Tropics forcast: 2 disturbances form in the Atlantic; one getting more developed: NHC

hey there everybody Fox 35 Storm Team meteorologist snow Bergen here thanks for clicking on our tropical update online and our website fox35 orlando.com on our news and weather apps our Digital streaming platform Fox local and also our YouTube channel thank you to our YouTube audience for checking in with us hope you've had a great August as we are now about to head into Labor Day weekend all right let's talk some Tropic let's show you the maps right now and this map is not from right now it's actually from 19 years ago her huran Katrina was making landfall it was the morning of August 29th 19 years ago this was the infrared satellite the 28th into the 29th there you see Florida on the right and in the left center of the screen what was it just prolific hurricane with an absolute Buzz saw on the satellite very Crystal Clear Eye uh incredibly well defined in circular this thing did weaken upon landfall in Louisiana but it was still a strong hurricane this was the few inside from the hurricane hunters and this is what we call the Stadium effect Stadium effect where inside the eye U think about it like standing in the middle of a football stadium but you know the really big ones obviously unbiased like uh you know like Michigan Beaver Stadium obviously I'm a Penn Stat or so I'm going to reference that but like you know think of a really big football stadium like where they host the Super Bowl how Cascades out like that to the side uh that is what you get in the really high-end hurricanes where it doesn't doesn't go straight up from the eye the clouds go out and up like that and and it kind of looks like a stadium when you're inside and completely crystal clear and calm and sunny uh in the eye that was inside uh from the hurricane hunters and this is the static image of the infrared satellite there is Florida and from this point to landfall it did weaken a little bit here is the path historically did impact South Florida as a category 1 hurricane then it curled into the Gulf of Mexico strengthened a category 5 and this became the sixth deadliest hurricane in United States history galam from the earlier 1900s ranks number one all right so all storms this year so far let me get you caught up now with where we are we've had a through e two storms have made landfall in the US barrel and Debbie now I know some of you might be saying and asking or wondering what happened and what do I mean if you don't know what I'm talking about what happened to the storms the last two weeks we kind of just pulled the plug on nothing um to be honest that was unexpected the last two weeks uh I think it's fair to say the majority of the mological community did not expect there to be this lull there hasn't been anything for after Ernesto um but that's going to change now a couple of things about that uh even in extremely active years there can be luls and often there are LS uh in the activity now I I'm saying all of this because I've been asked by many people does this lack of activity last two weeks mean the calls and predictions made previously for a hyperactive year extreme season this that and the other does that mean that that's now called off I I don't think so uh there might be some disagreement on that on the meteorological Community but I think I'd say it's probably split uh Noah just confirmed their forecast for an extremely active season Colorado state has maintain their numbers uh I think we'll still end up as extremely active uh just solely based on uh the developing linia and the extremely hot water temperatures but we'll see uh as we enter September so this quiet spell I think is going to have interesting consequences and here's why because the water is so hot and we've had a lack of activity to cool it right now uh that means that the water temperatures will be plenty supportive for hurricanes late into the year it could mean a very backloaded season where the storms are more focused on the end of the season this year rather than the early and middle part uh and also could sustain tropical activity into November uh this year all right so here's what we're tracking out there for you it's this wave right here in red on the clouds and then circled in Orange it's got a medium chance of development 40% as of now here's what I think you should know it Bears close watching to be honest and I try to shoot you straight I'm not sure yet if this is actually going to develop but underlined if it does it could really take off late next week as it gets closer to the gulf in the Western Caribbean so we've had a through e this would be named Francine if it does develop then after that would be Gordon so the reason why and there's a couple of reasons and to be honest it's not just one uh and even still uh I've tried to talk to some other colleagues and some friends and uh learn and read from people who are far far more into this you know with phds and uh you know research tropically speaking than I am uh but there's a couple of working theories why things just kind of got abruptly quiet after Ernesto there's not really one reason to just point at uh a couple of things one the dust plume has been unexpectedly large and long sustaining uh you see that in brown that's number one number two the tropical waves that have come off the coast of Africa have come off the coast too far north uh and what that has done is they've come into this dust plume and they've been killed off and they haven't been able to survive to the central and eventually Western Atlantic and develop uh number two the ocean temps there are cooler because uh all that dust limits the sun and the water has cooled in this part and that can't sustain thunderstorms uh number three and this is kind of kind of a uh one where there's some disagreement in the meteorological community and some scientific uh disagreement in a fair sense uh now I don't have a Graphic for it because this is a pretty new thing but it's called an Atlantic n what it is is remember El L that's in the Pacific water temps warmer cooler warmer elino cooler elino in the Atlantic this is a relatively new thing that's only been discovered and researched the last few years off of U Africa on the southern coast there's a little pocket down here of cooler water uh that mysteriously has developed that there is some ongoing research that suggests when that is there it could weaken these tropical waves as they come off the coast so those are a handful they all don't you know you can't just point to one of them and say that's the reason but all of those have had some impact the last few weeks all of that aside this wave here will keep an ey on too uh but it's this one right here that's kind of already out ahead of that dust plume will'll keep uh close tabs with there it is on the water vapor imagery you notice that right there but look at all the brown it's nowhere near there's not really a lot of dry air next to it so it is and that says uh in a favorable window but it's the wind shear and some other things that are pretty hostile right now so in terms of the timing over the next week week and a half by Monday Labor Day should be at that first dash line by Friday September 6th somewhere along this red dash line somewhere in the central Bahamas Northwest Cuba or the Far Western Caribbean so to answer your question if you're asking and wondering it when would this impact Florida the G Coast the South Southeast if it did become hurricane Francine it would be after next Friday uh so we're talking about Saturday September 7th Sunday the 8th Monday the 9th uh so 789 is when it would be in here right here uh Friday the 6th and then right here Labor Day so in terms of the long-term future uh here it is summarized for you hostile conditions in the green mainly because of wind shear uh in a center hasn't really Consolidated yet once it gets past the islands uh conditions should become more favorable the wind shear will relax now the ocean temps are historically hot here so that's not the issue it's the wind shear and does it actually have a center at that point but overall the condition should become more favorable in the yellow then if it makes it into that orange conditions will become extremely rip uh now here's my concern not just for this potential system but for the rest of the season uh we already saw this with Barrel earlier in July it got to cap five strength set zilia new records for how early and intense it got uh but the water here is hotter now than it was then and you saw what it produced in Barrel way earlier in the season notice here our system plots extreme in terms of the amount of ocean heat content for tropical systems this is what's called The Loop current right here where the water in the Caribbean comes up it does a loop and then becomes the Gulf Stream and goes out over here uh but you can see the majority of the Caribbean is bordering on Extreme level of ocean heat content right here in the southeast Eastern Gulf extreme very hot to extreme off of Florida's East Coast so the point is if a storm were to come like this like a jean or an Andrew or like an Ian or a Charlie across Cuba then like this it's going to have top of the chart level fuel uh to become a strong hurricane for the rest of the season assuming ideal conditions so that's the real concern uh is that if we get stuff the rest of the season it's going to have plenty of fuel in the ocean to work with although remember that's not the only piece of the recipe so in terms of big picture long term there's two waves again remember I showed you but right now it's the first one that has a chance of development here's the European model uh what we call the Ensemble so 50 different versions of the Euro it says about a 50% chance by the 5th of September so this is the middle of next week that will have a tropical system named Francine here south or near Puerto Rico and then behind it about a 50% chance of another one that would be Gordon uh if that one did in fact de so let's talk some models now here's the European model uh now this is the wind and uh the uh wind barbs on here at about 10,000 ft just it makes it clearer for you to see everything else that's going on uh so it's September 2nd you see it crossing the island still just kind of a tropical wave maybe a depression then it starts to get it act together now remember your uh anatomy of tropical systems if you will in in this area land interaction with the islands is crucial especially as they're in their early stages of development if this thing was already a cat 5 out here yes it still matters but it matters tremendously less say if there was a cat 5 hurricane right here going this way yeah the islands are going to impact it but it's a lot less impactful than when something's trying to get going in is contending with the island so obviously a track right over Cuba Hispanola a lot more impactful and detrimental to Genesis something that stayed north or south of the islands even by a narrow margin means a lot higher ceiling so that's something we'll watch too but notice the Euro winds this up tropical storm hurricane uh by the middle and end of next week here's the GFS model now candidly the GFS model has bounced back and forth each run each run the last day or two it said storm will form than nothing storm of form or nothing so it just goes to show you how volatile and teetering on the edge of development this system is in my opinion it either will develop and become a hurricane or won't do anything I don't really see any Middle Ground of oh might just be a weak little sloppy depression or a storm and kind of go on along its mer little way now it'll either completely do nothing at all or I think it'll become a hurricane that's kind of just how I see it as of right now but here's the GFS model interestingly pretty good agreement with the Euro uh that this does become a name storm there by the middle of next week and then it becomes a game of where does it go uh but there's a high out over here so it's not going to probably recurve like this it would either come off of Florida's East Coast to Florida into the Gulf uh so it Bears close watching if that in fact does occur I wouldn't be too worried about it right now but again the bottom line is we should watch it close because if it is able to generate Center in form conditions do become quite favorable next week a reminder we are nearing the peak of hurricane season which is about September 10th but notice this chart if you drew a line right here on the right side of that line there's a lot more activity after the peak than there is before obviously that's because it coincides with the warmest water temperatures and the lightest wind sheared most years in the Atlantic Basin we'll be here to get you through the rest of hurricane season I would suspect that after this unexpected law things are going to get quite active and at some point we'll have something else come near Florida this season so if you haven't done so already make sure you've got your little stockpile a plan in place you don't have to you know get all worked up just a plan in place to know run through your family your business what you would do uh if there was a hurricane or something threatening Us in Florida but certainly we're heading to that Peak part of the season and we need to keep tals with this potential France scene as we head into next week thank you all for watching we'll see you on Fox 35 with more over the next few days