Mind Your Banners: Forecasting the 2024 IU football season

hey folks z a from here I Insider Indianapolis Star it is Monday August 26 2024 it is gameweek 2024 season is upon us he is Mike NIS from the Bloomington times as I said I'm Zach Osterman uh from the Indianapolis Star this is mind your banners obviously the first minder banners of the new season Mike we're GNA start with the biggest picture possible I'm dropping this on you now you said you hadn't seen it yet I want your live reaction to the tiebreaking procedures for the 2024 discover Big 10 championship game are you ready I am ready all right I'm gonna read these to you as it stands if two teams are tied in the Big 10 standings conference games only the following steps will be taken until a determination is made number one the tied teams will be compared based on the head-to-head matchup if if applicable during the regular season number two tied teams will be compared based on record against all common conference opponents simple so far number three tight teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best Conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings which obviously will confuse someone but it more or less makes sense number four tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of All Conference opponents how could we possibly need to go past four but we keep going number five the representative will be chosen by the highest ranking by Sports Source analytics team rating score metric following the regular season that's five here's the here's the PS the resistance number six the representative will be chosen by random draw among the tied teams conducted by commissioner or designate so here's my question they're leaving it they're leaving it open for not just one draw like a single draw it's like multiple teams in the Hat yeah so like okay here's some important questions number one where's the draw held is this a Friday night scenario where they all meet at a truck stop somewhere in West Texas or like is it is it is it at the Big 10 office do they go to Lucas Oil Stadium number two it says conducted by commissioner or designate design yeah so could we get a celebrity situation here pull like like the the 2024 discover bigon championship game Draw featuring Billy Baldwin like could could that happen I I think it's very possible so what's the analytic company I don't know I've never heard of them that and and honestly like that that shocked me until I got to number six I was just like I I kind of need this to happen like I need the Big 10 championship game to be decided and we'll get like you know we'll get like the Bill Simmons it was a Bill Simmons who said the the Frozen envelopes was he the one that came up with the the Frozen draft envelope but this analytic company do they have their own private ranking like does the Big 10 keep track like is it their data firm that they're keeping track of the rankings they what if they're the what if they're the design that's true um very strange deep lot of options I mean I'm just trying to imagine that just the chaos scenarios that would get us to five and six and I'm trying to imagine getting to five and Sport Source analytics coming back and saying sorry we just with 14 calculated we calculated pi to 14 decimals and we just can't separate these these three teams all right let's talk about IU football we talked to Kurt cetti today his first gameweek press conference of uh the 2024 season you know not insanely revelatory I thought there were some interesting things he talked about you know I asked him about sort of his thought process around handling red shirts and he basically just came out and said with all the experienced transfers we have I don't think freshman are gonna play you worded that I think you worded that differently what you didn't say the word red you just said will freshman have an opportunity to play well no no I said how do you handle the red shirt question because of the like there's Co because coaches will look at it like some guys just won't red shirt some guys they'll play four games some guys they'll play them a couple games and see if they want to keep them playing or if they're just gonna I thought I thought you I didn't hear you say red shirt because I just thought you asked will there be opportunities for freshman no I was I was asking about the red shirt either way he took it in heed just said was like no there's no yeah he was just like we have a lot of experienced transfers so I don't really anticipate many freshman plane um it seems like broadly speaking Indiana's got I don't say a clean bill of health but they're they're pretty healthy which is not an enormous surprise based on kind of what we what we were seeing and hearing out a fall Camp um any other big takeaways for you from today uh not particularly I I mean I'm always interested it's sort of like inside baseball but just the organization I asked who's going to be uh in the booth and who would be on the field Shanahan I think he said traditionally was in the booth and Bryant Hayes was on the field but he said that might change uh for this season um and he said he knew the answer but he wouldn't give the answer which I found funny um and then um you know guards sounds like you know it's those three I mean I I think the position that's sort of the most open on the team to be honest is that guard spot um where you have Drew Evans Bray Lynch and Taylor Stevens sort of competing for playing time um and it's you know those guys are still you know who wouldn't announce who the two starters were but that's sort of like probably the most open competition spot that they have on the roster to be honest I I don't maybe like R let's let's do this then let's do this let's let's go position by position quarterback Curtis Rook running back I mean I it's just a Triumph it's a it's a or it's three it's three to four it's the transfers it's the two JMU transfers plus Ellis maybe Elijah green here's what I would list it as I would list Justice Ellison or kayin black and Ty all laon is your third down P essentially I think that yeah I think that's fair obviously I think Elijah seret starts at one receiver my sense is probably Donovan McCully at the other boundry and then price in the slot you think price the Texas Tech transfer not cross the Ohio transfer Um Zack Horton at tight end right Smith and weding the tackles had the center I think you're right that like I'm not even sure it matters a ton who starts because the other thing is we've talked about this like Stevens Stevens can basically play any position so I'm betting he kind of will like I wouldn't be shocked if you get out of a game and find it yeah they and they could roll like they could wait you know Evans and Lynch don't have any experience really they could get the start Stevens could rotate on basically either side to S see what the best combination is and honestly like once they get through week one two they could really play with it and kind of see I mean they're going to have a huge advantage against Western Illinois and just kind of see what lineup combinations work um you know really mix and match if they wanted to so then on defense your ends are Kamara and Mangum Ferrar your tackles are you don't think it's Mangum Ferrar I would probably say Lenell Carr okay I mean I I would say Mangum Ferrar but again that's another one of those positions where I think you're going to rotate a and like you you should rotate a decent amount of I mean Edge rusher the point is you need to be fresh and explosive your tackles will be CJ West and James Carpenter your two linebackers will probably be Walker and Fischer with I think Isaiah Jones behind them one Corner's pwns the other corner is probably Jamir Johnson I think Corner um you know the safety question is is where you put Amari Ferrell because we he kind of can do both like he can play at the back end he can also roll up to that sort of nickel position I I I I tend to think that he'll play next to Josh sanguinetti at the back end at safety do you disagree uh yeah I think they'll have um uh why am I blanking on his name uh Sean Asbury in the back end okay with with sanguinetti andell and then Ferell that sort of yeah um and then we'll kind of see uh you know we saw them rep some 43 you know stuff and we saw him rep some extra even extra defensive back stuff I I'm just kind of curious how that secondary looks with that you know how often do they have the the box safety sort of in the lineup um uh you know the backup in the spring there was Terry Jones the other ODU transfer um so they got some options and then how much do they rotate the corners I think is another kind of interesting question um you know do they I I mean I would assume uh with pawns that they leave him in there a pretty substantial amount of stats but how you know Jamari sharp was at the first team in the spring game you know does he and jir Johnson sort of rotate through or is it is is jir Johnson kind of etched himself you know put himself ahead of the game there so I think the secondary is probably the other place where you're kind of looking at maybe as sort of the most maybe more in flux uh you know with the offensive line of guard um the two open spots on the team probably all right you wanted I'm not going to make you pick a kicker because we I don't I mean I don't know if you've even watched kickers this like I haven't seen either they didn't they didn't they didn't kick a single field goal during open uh yeah so I'm not gonna obviously and obviously James Evans will be uh will be the bunner we know that um you want to talk about bold predictions bold B preds bold bold predictions we'll leave that for later in the season uh bold predictions b d uh I have not filed mine yet I know you've got some that I like I I might even I might even pick you back on your 2,000 yard receivers uh prediction just because I I like Curtis rook and I like what this offense kind of can put on the field um but kind of throw me throw me your throw me your boldest of your bold predictions well I guess that's a toss up because I I don't know which should call I think so you mentioned the first one would be two 10,000 yard receivers I don't think that's all that bu I think they've got the talent and I think they've got sort of the depth there to make it so teams can't really focus on one guy so mcau s breakout years or I mean s continues his kind of he had a breakout year last year but mccullay obviously takes his game to another level but Curtis roor uh breaks the Indiana single season um passing yards Mark and the career uh touchdowns Mark I have the records right here Nate sudfeld in 2015 threw for 3,5 573 yards and Kellen Lewis in 20 2007 threw for 28 touchdowns um so I think R Beats both of those and then my other the you know boldest would be not that they make the bow that they make a bow game and win uh and end their what is it 33 years three decade streak three decade 91 was the the 91 copper bowl was the last the last bowl game they won 33 years ongoing streak um and my reing was you know I think they've got three gimme wins essentially you're looking for three wins on the schedule so making a bow I don't think is all that buold of a prediction but I do think that if they make a bowl game they're in a good spot in terms of players opting in I feel like I think that s s cetti with a lot of these JMU guys there's a lot of loyalty there he's brought them up a level uh and they do seem to genuinely want to set him up for Success here and I think that motivation you've seen kind of Bull games fall off I feel like the quality of games has not been what it once was you know that the buying isn't there but I do think this team will care and try to get that win try to end the streak and try to be a notable team in IU history and I think that would put them in a in a um you know I think that would make a make a splash um and and I think they'd want to win it for him so those are my my three and I think the second two are my boldest uh but although I think you're so I think you're I think your boldest is the thousand- yard receiver one and the reason why and I double checked this to make sure before I I I said this out loud on the record uh Indiana only has 7,000 yard seasons ever it has never had 2,000 yard receivers in the same season this is not a program that's been shy about throwing the football not necessarily 2019 was the last one was it [ __ ] is that his W fure yeah yeah you don't you don't know W filer I did not no his name his first name is D'Angelo but when he was a kid he loved going to Burger King so his dad started calling him Whopper that's a great but they shortened it to [ __ ] yeah they shortened it to W that's even better yeah yeah purposely try to get him a thousand yards because he had a thous two no he he was injured for a period of that season he missed a couple games with I think a concussion so I mean like they he was he had he had a couple games that year he was really good there was he was Central to the game the Michigan State game they lost uh where Michael pennick set the record for consecutive program record for consecutive completions he completed 20 passes in a row and then the the 10000 yard receiver before that also had a good name simmi Simmy cobs he was on that now so he was on the sudfeld team that set the single season passing record with Ricky Jones and they almost had two th yes they did they almost had two and they did have 2,000 yard rushers that team was the first Big 10 team in 20 years since Eddie George's Ohio State to have a 3,000 yard passer 2,000 yard rushers and a thousand yard receiver that was how good that Jord Howard did in only nine games that's pretty impressive he had a yeah well he was he was a so he transferred in from we're just going down memory lane here he transferred in from UAB he he was like a casualty of UAB shutting down football yeah and and he came up to Indiana he played the one year he ran through an ankle injury for a lot of the season and obviously he's not still in the NFL he's only recently fallen out of the NFL but um anyway that that is why I think that is your your boldest prediction is just because you would I mean you would increase by two a list that is only seven total thousand yard receiving seasons and I I mean you JM you did it last year so Sun Belt feels like a conference that's built more for that than although the one thing I would say is Indiana doesn't play a lot of the teams that would slow the game down your Wisconsin's your your Iowa you know Indiana's probably going to play some games where the other team's going to try and get it try and turn it into a bit of a shootout too um the B I mean the bull win prediction I think is just I broadly agree with you about opt outs um you know it's it's it's hard for me to just sort of Peg like I generally think Indiana is going to a bowl as well um the the difficult thing for me is the bll field is kind of muddied by the fact that like the Pack 12 schools aren't going to fulfill their bowls this year but are going to next year or something like I thought it was this year they are I thought it was they are well I thought it was I thought it was next year but either way the point is maybe it is this year but then that means you've got like you you you've got all of these sort of like bouncing balls of what's gonna happen when you know like our big 12 school the Pack 12 teams are in the next two years still tied to their old Bulls the next two years okay so like are the Big 10 and the Big 12 going to be fighting over Bulls like just how is this going to work because if the Big 10 winds up in a situation I mean the big 10 I'll Google it while we're talking um I know that like there's bowls to fill since you know things have have fallen down but um oh turn off my ad blocker just load the dang website good Lord um the Big 10 right now if we you know set aside if we set aside the playoff the Big T's only got seven Bowl um Bowl TI now I think you can reasonably assume the Big 10 will get at least two teams in the playoff maybe three so that gets you yeah but they have the other they have three the like the three emergency bowl games too that's true that like the what like the Texas Bowl in that one of them and these the union mortgage Home Mortgage gas barill Bowl the 76 Birmingham bowl and the serve pro first resp B Bowl have you ever you've covered the Birmingham Bowl haven't you not when it was the 76 Birmingham Bowl but yes I have covered the Birmingham Bowl yeah that was a memorable Birmingham that is a sad that was a sad sad bowl game um I'm trying to think because I haven't really thought too deeply I I guess I don't know if I go so far out on the limits to say I think Indiana will win a bowl game but I think and this is an important distinction because I've seen Indiana bow Seasons that didn't end this way I think Indiana will a winning record which is to say I think Indiana will win at least seven games in the regular season and they've only done that once since 2007 well I guess twice if you count to co year in a normal season a full season they've only done that once since 2007 so that kind of a bold prediction or is that just your bow prediction it's both it's a bold bow prediction all right so what are what give me two more then two more I think one is that Indiana winds up in the top three maybe the top four four it's so hard for me to adjust like to the numbers when there's 18 teams maybe top four in the conference in sacks and tackles for loss um bold that's that's mil is bold I mean you're playing in a conference with Michigan Ohio State Oregon USC I'm underwhelmed I'm underwhelmed this next one better be bold I I I think that's it I think that's all I got right now you got two so you did not do your homework no I didn't you didn't tell me this was going to be part of the podcast I was excited to read the to read the Big 10 tiebreakers that's all the work so but you know what the uh at JMU minus the covid year the average numbers for a quarterback under Kurt cetti 3,394 yards 33 touchdowns 68% completion percentage Yeah those would be like alltime you know yeah those those would all be the completion percentage would be the only one that I think wouldn't be a program record well the yards would be just shy of it but I mean it would be like in the top I think they've only had uh three quarterbacks in program history to throw for three 3,000 yards Indiana four three nope four sunel Lego Ben Chapel Kell Lewis what oh did he one do it twice what no hold on no sunel sunel did it in 15 Richard Lego did it in 16 Ben Chapel did it in 2010 Kellen Lewis did it in 2007 so there you go I just miscount I guess yeah look at that look at look at who did look dude didn't do their homework correctly I guess I didn't um I believe oh it because Ben Chapel had 2,941 yards in 2009 in 2010 he had 3,295 why didn't he show up on this list because I don't know because you made a bad list uh completion yeah single season completion percentage Michael pennick 68.8% that I mean I don't know if we count that he only had 160 attempts that was 19 when he got hurt Payton Ramsay that same season on 300 attempts completed 68% of his passes so like that those numbers would all fall right in the sort of like greatest single passing performance single season passing performance in program history and I don't think it's like that unreasonable not just because of the talent that you've added if you're Indiana but also because you know frankly like there is an established track record of cetti and his staff having this kind of offensive success with transfers with transfer quarterbacks with transfer receivers Elijah seret was a transfer receiver last season at James Madison the only question is just you know group of five conferences tend to be a little bit more open offensively you know you tend to not have quite as much just like yeah I mean Reas I mean they get the they could really pad their stats in those three nonconference games so that kind of helps that's true so I mean you can get to easily get to 10 touchdowns and like 900 yards right there um and so I mean I I think you do have to look at the schedule um and kind of take that into account that they can you know especially if they play most of those games that would be a real um uh you know Head Start to reach those records but you you need to do some workshopping on these bullet predictions this well you need to get your facts right I looked your predictions are so bold they're they're based they're based on fantasy we need to get a there absolutely no respect for Bloomington Bloomington South's own a Native Son Ben Chapel they don't have printed media guys no respect I can tell you don't live I can tell that you live somewhere that that that that that doesn't like South like fire you know what that's fine I'm firing our my research Department the researcher is gone um do you want to just do a little game by game I think we said we finished with that yeah we could do game by I hav I what I was gonna do today or tomorrow after all the coaches kind of talk to see all the all the coaches all the one coach that we talked to this week no no all the rest of the Big 10 you know sure where the quarterback battles lie because I haven't I mean I know Ohio State Michigan State have all named starters I don't know what's going on Northwestern I don't know what's going on with UCLA in terms of like their quarterback situations Michigan hasn't named one yet uh yeah Michigan so there was a lot of uncertainty there um you know I think we could maybe speak broadly like what up give me an upset win that you think that they're gonna biggest win on this biggest win on the schedule that's T because like I don't the whole point is the schedule's potentially so easy um I so obviously an upset over Michigan and Ohio will be above everything else is the next tier Washington because they were playoff team last year and Nebraska because they are sort of yeah considered on the upswing or is there a team in that like is there any team that's a better win out out out of the two that are obvious I I don't know if there's like one on paper right now like I mean just just because right the schedule develops yeah but it might well what I mean is I don't know that there's one that I can sit here and say like I think that's a real like a honestly the one my mind jumped to is Purdue just because I'm I don't know the last Indiana Coach that beat Purdue their first time around and I understand that Purdue is not expected to do that much you know that game does tend to be kind of a marker for modern like you know you have to go back to like Bill mallerie for there to be Seasons where Indiana lost to Purdue but otherwise the season was was pretty successful like they they they beat Purdue in 07 that was kind of the icing on that cake they had to beat Purdue in 15 and 16 to go um into to actually make Bowls because they were five and six going into both of those games they had to like they didn't have to beat Purdue in 19 they were seven and four but Purdue was like four- seven or three and and so it would have felt like very deflating I think to get to seven and two and then lose their last three two of them were at Penn State Michigan you can take that but if you Capp that off by losing to a a four- win Purdue team it would have felt a little bit like oh well this season seemed like it was going in a real Direction and then it didn't wind up that way like I put it this way if you told me right like if you guaranteed me right now that Indiana was gonna go three and0 in the non-conference and beat Purdue and those might be you know four of the on paper Indiana's like five easiest games but if you told me that right now I'd tell you I think Indiana makes a a bowl game comfortably just because like the the complexion of Indiana successful Indiana football seasons has tended to rely upon a successful bucket game for Indiana if that makes sense so produ the so the most meaningful win on a schedule outside of Michigan Ohio State would be Purdue for you I'd also be curious about Michigan State cuz I like Jonathan Smith as a coach and I know they took a ton of transfers and it may take them a while and obviously things have not really been right there for a while sort of you know the the end of dantonio's you know tenure and then kind of what came after that but that's also a trophy game um so you're picking rivalry games this is that's I mean that's because there's so much you don't know listen I people I talk to around Nebraska football think Dylan Rola is the absolute real deal but he's a true freshman quarterback like you you you have to see that to believe it and it's not like he's a true freshman quarterback that's taken over a program that's you know on a run of four straight nine win Seasons like you know Nebraska's putting a lot on his shoulders you're right Washington was in the playoff last year but like we both were kind of like marveling at how much Washington had turned over when Jed fish was up there at media day talking about we have 40 whatever new players and we only have one returning starter and the whole staff's new and everything's new like they just in the whole point is like this is this is why people believe in Indiana as a possibility this year is that the schedule is in as of right now and we'll see where it goes but as of right now the schedule's in incredibly forgiving all right here's another here's another schedule question how important is the UCLA game yeah I think it's I think it's top three and obviously we have to presume that they win those first two if they don't win those first two then the rest if they if they lose one of those first two sign is going to have some to talk was way out of some some you know yeah no that's not gonna be it's not any good I think it is it is top three among most important you know Purdue is always going to be in the top three most important games because it's your rivalry game we can debate what the third is but I think I I do think people are maybe taking it for granted a little too much that UCLA game like there's such a like oh we're going to the Rose Bowl and nobody ever goes to you you anticipate some fans are withholding their enthusiasm until a big until something no and that's why that's why I think the UCLA game is being taken a little bit for granted is because I I I think almost there's not enough respect being paid to the idea that that's going to be a challenging game and that Indiana's gonna have to go maybe it's not maybe maybe Indiana wins 41 to 10 I don't know but I just I just think like I think there is an extent to which at least as I have perceived and this is anecdotal when I'm talking to like people I know you know fans friends who are fans whatever I just I just kind of get the sense that there's almost sort of this like there's this assumption that Indiana will win at least one of those first two big 10 games UCLA or Maryland and I think they will win one of the two but I don't think a team that's won three big 10 games in the last three seasons and has a brand new coach and a roster that's been turned over over by more than 50% and a whole new staff bar one offensive line coach can assume anything like I think it's it's all got to be earned now what I would say is you know for all that people sort of either Marvel or chuckle at or or poke fun at signet's Bluster I do think that I I find it hard to believe Kurt cetti is is going to allow a team to buy into that if you understand what I'm saying like I I think his process well to me I don't think the Bluster like I mean maybe he could misread it but like usually a coach especially through like fall camp like knows his what he has and like I you know siget is not one's downplayed sort of expectations or sort of what his expectations are like or pump the brakes and been like oh we got some issues you know he keeps saying we have to earn it and win and you know that message has been the same but the tone of it hasn't changed where it's not like he saw his team in Fall camp and was like oh boy I've got some issues you know what I'm saying like I I don't think the I think the Bluster would have disappeared a little bit like if he doesn't believe that he's capable of getting these wins you know what I'm saying no I I agree my my point is more that I don't think a coach who's had the success that he's had doesn't have a a doesn't have a process for making sure that his players aren't getting complacent essentially the way that I think well I don't think they will I mean can't imagine that they would three games into the season with all these guys that have nothing everything to prove and maybe you know yeah that's that's kind of the other part of this too is what you lose when you have one of the many things you lose when you have an a roster that's turned over so completely is you lose you lose any sense of like what you think you might know about a player's mentality you know what I mean like like I remember that 2021 team and about halfway through that season just thinking like I just don't know if these guys have it in them to go to the well one more time when suddenly like the the job did you predict a do were your B predictions that year a downturn did you have that right I think no I well it's funny because there was a perception that like Indiana fans thought Indiana was gonna like win the Big 10 and I said that every Indiana fan I knew would just be thrilled with like another eight and Four Season just just like bowl game consolidate you know maybe finally win that bowl game seon get that streak off your back whatever like just about every Indiana fan I talked to would have been like if you know if you tell me like eight wins and we win the Music City Bowl like that's a great year you know and and then like like but I was at like big 10 media day and people were saying feel like Indiana's getting out over their skis talking about winning the Big 10 I was like I mean listen the players can have the ambition that they have I don't think that's what fans expect nobody saw two and 10 coming no nobody saw just how how hapless that team became um and obviously injuries were a big part of that but no my bul my bull prediction was not that Indiana would have four different quarterbacks injured and wind up starting Grant grimel in the bucket game uh that that did not make it on the list for me um well I guess keys I mean we don't not the to this game but just keys in general to this year I think the I mean we've talked about but the big one for me is like Health along the line of scrimmage they just don't have that like they don't have a lot of depth on either side especially with kidw injured now the flip side is if they can stay healthy they can develop some because you can take you know some of your younger players on the defensive line but offensive line too you can sprinkle them in a little bit and you can kind of control how much you expose them let them get some snaps you know let a guy play more snaps in a game like Western Illinois without asking too much of him then pull him kind of out of the line of fire for a couple weeks let him learn you know let him physically recover because it's probably a little more demanding on like a red shirt freshman than than on a junior or senior so you can develop some depth behind your most experienced players if you can stay healthy I don't think you're G to be able to develop depth if well I mean it goes about the same but I think you don't just lose depth if you have to throw some of these young players into the deep end too soon I think you also stifle their development in a lot of cases and and that's his answer was telling because I mean I think one of the spots where you're closest to having to play freshman is that offensive line yeah and when he's like there's no path the playing time I mean it shows you that he kind of doesn't think that group of uh you know because there's a group of high school sese one of them one of the kids from Indianapolis area um that are sort of next in line on that interior of the line with kidwell's injury they've got a little more depth now at tackle they've got kind of two scholarship players that aren't freshman um but the numbers lower now on the interior line so um yeah his answer was telling there that that that's that that offensive line group's not really ready for prime time which is fine I mean that's a hard position to get thrown in you know you want to have luxury being able to hold them back and um yeah I agree with you I think staying healthy on the offensive line and and and Rook I think you know look I think Tav can come in and be a capable backup but I think if you're trying to aim for the success that they want you need you need to stay healthy at quarterback which like you've mentioned 2018 was last season that the they had a healthy quarterback for all yeah yeah pyton Ramsey started all 12 in that season yeah so I mean that's a long time without uh making through a season I mean not just with one two quarterbacks playing but they've had three and four playing um a couple of those Seasons all right uh I guess let's prompt just final record what do you think they'll be seven and five or is that enough so that's regular season so I go eight and five eight and five think I'll go eight and five too we gotta we agreed so that means yeah this is concerning lack of lack of skepticism about you football um normally I'm like doesn't it feel like doesn't it feel like so you got Ohio State Michigan are losses doesn't it feel like the three losses could be like anybody except really Western Illinois but anybody in the Big 10 on the schedule those three losses could come from any any of those teams yeah like they're all coin flip games like all of them no it's I mean like they they're it feels like they're gonna just wind up stuck in like the like the this this massive middle that it feels like the big 10 is going to gear up it's going to be like Oregon Ohio State probably Michigan Pinn state you know maybe USC and then there's just G to be this huge chunk of teams that are going to be somewhere between like five and seven and eight and four like I think maybe like 10 teams that are somewhere in that range yeah and and they all kind of have similar stories they're they're all you know within like two years of the hiring of their coach they've all heavily turned over their roster in the portal they're probably all starting a transfer quarterback you know or I guess in Nebraska's case a red shirt you know or a true freshman um yeah no I mean I think it's I think that's probably Fair we'll leave it there uh we'll be back Sunday or Monday not sure which uh to review the FIU game and look ahead to next week when Indiana plays Western Illinois but between now and then the Indianapolis Star Bing Herald times he's Mike nck I'm Zach ostman thank you so much for listening we'll talk to you soon