with 58 days left until election day 2024 thousands upon thousands of people are voting for who is going to win and betting millions of dollars on who is going to win the 2024 election currently it is pretty tight Donald Trump has a 51 percentage percentage chance of winning the election while Cala Harris has a 47% chance this has gone back and forth ever since Joe Biden's Dropout and at some points Harris had been leading by around 10% points Max while Donald Trump has retaken the lead and has gone up and down by a little bit but is ahead held steady right around above 50% while Camala Harris has held steady at around 45 to 50% meanwhile the swing states have been more crucial in determining who will win the presidential election with right now the map being pretty close Donald Trump does lead on average and most of these swing states by a narrow amount others by larger amounts Camala Harris does still have a lead over Wisconsin and Michigan due to more favorable polling com out coming out of those two states in contrast to a lot of these other states that are more darker red on this shade of map down here we can see some other cool infographics and some cool betting odds we see here there's a 34% chance that Republicans do sweep all three chambers 21% chance Democrats do and right now Republicans are favored in the presidency and in the Senate while Democrats are favored in the house of of Representatives but this video isn't going to be about just that this video is going to be about filling up this 2024 map based on these percentage chances on each candidate winning a particular State now the way I will be doing this is I will be Distributing the 85% chance and over for any candidate as safe the 75% chance or higher as likely the 60 to 75% chance being lean and then 50 to 60 will be considered tilt on this map so let's get started with the safe States for each candidate for Cala Harris she'll have the usual Washington Oregon California we'll also be having the states of Colorado and New Mexico on those map on this map so let's fill out those Western States for her we will be adding the state of Hawaii we will also be adding the state of Minnesota which does have a 92% chance of going for Camala Harris as well as the state of Illinois she is going to be up to 122 now and let's go up to the Northeast we're going to have States like Maryland and Delaware New Jersey New York all of these states up in the Northeast and New England going into her column and then the state of Maine will also be barely going into that column so we'll be filling out all of these states in that safe column for her including Main's first and Maine at large because it is a pretty pretty sure thing that she will win this state of Maine and she'll be at 208 with all those safe States in her column Donald Trump will also be winning a lot of quite a few safe States in his column as well it'll include Alaska and all of the states up in the Mountain West coming down to Oklahoma so all those States on our map will be filled in in that safe column for him apart from Nebraska second it will be including all the states in the Deep South except Georgia and North Carolina this would include the state of Texas which has which has an 86% chance of going for Trump and the State of Florida which also has an 85% chance of going for Trump also two states Iowa and Ohio both have over a 90% chance of going for the former president so they will both be going in that safe column for him and this is going to be bringing us back to that competitive map that we're all quite used to Trump is at 218 and then Harris is at 208 the likely column will not be encompassing too many states however there are a couple to go over to begin with the state of New Hampshire has an 83% Point chance of going for Camala Harris so that will be going in that likely column for her the state of Virginia which I had forgot does per does actually go into that safe column so this will be actually going into that safe column for her there is not going to be any other states going into the likely column apart from these two districts in Main's second district Trump has an 81% chance of winning the district and then vice versa in Nebraska second district Kamala Harris has an 81% chance for those to go in her column so both of these will go in the likely column for each respected candidate and this will bring the total to 226 and 219 the rest of these states will be going in either that lean or tilt column and this is a map you're very familiar with because this is in fact the top seven most competitive States and it's very very evident that most people are very sure that Most states will go either way I mean most of these states are in that 85 more like 80 90% chance of going for either candidate so most people are betting on the on these final seven states and and in which these final seven states will end up deciding the election so we're going to go west to east instead of going the other way around where we do lean and then tilt and beginning with Nevada Nevada is labeled in that toss-up map Trump does have a 54 to 46% chance of winning that is a narrow lead and this will put that in the Tilt column for the former president a very good state for him to win not one that he necessarily needs because it's only six electoral votes but one that will translate uh very good results in the next state which should be the State of Arizona right now in Arizona he does lead by a considerable 64 to 36% chance of winning and I agree with this because Arizona is one of those states where we have been seeing some favorable POS plls for Donald Trump for example on Real Clear Politics he does have the largest lead of any swing state he leads by one 1.6 in 2020 he had been losing it by five he only he only end up losing it by around 2. 3ish so he's overperforming a lot since you know the past four years and this you know would put the state in the lean call of him based on these betting odds where people are much more sure that he is going to win the State of Arizona than the state of Nevada but you know once again these markets are very versatile and they can change very very quickly yeah for example Donald Trump had gained bit from yesterday because there had been a new New York Times Sienna poll that has had Trump up by one actually so New York Times and Sienna pretty favorable towards Democrats having it by having him up by one nationally is a pretty good thing for him and that definitely has triggered those markets to swing a little bit in his favor but anyways down to the state of Georgia Georgia has a 59% chance of going for Trump so people are not as confident in Georgia going for Trump than the State of Arizona but however this is still a good margin for him just shy of being in that lean column it will put that in that tilt column for the former president and Georgia is one of those states that has been trending pretty heavily towards the left over the past decade or so the polls are very neck and neck and due to those uh recent Trends it is going to be a lot closer than it used to be it's not the Republican state mainly because of the Atlanta suburbs and that whole metro area but this time around it does seem that people are more confident in Trump winning the state than Harris a similar story with the state of North Carolina however it is a little more favorable the exact same margin as Arizona matter of fact where people believe Trump has a 64% chance of winning while Camala Harris does have a 36% chance of winning which would put the state in the lean column for the former president and the polls do support that he does also lead by a consistent almost 1 percentage point in the polls the last four had him up by around one each so this is uh very consistent to the polls that have him leading and this is one big reason why people do give him around a 2 to1 margin of winning the state of North Carolina and now we are back to these rustbelt states the states of Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconsin but before we complete this map please subscribe please like the video comment down all your suggestions in the section below and please also check out other of my content on my channel thank you guys so much for watching and let's return now let's start with the state of Pennsylvania in the state of Pennsylvania it is a pure tssa but Trump has built up a 10-point lead up in the following week or so where he does lead 55 to 45% chance of winning the state and I'd say the main reason why he is leading by this amount is because the polls in Pennsylvania have been a lot closer than in the polls in Wisconsin and Michigan and remember in the polls in Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania the Democrats are usually overestimated estimated by quite considerable amounts taking into consideration these past uh results here are a lot more narrow than the polls that hadam and right now Trump is up by actually it's a complete tie Trump has been up in the last poll you know other you know besides this tie but either way uh this has also LED people to understand that since Democrats are usually overestimated mostly uh in these three states but Pennsylvania since is the closest and he does has built up a 10-point lead and I do agree with that I do think he has you know a higher chance of winning but this would put it in the Tilt column for him and he has officially won the election 287 to 226 right now and these two states would not matter as long as Trump won the state of Pennsylvania as well as also you know Georgia and North Carolina but to cap off this we have Michigan and Wisconsin which both have a 56 to 44% chances of going for Harris now uh they both have the same margin the state of Michigan was a lot more favorable towards Harris which she had led by similar margins to Trump and North Carolina but now that polls have come in that have it a little more closer her lead has shrunken all the way down to around one point the same thing in Wisconsin Wisconsin does seem the most favorable for her in the polls however we all are accustomed to those polls in the state of of Wisconsin where we're very used to Democrats leading by huge margins while the end of result ends up being around a one point margin in either way but either way uh this is going to be the margins the chances of her winning in these two states both of them would put her in a tilt column of winning these two states and that would be the final map based on these poly Market odds based on the markets and some say the markets are more uh accurate than the polls uh I would agree to disagree uh some could say that some would not the one reason why they could be more accurate is because there a lot more people involved with the betting ODS rather than these polls as we can see these samples and polls are very small in comparison to the general public while if we check these betting odds there are a lot of money we have hundreds of millions of dollars being bet into who would win the election so uh this would definitely be something to take a look at this is something that definitely matters I think in the election itself because this is what people are thinking and this is probably what people are going to be voting for as well well especially if they believe their candidates going to win but either way this is going to be our final map 287 to 251 thank you guys so much for watching please like And subscribe to my channel put our comments down in the section below and I'll check you guys out in the next one