Try-Scorer Trends & Analysis | Round 27 | 2024 NRL Season

How To Pick Your Try Scorer Bets hey guys welcome to the invest NRL round 27 TR scorer predictions preview going to go through all the games coming up this weekend go through who my TR scorer bets are this week we have 14 of them we're going to have at least one if not two or three in every single game and so I'm going to run through you know which players they are and why I like them to score a try in their games coming up this week the way we do this and the way we've done it over the past few weeks and this week we go for five consecutive weeks in profit on our Tri scores is using a couple of tools from the NRL bet finders which you can access through the description here we're looking at each matchup and going through the positions where they score their tries so are they at fullback right wing Right Center you know left wing in the halfes front row Etc this column here so for the Broncos this section here tells us their average tries they score per game through that position and where that ranks overall in the league of NRL so the bronos score the third most tries through fullback and then this column over on this side shows us where the opposition for that game in this case being the Melbourne storm concede their tries so effectively we're looking for green numbers in this column and red numbers in that column what that sets us up for is a positive situation for that player to score a try that that team scores their tries through that position and their opposition concede tries at a higher rate than the league average through that position position as well what we then do is compare that to the a player playing that position obviously so using the lineups identifying who's going to be playing right wing left Center etc etc and then why find that player in the trends for this season and look at their overall and recent form so this season how many tries have they scored which games do they score those tries in what's their overall average and this column is particularly key how many games that they've played have they scored a try is it you know 60% is it 43% is it 14% And then the only other thing we look at is how they've performed previously against the opposition that they're going to face so that's the overview of the system so you understand that I'm not just picking random players I'm not just you know making random guesses and just hoping that those players score a try it's based off finding really good situations to back that player and then of course we want to look at what odds are on offer for that player to score a try and whether I believe there is any value in that price on offer because there's plenty of times a player will have a good situation however they'll be offering something crazy like a130 or $140 for them to score a try so in that situation I wouldn't take it but there's plenty of times we find players in really great situations and they're offering $180 $220 $350 for them to score a try and in those situations then I'm happy to bet quickly recap last week so this is the overview of last week's bats we started the round really well hitting both plays in the Cowboys Melbourne storm game then trovich scored in the manle Eagles Bulldogs game missed a couple there for Bronson CH and too didn't scor Tera scored sio scores lak scored Theo scored C didn't score and then Sam St Street got a double for the sharks so through Saturday night so from Thursday to Saturday night was sitting at 8 and 3 overall on the selections however Sunday CER wasn't able to score in the game against the knights and then due to the injuries with the roosters The Roosters Rus game ended up being really low scoring and we had three Selections in that game however I did mention we're only half staking Jennings and Manu but overall another week in profit and that's why it's so important to get the best odds that you can to shop around and find the best odds this week it's really really easy because bet 365 pretty much have the best price on every selection that I like other than one that makes it really easy to make sure you're getting the best odds and then following the staking as I've always said I recommend with tri scores backing every player to win one and a half units if they score a try if you're working with a higher betting bank rle then you can bring that down to backing every player to win one unit instead so now going for five winning weeks in a row Broncos vs Storm we're going to have 14 selections this week firstly Bronco storm game on Thursday night there really isn't any good situ ation with the Broncos here you'll notice where they predominantly score their tries like right Edge is probably the best situation as the storm don't defend that side as well and they do concede the tries out wide but just don't have you know that much confidence in the Broncos you know scoring three or four tries in this game to make it really worthwhile for having a b but if you were going to look for somebody I would be looking towards the right wing right center for the Broncos this week however on the Melbourne storm side of things there are two players is I want to take and it's largely due to the fact that the Broncos right Edge defense is near worst in the league and I think this is a game where the storm are going to want to get their confidence up rolling into finals put up a big win and they're going to attack that right Edge for the Melvin storm on that side you have will Warrick on the wing and Nick meany playing right center there is the chance of xavia coats coming into the lineup think they're going to make a late call with him he'll go on the left wing replacing Grant andon in that position if he were to come into the side which just is something to be war of but I think the storm very tactical side to going to Target the Broncos right Edge and you'll notice like the L left Edge is significantly better there 16th rank right Edge defense third ranked left Edge defense so I think the storm going to push their attack that way hence why the first play on the right wing for the melbour storm is Will Warrick and overall this season if we bring up the record WS um he currently sits just here in tries this season scoring a try in 45% off games um scored a double a few weeks ago in round 23 comes back into the team after not playing last week he's had three games against the Broncos and scored a total of three tries only game he didn't score him was when the storm were shut out and on that right wing I think he's going to get plenty of chances to cross for a try in this game on be 365 he's paying $170 to score a try in this game and then the other selection in this game if we go to the storm as well and we come down here to the second row with my way thinking that the storm going to rack up a score here I want to Target their second rowers the Broncos don't really defend this position all that well playing second row for the storm this week are BL CA and Laro and the player I want to Target is CA we look at him overall in the season he has scored a try in 43% of matches he scored three tries across his past two games and he did score two tries in his past game against the bris Broncos so does have good form against them 11 tries overall in the season which is very good for second rower and he didn't score in the first three games overall in the season there's that game there against the Broncos where he scored two returning after not playing last week he'll be fresh and be looking to cross for a try and on B 365 he's paying $233 to score a try in this weekend's game the um other second rowers obviously not as strong at crossing the line and screw tries ASAS he's the one that I'm electing to go with um so those are the two plays in the bris Bronco's Melbourne Tigers vs Eels storm game West tigers against the Paramount eels firstly are with the Tigers they're going to get opportunities you'll notice here the eels are one of the worst Edge defenses in the league compared to the second row and interchange where they're the best um at the league in not conceding tries to those positions uh on the edges particularly the left Edge they con seeed stacker tries looking towards like the left wing left center for the Tigers up potential plays but um just don't see enough consistency in their players to be making it worthwhile of a bet Charlie stains for the Tigers is probably like your most likely TR score but out of $160 65 there isn't a great deal of value there so I'm going to I'll not have any plays on the Tigers but I do want to have one play on ears cuz like looking at this game we could find a couple of bets here as both sides are poor defensively but feel like this is one play that massively stands out we just hit that play we should get the win and we can move on from this bottom of the table clash and that's on the eel side right wing the eel score the second most tries through this position they're one of the worst left Edge teams but near best right Edge attacking sides and the West Tigers the worst right wing defense cons uh tently ranked 17th in the league playing rightwing for the paramedic heels is Meo he's coming off a hattrick last week he scored a total of five tries across his past four games against the West Tigers so that's at least a try in each of those games and overall this season he scored 15 tries scored a try in 73% of matches overall this season averaging 1.4 tries per game this is just an ideal bet against the worst defense against his position in the league on bet 365 he's paying a157 a s TR $155 on Tab anywhere around that Mark um it's definitely a150 or above it's definitely worthwhile of a bet for a player with this setup and I think he'll definitely cross for a try in the early game on Friday night then we have Rabbitohs vs Roosters the rabitos versus Sydney roosters this is a bit of a tricky game um to find good selection in um if Alex Johnson was playing then the left wing for the rabitos would probably be the most ideal bet but with him out of the side tyar Monroe is playing left wing for the rabbitors he is coming off a double last week however I'm just not going to force bet in this game but is probably the most likely Tri scorer for the rabitos this week however is only around that $180 Mark so once again you know similar to the Tigers it's not a great deal of value and going against AR rooster side that overall is a really good defensive side and I think the rabos are going to struggle to score there's not really many other good situations for the rabbos they score a number of tries through the fullback position however the roosters defend that really well and they also score tries through the halves and front row but the roosters defend that position pretty well as well so I'm going to leave out any potential plays on the ridor on the rooster side of things I am going to make a play so Anthony tupo is out this week So that obviously affects the left edge attack of the roosters and I think they're going to push a bit more play towards the right Edge and on the right wing you have Dominic young and going against the ravos rightwing defense ranked 15th in the league now Young's paying like a140 or so to score a try he's coming off four tries across his past three games he scored three tries across four games against the rabitos this season he scored 19 total tries scoring trying 74% % of games this season looked at a couple of ways of playing this looked at you know for him to score two plus tries looked at him to throw a hattrick as well which I don't think is the worst bet at all if the roosters were all strength if Walker and Brandon Smith were both playing then that three plus Tri would definitely at you know $450 kind of range would definitely be a bet i' be considering however the bet I'm going to take in this game is him to score the first second or third try so on Neds or lad broses if you scroll down go into the tri scorer marks you got first second or third Tri scorer young paying $3 15 um that's across both sides so the first three tries in the game he'll need to score one of them for that bet to be winning and that's the only play I'm going to have in this game I more so want to watch this game just to see how the roosters go get a kind of guideline on what tactics they going to implement going into the finals next week in the dragons verse Raiders game Dragons vs Raiders um firstly with the dragons they score a lot of their tries through the fullback and right wing in Zack LX however the Raiders defend both those positions really well centers is kind of the situation where dra camber don't defend that well if you notice against centers they're ranked 16th in the league against Wingers they're ranked third in the league however the dragons don't really have the center tric scoring power to take advantage of that and outside of that you could look at second row that's another position where the dragons score a number of tries however camber ranked second in the league defensively against the second row with these factors being considered not going to have any TriCore bets on the dragons however I am going to have two on the Raiders firstly on the right wing they rank sixth in the league against the 11th defense in this game Xavier Savage who plays right wing for camra overall this season he has scored a try in each his last two games and also scored five tries across his last seven games averaging a try in 57% of games this season against the St George aaar dragons um he scored one try across his past two games and gets a really good opportunity to score a try in this game he's going to be the first selection and if I jump over to Beth 365 bring up the odds for him to score a try he's currently paying $1.95 on on 365 to score a try the other player I want to go with in this game also for the Raiders is in the second row so overall this season the Raiders are ranked third this season tries through the second row and if you look at the second rowers for this game you have Hudson young Sagi and smithies we bring up the TriCore Trend Hudson young first of all scored nine total tries trying 33% off games then you have smithies who hasn't scored to try and you also have Sagi who was coming up a try last week but only two overall in the season in 22% of games the majority of those tries have come through Hudson young hasn't scored in the past six weeks it's a little bit of a concern just that recent form um but against the dragons he scored three tries across his past four games and scored in three of those four so one try in in three of those four games the fact he just gets such a good situation here against the worst defense in the league against second rowers I'm happy to um jump back on board and back him in this game he's paying $2.70 to cross for a try against the dragons so those were the two plays we're going Xavier Savage and Hudson young both to score tries the Bulldogs vs Cowboys Bulldogs take on the Cowboys and uh this is a really important game for both sides to lock in a home final with buron out for the Bulldogs you know makes things a little bit tricky but there are still two plays that I want to have in this game one for the Bulldogs one for the Cowboys firstly for the Bulldogs they're not like the greatest attacking side I think they're ranked ninth off the top of my head in points scored however for them to score enough points to win this game especially without burden in the side um they're going to need to Target the right edge of the Cowboys you'll notice the Cowboys right Edge defense ranked 14th in the league their left Edge defense is best in the league so if the Bulldogs you know keep p pushing the ball towards their left Center left Winger they pretty much have no hope winning this game their next best option is you know forc him some tries through the middle but their best situation is going towards the right Edge where Cowboys don't defend all that well Bulldogs right wing ranked 11th in the league and like recently they've been scoring tries to Cherry an outo car but I don't think that's going to work as well this week like it's obviously possible but it's just not like when in terms of playing the percentages what's going to work what's not going to work they're going to have an easier time of it going to the right however through their right wing this season um skeleton's playing rightwing this week it's not he's not the greatest bear but outright Center Steven kryon returned to the team um he didn't play in the game last week um but did score a try in the week prior and against the Cowboys he scored he didn't score in their last game but the game before that he crossed for a try overall this seon season Steven Cen has scored nine tries averaging a try in 37% of games and I do like him to score a try in this matchup scored try in two of his past four games and guess an ideal situation like for the Bulldogs to win they got to be pushing towards that right Edge and on bet 365 for cry in the score tries paying $280 and like kind of when you compare it he has a ideal matchup compared to Josh adakar who is in really good TR scoring form if we come back over here has scored five tries across his past five games and is scoring at 50% overall on the season however his matchup and you're being asked to take $172 compared to $280 for a player that has an ideal matchup and is of course able to um score tries for the Cowboys this season they've scored a lot of tries through felt and Valentine holes on the left Center but this week you know when you look at the Bulldogs defense they're pretty much ranked in the top four in majority of positions in the backline other than right center but just don't have a ton of faith in Valia to uh be able to capitalize on that and score try just overall this season um if we look at his numbers only scored the two tries so a pretty low percentage bet to try to take advantage of that so if we keep looking through the second row is the other area want to Target the Cowboys score the second most tries per game through the second row and the Bulldogs this is their worst defensive position that means the Cowboys second roll is get an opportunity to capitalize have luky nanay and Ruben Cotter Jeremiah nanay is the player I want to Target for the Cowboys this week uh this season he scored a total of 13 tries averaging a try 50% of games overall and then against the Bulldogs he hasn't scored a try but I think the situation ignoring that sets up well for him he scored a try in his last matchup and you know was very consistent during the early part of the season and I think he can capitalize on last week's try and put another one on the board this week for him to score a try he's around the similar price as Steven Cen at $2.75 so those are going to be the two plays for this game Jeremiah Nan for the Cowboys 275 and Steven Cen at $280 penth are big big favorites at home Panthers vs Titans to beat the tight end and they do have a reason to win this game so I'm expecting you know penth to win this game and win it comfortably and am going to have a play for both sides so firstly for the Panthers feel like Dylan Edwards gets a good opportunity here the Titans to see the most tries in the league to the opponent fullbacks so I feel like he's going to get his chances but the way um the penrith have been playing recently they've been pushing a lot of their attack towards the left Edge and playing left wing for the Panthers is near tra and scroll down here as you can see there and overall this season tra scored 16 tries he scored four tries across his past two games and scored a try in 47% of games this season so um pretty consistent it kind of comes down to um like the price that we're going to get for him and whether that's worthwhile backing but I think with his recent form the way the Panthers have been playing against this opposition you know even though like Cowboys numbers are pretty good like they ranked fifth right Edge and fifth left Edge defense over recent weeks you know pretty much since the game against the Broncos their teams have just been scoring left right and Center against them so I'm only going to have the one play and it is going to be for the Panthers on tra he's paying a162 to score a try in against the goal coach Titans he's going to be the first play in this game I think just the way penth are playing fact they're going to run up a score um I can see him Crossing again with his recent form and then for the goal Coast time this is kind of a little bit more of a low percentage play but for a couple of reasons I can't just let this selection go and not back it we've backed this player a number of times and I've been successful back him a number of times and he gets a really good opportunity here to add to his overall Tri tally this season talking about the left wing for the Gold Coast Titans in Tom Perera pretty much with the penth Panthers defense they only really can see tries to opponent left Wingers and if we look at the Titans they only really score majority of their tries through that position their second row you know cross for a few fullback a few as well but you know they do most their scoring through that left wing C Pereira is sitting at 23 tries on the season his recent form's been a little bit of a struggle scored a hattick against the roosters but hasn't scored in the few games surrounding that um did score a try in his only game against penth so it has been done he scored trying 65% of matches this season a lot of the times been paying like that $130 $140 we've shopped a bit better got a $150 $160 for him most of the time this week he's paying $210 to score tries $210 365 or points bet when I had a look there's a couple of $2 and $25 floating around as well um but at that price with the setup where this is really the only position where teams have been able to crack the Panthers line consistently and you know the Titans the way they already play favors this matchup so at that price can't let it go around so going TOA and K Pereira the manly seag gos Kela Sharks game this Sea Eagles vs Sharks is a really good game mainly small favorites at home there's not really a great deal of good situations here for Manley um they scor a lot of tries to their backline there without trra boic this week where they ranked number one in the league sharks defend that position really well so it wasn't even going be a good setup for trovich regardless looking um at the centers and Wing positions the Sharks right Edge defense is slightly better than their left Edge defense now with Jason Sab out for the seagulls on the right wing think they're going to push more of their attack towards the left Edge which is also where the Sharks slightly worse defensively so if we look at the team lineups Lehi hoi playing on the left wing the recent form for him has been very very good I missed all the way up to round 11 but since then I scored a try in 64% of games scored a try in each of his last six starts coming off a double last week so with that form he's in I'm feel like he's going to get his chances and also with those outs for the seagull um H is going to get plenty of chances so he's going to be uh the first bet he's never played against the Sharks previously on bet 365 bring up the odds he's paying $183 to score try which I feel like is definitely a fair enough price for a player in this form with a game setup where it's going to be um favorable for him both tactically and with key out uh to his teammates then for the Sharks uh our fullback they don't score tries where Manley do concede High number the other areas where the manly seagull can seeed tries the right wing and in the second row so firstly on the right wing you have SI ca for the Sharks their left Winger mol Hollow who also crosses for a lot of tries doesn't get as good of a setup here against this manly defense um but their right winger definitely does and so I'm going to play ca he hasn't scored a try in his last three games but does score a try in 55% of games the season sits at a total of 14 and has scored a try in each of his last two against Eagles for him to score triers paying even money on bet 365 so he's going to be the seel second selection in this game and then the final one I kind of touched on it a little bit looking at the second row for the Sharks they're ranked sixth in the league Manley can see the 13th most tries through this position for the Sharks their second row this week Nur Wilton and cam mckinness Nur is a player I do want to Target for the Sharks second row he scored a try 33% of games this year scored in three of his task force comes into this in really good form and majority of his tries have all been in the second half of the Season which um suits as well when I'm looking for TR scores I'm looking for those Trends looking for these patches where players are scoring tries and kind of trying to avoid them in patches you know where they're not scoring because when you watch teams performances a lot of this hinges on their tactics and how they're approaching the game against a particular opposition or just what's been working for them if you know constantly going to the left Edge is working for a side then they're going to keep on doing that until it's not working or they come up against a team where it's very likely not going to work so with the form theor is in important game for the Sharks you should step up and have a good game and on bet 365 we'll have to go over to the players section click the drop down here theor is paying $33.75 to score a triy he's going to be the third selection that game so we got h 83 ktoa at $2 and Brit Aur at $33.75 then we have the Newcastle kns taking on Red Cliff Dolphins team that wins this game makes finals this season Knights vs Dragons and will take that eighth spot pending um you know and this game ending in a draw if nobody wins which is very unlikely to happen so for this game just going to have the one dry score looked through the night and where they are where they score the majority Tri through left Center this is the Dolphins best defensive position so doesn't really set up all that well for the knights hence why give the Dolphins a good chance of winning this game as an underdog even though they're on the road for the Dolphins the player I want to Target for this game gets a pretty good match up here he's playing in a different position as we than we've seen majority of this season I think it is working really well as we saw last week for the Dolphins and against the knights who are the 12th rank left Edge defense compared to the four ranked right Edge defense think Red Cliff are going to push a lot of their play towards the left Edge and the players to capitalize on that Jack bosto on the wing and taby fedo playing Left Center and he's a player I want to back in this game looking at his record overall in the season keep in mind a lot of these tries were scored at fullback he has scored 14 and scored in 60% of games but did score a double last week against the brisen Broncos playing Left Center and I'm happy to back him to score a try here against the knights knowing that a lot of the players go is going to be going towards that side bosck is the other player you could consider he hasn't scored in his past four so a little bit of a concern um but I think either one of these players around the similar odds you can kind of go either way whichever you prefer but I'm going to I'm go personally I'm going with tabai fog for tab fog scor TR paying $230 as you can see a little bit shorter on Boss St feel like you know as I said you can go either way but with that slightly more value for ham Tabo he's the one that I'm going to go with so I'm going to recap all the selections Broncos vers storm we're going W robrick and elisea tigers eels makeo rabido roosters Dominic young score the first second or third try dragons Raiders Hudson young and Xavier Savage Bulldogs versus Cowboys Steven k Jeremiah Nan Panthers versus tians S Tera and alfana KH Pereira seagull sharks we have three Lehi hati C CA and Britain theora and Knights versus Dolphins hamiso tab Jules 30 up at 365 they're the 14 selections for the games this week if you're following along good luck final round of the Season uh few good games coming up this weekend if you want the rund down on each match up make sure you check out the betting Trends video where we go through the odds who I think is going to win etc etc what else I'm considering betting on in these games but um these are the tric selections we go for five straight winning weeks this week we do have a number of selections kind of compared to last week a lot of the players we selected were at shorter odds this week we have a lot more around that $2 to $280 kind of range and that means depending on the odds you don't need as many winners in order to be profitable so always remember only back each player to win one and a half or one unit that way you're giving yourself the best chance of being profitable over the long term so good luck this weekend if you want to use the bat finders for yourself study them throughout the rest of the season check the link in the description and if you're interested in betting on American Sports with the NFL starting on Friday I'll also put the link to my us Sports uh YouTube channel where I'll be posting my thoughts on a lot of the NFL games and other us sports like the NBA MLB and NHL so definitely check that out if you're interested in more sports to bet on over the summer before the NL returns next season also make sure you subscribe because I'll be posting videos right throughout all the way up to the Grand Final then I'll be posting lots of other videos over the offseason how teams have perform where their strengths are where their weaknesses were what they need to improve on to help you guys prepared to make a lot of money next season betting on the NRL appreciate you watching hope you guys have a great weekend [Music]