PICKING LSU vs USC from Las Vegas | Brian Kelly, Garrett Nussmeier vs Miller Moss, Lincoln Riley

a matchup of two teams whose defenses last year could not be much worse and they have made changes on the coaching staff in both cases both of them replacing Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks it's a Spider-Man meme it is and I'm telling you right now Jesse I I I'm not worried about either offense I think this game comes down to whose defense actually got better yeah I mean what what's what's the final spread on this one what we sitting at so the total 63 and a half we can pick the total too if you want Total 63 and a half I mean I'm are you're going to take an under in LSU USC uh I mean that's doubt that's A's use a four and a half Point favorite total 63 and a half so we're talking about a a shootout of of Epic Proportions which is exactly what I want in my Standalone Sunday night game Ryan Kelly cannot lose this game right I mean if you three straight years if you lose a spotlight showcase game where you're the only game everybody's watching and you lose as and a favorite two of those times at least I think this would be you talk about you the Florida game Florida Miami narrative narrative narrative this game is is close because you know USC is basically budget LSU they just haven't spent quite as much money in the transfer portal they don't have quite as many good players uh and but you still still say hey their coach has a track record of winning you know a lot of big games um I don't know I mean this is I'm actually surprised that this spread is is not even a little bit tighter just because I do think there's some real concerns about LSU's front seven uh and yet it's not exactly like we have a ton of answers about you know what Deon Lynn's working with uh at USC it's not like he got to bring over all those hosses and dudes he had over at UCLA he brought some of them though he did bring some Liu latu is obviously an Indianapolis cult but look you I'm going to turn the question you asked on you you asked can Brian Kelly afford to lose this game can Lincoln Riley afford to lose this game remember they've got Utah State next week but then they've got at Michigan and then Wisconsin comes like things get very tough very early for USC if they don't win this game they're in a world to hurt especially like let's say their offense is not as dynamic as as maybe they' hoped and LSU does play well on defense that gives you no confidence with them going into Michigan no you you're not wrong but I I would I still think there's more pressure on Brian Kelly frankly just because he's got a he's got a bigger crooked number next to his name here LSU I think has you know they've at least been considered a fringe playoff team uh you know in in this new 12 team era I think if a school like LSU or Penn State doesn't make it in in this first 12 team playoff um their their fan bases are gonna be pretty rabid rabidly angry because I think Brian Kelly's bought himself like winning the SEC West in year one helps having a heisen trophy winner in year two even though the defense stunk helps like he's he's bought himself time and you look at LSU's 25 recruiting class like what what's been LSU's problem like for whatever reason the LSU cornerback Factory seems to have shut down like you look at that recruiting class for 25 they're reopening that factory so I think they're addressing the needs but the defensive needs Personnel wise have not been addressed so again like we talked about with the Georgia Tech game like we talked about with the the North Carolina game does having new defensive coaching staff dramatically improve the defense when the defense is a lot of the same guys and I think that's so de Lyn at USC at least got to bring in he brought in a couple guys from UCLA brought in some other guys from around the country where you you see where he was trying to bring in the body types that he prefers because obviously the defense Alex Grinch ran one of the big criticisms of Alex Grinch was that especially up front the body types were not what they needed to be and I mean all you got to do is look at what Brent vbl had to do on Oklahoma's defensive line as soon as Alex left like they had to immediately import 300 Pounders they didn't have any and you've seen Alex Grinch get a bunch of long DBS he wants long you know rangy Corners he got some of those so Percy Dan and Lyn get those guys so it will be a fascinating kind of case study because LSU really didn't change much Personnel wise but did hire Blake Baker from Missouri does Blake Baker alone and is and the staff members he brought do they change that much and does De Lynn change that much that's that's my question and the thing is like we may not know because LSU replacing Jaden Daniels but also replacing Malik neighbors and Brian Thomas Jr two first round receivers do they have a first- round receiver on this team I don't know I do know they have the best offensive line uh in this game and that's why I'm I'm gonna that and the the Brian Kelly desperation just him needing this win uh is why I'm gonna go with I'm gonna go with LSU here it it it's it's kind of a weird number it's in that you know Bill Simmons Vegas Zone where it's four and a half you know that's kind of an odd number um not crazy about that but again can Danton Lyn teach a new teach a new group of dogs how to how to tackle because as we talked about with the Georgia Tech coach you you know uh Tyler tantui was able to do that um that was a lot of the same guys and Georgia Tech looked fundamentally and very very much improved there USC I mean it was a it was a you know car crash you know cash Crash Test Dummies you know trying to tackle folks a year ago it was just pathetic so yeah uh have they fixed that we'll see you know Colin Lacy and and some of these guys that LSU has on the perimeter I think they they still like those guys even as as you mentioned you know you you did lose a pair of first round wide outs yeah they bring in CJ Daniels from Liberty yeah la he still there so they they got talent there Garrett nus we we think is going to be a very good quarterback too but and I think Miller Moss gonna be just fine like I realized they brought on Jaden mava and it took a while for for Lincoln to name Miller Moss the starter I think he's gonna be fine too this is all about the defense I think LSU covers here I think it's a fun fun game I'm gonna say LSU covers and take the over so you got you got him hitting the 63 and a half I'll say LSU covers but but it's gonna be they're not gonna get 63 and a half okay taking the under which means somebody's defense got better somebody even it's got better and I think as we saw in that Florida State game you know sometimes these possessions can shrink up quickly well and and okay while we're talking about that the helmet communication we had coaches tell us in the offseason this could lead to more huddling because it's just easier to tell the quarterback and then he tells the team it may slow teams down we only have the the few games we saw and some of these like I saw I watched SMU play they still had all the signs they were still trying to go very fast last year said they want to go faster right so I I do think we're going to see some teams try that but I also think we're going to see some teams slow down so some of these some of these team some of these totals may have to come down as the season goes on because we may just see fewer possessions in games yeah we're going to find out and and you know it's lovely that college football can't call it the the two-minute warning we have to call it the two minute two timeout you call it whatever you want everybody call it whatever you want thank you so much for watching just a reminder subscribe to this channel right here so you never miss an episode of Andy Staples on 3 and by the way watch all the other great videos on the Onre Sports YouTube channel