2024 U.S. Election Scenario: Trump vs. Harris - A Battle for the Electoral Map

intriguing scenario for the 2024 US presidential election is under scrutiny according to a new poll by the New York Times Donald Trump leads Cala Harris by a small margin of 48 to 47 Nationwide this is significant because no Republican candidate has won the popular vote since George W Bush's victory in 2004 in this scenario we will examine the electoral map that could emerge if Trump were to gain a one lead at the national level looking at past elections Trump LED Hillary Clinton by two of the popular vote in 2016 and Joe Biden by nearly five points in 2020 before we get to the video five of the people who watch the video subscribe don't forget to support our Channel by subscribing next to scenario Donald Trump winning the popular vote by one could lead to significant changes in the electoral map first let's fill in Camala Harris's safe States the states where Harris is considered a sure winner is unusually short California Hawaii Massachusetts Maryland Maryland the District of columia and Maine's First District in these states Harris is expected to win by 15 or more on the other hand Donald Trump's list of safe States is much longer and includes traditional Republican strongholds this list includes the following states Utah new Wyoming Idaho Montana North and South Dakota Nebraska concluding the second district Kansas Oklahoma Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Kentucky West Virginia Indiana South Carolina Alaska and the second district of Maine Trump is expected to receive strong support in these states in this scenario there are two additional safe States for Donald Trump the first is Iowa located in the Midwest for more than half a century Iowa was known as one of the most competitive states in America in recent years however its political leanings have changed markedly Trump is expected to win Iowa by 15 or more this based on his performance in recent elections he won the state by eight in 2020 and 9 in 2016 over the last eight years Iowa's political trend has shifted further to the right one of the clearest indicators of this trend was the re-election of Republican Governor Kim Reynolds by more than 20 in 202022 given these factors Iowa will be solidly red Republican on this electoral map our second state Texas has traditionally been a republican leading state for more than four decades the last time the state voted for a Democratic candidate was in 1976 when Jimmy Carter won in the 2020 elections Democrats performed competitively in Texas but Trump won there by a near double- digigit margin in 2016 in this scenario Trump is projected to win Texas by at least 10 to 12 if Trump wins the popular vote nationally Texas is expected to become a stronghold for the Republican party for the first time since 2012 after the identification of the solid States Trump starts with 172 electoral votes while Harris has only 83 next up are the likely states which are expected to be decided by 7 to 15 points the likely States for Harris include Washington Oregon Illinois states that Joe Biden won by 15 or more in 2020 based on current polling and overall popularity Harris is well behind Biden's performance in 2020 possible blue states on the west coast Washington and Oregon will continue their traditional Trend and support vice president Harris in the midwest there is the state of Illinois strong Democratic states in the Northeast region New York Connecticut Rhode Island New Jersey and Delaware let's continue with the likely red States so first there is the critical state of Ohio in the midwest with 17 electoral votes Ohio stands out as an important Target for Trump according to forecast Trump could have a lead of around 15 points here the state which Barack Obama won in 2012 went to Trump in 2016 I was considered a certainty because it leans more conservative yeah while Ohio is in the probable category Florida was once known as one of the most contested states in America but its political leanings have changed markedly in recent years even if Trump loses the popular vote nationally he is expected to win Florida by about seven points he WIS Point Trump won Florida in both the 2016 and 2020 elections and is almost certain to win a third time in 2024 in this scenario if Trump defeats Cala Harris by one nationally the difference in Florida would be much more significant in this case analysts estimate that Trump could win Florida by a double digigit margin in the next phase of the analysis we will look at the Leaning States you expected to be decided by a margin of between two and seven points these states have a highly competitive profile and both candidates have a chance of winning but one side has a slight Advantage the only swing state for the Democrats is Colorado with 10 electoral votes Colorado Was Won by Joe Biden by nearly 14 points in the 2020 elections in this scenario however Harris's performance is assumed to be well behind Biden's if Harris loses the popular vote at the national level she could win Colorado by around seven points at most let's continue with the states that will lean for Donald Trump let's look at North Carolina on the East Coast North Carol Ina went for Trump in 2020 and he is projected to increase his lead in 2024 the state has voted for a Democrat only once since 1976 and Harris is unlikely to change that Trend Georgia is showing a similar Trend the state which went for Biden by a very small margin in 2020 is expected to return to the Republicans by more than five points similar to 2016 if Trump wins the popular vote at the national level Arizona also leans for Trump in this scenario they swung back to the Democrats in 2020 after a long Hiatus B but Biden's performance then paris's lagging behind in Trump's lead in the polls suggests that Arizona could swing back to the Republicans now let's look at Nevada although NADA has not voted Republican since 2004 that could change in the 2024 election the betting markets give Trump a 54 chance of winning here indicating a potential shift in the state's political leanings in the last two presidential elections Nevada Was Won by Democratic candidates Clinton and Biden by a very small margin if Trump wins Nevada it would be the first Republican candidate to win the state in 20 years to the Midwest Pennsylvania is Trump's favorite in the crucial Keystone State with 19 electoral votes betting markets give Trump a 55 chance of winning this state Biden's Pennsylvania birth was an advantage for the Democrats in the 2020 elections they look Rack in a little perro of 2 the SE day however in the 2024 scenario it is predicted that this Advantage disappears and Democrats May struggle in the state the political situation in the neighboring states of Wisconsin and Michigan looks challenging for Cala Harris all show Harris trailing in Wisconsin and leading by a small margin in Michigan however it is important to remember that the polls in these states were significantly skewed in favor of Joe Biden in the 202 elections according to 538 projections was expected to win Wisconsin by eight points while the actual result was a margin of only zero six s h fre B similarly it's in Michigan at the expected seveno margin was actually reduced to two at WC based on this past experience Donald Trump could be a strong candidate in these two states if even if he does not win the majority of the overall vote he is seen as the favorite in the three critical States known as the blue wall in the 202 for his presidential elections the results in Most states have already been finalized currently Donald Trump has 312 electoral votes and Camala Harris has 191 however the results of five states and one congressional district are still uncertain these are the most competitive areas of the election interestingly these uncertain districts are not traditional Battleground States instead they include States like Minnesota Virginia New Hampshire and New Mexico where Joe Biden won by seven points or more in 2020 let's look at New Mexico as was a relatively competitive state in 2016 with Hillary Clinton winning by just eight points in 2020 Joe Biden made limited progress here whereas in neighboring Colorado he made much more marked progress that the rightward shift of Hispanic voters could make New Mexico even more competitive in future election Cycles if Harris fails to win General electoral supports so it could make it harder for Biden to succeed in a state he won by double digits in in 2020 be Val with Taser and espert Psych the the two electoral votes saw a highly contested race in 2016 but in 2020 Joe Biden managed to Win It by almost double digits haris performance could make this state competitive again but the race in Maine will remain up in the air until the very end especially if Trump gained strong support in the second congressional district there are three states and one congressional district yet to be decided among them the as country Nebraska's second congressional district seems to lean Republican anding Hampshire also falls into the Republican leaning category to New Hampshire publ Noak also known as the granite state saw a highly contested race in the 2016 elections with Donald Trump losing to Hillary Clinton by just half a percentage point at in the 2024 elections if Trump increases his overall vote share he is more likely to win New Hampshire a state of Minnesota was a near Democratic loss in 2016 and since then its political trend has continued to Shi to the right and the coming election Cycles it may become increasingly difficult for Democrats to secure a victory here while Camala Harris is campaigning alongside the state's popular Governor Tim Walls she is unlikely to win Minnesota if she fails to win an overall majority a swing to the Republicans in the state that has consistently voted Democratic since 1972 would be a historic victory for Donald Trump Virginia nael with its 13 electoral votes plays a critical role at even if Joe Biden had stayed in the race he would have lost the state as in Minnesota Virginia is an important opportunity for Donald Trump to reach 270 electoral votes however the candidacy of Kamala Harris changed the balance nevertheless as far his overall performance is not looking very bright at the moment trace the latest New York Times poll shows that Harris is not on track to win the popular vote Minnesota Virginia are likely to be lost for the Democrats if Trump leads by a small margin of 48 to 47 if Trump wins the national vote by one Elling two it's estimating that he could reach as many as 340 electoral votes Al Harris could fall below 200 this scenario would represent a remarkable victory for Trump in modern American political history please leave your thoughts on the November elections in the comments