Best MLB, NCAAF & WNBA Bets for 8/30: PrizePicks, FanDuel, Fliff - Player Props, Picks, Predictions

happy Friday guys welcome into the stream I do want to quickly for about 10 to 15 seconds just start off by saying if you're not familiar this morning we um had a massive tragedy in the hockey Community with Johnny and Matthew gdo uh passing away tragically by being hit by a drunk driver um for my 5 Seconds you guys are going to be out there Labor Day weekend enjoining yourselves friends family having some drinks I'm going to be having some drinks um just don't drink and drive that's all just don't drink and drive it's not worth it so enjoy your pops if you're having some pops grab an Uber stay sleep on your buddy's couch you know or have someone pick you up but just don't drink and drive so all right well switching it from there what's going on Salia how are you man um yesterday we had a $94 losing day which I know I'm GNA it's not loser talk I know I'm going to have losing days in sports betting so if I can have that no problem did do some live betting yesterday hit this under live bet on fliff kind of focused on main books with live betting notice that um at least for yesterday's games Pinnacle didn't have a market set up for live betting so it was just kind of going off of the outliers of the books lost this bet on North Carolina AT&T but shout out to DraftKings for limiting me so I didn't lose nearly as much um I think I live bet this to toan game which was lucky because we got 52 points obviously bet this earlier in the day and we lost 52 and a half so um I told totally forgot that I had the over on this North Carolina Minnesota game because all the Boost that I received from DraftKings I bet the under so I I end up losing money on that one but I I forget sometimes and then this is why maybe you don't double down on your Bets week one right or it's just a bad way to go but alorn State Murray State none of these big underdogs really covered just the points weren't enough play I gave out on my YouTube uh page Coastal Carolina that was big and then a play that I gave out on the sea Discord earlier yesterday smashed um Royals as's first five innings on the under yeah brutal way to see it man definitely brutal way I want to keep it obviously Positive Vibes people aren't here to hear me talk about my thoughts about that but it's just you know it's pretty common sense but have we all done it before just just don't drink and drive so I'm going to rip through some of the various tools guys we got a lot of promos going on out there I want to talk about um something if you're brand new to sports betting that I think it's important to talk about so I'm going to kind of just rip through some various tools I'm not going to maybe dive into talking about the tools right now because this my take me a few minutes to kind of go through my not rant but I just love to educate I love to teach um it's what I love to do in the space so one thing that I'll mention we're just going to quickly so I can start off this this topic of what I want to talk about I just hit this play over here on Tanner H so what we do if we zoom out in sports betting what we zoom out right now okay sports betting lives in a gray area what do I mean by that okay sports betting lives in a gray area it's not black and white it's it's not 2 plus 2 equals 4 right so for Tanner H over one and a half walks bmgm bet 365 DraftKings fliff Caesars well I'm sorry B MGM bet 365 fliff Caesars they all have different opinions this is their projections what they think is going to happen so why I bring this up is is the main betting strategy that I use that's wildly popular that everybody that a lot of people use and it's because it's successful it works is the Kelly Criterion method the Kelly Criterion method is a risk of Ruin okay so you see this right over here this recommended bet size of $500 if I click refresh we'll get a different play and it's going to recommend me a different size right the Kelly Criterion is based off of two factors number one it's our bank role the amount of money we have a lot of for sports Bing okay and then number two is it's based off of our Edge so I should go back here our Edge in the market this Edge well this Edge is calculated based off of the odds that we're receiving in the market and for the Kelly Criterion the strategy is the Kelly Criterion assumes it's a risk of ruin it keeps it gives us some exposure to plays but it doesn't want to ruin our bankroll but the the strategy itself assumes that we have perfect information right well we do have perfect information with the bankroll that we're giving it but for the edge that we're giving it that's that's there's a margin of error it lives in a gray area right because we're going off of projections off of these books and so what we're determining is our no VI Fair odds right here and then we're saying hey there's value right here on this rugby match on Warrington at plus 130 at bet 365 so the issue is is that we can't give the Kelly Criterion method perfect information because the edge that we're telling it because the the the method Works off of our bankroll and the edge and then it spits out a number saying this is what you should bet well because we can't give it perfect information on the edge that we have that's why when I'm going through the positive EV tool there's kind of my confidence and my experience that's where it kicks in where I go well you know what it tells us we should bet 100 but I think I'm going to bet like 75 or I'm actually going to bet 150 instead of 100 and so that's why when you see me go through these different plays I have I wager different amounts now there are times where I'm just Reckless okay so I find a play that has an edge of 01 5% and it's telling me to bet 10 bucks and I'm like I'm not doing that I'm betting $50 well I'm being Reckless there but why I mention this is because when we go through like these moneyline baseball plays on cut that have like a half percentage Edge and I'm like well I'm going to wager more than that because to me a money line plays worth more that's where this margin of error comes in because we we're not following the Kelly Criterion to an exact science we're staying relatively close it's not like I'm it tells me to bet 50 bucks and I go bet 500 you know I just might bet 100 or maybe like 120 at the most so that's something that's important to understand when you're utilizing these tools as we're over here in Underdog fantasy is that with the Kelly Criterion method it's assuming we have perfect information and we don't and that's why my bet sizes vary and don't necessarily follow the recommended bet size to a te and so I just want to explain that to anyone out there that's maybe new into this space that's trying to get into positive EV betting and you go well Billy it says you should bet 75 but you know you're betting 125 why is that and that's that's why so anyways done with it lyndenwood did Cover yeah you know it was it was tough to see um the Kansas game I had the I put out a same game parlay two-p pick parlay they just got off to a slow start it seemed like in the first quarter I wasn't watching their game I was watching some other games um and and then you know obviously they're up like 48 to3 and I'm like dude one touchdown and I hit the over 57 and a half we'll hit this spread come on Kansas and then you know obviously with like six minutes left in the fourth quarter they're up 45 points they just they just shut it down they just run the ball put the backups in or whatever the case was so uh that's just a tough one um obviously guys this isn't the natural for me to be streaming on Fridays in the afternoon but because I was at a doctor's appointment this morning that went well and then I even bought wine for the nurses the nurses weren't even I mean the nurses were just really nice they've been taking care of me because I have to go there three times a week so something small to think about guys I just bought them like a415 bottle of wine one for each just as a thank you for them just for I come in and I'm not I'm not working a side angle of trying to you know hit up these girls and take them on a date just thanking them for their service and for what they do for me because otherwise there's nobody else in my household or family that would be able to do this and uh so you know taking care of my my incision and my my [ __ ] that I got going on so um and then obviously I got some family coming in later today I got my sister bringing uh or her newborn niece my newborn niece who I'm going to meet buy I'm going to go buy my nephew he's like two and a half years old I'm going to go buy him some fireworks love buying kids scratch off tickets cuz like especially like the ones that are three years and younger just like I'll buy them scratch off tickets and they can just scratch away and then everybody wins cuz then Mom and Dad's like haha and then everyone like laughs at the party like Oh Billy he's a he's got a real gambling problem and I I just think it's funny for like $5 to buy like a 2-year-old scratch off tickets I don't know everybody wins or everybody loses just getting my nephew started early um but anyway so I'm going to be going seeing them this this uh around dinner time around like my normal stream time 600 p.m. Eastern to hang out with them all right so that's what's going on the optimizer let's go check out dgf we're going to be just going through various tool guys we're on the AI slip generator let's go hit all these books up you you guys have any big plans for Labor Day weekend um for the people that are State Side I'm not sure if you know Matt you up in Canada if you guys really even pay attention to Labor Day if it's just like a regular weekend for you guys obviously down here it's a big deal got something cooking up here on Boom fantasy um yeah yeah I don't know man it's just fun he doesn't know you know so I did that for Dave I did that for him for Christmas this past year and a stocking stuffer gave him like two or three uh scratch off tickets and he just he's just going nuts on him and then like you know my brother-in-law is like looking over his shoulder being like Oh do we win did we win so I kind of always find that funny definitely I have a fireworks store right down here so I'll probably buy just some little like spr some sparklers or something like that so he can have fun with tonight um I don't have any kids myself but I do get gain some enjoyment by being that Uncle that kind of disrupts everything gets my sister all pissed off and then I jet away and do something else so we got something here on prize picks going on as well if I'm if you guys didn't catch yesterday evening stream guys I'll throw this in the chat what's going on Dom going to the Phillies game tonight Yanks game tomorrow dude what a Sunday what a weekend Dom oh I love that um that's awesome so if you guys aren't familiar with yet with the dgf AI slip generator um they are running a promo guys if you pump in this code I get no Kickback from this code where is it there it is I'll throw this in right now uh you get 50% off your first two months your first two months 50% off the AI slip generator is a standalone product the link that I'll throw in here is for their uh where you get one week free and then a 25% discount your first month I'm going to throw that code in right now that's for the optimizer the middling tone the fantasy scores the AI slip generator is a standalone product but they are offering an awesome promo so for the first two months of football season guys I think that's really solid what you can get on here let's click generate one more time see what else we got um same plays yeah same plays okay there's nothing going on there and let's go back over to a jam and the plus CV tool so I think right now I'm going to remove bet 365 at the moment I'll bring them back up um I have some of the main books Caesar's DraftKings fand fliff no Vic profit X rebet Thrills I think the ones that everybody really wants this jokovic bet first set today I already bet it earlier in the week I bet it Thursday yesterday morning uh at plus 110 it's now at plus 115 typically in these situations I don't go back to the well and bet it again um but it is a better price so if you wanted to you could James Madison minus 14 A5 what do I got on him I got a minus 11 in the under 46 so minus 14 a half it's a juicy number 14's a very special number in football um obviously guys I'll mention this too I'm on the actually I'm going to use the penny odds right here so Pinnacle doesn't have anything set up for this we're on the worst case scenario so we're going to do that Carson Beck on his touchdowns Clemson vers Georgia on BET Rivers yeah I would say that's a good price too anything with um it's going to be a great game we got we got some games tonight that aren't as sexy as yesterday's games but they're solid you know Temple or was it temple Oklahoma okay Duke's playing uh Michigan State's playing so we'll see but we got this is tomorrow's game James Madison yeah I mean this is just an outlier right here I'll definitely do a little sprinkle I'm already on them I'm not crazy about the 14 and a half I'm not going to lie to you there let's open up fliff shout out to fliff um I do have three fantasy football drafts on Sunday so thankfully you know Monday being a holiday um that's going to be a lot I think it's at like 1 o'clock 3 o'clock and 8 o'clock it's just a it's a lot we're just knocking them all out all at once all right so let's go over here let's type in James Madison and we're looking at this is going to be an alternate point spread this isn't the main spread so minus yeah- 14 a half Bingo 195 uh yeah I'll do I'll do 50 bucks for this one I'll do 50 bucks I don't like that minus 14 and a half it's a because and the reason I don't like it as much guys is because like if it was minus if it was minus5 not that big of a deal if this was -4 awesome if this was minus 13 and a half I might even bet more um but minus it's just you know if they end up winning the game you know 4228 then we lose um we got some things cooking over here on fandel I I might put together maybe a little parlay right now this would be fun just just like a parlay giveaway interesting John Carlos Stanton kind of like the bases because Pinnacle has a line for this and we're getting a pretty good price here so let's start off with Jean Carlos Stanton over on his bases obviously one click bet feature guys it's sick over at OD Jam we have this on the golden Platinum plans I got to log in we got a lot of boosts going on too guys I know DraftKings has a ton of boosts uh they got one for like they got 105% boost for the Penn State West Virginia game they have a nice boost I think a couple other boosts we're going to definitely dive into those because I know I want to show you guys how you can use your boosts that are solid so looks like maybe we'll look at Adie Rutman we'll look at some of these other plays right here yeah Rutman is decent so what you can just do is going click this bet again I'll close this window out and now we have a twole parlay so ODS Jam's telling me wrong screen Billy boy let's close this up um and today's stream guys probably will go more than 30 minutes it might go up to an hour just because I know I'm not giving you guys anything later tonight so we might go a little bit longer so 60 bucks here Jen Carlo they're telling me 80 bucks so that's like 140 so let's just put a smooth hundred bucks on this twole parlay I'll tweet this one out guys this will be a cash giveaway we'll give away 100 bucks if this parlay hits It's juicy it's got an edge I know that I'm not crazy about betting batter props but you know for baseball I don't mind this one both of these guys are stars they're going to be batting in the top four of their lineup right one through four they should be batting maybe Shan Carlo gets in that fifth spot but they should be getting three they're definitely going to get three maybe four at bats in the game so we'll put a little parlay on that one um and that'll be fun that's a good one that's a good one to go after we'll do um Rutman I haven't done this too often on the stream I need to need to start calculating the parlays and just putting this here and guys if you guys don't know this this is important information if you like to build parlays click this little purple dollar sign here you come up here to the top and then it's going to tell you the books that are offering the best parlay for the for these two naturally we know because fanduel's given us the best so I'll put this at 100 bucks and then all you got to do is click the plus symbol and you'll see up here at the top it should say boom parlay added to the track or you can't see because My Big Fat Head's in the way awesome fun what's up Aunt May how are you man how are you um let me throw this in here guys obviously if you want to try a jam and their tools one week for free and save 35% off your first month check it out I'm going to be dropping a video on my channel on Sunday you're on my YouTube channel if you haven't subscribed yet definitely consider doing so check out some of the content if you're like this guy's not half bad then subscribe it would mean a lot to me and if you have subscribed thank you I really really appreciate it but going to be dropping a video on um Sunday so I'm excited about that all right so let's do a little refresh and let's check out some of these other books um obviously guys let me know in the chat if you want to see a certain Market you want to see a certain book you want me to go to the optimizer sometimes I spend a lot of time just about the positive EV tool and you want to see something else ooh UTEP Nebraska so if you're like okay well which one should I play two ways to go about this mathematically you should play this one but if you want a little extra insurance since we're taking the under then do under 45 The Edge isn't that big of a deal here it's 0 6% not crazy um not a ton of books that have opinions really four books because bet parks and bet rivers run off the same odds maker but any time that you in my opinion here's why I like this play a lot cambi in general which is the odds the market maker that bet rivers and bet Parks hires to get their odds it's called cambi their edges are really [ __ ] soft softer than puppy [ __ ] as I love to say shout out to the spit and chicklets podcast and biz for that for that saying right there so soft edges means this is an easy book to make money off of and anytime that fliff has worse better odds for us than cambi or River books mhm that's what we like to see right there that's that money coming in so we definitely want some of this we want some of this and then we got to look at Fritz Fritz leans ah I haven't used the word lean in a long time that's a great play that's a great question there that's a great phrase that's such a tout word in my opinion no no offense um but we'll take a look let me let me get this in on Nebraska so the main Line's at 49 a half let's take a look so we're on the under 45 not uh yeah under 45 of plus 145 they say 70 I'll do 75 um I kind of want to do 100 bucks because I I feel like there's an edge here with this play just a little bit more of an edge not a feel in terms of like o I feel like the they're not going to score any points I just feel that anytime we can get better odds than the cambi books that's worth a lot so let's take a look at Fritz got the rain obviously the reason I'm going 100 miles a minute is because shout out to rain they're not a they're not a sponsor maybe one day when I get really big and strong and I get big in this space maybe I'll get a rain sponsorship Love Rain tropical storm all the way tropical storm and Cherry Li mate so Fritz obviously I'm not betting the money line way too juicy over here though on the spread batt online plus 100 - 101 nothing crazy really there let's look at the total games minus 110 where's that at that's Pinnacles odd so I'm not crazy about either of these I'm I'm just really looking for Clear outliers some markets that I know that maybe fliff might show up is like first set total games let's take a look at the first set total games I know that there's certain tennis plays um that are good and obviously guys with every sport it's a little bit different o right here under N9 and a half at minus 152 um compared to the rest of the market what's minus 172 is the market average if I click the no Vig odds minus 143 okay so not a great price I don't mind this play though under nine and a half games at minus 152 this this isn't this is almost an R between bet 365 and FanDuel I don't mind this play here on if I was going to lean sure I would lean under 9 and a half I mean the first set games we want Fritz to win 63 62 61 six six Cobb something like that um trying to think and then sometimes there is set betting player sets one so if like a player to win all all set games just take a look at this real quick and then we'll move n there's nothing great there and then game spread is there anything like alternate game spreads that maybe we can look at you want to know guys and I got to bring this up over here you want to know no it's on Twitter isn't it yeah it's on Twitter so there was something I thought that was interesting guys in terms of betting tennis you really want to focus on fandle DraftKings 365 and Fanatics because if guys retire um yeah we looked at this we're just going to move on so that's where I would lean first set games under nine and a half minus 152 at FanDuel I'm not going to bet that myself but if I was going to lean a certain way I I would like that play um but you know some places and I got this over on my side like if a guy retires like Caesars if you bet a guy money line and a guy retires like they'll void both moneyline bets bet MGM um bet Rivers if the first set is complete and the player retires they grade whoever advances as the winner and the other person as a loser so if your guy is winning wins the first you know if that that's how it goes if he wins the first set and then his opponent retires you win um if the first set is complete on FanDuel DraftKings bet 365 and Fanatics whoever advances grades as a win whoever retires is graded as a void so let me just back this up again for my tennis betters because tennis is awesome I love betting on it it's a market that not a lot of books spend a lot of time to spend a lot of information spend a lot of resources on FanDuel DraftKings bet 365 and Fanatics let's say you bet jokovic on the you bet jokovic as the winner I bet Tommy Paul as the winner in the match jokovic wins the first set in the second set Tommy Paul retires well if you bet jokovic on FanDuel DraftKings bet 365 and Fanatics you win the bet if I bet Tommy Paul on those four books I don't lose the bet it gets refunded to me it get the bet gets voided so that's really important because if I would have bet that over bet MGM or bet Rivers I lose that bet but on the other major books you don't so I love doing that what you also have to understand especially especially with these smaller books like fliff and like a noig or even FanDuel they when it comes to tennis they only have so much money resources Manpower that they can devote so I really believe fandle sharp on player prop bets granted I just made a parlay on one especially with NFL or NBA you know these books like fliff these smaller books they can't devote as much resources into like the first game spread on jokovic so I love going after these lesser known Sports because there's a lot of value here oo under 58 on TCU Stanford I just bet this over at um Caesars apparently I didn't put this in the BET tracker I bet it at one plus 159 um so maybe I forgot to put this in but I believe that on these smaller books you can find a lot of value believe I bet 100 bucks I got to double check now you can find a lot of value on tennis plays and because you know all these books can only you know they're like well you know what we're going to vote we're going to devote more of our money into our models on baseball and football or basketball and football and take a look at it compared to you know maybe tennis we don't want that we want to go to my sports book and I want to see the open bets yeah so I bet Tanner Hal to over five and a half strikeouts for 100 bucks right before the stream fired up that's what I thought um we're on this one yes let's close this one out really still a good play over at DraftKings if you wanted to bet it over at DraftKings obviously um it's just an outlier to the rest of the book I like this play a lot this under 59 tonight on Stanford TCU new book called profit X slight Edge as the we have the no viig odds at plus 107 but I like this play um peer-to-peer sports book not a peer-to-peer sports book it's an exchange thanks Matthew I appreciate that man um yeah definitely sat so you want to focus on like FanDuel DraftKings Fanatics bet 365 if you have accounts with those if you're betting tennis not every tennis bets going to be a retired you know maybe one or two out of 10 bets that happens but it can be annoying Matthew Drake hey on a jam when something is highlighted green does that mean it's plus EV I appreciate that Matthew yeah so I mean essentially um basically how what we look at it here is like on the under 59 like obviously the plays that are not in green they suck um if they're kind of green then they're like okay maybe we got something here and the and the bright green this plus 107 is the we want so same with Tanner H or hook or however you say his name we obviously don't want to bet this on BET Rivers it's terrible or FanDuel there's maybe a little bit of value here on fanatics but the real play the real value is DraftKings so that's what it means when this play is in green so um I'll pull the the MacBook up guys obviously but they're they're they never find my location so I have to place this bet on my book on my cell phone I should say so profit X works the same as fliff you got their fake ass coins right here it's a sweep Stakes sports book it's a sweep Stakes model the reason that they're able to get around on all of this is because it's a free-to-play app under one oh it's actually a plus 110 and they have $1,600 available so here's what I love about it okay and I can showcase this here where's college football at we're on it beautiful so we come down here to TCU see this under 59 a plus 110 really small to see and then we go over to the cash side see how this says ,600 available that means the max wager they'll take on this play is $1600 but my location is not verified on the MacBook but it's verified here on my cell phone so we're going to hit this up really quick I love this we're getting better odds so all we're going to do is just click in the calculator changes from 107 to 110 and you can see I should bet $111 on it so I'll do $110 on it confirm Booyah got that okay cool so we're on the under and I know betting the unders isn't but UND hit boys unders hit don't be afraid so we're going to put this in on the BET tracker I'll change this over here I put everything in on my bet tracker it's a free BET tracker at do Jam guys um if you're serious about making money sports betting you got to track your bets it's not sexy it's it's not bankroll management and bet tracking oh my God it's like nails on a chalkboard but dude it makes a difference love this play on Johnny Gray Johnny Gray I love going after the pitcher props way more than The Hitter props so no offense to Mr Duca but I love this play right here good play over at B MGM let's get some money down on this one yeah it's a it's it's what book were you using that with SAA if you don't mind me asking on the Tommy Paul match uh this is the Rangers I just know that he plays pitches for the Rangers A's Rangers we're looking for under four and a half hits allowed boom minus 130 yeah I like this so we're going to do 100 bucks on this one um this is something I just I want a full unit I want a full unit because I just know that I've done very well with fliff with picture props I like this one so we're going to do 130 bucks um it told it tells me I should do uh 60 but I'm also I also know again we talk about like this variance early on the beginning of the stream guys I know that I'm also using the most conservative dvig method the most conservative one that odds Jam offers in terms of finding the fair odds so if I was going on multiplicative default this would be it would tell me to wager even more so I'm kind of trying to go in between that area as well I know I'm using the most conservative so if we find an edge on this play I need to start trusting that a little bit more um let's go back over the optimizer for my DFS guys I don't know what promos are being cooked up right now on prize picks I know they usually have their Flex Fridays um Hard Rock for Tommy Paul yeah flip voided it because of the joke ofic yeah I agree with that a thanks Christopher appreci appreciation no appreciate you stopping by I do streams I know everybody does streams a little differently I end up talking a lot like this is pretty rare for me to be getting this many bets down I just end up talking a lot and I like to explain at least how I do it and I'm not the most profitable Sports better like I I make money sports betting there are other guys that do it a lot better than I do but if nothing else I at least like to explain to you my it'll be three years in in September of using ODS jam and I was just just like everybody else I signed up paid my monthly fees paying a couple hundred bucks a month back in the day and um and then decided that I just wanted to talk and I was talking to myself a lot in my apartment which is probably not good for my psychosis but I was like you know why don't you just like record what you're talking about and here we are so um a lot of good stuff on Underdog right now but I appreciate you stopping by the stream you know Alex gives out a lot of Banger plays I don't have DFS available to me in Pennsylvania for the ogs that are in the Stream all the time they know this they've heard this me say this a zillion times but if you're new I don't have DFS available to me in Pennsylvania when I lived in Arizona I had Underdog and prize picks we couldn't bet on Collegiate player props but obviously these would have been available to me and I really like this on Jake Irving um just because we have a lot of opinions now everybody has this line at four and a half so we're asking to bet the under five so the reason that this is plus EV is because if we go from that half strikeout jump OD Jam saying that you know FanDuel might put their line if it's under five it's going to be like plus 104 so what you can do here let me do this let me just show you real quick on Jake Irving and we don't even need to be logged in for this one so let's look at the Cubs game of you all Cubs game and then we're going to go to pitcher strikeouts so if I go to player strikeouts this is Irvin's main line of four and a half okay um maybe I can go to pitcher props maybe what they offer the under I don't know if they will Irvin alternate strikeouts n that's pretty much going to be it so they don't have an over under on his six and a half but you can kind of deduce that a plus 168 over five and a you know for him to get yeah minus 132 for five strikeouts always interesting to note sometimes guys they do this a lot what what book is it I believe it's FanDuel might be the first the no runs yes runs first inning prop sometimes they give you different odds but the point being is that if we went to under five and a half this would be pretty heavily Juiced so we can get this F5 it's it's a pretty nice I like this a lot on that play um let me go over to better really quick take a look conservative filters on plus cev clay that's a great question clay so what I would consider now um for myself easy ones to do and what AGM has set up is just the recommended filters you click to the you toggle on to this bad boy right here and then you just pick the sports books that you have accounts with and everything is set up there I have been using multiplicative default for a long time but talking to some various different people that I trust uh I wanted to try out a few of the different dvig methods best case is by far the most aggressive D method meaning that if where's the line the Pinnacle has let's see Pinnacle right here so Clayton kersa is strikeouts right it would be the opposite like this is a it would say instead of me betting maybe $45 they would tell me to bet on the best case scenario sorry $45 they would tell me to bet a whole lot more whole lot more than that let me put myself in the bottom right hand corner here they would tell me to wager a whole lot more than $45 so I know that the best case scenario is the most conservative approach the most conservative additive does a very good job of anything that's a long shot Underdog of plus 250 and higher it does a better job of calculating the EV Edge compared to multiplicative best case is an all gas no brakes [ __ ] fifth gear wide [ __ ] open let's go strategy where maybe I like how I got the thumbs up there on the thing where maybe like Pinnacles like no viig fair odds is plus 130 we're getting this at plus 131 and they're telling you to wager more than what they would here on this so that's why I like the most conservative approach that's another way to conserv be conservative for the maximum odds I am up to plus 200 today do I would say 150 if you wanted to do 140 here I don't put anything in the minimum odds for the maximum odds 140 don't go below 140 I mean don't set this to 120 or 130 you're going to miss out on some really nice opportunities but you don't have to go all the way up to 200 I usually live between 150 to 200 for my maximum odds Mark a with set this bad boy up for 40 cents you're you're good to go smash the plays on the screen that have an edge um look at you look at you so now we got the over 49 and a half when I bet the under 45 I'm not doing that so obviously we're not doing that that's a this is where I wouldn't play this because I already bet the under 45 I'm not going to bet the over 49 and a half um and then for TCU Stanford we just bet this under yeah we just bet this so we're already good here o twins Blue Jays like this as well um what do we got on profit X right here plus 109 okay so here like here's an example of like kind of even though this is the worst case scenario this is interesting so I use four books that I reference all the time as my Sharp books Pinnacle bookmaker and bet online there are times where I will bet on BET online and bookmaker two books I have accounts with I can't bet on Pinnacle they don't let American bets wager on their platform the Pinnacle doesn't limit betters they don't kick out winning betters they're they're they're really awesome so if you live outside the United States check them out so right here Pinacle profit X have the same odds so normally that gives me a hes little pause for concern but because bookmaker has it at plus 100 and bet online has it at minus 106 I would say that somewhere in between this this looks pretty deep decent on the over8 so I'm going to take I'll put $50 on this play on profit X yeah and there's clay there's nothing wrong with multiplicative I use multiplicative for like two and a half years only until I started live streaming a few months ago did I start to Tinker with these DG methods so you're in a great path with multiplicative um so that you know the odds range for me is just keep it at the minimum odds range nothing just leave it blank okay put your Market withth at 40 cents and then your plus odds I would say plus 140 plus 150 maximum odds is great so you're you're going to see plays like this because so often so often I most of my plays I would say I wage your onor in that plus 100 I bet on favorites but plus 100 to plus 140 range and the books get it wrong all the time because it's slightly worse than a flip of a coin right the fair odds right here they're saying it's 48.3% plus 115 um which doesn't make sense if we're betting this at plus 109 that's why I don't like this H I'm not going to do this one it doesn't make sense to me but to come back up here at the top that's Pinnacle odds like the Liberty right here minus 131 and a half minus basically oneus 132 and no Vig um circus at minus 150 here's another book that I use all the time like this is a solid play um and you're going to find some just different value in this plus range all the time these plus odds these minus odds it's a great range to be in if you really wanted to dial it up a bit further I would say go minus 150 150 to 150 or 150 to 140 that's where I would go with this and then you're in a great spot and you're going to you're going to see success don't don't measure this on your wins and losses measure it on your Roi because if you measure it on your wins and losses you're going to you're going to lose your mind because you're going to lose more bets than you win if you're betting on more Underdog odds but you know obviously you don't have to win nearly as much when it comes to the underdog odds because you're going to get paid out more all the time that we're doing on everything about this tool is we're getting paid out way more than we should let me check out the Arbitrage tool because I haven't getting anything over here what about his Underdog is a sharp book um in my opinion I don't think they're very sharp um especially when it comes to Esports I don't think they're particularly sharp so if you're looking at like the fantasy Optimizer and like I don't know maybe we're looking at like let's look at the midd tool right here look between prize picks an underdog like I don't know I don't really trust that Underdog super sharp I I just don't personally I don't really think any of these DFS platforms are particularly sharp sleeper Vivid piics hot streak boom better they're all kind of dummies and especially when we can get into some of the Esports lines classic right now when I want to look for an ort line there isn't but I just don't think so I don't really see it that way um you can go one and a half% you definitely can one and a half% and above is a good barometer if you want to go 2% too that's another good one for your EV percentage so we're talking about that I like that as well but um that's what I would say you might get Now Matt you might get different opinions dude from different people that's just my two cents but I also haven't played DFS in like two months since I moved back here why do I have all my offshore Sports books here okay it's fine so with Arbitrage guys this is how I first started out it's the best we're betting the over we're betting the under we're going to move me up to the top here so I'm out of the way so it's this is dope holy [ __ ] 11% return love this between fand and bet 365 you're going to see on my Arbitrage page that bet 365 is going to flood a lot of these okay so if you don't have bet 365 like me I don't cuz they limited me to pennies in the first two days shout out bet 365 but it doesn't matter how much money that you have available for Arbitrage betting for betting in general if you only have $25 total you're going to make either two bucks or five bucks on either book no matter what happens because this is 13 and a half there's no way in this soccer match there's going to be a half so that's why when we're Arbitrage betting you want to find plays that have a half hook love this love this a lot that clearly defines the winner and the loser now obviously the more money you have for sports betting the more you can make so if you got 27 and you're going to make 30 or 36 bucks don't expect to see too many arbs in the 11% range that would be my advice it's pretty um rare me click off bet 365 and let's see what else we have cooking you'll see some things change yeah things change this is where you're going to find your arbs so you start accumulating this two and a half two and a half just under two and a half next thing you know you start racking up six 8 10% that's the same thing with EV betting right you're you want to just gobble up as many plays as you can that have an edge focus when everyone's like well how much how many plays should I bet focus on obviously do it responsibly and what you're comfortable with but you want to rack up as many plays that have EV percent as possible that's the main goal get as much of that percentage as you can not always the bets aren't always going to work out your way but the more bets that you accumulate with an edge that's how you become profitable over the long run so um the this is obviously bet whale this another offshore sports book so here's a play khif Raymond on touchdowns I mentioned this before guys fliff is one of the very few Sports books that offers the under on NFL player touchdowns why does that matter because if you get a boost on DraftKings or FanDuel to put it on someone to score a touchdown you know let's say you get a boost on a 50% touchdown boost on any player to score touchdown week one DraftKings well now you have an even better ARB let's say you you just want to make risk-free cash you slap this on khif Raymond who knows maybe this goes from plus 500 I don't know maybe it goes up to plus 650 now maybe you got A50 $50 maximum bet boom you bet 305 over at fliff you're going to make 20 bucks risk-free any kind of boost that you get so that's why fliff is a really important sports book to have if you like to ARB for this football season because they're like the only book that offers you the opportunity to bet the under on touchdowns in the NFL and that's a big deal when it comes to Arbitrage betting so that's why we want them same here uh fliff and Fanatics it's a great this is a decent play normally I'd say any anything that's 1 and a half% EV Edge or one and a half% edge or higher for arbs is a good play but obviously anytime the plus odds 135 number is bigger than the minus odds and minus 125 135 is bigger than 125 that's an ARB so we can make some risk free cash on the over under or on these points um a strategy that's even better than Arbitrage betting that doesn't happen nearly as much is Middle betting and then we're going to check out some of the promos some of the books are offering so this one's pretty stupid yeah this one's dumb very dumb um on this Warrington wolves this is rugby so obviously I don't know rugby but between bet Rivers bada and bet 365 this is pretty crazy so this is why we like middle betting I'll do this example on this Brazilian soccer match this is more realistic which is again with flamingo um on their team total shots they're either going to have over or under between bet 365 and FanDuel so for easy illustrative purposes you bet 125 over on bet 365 you bet n you either bet 95 or 96 don't put Loose Change on the end of your bets no matter what happens if the over hits or the under hits you're going to make $4 in change okay it's an Arbitrage but excuse me if Flamingo gets exactly 13 shots on Target on goal then you're going to win both bets you're going to win fanduel's bet cash for 225 you're going to win bet 365's bet cash for 225 so middle betting is extreme low risk very high reward you're going to make money no matter what in this scenario but you have a small window to actually win both bets that's why middle betting is the best these opportunities don't pop up as much as Arbitrage betting but they're really sick or you'll get scenarios like this with Colorado State and Texas where you know you're going to push one and win the other you really want Texas to win by 24 points exactly and 24 is a good number for football football scoring 24 is good if this was like 19 I don't like that too much but 24 is great because then you're going to get your money refunded to you on fliff but you're going to win the bet on Fanatics so middle betting is really really cool really like that um no Matt I don't really know if anyone else not that I know of I'm I'm obviously very familiar with both Alex and a train shout out to both those guys trying to think of who else does it like this normally anyone that live streams May me book it with Trent but he's more like entertainment and he's just like bet the way he's more entertainment and he knows that he's not a winning Sports better but he doesn't care um I don't know too many guys and I'm not trying to put myself in that class too many guys that are going through this much detail and explaining it to you um we don't really have too many on AUM I would say to do it like this um it's just really me and myself Alex myself on OD Jam I'm just trying to think of other guys in the space cuz I'm not against other guys like I'm all about it if they give solid content if they help you make money then let's let's get you making some money so let's take a look um but that's all I know for myself at the moment but obviously I need to do a little bit more of my research most of the [ __ ] that you see on YouTube and I say [ __ ] because it's just picks oh it's week one college football here's the free picks and everybody wants free picks but they don't they just say they're just going to tell you bet Texas on the spread this week cuz I like them and they're playing at home and you're like okay sure but there you know we try to actually go through and break down exactly why because I got nothing to hide not every one of my bets is going to win I share with you my losing days but it's what I like to do so let's take a look at some promos over on DraftKings because I know they got a lot of promos and you guys get these promos I get them so I can't remember if I I think I lost that bet we got a Stanford TCU boost though now as you know I'm already on the under on this play so I'm partial to it $10 50% profit boost can we do this on a parlay I don't think so I don't think so we might be able to so what I would do here so this 50% profit boost anything that's 50% or higher really can turn any bet into a positive EV bet it really can so yeah I mean listen there there might be some guys out there that do decent with giving out their picks um what's what's his name he's always like hey what's going on YouTube uh guy Sports Boston that guy he might give out some good winners you know or the Pix dogs those dudes pix dogs um they might be all right I don't know I don't really follow them but they're all the same but that's you know that's the quickest way like for me in YouTube like to grow if I wanted to do that I would just sell out and just give picks but people love picks I get that but I like to go through it this way and kind of look at like what's look going on in the market so we can get this boost over at DraftKings so so this boost is really going to make it like I said plus EV either way meaning the price that we're getting if you thought Stanford was going to win or TCU was going to cover would be great typically since I can only bet $10 I love to like look at like what the no viig odds is on a money line play like on Stanford like I like to put this on big-time underdogs because it's like I I don't get excited about betting minus 310 and getting it down to minus 265 I did do this for Penn State though earlier this week but I'm not it was already a plus EV play so the fair odds is plus 276 on I love using this toggle up here guys sorry about that so we like the toggle so it already just to tells you what the no Vig odds are that's that's how you become profitable find out what the noig odds are the fair price odds are on the sharpest Sports books and then if we're getting a price better than that that's a sharp play that's what we want it's it's as simple as that so bet on lines plus 272 274 252 on Circa they're not as bullish they think Stanford's a little bit more of a f in terms of a dog than the rest of the books plus 276 so as long as we can get odds that are like basically plus two you know 28 280 or higher then I love this on the Boost so that's why I'm going to slap this so 250 we should be able to get a pretty good boost on this and it's just going to make it plus EV it's a long shot play but it's it's fun for me because it's not a ton of money so I don't mind this um but if we wanted to look we'll do this for me and then I'll look at maybe something a little bit more so yeah plus 375 this is great we'll look at maybe a little bit more of a sharper play so I'm just taking Stanford money line because why not I mean that Western Carolina game last night shout out to them they were in the game the entire way so if we're looking at this from a little bit more like okay here's where I would say DraftKings this is where I would I would bet the over 59 on DraftKings if we wanted to get into like sharp here's why because Pinnacle has this at the over under at 60 though granted the over 60 is a slight Underdog circum minus 110 on 59 and a half same with bet online bookmaker so we can get this at minus 112 but obviously we're going to throw a boost on it okay so I like this because draftking sticks out like a sore thumb I wouldn't necessarily bet this straight if you're like should I bet the over 59 straight I wouldn't because this half point if C if bet on Bookman move their odds up I bet you the Half Point would take this to like minus 115 but because we're getting such a big boost this is going to make this very attractive and it's going to be very plus EV so that's that's a sharp way to look at lines that's how I like to look at it the whole Market has this at 59 a half to 61 a half and we can get this over 59 but we can get a really good price on it thanks to the Boost that's how I like to do it so for more promos on DraftKings let's take a look and obviously guys let me know in the chat if you want to see see something else see another book we got a bar stool college football parlay boost okay four legs I'll check out the details really quick here $10 Max bet and we can do regular old school parlay same game parlay minus 500 apply okay that's nice we got game of the week profit boost pack same thing 10 bucks each profit boost on Clemson Georgia nerd a Texas um I can't bet on Collegian player props but sa you were saying earlier in the Stream about Carson Beck that could have been that could be one there and then down here the big noon mystery this might be more specific to the region that I live in because I'm in Pittsburgh because it's Penn State West Virginia we get 105% profit boost on any bet so 105% profit boost is guaranteed now I bet Penn State money line on a small boost earlier in the week and so I just kind of want to build like a parlay I would this is where I would love to build a parlay so DraftKings has this here and their main line is at 50 and a half okay so what I would do I'd bet the under on the 15 and a half see if I could parlay this I love to do under 15 and a half and then may me like P State minus 6 and2 that would maybe be my Play Let's see if I can do that if I have to bet this straight up I'm just going to bet the under but if they'll let me do a parlay we're going to take the under and then I don't care about total points they won't let me do any maybe alternate spread no of course not why would they let me do that so okay I really really really wanted to take Penn State minus 6 and a half or minus 7 the minus seven and a half is not something I'm interested in um but I will take them and I'm already on them so that's why I'll go with them again here and then do I get my Boost yeah we get a big old fat boost there okay maybe if you want to take West Virginia in the point or you know what would I take one maybe I take West Virginia plus seven and a half would that be decent yeah that would be decent all right let's do that instead be a man Billy get some better odds here we go now I'm on Penn State money line but doesn't mean that West Virginia can't do this now my $10 bet could get me six 50 bucks in profit so I don't mind that one at all so there's my same game parlay um naturally guys it's a good it's a very plus EV play because when you get a boost this big like if we go over to FanDuel um and so if I just took West Virginia in the under here you could see we're getting plus 234 and over here now on DraftKings we're getting this at was it plus 500 yeah we get a plus 500 so this is a super EV play like you could line shop till till you till the cows come home you're not going to get a odd odds range like that but I like that's that's kind of some things I like to do it on and you know it's a little bit different if maybe it was $1,000 free bet you know or boost up to 1,000 bucks we might go about this a little bit differently but still that's how I like to do it um we got some other boost I should probably give FanDuel a little bit of shine uh let's take a look to see on this games of the week again so Clemson Georgia Notre Dame Texas S&M let's take a look at these bets um on let's do this let's take a look at Clemson first really excited for these games it's going to be a lot of fun damn damn damn and let me know guys in the chat I mean who's your squad for college football I don't really have one I guess I'm more of a pit fan but I'm not really I'm a big pit college hoops fan I don't give a [ __ ] about their football team and I went to a small school D2 school for college so I don't really follow them either I don't really have a squad which I think kind of helps sometimes for college football because I don't have too many biases built in when it comes to college football so Clemson we're getting a 25% boost okay DraftKings so we're specifically looking here at DraftKings line so they had the spread of 12 books are a little bit all over the place bookmaker circa's got it here um so they like Clemson minus 11 plus 11 and a half we can get this at plus 12 I'm not against Georgia maybe Georgia Georgia could be decent let's look at this over under oh yeah so Dave you will know this school it's not um It's Not N the name's actually gone it's done they changed it because they merged with a couple other schools but it was California University of Pennsylvania the Vulcans of California so in Pennsylvania guys there's two small towns called Indiana and California on the M Central uh western side of Pennsylvania and they both have schools named Indiana University of Pennsylvania and California University of Pennsylvania so um but that's where I went to school golf course management shout out to my golfers out there I wanted to be a golf Head Golf Pro um 48 and we can get this a where where's DraftKings at they're they have this here okay so I wouldn't be against taking the because the under's here so because some books do have this at 49 and a half but they're just they're just wreck books not crazy about that I would say yeah 48 I kind of like the over on the 48 because Pinnacle a slight favorite B Line's a flip of a coin we can get really good odds on this and then maybe I would take 48 and then Clemson would it be Clemson or Georgia on the points because they have it here yeah I think I'm going to take Clemson plus 12 and I'm gonna take the under 48 all right let's go and bet this now yeah there you go Dave I've been to iup a handful of times great school good party school better party school than Cal C didn't like to do too much partying I would go a lot to a school that was about 20 minutes away from Cal more West called Washington and Jefferson fun fact it's the alma moer of NFL commissioner Roger Goodell um w&j it's a D3 School my buddy played football there and um they would they had like Cal had like 10,000 students and WJ only had like TW like 2,000 students and W Washington and Jefferson threw way better parties than Cal did can we combine these together in a little parlay I don't mind that uh doesn't look like we can do parlays we have to do this as a single so I can't combine Clemson um which sucks maybe if I just try to do this in the same game parlay would they let me do it if I see if I did it here in the under yes okay they will let me combine them bonuses so you just have to go into the same game parlay engine one other thing guys that I like to mention for being a sharp Sports better DraftKings FanDuel all of these Sports books love same game parlays that's what they want you to bet on why I say this is is because if you want to try to avoid limits but you want to kind of be Savvy about it try finding plays on the positive EV page that are in a same game parlay range I like to stick to two picks three picks at the most I don't like to get Beyond three picks when it comes to parlays you see me put out parlays the most you you normally see me do is three picks normally two picks okay um what is this $10 maximum bet there we go so we got some different action going on this is fun so why I mentioned this is the books are going to try to you know if you show them that you're sharp they're going to limit you so a smart way to get around that is if you can find plays on the positive EV page that are you know same game parlays like two days ago I gave out a same game parlay on the Angels tigers that hit it was very plus EV and it was in the same game parlay engine so these are other ways that you can start to look at books to try to get around limits or at least show them that maybe you're a schmuck even though you're not so that's just my just two cents off the top of my head so then we also get a boost on Notre Dame and Texas A&M odds are I would entertain the money line action here a little bit more minus 148 um compared to plus 124 so too big of a a little too large of a gap for me on Notre Dame I like maybe Texas A&M little more in the money line let's look at the spread here three is a big number really important number so here Here's my thought process reading the book behind me right here Billy Walter's book um he has this Theory where if you have not a theory it's what he likes he says I just read this last night where basically if a team is plus minus three because three is the biggest number in football that if you can find a play that's maybe under minus 170 he would rather bet the team on the money line at minus 170 or below so - 150 -40 then bet them at minus three on the point spread that's his philosophy and I'm going to take that here so I'm going to do Texas A&M on the money line let's take a look at this over under so of course draftking sits right in the [ __ ] middle um 46 to 46 and a half is not that big of a deal if the score ends at 46 that's fine all right so what we're going to do is I'm going to take the under 46 and I'm going to take A&M on the money line here that's going to be my final boost so let's go over to college football all right so naturally for this and we could go more if we wanted to but for the same game parlay engine this is just something that I like to make me mix in I could wager this is straight guys there's nothing wrong with going with this a straight wager for me personally in my unit size $10 doesn't move the needle for me so putting together these smaller parlays is what I like to do a little bit more um but obviously you know if your unit size is is maybe 20 bucks then just straight wager these you don't have to go with the Boost like these you don't have to so let's slap the boost on here and let's go ahead and grab that all right you can see guys I bet a decent amount of unders on this I also like to do some screenshots just so that I have um I like to put this in my bet tracker my personal spreadsheet that I have because I don't always track these on odds Jam the parlays but I do keep track of them on my personal spreadsheet because I keep track of everything um damn we're at an yeah let's check out Sam let's check out FanDuel let's end the stream on FanDuel um we can definitely do that all right so let's go over to nope not Arbitrage let's check out pop nope not promo [Laughter] converter um I am G to be streaming guys tomorrow morning uh at 9:00 am Eastern Standard Time and we're going to be focusing on more college football games then check out my uh on X let me go and clear everything let's go over to fandel and I'll throw up my ex because I haven't even thrown up my ex I don't think I have I haven't thrown up my email or my ex so if you guys want to reach out to me reach out to me on X um I have posted as my pin tweet on X um my live stream schedule that will be starting next Thursday when we have Reese Raven Chiefs uh kicking off week one schedule's going to change up a little bit instead of doing 9:00 am on Saturdays I'll be doing 11: a. but tomorrow I am going to be doing 9:00 a.m. so let me check my filters again because I know I was messing around with some stuff plus 200 40 that's fine okay and we're on the worst case scenario so not a massive edge here on New Mexico Arizona on the first half points we obviously hit this adley Rutman on a player hits earlier on a prop bet that I put together I don't mind this team total Corners um a newer Market that's out there let's go ahead and smash this one they're not going to let me wager 90 bucks let's take this off let's take this off will let me log in really quick we went through all the DraftKings boost or a lot of them I should say uh we didn't hit up any FanDuel there's a lot there's just a lot of boost going on out there guys could spend another hour going through the different boosts $27 sick thank you FanDuel that's awesome so we're going to bet that I would have bet 100 bucks if they would have let me bet it um recommended bet size was 90 but that's okay we just take what FanDuel gives us I don't have too much beef with FanDuel they' they've treated me well over the years Mark Andrews this has been out there I think the odds got a little bit let's take yeah one point it was a plus 110 it's been trending downwards a little bit um not a bad play I'm not going to mess with it right now it's just not a massive Edge this New Mexico play here um the over 31 and a half I like this a lot because one of my Sharp books is here at bet online I really like this play so I would say um I'm going to try to wager I I like to wager 100 bucks on this because I just have more confidence on this play how much would they let me put on it $339 okay it's not bad all right so there we go on that one and that I know that's a low percentage Edge there guys but I think it's I think it's valuable if nothing else I would say you know 50 bucks I don't mind that at all and then total touchdowns this is a fun little market for Friday night's game forgot that we have Thursday night and Friday Night Football down in Brazil with the Packers and the Eagles under 5 and a half total touchdowns not a market that I've ever wagered into I don't have any insight on this market yet in terms of like well fanduel's sharp or they're not sharp I don't I don't know um and then the under first half points in Troy Nevada yeah I mean this is a little bit of an edge here for sure I mean this is compared to the other books this is a decent Edge um I don't like that number per se but we could do that I'll stay away from it because it's so tight but we could do that all right guys I got to go rest the vocals take a break for a second obviously follow me on X I'll be back tomorrow morning at 9:00 a.m. eastern I re for another stream really appreciate you guys stopping by obviously enjoy yourself tonight don't drink and drive be safe have fun and I'll check you guys out tomorrow