Can Texas Rangers afford to keep Nathan Eovaldi in free agency while avoiding the luxury tax?

the Rangers finished off a season sweep of the white socks with two of their postseason Heroes Nathan eovaldi and Cory Seager with the Rangers putting both Travis Janowski and Robbie Grossman on waivers had some questions is it because of cheapness or is it something else entirely we're going talk about all that and more on this episode of Locked on Rangers let's get into it you are locked on Rangers your daily Texas Rangers podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every [Music] day you are locked on to the World Series champion Texas Rangers I'm Bryce Patrick a cripplingly addicted Texas Rangers Fan covering this team for 11 seasons including all six as the founder and host of this podcast thank y so much for making lockdown Rangers your first listen every single day if you're not already you can follow me on Twitter at Bryce Patrick you can follow the show at lockon Rangers Hit subscribe on your favorite podcasting platform and on YouTube where the best way you can help grow a show is is to comment nearly any single thing below now before we get into what it means for the Rangers putting those two World Series champs on waivers some concerns about Ray Davis's pocketbook that could lead to Texas possibly losing Nate e evaldi in the offseason this episode is brought to you by prize piix the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports go to priz pick.com / lockon MLB and use code all overc case locked on MLB for a first deposit match up to $100 now the story of last night's game was two things nathany evaldi being exceptional and Cory Seager hitting Milestone Homer number 200 of his career to give the Rangers the lead the Rangers would get one more run off an RBI from Wyatt Langford but really the hero the real hero of this game was Nathan e evaldi having one of his best starts of the season seven shut out Innings a career or a season High tying 10 strikeouts just one hit a little single up the middle couple of walks and he looked absolutely fantastic but there are some concerns with Nathan e evaldi in the long term mainly is he going to be back next year I don't know there are definitely some questions on that and some questions about the Rangers pocketbook I talked earlier this week about Ray Davis not extending Chris Young a contract offer how I am starting to get a little bit more concerned went back and looked it up someone in the comments made me aware of this that GMS can work without a contract extension because those contract extensions usually take a long time to happen so just because Chris Young's contract is up after the season doesn't mean that he can't keep working as the r Rangers GM while they are hashing out the finer details of that point it happened with Andrew fredman and the Dodgers and I can't remember the other couple examples of that happening but there is precedent so maybe I was a little bit too alarmist on Wednesday's show but still losing Nathan eovaldi is a real question at this point now his contract that he signed was an absolute bargain the Rangers I mean really got an incredible deal when they signed Nathan eovaldi to that 2-year deal helped them win a World Series has been the best pitcher on the team since the Rangers signed him was an All-Star was a World Series champion was absolutely a Workhorse in the postseason and the Rangers don't get anywhere near winning that World Series without Nate e of Al's help but the questions with e of Aldi as they have been with pretty much every free agent starting pitcher or just every Star pcture on the entire planet is can they stay healthy and this year for the most part Nathan evaldi has last year he made 25 starts 144 Innings this year at 24 starts 140 Innings after his seven inning start last time out the Rangers have 28 games left so he's got five starts from now until the end of the season remaining to get 16 Innings is what he needs for that contract vet testing option $20 million player option next year if he pitches 16 Innings from now until the end of the season he will have accumulated 300 total innings in his first two seasons in Texas which would trigger that vesting player option for $20 million should he decide to take it that question's up in the air at this point but can the Rangers afford that well at first I said yes absolutely then I went and looked at spot track for the Rangers what they have on the table on the books for next season and I thought oh most definitely they can afford it because you know looking at what they've got on the books according to spot track the Rangers have $90 million in room for next season before they hit the luxury tax which they would not like to do they would not like to be multi-time payers of the luxury tax cuz every dollar over that threshold once you have gone into it multiple times becomes taxed at a pretty high rate so I don't like it I don't support it it's not my money so I don't really care how much is spent but I understand Ray Davis's prerogative but there is still plenty of room to be maintained before the Rangers get to that luxury tax threshold and Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote about this and if the Rangers could afford to keep evaldi Evo obviously didn't want to talk about it didn't want to take away from the team in the season but one of the numbers that he brought up of what the Rangers will be paying in their payroll next year he uses baseball perspectus as estimate of $249 million payroll now $249 million is a lot it is over what the tax threshold is but it was very different from what spot trk had listed so I went and looked at spot TR I went and crunched the numbers and as of right now spot TR has the Rangers at $ 7.75 million in payroll next season on the books that is 93 million in cap Spa tax space as they say I'm not so sure about the tax space being $93 million but went and looked exactly who they have on the books nine players so far Jacob De gram $40 million yep that's accurate Seager $32.5 million yep Simeon $26 million sure Nate e ofal these $ million option that's in question at this point then Mali at 16 and a half John Gray Adas Garcia and then they had the options for David Robertson and Andrew Chaffin Robertson's Mutual option is for $7 million that next year I don't think that gets exercised because I'm pretty sure he's going to test the free agent market and make more than that and Chaffin well I I don't think the Rangers are going to exercise that club option for $6.5 million doll next year because he has not been all that great so but all those numbers add up around $70 million so I went and take out those two options that's $13 million off the table so right now we are at $17.75 million to take all of that off and we are at $67 million and according to baseball P or according to spot tracks numbers about $106 million in tax base so what's making the difference in that $80 million or so yeah around $80 million in difference well they don't have any of the arbitration guys or the pre-arbitration guys or a couple of different bonuses so I went and I did the math myself I went up and looked how much about we can expect for the Rangers to pay in arbitration they've got six guys under arbitration next year Nathaniel low is going to be in year three of arbitration he's making $7.5 million this year so for for first basement in year three of arbitration he's probably going to make around1 to 12 million Jonah Heim ballpark at around $4 to5 million maybe even less than that he's making 3 million this year and he's had an awful year so maybe 5 million is a bit too high leot somewhere between four and5 million Dunning four and five million Josh Smith is really interesting not sure I kind of ballparked that around two to three million and then spores also round $3 million so ballpack all that to say those six guys will cost anywhere between 26 and $33 million all right now we're getting closer to what baseball perspectives uh calculated then you've got eight guys pre-arbitration this is the guys who have not yet hit three years of service time they are just as me just projecting the Rangers could have more or fewer of these guys depending on you know how much time they play in the big leagues but I'd say about eight guys Cody Bradford Jake ladz Jack lighter Kim rocker white Langford Evan Carter Josh Young and Ezekiel Duran that's around 750k for each of those guys so that's $6 million okay now we're getting closer then there's $18 million in benefits and pre-arbitration bonus pool okay now we are sitting at around 2117 million to 224 million so still about 20 million off of where baseball prospectus ballparked it of around 200 49 million we're still quite some ways and that is including Nate evol's $20 million player option should he choose to take it if not then we are $60 million $40 million away no yeah no we are uh $60 million away from from where all that was expected to be okay so we're sitting pretty we've got around five roster spots to to add up after this say you all the client's option okay that's $20 million off say the Rangers sign him back in free agency he's ballparked around $25 million per year I know this is a lot of math and we're getting there to the point but say that's the case all right you add $5 million for that add 12 half million doll for Yates and Robertson each um 12 and a half for Yates 11 for Robertson that's still three spots on your roster right now we're at 235 million still plenty of room to play for three spots to play with all right one and a half million for a backup catcher and Travis Janowski back that's 3 million so still now we're closer to this but the Rangers still have one roster spot say throw in a prear guy there all right we're still $1 million shy of that 249 million still shy of the tax still have some room to play with so where could the Rangers save some money could they save should they save some money or are these ballar figures just completely off plus we're going to talk about Cory Seager and where he stands among the greatest Short Stops ever after his 200th career home run right after this R from our sponsors this show is brought to you by liquid IV when you're taking in America's pastime don't forget to hydrate with liquid IV's popsicle firecracker flavor a Sure Fire summer hit get hydrated with electrolytes essential vitamins and clinically tested nutrients from the number one powdered hydration brand in in America because baseball and summer go together like liquid IV and indulgent hydration blast off with the iconic flavor of popsicle firecracker a festive blend of citrus fueled lemon lime tart cherry and raspberry flavors find all your favorites on the website from asai Berry to lemon lime and pina colada as well tear more tear pour and live more cuz one stick plus 16 ounces of water hydrates better than just water alone there's three times the electrolytes of the leading Sports dram at essential vitamins and nutrients as well so no more thirsty Summers when you indulge in hydration with liquid IV get 20% off your first order of liquid IV when you go to liquid iv.com and use code MLB at checkout that's 20% off your first order when you shop better hydration today using promo code MLB liquid i.com now I just threw probably too many numbers at you right there to get to the point of what I was trying to say can the Rangers afford Nate EO Baldi well with that roster as constructed the only free agents the Rangers would sign are well e of Aldi back on an average deal for what spot TR says his value should be Yates and Robertson back on a little expensive for free agent relievers um but still if they perform what they like what they did this year absolutely worth the money then just end of the bench roll guys signed and then say that one roster spot we had left say you throw in a pre-arb guy say Jonathan or Nellis or or what have you somebody takes at that final roster spot you're still sitting pretty around $5 million shy of the competitive balance tax that's at $241 million that year I have you at $238 million so around $3 million to play with assuming my math is you know taking into account some margin for error so that's still below the tax threshold and so this question of can the Rangers it boils down to this can the Rangers afford to bring back Nathan evaldi absolutely they can the ideal situation is that he throws at least 16 Innings from now until the end of the year he decides free agency is kind of a nightmare I like being in Texas I feel like this year was an outlier he obviously wants to compete he wants to win because he is at his best on the biggest stage and he says okay I'll take that $1 million that $20 million option and bypass the free agency thing on the whole that would probably save the Rangers about $5 million for his salary next year they can still go out and afford to go get back Robertson and Yates still have money to play with and even if they don't want to bring back Robertson and Yates there's some interesting guys the Rangers could backfill that with I think in free agency your biggest priority is probably being bringing back back Gates and Robertson they can live probably not well without Nathan e evaldi but still I think bringing those three back if you do nothing else in free agency and just fill all those other spots with uh prear guys you're still probably 105 million shy of the luxury tax you're not worried about that with whatever numbers baseball perspectives I don't know how they got to $249 million without signing in free agency maybe they even did include some free agent signings that's how they got the 249 million but still if the Rangers want to go a similar route in free agency this year as they did last year they've got some internal options in the rotation they would be pretty shy on depth and banking on John Gray and Tyler Mali and Jacob deg Grom and Kamar rocker and all of them to be healthy and good and that's a risky gamble if you were going into 20 25 trying to compete which this team absolutely should be because if you got a Cory Seager on your roster you have got to be competing cuz Cory Seager is without a doubt in my mind one of the best short styles of all time and that 200th home run that he hit in his career just kind of solidifies himself he's finally getting those counting stat numbers with the Rangers because he's been healthy because he's been so good that kind of puts it in perspective of oh this guy is one of the best short stop STS of all time now it was kind of funny how it was there was so many qualifiers put on it of the first left-handed hitting primary Short Stop to hit 200 home runs with the majority of his games being at shortstop and actually just left-handed and not switch handed hitting I was like who are they trying to leave out there so I went and looked up and right now in terms of just as a short stop we're taking out home runs that anybody is hit at any other position whether they were primary short stop or whatever just the home runs they've hit as a short stop Cory Seager has hit the 10th most homers as a short stop in the regular season in Major League Baseball history the guys ahead of him Cal Ripken Alex Rodriguez Miguel tahada Ernie Banks Jeter Francisco Lindor Jimmy Rollins Troy tski bar Barry Lin and Corey Seager now seager's hit 200 home runs in his career 199 of them have been as a shortstop one of them was the third baseman and eight of them been as a DH but 19 191 of 200 is pretty impressive numbers I'm sure he will get up there to he keeps up this pace I mean it's a little bit it might be a little bit of a reach for him to expect to pass Cal Ripken junor because Cal ripken's at 345 homers as a short stop right now Seager is at 191 he's got seven more years under his contract and he's been averaging he's probably going to average at least 33 homers per year as a ranger if Texas can keep him healthy then I mean who knows maybe 300 350 career homers is is on the table for Seager if he keeps up this pace say seven more years at about 30 home runs pop that's 400 career home runs now I don't know if he's going to keep that up for the rest of his tenure in Texas but I mean who knows at this point the Rangers have kept him healthy he has been hitting like crazy with the Rangers how long he stays as a short stop um well I think he's got at least two maybe three more seasons we we'll see what the Rangers are at with him defensively but this is an all-time great short stop this is one of the best Short Stops ever I mean you look at the guys ahead of him and you think about what Cy Seager does best which is be dominant in the postseason one of only three guys to win multiple World Series MVPs you look at everybody ahead of him on this list everybody all nine of these guys they have combined for One World Series MVP that is Derek Jeter back in the year 2000 year three of the three and four that the Yankees won the only one of his career and seager's got double the amount of World Series MVPs as Jeter and he's only one home run shy of tying Jeter for the most home for most home runs by a short stop in the playoffs and Jeter play played about I think about a 100 games more than him in the postseason I mean I know the season has been frustrating and a Lost season and we're not going to get to see Cory Seager go nuclear in the playoffs this year but just seeing him do this consistently don't just because he's a baseball robot don't let that make you forget how special this is how incredible this is that this guy is going to be in Texas for 10 seasons what he had three of them and he has been an Allstar in all three of them he has been a World Series MVP in one of them he has been a Silver Slugger he had not for sh Otani been doing sh Otani things last year he would have won his first regular season MVP but alas that's not how it works I think he'll get a regular season MVP at some point in his career it's going to be some heavy competition he's still at this point as of right now tied for the is tied for the most home runs in a single season as a left-handed hitting Short Stop gunar Henderson is three ahead of him right now has tied his career record at 33 Henderson is really slowed off seager's at 30 on the year he could pass he could pass the young shortstop in Baltimore for keeping his record extending it uh which I think would be very very fun to see oh gunar Hendon was on Pace for like 50 home runs to start this year well he's slowing down he might only hit 40 and Seager well with the pace that he's on in the month of August he might end up hitting 40 as well cuz he has just been on legendary Pace as of right now so if you're looking for reasons to still watch this team down the stretch don't forget to enjoy Cory seager's greatness but a couple of players you might not be seeing from now until the end of the season maybe you'll see him them on Friday or maybe a little bit on Saturday is Two Guys the Rangers placed on waivers and Robbie grman and Travis Janowski but why did they do that was it just cheapness or was it something else entirely talk about that right after this R from our sponsors this show is brought to you by prize piix prize piix is America's number one daily fantasy sports app with over 5 million active members priz piix is the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports because unlike other apps on priz piix it is just you against those numbers all you do is pick more or less on two to six players tab projections and watch the winnings roll in get in on the daily action with your friends become part of the prize picks Community today you can now win up to 100 times your money on prize picks with as little as four correct picks you can turn $10 into 1,000 think Tyreek Hill will get more than 90.5 yards in week one Aaron Jones run for more than 66 and a half yards cook up some hot takes with your friends and win real money this football season when you and your crew run the your game on prize pick so download the prize pick apps today and use code locked on MLB and get $50 instantly when you play $5 that's code locked on MLB on price picks to get $50 instantly when you play $5 you don't even need to win to receive your $50 bonus because it is guaranteed prize picks run your game now yesterday afternoon during the Rangers game while I was literally looking at Travis Janowski on the field ESPN's Kylie McDaniel broke the news that the Rangers had placed both Travis J Kowski and Robbie Grossman on waivers now I was a little confused watching the Rangers play Travis Janowski while apparently he was on waivers because I was thinking that was the same thing as just cutting a player but no that's not the case my initial thought was okay ray Davis this is what the Angels did last year on mass of just cutting so many different guys just to get under that luxury attacks threshold the angels went for it at the trade deadline but with shotani on the sidelines at least as a pitcher from about mid August on and them going on an absolutely terrible skid from being right in it at the trade deadline to very much not in it by the end of August Ry Mareno said yep I'm going to cut so many of these players loose and it was just a cost-saving move to try and get under the luxury tax threshold you thought okay that that's an embarrassing look for the Angels don't be like them next year well that was my first thought as to why this is happening but that's not really the case it's not saving the reindeers all that much money it would save around 200k for each of those players so not even half a million dollars for the both of them combined so why would the Rangers do this everyone loves Travis Janowski he's a clubhouse Legend same with Robbie Gman for all I complaining about him that has not been warranted this season Jen Kowski he's had two absolutely incredible moments this year not much else beside but still an amazing Clubhouse guy why are the Rangers cutting these guys well they're not outright cutting these guys they're more giving them a chance to be on someone else's team more specifically a playoff team because if these guys go through waivers and they aren't claimed by a playoff team then they will be back on the Rangers it can still play with the Rangers from now until that deadline to claim them which is 1159 p.m. central Time maybe it's 10:59 p.m. central Time yes it is 10:59 p.m. central Time on Saturday if someone claims them a playoff team most likely I don't think some team out of the playoffs is going to put in a claim on them then these guys can go on a playoff run the Rangers can open up a roster spot and a 40 man roster spot to clear the way for some young guys in September to come up without having to have the awkward conversation of okay well we love you vets but you are not playing anymore or just straight up outright cutting them which might end up being the case because the Rangers are going to need to clear some 40-man roster spots in a minute there are some obvious candidates of guys who could be just straight up cut loose but if you can cut loose a couple of guys and give them better opportunities to go somewhere and win and do nice things then that would be the nicest and the easiest way to clear up a couple of 40-man roster spots in Robbie Grossman and Jen Kowski because the Rangers are going to need one for sure when deg Grom comes back he's pitching again on Sunday so we will see if he gets up after that that is the plan so sometime during this home stand after his Rehab start in round rck on Sunday we will see when when Jak gr will be making his debut since he's on the 60-day iil it will necess necessitate a 40-man roster spot opening if both those guys clear waivers that's one spot then you have some room to play with for getting Jack lighter back up here I think he is still I don't think that would NE necessitate a 40-man roster spot but if the Rangers want somebody else who's not right now on their 40-man roster to come up and Pitch from now until the end of the year that could be one way to do it another way to do it could be just shutting down Max Scherzer for the year I know he would absolutely hate that but that is looking more and more likely as we are now a week after he was supposed to have his first rehab assignment that we have heard nothing since about how ready he is to start a rehab and eventually come back um that is another way to do it there are also some other kind of obvious candidates that I don't think the Rangers would love to do but I'm surprised they haven't done at this point Sam Huff who has been having a mediocre season in Triple A and after I believe four option years um is just kind of settled as the Rangers I think see him as a quad a guy a guy who's not really a major league regular there's not really going to be a spot for him next year I think he is absolutely going to get left off of the Rangers 40-man roster or taken off the 40-man roster this winter so doing it now just gets a little bit of extra time there there are some guys who could end up getting spots and making a little bit of their opportunity from now until the end of the season um maybe seeing Amano teoto up here I think that would be interesting he's not right now on the 40-man roster if rocker gets a start or two from now in the major leagues um then that would necessitate a 40-man roster spot so there there are some ways for the Rangers to get these guys up but those two would be the easiest EST way for the Rangers to get those roster spots and also to get some more playing time for guys like Zeke Duran guys like if they call back up Justin fosu which I think they should um but getting played appearances for the young guys and not letting Bruce Boi just keep playing those older guys who God bless them Clubhouse loves them but when you are in a Lost season with a month left you got to see what you got in those young guys and this is a way to do it speaking of Kamar rocker though he is finally cracked back into MLB pipeline's top 100 overall prospects he had been on the list previously for about 45 minutes last year yeah you're heard me right 45 minutes before he underwent Tommy John surgery it was uh very quick that he was taken right off of that list and is taken till now for him to crack back onto that list still listed as the Rangers number two Prospect I think that is uh entirely too low at this point I know it's just been starch that he's had between able a and AAA but they have been absolutely Sensational the fact that they have I believe 14 22 excuse me 22 different pitchers ahead of him on the top 100 is crazy to me his fast ball sits 98 it sits 98 not averaging not topping out but it is sitting there at 98 and for starting pitchers the guys who average 98 mph in the big leagues on their F their four seam fast ball as a starting pitcher there are two of them Paulk Jose Sorano that's it that's the end of the list I know the movement profile on it isn't great but the curveball is one of the best pitches in minor league baseball right now and I don't care what the shape of that fast ball is he's also got the Sinker that's averaging I believe 975 milph in that first start for me in triple in ablea it looked like it was also averaging around 98 so maybe one start outlier but guys who do that do not come around all that often the fact that minor league Major League Baseball or MLB pipeline excuse me specifically thinks that there are 22 better pitching prospects in the world in major league baseball right now than Kumar rocker is kind of insane to me I know it's a small sample size but um we're going to look back at those rankings as maybe as soon as like May of next year and think huh he probably should have been a little bit higher but that's going to do it for this week's shows shout out to Alejandra Rosario I didn't have time to talk about him or bla Crim who have both been on absolute heaters as of late I'll maybe talk more about that on Monday show after this weekend Series against the A's hopefully we will be looking forward to some more good things some more fireworks from Cory Seager and some more great starts from Nate evaldi from now until the end of the year but that's going to do it for this week's shows thank you all so much for listening and subscribing and until next time don't forget to enjoy World Series champion Texas Rangers baseball