PGA TOUR Championship DFS Breakdown, Picks and Sleepers

hello and welcome to grandson golf dfs preview show we are talking the tour championship it is your host adam bapti and as always i'm joined by craig craig what's going on man yeah not too much i uh over the course of the day here i've gone from being a little bit unenthused about the whole uh tour championship just because of uh you know i really like those deep hundred and thirty to 150 person fields and so for dfs reasons i just wasn't super excited about it but once i dove into it a bit more um i have been getting excited about it it's uh it's a different type it's a little bit more tactical uh because of these starting scores but i still think there's really good opportunities to to try to find a good ticket so we'll run through it yeah i mean we were kind of talking earlier in the day quickly on a phone call and i was like i think i might be more excited for the safeway open next week just because you have that deep feel and you have all these names that the general viewer hasn't heard of and you kind of get to be a little bit more creative but yeah when you start to look at this list a little bit it really forces you to be creative and i think that's what's interesting about it i might not be as heavy in dfs and probably for the outright as well just with the starting scores um but with 30 guys coming in with these preset scores dj starting at 10 kind of working down to kind of that group at even what is let's go through your strategies what are you thinking for dfs builds so well we'll go through the players because i do think there's players that are are both their form is better and worse obviously dj is someone whose form is about as good as it can get maybe him and rob are in a similar similar position but really uh i mean the salaries are outrageous so typically we see the high end you'll see is about 12 000 and the low end on and this is draftkings pricing uh the low end is six but here because the you know he starts with ten shots against um the bottom of the field uh there's just the probability of him winning is so high that that this this price which i thought at first was ridiculous is actually justified right now so do you want to kind of go through the columns there a little bit and and what that means for as we break down each player yeah so so player is pretty complicated these are the players here we go um and then start so this is what their starting score is so so at the end of the of or at the on the first t dustin johnson is going to be -10 and then you can see for the most part it follows fairly closely to what they've been priced at but some of these guys like rory is only a minus three but he's priced a little bit higher than some guys who are minus four um and then you'll get down and and like victor hovland is priced at above people who are minus three even though he has zero um and then moving along we've got our our salaries here and then this is our our typical um the same model we do every week uh now because of uh so and and i guess going into that a little bit this this course plays uh so we have pretty good history for this course they've played it here since um 2000 i think it goes back as late as 98. i i went back to o4 right 045 just because that's when we get we first start getting stroke strokes gained and so uh based on that we do have pretty good um data but it's always that small field so it's a little bit different than other ones where we have the really you know extensive field lots of data every year sure and because it's such a small field it can be skewed in in different ways and so putting actually has more weight than it typically does uh it's about it's still only i just have a rough graph here it's still less than the other stats right um but you can see it's it's more significant than it is in in other weeks where it's clearly off the tee and approach that matter right um but you can see that approach uh and off the tee still are the two leading ones and and then yeah so that so that really does drive a skew towards the ball striker still but it's not as pronounced as the model the model can be in other weeks right yep and we've gone through this before but 2019 this is based only on their stats from the previous season 2020 is based only on the stats from this season and then both obviously as both of them combined and then this week this is a little bit different our our cost adjusted value because we have these altered the altered starting positions and then the altered salaries because of those starting positions and so here i've done this is based just on on 2020 stats this value here and then this this one here is based on their average stats over the past three years so not all guys will have those stats but everyone will have something for this here okay so basically when you're looking at the value stats are you kind of thinking that if they are they are in the green it means they're a better player than their then their salary kind of reflects over the last year or last three years well yeah essentially it means at that price their stats you know if these are not human beings if these are just people that produce stats then they would be better value at that based on the full year of stats so yeah so still with that like we look at dj and he's a negative value on the 20 on his 2020 stats and a very very slight negative value on 20 on last three average but that's not i mean it's not giving extra weight to these recent tournaments and so um this isn't something that you should follow like it's it's the holy it's the holy book it's more just rough guides to to try to see where there is value and i think it's also especially important to not dwell too much on value because it's much more of a you need to be much more tactical this week you need to like there's there's only so many guys that are going to be able to win and that's that's really the most important thing if you like what i what i am planning to do is to um you know enter maybe about 10 or 20 entries probably 20 entries in a 20 20 entry tournament and i want to try to have the winner and then i want to try to have guys lower down who are going to distinguish me from all of the other people who are going to have one of the few guys that are going to win the tournament or the one of you guys that can win the tournament i guess i should say right so i mean i kind of have some thoughts in terms of the overall player feel but you just want to jump right into dj and start there well yeah or the i mean the other thing i was thinking how how far down do you think we have to go so let's just say who do we think can win the tournament yeah that's a great question how far down the list do you think we can go before it's not it's not very realistic i think and this might be too generous to the guys there but i think you can't discount anyone that's three under or better right now so that takes us to 15. that includes xander patrick sebastian munoz and brendan todd i i really don't think the guys at two can get there but i also when i'm kind of building this rosters i also feel like between 11 and 30 so when we're at -3 to even the three strokes between those i'm almost treating as kind of a wash i think those can be made up especially on the course that plays harder you get a double boogie here and one guy birdies and boom they're back to even that can happen right away but in terms of the minus twos i just i don't see a minus two or more getting to the win with just and maybe that's it's because dj and rom are playing so well right now up top yeah so i'm i'm going even tighter i i think that i think the overwhelming likelihood is that one of these top four is the winner and i think morikawa has an outside shot i don't know if he i mean i i think he is as rock solid as any player but i don't know if he has enough run away from the field potential um and so i i likely will have not a ton of exposure to him this this week um bryson bryson is the one guy who i would potentially see i think may have the potential but just with his recent form i don't i don't like it like his high end can get you there but i just don't see it with his recent form and so i likely what what my plan is that i'm going to have some dj tickets because you can't you have to have dj and then you have to go way down based on salary so i'm going to have some dj tickets and then i'm going to have some tickets where i try to get say two of these three and then you know split up to the top of course rom jt and web yeah yeah yeah and then you know aside from that i'll go down down the ticket but i think between those four i'm hoping that i'll have the winner yeah i mean i i would think this is just kind of a number and pull in my head i i agree with you i think there's probably a 75 chance that the winner is in those top four dj rom jt and web and then if we go to the minus fours it's almost like a 95 kind of confidence rate anyone yeah kind of beyond that is something like we're way off kind of the narrative if that's if a minus three is getting close now the one person i would potentially give it if rory didn't have other things going on and i i think i'll likely stay away from him um but if it was a normal week and he wasn't potentially expecting a kid then just with the game that he has he could go out there and shoot eight clear the field and no problem you know absolutely so so we have very different approaches you're going to max out a 20 a 20 max tournament i'm probably gonna throw two or three lineups in kind of a big gbp and see if i can um pull away from the field somehow i don't think i don't think i can get rory in any of those and i i do agree that he's the best he's the most talented outside kind of those that top tier that might get overlooked but it's just you could easily see he's 20 30 percent owned and then he has to leave and i of course he has to leave that's way more important than the church tour championship but that might happen like that is a possibility i think yeah i think the only way realistically that and there's so little i don't know if anyone actually knows when they're expecting or anything like that and i think it's it it starts to make fantasy dfs golf become ridiculous so it's it's silly to speculate but i think that rory's i mean rory's head's in the right place he's not gonna he's gonna if saturday night he gets the call he's gonna go be with his family and that's the right thing for him to do he's already won two he's already won two fedex cups he's got no kids yet so maybe if he's if he's like got three or four if he's getting philip rivers number of kids then maybe he he needs to stay at work but if you're any yeah you're leaving not a question about it so can you pull up draftkings actually for a moment because i did have a interesting build that i kind of wanted to run through you if we're kind of talking just looking at the field if you throw in the minus four guys so if you go burger english i like burger hideki who else was around there i'm trying to find now and kind of start there i forget who else i had there or maybe xander and final and just go down the ticket a bit and just going straight middle pack kind of those fours and threes you have to then go down the ticket for one guy so then you're looking at like a horror show right is that yeah horseshoeing down yeah is that completely crazy to think if i just put one ticket with all those guys that they maybe they they're not in the top four but they could kind of get there if there's a small chance they could win and you just lump them all together so i don't like it and my reason being that i i think because of how skewed the finish position is um with where did i uh 30 points at first with 30 points going to first and then it drops down to 18 for second i think i think you need to get the winner and so that's why what i what i plan to do is say say i end up with 40 of my tickets are dj and then the other ones are split up with with a mixture of these guys yeah what i'm then gonna look for because as soon as you put dj in um you um i think your average is about yeah so about 7 000 right so the rest of your lineup has to be from down here so what i will look to do is look for these guys down low that have the chance to move up so like if they can increase their position from there and i have the winner then i'm feeling good and that's where else all you know so say say i do i want to put 20 in i'll put 21 tickets in and i will have you know maybe i'll have two with horseshoe and i'll spread i'll spread out down here and i'm really going to concentrate with those guys that i think have have the best shot to win so yeah let's let's talk let's okay let's just get into let's start talking about dj let's say for our purposes he has a 20 chance to win do you think that's kind of realistic what do you put it around there i'd put it higher than that i think i 20 to 30 let's call it my only my problem with like yes he's the most likely person to win i completely agreed but if you're looking at 29 guys versus him it's more likely that one of the other 29 is going to get there and like you said when you put dj when you plug them into the lineup you're then looking at 7 000 under 7 000 for the remaining roster you have to build it's it's hard to get creative when you do that i might have one dj lineup where i try to get a little bit creative and maybe leave a lot of salary on the table and differentiate that way but i i feel like there's going to be yeah maybe the the winner in a gbp will have dj and then fill out the roster but if 40 of the lineups start that way it's hard to be different see i'm not looking to be different i'm not looking to be a cute snowflake um no i just so so i always told me that i'm so special and unique and i so the way i look at it it's not necessarily that dj's going to win and this is why i want to diversify throughout these four i think that it is the potential for say jt to beat dj by three strokes this weekend i'd say that's decent you know and the same thing with rom beating dj by two and webb beating him by four but once you start to get down so say berger who i really like and i'm gonna try to get into some of my lineups if i can as a second guy right right but he would have to not only beat dj by six this weekend he'd also have to beat web by two and j t by three and rom by four so it's it's not so much can they get can they catch dj it's can they catch dj while everyone else is trying to make that move as well and i just don't see like i could see dj falling off but i don't see any of these guys who are down lower really just like exploding out from this pack of guys here right but i i and i i i'd have to think about the numbers a bit more before i would say whether it's you know 35 or 40 percent or what how many times that we run this tournament for dj to win or lose you know um but i i think after somewhere after webb maybe you can include colin murakawa if if you like his game here which is not a bad thing because as we've spoken about before he is really good approach game and this course has been shown uh to be to be favorable towards it yeah i i think i mean yeah i think we i mean i'm almost ready to move on from dj so i just the last thing on dj i guess i have not been high on him because of how scattered his stats have been but you can't not see like the last months of golf that he's played and like that's how i feel at this point that man there's until i see him starting to hit some bad shots i'm going to assume he's hitting that cut pretty much where he wants it to go how is his tee shot on the playoff hole well he knew the tree no i i hear ya but his approach also his approach didn't uh fade into the hole either uh i think i keep hearing the broadcast that he wants the fedex cup he want like he really wants to win this dj yeah are you buying that or is that i mean of course i'm buying probably that he really wants to win it yeah of course he wants to win what is it 15 million now yeah i don't think like he's been a great player for a long time i don't think it's any i don't think he's changed from 17 or 18 to 2020 necessarily yeah and honestly like i really struggle with the whole they want it they you know like extra motivation i really struggle with that i i think maybe maybe there's outside chances where people get complacent because they're really more worried about another tournament that's coming up but i think for the most time these guys want to there's huge money online all these guys are going to try as hard as they can to get every stroke they can out there yeah before we move on uh i don't know if you sent me your picks for the week is are we moving on from the dj or is he your pick are you figuring out that light i'll have to think i'm going to do it yeah so oh yeah we're doing it live um what are so how are we doing our picks are we doing with the starting yeah it's whoever whoever wins in the so i'll give you a spoiler as we move into john rob john robinson i picked a win last week i know way out from left field whatever i still picked him he took it home i'm gonna pick him again this week i i think the one the narrative i actually really do like is that he wants to be number number one in the world and i think he just he has this killer fire instinct inside him right now or i feel like all he's looking is that dj and then kind of clearing the rest of the field and holding them back kind of like like tiger of old almost so rom is my pick to win and the guy below is kevin's pick to win jt that's who kevin selected well i guess i'll take dj if no one else is i'm gonna take the i'll take the secretariat coming into the third leg of the triple crown just isn't that sexy for you there yeah um the other thing i was going to say about rom he's he moved up into the top spot uh this i think it was just this past week i noticed it as i was going through the stacks for strokes gained total uh he moved into the top spot this week and maybe it was just because bryson has fallen off so much so i guess with rom and my strategy i would rather go rom and jdt or rom and web and build with a slightly less salary than just a dj so yeah so the one you like and i like this a lot too and that's why i'll do a split between these two types so say we were to do um rom and jt it leaves us 63 average which in a normal week you're down to the bottom of the barrel but this week there are lower salaried guys so it leaves you decent you can still diversify decently um and well let's also just say the the guys at the bottom okay mark leishman hasn't been doing well i get that but they're still the top 30 in the fedex have standings you know i mean you go to cameron smith you go to cameron champ you go to mackenzie hughes these guys are all top talents they get a couple birdies and they're in the middle of the pack right now yeah you're not scraping the barrel here you're i mean you're scraping like the golden tier of golf yeah so i i guess absolutely and i think that's where that's why i think what you do is you take a couple like a couple of those guys and then you you just have to try to diversify down here to get your unique lineups um but the alternative so with salaries you could have dj and hideki who's at 93 yeah or you could have rahm and jt so if you think that collectively ram and jt have a better chance you know one of those two winning than dj then get most of your lineups done that way i just i think that both those are pretty realistic alternatives and i'd rather have the guys i really like to move up down here on tickets with both of those you know i agree and so between um rom and jt you like ron better i like ron better we we talked about on the podcast last night i think when you look at both of them they don't have a real weakness in their game which is why they are i think those guys are are two of the top four golfers in the world and apologize but i don't think webb is the fourth i think it's rory they they don't have a weakness and when jt is playing bad he's not he's not that i mean like his his bad is still very very good and i think he said he closed sunday at bmw with a pretty good score yeah the the recent stuff does bug me a bit for jt just because it has he hasn't been in great form since he he was it looked like he was i mean he was number one right after the after the fedex and had just lost in a playoff two weeks earlier it i guess three weeks it just i mean what last week the tie for 25th that's his best result in about a month so yeah it's it's just not what you expect from jt and that's i know he's the type of guy that can turn it around and and so i'm i'm gonna have ownership on him it's just for me that's really i i'm much more um if i had to make a choice between these two then i would i would pay up for rom i think yeah i based on recent form i've only built two lineups so far and jt wasn't in either right now and and that's the thing that scares me most about those two lineups not who i picked at the bottom it's it's not having jt because i feel like i feel like he can flip it on very quickly and look like he's number one in the world easily yeah so and then that takes us down and these are huge salary jumps too from yeah and it just reflects the the stroke that you get to start and then into web you said you likely will not get much web was that what you were saying or no actually when i built my first lineup i went rom and webb and i mean i'm not going to guess ownership levels here i think webb maybe he could go a little bit under own because he's not as sexy as jt maybe not even as much as morikawa but he's just it's just a clean game he has right now he is i mean you can see right there his his stroking stats at wyndham and northern trust he's looking good and he's looked good for a while i i like webb yeah i don't know now what do you think about the week off do you think that do you think that has worked to his benefit getting the rest not playing a tough course or do you think that he would have been better off playing not losing i mean it would have been difficult for him to not lose a spot because i mean he would have basically i personally love the week off i think rom will be fine jt will be fine hey maybe dustin i mean he's not as young as these guys maybe his back's a little bit stiff webb hey he just gotta rest he lost one stroke by not hacking it around olympia fields for four rounds i don't know i don't know if it was gameplay or if he truly needed the rest i don't think he's injured i i'm not like by no means so i think that i think it's just kind of a savvy move well he's also a carolina or carolina or a georgia boy somewhere around there yeah um but so this is instead of going to chicago uh and then going i mean this the tournament is in atlanta this week so uh it's much closer to his home so it essentially gives him that that week and that break from traveling uh because instead you know he would have gone from boston home and now to atlanta instead of going boston chicago atlanta right um so yeah no i i like it i will end up owning uh having some ownership exposure to him um and we'll see yeah markawa so yeah like like i was saying earlier obviously his approach game is well suited i i think we get are now at the point where it becomes pretty difficult to win but i don't i don't think it like it's not impossible i just think we're starting to get into really really long odds that someone down here is going to beat four of the best golfers in the world by more than a clean start you know it's you're trying to make up ground on them um but no his his recent form is all right um not great this past week and he did miss the cut at northern trust but obviously the the pga championship and the work they win in the playoffs so he's done well in strong fields yeah i don't like he just seems in this weird kind of forgotten land at five under compared to the guys at four under which maybe have history here or it's not kind of their first their first goal at east lake marcow i don't know it's i yeah i feel like he's more likely to kind of fall a little bit maybe into a top ten than he is to kind of jump into the top three and you're and you're paying for that top five so i don't feel great about it but it i don't see myself owning him in at all i think likely for me the difficulty will be because i want to have exposure to these guys above him that price it becomes difficult to get other guys in around this price range and i think likely i'll have to drop down lower and so not because i i don't like his game or anything it's more just where he sits in this pricing structure it's going to be difficult for me to find uh ways to get him into my lineup yeah yeah see now when we go we drop down to bryson we're four under we're already six back from dj but i feel like i can't for some reason i can't ignore him and he hasn't been i mean you can see all those reds at the bottom with his recent results but he i don't know he and there you go and there's the green kind of going before it it's a long course bryson can he's just an electrifying player and if he turns on his putting a little bit and his approach gets better maybe i don't know maybe it all comes together for him i like him this week so i don't um in part i think recent form but it's again it's the price point i i think i i think the chances of him winning are so long that i'm gonna own guys it's just gonna be tough for me to get the extra guys in at that price point and so uh you know the reality is with the way he's approaching the game right now he easily could make up these strokes he he's a very very volatile in terms of what his score his potential range of results are so he may make me look silly and he wins this thing by four strokes um but he won't he will make silly no one's predicting that but of these guys he is that one that could have that he won't make anyone look silly because he is so silly looking for he's like i'm trying to think of other sports and going back to football like is he kind of like that that cat the receiving running back where he can kind of get 30 40 fantasy points in a week but you don't know when that week is going to come or he kind of falls off completely like he did last week or the week before that he's kind of that high highs and but also he has those low lows yeah i mean i think the uh the fantasy football comparison i would use would be there's those receivers that they're going to get you 10 to 15 points consistently every week yeah and then there's the other ones that'll get 25 30 one week and then three the next and it's seeming like he is more that type of person who's he's gonna have big weeks and he's gonna have weeks where it's not there yeah so i mean if i'm building three four lineups i'm probably gonna take a like what's my scenario if bryson wins let me take a flyer he's my highest priced guy because he has to beat all those other guys so they're naturally falling back so you run those scenarios in your head right if bryson's my highest price guy that means dj didn't play well rom didn't play well jt maybe was around even like hovered around t3 that's i think you have to build those narratives how well okay well if my running back's getting all these catches that means they're probably from behind blah blah blah and you work it out and you kind of create that narrative or that game script in your head yeah i don't know right i don't think i'm going there cameron champ or something because hey you know what maybe these bombers kind of have an advantage so you go bryce and champ and then you kind of fill it in a little bit well if you get bryce and champ i think you can have a pretty nice rest your lineup because the champ's cheap and so you know you can you can fill out your lineup from the the rest of these guys who are kind of at the 3 and 4 under to start range i think i think there is a path where that happens and we're talking a very slim probability but why not kind of take that shot rather than let me let me put in dj and then find the five other perfect plays to go with them i almost see i yeah i mean it's just different approaches i i think that the the say 80 to 90 percent of the times you run this one of these four guys wins i agree yeah i agree and so if that's overwhelming likelihood i then want to try to get the win and then get the get the fillers but yeah i mean there are there are alternatives where where someone does come from below so it's just it that and that's where when i first was approaching this i really didn't like i was like this whole starting starting score thing i just don't like but um it does introduce different tactics and it should be a little bit entertaining to see what like this is the first time i've i've looked at it in this way and so it'll be interesting to throw that against the wall and see what works yeah uh rory so we spoke about rory a bit i think that if everything he he would be as low as i think can realistically just outright win this thing um right i don't think for other reasons um i mean his reason for him isn't great he played better last week than he had in the in the weeks prior but uh i i think the potential that he might just up and leave the tournament uh i don't think i'm gonna have any ownership exposure to him which is unusual because oftentimes he he ends up in my lineups i completely agree and maybe he goes on her own because of that but i you never know what's gonna happen he's gonna if he has i'll be happy if he wins the tournament i'll be happy and if i miss out on it it is what it is but there's so much else going on i mean you just kind of wish him well and wish his family well and i think the one argument that you could make would be the one you were sort of alluding to that his ownership is going to be low because of the speculation and then right it turns out his kids do in october or something you know like like how do i not notion about this well because i i will honestly i totally respect it he said basically that he didn't feel like it was necessary to share it and respect um yeah props to him um hideki yeah i mean i think running the model it seems like a ball striking course he's a ball striker things started clicking for him at b w championship he's an interesting price point yeah i mean i see it i see it as kind of like like you said uh dj and then decky's number two or maybe you go rob or jt and then hideki's number two and even more balanced build i i might not get there but i do like the play i'm going to end up with hideki and so i i really like hideki because he he always shows up the model his ball striking is elite and has been for years but the thing with hideki has always been his putting is suspect and at points this year it's been really bad losing this was this was even lower a few weeks back it was down i think what i want to say at like point six or maybe point seven uh so i think in large part that's why his value for 2020 shows negative but this down here you know one week of this is variance two weeks of this three weeks that might start to be a trend you know like three weeks in a row he's been positive putting uh i know watching the broadcast it didn't like there was a few lag pots that looked ugly but he was doing a really good job making putts and you know maybe that's one of those things that they'll follow some weeks and not other weeks but i don't know if he did a good job i think he did an average job but he's so good at like the rest of his game that sometimes that's all he needs to be top three or win yeah and and average for a pga tour professional average ring yeah not my average putting day um this is another guy sorry is there anything more in hideki i was gonna say the only the reason i might not have hideki because burger burger keeps finding his way i ca i keep trying to run these simulations to build these lineups and burger just keeps getting in there i think i think i'm gonna end up with uh as much burger as i can it yeah i can't get away from him right now i mean the stats are crazy he's the highest in strokes gains since the restart uh if you look at i mean his finishes even last week he didn't play that well and he was still 25th which i mean as we were going through it i think that was i think he was tied with jt that's jt's best finish in in a few yeah um yeah i i just find a whole lot of reasons to like burger i think he'll be popular but hey i'm on him again or i'm on him as well i yeah it just it seems to be a fit i i don't know what it also like or he's at that number where you know maybe he doesn't catch whoever ends up winning but maybe he get he plays his way into the top five or he you know he doesn't need to do that much to to make up strokes to get into a better finishing position and the way he's been playing shows that that's a very realistic possibility yeah x-men winner here previously what do you think so the biggest thing i don't like about xander this week i think is the fact that he's priced like i don't love this i i i get that zander um you know he's a better ball striker he does have more potential to move way up the leaderboard but harris english i don't think he should have us he should be priced above him when harrison english has a stroke on him to start and like a stroke can disappear sorry what do you okay you disagree yeah he he he won here his first time mode he's got a seventh and a second as well like if we're talking about horse for the course we talk about webb with wyndham maybe this is xander's track it could be and and his recent play like so i guess i should take a step back because i will end up owning xander so it's not like i'm negative on him i just don't love the value as much as i would like to i think that um he for me he's going to be the point where he can play himself up the leaderboard i don't think he's going to win it and i also i just like the value of harris like harris has been playing great he has good recent form he has played great through the season um also a georgia bulldog harrison that means anything yeah so i guess i i i just keep wanting to move on to harris english but xander let me think so so this is this is this is where i got kind of got to that balance line up in my head because i kept kind of putting in these lineups and i go matsuyama burger xander harris and i bought it's like this weird bundle i feel like a cell phone kind of sales person right now but if you bundle all these together at two and a half chant and then you collectively have a 10 chance i i don't know maybe i'm crazy so i think what i'm what i'm gonna end up doing is there's this range of guys from hideki to harris maybe yeah um i think that my my tickets where i have dj i'm gonna usually have dj and one of these guys and then i like hoping that one of these guys moves up enough and then the rest of my ownership will be down here and i'm looking for the guys that'll move up so i i actually really like that strategy as well i'm not going to get reed because i don't i don't like i don't like where he is um where's gain yeah he was my fade last week and he he hasn't shown me anything that that he should be crossfired i i think this 93-87 range though i think that all those guys i like the value in them yeah i agree english i also think that one of the things about harris uh i don't think i mean anyone can move down obviously at any point but i don't think he's gonna blow up no i think that i mean you look at his his recent results he they were straight top 25s until last week when he was 40th so i don't think he has tremendous potential to move up but he's not going to give strokes away easily so you know say dj holds on you've got harris and then you have a few other guys that shoot up the leaderboard then maybe you got a good chance yeah i i really like harris as well um i think he's just been playing really well it kind of seems like a resurgence for him i i'll definitely have a stake in him how that's built i'm not exactly sure yet i love that he's here and yeah i think i think he can move up for sure okay uh pat reed yeah i think awesome he's a fade for both of us right i yeah i don't like him oh i guess um he might actually be my fade if uh yeah he'll he'll be my fade this week there you go it's that easy book it i think he has one top ten in six tries here as well i mean patrick reed can get hot with the putter at any point and but i just don't i don't think he has a firepower to move up the leaderboard enough um yeah we'll see what happens fatim fino definitely not him oliver female he was my uh he was my stock up in her podcast i i love his games that i said the win is looming what's he starting out at i think you're covering it there two two he's he's not gonna he's probably not gonna win this week it would be extreme extreme goal for him to win this week i think a big win is looming though i love his game right now i i'm gonna have fino for sure yeah i i don't um i don't mind it uh i i do like yeah i i like it the difficulty is gonna be how do i get him into lineups i think maybe he'll be the third guy with some of my you know say i get rom and web and and then him and then i i have to go down into the lowest range but um i like him he's played well of recent besides miss cuts but he's got a lot of top tens he's hitting the ball well lots of reasons to like him i like scottish shaffler as well they're both starting at two under right i think i mean we had that 59 a couple weeks ago with northern trust he's just been playing really well i think also we talked about this on the pod but i think there's a little about like a defense play about getting rookie of the year and holding off hoffman i think if he can move up into a top five top i mean top five would be extraordinary even a top ten he kind of cements that rookie of the year talk yeah i also i mean if you look at it his past five starts or top 25s um he's playing so well ball striker i mean i yeah there's no reason why he shouldn't be a fit here yeah i think the only reason is that there's the only the 30 best golfers so it's just it's it's more what how how are the cards gonna fall this weekend yeah um yeah no i i'll end up with some some ownership of scotty shaffler brendan todd so he'll be the lowest oh no we've got munoz down here i was gonna say he's the lowest guy we have started at minus three but yeah he's the second of three uh georgia bulldogs i believe i i don't know i keep not playing him what was his result this week it's t or the the past week of time eight he's playing well i mean it's hard to deny he just doesn't pop because he hits fairways he hits greens and he rolls in pots because he's one of the best putters on the planet so he doesn't jump off in the models but if you do that you're gonna you're gonna find yourself at the top of these leaderboards yeah i think the toughest thing for for um todd is that that's sort of the ceiling for him in like you know he was in contention in a few events earlier after the restart but i really think because of his ceiling when it comes to ball striking that when it when it comes to elite fields i just don't see him i don't know if he's better than the average in a in a field like this yeah and and that's saying because the average is going to be the 15th best player of the year you know it's it's it's just i i also think because of my my strategy is going to be in this range i want guys that can move up i think he's likely going to end somewhere fairly close to where he begins i i think that's fair i think he could sneak into the top ten sorry where is he he's 11th in fedex cop so sneaking into the top 10 isn't doing a whole lot it's just a weird range i mean him at 76 sanjay at 73 and hadden at 7 000 and so i like sanjay and and this is this is going against the grain because i i mean you had him as your stock down this week and i was gonna have him as my stock down except you had already taken him sorry to find someone else to talk about but so the reason he's my stock he was my stock down this week is because he's one of my guys he's my boy he i i don't know i i love his game but it's just he burned me week after week got to week finally i had to say kind of okay sanchez you proved to me you're back i can't keep kind of like buying as it's like following the catchy knife and buying stocks as it keeps going lower and lower this give me a small uptick and then i'll kind of i'll come back to you but right now i can't yeah so so i agree except for the fact that he's minus four to start and they have him down here like the next lowest guy is harris english who is 8 700. and so the talent's there well and that's the thing so because yes his recent stat his recent play has not been great he is capable of playing well and he doesn't like he doesn't even need to get all the way back to form he just he's underpriced for the amount of like for his starting position so i'm not going to have him in 30 of my lineups but i'm gonna have him in five or ten percent because there is just the potential that he is you know he's not back to being really good yeah he's he's good enough and and so he doesn't even need to move up the leaderboard he just needs to actually stay at his minus four you know relative to wherever the field's moving uh uh relative to par but he just sort of has to hold his position and have value at 7 300. yeah i think the the if you go from brennan todd down to kisner i think one of those guys is going to kind of define maybe the winning lineup and it's really hard to know who that is they're all oh no it's not it's going to be uh terrell hatton okay so let's move on the hat you're high on hat um well so basically once we're down at this range from i would say past scotty sheffler say yeah down so 7 600 down all the way to 5 000. this is for me this is where it's going to be one yeah um in the big guaranteed prize pool tournament and so hatton is just one of those guys that if he gets hot he'll charge up the board and and i like you know again i want some exposure to that and and this is where i like my philosophy of building lineups better than yours if so i think we've spoken about this a bit but basically if both of us were putting twenty dollars in i would put in 20 different one dollar lineups whereas adam might do four times five a few yeah and and so i just i i like it because then you get exposure to these people that you might not be putting in if you were doing fewer lineups i yeah i hadn't might make a lineup of mine i think he's too talented and has too much experience to be around there i mean we saw just a little while back before the wgc how good his kind of ball striking was well i guess that was a lot of putting but he he's an all-world talent i mean when you're getting down here and you have to pick between these guys i'd rather have a guy that has been around been in these majors been in these tough tests has played all over the world i i like that experience for a guy to turn it around a little bit more quicker possibly yeah and i mean it has been putting and but he he should be a good butter based on his stats and his t degree t green game has been uh good this year so there's there's reasons to like him as someone who could potentially move up the board i'm kind of the split between you and kevin i feel like you're all data he's all gut hadn't's just another guy i'd like to cheer for so he might make more lineups i also love him on the broadcast yeah i love how i love the constant banter yeah what like that there was no reason that should have gone this way there's a ridge right there i don't understand what just i just love guys like that that think out loud it makes it so much more enjoyable to follow yeah um kisner what do you think uh the last georgia bulldog i think if i did my research correctly i kisner has been backing into these top tens he's yeah he's a georgia boy i mean let me take a look i don't have any so you don't have any east lake history yeah oh sorry no i'm working so i ran out of paper so i got my like dewey tank paper here oh yeah so there's like all these different grids going around yeah he is a third and ninth in his last two trips a 26 and 28 before that it's just so hard because it doesn't seem like he's the fit but his approach has been strong he's just he doesn't have that length so it doesn't it doesn't get you excited about kind of going low and catching these guys so we've got our most expensive guy who starts at minus one as well interesting yeah he and i think that's based largely on recent form his uh five straight top 25s including two top fives i don't know if i'm gonna get there i i think that um yeah i don't know i might end up with him in one or two but i think likely i'll probably stay away because i i want to find i like other value yeah down here i want to get there i i just have to figure out how i i do want to get there my fourth line if i just have to figure out how um your boy victor hovland i i i'm trying to create that narrative in my head that he comes he gets a top five and takes home rookie of the year but with his recent recent form i i just don't know if i can get there i think he's going to be a pass for me this week yeah and i mean i don't mind interim so again this is where the the starting the starting um position comes into play so much because based on the actual fit for the course he's better than anyone else below hatton right on the stats this year but because like he's our most expensive guy that starts at even and and so i just don't like the value it it his recent forum is middling um and so i i just i would rather spend on say billy horschel who has you know he is potentially more volatile uh but he's almost a thousand cheaper and he does have some high finishes and has some decent play of recent yeah it's just it's hard with a guy like that when we talk about talent because you know he has that talent but i i don't think i'm gonna get there this week and i'd rather have for three hundred dollars cheaper i'd rather have neiman yeah joaquin even your guy your boy you get two strokes on you know you get two strokes on hotland as well so um so yeah i i like neiman i think that he's exactly the type of this is the type of person i want to sprinkle in these lineups he could end up last in this tournament but he also could end up being the the person who who moves dramatically up to leaderboard he's one of the guys you like in no cut right because he is volatile that having four days of his birdie making capabilities usually translates well and into draftkings the my hesitation with him is because he dominated i think kind of that middle broadcast window on sunday that he will be popular that's my hesitation with him yeah i and i i think that is a very real possibility but i'll end up with some exposure to him just because i do think he has the potential to move up and so he's he's in the price range where i'm going to be looking for people to fill lineups and he's got that potential to move up so yeah um but yeah ownership could be an issue with him yeah answer i mean sir kind of at the start of the year middle middle part of the year he just doesn't seem to be doing well right now he's he's i feel like he's that wet or that iron player that would do well here but uh his forms i can't i can't get on board with his form yeah i i'll potentially end up with him in a bit uh he has burned me a bit lately but i expect his ownership is not going to be as crazy as some of the other guys down here all right guys have the potential to to make scores so um do you think munoz will be i mean he's minus three and he's he's there so you know i i was gonna bring up i i think uh shoot i my uh that had that accent yeah so for those watching the sebastian munoz has accents on his names and so often times when i when i use these spreadsheets that automatically pull from other other spreadsheets and whatnot i don't get all the names to match up properly so uh he does have recent results here uh but we just don't have him handy um so munoz he's the lowest guy at minus three craig you're gonna have to fix that when uh my boy rasmus hoygard comes over and he starts dominating the pga circuit because he's got a i know he's got a tree so i i and i did fix it for strokes gained i just didn't get it for the recent results um but i do know uh munoz was tied for eight last week and uh 18th the week before so he has good recent play uh he he did not have great recent play up until those two weeks um but he has been playing well he's too low for his starting position and he's the kind of guy that has huge volatility which i love you know he could he could shoot up the leaderboard or he could be the last place person in the tournament so my hesitation and maybe this is why kind of answer is kind of becoming a little bit sexier to me is because neiman will i think will be really popular in munoz just because he has that three strokes down there and he has kind of done well the last couple tournaments i think will be popular as well which might leave answers kind of that forgotten man but his form just isn't there so i don't know about munoz this week so the one thing i was thinking is they don't actually they're not actually displaying anywhere on here what their starting position is which is a little bit odd to me um because i think music yeah i think munoz would if people were just casually looking at this and not bothering to go to the other you know the the fedex cup starting positions or our nice handy model um they wouldn't necessarily think that he is at minus three i think most most will but yeah i think there you'll see potentially maybe that 10 that won't kind of take that into account yeah well they're picking their stars and then they're just filling out the bottom of their lineup yeah but so you like portial as well so sorry you like answer just because you think neiman and munoz are going to attract ownership that's what you were saying i like answer as a pivot play and because i know the talent is there with his irons but it's hard for me to get there with his current form is so i i don't know if i'll get there but i do i like the pivot yeah um i like i like horseshoe i look so i'm gonna end up with lots of these guys around this range so i'm gonna sprinkle ownership and he'll be included um yeah he has shown good play of light it hasn't been all good but it's more just the ability to be able to go low that's what i'm looking for and and so he's coming in fairly you know with fairly good form so so we'll see yeah i i don't know if i'll get there i yeah lanto what do you think about atlanta he could be forgotten i mean he you see kind of the green from last week i'd like that i like the fact that he's just under herschel uh just above kevin naw which is kind of more popular name he could be one of these guys that i mean we only have 30 guys so you need to find people that aren't going to be popular maybe he's kind of in the in the bottom 10 guy zone or five guys owned so i like the fact i i've also had that line of the balance lineup i was looking at we're finished at herschel and i want to be even more different so i go to atlanto to kind of i don't know i can i see the play he's our cheapest minus two as well so you know he could bogey his first two holes and him and billy horshall are in the same spot or or horsha could come up with two birdies straight and uh orlando makes two birdies straight and all of a sudden he said minus four so um i'll all end up with lionel griffin um and yeah we'll see what way it goes and same thing with kevin uh i i i like um i like that we're just at a range of guys down here where they're volatile and they're not consistent if they were more consistent with their good play they would be higher up here but they do have the ability to go low yeah for some reason i don't know if i can get to kevin or palmer just with champ hughes and uh cameron smith right there i feel like maybe their ownership will be that popular but i feel like i like those three plays almost up until answer maybe if the guys above them like i like more than munos and horshall and griffin that's that's where i'm leaning yeah so i this is where i i you know it depends how much i spread things out but um these guys are all showing up as negative value and so i'm gonna do a little more more digging into that but i i there there's a good chance that i won't end up with any of these bottom four whoa yeah interesting so we'll have to see with the just as i as i start to make my lineups and and i have to come into the pricing but yeah i mean mackenzie hughes i would love to get him in some the one thing the argument that could be made for him i think is that he sorry he's playing great golf he's playing great golf and and he has played great golf at um tougher tournaments and better fields which it's not like he you know billy horschel his best finishes at the wyndham when most people weren't playing there um uh mackenzie hughes like the travelers memorial and last week those are all top tens and those are all stacked fields this year so so um uh kevin her other brother kind of pointed out he did a 90 to one each weight bet uh for mackenzie hughes as kind of low overall 72 without the handicap the the starting scores i thought it's kind of a funny bad so i kind of i went in on that too it's a long shot but hey why not he's playing well into back the only canadian in the field right these are also just ridiculous numbers these punting numbers so if you can if he can putt well i mean if you can putt well anything can happen and so a guy like him it's sort of like being a puncher yeah puncher's chance yeah for sure uh cameron champ i think there's a lot going on uh with him right now he's been more in the media than probably ever in his life uh especially with all the black lives matter and everything like that i love i love how strong he is off the tee typically for well i mean even when he's been poor he's been kind of positive off the tee i think he's one of these guys that he's he i think he is volatile he has a good and maybe there's less pressure and he can kind of swing freely i like dpp play i like it and probably that's probably the only way i like it i i he's my he's my sleeper of the week and it's only for dfs not for oh rape betting but i i like his talent at this at this uh salary i guess yeah um i hear you i i think that uh the other thing with cam champ is that when he is when he does play well uh it can be you know like pga championship at time for ten that easily could have been a top five um yeah he yeah it's just this recent form that really has bothered me i think maybe it's a little bit of um you know when you've when you've lost on a guy a few times in a row it's just hard to keep going back to the west and so that that is coming into it a little bit for me um he's got a lot working against him because he's he's starting at zero this is only you know essentially it's only golfers who are as good or better than him so so he has to do work to to move up in the field over the course of the week but you know it's similar to putting just in a different way with a the way he drives the ball it's just like having a puncher's chance so if he can um if he can the thing that i have found with him is that it's it's really like his scrambling can be the weakness uh i mean putting can be volatile for everyone but it seems to be when he's not doing a good job scrambling that it really is the one that uh is affecting his rounds the most but i don't know if that's actually statistical or if i am just if that's just anecdotal well i think the other thing with that is when you get to these harder courses it's harder to hit the greens in regulation and everyone's scrambling and then you look at like bogey voidings and around the green kind of stat lumps into that and i i loved it around the green staff for the bmw because the greens were so hard i think it's very rare to actually find when you go the dj rom rory berger all these guys are typically positive around the green and that's kind of how they stay i mean that's how their floor is so high and that's the thing is is champ can drive the ball as well as the best players but they have that as well as the complete lack of any weakness in their game at least statistically you know um and i mean when you're looking at this guy essentially a rookie he's a second year player um but that's just where he has to has to grow in the next few years but we think of those top guys and they need yeah they need one good shot to make par you kind of talk about like they can go rough they can go beside the green they can one bugger and they make a pie like oh there's a par safe well when you think of these other guys with less experience and you think if they get one bad shot you worry about it compounding into a bogey or possibly double bogey right yeah um i guess i i realized here uh i never actually got my sleeper the week in um because i hadn't thought about this till we started and so i think that i i don't want to get too high up here for sleepers because these guys are barely sleepers when it comes down to it so i'm going to say uh i'll go with ryan palmer okay i he's one of these guys he can go either way on a leaderboard and so i don't mind him as someone who might shoot up it and and again for me less so i just because i think there's so few people that can win the tournament this is more just for dfs reasons i think that i think that he does have the potential to move up the leaderboard and at that price he's going to end up in a lot of my lineups i also i i like cameron smith down here i think can we go on his recent results because i know before the bmw he had actually improved every single week and i don't know if that continued or not sorry it's just a little bit small on my screen did he what was his place last week uh 20th so he actually he went from 18th to 20th so it was a real step back for him but yeah so i guess he didn't he didn't improve but he's been trending in a really good direction he's a i think he's a talented guy that when you're in this range if they can get top 15 i think you're happy right rostering these guys i think that's i think that's something that is definitely achievable for him well and also like these other tournaments like memorial that's tough cut to make pga championship tough cut to make uh northern trust tough cut to make the bmw and the and the fedex weren't were no cut tournaments but um just the fact that he made the cut across all of those he's playing pretty good golf so if you're making 20 lineups and leashman has was so far removed from the rest of the pack at the bmw do you sprinkle one with leishman just like so i was actually thinking about this because of how ridiculously low owned i mean he was what was he 30 over this past week i don't know um i think he was 30 over uh but he also like he's the type of guy that there's no reason for him to be playing that bad and i guess i i'll have to look into it a bit more i haven't had him in lineups in a while so i haven't paid close close enough attention to them fortunately last week i didn't have them in lineups but um this is why i'm on ownership is going to be so low on him that just as a differentiator i might end up with it hey he shot 73 on sunday so yeah he finished 30 over but he got better yeah and that's i mean that's almost like that's about average for the field that day it i don't know it's kind of it's it's crazy the fact that he was 30 over but it's i mean he's still like oh like how long he's been around it's still mark leishman he's he's what's this i i forget where yet he's out in official world golf ranking but he's a top player i mean he's always around yeah um and that's where i say i'll have to do a little bit more digging into it because i don't i haven't paid that much attention in the last few weeks and so i'm gonna look a little bit closer to see whether you know is he just is he making really big numbers and then playing decent golf or is he like every you know he's making bad bad scores throughout all of his rounds throughout all of his nines right um and is it is there any sort of pattern to it like i mean his putting this you're essentially losing 10 strokes to the field when you get that kind of putting number um but then the question is what happens to the other 15 strokes that he lost to the field last week yeah i mean at least corey connors he might have put it that bad but at least he was positive ball striking yeah okay should we recap our picks yeah let me make sure i got mine in uh what did i say dj yeah dj palmer was your sleeper did you guys you have your sleeper what was kevin sleeper so kevin jt to win his sleeper and i told him he could get away with this maybe sure enough but his sleeper is tony fina we'll call it a sleeper to win the tournament and yeah we'll make fun of him in front of him on the plot after and his fate was harris english who actually both you and i i think are positive on this week okay my picture so i have i have dj and i'm fading patrick reed and i am taking palmer yep so i got rom for back to back weeks he's my pick to win sleeper i'm going cameron champ as a dfs played and move up i would love to see a top 20 top 15 uh from where he is and my fate is sung jm just because he's burned me for so many weeks in a row i wanted him to i understand the contrarian play but i want him to i wanted to prove something to me you just think that once he realizes you faded him that he's really going to be motivated to turn that around i know he's a big he's a big listener i like it um i also like it because i want him to turn it around and so if you pick him as a fader it'll be all the sweeter when he when he does well this week oh that would be bitter all right okay should we wrap her up yeah uh thanks everyone for joining us in the grandsons you can check out the model that craig and i went through yourselves and kind of click through everything and sort it how you want to sort it at grandsongolf.com make sure to follow us on twitter at grandson golf please like subscribe raider content our podcast uh we'll throw this up on youtube later follow us on twitter craig where can they find you uh you can find me at grandstandcraig and um i think we will i guess there's no cut this week so i don't know whether we'll be doing a cut sweat show probably not do something creative we'll do something on well it's a monday finish so maybe we'll figure it out anyways follow us on twitter and we'll uh we'll tweet something out uh you can follow me at adam bapti and yeah thank you for joining us and good luck this week and let's go uh cheer hard for rory to have his kid before the weekend and then maybe we can get him into some lineups yeah there you go all right see everybody all right take you