2024 Travers Stakes Preview - The Professor's Whiteboard

[Music] hi everyone Matthew to Sis here with nirra bed I'm here with the professor's whiteboard for the today's Travers and listen we had to flip it around to get all this information on but it's going to be an amazing day and if you want to check out my short and whiteboard make sure to head over to X and you can get it there on my handle at fail Dem menz or on Nets at nets but it's a big day for the Travers and let's talk about the feature race eight horses it's the right eight horses and it is a thrilling I think you can make a legitimate case for every single horse in this race let's start as we always do with the pace scenario is it going to be cold is it gonna be hot I think it's gonna be really hot now everybody's gonna point to Doro okay they're gonna listen he's the horse that needs to lead he's got that seven post he's gonna break he's going to try to cross and clear most of the field get down to the rail for that first turn you're absolutely right okay he's a different type of horse when he's on the lead he needs to be on the lead when he's sitting third or fourth not effective when you put him in front he is a tough customer to get by he's a stubborn horse he's a frustrating horse to bet against in a lot of ways because he keeps fighting back so he's a tough one to get on the lead so he's gonna go there all right Louis s the jockey he's sending all right now here's the thing you got torpedo Anna you got the Philly and let me just say she belongs in this race Kendy Peak has her ready she is physically so much more developed than the other Phillies that are three years old that we saw last week in the Alabama and when I saw her on Sunday in The Paddock schooling the muscles are Rippling the ears are perked she's looking around she's posing for every single person taking a picture she's ready for this race he's got her cranked up that last workout 59 and four under a tight strangle hold she's ready to go but she's got good early speed too I don't think Brian Hernandez Jr is going to try to get to the front I think he's GNA try to sit that kind of rocket trip on the inside rail save all the ground just like he did On Mystic Dan in the Kentucky Derby so I think that's what he's going to do and I think with oredo Anna she's got a shot she's a legitimate horse in this race she's a legitimate Contender yes the speed figures need to get a little bit faster you could say the same thing about unmatched wisdom fatten down corporate power honor Marie you can say the same thing about those and she's really only a couple of points from a buyer speed figure standpoint behind the main contenders and here's the thing she's rarely and in fact never being asked for everything Brian Hernandez Jr hits her one time at the top of the stretch usually or mid stretch she responds and see you later she's not being asked to go all out you know who is fierceness and Sierra Leon and Doro they're always being asked to go all out in their races so I'm not surprised they have a higher speed figure she's winning wrapped up there's a difference there now let's talk about fierceness murial and Matic he is you know a riddle what is it a riddle wrapped in an enigma he is just a difficult horse to figure out because he's got great early speed he's got the perfect perfect post position he's got ideal post far outside and he's gonna be able to track dorno okay Johnny Velasquez aboard fierceness he's gonna go out of the gate he wants dor to probably go pretty well too so Dorn's going to go Johnny B on Fier is going to sit second he's gonna just stalk and he's going to be right off fierce's flank that is a very similar trip to what fierceness had in the Breeders Cup juvenal last year at Santa Anita where he won going away by six and a half PLS that's the trip okay I think Fier gets the trip now if he has a problem at the gate good Lord if another horse crosses in front of him somehow forget about it all blits are off because the horse packs it in the second he encounters it Unity but he should get the right trip the problem is I don't think he wants any part of a mile and a quarter I just don't think that's the way he's built when you see him physically he does not strike you as a horse at Once a mile and a quarter his pedigree doesn't necessarily scream a mile in a quarter I think he's closer to this generation's life is good in terms of a course that could be very good at a mile and maybe at Max nine furong but he also I think needs a little bit of time to recover in between races particularly more grueling races races where he's pressed now that last race in the gimm Dandy wasn't necessarily grueling it was kind of a picture perfect race for him but I still think it's kind of interesting another major Pace presence batten down junior Alvarado is aboard and this horse is fascinating and I say that because a lot of people say oh fierceness sier Leon they're just gonna go fierceness and door they're just going to go up front and it's going to be the two of them don't forget about baton down baton Down's got one to win this race he's only ever won races one way and that is to go up front and to go fast and he can go fast you go back and look at those fractions in the Ohio Derby he was running fast for no reason at all nobody was pressing him he just opened up six lengths on the field he can go fast Junior alvado won the Whitney two weeks ago on Arthur's ride how gun it out of the gate get to the front never look back I think baton down sends and I think he sends hard and there's something to be said if you go well door knock and fierceness are just naturally faster sure I agree with that there is intentionality I think that's something you cannot underrate somebody like Junior Alvarado knows he's got to go from a little bit more of an inside position and he's gonna have that inside position so if he can get over to the rail up front ahead of dorok it suddenly puts Doro in a little bit of an uncomfortable position though he won stalking in the Bellmont stakes and it really forces fierceness into a tough spot do you go three wide or do you actually tuck in behind horses because if he tucks in behind horses it's over because that's not what Fist likes to do now another horse that's going to be part of the early Pace scenario is unmatched wisdom the other Chad Brown horse we're going to get to the main Chad Brown horse in a second but unmatched wisdom in his own right absolutely deserves to be in this race the winner of the kurlin he's a fascinating horse in that he's not run his best race yet I think he's progressively gotten better every single start more impressive now the mile and a quarter I'm not necessarily soan he also has to show me a new way to win yes he has won sitting second briefly in a race and so he can rate he doesn't need the lead the way that of course like baton down does the way like dorok and ferson probably do in terms of needing a certain exact position but he needs to show because I don't think he's faster than Doro I don't think he's faster than Fus I don't think he's faster than baton down I don't know if he's even faster than torpedo Anna so he's got to be comfortable sitting like fourth or fifth in this race he's not shown that yet now maybe he can do it he likes to train at a Target according to Chad Brown so maybe he can't do that but that's gonna be a new thing for him to sit fourth and fifth maybe between horses getting Kickback from horses this is all going to be new for him on Saturday so that's an important point to bring up there's a lot of talent there 8 to one in the morning line good value I know my colleague Andy Sterling really likes him I know my friend David aragona Daily Racing Form really likes him I I get it I don't know if we're going to get 8 to one actually because I think he's a little bit of a wise guy horse now and so I think that price goes down and I tend to be wary of wise guy horses because they rarely ever win but um there's definitely Talent there no doubt about it but he's got do it a new way he's got to show that he can sit take Kickback and sit between horses not sit the most comfortable trip and still win it then you got sir Leo I mean listen all of this pace that I talked about Anna and unmatched wisdom and dooro Fier and bat down it all sets up for the closer right you're going fast and you're going a mile and a quarter we saw what happened in the Kentucky Derby he was able to close despite having to go eight n wide weaving all over the place down the stretch banging into Forever Young he still managed to almost win that race it seemed like Fay and Pratt got him straightened out a little bit more in the jimm Dandy I was a little disappointed he didn't win that race I thought that was actually a little bit of a disappointing effort from him despite finishing second is he tacitus is he xanden is he a type of horse that always runs well but doesn't win the big race or is he maybe like I don't know an epicenter a horse that was very good and very consistent and kind of then won the Travers now to be fair epicenter won the Jim Dandy as well but it was one of those things where I think there's a there's a legitimate question what type of horse is Sierra Leone but it sets up so well for him in this race he's going to be coming from off the pace the mile and a quarter shouldn't be an issue this is the race he was Brad to one this is a pace setup that means that he can win I really love him in this spot now horse that I also really love and don't be fooled by me having them all the way down here I almost got to get down and like pose it you guys now listen a horse like corporate power for Su mcy first of all I freaking love Su Mahi he's a phenomenal trainer I trust his horses he puts them in the right spots so often theah with this horse I think this horse gets the right trip I just think this horse trips out as the kids say he is a course that finished second in that kin to unmatched wisdom I he still needed to deal with some maturity he was all over the place a little bit in a stretch if he' straightened out I think maybe there's a chance he actually beats him in that race Corp power is going to sit a mid pack trip actually lik sitting mid pack doesn't necessarily want to be on the lead does it is not a deep closer though either so in a way that sier Leon or another horse we'll talk about in a second honor Marie they might be 10 lengths back corporate power is going to be five lengths back maybe he's going to get first crack at the front front kind of quintet of speed horses and if they start getting wey he's the one who's actually GNA benefit he's going to be the one that's going to get the first crack at 15 to1 in the morning line I really like his prices son of kurling can run all day I think this is good value I have him second in terms of my picks I think he's sitting on a big race sh M he does not put horses in grade One races unless he thinks they can compete I really like this one quite a bit just such a typical Su horse so well campaigned well managed and now taking the Big Shot The Big Race I think he gets the right setup behind that pace but not so far back that he has a lot to do coming for home now let's talk about the final horse down here honor Marie who I jokingly say sier Leon light okay because that's kind of what he is right he's a deep closer but he's not as dynamic as sier Leone he's a little bit more of a grinder he's not somebody who you know it flashes off the page he also hasn't won since he was two years old in the Kentucky Jockey Club oh by the way that race came back I mean just not a lot of good re hor coming out of that race not a lot of next out winners all not a lot of winners coming out of that race period so you do wonder about the quality of horses he's faced did finish second to catching freedom in the Louisiana Derby I don't know how good the rest of that field was but I do think that's something that's noteworthy now he's getting the blinkers put on for trainer Whit Beckman I think that's interesting we'll see where he ends up sitting because like I said he's a grinder the only way he out finish is Si Leon is if he either a sits closer to the PACE or B starts to get the jump and makes a move first because he's not as dynamic as SI Leon so if they both start getting underway at the same time SI Leon's gonna outf finish him every single time and twice on Sunday but it's Saturday not Sunday so anyway honor Marie though I think the blinkers could keep that horse a little bit closer maybe a little bit more engaged this horse has had some tough trips I know my friend Sarah elbwi kind of likes this horse as a top pick and as a little bit of a long shot play I I respect that position I think maybe there is some upside with the horse like honor Marie honestly he's the horse that I'm probably most worried about that I'm not going to include on my tickets because I do think there's an outside chance this race sets up for him that grinding style at a mile and a quarter tends to work pretty well actually so listen it's gonna be a hell of a race it's gonna be a hell of a day we're not if I was doing this whiteboard of the a challenge Jerkins I'd need two or three of these because that's going to be a phenomenal race can't wait for it where am I ultimately going Sierra Le this is the race this is the race he was bred to win this is the race he set up to win and I'm going to go to sier Leone as my top pick corporate power underneath in the xacta make sure to check it out and play on naira bets remember kids stay in school and class this Miss