JUST IN: Typhoon Shanshan Now A Tropical Storm—But Threats Remain To Japan, Says AccuWeather

[Music] hi everyone I'm Maggie McGrath with Forbes breaking news a typhoon has made landfall in Japan and millions of people are under evacuation orders here to explain more about this situation is Jason Nichols he's ACU weather's lead International forecaster Jason thank you so much for being here great to be here so tell us about this typhoon and I understand just within the last few hours it's actually been downgraded to a tropical storm what do we need to know here yeah that's uh that's right it it came in a Shore earlier on Thursday in Kyushu um as a category 2 hurricane equivalent uh wind gust to 120 miles per hour is now that it's moved over land is since weekend or lost wind intensity now it's down to a tropical storm uh the main threat going forward now now that the winds are kind of subsided the main threat is going to be Heavy Rain especially with the system start expected to slow it looks like it's moving gradually East northeastward to East northeastward but at some point I think um Friday night or Saturday it's going to stall and kind of sit in the same area for maybe 24 36 hours before the next front comes along and finally picks it up and pushes it uh off the east coast of of hu probably early next week probably I'm guessing some point later Tuesday at this point later Tuesday so that's that's an extended period but let's just I want to go back to those wind speeds that you mentioned how high had the wind gotten and how how strong are the gusts right now uh right now the strongest gust are somewhere in the vicinity of hurricane force uh which is about 75 miles per hour there could be on some of the elevated areas where there maybe observations a little more sparse um probably up at up of 80 mph but uh at its peak as it was starting to move across the northern Ruku Islands it got to a category 4 hurricane equivalent which gave you a gust to 140 150 miles per hour but fortunately by the time it made landfall on Kyushu on Thursday it had run into some drier air some stronger wind shear so it it lost some wind intensity by the time it finally made that landfall on Kyushu uh earlier on Thursday local time okay so that was the wind and what about rainfall I've seen numbers like 60 cm which is two feet of water how much rain is falling on the ground in Japan right now um NW main landfall there's been widespread amounts of 1 to two feet of rain like 12 to 24 Ines uh even some local amounts uh approaching 3 feet like 36 in 33 34 I think is the highest I saw uh so far um as the system moves Eastward very slowly I think we could continue to see just due to the fact that it looks like it probably stalls for a time over the course of the weekend we could see areas maybe as far east as around Osaka getting 12 maybe 24 inches of rain um with the system especially if it slows and and stalls in the area for 24 36 hours what does this system mean for people on the ground in Japan what are the communities right now that should be on alert or evacuating can you break down for us the the human aspect here uh big thing um big thing is widespread flooding uh life-threatening flooding with the rain amounts we've been talking about or we're talking of rainfall in feet instead of inches um so life-threatening flooding it's mostly across Southwest Japan caush um Southwest honu that area maybe as far east as osak I think eventually we'll get some rain into like the Tokyo area but nothing like what they saw with the typhoon a few weeks ago um in Tokyo I think by the time they get everything's all said and done with the rainfall from the typhoon it's probably like two to four inches of rain uh from that system but the heavier rains will be to their West and kind of in the southwest Japan area uh where the system is going to be very slow moving and maybe even stall for a bit so heavier rain in the west and the southwest of Japan 2 to 4 Ines in the Tokyo area I I imagine that the instructions for people differ on where they live right so is the Southwest under evacuation and folks in the Tokyo area just being told to sandbag or reinforce their Windows what's the difference there I'm going to guess the evacuations are closer to where it made landfall across Southwest Japan uh where the heaviest of the rain has been so far and the strongest winds have been so far I think farther east probably taking precautions um as the rain mounts will be lighter and the wind should not be as big of a factor uh but uh I still wouldn't let my guard down if I was in the Tokyo area because uh maybe the system comes a little bit farther south and it's maybe as little slower moving maybe could be even higher rain amounts depending on exactly uh where the center tracks so we've been talking about typhoon and you mentioned hurricane winds and I just want to pull back a little bit here in Northeast we talk about hurricanes all the time this time of year what is the difference between a typhoon and a hurricane uh just the naming convention s semantics more or less typhoon is the same thing if you had a a math equation typhoon equals hurricane it's just in the West Pacific they call them typhoons in the uh East Pacific Central and East Pacific and in in the Atlantic they're referred to as hurricanes now Jason you mentioned the typhoon that hit the Tokyo area a few weeks ago what can you say about typhoon season so to speak are we at the height of it right now and how is the activity this year comparing to Prior years uh yeah we're in the peak part of the hurricane U or typhoon season I should say in the West Pacific It generally runs uh from June to through September October time period uh right now we were below average through July I think we've gotten a little bit more active here in August we're still uh we're probably closing in on normal but a lot of the systems have been on the weaker side um especially well in it the exception being Shan Shan here um did get to a major hurricanes equivalent um still no super typhoons though in the West Pacific which is a little unusual um for as compared to normal what is a super typhoon uh wind sustained winds over 140 miles per hour and how many super typhoons do we typically see in a year uh generally about maybe I think the average is around four and we should have had at least one by now and the closest we've gotten is uh I think we've had a couple get to category four wow normally way more than what we've seen this year what's the cause for this difference uh a lot of of it has to do with some um ocean water temperatures of some cooler than normal ocean water temperatures in the Central Pacific also some cooler Waters in the uh uh Northwest Pacific uh as well which is kind of shift at the main Development Area instead of being uh maybe more towards Guam in that area it's been pushed a little bit more Westward so it's been more favored a lot of the development has been favored more towards the Philippine Sea uh and a little bit farther north as well um we've seen a lot of the development probably north of north of the Philippines and and to the and to the west of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands so that's that's a change from what we saw last year Guam got hit a few times last year they've yet to be been hit by a tropical system at this point so far this year and I don't know if that's going to change uh looking at the ocean I was just about to ask about those ocean temperatures because we hear so often at least on the East Coast about warming ocean temperatures how rare is it within the context of the last five six seven years for ocean water to get cooler uh we had that with linia last uh last well not last year the uh previous few years there was a lot of cooling in the Central and Eastern Pacific because of the wind flow leaving leading to cooler ocean water temperatures due to upwelling um that's kind of re that reverse last year and we had some warming with alino and now we're kind of trying to transition to linia uh again that's resulted in some cooling across the central equ the Central and Eastern equatorial Pacific but we still have a lot of warm water farther west and I think that's part of the reason why we've seen a lot of development a little bit closer to um Eastern Asia leading to a little bit more impacts because a lot of the really warm waters are Philippine Sea South China Sea East China Sea uh so off of Eastern off of Eastern China off of the Philippines and off of uh Japan interesting so you have what is you said upwellings that's basically the cooler water from the bottom getting to the top but then there's still warm water further in the west that's causing tropical systems yeah basically upwelling is you're taking you're the wind is kind of pushing the more Waters near the surface away and allowing the cooler Waters underneath to rise up to the surface uh so you had the right idea there yeah now let's go back to ACU weather's forecast for Japan and the regions affected by this typhoon now tropical storm over the next few days what can folks on the ground expect on Friday Saturday Sunday Monday I know you mentioned Tuesday as a potential end date so take us through each day okay so very heavy rains will likely continue across Southwest Japan through at least uh Sunday with the system like I said probably stalling somewhere in the vicinity of Osaka not exactly right over them but in that General vicinity I think it it gets to near Osaka on Saturday and it just kind of stews there for for a bit before finally getting kicked out um so daily rainfalls going to be several inches to maybe a foot or more uh and in the area where it sits and actually kind of stalls I think that's probably where you get your heaviest rain where you'll probably see one to two feet of rain um before it finally exits uh the region anything else we should know about typhoon Shan how do how do you pronounce it h shanan I believe is I looked up the pronunciation before anything else we should know about this typhoon now tropical storm that I've not asked but is important for folks watching to know um kind of the big take away is the system is moving very very slowly um there's a front moving through now that's kind of helped push it to the east it's that's going to go by and then it's going to get left behind and kind of Stew around in the light overall light steering flow till the next front comes along and picks it up and that's uh the big takeaway I guess would be it's going to be a very very slow moving system so it's going to sit over an area for a very long period of time so the main threat even though the winds have dropped down is uh going to be life-threatening flooding over the next several days slow moving system life-threatening flooding and I imagine the direction for folks on the ground is listen to local authorities evacuate if that's what you've been told yes uh if you've been told to evacuate I would evacuate uh because this system although like I said it's it's weaken to a tropical storm uh it's going to be very slow moving still the threat for very very heavy rainfall and th flooding Jason Nicholls International forecaster AI weather thank you so much for joining us we so appreciate your Insight and your explanations here great to be here