If Starship explodes, is that a successful first test? And what if it lands?

Intro good morning and welcome to the angry astronaut before we get on to Starship a quick update on what's happening with me over the course of the next week to week and a half I'll be leaving for Colorado Springs the day after tomorrow to cover the space Symposium there's some new technology being rolled out by Dianetics and I've been given an opportunity to cover that exclusively I'm kind of amazing I know what it is and it is exciting but I'm not allowed to talk about it so I'm going to be bringing that to you very soon and then immediately after that wraps up on Tuesday I'm going to be heading to Houston and then from Houston to Boca Chica so got a very full schedule ahead of me because of you guys support and also the support of a very generous person up in the Northeast who has given me Airline points and hotel points I've been able to carry out not only one but two a successful trip to Boca Chica well to including the upcoming one however this next trip unexpectedly we've got some issues I am not going to be able to get my hotels for free as I was hoping I kind of anticipated that though um and all of that is covered however the rental car is also a bit of an issue um and it's left me in in sort of a tight spot once again if you this is not your problem this is mine if you're not in an easy position to contribute to this issue then please don't do it and Skip to here however if you can I'm looking to raise about four hundred dollars to cover all the remainder of my expenses not a lot of money Heck if only you know one percent of my subscribers gave a dollar a piece I would be way past where I need to be so in any event the links are in the description if you want to contribute to that enough talking about my problems let's get on to Starship [Music] thank you [Music] thank you What is a successful test all right so a lot has been said about this orbital flight test but one thing in my opinion hasn't really been adequately discussed and that is what constitutes a successful test I mean I know what I'm going to Define as a successful orbital flight test as far as the 100K challenge is concerned Starship needs to complete a successful orbital test that is to say reach orbit and then at least attempt to land in Hawaii somewhere if they don't get anywhere near the pad or something that's fine as long as the ship or remnants of the ship come crashing down somewhere in the Pacific in the region of where they want it to go all of that is good if it doesn't make it that far that is not a completely successful test as far as the competition is concerned but what does SpaceX regard as a successful test if the rocket gets off the ground I mean and you know then blows up is that good enough or or does it have to reach Max Q or does it have to reach main engine cutoff what is going to be a successful test what should we expect from this first flight of Starship and what happens if Starship manages to achieve everything what happens if Starship not only manages to make it to orbit but actually manages to land as well What is SpaceX anticipating so the Moment of Truth has finally arrived or at least it will arrive the moment the FAA actually gives out the launch license which at the time of this recording still hasn't happened but that being the case what is SpaceX really anticipating here well it's very clear given the recent updates that they've made to their website that SpaceX is preparing for what they call a best case scenario and probably assuming that things may not go this well and it's interesting to see that the flight test timeline with the best case scenario does not actually include Starship Landing instead it has a timeline for what's going to happen up to the point that the Orbiter that is to say Starship ignites its six engines separates from the booster and makes its way into orbit there's no timeline for anything that comes after that it please not on their website so what does this mean what is SpaceX actually anticipating well I've got a grading system that I'm going to go ahead and lay out for you here and that's just my opinion of how well this flight test may go depending on what happens so what happens if Starship explodes on the pad fails to rise even a What happens if Starship explodes centimeter just blows up well in my book this is a D minus not an f a D minus and the reason for that is at least SpaceX managed to put everything together assembled the entire stack got the logistics in place to load the thing up and it got to the moment of ignition before it blew up that at least is a barely passing grade in my book and the consequences are not going to be as severe as if Starship Air Bursts a couple hundred meters off the pad and essentially duplicates what the end one rocket did in the early 1970s if this happens this unquestionably is an F actually if I could award an F minus I would because the consequences of an explosion like this are going to be utterly cataclysmic and one cause damage out to as far as 30 kilometers away from the pad shattering windows and also hurling debris as far as 10 kilometers if Starship does the same thing it's going to shatter many windows throughout South Padre Island possibly showering Spectators with broken glass and also some debris may get as far as South Padre Island and also Port Isabel not only that most probably the tank farm in the entire launch area will be utterly destroyed and even Starbase may suffer some damage this will delay the entire project tremendously this is something we definitely don't want to see happen so what if Starship manages to get a couple of kilometers away from the bad What if Starship lands not quite far enough to reach Max q but close and then blows up at that point I give Starship a c minus not a c but a c minus in my opinion a passing grade is going to be if Starship manages to make it through Max q without blowing up if it manages to get to that point in other words the moment of peak mechanical stress on the vehicle that will be a passing grade and I call that a c plus now interestingly enough SpaceX doesn't have too many line items besides this for example stage separation and then Starship ignition so in other words main engine cut off and then Starships engines igniting to take it the rest of the way into orbit if it manages to achieve Miko but not orbit in my opinion this is a B minus a b having been achieved if the booster manages to set down roughly where it's supposed to in the ocean if it manages to ignite the engines and reach space while that's an A minus in my book that is a huge accomplishment and frankly something that SpaceX doesn't really have laid out now they do have a diagram describing what happens after all of that but they don't seem to be seriously considering the possibility that this might happen even in its best case scenario so if Starship manages to get all the way back to a re-entry point and doesn't manage to actually successfully set down where it's supposed to but instead just come somewhere close or hits the pad and blows up something along those lines I regard that as an a grade and if Starship somehow manages to successfully land where it's supposed to off the coast of Hawaii and survives The Landing that's an A-Plus an a double plus an a triple plus if I could give it a grade like that accomplishing something that even the rocket Gods couldn't accomplish I really don't think SpaceX is gonna pull that off but if they manage to it will change everything immediately in the future of private space flight Starships future and by the way it's interesting to note that the fellow who created this animation sea bass a couple of years ago he anticipated that this would be sn25 making this flight so he got really close on the serial number and he also estimated that the flight would take place sometime in late 2022 kind of amazing but given the fact that Starship actually successfully lands he may end up being right about the serial number that successfully touches down we'll see by the way please subscribe to his channel his animations are awesome so some of you may think that I'm being a bit too hard on SpaceX if Starship actually manages to achieve Max Q that's going to be an amazing accomplishment and should deserve a better grade than a c plus or whatever the hell I gave it but here's my point Starship is not going to be a viable vehicle to take us throughout the solar system and especially lead to the Moon until it achieves 100 percent reusability Starship is gonna have to stick the landing on all of its flights again and again and again before Starship is going to be in an ideal position to take astronauts to the Moon after having refueled at least eight times now of course Starship doesn't actually have to take astronauts all the way to the moon Conclusion for Artemis 3 but nevertheless it does have to get out to the Moon expeditiously and also affordably it can't do that if we're crashing Starships on a regular basis these tankers are gonna have to survive and they're gonna have to be reused and they're gonna have to be able to refuel Starship fairly swiftly in other words eight successful launches and re-uses of Starship in order to completely refuel lunar Starship or at least load up a propellant Depot if we in intend to use that in order to get to the moon that's gonna have to be achieved before Artemis 3 can be carried out and somehow all of that is going to have to be achieved by 2026. I'm not even talking about 2025 for Artemis 3 anymore everybody knows that that's not going to happen but in the next three years Starship is gonna have to somehow achieve that kind of reliability and that degree of reusability which means that this initial test we hope is going to go really well I mean we're talking about Starship at least achieving a near complete orbit and at least trying to set down somewhere off the coast of Hawaii that's why I've set the bar so high in order for Starship to win the 100K challenge against Vulcan Centaur because this is the only way that Starship is going to become a viable competitor and a viable method for us to reach the moon Mars and other destinations just getting to space isn't enough wasting Starship in the process throwing away Expendable Starships is not enough it might be good enough for deploying huge numbers of starlink satellites because SpaceX stands to make a lot of money out of that kind of emission and could probably afford to throw away an Expendable Starship in achieving that but if we're talking about getting anywhere Beyond low earth orbit if we're talking about using Starship exactly in the manner that Elon Musk intended well that means Starship is gonna have to hit this extremely high bar and hit it very quickly smash that like hit that subscribe but please don't forget those notification bells and as always guys stay angry about space [Music] thank you