a lot of folks just want to hear about the data they just want an update they want to know how is this County doing how is the zip code that I'm in and a lot of times I will start the narrative for the area that I'm talking about with some macroeconomic data or some updates on what's going on in the greater economy because those things affect where you live and I got to tell you folks there's some interesting things breaking out and today we're going to focus on an area north of the Orlando metro some of the areas on the south side of the county of valua which is what we're talking about today are are actually very much a part of the Orlando metro area specifically when you're talking about Deltona and Dand and many of you orlanders you would say you know what we don't claim you valua County people you are not a part of the greater for County area which makes up Orlando we not count you as us but I have to tell you through the exploding home prices over the past 5 years many people who work in Longwood North Orlando Lake Mary Heathrow many of those locations becoming far too expensive pushed people to then take the 20-minute drive just north to where they find themselves in South Valia in Valia County my friends I get more requests for updates as of late people just beating down my door in any way possible saying Jared you got to tell us what's going on so back to the point I'm making as I open this video what is leading headlines today well there's a lot of corporations that are struggling and just the past week Disney CFO just came out and said surprise we're starting to see the park attendant through summer is starting to look bad we're going to have some weak numbers in the third quarter fast forward to last week then all of a sudden we saw airbnbs stock absolutely crumble might I add completely unconnected to the Disney point I'm making but some ways they are connected now Airbnb is having a problem because they're showing that there are signs of weakness and their earnings they're saying that people just can't afford the luxury of renting our places and that demand for Airbnb all across the US is cratering and so their stock plummeted now if we're talking about Valia County Jared why should I care because you have to understand Florida is leading the nation in negative real estate data what I'm saying is our inventory is surging faster than anywhere else buyers are cancelling in Florida at a higher number once they go under contract which is not good for home sales price Cuts in the percentage of which sellers have to reduce their price in order to attract the buyer is starting to hit very big numbers anywhere look throughout the State of Florida all of which indicating that we ourselves are seeing a massive transition and a shift to a more buyer controlled Market long gone of the days where sellers could demand a buyer wave their appraisals and all kinds of things buyers now are a bit more concerned about the high cost that they will face when they purchase now as we speak to Daytona you have to understand that all of these costs hit very close to home in this particular Market you'd say Jared what do you mean there is no doubt that as buyers are interviewed what they consider to be the hidden cost of home ownership absolutely becomes very visible in this particular Market it's no surprise that insurance is absolutely expensive it's further no surprise that if you own a home closer to the east coast you might just experience higher coverage cost for your property not to mention the condo crisis which is unfolding in Florida where at the heart you have HOA assessments skyrocketing squeezing existing owners many of these people that own these properties in Daytona are snowbirds they live somewhere else so they don't have the home stead protection that keeps their property tax from absolute skyrocketing which is exactly the case over the past 5 years as property appraisers keep pushing those numbers to help them in turn pay for the high cost of schooling children and things of that nature throughout vucha County not to mention the fact that these older buildings in Daytona the older condos specifically ones that are over three stories high now are falling under the new laws that were changed because we had that building collapse in Miami which is now on its own unfolding to a huge dilemma for home owners and that alone is pushing massive amounts of inventory of those older buildings onto the market and many buyers are stepping back and they're not making a move on them leaving them largely unsold and again all of these features are greater help and pushing click Bai stories all across the internet about how Florida's Market's taking a dive while it is true the market is transitioning you have to understand that each of these areas are suffering in their own unique ways and you might find an area that's completely doing the opposite and it's with that goal that if you own a home here now or you're considering purchasing one in the future this channel exists and I'm going to do just what I've always done particularly for Valia County which is a deep dive so that you fully understand how the marketplace here looks at this moment in time and if you appreciate the hard work and effort I've gone to to bring you this update do me a favor real quick drop down below smash the thumbs up it helped the video and I thank you for doing it change is coming my fellow Americans you will own nothing and you will be happy all right as I often like to do I like to go ahead and give you an index something to compare vucha County 2 what better place than just to compare vucha County with the entire state so is vucha County beating the narrative about Florida or is it doing worse you'll be the judge here we go so here we are in Florida we've got closed sales now this is June this is the most recent dated everybody's going to ask in the comments Jared where are you pulling this data from this is a password protected back-end access to the Florida Association realtor database I'm pulling you all the MLS data for the marketplace as we look at this so we at the top of the list June 2024 versus June 2023 we are down in sales Nega 133% we are down in cash sales which is contributing to why this number is off if buyers which are unaffected by the interest rate themselves are backing away from the market in a very large number which is almost one in five cash buyers have said I'm not here for this Market this year that's going to cause a problem in sales in Florida and any even worse problem look at this overall volume if you just add up all the dollars that are sold in real estate it is down nearly 10% against last year Jared why does it matter because 2023 was an abysmally slow year and now we're actually trending beneath that now some key things to look at for Florida take a look at this and by the way in case this doesn't match any other data you're looking at you have to understand this is single family condos and Tow houses this is the whole Gambit look at the bottom we're at 80% higher months of Supply months of inventory if you stop listing all homes in Florida how long would it take you to sell everything off about 5.4 months last year this time you would have accomplished the same thing in just three months now why is that matter well across the country the entire Us is around three and a half months remember I like to have an index if you compare Florida as a state to the rest of the country we are way under what the rest of the country is why because we have more unsold homes more people are listing them they're going unsold less closings are taking place you just saw our closings are down by like 133% 14% so as a result that number of unsold homes Stacks even higher and here you have a much bigger leap in months of Supply by the way the higher months of Supply gets you don't need a huge active inventory Supply okay you can look at active inventory and like well you know that's definitely a lot of homes for sale that's unsold that's as much as we had in 2019 if this number gets out of hand it can only be as many homes as you had in 2018 if people stop buying them the price Cuts will Mount very fast and sellers that have to sell will set new lows which then in turn affects the value of all the homes around it becomes where new appraisals are set and here you go look at this active inventory last year folks okay remember I just told you we're selling less dollar volume than a year ago but look at this a year ago there were 96,000 units on the market this year there's 165,000 unsold units why pendings are down pendings are down that's a leading indicator that in the future sales will still be down and new listings are up so for whatever reason even with a lot of homes already still in the market more people are listing than a year ago now the first thing we're going to look at is called the Daytona Beach MSA now this really is all of uchia County I like to use the Daytona Beach MSA because it's the Metropolitan statistical area for Daytona covers valua it's very easy to analyze the data from this particular standpoint again we're looking at all property types just the same remember comparing with Florida Florida was just inside a 14% year-over-year Daytona has a bigger Gap selling less homes June to June against last year now they're not struggling to find so many cash buyers they're only down 10% look at Dollar volume remember the State of Florida was down about 9.5% in dollar volume the Daytona Beach MSA is down nearly 13% year-over-year now look all the way at the bottom okay you will see that hey Jared look at that you remember the State of Florida it was like 5.3 months of Supply against last year which was like 3 months of Supply that's you know what's going on in in Daytona Beach MSA look at this it's 5.2 so it's a little bit ahead but remember last year it was already softening so Daytona Beach started to slow down at a greater degree than the rest of the State of Florida so this year we're only showing about 60% ahead look at active inventory active inventory is 51% over last year pendings are down nearly 14% which isn't great but also look at the new listing flow seems to be abating a bit so they're actually listing less homes than a year ago in June now by the way I didn't mention it earlier but median sale price is up 3.2% for the State of Florida you'll notice that most of the United States is reporting 4.5 to 6% range depending on which data you look at for the rest of the country so it looks like looks like median sale price is up a bit against last year which is good so far all right the next thing I want to show you is called a home forecast tool now you'll notice that everything on this graph is blue and that's not because everybody in these areas are voting Democrat it's because the app is predicting prices to fall in all of these areas it's cooling it's a buyer Market that's what the trend is if I pull back on Florida I think there might be one or two counties that are even balanced called neutral or towards the sellers Market you say well Jared how come Orlando is like a lighter shade of blue is that because there's some Republicans in there no that means they're just a little bit more towards the neutral territory than the rest of these surrounding counties but let's take a look if you look at this you'll say Jared I see it says that this particular Marketplace is a 36 now how in the world do they get a 36 and and I see the graph it looks like in 2022 and 23 they were up here and upper end is a sellers Market okay this is the midpoint of the graph and what creates a sellers Market according to this data you can see it on the on the left it tracks how much property appreciation you have is prices strong or falling it tracks how long it takes to sell which is days on Market it tracks how much inventory is exploding in a given area versus its history it's tracking price reductions obviously if you have a marketplace where sellers are having to cut more on the price then obviously that's showing that buyers are having strength in a given Marketplace and lastly it factors in mortgage rates so mortgage rates are going to affect certain markets more because certain buyers at a higher degree will have to finance in given areas if you have hom in a given area that are incredibly overvalued against what the current base of population can actually afford then that creates a dynamic where the mortgage rates heavily works against affordability creates it more of a buyers Market because Chance of those homes increasing in value when it lacks affordability is not a very likely outcome so look at what you could see here you can see that up here this Marketplace peaked in March 2020 the most recent Peak now it obviously peaked back here in July of 2021 but ever since early 2022 it's been going straight down month after month till at some point early January of last year this went into the neutral Market territory and then over the past 6 to8 months it continued to fall steadily into the grasp of what we considered a buyer controlled market now you say Jared is this the way it is all through the metro area or some of the marketplaces stronger than others that's a great question in a second I'm going to pull up a zip code view so you can see exactly what's happening in this area so here you go you say Jared I see some tan spots and some clear spots and some red spots these are the last bastions of a more neutral market so you're like Jared what are those zip codes well here they are but I got news for you and those of you that live here already know what I'm about to say no one lives in those areas so look at the more dense areas so if you go to the more dense areas of Daytona Beach look at these These are extraordinarly buyer control markets again I don't know these zip codes well okay don't actually I I shouldn't say well well I don't know them at all but look at this this is 32129 this is some of the lowest buyer controlled numbers meaning these are more likely to see price down than anywhere you will see in Florida the upper 20s like 24 25 26 27 these markets by the way are all showing in that range so these are 27 3211 9's 29 30 look at the coast areas so 3 so 32118 I believe again and then even right up north of that uh those areas are shifting now Palm Coast some parts are on their way they're not shifting as extremely as fast as these particular markets but they are and I will tell you that a lot of these areas that are lighter you'd say Jared why is Deltona lighter okay I see it's a buyer Market it's you know it's a 38 it's a 39 at 37 why are they lighter well that's because they're they're taking longer to adjust because they're more affordable if you look at the income levels for these areas and you look who's moving there versus the cost of housing these represent a little bit lower value than all the other areas why because people moving into these areas many of them are commuting to Orlando if they're not retired already they made the option to buy here because to then the dollar goes further now some of these areas it is incredibly expensive versus running income okay particularly the coastline so like the closer you get to the coast when income and value becomes an obstacle who's buying it and that's what's happening so now you have more Supply hitting you have less people able to purchase it and it's changing things for the marketplace now let's take a look at home values for these areas Jared how is medium price doing I own in the area um let me pull back so I know you're already upset with me for for messing with the map if you see these areas right here you see Flagler Beach you see the Palm Coast they're warm because they're still peing on price okay so this area right here which I don't even know if anybody lives in 32124 still peing on price but some of these are starting to flatten out so this area of the coast is starting to flatten out if you look at it you say what is it doing you're going to see it in fact it's tipping you know so this particular end of the market is actually going into decline all of these are okay you can see them they're hitting a wall and they're starting to either go sideways or flatten this is 32114 this is like an 8-year running graph you can see if I narrow this down for like a 3 foure run look what's happened the last couple months it peaked and now it's just three months of running declines I mean just people are listing them cheaper than last year and they're selling them for even less all this is is a precipitation of people in these particular areas call a broker to put their house in the Market they sit down with the broker the broker says this is the reality of this area the seller says well I see that there's a lot of my neighbors for sale and they dro the price a little bit lower than they were last year and then all of a sudden by the time they negotiate a few more points off of that precipitates price declines you'd say Jared well what's the future look like well ultimately if months of Supply keeps climbing and inventory keeps climbing in these areas then you are going to see them continue on that path let's take a look at Deltona okay so at the top of the Deltona graph look at what's happening okay you'd say well Jared I see that it looks like it's just flattening out okay see that it's almost like it went up up up and it's flattened out this is not normal for moving season though okay so in moving season you're supposed to gain energy and this is a seasonal Peak okay it's like top of a bell every year that's the way usually it looks in the summer summer months in normal Market Cycles every year you look at the amount of activity homes are being sold they're trading at that we just obviously had NE news saying that when we see the July pricing data which I haven't seen a lot of it yet because it's been released to us it's not released in this particular system I'm using when we see that data catch up you're actually going to see negative numbers through the entire index of the United States According to realor.com which is fascinating it's the first time it's ever been recorded for July which is a moving season month okay that's a peak trading season for Real Estate you're not supposed to see this kind of stuff at this time of year you say well Jared what is it mean it means that in the next 6 months this is going to lose ground okay so I expect in a lot of these markets okay I'm just going to tell you straight um this these markets you see that already blue like Orange City Deltona Dand um I think this is uh this might be Delan 327 32724 yeah Dand split down the middle I see the line right here you can see the West Side cooling a little bit faster than this east side but the point I'm making is these neutral that you see where it's clear these are going to be lightly blue you're going to start to see price suffering in those areas first flattening out if anything okay so people in those areas are probably going to start to see a little bit more inventory sell unsold they're going to see price competition and they'll be lucky to get out really kind of compatible to what a neighbor just sold for going into the fall in these clear or orangish areas what will happen with these if inventory keeps climing and it's unsold these are going to pitch even lower so You' say Jared what is the opportunity here for a buyer if you're a buyer these areas are going to get flatter okay so a lot of these areas got understand this too and these lighter areas right here there's already Pockets inside of these zip codes where people are selling under prior sale okay um but but if you average them out there's also some neighborhood selling at and slightly above cuz these are literally all these areas right here are flat to last year they're may be up 1 or 2% but these are losing value these are down 1 or 2% which means some in these are selling well below last year okay so some of these when you have an entire index if you average all the homes that sold some of the more po there's will be some popular homes in here that actually will index even those blue areas a little over last year they are going to do okay but there's going to be a lot that are actually negotiating four five six they're they're trading away a lot more to sell against what the price was a year ago so there significant change in the equity position in some of these homes specifically in those Bluer areas and as we go into the fall the light blue is going to get to the dark blue they're going to start to shift a little darker okay again assuming natural market trends you tune in here so you actually understand what is happening in your Market you can see down here in the South this uh price is still raging it looks like uh still climbing probably off the charts I don't oh no it's not look at that it's showing me red but then look what's happening it's actually in a three-month decline I think the reason why it's calling it Red is because it's a little above last year so last year it's over here but the problem is look at the trend so even at 32169 the trend is negative it's falling let's take a look at all these we just take a look at a few on the coast look at it flattening down it's that's actually going and dropping a bit and we're going into the fall see that this most recent month which I'm looking at June and 32 127 posted beneath prior month in summer let's take a look at this this is prime Daytona Beach no look at this why is that even clear it's like clear it should be blue I don't understand why why it's posting a neg it's like what it's 339 let's look at year-over Year yes it's negative let all right let me take a look let me show you something else okay which I don't necessarily know if it's too helpful but this is year over year okay okay so look look at this year-over-year in Flagler is under the zero line okay see it so for the last four or five months Flagler is negative to last year same here 32164 negative to last year 32136 just bounced back so it's been a few months negative but 32136 is is a month away from dropping right back under the line again so look at this look at all the South markets for the last five or six months it's been pushing decent numbers against prior year it looks like April May and June is writing a different story down here at the very end of that curve and again just to repeat this is value growth against a year ago okay so look at this you can see what it's doing now okay it's not doing so hot versus last year why is that happening the entire Narrative of everything we're seeing price-wise okay the story here is it's hanging against a year ago for the most part but you'll find it nearly impossible to find any zip code in here that isn't already on a downward trajectory it's not already tipping two 3 months straight again we're going into the fall okay so we're going into fall season we're have to see how that pans out take a look at this this is value income ratio okay so this is taking how much the person's salary is versus the home value for the area so for instance right here it's showing me Delona median household income in Deltona is $71,000 the actual home value there is pushing 4.4 okay now you say Jared why is that cold because 4.4 is on the Lower Side once these Market starts to get at 4.9 or five a factor of five meaning um I make 70 grand but my house cost me 350,000 that's my typical price for my area and anything at five and up even 48 49 you start to see those Market places slowing down okay so what we are now seeing and this is all across the country is that any of the areas that are still below 4.6 4.7 4.8 like Deltona like Dand those particular areas are mainly the most attractive because affordability is the number one problem for home buyers okay so what happens this was this happened I'm not saying this is the great financial collapse all over again this is not necessarily a two 2008 parallel but in 2008 particularly in ' 06 and 7 when the gas started to run out of the car before unemployment went nuts and really shot up and shut everything down before all that this stuff happened everybody flocked to areas that were not number one on their list they were really you know Delan Deltona no offense to anybody that lives in this area you know Del Deltona is not the number one spot it's just I could say the same thing when I look at a map map of of the Orlando metro and I see CMI and St Cloud becoming hyper populous at this last stretch of of a market cycle because people can only afford to be there okay that's the only choice and if they don't if they don't move there what happens they can qualify for Orlando or they can qualify for a more populous area over here on the coast but at Orman Beach for instance that house is 400t less okay they go okay I can live in Deltona and get 2,000 F feet or I can go to Orman Beach and get, 1500 sare F feet you see what I'm saying or they can buy an old house in Oran Beach or they get a brand new one for the same price in Deltona okay that's the decision that's being made these though what's happening is this number is getting exhausted okay the value income ratios can only do so much in the face of 7% interest rates and all of a sudden it's like enough's enough and the the ratio gets out of whack and so like when you see this area up here like um this is just south of Flagler I think this is yeah this is Flagler Beach actually so Flagler Beach running 7.3 okay yes there's probably a mega retiree Nation here but there's also a lot of locals are like forget you I cannot afford it they're only making 68 some thousand and the going price there is like over five okay that's a problem same thing here same thing here these coastal regions they're all and again we're talking Florida here the only thing we're factoring is income versus home price we know that's in Florida that's not the end of the story that's the start of the story all of these areas are then impacted by how high the insurance cost how high the HOAs are how high your taxes will be all those things play themselves out let's get into the inventory and let me show you where the price cuts are and we'll end this video all right so take a look at this let's start with Flagler um so look at this the reason why this graph is an eight-year run is important is because all of this fell off when all the easy money low interest rates came so we dropped way down here but look you see the history of this particular Market the zip code for SS ran up here around 650 homes and now we are in a pattern of much lower buyer interest right now and we're getting right in the range of what we used to have so this is where the marketplace gets interesting is when you start getting up to the history of its running averages okay so let's look at Flagler 32136 boom so it Rose above it's 8ye this dotted line by the way is 8year average of Ts for sale you can see it Rose just above that let's look at the coastal areas of Daytona Beach 32176 boom off the charts um I expect this because I think a lot of this is condo chaos look how high this is above history and again folks I already looked before I got on here you say well Jared did we build a bunch of condos and town H home isn't there just way more units on this side of the graph in the 2024 than there was four years ago no there's not it doesn't all the growth in this area is reasonable like it didn't go crazy over here they didn't add thousands more housing units this is just unsold homes look at that folks way way over the eight-year average okay let's keep moving south 32127 32127 again boom some of this I think could be related to that condo issue that's going on we have older buildings some of them getting hit with new assessments some of them with mystery bills they have no idea how much it will cost to bring some of those buildings into compliance with state law and like buyers are like nope not going to do it all right let's look in Inland on Daytona Beach [Music] 32174 coming up coming up coming up this is a I would believe a reasonable residential area and again this is what gets iffy people are like ah big deal jar look look at it was before 2019 2018 was around 400 units it's right there now yes but there's way less buyer applications there's like 40 50% less buyers applying to buy this stuff than back then so that much inventory against fading buyers is a problem okay and I'm not saying at list I'm not predicting problems and thanks I know my thumbnail looks crazy but if I put rainbows and unicorns people don't watch it and you know it's good so might as well make a scary thumbnail look at this look how high 8ye average is running 138 it's above that and the real tricky part too look at look at its direction it's like straight up I mean really all the way back till September of last year it's just straight this is going unabated north okay um all right let's look in um Dand this Dand West this seems to be the hotter part of the market I expect less inventory here remember we had a west side of D land some somehow it's like is it Beverly Hills and the side to land let me know in the comments whoa yeah that seems high yeah that's uh that's a record high for eight years so be interesting to see if those property values hold West to land um all right let's take a look at east east side is not against history it's a little lower maybe I had it backwards maybe it's the east side that was more stable because this is above an eight-year average but it's not record high I feel like I I'm accurate though I feel like it was I feel like it was the um East Side over here that was Stronger price-wise but they're all they're all sloping down so we we'll see how this shakes out in the fall um you can see it looks like it's been running for about 8 months north um we're at 32725 and this is again above an 8year average it looks like it spiked once here but most of the time it's it's right around 170 units and right here it's at 180 units so it's it's a little up there that was uh just outside of Del Delon I think all right you can see you can see Orange City look like it's responding look like it's coming down they had some good sell off in June that's good um yeah so that's that um let's see what else all right let's take a look at Price Cuts price Cuts price Cuts let's start up here in Flagler 32.4% that's a lot of price Cuts one out of three homes uh price cutting next Market down 28% inside you have 34% out here 32 174 nearly 40% price Cuts in Orman this is interesting let's take a look at these coastal areas High 30% 32176 then South 32118 is running 19.9% so obviously you can see the blue is less price Cuts where is the blue well I don't understand how this number is this low I would imagine that these are holdouts that people here are just like screw it I'm not reducing and it's going to sit there but look at Inland 32114 35% price 32129 38% price Cuts you're going further south I believe we saw this area looking hot before on inventory still climbing but this is 24% price Cuts again I think these people are just reacting slowly and deliberately it's like you know what we're going to leave it that way but you can see look at these areas look at Lake Helen 32744 57% anything over 29 30% is a large large percentage of price Cuts okay we didn't see that in fact most of our average price Cuts may be one and five through most of the more balanced markets we start seeing 30% 35% 40% those are marketplaces anything here you see in red there's most likely going to be a motivated seller behind those areas at this point well that's it for now let me know in the comments below where you would like an update on next and if you need help buying a home in Florida my team and I would love to Resource you with data like this to make sure you make a great decision if you do decide to purchase now and if you're looking to sell in Florida list your home for 2.5% total information is on the screen thanks for watching we'll see you on the next one