to one yes back better at 3 to one um were you nervous in the final at all no not at all I was I was I was exchanging WhatsApp messages with you during the final and uh I had no I just didn't have any even in the second set at 53 when she was three love up went to 53 I didn't because I know Peg is a bit of a flaky opponent I didn't really I wouldn't really fancy her to to think when she realized that she's going to win the US Open I think she could choke and I just think that I just thought her power hitting would be able to be too strong there was no way I thought Pula could go toe-to-toe there like that into into a third set I've never seen her Pula play like that and she was just taking the game to her and in the end the power just saw through you know what you're going to get with saan it's either unforced error or clean winners and um she when she went into a power hitting game then I thought well there's no there's no problem me never never never in the slightest moment did I ever feel worried and I promise you I'm I don't really worry too much about betting really it's what will be will be I think if you if you bet someone at 3 to one at the start which I did I bet her 11 to four as well and she's in the final and she's 10 on him running which he was minus 1,000 well is other times you you'd rather be on that position than the other position so I wasn't really I wasn't I wasn't really that honestly I genuinely wasn't really that worried and I think you might see her go on and win almost everything next SE apart from the French I think I think she's I think she's got some kind of belief in her now I've said it in the pre the interview the pre-show but I think she believes now that she can win at everything and she's got a good team around her and she's confident and I think next year she's going to come back she's going to be very very hard to be on these hardcore Services I really do because she's she's you know I know her she didn't play her serve wasn't great yesterday but now that she's got those two majors she's going to go upwards viral I believe but we'll see I mean that's all to come and I mean the race she's going to be very very excited to try hunt down eager stronck in the race for number one she want to ear the well race for number one there's a lot of incentives for her maybe not a lot of incentives for the players this week in in Tunisia and guad lahara in Mexico um it's always very hard isn't it like to to the tournament straight after a major it's so hard to really predict who's going to be up for it who's going to be up for the challenge who's who's going to be wanting to go deep in the tournament who just wants a break and this week is even more difficult because it's the end of the year coming towards the end of the year so and then they've got to go off to the Far East and you know lift their spirits up again some big torns as well so it's a tricky little one to gauge who's going to be up for this week so we're going to start off with a tournament in gu Lara but before we do that what's the sort what's your um opinion of that what's your opinion of players that are coming in after a major you know how their interest levels you know what sort of the tricky kind of for betters isn't it a little yes uh I mean a lot of these players this week I mean none of the top players in action um a lot of these players will have had early exits in New York and and I guess for some of them it's just you know a lot of these players don't really have much chance of winning a slam um and this is their big opportunity you know this is a 500 in guadalahara you've got a 250 in monaster um guadara of course was 1,000 last year it's been downgraded thankfully because it was a prettyy dreadful 1,000 um but you know you do have some good players in in the fields um well particularly in guad lahara not too many but you've got a handful of of pretty decent players in Mexico um and you know there's you there's still the small matter of ranking points up for grabs it's still important especially when you're looking towards future slams you want to be in the top 32 you want to be seeded so a lot of these players are going to be on the cusp here so thinking if they can get a good performance here they can get some ranking points they can get into that top 32 with a view to next season being seeded at the slams yep big incentives to getting to that top 32 there's a lot of tennis to go yet you know maybe for for next year as well but you want to be sort of getting into the high 20 so that might be a sort of a sort of a fit of potential winner look for someone in that sort of looking in that 20s and 30s I think I've read Rory's mind already I think he knows now that I've uh I've sort of established where he's going on this one on the out Market let's what's Guadalajara Preview are the conditions like I mean I I haven't looked at the weather forecast I've concentrated the weather forecast this week in cre in gree because I'll be flying there in about three hours I haven't actually looked on on my Google Maps on my weather forecast for the conditions in Mexico but I'm I'm guessing it's pretty good yeah uh we temperature temperature wise um it's good um High 20 Celsius around 80 Fahrenheit but we are due a fair bit of rain especially Wednesday and Friday uh Thursday could be disrupted too so we could get a bit of fixture congestion later on in the week um as far as conditions go Court conditions go last year was pretty quick uh it played almost identically to Miami which most of you all know is one of the quicker hardc Court venues on the tour both tournaments had 69.4% service holds uh by comparison the US Open we just had was around 67% um so so yeah it's it's one of the quicker hardc venues uh which will play into hands of of some of the players in the field um Elena ostapenko is number one seed I mean she can hit winners on anything if she's in the mood um but yeah I I think with the rain due later in the week there might be an advantage for players who are able to get a couple of rounds under their belts before Wednesday the the action starts today uh Eastern Time head across to the B Rivers going to get it time e time the action starts the day I think at 3:00 Eastern time is it I'm sure it's 3:00 let me just double check that uh yeah it's quite a late start this one yeah I'm just I'm just double checking on the website yes so it's 3:00 Eastern time today the action starts so nothing you haven't missed anything as yet but you haven't got much time so make sure you head across to the BET River's website to check out all the first round matches and the future Market we're going to discuss the future Market here as well last year the tourn Was Won by sakur he beat dollah Hyde and the year before it was won by Jess picler who also beat saary in the final and as R said it was a 1,000 event last year and it wasn't really the greatest of 1,000 events uh let's have a look at the draw the more important draw the bracket uh number one seed is R touched on is Helena ostapenko she's number one seed she will play Magdalena frck if it goes to seedings in the quarterfinal uh Garcia is the number four seed and she will pay bu Busa the number six seed and that is the top half of the draw in the bottom half of the draw K meta the number seven seed will play as a ranker the number three seed and dollah Hyde last year's beaten finalist in number eight seed she will play Daniel Collins um all the seedings get a by through to round number two so they're already through to the round of I think it's the last 13 they're through to last 32 they're through to so uh the players are playing for the right to play for one of those seeds so they're already through so if you want to bet one of those players they they have nothing to worry about in round one let's have a look at some outright markets you know the bracket and let's Guadalajara Futures Predictions have a look at the outright markets Danielle Collins is the tournament favorite at plus 250 uh on the early season form you would probably been all over that plus 250 but not really at the moment to the way she's playing Victoria Azarenka has a very poor run at the moment very poor US Open she's plus 450 osta Peno just coming off the back of winning the doubles um in the US Open she's plus 450 she's going to be celebrating probably a fade this week Busa is plus $8 Garcia is 10 never bet her if anyone's money ashleen Kruger interesting one she's 12 CA at 14 Sloan Stevens the veteran at 16 dollah Hyde the nearly girl last year 18 magdalan the freck at 20 cila ozoria at 25 I always like her in these kind of tournaments with her support but probably a little bit too quick for her Kalina 28 to1 rack him over at 28 to1 and then we're 40 to1 by those uh top 10 I believe Rory where's the value here yeah so as you said top four seeds get buys I knew I get it wrong because I you know why I got it wrong because I tried to go to the WTA website and print the drawer off I couldn't print the drawer off so I just assumed that they were been given by so it was a nightmare for me yeah those it's like yeah it's where you get the draw and you Tred to get the PDF print out and it it is really hit and miss um which is not very good um I mean AA Pena she's the top seed she's only joint second in the favorite in in the in the betting I should say uh she's in the top quarter because she's the top seed is easy first round match you'd think um against stakich or Schmid lovera um but then round two um sorry round three because she's got to buy uh probably either Magdalena frck or ashleen Krueger um now F's having a good year uh she's as high as she's been in the world rankings just outside the top 40 um she took a set of Emma Navaro in very quick conditions in Monteray uh not so long ago before that she beat Marie Bowa in Cincinnati Krueger it's a funny one because she's got the game for fast surfaces she's got she's tall she's got a big serve but she's very up and down she stunned mirand draa at Flushing Meadows but then went out very tamely to limina Sam son um going to the second quarter karoline Garcia having a pretty mediocre year uh bov is in that second quarter she reached the semis here in 2022 she actually beat sabalenka in Washington in the semi-finals uh before going down to paa Bosa in the final she's only won one since I mean that top half I'm kind of looking at B Krueger and frck and and the prices make my mind up for for me because B is $8 Krueger is $12 and freck is $20 um so I think F's the value in the top half I mean you you wouldn't trust any of those players implicitly I would't trust any of players in the whole tournament not it's it's one of those I mean there are doubts over all of these players but but I think freck is worth a play at $20 I think I mean I do have my doubts you know about her sustaining it over the course of a week but I think that price is too big to ignore especially when you compare it to the others so um I'll have half a point each way on frck uh in the top half in the bottom half you know when I saw the names in the tournament I was drawn to Azarenka uh she has struggled for fitness and she she was beat by yafan Wang at the US Open but her price is just too short at plus 450 um she's in the third quarter along with Veronica Kuda who paor run of form continued in New York she hasn't won a match since June Camila Rakim overa is interesting she gave eus fion a bit to think about in New York and then she actually won the Challenger event last week in the same venue uh it's a 125 she beat Tatiana Maria in the final on Saturday that was her biggest win of her career um then you go to the bottom quarter Danielle Collins number two seed but she's in the same quarter as carollyn dohy who beat her at the US Open and dollarhyde was the runner up last year um dollarhyde looks to have not a bad run she's got Martina trevisan first up who's who's out of form and missed last week U the Challenger with a foot injury and then in round two either an helina kalinin or Renata zarazua um the home player both of those would prefer slower conditions and then in the quarters it's probably either a rematch with Collins or maybe Sloan Stevens um I do like dollar Hy for this um she reached the semi-finals in Washington she's in good form um she lost out there to and some over um in Cincinnati she lost to Taylor towns end who's always dangerous in quick conditions and we know it was quick in Cincinnati um at the US Open she lost to Irani after beating Collins sorry Irani and that happened she made too many unforced eras she's not the first not the last player to do that um I do like dollar hide here I think $19 is a fair price she's in form she likes it here um so we'll have another half Point each way there I I you know I struggle to see why Collins is such a short price based on you know the last few weeks she she struggled with Fitness um first round exit at the US Open plus 250 looks hellish short for her yeah I mean dollar hard is actually come in a little bit she now $18 with bet Rivers Collins is obviously plus 250 the favorite I agree with you totally on this one R I think dollahyde is the BET here obviously she's got the incentive as well she's got a lot of points to defend I mean she's got she's got to the final here last last year and she's got all those points to defend here and it was in a thousand event so you think about it she's got massive massive incentive to do well here was a lot of these players probably Colin's on a farewell Le now wasn't she's done the Uso she's on a farewell tour is she going to be up for the challenge after having such a high at the start of the year and winning thousand events and now coming towards the end of her career I think dollar hiy here is is a cracking B at 18th um really really do so I'm totally in agreement with you there on the American there $18 uh remember this starts at 300 p.m. so head across to the BET Ro's website make sure you get on today 3:00 p.m. today and dollar heid hasn't got a buy she has to go through has the right the top four seeds through the buy I've got that wrong because don't blame me blame the WTA website on that one so it's not my fault uh there is another tournament and if you think if you Monastir Preview thought after the US Open things couldn't get any worse well they can't just hang along this next six or seven minutes and you'll realize how bad they can possibly get we're moving across to Tunisia now to Monas in the ja jmin open um very famous Jasmine met me last week at um the at the JFK Airport Jasmine palini she her week it was she actually did say that she asked me she she asked me to pass on regards and she says Tunes in every week and could I have a can I have a selfie and I said of course you can Jasmine no problem whatsoever um but it's a one it's a 250 event over in Tunisia and this tournament is a tournament that's been dominated by Elise Mertens um before we go into the bracket and the the draws and the prices we give us some conditions here in tune again I can imagine it being very very hot yeah it's going to be warm and mostly dry all week temperatures in a high 20 Celsius low 80s Fahrenheit the thing about monaster is although it's hardcore it's really slow um one of the slowest events of 2023 um service hold percentage 55.4 it was actually slower than every event on Clay last year um it's and the field isn't great as you've alluded to um yeah this is yeah this isn't it's a strange tournament it's funny you've got you got this one you've got the one in Thailand in huahin earli in the year they're actually going to Harin twice this year they're actually going there again in October um and these two are really slow despite being on hard courts um and yeah Elise Merton is the two two time reigning Champion uh and and the top seed um she won last year without dropping a set she actually beat the aforementioned Jasmine palini in the final last year um and but this looks a weaker field than last year it's um yeah the conditions should suit Merton more than anyone else um and yeah I mean we'll look at the draw shortly but Merton is the favorite and rightly so yeah as you say she hasn't lost the matches two times Champion tour only been held twice and she's won both times and no wonder she's the number one team when you look at the field this is the bracket number one Elise Merton uh she will play Min in the quarterfinals if it goes their way the number three SE is Dan parry and she will play Christian the Romanian and that's the top half of the draw shows you how weak that is in the bottom half bronzetti the Italian's number seven seed she'll play poosa uh Nar P Rosco might like K condition conditions here she's the Argentinian number four seed blinkova is the number eight seed and number two seed is Clara Burell so that shows you the kind of tournament we have here let's look at the betting with bet Monastir Futures Predictions Rivers Mertens no no surprise plus 2 10 favorit to win this and a lot of people might just think that is picking money up off the street in this kind of field giving her record here unbeaten two-time Champion Clara baral the number two city is $6 N9 to one for DM Parry 10 to to one for cus Tomo Min is 12 and Lee 14 to1 lot of money for her overnight she was 33 to1 when we went to bed woke up this morning at 14 to one he's he's more than half in price bronzetti is 16 lies is 16 poosa 16 mayor sheriff is 16 masarova 20 czara is 25 and blinkova is 25 as well Christian as well 25 as well um it's really going to be who can stop Mertens if anyone can if anyone can I mean and and the thing with Merton is not only is she the two-time reigning Champion she's in good form she had a decent run at the US Open she knocked out Madison Keys uh before falling to arena sabalenka in the round of 16 um honestly but does that help her does that help her the fact that she's gone well and come here travel back you know she whereas the other players have obvious been a lot more rested than her is that is that a possible I mean I mean she didn't really she might have just made the second week remember exactly when they played but right you know it's she she'll have had enough rest um I don't think that would be a problem I I just don't see how she gets beat I mean first up she's got Anastasia zacharova who looks to be coming back from injury um she was beaten in her first qualified for the US Open um she had a bit of a break she actually won an ITF event 100 event in Portugal but then had a few weeks off before trying to qualify for the US Open uh round two evise or lesia serenko I mean serenko is rarely fit but she has shown a liking for slow hard courts in the past but but not one really to trust with your money then probably minen in the quarterfinals Parry or Christian in the semis and take your pick in the bottom half I mean the bottom half is just so trappy it's unbelievable um I mean Bell's a number two seed she did reach the quarterfinals in Cleveland the week before the US Open but that wasn't much of a field I mean most of the players in the bottom half are either clayt specialist out of form or both of those things so H you know it's you know Merton's at plus 210 to me is still a big price um I mean you look at Collins at plus 250 for guad lahara I know which one I'd rather be on um I think she's the way this tournament has shaped up and given her past record Merton should be the sort of near the sort of prices we're talking about sonc for Roland garos you know it's that she's that dominant here um you know I'm not really seeing and and the thing is I'm not really seeing anyone at a big price that I like I mean you've got Christian at 25 blink at 25 Sereno at 25 I mean even so I mean I was interested in Christian but her one of her big assets is her serve it's too slow for her serve really to be effective um and you know she could meet um Merton in the semis Merton beat her two years ago 6161 um said she didn't drop a set last year she beat Burell Burell was a number eight seed last year she's number two this year uh Merton's beat Burell 6261 in the semi-finals she beat palini 636 love in the final fin um I thought she'd be a lot shorter I mean to be honest you could see a case of her being around the sort of plus 130 plus 140 Mark so I'm going to do something that I don't normally do I'm going to have a big decent bet on on Merton Four Points win on on the Belgian I cannot see I cannot I cannot see her now hang on a minute there's there last week you called me oh favorite Becka did here we go he's gone four points All In Mertens I just I i' I've gone through it I've looked at you know I've looked at her path I've looked at the bottom half I just don't see anyone coming from that to trouble her it's it's just it's not a good tournament you know it's a weak tournament she's not been beaten here she's in good form and you can't say those things about anyone else in the field I mean poosa is the fourth seed she's a clay CT specialist she's hopelessly out four um and and you can you you're just looking at the field and thinking you're going through these players and can't you just can't see them winning I mean Parry is a good player would want it quicker she's a third seed Bell's very flaky blinko would want it quicker bronzetti she prefers clay I mean I'm surprised by the move for an Lee um she's had some good results on clay and okay this is going to be similar Maybe may be slower in terms of speed but it's still different it's still not you know Clay players could go well youve got Sara SZ Toro in the bottom you know it's possible that she could go well but Mertens has done it been there and and because it's slow and because it's hardcore it's you know it does lend itself to a specialist and you know Mertens has won it two years in a row which would you know back that up I just can't see her being beaten I suppose the an monies for each way isn't it you look at she's in the bottom half the she's in the bottom half she's 33 to one people thinking oh 16 16 and a half to one to make the final there you know there's not many other players that make such appeal so that could probably be the reason why but obviously Le merens is our bet here fourpoint bet a win the tournament and we sped we said on doll dollar High she has points to defend well this girl's got huge amount of points to defend here as well after well not many points because the 250 but she's got she's the incentive here is to make history and win a third title she likes to play she likes the court plus 210 we expected her to be around about plus 130 and even at those very low odds we believe that is value and Rory's gone for his first ever four point wager and I know Rory quite well he's not really someone who's really going to go all in but a fourpoint wager or he's quite ballsy for you isn't it yeah here we go it is it is it and but it's just because just from looking at you know at the tournament you know you know and obviously we do this every week we we we look at you know we we look at the conditions we look at the draw and obviously we try and analyze the form of the players going into it I you know it's funny like we were saying about the US Open it does normally go to a player in form and it went you know the finalists were the two informed players on the circuit sabalenka and Pula um obviously they met in the Cincinnati final as well um and in this tournament I mean Mertens has has everything going for her and I think yeah she's a big price and I I I just I just cannot see her being beaten remember the tournament starts today at 11:00 Eastern time so hopefully this video will drop give you plenty of time to get across to the BET Rivers website and place that bet on Merton but if it doesn't and it's a little bit later do not worry too much because meron is Mertens is not in action until tomorrow on Tuesday so the price won't change much on the outright Market to a tournament winner you'll still be able to get a decent price and you won't have the she won't be knocked out of the tournament or she run through to the next round where her price obviously gets a little bit shorter so you still have plenty of time make sure you head across to the BET Rivers website there's whole host of specials whole host of markets on the WCA tour no ATB tour action this week hence the reason why I'm waiting heading to the airport there a little bit of a break but there's still great content coming your way the live show each day every day at 11:00 Eastern time so when the tenis starts today the live show will be dropping uh all the because we win crew will be on there make sure you download this podcast betting weekly WTA subscribe to the YouTube channel we smash through the 5,000 subscribers barrier last week that was great thank you very much for that at betting weekly Studios and obviously follow us uh on Twitter and on our socials at because we win Rory thank you very much for your time this morning I know it's nice and early to get you up but if you can just give us a little bit of a recap on where we're going this week on the two tournaments on the WCA tour yeah so guad lahara the 500 uh in the top half Magdalena freck at $20 as a half Point each way and in the bottom half Caroline doah hide at $18 another half Point each way and then in monasa um all in on Elise meron's fourpoint win at plus 210 as you can see by the figure the WCA show this season is showing a slight loss of .3 31 units uh but when Mertens wins this without dropping a set six love six love in the final that's going to go up quite considerably let's hope for that uh good luck with your bets this weekend this week sorry it's a weekend I don't know what day of the week is flying from New York to every I don't know where I International jet Setter now I'm absolutely exhausted 4 hours sleep last night and I can't sleep I just cannot sleep anymore like I've just don't know where I am my top my body clocks all over the place but anyway I'm not complaining it's a great opportunity but anyway uh good luck with your bet this week and good luck with meron our big play our biggest play of the Year hopefully she can cash to take us nicely into profit heading into the the Far East swing which is coming up very shortly uh thanks for watch your time Ro good luck take care everyone speak to you again next week