SF Giants’ Promising Start Crumbles: 'Terrible' Situational ABs and Birdsong’s Bad Day

this game started out oh so promising for the San Francisco Giants four runs in the first inning but a complete lack of an ability to hit in situational at bats and Hayden bird song just having a really rough start sunk the Giants so it calls into question should they have traded Alex Cobb and can they hit better in clutch situations you are locked on Giants your daily San Francisco Giants podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team everyday hello and welcome to locked on Giants part of the locked on podcast Network where it's your team every day my name is Ben casic and on the show we provide daily episodes Monday through Friday talking about the San Francisco Giants in a way that's datadriven and rational but also simple passionate and accessible to all I'm a former contributor for the baseball statistics and Analysis web sites beyond the box score and rotographs I've been podcasting about the Giants since 2015 been hosting this show for over 5 years and I'm a lifelong Giants fan thank you for making lock on Giants your first listen every day we're free and available wherever you get your podcast including YouTube so check us out there if you have not already and please hit that subscribe button wherever it is that you're following the show this episode is brought to you by prize pick the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports go to prize.com SL locked on MLB and use code all lowercase locked on MLB for a first deposit match up to $100 and coming up on today's show this one hurt it it it hurt initially but then it was just like a bludgeoning when all was said and done by the Nationals against the Giants which uh it didn't look like it was going to go that way when the Giants scored four runs in the first but the pitching you know Hayden bird song had a really rough one and then the situational hitting which is where I want to start because I get into I don't want to call them arguments but like debates with people online like when we were talking about the trade deadline about is the Giants offense above average is it below average and then there's all kinds of ways you can look at that and by like simple weighted runs created plus they have been an above average offensive team but that that's context neutral it says nothing about um have they hit well in clutch situations and the answer to that is a resounding no on the season and it's been particularly acute as of late so even just on the season fan graphs has I don't know exactly what they Define as high leverage medium leverage and low leverage but you can sort by those situations you know just they're you know they they have a clue what they're doing in that in those in making those categories and in high leverage situations the Giants are 23rd in weighted runs created Plus at 85 so 100 is League average offense and the you know the median team here is at a 106 weighted runs created Plus in high leverage situation the Padre's by the way leading baseball by a enormous margin with a 160 weighted runs created Plus in high leverage situations hitting 316 398 on base 520 slugging so that's just kind of goes to show you the variance that you can get in such a category Giants are hitting 236 with a 308 on base and 347 slugging um there are some good teams below them the Braves have been worse in high leverage situations the Phillies have been worse the Phillies have one of the best records in baseball and they've been significantly worse than the Giants in high leverage situations so that means a that they've pitched better as a team probably and B that they've done better in Med and low leverage situations but nonetheless I mean if I were to sort I don't know exactly how far back we want to go here but let's just say the month of July because or excuse me August because it has felt particularly acute as of late and the Giants are dead last dead last no excuse me there's they only have one plate appearance in what fan graphs call High leverage in the month of August so that doesn't really make sense to me um um that just kind of goes to show you yeah I mean like situational hitting is not necessarily High leverage so yeah dead last but one plate appearance so that that's irrelevant um but so I guess it's kind of more more relevant to look at it on the season because when we start getting into you know samples of a few games it's just kind of like it's just noise you know and and so I don't really think it matters and ultimately this is my argument is that I think that these things are not stable and actually it's kind of funny cuz on Fang graphs they're the lead story right now as of this morning on uh August 7th is how to argue about clutchness and the little sub title is past returns are not a guarantee of future performance and so that's exactly kind of my argument but I get it like it directly correlates to wins and losses but it just doesn't directly PR predict how you're going to do in the future but for sure if you're not clutch it's going to cost you and there's no argument there it's just that just because you've done well in those situations doesn't mean you will continue to do well and vice versa I mean like what the Padres are doing is insane um anyway the Giants in medium let's just look at Runners and scoring position cuz I know this is a a term that gets used a lot and people like to talk about it and so I'll I'll use it um with runners in scoring position the Giants are third worst in terms of weighted runs created plus uh hitting 235 301 on base 372 slugging the median team is around a 110 111 weighted runs created Plus in these situations with runners in scoring positions so you know it's above a like The League hits if we just do like MLB and see what what does MLB do with runners in scoring position they hit 255 333 on base 418 slugging MLB is about 8% better than its own League average offense with so generally teams hit better than normal with runners in scoring position but the Giants hit significantly worse this year and it's again it's kind of just is it you know part of what it looks like right now is pressing which is when you're trying too hard and you really want to get it done and um when the team is where it is you know if you're like 20 games over 500 you're free and easy and maybe it's a little easier to come through in these situations but when you're like where the Giants are which is like every game matters a lot and you really want to get the job done it can cause you to go out of come out of your normal behavior at the plate and start chasing pitches out of the Zone just being too aggressive whatever the case may be so one other a couple other things to look at here in regards to the the hitting um we we can look on baseball reference and see with a runner on third and less than two outs how often does that Runner score um and for the uh League average is 51.2% of the time so it is worth pointing out that about half the time teams fail to get that Runner in so it's not like an automatic run like you shouldn't assume that guy is going to score a ton you know he's he's going to score about half the time in that situation and it it also really largely depends too on is the infield in or his infield back and that's part of what was so frustrating yesterday is that the Nationals kept having the situation runner on third less than two outs infield back and they were like conceding the run just hit a ground ball and you score a run and the Giants time and time again were not able to score that run which is just exceptionally frustrating cuz you were they were only down by like two three runs at the time and they just couldn't you know there were like four runs that they left out there just by not being able to hit a ground ball or a Fly ball um they would hit they would strike out they would pop out or they would hit a line drive right at somebody so that's some bad luck but anyway League average is 51.2% in scoring that run and the Giants come in one 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 eighth worst at 49.1% so it's really not that different than League average 51.2% versus 49.1% it's hardly noticeable it I mean it seems noticeable but it's really two percentage points um and there are also again good teams below the Giants the Brewers have been worse the Mets have been worse the Mariners have been worse all those teams are in pretty good position and I mean some of them significantly worse than the Giants and lastly advancing a runner from second with nobody out uh runner and second nobody out League average Advance rate there is 50.9% so again only about half the time are teams advancing that Runner and the Giants are the closest team to League average at 50.8 League average is 50.9 so they're able to get that guy over at an average rate and at least they have that going for them but you got to get the guy home the whole point is you get the guy to third with less than two outs you got to score them and they've been below average at that below average with runners in scoring position below average in high leverage situations and to me it's largely random and I haven't read that fan graph's piece yet but I'm guessing it's going to say much of the same which and the proof being that you could do well one year you can do very well and then you can do very poorly on a team basis and then on an individual basis and so it doesn't really predict anything moving forward but it is super frustrating to watch so another thing that was frustrating to watch was Hayden bird song's outing and the rest of the pitching just a grind of a game on the pitching side should the Giants have traded Alex Cobb it's a question worth asking after this bird song outing we'll get into it in just a minute and before we do today's episode of Locked on Giants is brought to you in part by prize pick prize pick is America's number one daily fantasy sports app with over 5 million active members myself included it it's the most exciting and 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$100 that's code locked on MLB all lowercase by the way on prize picks for a deposit match up to $100 pick more pick less it's that easy all right here we go we're going to get into the question that bears you know asking should the Giants have traded Alex Cobb because suddenly you're leaning on these young pitchers like Hayden bird song and if they have outings like we saw yesterday it's like hey you might you might have liked to have that veteran where you know what you're going to get um and maybe have bird song as depth it's a good question to ask at this point thanks again for making locked on Giants your first listen every day for your second listen enjoyed the lock on MLB podcast host Paul Sullivan AKA Sully is here daily to provide National expertise with his trademark humor to help you get ready for the MLB playoffs here in the dog days of summer prepare for the fall classic with Sully who has it all covered every single day on locked on MLB available on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day and a reminder you can catch every pitch of the Giants Hometown broadcast with Sirius XM just download the sxm app and search the word Giants so the question that bears being asked is should the Giants have traded Alex Cobb now that we saw this most recent outing from Hayden Birdsong and which was obviously something was that was possible given that he's unpr proven and when I say unproven I mean he's he had only made a handful of starts coming into this outing he's 22 years old and suddenly that ra that was I think 297 coming into the game is 473 with an expected ra of 427 Fielding independent pitching of 502 so did they just Mis evaluate bird song is just is this just a blip uh it's all worth asking I mean he completely labored through this outing uh he allowed I mean he threw 40 pitches in a in a second inning in which the Nationals scored five runs when the Giants had staked him to a four to nothing lead I'm not trying to bury the guy but this is just the facts of the outing two innings pitched two plus Innings he went back out for the third and allowed a homer and a walk and then that was it for him seven earned runs five hits three walks one strikeout two homers and it was just a grind for everybody bird song threw 66 pitches Randy Rodriguez in two and two3 threw 56 pitches I mean the Giants threw so many pitches it felt like this game dragged on forever that just goes to show you how much the pitch clock has reduced game times because the game was only 3 hours and 2 minutes which is below what the average game was before the pitch clock but it felt like it took forever anyway to go off to get off to a 4 nothing lead and then to just get end up getting blown out after that the Giants got outscored 11 to1 um Nationals have done this to the Giants now three years in a row where they've just been impossible to put away and have just racked up hits they've had games like this against the Giants and in whole series like this even so let's hope with Blake snell a little bit of normaly returns and the better team can assert itself here and win a game with Blake Snell going against Jake uh Irvin who's having a nice season with a 356 ER and 134 Innings so it's not going to be easy but you know anytime you have Blake snow you do have the advantage and so Alex Cobb if we look at like projections Alex Cobb projected by steamer to have an erra of 360 for the rest of the season Zips projecting an erra of 384 ATC projecting an RA of 379 and and so I think like it it hindsight is 2020 and there there wasn't too much you know what what really stood out to me was when Logan web talked about them trading Alex Cobb and he said that Cobb was like his best friend in the whole Sport and you know one thing that really stood out was the depth and how you don't have it so much when once you trade out cob who by the way still hasn't pitched and so you would have had to probably use Hayden bird song anyway yesterday or that would have been a bullpen game you know and so maybe bird song this is just a blip and he dominates the rest of the season or at least is solid the rest of the season we don't know um but Alex Cobbs still hasn't debuted he's likely to debut for the Guardians um the team he was traded to at the deadline uh this weekend and so we'll see how Cobb performs he's probably not going to be able to pitch we we'll see I don't know how deep he's going to be able to pitch into games initially uh or overall he's obviously had a lot of injuries going on um so we'll see and I get I mean Hayden Birdsong came into this outing just looking like a really good young pitcher and one start shouldn't totally change an evaluation of a guy but nonetheless um in my opinion would it I mean this Prospect they got for Cobb better be someone that they really liked because otherwise it's like there's really a strong case to make that Cobb plus then having you know bird song in the miners as insurance because guys get banged up and we're still talking about about we're still talking about roughly two months of the Season left and you know Snell has had a couple of Il stints Cobb is coming off you know surgeries and blisters and setbacks so you know a known commodity and you could have you could have had Logan Webb Blake Snell Alex Cobb Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison in your rotation with Hayden bird song um I honestly feel like I'm I was even forgetting someone there uh Hayden bird song as depth and let me see was I forgetting anyone um no I don't think so uh I guess Keat and win but he's out for the season Tristan Beck coming back um I guess he could be an option if bird song falters but anyway I mean Jordan Hicks was a rotation I think that's the guy I was thinking I was forgetting but he's now out of the rotation so anyway it's certainly a question worth asking and this game may come back to haunt them I mean every game is really important and when you get off to a four to nothing lead like that in the first inning that is against the Nationals like when you're when you're kind of in must-win mode I mean it's not we're not quite in must-win mode yet but these games really matter they know that these games really matter and that was a tough one and it had a lot to do with the situational hitting but more so I think it had to do with the pitching which has been what I've been saying all season seon long that the um the pitching has been more of an issue so yeah the Giants win probability after that 4run first was about 85% so that's not like crazy High um the national still had nine innings of their own to try to come back and they very much did but on the season it's just worth pointing out like giants rank fourth worst in in winds above replace by their pitchers and Fang Fang graphs wins above replacement and they use Fielding independent pitching for that for this metric and I don't quite understand why the Giants are that low because their Fielding independent pitching is 11th best and so that kind of doesn't make sense to me their the Giants erra more importantly is 22nd at 431 and their start starting pitcher ER is 20th at 4:35 so their relief pitcher ER is um 22nd at 426 and so the pitching I continue to say it like it's easy to focus on the situational or lack thereof hitting but the Giants ultimately scored five runs you know and if you could go out there and allow four or fewer you win the game and yes you talk about the situational hitting or lack thereof but the fact is you allowed 11 runs and your starter allowed seven in two innings and two plus Innings and so that is more of the issue in this particular game but you've got Blake Snell going today and like I said hopefully things kind of normalize and Snell coming off his no hitter and just like four or five straight dominant outings can can do that the Nationals have just been tough on the Giants offensively which is weird because you know and we'll look at that their overall hitting numbers are not great but they've given the Giants fits the last three seasons in this exact kind of way where they just like won't strike out they put the ball in play they find holes and they put up big run totals which they just don't do against the whole league in General on average but they have done against the Giants with some consistency over the last few years so anyway we'll get into that and we'll get into injury updates including including Wilmer Flores with a season ending procedure on his knee so we'll get into that all of that in just a minute and before we do today's episode of lockon giants is brought to you in part by liquid IV get hydrated with electrolytes essential vitamins and clinically tested nutrients from the number one powdered hydration brand in America because baseball and summer go to together like liquid IV and indulgent hydration the benefits are numerous you can stay hydrated while traveling going to Summer Festival festivals or after a night out blast off with the iconic summer flavor of popsicle firecracker a festive blend of citrus fueled lemon lime tart cherry and raspberry flavors and you can find all your favorite flavors on their website from asai Berry and lemon lime to p colada tear pour live more one stick and 16 ooun of water hydrates better than water alone always non-GMO vegan gluten-free dairy free and soyf free no more thirsty Summers when you indulge in hydration with liquid IV get 20% off your first order of liquid IV when you go to liquid iv.com and use code MLB at checkout that's 20% off your first order when you shot better hydration today using promo code MLB at liquid IV b.com all right here we go we're going to get into this upcoming game previewing it a little bit I want to get into the Nationals offense because it's easy to look at these games and say that they're doing something that the Giants should be doing but overall that's just the Giants have just been a much better offense than the Nationals it's just been a weirdly tough matchup for the Giants in recent years and then injury up Ates including Wilmer Flores being out for the rest of the season and how that you know he does have this player option we discussed it a little bit yesterday but what does this mean for that thanks again for making lockdown Giants your first listen every day every dayers tomorrow we will be discussing this uh game I think you know I've got a flight um long story short I I do believe we're going to talk about yeah the the the game tomorrow is at 9 o'clock Pacific time and so coming up tomorrow we're going to be discussing both Blake Snell's start in game three of the series and then game four of the series being Kyle Harrison against Herz I don't even know this guy's first name DJ Herz another left-handed pitcher looks very young born in 2001 out of Oh I thought Stanford but no Sanford Sanford high school anyway we'll be breaking down two games tomorrow so um so much to get into but like the let let me just briefly look at the Nationals hitting overall so the Nationals are 25th in fan graphs wins above replacement as an offense or as like a position player Group which includes hitting base running and defense and the Giants Nationals like I said 25th Giants 11th Giants are Giants have hit 244 Nationals have hit 243 Giants have a on base percentage of 314 Nationals at 312 Giants slugging has been 399 Nationals at 376 so there's basically the average and on base are like almost identical Giants have struck out like two percentage points more but the Giants have hit from significantly more power even though the Giants haven't hit for a ton of power so the Nationals have just hit for very little power I would imagine they're near the very bottom um 25th in slugging and in ISO uh third worst 28th CJ Abrams by the way my goodness he hit a the highest ball of the year for a home run it was up near his head and he hit kind of the big swing of the game uh I think it was a three-run homer against bird song Up near like literally at his like chin level uh amazing swing and bird song oh we do have some comments by the way and we'll get to the floor as injury but on the situational at bats I meant to read this in the beginning but Bob Melvin Said our situational at bats were terrible tonight that's been a problem here for a couple of weeks now and runners in scoring position it's the cheapies that you can control trying to get a ball in the air you're just trying get a run home it doesn't take a big it doesn't take a hit to do it and that's been frustrating it sure has and of bird song Melvin said we haven't seen that there are times that he's been scattered with his fast ball but his offspeed stuff uh he's been able to throw for strikes and keep batters off balance today he just didn't have command of anything early on and they were putting some good swings on them and putting a lot of pressure on them and uh on the home run that Abrams hit I just have to say bird song said I had I have no idea how he hit that ball good for him guy can hit they can hit fast balls and I learned that I knew that going in but not many people are hitting that ball it was impressive and of his outing Birdsong says obviously I wanted to get five six seven Innings but sometimes it doesn't work that way things happen guys can hit I don't have I didn't have my best stuff it wasn't my day but I've got to be a bit better than two innings I've got to be can't hurt the bullpen like that especially with a couple more games coming up this week and Melvin said he's been good for us so uh it's just about don't worry about that when you've been good enough at uh times to where you're going to be out there again we have confidence in you and you have good stuff so yeah Elliot Ramos by the way was dealing speaking of injury with a thumb injury for the last week or so it's been affecting him but he went out there and hit a opposite field no doubter to like right center in the first inning and then conforto hit a hit a three-run homer with two outs a whole two-out rally with a a walk 10 pitch walk by Chapman a hit by pitch and then a conto three-run homer things were looking good but it but it was all downhill from there um so speaking of injuries Wilmer Flores is out for the season Wilmer Flor is out for the season after um undergoing this 10x procedure on his right knee where he has right knee tendonitis and I said you know I read the little description of this procedure and that it said it may take up to 12 weeks for Recovery to get back to strenuous activities or Sports and so that to me said he may be done for the season and in fact the Giants Bob Melvin said that he is and so obviously you know Flores hasn't performed well this season and Bob Melvin certainly said that you know that was a factor in his performance he said obviously it affected what he was doing this year he was the guy last year who led the team in home runs and he was about as clutch as you can possibly have he was fighting it all year and unfortunately we're losing him for the rest of the year which isn't ideal and Melvin said uh it's in his legs that's what he does and where he generates his power so personally I think it's affected him quite a bit and it's probably more of a question for him and he's always going to play it off and at least up until this point he'll tell you if I'm out there I'm healthy and I'm ready to play but I do think it affected him and uh Melvin Said hopefully he's 100% next year and I think he's got an option with do yes he does next year hopefully he's back he's someone I really admired from the other side in the past and he has a ton of leadership qualities here and still even though he's not here he's checking in telling me keep it rolling all the things you'd expect out of a leader he's a stud and I agree 100% And so this you know it's awful you know it's it's tough you know he didn't perform well but if it was injury related then it makes a lot of sense you know Flores has been very consistent um in his pro career and he's not like super old he's I think he turns 33 um he turned 33 yesterday the day they announced that he was going to miss the rest of the season so tough birthday for Wilmer Flores he does have a $3.5 million player option for next year which is cheap and so he very well may opt in it's just cheap enough that there's a possibility he opts out but I think he likes it here he's comfortable here he's made enough money I I do see him opting in uh but if he does choose to opt out then the Giants have an $8.5 million Club option it's a little bit of a weird setup but I think the Giants would decline that given the performance and the age in uh performance in 2024 and age in 20125 but nevertheless I hope he's back next year because I think he'll be better and that's a very reasonable salary and he's a leader on this team like Melvin Said and if he's healthy I think he'll continue to be the Wilmer floor as we've come to know and and love and expect in terms of performance and it just was an injury ravaged season with this right knee bothering him but hopefully he's back on the Giants in my opinion hopefully and healthy in 2025 so anyway that is all the time we have for today thanks again for making lockdown Giants your first listen today now go check out the lock on MLB podcast prepare for the fall classic with Sully who has it all covered every single day you can find the link to locked on MLB in the description so you don't need to search part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day once again my name is Ben casic check me out on Twitter at Ben caspit K pic if you like this show please consider rating it or leaving a review it helps me out a lot so thank you in advance and thanks to everyone who's done so already I can't wait to be with you again tomorrow remember it'll be after the finale which is at 9 in the morning um and so yeah can't wait to be with you again then two more games they're big giants at least need to win one I would say and hopefully you can win them both and Come Away with three out of four so thanks again for listening you are now locked on Giants