5 PM Tropical Update: Francine track shifts west

All right, the very latest on tropical storm Francine as we've been talking about, we have seen a little bit of a shift in the forecast models as well as an increase in intensity though I was kind of diving into some of those models, those are on the high end of the forecast intensity. So only a few are indicating that category two hurricane center just thinking because it's getting a bit better organized. It will have that window for further strengthening tonight and tomorrow they went ahead and again, that is too far off of the realm of possibilities. One thing we did see steadily this afternoon was a little bit better organization of the thunderstorms around a better defined center. And while that's good and bad, bad, we would have liked this to say unorganized and is really more of a rain maker, but good because now we will get a little bit more of an accuracy and I would not likely see too many huge deviations in the computer models. Not too far out of the Brownsville Radar, we're starting to see some, it looks like kind of a developing eye wall. So it is definitely on its way to intensification. And the hurricane center does think it could be a hurricane by tonight. And certainly throughout the day, tomorrow, as it then begins that more north easterly track, exactly when that turn to the northeast begins, will determine exactly where it makes landfall. And as I mentioned, we did see a little bit of a shift more towards the west, which is why I like showing that center line while we say not to focus on it, it could be anywhere within this track. That center line just gives you an idea of if the hurricane center is thinking one way or another with their change to uh category two at landfall, uh Wednesday afternoon. So that also did speed up the time of landfall, which is also another good thing, uh less time over the water, the better and then quickly moving to the north. By Thursday, early morning, the storm center is approaching Jackson Mississippi or just to the west and we will already see improving conditions here by late win Wednesday night and Thursday with that shift in the forecasted track, that really was not very dramatic on the hurricane center. This is where the models find themselves kind of on the western envelope of that cone. If the models maintain this position a little bit closer toward Lake Charles. At the before the 10 o'clock advisory, I would venture to say we will see another shift at 10 from the hurricane center's track winds offshore now, right around the center is where we have our strongest winds. Some buoy is not too far away, 20 to 2530 miles an hour with those about the gusts. And so this isn't a very large windfield. We'll see what it does is, it tries to get a little bit better organized, but at the moment, it is rather contained. It also doesn't have a lot going forward with intensification. It does have good outflow in the other of the upper atmosphere, meaning it has room to grow. We have strong wind shear and very dry air to its north which it will start to encounter as soon as early Wednesday morning. So up to the point of landfall, it'll be in a hostile environment, not only from wind shear but also dry air. Now it is possible that it could try and kind of contain some moisture right around its core and use that to con uh further intensify. But if this dry air is able to rotate into that core, that immediately starts zapping the power of the storms and that was what we will hopefully see again. The wind wind field forecast will be determined as the storm gets better organized. We'll start to see those tropical storm force winds probably as soon as early Wednesday morning, mainly across southwester south, central Louisiana, moving toward our bayou parishes probably by the noon hour and then most of our region and not all of us as we head further into the afternoon and evening. As far as the structure of the storm goes, that is going to be seen with this uh impact from the wind shear as well as the dry air. And this is a forecast model of satellite, what it could look like up to the point of landfall. Notice it does look like it still intensifies and gets a bit better organization, but we will have to see what those external uh components due to the storm. Wind, sheer dry air all would be working in our favor. As far as the winds go. It'll be breezy during the day tomorrow, you'll still have time to get out and about and then Wednesday will be that day. You may want to just hang inside as a lot of schools are being canceled. That's when we'll see the heaviest our rainfall though. This doesn't look to be as much of a rain event, but certainly some damaging winds. When we get those winds gusting up to 30 or excuse me, 50 to 60 miles an hour. Rainfall totals looking to be 3 to 4 to maybe five inches. Some models indicating six. I think that is on the high end as this is going to be a very fast moving storm. The other issue will be the coastal flooding anywhere from Coca port Fuson West will have the chance of maybe 6 ft above normal high tide and then where we're looking at probably one to at the extreme three. So not a huge storm surge issue. Uh with regards to Southeast Louisiana a little bit more out toward the coast or excuse me, out toward south central southwester Louisiana's coastline. And then for us, I think the biggest issue will be the winds as we had throughout the day on Wednesday. So watching the increasing winds Tuesday, Wednesday will be our nastier day, wrapping up early Thursday and the rest of the weekend and early next week. Very pleasant.