UFC Vegas 97 Picks, Bets, Props | Burns vs Brady Fight Previews, Predictions

Intro [Music] [Applause] [Music] welcome to another edition of the doger pass podcast this for UFC Vegas 97 week off back into the mix producer J Jared is on the sticks Cody saftic is on the line we're talking about you know there's this week's card and there's next we car there's a lot of stuff going on in the World of Sports you got NFL football season starting up and all of that I was like Jared was asking me before he came in he's like how's this card I'm like yeah for for an apex card not so bad like you know maybe that means like the the the stakes have been lowered I'm like and then next week is the sphere which is a um you know it's a solid pay-per-view with a lot of intriguing fights and Cody I I had to tell him to save it for the show because he went off on some sort of just crazy a tribe so the floor is yours Cody you can talk all the the smack you want about UFC 306 UFC no yeah I wasn't like talking smack we were just having a casual conversation you were saying how oh there's a pay-per-view next weekend it looks really good and I was like no man I got some I got some gripes with this pay-per-view first of all Dana goes on this whole no one's ever done it no one will ever do it and no one is ever going to go back there and do it and we spent $20 million and it's a love letter to the Mexican people every every press conference UFC and power slap he just can't shut up about it how great of a card it is and no one's ever going to do it the NHL draft goes there and they they ask him about that they're like oh did you see the draft what did you think he's like that's gonna look like kids playing with crayons so now there's this expectation and Paul we went to CSN we went to the same College the professors there would be like don't start off a story with this is a great story because now there's an expectation that it's actually going to be a great story now every story that you deliver after starting it with this is a great story is GNA feel mid because it probably wasn't that great that's how he did this card it's going to be the greatest card he treats it like it's UFC 300 he talks about it like it's the greatest thing and then this is what he delivers and yeah shano Mali versus m as give me that all day long everybody loves that that's what saves this card is that you can't really say it's a terrible card when it's got one of the hotly anticipated fights one of the greatest fights one of the most you know um just a fight that people are getting excited for so it's got a it's got a killer main event but as we talked about Mor suffers a cut Mor Rob suffers potentially staff infection fights do get cancelled what does this card look like if it loses this fight oh bad oh bad we got a co-main event between Alexa grao and Valentino shevchenko nobody cares I don't know if you're sitting at home right now thinking to yourself well Cody well well I care no you don't no you don't nobody cares about seeing this thing again but fair enough they're two high level Fighters we'd like to see them fight but you're going to pay all this money this is the greatest co-main event you've seen no one's ever GNA do it bigger here yeah okay man and then what Ronaldo Rodriguez versus OD osor this is on the pay-per-view there's no way that's on the pay-per-view oh man no it is because they advertised last week's card they were like check it out the spar's coming up and they showed the main card and it was still at least in terms of the broadcast it was still on there now topology will tell you it's right under the com event yes it was the curtain jerker in terms of what they released for their graphic pack but okay they they still had it on the main card which is just crazy to me Ora versus Lopez great fight I me you got yeah everybody loves that fight and it's going to be entertaining and it's high level and and this and that I I I get that part but again you got an Ortega that's coming off a wonky sickness and he's been off a while and he's had some injuries and even though it's still a great M matchup and I think it's a great comain event on this card I think it lost like a little bit of luster and then what's the rest of the card Daniel zel Huber estabon riix again that's a main card fight you're paying for that a main card and then the the prelims are really dope on the dirty prelims like R Rosa versus Richie Lang or um Edgar sharez versus Joshua van those are the first two fights the rest of it don't really care for so I'm not saying this is a bad card because we sit here and we break down crappy Apex cards every week and talk about how these are pretty good I'm just saying the UFC has a regular ass Fight Night in Abu Dhabi it's loaded this is the greatest love letter to Mexican Fighters and uh it's like a super suspect midlevel pay-per-view with a great headliner now imagine this card without that one fight someone gets hurt and pulls out then what does it look like it looks like I can't say illegal streaming websites for you because I'm going to get myself in trouble but it's not the kind of thing you're going to pay your money for so uh yeah I don't know that's that card we'll talk about that when the time comes we've got a 13 fight offering this week to get through we do I just have a little bit of housekeeping Pat wants uh to get some people into this contest he's running right now at Underdog you got a deposit bonus up to $1,000 if you're if you're making a new account and then there's like a season long contest I think you have to play like 180 plays so like make sure that you're like invested or whatever like it's going to be it's quite a lot of plays there's 18 weeks of the NFL season so it's 10 plays on the NFL every single week I think you can go as low as a dollar but um and then there's like $25,000 to be spread out if you're going to be betting on Underdog uh props anyways um it'd be like kind of like an extra little bonus that if you're playing enough volume could work out so Sean Brady vs Gilbert Burns the info for all that is in the the description there let's get into the main event we' got Shawn Brady taking on Gilbert darinho Burns Shawn Brady has minus 175 favorite Burns can be had for plus 150 you know Cody I feel like I've been a bit of a gilber Burns apologist and he burned me pun intended kind of intended so bad last time out against Melina it's like the the the the path to victory was there you know the takedowns were there the cardio just didn't hold up and we've talked about this guy and his grappling skills his grappling abilities so many years but what I am starting to see and maybe it's him starting to look at what's after fighting for me I know he's doing like podcasts and focusing on these types of things he looks like a guy who fell in love with his hands a little bit probably doesn't do as much grappling anymore and frankly it seems like he's losing that edge in his game I've never been a Shawn Brady guy by any stretch of the imagination and frankly like I don't know if I really want to pull the trigger on Shawn Brady at minus 175 but man the yeah what happened in round three there against Jack Dela is a really bad look and it wasn't even that long ago so it gun to my head if you forced me to bet on this main event I think I'm ever so slightly still laying H five rounds kind of changes things too it does five rounds frankly if this was a three- round fight at this number I would probably lean towards Burns five rounds the fact that burns has shown an inability to Grapple for extended periods of time if you just hang out in his guard he doesn't seem to have any dangerous um doesn't seem to have too many like dangerous attacks from that that position anymore he's not really sweeping reversing it could get a little bit dicey on the feet for sure Sean Brady I think that's the one part of his game that's you know he's got to fill in a lot but you know we saw Burns get taken down by like balal like nine times like the passs right there for the taking Shawn Brady is the pick for me I mean I kind of hate it you know me I hate Chuck but I I think just burns is kind of heading in another Direction it feels kind of trappy to to bet Gilbert Burns at this stage in his career what's your take here yeah like so I agree with a lot of your points Burns is 38 years old now he's got a head coaching he's not the head coach I mean obviously um Henry hoop is still the head coach over there but he is taking a very prominent role he's cornering these guys he's walking these guys out he's traveling all over the state side yeah I I would say Gilbert Burns is maybe looking at a career afterwards is that these guys to me are both kind of I wouldn't say 50-50s that they're inconsistent them at best they have all these skills them at their worst they're lacking a lot of stuff and I'm having a hard time finding out who's going to be consistent on the day of the fight so again to talk about Burns you mentioned that the guy slowed down Big Time against Jack Melena that so that's very fair and it's odd to me because one fight prior against he fights Bal mohhamad he did not give up nine takedowns he gave up no takedowns no all good the thing is he went five rounds with balal and balal pushes a hell of a pace and he got beat but he somewhat kept pace on some of those rounds he showed a good accountable himself and he went five full rounds the very next fight he's up to nothing against Jack Melena on two of the judges scorecards he just needs to coast in the third and he can't even do that he's gassed out so is his cardio a problem generally throughout his career yes it has been a problem but they're these small instances like him versus Tyron Woodley where he wrecked him for five rounds or him versus balal where he didn't win but at least he fought five rounds sometimes his cardio is in check and he's a problem he fought kamat Chaya he outstruck chv he landed over a 100 significant strikes on chv chamay took him down twice and he just pops back up the guy looks very well around he's gassed after three don't get me wrong but it was such a hectic pace it's like damn when Gilbert is on yet the guy's a problem now you look at these two losses and you say well he's not on anymore but one thing that Melina does that Brady doesn't is he's a good Striker so when you're gassed and you're up two rounds and you're gassed it's the third round and this guy's swinging for the fences on you it's a problem Brady does not swing for the fences in fact that's kind of my knock on Brady you look at his last win against Kelvin gastam he landed four significant strikes over the course of he he subbed him in the third but he's so reliant on the takedowns five of them lots of control time some submission attempts and he Subs them but 12 significant strikes prior to that he fought BL Maham right do you think he went five rounds of BL mahamad hell no he went two rounds not even two full rounds he got dummied up 80 to 58 could not take him down and you want to talk about Burns gassing against mandalena Brady absolutely gassed against BL Muhammad now what's Troublesome to me is BL mamed the reason why people love giving him so much [ __ ] is here's a guy that decision win decision wins five rounds against vente Luke he decision win Damen may he decision win Diego Lima decision win Lyman good decision win tekashi Sato sorry not sto Curtis Miller he decisioned win chance Ren counter he decisioned Tim means there's only one guy that bah Muhammad's knocked out Sean Brady so the guy's durability is is not very good his striking is not bad but he does not throw a whole lot of volume the only time you've ever seen him land a whole lot in a fight was actually his UFC debut against Court McGee and in that fight 3 to one favorite completely gasses after two rounds won the first two rounds potentially lost the third round to court MC's debut since then he's not throwing he's landed 47 34 37 18 58 and 14 and six subsequent subsequent fights so his cardio is not good either his striking is not good ah it's not that it's not good is that he's so worried that if he overextends himself and overexerts himself he's going to gas out that really he's only comfortable in securing takedowns and now grinding you that's it so that becomes problem against Burns because even though his cardio is not good either you can't really make a strong argument that it's that much worse than Shawn Brady's in fact this guy's fought five rounds twice in his career if you're using MMA Mass similar opponent they both F below Burns is able to you know survive and keep going whereas Brady just folds up if Brady does not get his takedowns he looks like a deer headlight so yeah that's worried to me too now look at their actual striking who's the better Striker yeah Gilbert Burns by country mile he's actually got decent wins he's actually landed some good shots he won the first round against kamaro Usman before getting stiff jabbed um you know he was very competitive against Chaya up a we class on short notice there's things to me that would that certainly indicate that burns is a better Striker the grappling that's John Brady's literally only thing and Gilbert Burns is a former ADCC competitor a high level BJJ black belt he trains out of one of the best gyms in in America if not the whole world he's been five rounds he has that experience yeah he's coming off two losses one to the current champion and one to an Uber Prospect who again he won the first two rounds he just in the third is it his cardio is bad or is that Melina is one of these guys that just doesn't stop going because that's what Jack Melina is and so ah man it becomes so tricky to me now and so this is an even money fight as far as I'm concerned or like minus 125 Shawn Brady but to say it's is 175 Shawn Brady it's like based on what well Brady's got better cardio I don't think you can argue that well Brady's a better wrestler yeah maybe maybe but Burns has got 80% takedown defense you know who are the guys that have taken him down chamaya okay fair uh Brady's got great Jiu-Jitsu so does Burns and Brady's striking and especially the volume he's not keeping pace so the five rounds is the biggest thing dude I if this is three rounds uh I think I'm thinking Gilbert burs five rounds I I'm going to agree with you the 38 the coaching the life after fighting that's actually ingrained in my head too like I I think that the end is probably starting to draw near fights for a world not World title fights a five round headlining fight huge moment loses very next fight you're taking on a guy on his way up and he's not motivated and as a result his cardio's not as good and as a result you're seeing he's thinking about life after fighting so how motivated is he here to fight Shawn Brady I'm not sure but again it's a headlining fight it's a big spot good chance to get paid two paychecks go out there and fight to the best of your ability so think I'm just going to take a dog a pass here man I'll take Gilbert Burns uh but yeah it's it's not going to be high up it's going to have to be something that you're going to have to bet with a reasonable expectation there's a roller coaster of emotions figuring out where you were going to pick there because I feel like people will say in the comment section a case for both sides but it's like both guys have Merit both guys could win this fight both guys in certain situations will win this fight but ultimately I have to make a deciding factor Sean BR is an excellent fighter Burns is an excellent fighter they holes in their game so you're just trying to line up who might be able to take advantage of those and Underdog Main Event I'm not going to fault myself on that one but you're right I do sometimes talk around in circles and that's just because I'm trying to touch on 100 points without having any notes in front of me you and like I mean I'm the guy who said that uh you know that that there was nine takedowns and there were zero takedowns where I got that nine takedowns from was Felipe dos Santos versus Andre Lima and Felipe dos Santos got taken down nine times like Victor Al Morano which is a pretty big red fight we'll talk about that fight way later I got thoughts on that one too yes this main event I I mean you make tons of good points on both sides and and yeah of course there's like you know oh he's picking or he's talking about both sides it's like well it's minus 175 plus 150 which is you know basically like a 60 a 6040 split so 60% of the time 40% of the time of course both guys have you know path to Victory uh in this spot yeah I don't know I don't think I have much unless there's something crazy with like H props or something something degenerate um and it would probably good live bet I think yeah or maybe Burns's submission skills are just way better than Brady's and we'll we'll find that out I don't know a Gilbert Burns submission prop if it was like super juicy could be maybe interesting but I don't know I'm all in Natalia Silva vs Jessica Andrade circles about this we got the co-main event we got Natalia Silva taking on Jessica andrad minus 300 for Silva Andra can be had for plus 250 narrative nation which suggests that there's like some sort of like drama going on with andrad and an MMA manager and we know how MMA managers are and you know some of the sneaky stuff that goes on I mean you would probably know better about this type of stuff than anybody from frankly I I saw like an article that like she's trying to sue somebody for like $2 million right now um I think she's giving up a lot of speed and technicality in this matchup and the old jondra the one that would just run through things could absolutely cause Big Time problems and Natalia Silva did struggle last time out um you know when she had to face a bit of a takedown threat against Vivian arujo just like it was very very low volume looked very tentative it was not it was by far you know it was a step up in competition and she looked a little bit like she was like meeting her Peak so I am intrigued by an NRA that you know CF do model all that type of stuff uh plus 250 on onra it seems awfully enticing here um but I think she's giving up a lot of speed and technicality can she make it ugly can she get inside can she get takedowns that's the real question I wanted to ask you before I really make like a play on this fight yeah Paul you should know me long enough now that I am narrative Nation dog I love me a good storyline and I love this storyline um yeah okay so for Jessica and J this is just is a greasy theory is all it really is so uh so anyways she marries this Fernanda Gomez it's her longtime girlfriend they date for four or five years she marries her right then last year late last year Fernand Gomez they her and fernan split and she loses half of her stuff in fact she loses apparently more than half of her stuff so this is a Jessica and Dr that has 38 professional fights she's only 32 years old she's fought her entire life she's won a World title at 115 she's challenged for a world title at 125 she's fought absolutely everybody of relevance and a bunch of people of non-relevance in the division she is OG gangster but she loses like you know typical divorce she she loses everything so so now she goes into this mode and she's vocal about it about how I have no man I need to fight random people in bad matchups on short notice underprepared because I need to pay for these lawyer bills and that's what leads to this losing streak losing to Aaron blanchfield by submission is no big deal what was a big deal is that Aaron blanchfield was out striking her soundly on the feet problem next one Yao Janan Yao Janan is actually an excellent fighter not really known as a power pun right you can't go to a whole lot of her fights where she's absolutely ko'ed somebody and yet and dra completely koed in that fight in the first round and very vocal about barely trained for that one then she gets Tatiana Suarez which of course you can't come in underprepared and yeah she got taken down and she got submitted so so she comes out of it and she's like oh the divorce is over and I've paid for everything and thanks to the UFC for booking me these extremely difficult matchups and paying me and now it's like head clear of conscious but what more important is that she loses to blandfield at 125 she loses to Jan at 115 she loses to Tatiana Suarez at 115 McKenzie Duran wins and Marina Rodriguez wins at 115 and now she's coming back up to 125 now why would that be you're on a run at 115 you're gaining because she wants to stay as active as possible because now that she's got this divorce out of the way she's realized the reason she actually doesn't have no money is her manager of 14 years has been screwing her not in that sense in the other sense been taking all over month so she got an ex-wife that took half and a manager that took the other half and so to me she's just looking to compete she knows that she wants to fight she wants to stay active she'll take whatever fight you put in front of her at whatever weight class you put in front of her because she's chasing the money a little bit now I'll admit against Duran she looked good she moves forward she boxes her up dur can't take the heavy Onslaught she crumbles over against Marina Rodriguez this one's interesting the first round uh Andra gets the takedown wins the first round the second round she's losing the second round there's like I don't know 90 seconds maybe minute 45 left she turns on the heat she rushes forward she lands a series of big shots that sways the judges two of the judges into giving her back that second round and then the third round she's swinging at air she's short she's Compact and we always compared her to John liner and you'll appreciate this liner at 125 o he's a problem liner at 135 not so much because he's just so small that it's hard for him to get inside that pocket the same way he would do at 125 she's the same way when she moves up a weight class at 115 she's a tornado she just comes forward you can't get out of the way I went 25 these bigger girls are able to Matador her and counter punch her and hurt her ywn Hurtz her Ruez is able to play that longer game so to speak and I feel like that's what Natalia Silva brings to the table she's faster she's bigger she's longer she likes to counter punch from the outside her fight with Jasmine jisus she puts over well over 100 significant strikes couple takedowns solid performance the fight with Theresa bleda she got taken down in the first and largely got grinded in the first second and third she comes on that fight with Vivan Royo taken down in the first second and the third she comes on cardio's not a problem striking solid I feel like Andra best advant would try to be to utilize the wrestling why that won't be as effective is because she's coming back up to 115 where you can't just throw these girls around the same way right second thing is girls have tried to use that game plan and if you can't consistently do it for three four rounds Natalia is going to get up now standing listen this is a really good striking match as Jos will probably Blitz forward and throw hands and do that but I feel like the bigger opponent who's a natural counter puncher in Natalia Silva should be able to you know navigate those Waters now the UFC looks in Italia she's got EX looking record she's since she's come to the UFC she's starting to build some serious momentum I feel like they're trying to move her position her maybe to the upper echelon of the division and draw she's a huge name she's foughten everybody this would be an excellent opportunity as a co-main event on this you know nice little fight night card to go out there and gain gain some notoriety amongst the Casual fans by beating a name and game opponent so I feel like natal Silva wins it's the CF do model of the nature right women's MMA you want me to bet minus 300 against a former Champion the money line I really don't like but in terms of how the fight plays out yeah no I'm thinking Natalia Silva strikes her 2928 natala Silva could knock her out in theory as well she could intercept her with a big shot we've seen Andra seriously hurt when she's not ready to fight a hard 15 minutes she tends to face a little adversity and crumple so I don't even love the over on this fight they going to be a very good striking battle that natala Silva ends up winning on either either 2928 or some type of Kno yeah I guess like after like Contender series are are not are Knockouts back bro or were those just the contender series gloves I think Shannon Clark yeah the the condemed series seems to get more Knockouts but it's probably lower level fighting but like everywhere everywhere this morning it was like crazy KO for the ages Dana White says one of the craziest Kos it was like a sloppy overhand right that yeah and it's all about a KO is very much how the human body reacts you know you get these Kos where the guy's stiff and goes down and it's like whoa the technique itself was just like she just punched her one time in the face but holy crap did Shannon Clark ever go out so that's a tough one for Clark who's still five and one but you there's no coming back from that like you're a human highlight reel for Life they'll always play you on the intro for every season of the contenders series for the rest of existence uh you know I that that that's you're minus three th000 favor not that I bet it I actually took the over one I took it over two and a half that was even stupider probably I just I I'm I'm obviously not going to bet a girl at minus 3,000 uh but all the same it's like she she lost everybody in both scenarios everybody had a bad time betting Shannon Clark so I see she like turned all over social media to private and is like basically going to go hide under a rock she's also in her 30s I don't doubt that that's the last time you see her in a notable organization minus 3000 favorite well it's just started climbing like in the morning it was -900 right and then I looked back in the afternoon and it has this is just beted online other books may have fluctuated differently but uh they were she was minus 1,800 during like the afternoon and then as the fight was starting to come out I noticed maybe it's just been online but I've noticed just in general these lines have been swinging a ton like hundreds of points like two 300 points now it's one thing to understand Regional MMA LFA for example bkfc something like that Aries FC you'll be able to swing the line with a little bit of money there's these other instances where a UFC fight or a contender series fight or a Bellator Fight shouldn't be swinging 300 points in a 45 minute time frame but yeah I don't know I don't know what it is I couldn't tell you maybe just the books are wising up that money's coming in and they're immediately yeah they looking to just shift it they're just moving the price just hoping that somebody buys back on the other side because they're like we don't want to be over invested in you know yunzi Dubin um they didn't want to take a stand I wonder I'm looking at the numbers right now I was drafting like two football drafts last night and so I didn't realize like when you said likeus 3,000 now I look at it's like yeah minus 2,000 - 2500 in some spots like yeah that number went absolutely nuclear um I wasn't paying attention for you know basically last last night I wasn't able to even watch the contender series card so uh yeah you kind of surprised me when you said that number because I'm like that's not what I saw earlier in the night but clearly if you look at all of them this quillin sill guy right and I actually got him like I don't know an hour before the show no not an hour that's a lie couple hours before the show starts he's minus 180 and then he goes off at like minus 220 that was not egregious right Clark took on a thousand points Austin bashy here's a great one Austin bashy is sitting around minus 700 for the majority of the week and then he ends up going off at 11 or 1200 uh This Will Curry This Will Curry end up being God awful but will curry sitting at minus 350 all day long and then fight's about to happen and he's s in minus 500 range and then this eigor calvan also a fraud um yeah same thing I think he moved from like 350 to 500 so I could I couldn't tell you I don't know if the pools are so small here's like I don't know it's another stupid greasy Theory but in horse racing what what some like really really sharp bets were able to do is you bet let's say I bet Igor calvan and I don't want the guy but I bet him and I bet 10 grand on him now the line right it shifts towards eagor calv now I can pull my money depending on the book I can say sorry I don't actually really want to make that bet prior to it started you can cancel the bet but you putting that money in has fluctuated the number and then other people are going to just turn it on say Oh Shannon Clark's a minus 3,000 favor not click they don't do no research they just see everybody else's bet in honor and it's moved the number from 1,00 to 3,000 it's just an auto bet it's going to Auto bet this people do the same thing in football Florida State's playing or what's what's the Seminal Florida State yeah yeah are going to be boss they probably don't do any research they probably don't look at the fact that the team started the season off 0 And1 and it has a bunch of different players in last year and blah blah blah they don't look at that they just see there a big number so I almost wonder if someone's not able to put money and I'm saying 10 grand 10 grand would shifted enough but like one of these Drake Type guys but sharp not just an idiot with money a sharp with money someone was able to put money on one side and then take a cash out I I don't want to make that bet book says yeah you're a preferred player so we'll let you cash it out many books will do that you get your money back the line is shifted now you cram it the other side at a much better number so whereas people will be looked oh put your tin hat on um very common in horse racing you can get a simal cast that's five or 10 seconds uh in front of like the general one so it's not like you're cheating it's that they'll put 10 grand on one side they'll change the whole betting board by putting the BET and then they'll pull the BET and then yeah the betting board will probably readjust but it doesn't readjust in real time just like that and so as it's taking time to adjust you put your beted on the other side said now horse racing did to combat it is that if you do that the Numbers Never lock in they're constantly moving so if you bet a horse at8 to1 and someone puts a million dollars on someone puts $100,000 on them that horse will now go off at 5 to2 or two to one it'll change it in a real time you don't get that 8 to1 anymore this is different you could bet this thing a week ago and it locks in so number tampering is probably absolutely in play if there's money to be made someone's doing it it's all I got to say I mean yeah looking at like the board and how it moved last night it kind of looks like there was like a bunch of like AR Arbitrage going on not not even suspicious like yeah people were probably driving a certain number and then taking the plus money at like say DraftKings or FanDuel or or whatever I know like bet online I think there was like $2,000 limits on on on a lot of those and frankly like from my perspective you know maybe maybe people in America have like a different perspective but like I feel like for MMA the Market seems to follow um beted online more often than not um bet online beted online did not allow parlays on those Contender series fights until five hours out yeah right so a little after 3:00 they were like okay okay you can make parlays so yeah of course they're worried about is somebody getting a better number and then just throwing it on a ticket with something else and multiplying it so yeah we talked about a few weeks ago the game's evolving like sharpers are getting sharper and books are get smarter figing out way yeah the books are figuring out way how to you know combat certain Maneuvers and certain techniques that uh We've enjoyed to have success but again yeah it's all about life in general it's all about adaptability so that's all we can do when when we get to dgan later on we'll like that's a something that didn't exist five years ago right like nobody would ever be that price but all right Steve Garcia vs Kyle Nelson we got we've been uh we've been we've been dragging our heels a little bit let's get into the action uh more and maybe a little bit more Speedy here we got Steve Garcia taking on Kyle Nelson minus 180 for Steve uh Kyle Nelson could be have for plus 155 I Steve has been like an A oneman Wrecking Crew don't get me wrong since mahash the legend of mahash sha mahash shat in your apple pie um Steve's been absolutely crushing I've been backing Steve in a whole bunch of situ situations I haven't I haven't bet anything on the actual fight here but it's an over one and a half I got plus 140 so I didn't even get like a great number I see it's like plus 150 now I think Kyle Nelson maybe early in his career when we fought Carlos Diego Ferrera the cardio looked like a bit of an issue um but over time and like you know the chin has been knocked uh in round three against Billy q but like a lot of that had to do with the cardio he went on a run of like a bunch of decision decision fights closely competitive I think he's rounded out the skill set I like the over one and a half from this fight I know st's been a oneman rcking crew absolutely knocking out everyone he's got P power in his hands but I feel like seven and a half minutes Kyle Nelson has been fighting a lot smarter I think he's going to avoid engaging in just like an absolute slobber knocker early on give me seven and a half minutes here A plus 150 I mean I already took some plus 140 I'll probably take more if the number continues to grow um um and if I think it's going to go over one and a half I think it's a it's a dogger pass situation here Kyle Nelson's got decent kickboxing when working on that grappling game I think he can at least make this competitive I don't know about betting Steve at like you know mo nearly minus 200 uh what's your take here yeah I'm going to go call Nelson money line with the plus money but uh yeah I'm expecting an absolute car crash you're over one and a half but rather I love over one and a halfs I'll bet over one and a halfs and everything card last night in end series that Cal vonti he had never fought longer than 88 seconds we went that over one and a half I love them Steve Garcia dude I don't know that I would touch a under one and a half or over one and a half sorry he's had seven fights in the UFC six of them have been under one and a half he also knocked out his opponent on the contender Series in the first round so with like seven fights with the promotion is eight you know he he's hitting that under one and a half every time either he knocks you out very quickly or or you knock him out fairly quickly that's his issue is that he's not a very complete fighter he can wrestle a little bit he can certainly Slug It Out his god-given talent is he's got massive amounts of power in his left and right hand he is a 145 white version of Derrick LS he hits you it's a problem it's that just like Derrick Lewis he doesn't actually have a whole lot of skill his wrestling's mid his cardio is mid his boxing is not all that good is that if he hits you you are so screwed um you look back at his run right his fight with Charlie aneros he got dropped twice two clean knockdowns almost knocked out Charlie only landed seven strikes in the whole fight and two of them drop Steve okay he gets back up and he wins but his Chin's a problem the very next fight against mahash shot that's the one you were on him with he again he gets knocked down twice and he runs head first into a counter punch that floors him the next fight against Chase Hooper he's a huge Underdog and he beat Chase Hooper I I'm going to rate that win it's a quality win but then you got shyon neraki he got dropped again in the Brown he gets back up and he ends up winning based on his opponent's getting tired or you know making a mistake in him capitalizing but his chin is equally as bad as his massive power punching so again when you're looking at an over one and a half I don't love him man if he beats Kyle Nelson we've seen Nelson knocked out by Billy Q as you mentioned that was car Diego that was round three but it was seven seconds into round three so it was basically the very first punch that landed in round three uh yeah yeah fair fair but but again Carlos ferer I give him a pass on that one because it was a week's notice uh at 155 pounds up a weight class against Carlos Diego ferera and it was UFC debut I'm going to give him a pass that was him gassing out but I've seen him take a kickboxing match for Infusion over in Nova Scotia he got butchered so as much as he is a junkyard dog there is a precedent for him getting knocked out and Steve likes to set the precedent on knocking people out so 100% I can see Steve knocking out Kyle in the same breath Steve's been wobbled and hurt by lesser punchers than Nelson and even though Kyle Nelson isn't really as some big Power puncher he's got that dog in him he moves forward his fight with Bill Al jaob maybe an early stoppage but you see when he unloads his hands and gets off with his striking he is a bit of a problem longtime proy of KW Allin over in Hamilton the guy can strike he's rounded at his cardio as you mentioned the five takedowns against Doo Choy impressive enough to suggest that you know his wrestling with Adrien woolly coach Adrien woy is really working for him he's well-rounded his game is he a world beater no is he a Nate land wear no but similar to a Nate lwar he can bring that dog he can bring that pressure he can bring that pace he can wrestle a little bit he can strike a little bit he can just be tougher and meaner than his opponent and I think that's what led to this F this four-fight winning streak when we look at Garcia's four fight winning streak he smokes Hooper a young kid he beats Nayak on a fight that he had to come off the floor on seriously hurt milk Costa mil Costa would like the flu in that fight he did absolutely nothing nothing he fought a wicked good three rounds against Austin lingo one fight prior the very next fight against Garcia he just tries to wrestle for the first two rounds in gas very strange and then against s Wu Choy again it's like he's not looking great early and then bang he hit Sul Choy and that's the end of it so I'm not trying to crap on him the guy is action personified and get ready to sign him a $50,000 bonus if he wins it's that there's a lot of gray area and red flags if he does not land that killer KO Nelson meanwhile he's had to work for the whole thing Doo Choy draw that's because Choy lost a point but still choy's pretty badass the fight prior against ji Herbert he got robbed dud he went to enemy territory he fought him tooth and nail and I thought he won and then the three-fight winning streak Blake Builder looked good his fight with Fernando Pia he looked really good at two Underdog caches there and then Bill oo a third Underdog cash three in a row had landed 32 significant strikes on Bill in four minutes of action alone cardio looks better Pace looks better striking looks better yeah he's 33 but it's taken him this long and this much experience to finally find that sweet spot in his life and in his career and I feel like I'm going to roll with that so no disrespect to Steve Garcia but Steve you bet as an underdog Steve against anybody you bet him as an underdog that's the kind of guy he's you do not bet Steve Garcia as a near two to one favorite because uh yeah there's a there's a 50-50 side to Crazy Action win the dark side of that is him getting blasted out of there or potentially just tiring out or running out of ideas I don't know I I don't know it's a doger pass for me personally dog is Kyle Nelson I'm going take Kyle Nelson all I will say you know Kyle Nelson went in there against Fernando Pia Pia knocked out or knocked down orosa and then in his most recent fight he knocked down uh his other opponent there Nelson doesn't get knocked down goes tip for Tat wins a you know competitive but uh clear decision for him in that fight doesn't even have to re utilize the wrestling just kind of stays out of trouble mind just P's and qes I think like I think his like you know his chin issues are a little bit overblown Steve can you know can bomb on anybody and cause you know knockout against basically anybody but I may not be able there may be Kyle Nelson 10 to one props by decision Nelson by decision plus a thousand I don't think I'm going to be able to help myself Cody that's all I'm saying passion drive and patience the formula for winning championships is also what keeps your ride or die alive eBay Motors has everything you need to maintain your vehicle and level it up to Peak Performance superchargers roof racks exhaust kits LED lights and more whether you're into speed power or style eBay Motors has you covered with over 122 million parts for your number one ride or die you'll always find what you're looking for and with eBay guaranteed fit your part is guaranteed to fit your ride every time or your money back because with eBay Motors you're burn bur and rubber not cash with all the parts you need at the prices you want it's easy to make your car the MVP and bring home huge wins keep your ride or die alive at ebaymotors.com eligible items only exclusions Cody Durden vs Matt Schnell apply all right we got Cody Duran taking on Matt Danger Schnell minus 300 for deran plus 250 for Schnell deran coming in on super super short notes is Alexander Costa was supposed to be in this spot um Snell's another guy that we have big time question marks about that that chin that durability is deran the guy to crack it particularly deran on short notice that's the real question in this fight Cody what's your take yeah I'm just trying to look so um obviously it was him versus Costa initially and then he is currently booked against Cody Duran which is everything that I've been hearing but uh like UFC stat you know what I'm talking about UFC stats they got him as fighting Josh van I'm just trying to figure out why why is that list card yeah he's fighting on the sphere so it makes sense that they would just shift him up a week but I it's probably just a mistake that's a mistake who cares about it here's my issue with Duran I think Duran wins this fight he wins this fight fairly easily if he was in shape and good to go but he's not in shape and good to go and here's another mistake typology is telling you it's at 125 it's not it's actually at 135 because Duran's taking the fight on a week's notice Duran's not particularly in shape he was Heavy when the UFC called him but the guy's a junkyard dog these are the moments that he lives for and so he's driving out to Las Vegas and making it happen apparently his girlfriend's cornering him he's he's gone on record Daniel Levy would have the best scoops on it because he's uh you know kind of buddies with him and sees him around but apparently Duran does not have a corner does not have a coach going with him him and his girlfriend are just packing up and driving out he's on a week's notice he can't make 125 so he's going up to 135 but the guy just loves fight he's a company man he loves to fight I'm not going to fault that you know not save a card but save a fight badass but but to bet it that's where it becomes a little bit Troublesome like I think Cody Duran beats this guy based on he's a stronger guy he's got the better wrestling but on the week's notice is again it's just it's too much for me to kind of get my head around Duran's not got great cardio I mean you can look to certain instances where the Chris goodier is fight he gasses all right short notice tough opponent sure Jimmy flick fight he just makes that one mistake the Maka fight just one mistake a lot of these other fights he just racks up a lot of takedowns Jake Hadley he gets caught in Triangle armar escapes wins the fight but again there's moments where you might be able to catch him dear beckov he does exactly that he chokes him out and then Bruno Silva and I'm riding high on Bruno Silva Duran's looking like a madman dude he's walking him down he's Landing shots he's D power doubles to the ground strong top game and then pom beautiful time to uppercut just lights him out so his durability whether it be him getting knocked out whether it be him getting submitted it is on the table he pushes a crazy Pace I I can't actually say he has got bad cardio he pushes a crazy Pace that his cardio can't necessarily keep up this fight with Matt Chanel everybody knows match Nell's chinny I think you mentioned it before you even threw it to me man match Nell where's his durability at nobody knows and Duran would understand that as well that I've got a guy here that if I punch him one Time Square in the face he's going over so it doesn't matter that I only got one round of cardio that I'm not in shape and I'm taking this fight up a weight class they both are they're both fly weights yeah he's bonus hunting he's going to go out there and he's just slang and bang the question becomes if it does not work if you don't catch him will you start to get tired and if you do start to get tired matchell is faster than him matchell has actually better technical boxing uh he's got some decent pop in his step he's he's you know he's foughten I would say a better level experience but certainly very experienced guys he's a Brazilian jiujitsu black belt he's excellent scrambles and he's got a cardio Advantage so the the only thing that matchell doesn't got going for him here is his chin and yes defensive wrestling not bad but Duran likely does Bowl him over it's that schnell's got an excellent grappling he's got a nasty triangle choke he likes to have a you know good quick scrambles you've seen Duran have some success have some success make one small mistake and get caught in these submissions so yes Schnell is able to win this fight multiple different ways but like when you think about it it's like I just don't know that he's going to sit there and take a square shot from go Duran and keep going if Duran comes atam just like a human meat missile for five minutes that might actually be all it takes that's true so what what do you say the line was currently as of writing 300 Duran which I just think is crazy I'm gonna take it's a it's a it it should be a flyweight fight short notice he's apparently not bringing a coach it's up a weight class minus 300 for this type of spot is absolutely crazy so maybe matchell is the PRP pick Underdog some series plus money that actually could come through but you can't be ton confident on confident on it um yeah maybe that's what he is for me this week I I will take match nil oh my God are you going to be sweating are you going to be sweating every time Cody Jordan even moves his hands you're at least they're giving us the number to you know to sweat a little bit less like if you bet match Nell it's like in any range of outcomes in that fight him getting floored very early is 100% on the table so you know buyer beware and all of that good stuff minus 300 short notice who knows where like and you know the guys are just going to come in slugging throwing you know H overhand rights going crazy trying to get 50k um for you know stepping up and taking a fight like this on incredibly short notice um that just yeah it's all well and good until it doesn't work right so um yeah it seems very dogger pass like take take my money if I lose here's here's my last point and we'll move on because you're right we got to Rifle through some of these he in 2019 right he fights Alexander panto goddamn current champ right then he beats Tyson n very quality Victory I rate both those guys better than Cody D he has a no contest with rerio Bonine who's actually pretty good he fights Brandon royval which he was doing good until he wasn't actually was doing really good on his feet till he got subbed Brandon royval title Challenger he fought matus Nicola one of the better guys of the division he fought Steve IG in his last fight who is a former T Challenger and they originally got him booked against allesandro Costa on this fight like all matchell does is fight the best guys that arguably when they're like would you rather fight Cody deran on a week's notice instead yes I'd rather fight Cody deran than some of these other guys I've been banging it out with so uh goddamn bad durability outside of that let's roll Trevor Peek vs Yanal Ashmouz with it brother now we got your boy Trevor Peak taking on yanal ashmus Trevor Peak fight week Cody it's your boy this I mean I like it like in terms of like you go through these fights and you're like it's going to be a good time um it's a it's a you know uh maybe it's because we missed UFC for a week um proper but like it's a this is kind of a fight that it's like this is my dirty little secret but it's like I'm going to enjoy the the [ __ ] out of this you know I mean it's Trevor Peak fight week how can I not be having a good time overhand yeah standing Hammer Fist from the top rope I don't know if I really want to bet your boy but I'm interested to hear what you have to say first yeah and that's why if I was ever the president the UFC which I'll never be I'd be like dude we are writing a Mexican love letter at the sphere put Trevor Peak on because he embodies what it is to be Mexican without having any type of Hispanic heritage whatsoever Peak fights like a human car crash we love him it's peak week we love it um but yeah yeah I think just him getting into the sport a little bit late like you got to realize that Trevor Peak is now in his 30s he is 30 I believe sorry 29 29 years old coming up on his 30th birthday he has got all of these attributes to him that you cannot teach he's got a cast iron chin it's held up many times his cardio looks super wonky at times but he pushes through it he's got unbelievable heart unbelievable durability that the actual skill set hasn't really caught up to those things great person but it's going to take a lot of work and so when you're 24 years old yeah don't take as much damage Peaks taking in these fights but you've got six more years to Blossom and develop Peaks kind of against borrow time simply because his style which is just take a crazy amount of damage you can't do that forever and so he needs to now adjust to using some wrestling and setting up his punches and maybe kind of taking the path of least resistance so he's doing everything right he's spent a lot of time in Colorado he trains out there with Dwayne Ludwig uh gets work with tons of good guys Cory tan hein's gym um cardio seems to be improving his technical boxing and his footwork seem to be improving but then you will see guys like chpe mariscal or Charlie Campbell that if they get tired of striking with him they just take him down most guys get tired of striking with him at some point not because it's anything technical but just like you said the H the straight the the hammer fist the standing Hammer fist the weird angles the shuffle uppercuts the hooks from the hip side the him chewing on his Mount guard and just marching forward on you that it gets eventually you're like I don't want to do this anymore you take him down at some point if he gets brick wall taked down defense it becomes a problem for a lot of guys simply because where he lacks technical skill he makes up in raw aggression raw power so listen I'm a Trevor Peak guy you'll never hear me say a bad word about him than my guy but it's like the UFC needs to be very weary of what he brings to the table and then match him up accordingly so with Yan know ashmon like he's a more technical Striker the guy's definitely got a better kicking game you know he seems to be a little faster on the outside is that I don't necessarily think he's got some great grappling game to fall back on and if he's not going to Grapple Trevor Peak then he's leaving himself open to getting detonated at some Point his fight with Chris Duncan on the contender series uh sorry not on the contender series his fight with Sam Patterson that's a quality win I was high on Sam Patterson I still am high on Sam Patterson he Yan Ash's blast him that's his win condition he can get a quick knockout he's fought a lot of inexperienced guys on the regional scene he can get a quick knockout if the knockout doesn't materialize that's where he falls up creek against Chris Duncan he apparently blew his leg out in the first round I don't know he still gets tripled up in strike numbers his takedown defense is not there this guy that's not a Grappler despite him training at a k do Warrior tribe in New Jersey same gym as kab magov started out there there's been a lot of excellent excellent Grapplers that have come out of K Dojo word trap yanal asmo is a one of them he's very much a quick Striker so if he doesn't Mi up those takedowns against Peak I just like feel feel like Peak eventually just walks him into something Clips him with something hurts him with something and then puts ashm away uh last thing not that it really matters but like yanal ashm he's been a regional scene guy doesn't matter he fights on pfl Challenger Series in 2022 against this Dennis Hughes he's a three and a half to one favorite over Dennis Hughes and pfl Challenger Series is a day no White's Contender series ripoff right they just give it one contract instead of five every week but that's the same format there's five fights one guy gets a contract ashm wins a decision as a three and a half to one favorite didn't look that good did not get awarded a contract and then takes a short noce debut in the UFC as a uh he was a plus 225 Underdog instead so it's not like pfl saw anything in him they allow him to just walk readily the UFC brings him in because it's short notice and he's an underdog and because he wins you now owe him the other three fights on his contract so they give him one against Duncan he looks bad and now there's not a whole lot of guys for Peak to beat how many guys are worse Grapplers than Trevor Peak how many guys you know are going to stand and bang with Trevor Peak how many guys their win condition is just knocking this guy out quick and Trevor peak's never been finished not a whole lot right so this is excellent matchmaking because it's what Trevor Peak needs but this is a cross Road's fight if Ash moons loses this his ceiling is non-existent he's done if Peak loses this not that he's done is nothing like that but like you you'll have seen where his ceiling is and it'll have be pretty low right so I really need Pete to go out there and not only win blast this guy's head off which I expect him to do so give me try Peak give me TR Peak by KO and yeah this is actually just like greediness and toughness overcoming a slight speed and Rongzhu vs Chris Padilla Technical Advantage so s up for Peak baby all right we got Rong juu taking on Chris Padilla minus 220 for rangu plus 190 for Padia who you got yeah mixed emotions on this one so on one hand wrong XU looks like not the real deal but the kid's 24 years old he's got 30 Pro fights he comes out of enbo in China it's a system that they essentially take orphan kids and just teach them how to fight teach them some life lessons and stuff and then eventually turn them out manage them and fight so Rong Zoo knows nothing else other than combat that's why he's so young and has so many fights the UFC initially signed him as 21-year-old and it's just far too young it doesn't matter that you have 20 plus fights it doesn't matter that you've been doing it for 15 years and you start training when you're 6 years old and you know nothing but this there's there's still levels to this and you're a 21y old kid so it's not an initial good run he loses to kazula Vargas not not a good look um Paul will tell you all about that one beats Brandon Jenkins but he missed weight in that fight and then misses weight again against ignasio baham mandez and gets submitted so it's a bad run and it's a bad run that you have a 21-year-old kid kid that can't even make 155 he's not going to fight at 170 let me be very clear about that so he's kind of in a weird spot so the UFC Cuts him it's like go off and figure out your own stuff and he's put on a nice run since he's gotten released he's undefeated since he won road to UFC to get back in and he's earned himself now he's 24 now he's more mature now he's bigger now he's more filled in now he makes 155 more often but there are still holes to his game Mo most notably um the first time around against kazula Vargas you know he takes him down three times he's very reliant on his wrestling against Bron Jenkins he took Jenkins down six times against ignasio Bandz the only success he had is when he got that lone Tak down he's very riing on the wrestling since he's been released he's been getting taken down in his last fight against Shin haroi he gave up four takedowns and about five minutes of control time and against sangu Kim prior to that he uh gives up two takedowns and about three minutes of control time both scenarios you're taking on South Southeast Asian competition they're taking you down you were primarily known as a Grappler like I don't know I kind of have a feeling that this guy's like well-rounded but not good enough in one area his grappling is good enough to take down kazula Vargas and Brandon Jenkins but he barely wins both of those fights flip side of that his striking is really not that bad he scored three straight knockdowns you know or not three straight but knocked down Brenan Jenkins knocked out uh Sun Chang Hong and eventually knocked him out and then knocked down that sunu Kim so he's got some striking he's got some power but he doesn't seem to necessarily flourish against the best strikers of the division so so I think he's just not lost he's still super young is that he hasn't really developed the ring IQ to tie everything together I think he beats Chris beats Chris Padilla but the line's too wide and the reason I say that is Padia doesn't seem all that good but he comes in as a big Underdog against James lawn toop and I'm talking big Underdog this guy not expected to do anything in that fight what does he do he fast man this guy's got reactionary takedowns for days he takes him down and then right away it's just like oh he gets back up oh P or sorry um lawn to's back up he boom blast under boom takes him down again oh lawn top us back up it's like there's 30 seconds left in the round boom take takes him down lawn toop is giving up his back every single time and Pia capitalizes takes the back sinks the hooks in gets the rear Naka choke Subs him with like 27 seconds left in the first round would he have gased how the fight kept going maybe he was fighting like a wild man he was fighting like a wild man and his wrestling actually looked pretty de his submission game looked pretty de that's his short notice big Underdog UFC de debut now he's getting a second fight in the UFC with a full Camp against a 24-year-old kid that's getting taken down on road to the UFC Padia absolutely pres presents issues and problems so everyone's expecting zong Ru to have gotten that much better but it might be he looks like he's gotten that much better because he's fighting subpar competition now he's coming back in here against Chris Pia who's certainly not a world beater by any stretch but is coming off a quality Victory his last time out he's also got wins over UFC veteran Justin James prior to that you know Split Decision against Darren Smith Jr a 30 fight Regional show veteran had fought Nate Andrews Devin Brock Gabe green another UFC veteran so Christian agier another UFC veteran Jason Gonzalez if you can believe it a UFC veteran it's not like he's very good but you can't fault him for he fights really good guys and zong ru's got 30 Pro fights but has foughten mostly bad guys so if there ever becomes an instance Paul shanesy where you would have taught me something like this you haven't exactly said this exact sentence you've said many many sentences you'll know where I'm going with this you don't bet minus 300 on guys that have lost to kazula Vargas so I'm G take Chris Padilla this is another PRP type long shot play but yeah we see week in and week out some of these crazy plus money guys they shouldn't be that plus money it's just there's a glitch in the system there's an error in The Matrix some of these guys are taking too much action and then they go out there and they get stiffed in the first minute so I think Padilla could maybe utilize grappling Advantage use the wrestling take him down control him if you got a reega choke great BOS baham mandz sub this guy you can do it too if not just win two of the three rounds and survive if need be it's the Apex it's a small little Arena there's not a whole lot of crowd noise this is a great opportunity to take advantage take him down listen to your corner and do what you need to do to neutralize and get the victory so Underdog play here but at minus 300 I just I really couldn't get to zong with that price personally yeah that's pretty similar to where my head was at on I I mean Padilla I was interested in his submission prop it's obviously early in the week so numbers aren't the greatest six plus 600 is the best on Market which I think is like playable but I was hoping for it to be a little bit more generous I guess his last two fights he's won by submission so it's a little bit too obvious at this point but the only submission win or at least UFC submission win for Baja mandz in his career when he took on rangu and one question for you I've been watching this uh this road to the UFC but are these stats on Shin haraguchi real like he had 13 takedowns last time out you had another fight where he had 17 takedowns like how's he takeown well they they even counting as takedowns that's the question right there is that sometimes you'll see in a UFC fight it's like it they won't count it as a takedown because it's like oh he just got up yeah it's a m return right it's like oh the guy got back up you peeled him back down he got back up but you remember those days I'm talking DraftKings first launches and we're drafting Tim Elliott on the team where it's like he he himself can outscore your opponent's entire team because they credited him with just an insane amount of takedowns and takedowns used to score very very heavy right so that rinse and repeat chain wrestling game could yield you 17 takedowns in actuality you have 17 takedowns and four minutes of control time or six minutes of control time and it's like some of these takedowns have yielded nothing right it's just you're keeping the guy guessing dgan if you look at D garan's last fight he maybe had 20 takedowns but he's not going to get credit with 20 because his opponent's constantly getting up and making him work and and just because you knock a guy's balance off and he goes to a knee and now you got a rear waist body lock and he's down on one knee up against the cage and he's down it's not really a take down but I'll tell you what man I watched the fight the guy is shooting a lot of cak downs I just don't know if I'd credit him with 17 of them I mean it's working for morab that's morab entire game is just like you are just defending takedowns at all costs that's like because you're constantly in a state of defense and he's got Limitless cardio you never really get to get off your own offense so um you know morab is a special case he's like weaponized the cardio and that tenacity is it going to work work for uh it doesn't seem like if you're losing to xang may not work for you at this level uh to the to our boy shin anyway we got Ryan Spann vs Ovince Saint Preux the Ryan Superman span taking on ENT St PR we got another minus 300 favorite here code uh OSP can be had for plus uh 250 um OSP it's like rinse and repeat OSP like going into that last fight you're like this guy's wash his durability isn't what it used to be um it hasn't looked good in many many years years and yet had Kennedy and Juku who just you know wasn't able to get them out of there earlier and then and then kind of fell apart um things have not been going great for Ryan for Ryan span you know he's got historically you know half decent power some decent submission skills um most of the fights end pretty quickly but if you can extend them get into round two get into round three the cardio kind of falls off of a cliff I struggle mightily to lay minus 300 on him um do I think OSP is well over the hill yeah do I intend on betting OSP maybe but I can't get the span at minus 300 man the guy's got too many holes in the game too many too many red flags at this point uh what's your take here yeah we got red fles on both sides and so that makes me want to take that plus money on USP as well well when you look at OSP yes 41 years old guy's got a career of college football and then jumps into MMA Strike Force UFC fought Jon Jones five rounds of Jon Jones if you can believe that because apparently that's the goat main thing is osp's been around the block he's got a lot of injuries at 41 now the career is definitely in the rearview mirror like you're kind of getting near that point but 205 is a God awful division heavyweight is a God awful division that 41-year-old is not like that old you're abandon weight it's over you're a light heavyweight you can still find some legs and it seems like OSP found himself able to stay relevant with that win over keny and jacuz last time out the red flags being for him is that yeah here's a guy that went five rounds with Jon Jones once upon a time but is now looking like he's got some suspect durability he got knocked out by Tanner Boer not a great look considering Boer just not a huge power puncher by any stretch then he gets knocked out by Filipe Lind in 49 seconds so I think you know most guys might be able to land that kill shot on OS P at this stage of his career but he still does have something to offer comes in as an underdog against Ken jaku same things we're talking about red flags Chin's not g is gone his trying to move to 205 he's going to heavyweight back down to 205 back to heavyweight mixed results took a grappling match against Andre Petroski at 220 pounds still lost to a middleweight it's not looking good and then the Kennedy fight he did exactly what makes guys effective at 205 which is just stay in the pocket and move forward and throw strikes use all you I thought he looked good man he went a split decision but keep in mind he landed 143 significant strikes plus a knockdown so I thought he did win he looked solid he never stopped throwing and for a 41y old who's a big man to have cardio is very important and that's a good thing about OSP is that he does have decent cardio again he has fought five rounds in the past but he just kind of Paces himself sometimes it looks like he's absolutely tired then you step in and do something and he hits you with a check left hook his win over Alonzo Manfield by knockout it still holds out pretty good his win over Mikey o you know the Von flu got killed in the first round but does have that submission game the Von PR choke I should call it there's things you can like about his game but we can only base these guys on their last fight really in when you get to this stage and in his last fight he proved that he could still do it he does have volume he does have cardio he still does have some power and he's not afraid of mixing it up Ryan span meanwhile he has a ton of red flags too the one thing that OSP has which is that he's still willing to come forward and mix it up with you and can fight three rounds that's the one thing Ryan spin is lacking this guy's got a decent submission game this guy's got some decent striking he's more athletic than OSP he's quicker than him he's more polished he's more refined either he doesn't have a heart or he doesn't have any cardio but one of those two things has been continuously his downfall and I'm talking you can go back to a lot of these fights where it's like just first round finish first round finish first round finish first round finish when he's extended he loses even the Sam Alvi fight he's a six to1 favorite over Sam Alvi wins the first two rounds third round absolutely pass because he never goes to the third round beats Sam Alvi on a on a split decision Split Decision Paul after that first round F finish against Johnny Walker lost first round win over Misha chov first round lost to Anthony Smith first round win over y Caba first round win over Dominic Reyes first round loss Nikita krylo that's where he's at so then he gets Anthony Smith that's a rematch it's a rematch nobody asked for Smith beat him in the first round the last time they rematch Smith wins the first round second round Spen shows a little bit of life he breaks his nose Smith's face is busted he's tired span ends the round on top it's one going into the third oh dude span here's a great opportunity to show that you're not just a one round guy no no no third round absolutely buz he has no cardio and then and then he takes buson Gus Bogdan gusov his fight right after that so if you're not gonna fight Anthony Smith he might as well fight his twin lookalike who's a lot smaller than him the first round he takes down Bogan yeah why wouldn't you the second and he's tired Paul he's gassed and as he's gassed he's forced to stand and as he's forced to stand something partially hits him and as something partially hits him adversity sets and as soon as adversity sets he's at no point in his UFC career ever come back from a bad spot he's never come back from having lost the last round and really needing to win the next one he never comes back from that momentum swing in the other direction and so to me that's the key here for Alin St PR is that St PR just landed 143 significant strikes over Kenyan J and went a full 15 minutes Kennedy is a big man he's fast if not as fast as Ryan span he wants to kickbox he's got better cardio so OSP can do that type of game plan and win over Kennedy he can do that exact same thing here and all he's got to do is literally not get choked out or knocked out in the first round second round span's going to be huffing and puffing he's not going to like the forward pressure he's not going to like the small cage because there's not a whole lot of space to work with he will 100% try to take him down but wrestling is taxing on you and at some point in the second or the third he's Mouse wide open and he drops his hands OSP is going to crush him over with the right hand so the line is everything dude if you flip this line and you tell me osp's a minus 300 it's like what are you talking about span could do this this and this but unfortunately this is where the line is and you have to look at the variables and what does does OSP lose seven out of 10 times eight out of 10 times no I think he wins five out of 10 times it's a 50/50 fight maybe he maybe he wins four out of 10 times okay fair but for this line the implied probability is off and I think OSP could win this fight I think he's going to win this fight I know I got a lot of these big heavy underdogs this week so it's like who becomes the PRP pick but yeah I mean OSP can absolutely knock him out Chris pedia could absolutely take advantage of a wrestling and grappling advantage and uh who's my other under kind a decent other Underdog oh yeah the match n fight against Cody Duran it's like weights why would you bet minus 300 on a guy taking a fight on a week's notice who just just got koed like six weeks ago oh man so many red flags anyways it's not my job to talk about that stuff anymore we're past that fight all I'm saying is that if you're looking if you're one of these guys that's a value play guy you're looking to maybe just only bet three fights on the whole card you're just looking for some of these plus money guys that have a very credible path of Victory can win and are going to pay two to three1 two or three to one on your money back yeah the these are the guys I think they all got a shot and I'll go with another one here for OSP last thing I will say say about the OSP fight is I mean guys with like similar kind of profiles of like first round blasters guys that like take you out early that that he's been able to like withstand you know some of the early Onslaught and then capitalized in round two Alonzo menafield was able to get a second round TKO win against him Michael L shashek he got a second round Von flu choke and um Marcos rerio Del Lima we're going back many years to we're back to but you're right they're all gas bags all gas bags just like if OSP can hang in there tough maybe he's a better you know if you want to be a little bit safer maybe it's like a better BET live wa from you know to potentially if get like beaten down controlled and if you can get out of the first round maybe osps you know that's probably the safer way to do it because if he gets his head knocked off you don't lose any money but uh OSP round two props might be mui pante uh this week what are the prices out there we're looking for them I mean yeah we'll definitely waste some money on that it's like 16 to one 16 to one it's still early in the week that's like the books that like they you'll probably get like 20 to one on an OSP round two prop I'm only human Cody I'm only human I'll definitely be sprinkl no I dude I hear you I think OSP by submission if you can find a crazy number on that I think this is a prime Ryan span loves the guillotine choke it's his favorite submission so if he grabs the guillotine pulls on a g Gillie obiously Pro three times is just passed over to side control puts this massive former you know University of Tennessee shoulder out yeah yeah yeah so because he's not subbed a guy in a long time and you know maybe people are going to say on paper Ryan span as a grappling advantage that you'll get crazy numbers on those types of problem itd probably your best case simply because you could knock him out I think OSP can knock him absolutely starch him or I think he could submit him he could also maybe win a decision which also pays crazy so any OSP winning straight up is already big plus money if you can get a round two or a round three prob an inside the distance prob specifically a k sub or even decision everything is just uh multiplied for sure you get tons of value this is a card with value we just got to get the right on you're you're speaking my language right now I plan to you know lose a whole bunch of money on OSP this week and then watch he'll get absolutely blasted in the first round I'm be like yeah I knew what I was buying into the guy's kind of old and Isaac Dulgarian vs Brendon Marotte watched all right we got Isaac Del dgeren minus 3,000 favorite taking on Brendan morat this didn't happen before Cody like minus 300s at this level of the game like khabib literally never went off against any opponent he talk about Daryl hacher he was like minus a th000 like minus like I know like mathematically like the difference between minus 1,000 and minus 3,000 in terms of like percentage to win isn't all that much but like it shows it's like the the books just don't want to take one-sided action anymore they are like forcing people's hands and frankly like am I going to Marat probably not but um dulgarian got some like red flags and things that like that I wouldn't feel too comfortable with uh with betting this guy I don't think his cardio's all that well he's obviously an absolute Destroyer early in fights he's got good wrestling and he's got um he's got a lot of skills uh tenacity power everything like that don't get me wrong I think he wins but minus 300 I mean there's absolutely no meat on the bone am I going to take the coward's way out I'll pick him I suppose because I have no intention of betting morat I think it is kind of like a get right spot for dgeren but um yeah it would never be me minus 3,000 Cody yeah Dan needed to get mad at the matchmakers and he'd be like why is there a minus 400 favorite on the card like that it's an indication that the fight on paper is not competitive and we all know now minus 400 doesn't mean anything but it's like you don't as you don't want to see these giant favorites as a Matchmaker let me tell you personally you don't want to see a guy as a 10 to one Underdog because it's just poor matchmaking he could pull off an upset we saw crazy one last night at the contender series but as a rule you should be matching those kind of fights so uh yeah the fact that they're okay with putting a minus 3,000 favorite out there there's a very clear and obvious plan of what they're trying to do and that's build back uh build back Isaac dogar the Midwest chop up this guy's legit six and one he's still very young in his career not Young age- wise but young in his MMA career but just wrestling for days cardio for days he pushes a crazy Pace he's been smashing everybody and unfortunately the UFC says how good of a prospect are you let's give you the next Uber Prospect Christian Rodriguez Christian Rodriguez already knocked off um R Rosas so it's like they're just matching up the best kids against each other to seeing which one's going to Prevail he may have got a 108 round in that first round he may have won the second round in other scenario it should have been a draw maybe even a win for delg he tired Russian Rodriguez fought an excellent fight but all the same it was a good learning experience these are all the things he's capable of doing now how can we take all that and spread it out and you know tighten it up and just basically evolve the kids game experience and ring time are going to be the biggest things for him in getting to that next level and so going three rounds with Rodriguez even though it was a tight Split Decision loss it's going to make him a better guy the UFC wants to build him back up so they're going to give him the worst guy in the division and the worst guy of the division happens to be Bron Morant now how did brenon Morant get to the UFC because he's not good he has a lackluster Regional show career he does not fight in the contender series he is a one of those New England cartel guys so I mean he's buddies with Rob fwn he's buddies with Calvin cader and he's buddies with you know uh some of the some of the guys from New England and the east coast in the UFC and that's it they need a guy short notice to put his hand up to come and get beat up by Terence mcken so Brandon morat's the guy they bring Morro in Brandon Morro goes off as a plus 400 Underdog against Terrence mcken he's not expected to do anything and for the record he doesn't he gets knocked down in 20 seconds knee up the middle drops him um right away mckin is on him ground and pound TKO done he's done 20 seconds so what do the UFC do okay thanks for stepping up we're gonna do you one you can fight Muhammad Yaya now this one's interesting Muhammad Yaya is the worst guy of the division he's from Abu Dhabi they would love to put him on those cards in Abu Dhabi the thing is the dude got sadly out wrestled and out grappled by Peak he's no good he's absolutely no good so they're sending morat there to build up Yaya hopefully knowing that morat is the worst guy in the division and morat pulls out and when you're the worst guy and you pull out against the second worst guy the rebooked fight is always against some absolute killer because you are of no use to them anymore if you're reliable you'll show up and take your Beating that's great if you're going to be pulling out yeah we'll just throw you to whoever's available you shouldn't be in the UFC first of all this is uh it's my dream to tell my buddies I fight in the UFC and get paid 10 grand great then he's living out his dream and that's the only thing he's getting from this he's going to get slaughtered you can't do anything on minus 3,000 sure so you'll go dgar by TKO you'll take the under one and a half you may even take a dgeren by first round TKO prop but he is going to absolutely smash him into Oblivion the only thing that would cause dgeren to maybe hit that over one and a half to maybe not get out of the first round is if he was like oh dude I wrestled too hard last time I think I'm going to Pace myself which he's not going to do he 10ed Rodriguez you think morat's going to take a 108 and keep going he smashed Francis Marshall in one round you think morat's going to take that kind of thrashing and get out of there no way dude no way I can't parlay a d Garen by first round knockout with all of my other stuff because you can't be Pro like you can't parlay those type of problems just can't too much risk but I mean think about this thing logically in what world does Brendon Mora Escape some of them will say well he's not that chinny you know he had never been finished adley adwards is a wrestler completely dominated him on the ground John Duma was a Jiu-Jitsu guy completely dominated on the ground he's not that chinny Terence mckin took him out 22s W Terence mckin is just crazy explosive and knocks dudes out yeah that is true dogan's going to take him down and get on top of him pass guard and smash him maybe takes his back maybe chokes him out maybe just flattens him out and keeps punching him in the head until the ref has mercy so I think dgan just wrecks this guy that's all I got to say about it story checks out all right we Andre Lima vs Felipe Dos Santos got Andre Lima taking on Felipe dos Santos Andre a minus 180 favorite do Santos can be had for plus 155 at the beginning of the show I think it was in my brain cuz like Frank I made a bet on Felipe do Santos and then when I started doing a little bit more research I'm like taken down nine times by Victor ala Morano I'm like what are you doing here Fair as fair is that I mean Andre Lima isn't much of a wrestler in his own R I think he's like a you know maybe a better technician I don't know if the VA s there for him in the Striking department and we both were on srino and was looking pretty good as we got into um you know into round two until he bit him and then lost his job and then there's all the Han Lector memes and everything like that but I don't know I'm not big on on this Lima guy I think he kind of got to prominence because of the result of his first official UFC fight a fight that I looked like to me that he was starting to lose and I was interested to see how that fight was going to play out obviously srino was able to mix in the grappling a little bit uh he had five takedowns I believe but um so obviously that changes the dynamic of the fight a little bit but I don't know if this fight kind of plays out like a manell cop versus Felipe dos Santos and both of these guys spend time on the feet almost exclusively I don't know he had like a 100 like nearly maybe a little bit more than 100 I don't have the exact stat in front of me right this second he had 99 significant strikes against manell cop that fight was you know he's a big Underdog there and he and he held his own quite well the takedown defense is obviously a big concern but Lima isn't much of a wrestler in his own right and at least he got taken down nine times but he kept getting back up and he got taken down six out of seven times in round one the takedown defense for Andre Lima is obviously a massive problem but at least he's got a get up game and then he had way less takedowns um you know to be had less control time in rounds two and three uh last time out against Alta Morano the stats would lead you to believe it was a a bit of a you know when you factor in control time obviously it looked like a uh you know like a robbery against al alter Morano but I don't know I I'm gonna not focus too much on that matchup obviously the the takedown defense is a big time problem but I think this kid's got a lot of skill and at plus 155 in this division actually I I got plus 165 not the 10 10 points really changes all that much but at this division a guy that may have more volume I don't know I think it's a def decent look what's your take here yeah I actually got to santz as well I'm not going to disagree with that I 125 yeah you're right if you can get plus money at 125 already you're off to a good start um but with Andre Lima you you keep bringing up flea Des Santos questionable take down defense that shouldn't even be a problem here Lima's a striker he's straight up a striker likes his leg kicks loves his power punches I don't see him pursuing a wrestling heavy game plan even if he was to do that that would be in do Santos's favor because as you mentioned great get up game and it's going to cause Lima to work that is going to be the key to this Victory when you look at lian's record there's been a bunch of these spots where uh eigor taon LFA this is last year 2023 he misses weight at 127 lbs so he missed weight by one pound he is losing the fight he's losing his opponent gases out he wins he didn't look all that good and he mwe okay now we're going to look at this rickon zenim fight third round he's tired okay not a big deal now we look at that eigor srino fight you had a SE srino ticket I had a srino ticket did you not feel pretty decent about it till he dud like what man you're winning oh a but there's a language barrier and loss in communication they said there's a fight of the night bonus he heard there's a bite of the night bonus and he decided to go after it so like damn dude but but what I'm getting at is in his two prior LFA fights Miss weight in one of them kind of looked like he was tiring out in both of them okay srino fight till he got bit it l they were fighting a hell of a pace dude but it looked like he was getting tired then his last fight against MRA poso he misses weight he comes in at 130 so this is twice in the last four fights that he's missed weight one time at 127 one time at 130 in the reposo fight he wins H shouldn't have been a split decision dude it should have been unanimous all day long but it's just because of the leg kicks he's leg kicking Roso Roso is gimping around on it and then that's it just leg kicks so you go back to his Contender series fight against um zenim he only lands 61 significant strikes in 15 minutes against Zino seino it was a disqualification but he's getting out struck 35 to30 up until that point and he's slowing down against Roso 15 minutes Roso took the fight he was the third opponent change so he's coming in on a week's notice and you missed weight against him even though he's on short notice you're five pounds more you land 51 significant strikes against a one leged guy on short notice so he knows he's got bad cardio and he's not looking to exert himself he's not looking to throw 100 significant strikes he's not looking to land that type of of volume he's not looking to mix in wrestling long term because he's a natural Striker and wrestling as a game plan is going to be extremely exhausting to a guy like that so what do you have you have a very slick a polished Striker with a heavy leg kick game that doesn't throw a ton of volume if he doesn't land this KO in the first or second round he's going to slow down he's going to fatigue to say that he is a a minus 180 favorite I mean to me it's just crazy when I think about D santz I think all about the stuff you're saying right cop he lands 99 cop is like a top five flyweight cop just arguably beat makv in the worst fight you've ever seen in your life but like foot and yeah and just like you you can't hit this guy he's quick he's got he's got nine toes that are operating right now and he's still fast as a cat so to land that in your UFC deut is impressive now you get the Victor alaro this is what people don't realize they'll ah dude he got digging down nine times and it was a questionable split decision and all these things here's the only thing I remember and I had to Santos thank God we got that one the fight was at Mexico City Paul it's like the highest elevation they've ever gone to the first round Al Morano takes him down he loses the second round is super close man he landed the better shots than Al Morano but he did get taken down the third round alt morono who is Mexican is completely gassed out and that is the best round of the fight for Felipe dos Sanz is the third round he undeniably wins the third round and the reason he gets a split loses the first wins the third what happened in the second two guys give it to him Pats a Mexican fighter in Mexico City up at elevation and his third round is his best trapped so I got a guy that I know could land 100 significant strikes he did it against a top five flyweight and I know he can fight a hard 15 minutes and his takedown defense is not great but his Jiu-Jitsu is obviously good enough to keep getting back up making you work and you're gonna give me and it's a Flyway fight oh [ __ ] it's a flyweight fight and you're gonna give me him as the underdog oh twist my arm some more why don't you I'm in on Anderson do Santos as well I like it Paul Felipe dos Santos not Anders yeah sorry yeah Anderson dos Santos got a long time ago uh Felipe yeah sorry Felipe do Santos so many Brazilians with so many names and all of the names are always the same pretty similar but yeah yeah I you're you're seeing the same thing I'm seeing which is even if you do get taken down make them work come forward use the volume make this just a scrap and if we can have this thing one-1 going into the third I would feel so good about it if you can get a good log of betting price maybe he loses the first maybe the second's very tight very contentious and you can get a very good number on it and then the third round he's going to shine especially against an opponent like fipe Lima who I fully expect to Tire last but not least watch for weighin fipe Del Lima has missed weight in two of his last four fights last time at 130 if he has a bad we cut and his cardio is going to be even more compromised take take do Santos baby we're yeah I'm I'm kind of surprised this week Cody we're on a lot of the same underdogs with a lot of the same ideas about this it's either we're either getting rich this week or um or it's going to be very very painful um like there was a bunch of bunch of things here that I was just like yeah there's yeah Cody's going to have like a good argument for like why I shouldn't bet this Underdog and you've been like I agree and I just like oh boy it's going to get expensive down in the Apex this week hopefully hopefully this is this is the week it'd be a big week to spike um because yeah there's a lot of plus money that I love uh there's four more fights and my Gabriel Santos vs Yizha interest starts to bleading around here in this card uh we got Gabriel Santos taking Ona Gabriel Santos is a minus 260 favorite yah can be had for plus 220 am I pronouncing yah correct Cody it could be yah I don't know like you said interest depleting we'll just rip through it with basic numbers here yija is rocking a 59% takedown defense he's fought on two seasons of road to UFC he got to the finals last time this time eventually did get through um he's lived by the wrestling die by the wrestling you'll see a lot of these fights he'll he takes down kyomi matsum Misha six times and he also got taken down five times he took down uh Sun Kim twice he he got taken down once he's very high heavily reliant on the wrestling likes to wrestle likes to wrestle likes to wrestle a lot of these times it's close he's not Landing a whole lot of damage is that he's constantly just wrestling his opponent's face off he's going to be one of these serviceable guys that can make a striker look bad because he's just neutralizing the position I just don't think I'm very high on again he gets a lot of takedowns but he's giving up a bunch of them Gabriel Santos is just getting a bad beat UFC debut against Lon Murphy luron Murphy's legit Lon Murphy just beat Edson Barbosa in a headlining fight he took him down five times still landed almost 70 significant strikes in the UK enemy territory against Lon Murphy a fan favorite and he got a split decision loss out of it so that's a debut the kids got a promising future then the David onama fight interesting so he takes down David onama twice and he wins the first round in all the scorecards the second round onama starts to unload on him with is these heavy shots nasty uppercut I don't think he gassed I think he was hurt and his body language as such was just deflated because he's her and so David onama who's actually a quality opponent takes him out that's fine I think his wrestling is pretty good five takedowns on L Murphy two on David onama that means something to me I think he takes YSA down I think he has a better chance of holding him down I think in the Apex with a full fight camp and it's a 15-minute fight I think you should be able to neutralize them for two of those three rounds and if it doesn't end up being a wrestling match which it's going to be he's got far better striking as well so he's got a plan B to fall back on I don't love it simply because you got a guy in yu that's only going to wrestle and make it greasy and you got a guy in Santos that I think is actually the better wrestler and better Grappler but maybe has a cardio issue makes it tough to get a lean but Gabriel Santos I I take Gabriel Santos it is what it is you're just gonna have to bite the bullet on it for me personally I got other underdogs I like y ain't one of them I mean yeah Gabriel Santos came in as a 10 and0 10 and0 Prospect everything's looking good you watch the regional tape and you're like this guy actually looks like he's going to cause a problem then he runs into I mean lone Murphy he probably should have won that Split Decision um but it was over in England so you got a little bit of you know the Yorkshire pudding smeared on that one and then um and then onama is an absolute gangster so uh really two tough fights to get into the UFC sometimes they'll cut people after two fights but obviously this is kind of like uh you got to prove it now for him so I think he's a rightful favorite at Jaqueline Amorim vs Vanessa Demopoulos minus 260 as well we got jacalene amarim taking on Vanessa Demopolis amarim is a minus 300 favorite demopoulos can be had for plus 250 demopoulos loves you know probably losing relatively close fights and then the judges like gifting her uh some of them some of them decisions she's probably pretty clearly giving up you know jiujitsu skills here can she keep the fight standing make this close and competitive close and competitive enough that she gets get gift gifted another decision here Cody that's that's kind of where my where I'm wondering what to do with this fight yeah well if you're asking me I'm gonna say exactly that I think uh we taking another dog yeah I'm another dog here Vanessa deop Vanessa deop has proven at this point that just better especially if she's plus money as the underdog she can't lose either she wins the fight on her own Merit and you win or she loses the fight and her opponent's better than her and you still win so in the last konako murada and Emily ducot combined you can go on like MMA decisions and they give you all the like the media members between those two fights it's something like 30 media members have voted on it only three had those fight's going to demopoulos it's outrageous nobody thinks she wins but she's a former stripper and this judge is like oh [ __ ] she's gonna tell my wife what can I do to rectify this 2928 you deal done did you win the 2928 no but you don't want this girl going and telling your wife you went into some ratchet tupes on Arizona nightclub oh my God I got two kids and a dog so Vanessa de you got some leverage on them what I'm saying is if you can't knock her out which former stripper can take a hell of a shot to the mouth no one's knocking her out and then yeah she's also BJJ Blan Bel she's competed at some high level tournaments and she's got some decent wins so submitting her is a is a massive problem as well basically finishing her in a nutshell not going to happen never been finished so now you need to put the pace on her and at work her and it's hard to do that because she got these little T-Rex arms but she just swings boy she got solid cardio she can fight 15 minutes her wrestling's not very good but she's so hard-nosed like a little bull terrier constantly coming forward on you you can't shake her I'm going to admit I scored their last two fights against her but it's not like I'm sitting at home thinking like is this easy like she's making them work dude and Emily DTI is legit former ined champ College wrestler solid technical boxing very close fight I thought D Cody won but no vessa deas is constantly moving forward making her work having some good rounds having some good moments her fight with Mor the entire time she's off her back she's constantly throwing up volume and there's the other thing you look at her taked down defense it's listed at 30% it's like wof that's bad but really it's just kako marado marado took her down five times on six attempts outside of that who's taking her down Cory McKenna on a contender series episode and JJ Aldridge JJ Aldridge want takedown didn't do anything with it JJ Aldridge fights out 125 bigger than Vanessa whatever outside of that it's like I don't think your Tak down defens is as bad as the numbers would suggest her Brazilian Jitsu black Bel is credible she has pace for days arguably she's a better wrestler than jacine Amarin she's a better Striker than amarim she got better cardio than amm she's going to throw more more volume than amm she constantly moves forward and last but not least when she fights in the Apex they love screwing her opponents so man honestly I think there's a lot to go here now now you say okay okay let's just stop talking Vanessa demop automatic spam win ha haa tell me about jacqu amam there's not a whole lot like there to be honest her striking is not very good her wrestling is not very good she's got good Jiu-Jitsu her UFC debut against Sam Hughes she got Sam Hughes down twice couldn't hold her down ended up gassing out and got out struck 45 to2 against Sam Hughes we'll give her a pass because it's a UFC debut but losing to Sam Hughes like that getting smoked the last two rounds 12 significant strikes you got takedowns and couldn't do anything with it it's Troublesome then she gets monat Ruiz okay mon Ruiz is not any good we know that she gets the takedown on Ruiz she dominates it still takes her to the third round and gets a finish I don't really rate that win all that high and then her fight with Cory McKenna pretty sweet Cory McKenna gets the takedown and Jaclyn amarim throws up the armor so effectively her takedown accuracy is 23% she's taking down two opponents being Sam Hughes and she lost and monster Ruiz once where she couldn't get a whole lot done with it and then couldn't got taken down by mcken and got the arm so women have armar from g i get it against Vanessa deop arm from guard that's not going to happen right if you're getting taken yeah if think I'm G to play guard off my back it's not gonna happen dog it's not gonna happen you're not arming her off your back so you need to take her down although I'm thinking Vanessa's wrestling could be good enough to take Amar down if that happens and you've got Vanessa on top Vanessa wins right if the fight does not hit the ground and it's just a striking about it Vanessa wins the only situation she loses if she gets taken down by jacqulyn Amar constantly all three rounds Amar sets up shop on top am avoids the submission attempts am gr and pounder makes it look good in that scenario Vanessa debl still wins because I don't know why Paul shauny but the judges are in love with it kind of like that movie with Richard Gear pretty woman I I don't know what's going on but obviously there's something going on that I don't know about so sign me up for deesa Demopolis it's a great breakdown there's some lines in there that you may when you put it up onto YouTube you may want to uh or when you put it up onto uh to fight Network you may want to uh to cut it out the YouTube people people on YouTube hour and 10 minutes Paul only hour and 10 minutes yeah so after that that's why that spicy breakdown was there the line the line about shots to the mouth I mean had me cackling what was that was that was that over the edge I felt like that was a witty enough line no it was it was very witty but you know we live in 2024 people are getting canceled left right and Center um is what it is the best thing I try to avoid the people who may potentially cancel me these days you know cancel culture people don't tend to watch our show or MMA programming in general our our fan base the people are getting to you know fight 11 of 13 on UFC Vegas 97 probably more likely to be cancelled than to be the people doing the cancelling but you know I guess we'll Andre Petroski vs Dylan Budka find out uh all right we got Andre Petroski taking on Dylan budka minus 270 for Petroski budka could be had for plus 230 like my quick thoughts on this is like usually you know we talk about pety we talk about him gassing out and I and like you know he's got solid grappling he's been able to hold on to that even though he's looks super super tired he's been able to kind of muscle through it in round three in a few fights so on and so forth luckily for him in this matchup we're looking at Dylan budka who against Caesar Almeida 100% tried to play that grapple game tried to you know hold down a guy who frankly Almeida went into his next fight and uh against kopov and was just constantly getting taken down over overcontrolled so the fact that budka wasn't able to do that against that level of opponent with that type of deficiency I think it negates a lot of what Andre struggles with in this game do I feel great about laying minus 270 on Andre Andre Petroski no probably pretty much never but like this is kind of a perfect matchup for him in my opinion to get back on track so patoski is the pick for me what about you yeah I got to go p as well and that's a a bit of a rarity for me not like I bet against patosi every time I he's not my kind of guy you know a guy that I do believe slows down his wrestling and his jiujitsu as his goto but again at times he's had bad opponents down and hasn't been able to do much with it he's low volume on his feet you he's jacked up he's American guy with a hammer and a sickle tattoo on him and that tells you everything you need to know about his ring IQ he not the kind of guy that I really all that much like uh the Jacob malcon fight he knocks himself out with a blast double leg you can't really trust him there's just things I don't like is that this match up with budka actually looks quite good I mean we know Petros is a guy solid College wrestler at a cown university um BJJ black Bel buka the quite literally the only thing he has going for him is he wrestled out of Notre Dame College in Ohio that's it his striking is not very good his cardio's iffy and he can wrestle Petroski petros's cardio's iffy but proven you know I think it's a little bit better than bukas his striking is better than bukas his wrestling is as good and his jiujitsu better so I I honestly do feel like similar to the Josh FM fight Josh frm had wrestled at a Slippery Rock University he had some CLE wrestling he had some on paper better striking and better cardio than um Andre Petroski Petroski finds ways to neutralize his opponents he has finds ways that nobody's Landing anything but he's in a favorable position he can get takedowns when he wants them he's great got a great uh series with the front headlock he likes to switch to a guillotine switch to a Dar choke a lot of is just snapping down his opponent breaking their base down constantly putting some pressure on them so I I like Petroski in an entertaining way you know some fun fights I just don't know that he's a guy that I'd be looking to trust at all butka meanwhile I never really liked him he comes out of a gym in Ohio called demolition fight team it's no disrespect to them they got like 30 guys 30 40 guys that fight out of the gym none of them are good butka is the number one guy in fact nobody in that gym has got 10 Pro wins the number two rank guy in that gym is seven and 10 and then a pile of young kids and amateurs that's his gym and they're them to step up that you see them fill a lot of fights across the United States short notice guys guys that are coming to lose like that's where he's training I don't think he's getting marginally all that better you watch him on LFA he fights for the title against this osot bov ends up losing a split decision a nice win over Wes Schultz can't say he would do that again if they rematched but this Chad hancom fight in the contender series how do you get a contract off that how does torren finny not get a contract in the UFC how does that Medina guy that loses that Colombian fool how does this guy how do these guys get signed when a real Prospect like finny doesn't that's to mean with budka budka fought Chad hanom it's a bad fight man he takes hanom down and he holds him down that's it he lands three takedowns and uh sorry two takedowns and 22 significant strikes and he wins he just grounds him that's it holds him down that's fair very next fight against Caesar ala he tries to do the same thing he had three takedowns and one strike landed one strike landed through almost round and a half right it was seven minutes and 13 seconds into the fight he had landed one punch three takedowns on a Brazilian kickbox are great that's it he's not doing anything with it he's not trying to pass he's not trying to submit you he's not trying to ground and pound you he's just trying to take you down it's a style that people don't enjoy watching I enjoy watching if you're at the highest level if you're a Usman or a George champier or khabib MOG manov great those guys are taking you down and dominating you these guys are taking you down and holding you so why Dana would sign him off the contender Series so he could try to hold down a guy I don't know but interestingly they say Okay Caesar Alida is a kickboxer with zero wrestling so let's give him a wrestler with zero kickbox and it's budka and what happens second round he puts his head up against the cage two short elbows he folds like a cheap tent okay fair against Petroski if he can't just rely on his wrestling the entire fight he's gonna get knocked out if he's forced to stand he'll get outworked or get knocked out if the fight does hit the ground petros's on top world of [ __ ] if he's able to take down Petroski and neutralize him it makes it interesting but it's not like Petros is a fish out of water in a straight up wrestling match and if this thing gets to a second or gets to a third I've seen patoski huffing and puffing with his hands on his side and then knock a fool out or sitaa I've seen him do it crap opponents like zoo or Michael Gilmore sure but at least he's pulled through in the third round if need be whereas I I can't say the same thing against Dylan budka he's fought five rounds for LFA that's a feather in his cap besides that he seems like a 24-year-old kid who's not left the confines of a small gym he has not made improvements to his overall game he's very vocal on Twitter about calling people out and almost every guy he calls out would smash him senseless so I'm hoping that Petroski gets the job done here but again two wrestlers with lackluster cardio you're asking for it it's so early on the card you can rebuild I don't want to rebuild if I don't have to so I will pay Petroski but Nathan Fletcher vs Zygimantas Ramaska I got to Tamper my expectations a little bit all right uh finally we got Nathan Fletcher taking on Ziggy mantis rasa uh Fletcher minus 14 favorite raasa can be had for plus 120 this fight was supposed to be on the card what two weeks ago um Fletcher I believe had some sort of ailment that he had to pull out of this fight they rebook it for two weeks later rasco was like plus 140 when I had bet him before obviously that's been voided now I feel like it would be considering futcher was the one who had to pull out on fight day I'm sure it was nothing too serious if they're flipping it turning it back around um in one day but still kind of like a bit strange um they've obviously shortened the price a little bit here but uh I'm not going to get off of rasa at least as my as my pick here what about you yeah I kind of am thinking I am gonna flip ship and this is the crazy thing we broke down somewhat broke down these Fight n not this one particular but two weeks ago when it was the tough finale we didn't have any info randomly took the wrestler guy because you knew he could wrestle in college and that's all took ball and then the other one that mayun Santos he look he beat the number one guy so therefore he is the number one guy and he looked awesome there was little effort or thought process put into them and both guys exceedingly did awesome and were both well priced so when when when I had last time out I had raasa on the same thing I didn't think about it very much I just take raasa plus 140 I like it now I got rebooked and I actually looked at it because I looked at it I'm overthinking it and because I'm overthinking it I'm flipping to Nate Fletcher when I look at rasa raasa is like he's a badass Striker dude he likes to throw volume he likes to stay active he's just throwing crazy techniques big kicks I mean Lithuania as a country they do produce some good kickboxers some good Strikers and he has that where they do lack is their wrestling and their grappling rasa is exactly that you look at his losses his losses are generally when he's taken down and guy's got better ji Jitsu better wrestling than him time and time again when he stands with these guys that are salty 10- 10 records yeah he can knock him out he gets bad Usama uh usmanov sorry on the on the ultimate fighter he ends up winning a third round majority decision good fight solid fight usanov was moving up a away class to come on the show so he's a small guy as such he wasn't really able to use his wrestling all that much it a close fight but he wasn't able to get it going then rasa had taken enough injuries in that fight that they wouldn't medically clear him to fight another fight in the house so that's why his run ended they're giving him Nate Fletcher he didn't really lose on the show so we'll bring you back and Nate Fletcher they like he lost on the show legitimately but they like the guy he lost to end up making it to the finals that offley Keen offley who got smoked but all the same you know at least he lost to a finalist but beyond that they like this kid because he's Patty holan's buddy like right in with them Patty the baddy these guys they're they're grapple heavy Fighters this kid's a good Grappler you look at his fight with Dominic wooding it's his only Pro loss and uh he's winning the first two rounds he's taking him down he's controlling him the third round he gasses he gasses and he ends up getting booted lops side the head by Dominic wooding who's very fast explosive you know High powerered Striker but you can see where he's at his best but yeah young kid needs cardio needs to be worked on um since then he's come back with a pair of wins over eight- one opponents got the decision one of them shows his grappling with a triangle choke fights keen and awfully unfortunately doesn't get the better end of it but I do feel like him at his best is he's a Grappler just like Patty he's going to try to force his hand force him up against the cage get him to the ground and that's where he should shine at his best raasa is a better kickboxer this thing stays a kickboxing match raasa edges him out if you can get plus money on on rasa not a terrible look if you can get plus money on raasa and you know it's going to stay standing even better I just feel like Fletcher probably in the last three years since the wooding fight did enough to shore up his cardio has that wrestling Advantage has that grabbing Advantage probably just takes Ras down and neutralizes him the one little tiny thing is a g dude he pulled out of a fight with h sickness two weeks ago so now they rebook it and I'm sure he's healthier now and all that but like what was the sickness and furthermore I need you to fight a strong 15 minutes I can't have you have a good first round a good round and a half almost submit him and then fall apart and so maybe if cardi was a question mark to begin with and you know that he's just coming off a sickness allthough that makes it like a little bit little bit hesitancy to jump behind Fletcher as well so on other episodes I may just call it a dog or pass and take raasa on this episode I got a lot of dogs I'm not forcing them they're dogs that I like when I look at this fight I'm not forcing an underdog I got to take the guy that I like based on this style Clash I got a high output Striker versus a solid Grappler those Grappler usually wins those fights if he's effective I'm hoping he is so yeah I don't know sign me up for Nate Fletcher uh in a fun fight right a curtain jerk fight and if my guy was to lose I wouldn't have to rebuild because I'm not going to have that much invested in if the PRP hits this week Cody we're buying like we're not even buying like property we're buying like a small nation the books better be damn scared it's going to be a lot of uh you know landmines and everything like that but there's so much plus money um it's going to be absolutely epic so I hope you hit the PRP PRP this week because we'll be rich hit them with it well I'll hit I'll hit them with it right now we're gonna go with Gilbert Burns and and just for the record it's a 13 fight card okay if you've got 12 in a row and it's coming down to Gilbert I can't say it cuz I put the end on the fight and everything it comes down to the last fight and you're see with the Gill bursting just hedge man but now we're going to take K Prince we're gonna take Natalia Silva we're gonna take Kyle Nelson as dog number two we are going to take Trevor Peak we're gonna take Chris Padilla Ain s PR we got four dogs now uh alac doarian Felipe dos Santos dog number five Gabriel Santos Vanessa demopoulos dog number six Andre Petroski and Nate Fletcher and then uh bet online oh yeah maybe they'll let you parlay right now sorry I had it over on Bow Dog because but online maybe they're just doing it to me or you can write in the comment section they're doing it to you but like they're not letting you parlay things until like day of now uh I just want to see what the exact I mean I just clicked on Petroski andarine not that I want to do that but that a UFC it's a UFC so that that would make sense I I clicked on bow doog just to avoid but bodog doesn't have the match null fight listed I just want to see what the PRP would pay this week because it'll be crazy uh UFC Petroski demopoulos Santos dos Santos doarian OSP Padia Peak um Schnell oh man yeah Kyle it's going to be ridiculous you take natal you took Natalia Silva okay and Gil burs and Gilbert burns on a parlay it's paying you plus 467 732 so a uh a $100 parlay would pay you $467,000 but bet online caps you at like 220 or $240 let me see what the exact cap is on for you 7 no they wouldn't let you put 75 that bet well that's only a 12 team par cuz I don't think um it's actually more Cody cuz that's only a 12 because uh because the are they the Schnell fight is too new for them to add that to oh man and the schnell's an underdog okay yeah I mean the bottom line is we got some good news and some bad news the good news is if the parlay hits this week life-changing would be understatement the bad news is if the parlay hits this week this is actually the final show for Paul and Sh no the final show forever let's real it' be the fin for R fall um so you know part of me hopes it doesn't hit the other part of me hopes maybe this is the last show ever but you have to factor in that you're going to be hedging for like your you're going to be like pulling your house you're going to be calling up Dave Mason and being like hey man I've got a house uh just outside of Toronto here uh can you put that on uh on who's the main can you put that on Sean Brady it'll be like AB absolutely not but yeah no I mean it feels like there's lots of money to be made here this week but obviously I mean a lot of these fights we like them because they're plus 250 and they should probably be like 6040 in terms of like you know win probability and stuff like that's how we're kind of seeing it maybe we're dead wrong maybe we're dead right hopefully we get rich but that is it for us this week hope you enjoyed the show for producer Jared and Cody saf dick I'm Paul Shan toy saying goodbye good luck [Music] [Applause] [Music]