NFL Week 2 odds: 49ers-Vikings, Saints-Cowboys, Bills-Dolphins | Bet the Edge (9/11/24) | NBC Sports

Welcome! all right welcome to bet the edge I'm Jay Croucher here with Drew dini we're recording uh what day is it drew recording on Tuesday afternoon we're going to talk today about some early lines in the NFL 49ers Vikings off of the ners Monday night Triumph Saints Cowboys and then preview Thursday Night Football Bills Dolphins um let's start off with 49ers Vikings ners are Sixpoint 49ers-Vikings favorites the total is 45 a half a scene of Horrors of sorts for the ners are after uh they kind of imploded in Minnesota last season albe that was the Kirk Cousins show uh what did you make of the nest performance overall uh on Monday night against the Jets is this just set to be the team that just kind of rolls through the NFC again in this tier one in the conference by themselves uh was there anything deeper to read into Monday night I would love to qualify with if they stay healthy but they are already uh dealing with a number of important issues and it did not matter I think it's pretty obvious and um uh to everyone who making numbers this should be your number one power rated team in the NFL against the neutral um and I would in general expect that um there is scope for this to go up uh this is a team that we shouldn't forget was what close Six Point favorites against the Ravens at home on Christmas this was the team that closed meaningful favorite against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl um and you know while they didn't have Christian mcaffrey they still had just as Dynamic a rushing attack which was largely a function of the Kyle Shanahan scheme which is going nowhere um and I think ultimately uh this is uh you know pretty clearly a team that will grow defensively as they get healthier um didn't see Dr Green law didn't see honga didn't matter and I think ultimately this is uh absolutely the team to beat in the NFC now their schedule is quite a lot harder with than the um than the Eagles uh and the chances that they are ultimately able to get the one seed over the Eagles because of that differential is is kind of the interesting story for me um pretty clearly there is a huge huge HomeField Advantage playing in the playoffs at the link and if the Eagles can somehow eek out a one seed over um the Niners then that definitely changes the complexion a bit um but uh no there's really no reason to doubt this Niners team whatsoever Kyle shanan still clearly has his fastball until in terms of scheme uh the three wide receiver weapons they had out there were you know looked absolutely Dynamic um and then on top of that uh um you know they didn't even really need to use juice juice check and and KD but you did and that worked so um yeah that was uh that was a little bit of a shock as to how uh easily they exposed the Jets on Monday Night Football um and I look back or at least I look towards this game where the Niners take on the Vikings as kind of an interesting exercise in how much did the head injury that Brock py sustained in that game matter um he really really was not executing at the level that we saw for most of the season last year after he got his Bell rung in that Vikings game and I think um you know the Blitz in general is not something that I'm especially nervous about if I'm backing the ners in this spot uh and there are still pretty clearly obvious uh Personnel limitations with the Minnesota Vikings defense uh which I think are concerning now my fair for this game would be under six we're currently looking at six I think I would make this or I say I think I would I'm looking at my numbers now I would make this more like a four and a half um but as I am licking my wounds having just doubted the Niners I think probably gonna pass on this one okay that's fair yeah I think uh it went a little bit under the radar because their box scores weren't amazing but to me the biggest thing out of Monday night's game um outside of the Jets defense looking very Meek was that I thought both quarterbacks looked incredible I thought the py was uh insanely good and his stat line would have looked a lot more crisp had Brandon IU come down with that ball the right corner of the end zone which he probably catches 90% of the time and then Rogers um I think he showed like his in Star contrast to Kirk Cousins uh where the thing with Rogers is um doesn't need to really plant his foot to throw the ball he is all arm uh and his arm looked great so no worried about Rogers at this point and I thought pie um I mean that's when you werejust for the caliber of defense that he was allegedly playing um that's certainly one of the best performances of his career um I believe off the top of my head that Brock pie was the he was either the first or second rated quarterback by PFF grade um this week and the number one guy or the other guy in the top two was Sam darnold um who he goes up against how much do you read into darold's performance against the Giants is that a function of the Giants secondary just being horrific and the Giants being horrific overall or do you think that there is scope that darnold with the best context of his career the best play caller of his career um could you know make a meaningful leap that is the million-dollar question um and I think the having rewatched that game relatively recently um the pressure that the Giants front four was able to get particularly up the middle particularly from Dexter Lawrence who is an allpro um was meaningful and darnold handled it well uh it didn't really feel like uh he was in any way shape or form the same quarterback who was um you know completely unable to handle pressure uh earlier in his career and I think ultimately um while I don't disagree with you about Aaron Rogers I do think that uh the Nathaniel hacket scheme was was wanting last night and I did think that Rogers under pressure was a little underwhelming so um really all the Niners defense had going for them was getting some pressure and if they are able to get some pressure against darnold well uh not exactly worried about darnold kind of matching scores here so um the bigger Edge for me besides the side here is the total I think 45 a half is uh quite low um the only adjustment I made for the ners coming out of last night's game was the Special Teams number had to go up because that uh was one phenomenal kicking uh display put on on uh by Moody and I think uh now being indoors and again just like a lot of freaking Talent raw you know raw speed Talent uh ability to have some explosive plays in this game uh I think this total should be 47 so um I guess in in a long way like I am believing that the um Vikings are going to keep this game competitive I am believing that darnold is going to have a nice little stretch here at the beginning of the Season where he proves to people that he needs to be taken seriously and I think uh even if the uh Vikings only get to say 17 points or so in this game I still think the um the total is about a point and a half too low okay yeah I think with the uh it was obscured a little bit because the Jets just never had the ball but when they did have the ball they were moving it pretty well against the ners defense uh it was just that the brace Hall fumble and then the interception um really hurt them and they just they just never had the ball so still I think some questions about the Niners um at least their pass defense uh it just seems someone who's frequently had money on the Niners the past two years they just drop into these soft zone coverages so often and and it just felt like that was there for Rogers frequently their run defense at least looked much improved from the bottom 10 unit the that it was uh last season um any other angles on this game before uh we move on were you worried about what the the ners defense showed against the Jets or was that basically par no no that was kind of what that was what I was expecting I guess the the two wrinkles were it felt like the Jets and iron Rogers you know you look at his spray chart of his targets it was all left side of the field he was they was either they were specifically avoiding charvarius Ward or charvarius Ward was doing such a nice job of coverage on the right that it was no there was no ability to Target over there um but either way um that's interesting from the matchup of Justin Jefferson standpoint because if Ward is truly a CB 1.01 kind of you know you know Talent um then that's going to be a match up worth watching uh I know Addison is dealing with some injuries no hackinson then in this game and uh if we hadn't seen you know some flashes of you know signs of life from Naylor and a little bit of um you know chemistry with darnold then that would spook me a little bit um but all that said uh um you know short week for the ners haven't mentioned that um you know difficult place to play in general early in the season uh you know real real deal home field advantage for the uh uh the Vikings in the dome there and I think uh you know this should be probably one of the better games of the week yep I agree pie V Don Blockbuster um I think one last thing before we move off of the Niners and um because I think the thing with going into week two is the we're so biased by um what we've seen and not knowing how to adjust for opponent yet like we this idea that the Jets are you know on Elite top five top seven defense but what if they're just not this season like defense is hugely variable season to season I think if you ask most Jets fans they would tell you that their concerns coming into to the year about the defense were question marks about the run defense and question marks about the pass rush it's like well if you got question marks about run defense and pass rush uh got questions about the defense in general everyone's very comfortable with the secondary but if there's not the pass rush to complement it and if you can't stop the run even know if you it's coming play after play like they did on Monday night then um it could be a little bit worse than expected still think that'll be a good defense but perhaps not the all World unit um that people hoped they would be um but the season is still young all right dominate this NFL season with a Fantasy Life Plus subscription get weekly rankings start set advice d s analysis and betting tools use promo code season 20 for 20% off go to Fantasy life.com rotworld to learn more all right New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys two teams that uh covered the spread by a monstrous Saints-Cowboys amount I think in terms of just the difficulty kind of just in one's head adjusting for how good or bad the opponent was especially Stark really in both of these cases I think the Saints are perhaps the more confusing team where they probably came in to the season it's like the definition of a team that you would expect to be slightly under 500 than eight- n seven- 10 type of team and then they looked uh Again difficult to adjust for context but they looked phenomenal against the Panthers oine was the the big question that held up a bit not up against the frightening pass rush defense was always expected to be pretty good um and against not much and Bryce young but still completely wrecked the game um do you think this is a strange line after the Cowboys were two and a half Point dog in Cleveland now flipped to being six and a half Point favorites at home over the Saints well that the Cleveland line M is the one that I feel like is like still you know still scratching my head over what in the world was going on there um the look ahead here was six uh we've seen uh we saw some initial enthusiasm that pushed this from six to 7 and now it's come back to six and a half um I generally feel like this is one of those games where people see what the Cowboys did they're like ah man we we really did throw you know throw you know throw them uh cold water on them way too soon uh they're perfectly healthy like that defense was just absolutely violent and uh they generated more pressures than um you know I think some teams will have through three weeks this year um and uh I think that's kind of the key key matchup that a lot of people need to digest for this this particular game um one of the more surprising ratings for units I would say in week one was the New Orleans Saints offensive line this was a unit that overall I think a lot of people had penciled in as bottom five uh certainly everyone I think had penil in as bottom 10 um huge questions marks about uh The Tackle situation you had Youth and U and guys that had really not proven that they can do it at the NFL level uh bookending uh your offensive line there and there was some questions that um you know Derek Carr has typically performed poorly when Under Pressure um and uh you know that was sort of the the bare case for the Saints in general um and the defensive line for the Panthers lost their 1v1 so substantially that you either take that as this is one of the worst defensive lines we've ever seen uh or you have to say we have to upgrade the Saints o line and depending on much you move the needle on that specific question tells you whether you should be backing the Saints in this contest or taking the Cowboys because the preseason prior for the Saints o line with this matchup tells you Derek Carr is in deep trouble and the defense for the Saints uh is good but not good enough to completely bottle CD lamb I think in general the offensive line for the Cowboys we saw them come together in the preseason there was a lot of positive buzz and reports about the chemistry and the way that they were playing and they showed it against a very very tough test this is a much easier test you're at home the Saints really can't generate much of a pass rush and I would say that um you know all of the advantages here really tick in favor of the Cowboys now if you do believe that the Saints offensive line is better than was previously worried about Trevor Penning really can play as a pro tackle then uh I got great news for you the total in this game was uh has been bet up but is still under the key of 47 so um realistically if the Cowboys defense uh is as effective and generating pressure as they were against deshun Watson and the Browns on Sunday then this is pretty clearly clearly Cowboys cover and under if the Saints oine plays as well as they did Sunday against the meek Carolina Panthers then uh this thing probably Cooks well over uh 45 and a half and maybe an opportunity to take Saints plus the points but uh right now I haven't made a bet on this game because I really am waiting for a little bit more consensus about what was going on with the Saints offensive line you had an opinion there well I think with the Saints o line even though you had to project before the season like a median outcome that yeah they're very bad um there was at least upside because they have Eric McCoy at Center who's one of the best centers in the league and then they had three well they have three first three young first round picks still on the line uh in in Penning Ruiz and fuaga and so there was upside there it's not like the Giant so line last year where there's just no scope to get good because there's just no Talent on the team if Andrew Thomas is injured and so look it's one game against the Carolina Panthers but and Penning both look good uh and if you have two like they they were first round picks like the past two years so if they have if those guys are just good at tackle and are what they were drafted to be as first round picks it's not like they were like the 30th pick either I think fuaga went 14 and Penning went I want to say like late so if those guys just have made leaps forward and you have two really good tackles and a really good Center then all of a sudden it's just a good offensive line um and so I think that when you combine that with Derek Carr who is very uh maligned I think there's a good chance that Derek Carr is the best quarterback in his division which isn't saying a great deal given that um Bryce young plays in that Division and represents 25% of the quarterbacks in said division but Derek Carr when he is up right and when he has time is a perfectly serviceable quarterback uh and then you have Chris and rased Shahed um who are two of the more exciting and dynamic young receivers in the game cly has Elite scope um and Shahed has a ton of upside and then Jawan Johnson is a very solid tight end like there are pieces on the offense to make you believe that it could actually be good yeah defense was really solid last year so I think there are definitely worlds where the Saints are like an 11 and six division winner I'm not sure about like their scope they're like upside beyond that but I think the concern for them in this matchup is it's been years since the New Orleans Saints had a pass rush if you don't have a pass rush against the Cowboys in Dallas then I think the Dak with CD with another week um you know under his belt that the Cowboys are probably going to light them up but what do you think about like the hypothesis that the Saints offense could just be good if this o line if they've hit on these or if these young tackles have gotten better I I mean th we talk about like what qualifies as like a Belle weather game like this is it y there there is one like Bonafide cornerback on the field for the Cowboys Y and if you're if you can you know neutralize the pressure then you should be able to have opportunities to have explosive plays in the passing game I will say there's one other thing besides just um just the quality of grades from the players themselves for the Saints um cubc who has taken over play calling duties um was it was a breath of fresh air in terms of hand and glove fitting what carck does well compared to what we saw last year uh with Carmichaels so this was a pretty obvious visual upgrade just in terms of offensive functionality and while kubak is you know is this is not his first rodeo like he's got a couple stops now and he might not ultimately be able to elevate this overall offense to top 10 um this is a this is a perfect opportunity for him to prove it because you should be able to find ways to attack the second level of this Cowboys defense via uh Shahed via um uh your tight ends room which is looking quite strong uh Foster Maro probably not gonna play uh tough to kind of get a good read on how serious his injury is but Joan Johnson looked ready to go and uh just in general like the fact that the Saints offense wasn't 14 screen passes to Alvin Kamar was a humongous side of really watching that game yeah and I don't want to overreact too much because like Trevor Penning uh and tesy going up against you know 31y old Jian Clowney and eiku leoto that's a it's different when you go up against Michael Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence defense so let's see how they hold up but certainly encouraging signs um uh and uh yeah I think the Saints who came in as the most non-descript team in football there's a very real chance that this team hosts a playoff game um for better or worse but uh we'll see I'm excited to see how the Cowboys uh defense goes up how they look um you know missing donon blands relying on a rookie Corner uh relying on just a lot of Youth across the board how they go against you know in a dome against a a proper NFL quarterback they did not get in Cleveland so still still everyone kind of saying like oh the Cowboys everyone wrote them off in the off season and they're fine because they blew out the Browns like well let's see how they go the next two weeks against New Orleans and and Baltimore because those are going to be uh I think Stern a test than whatever Deshawn Watson uh was doing on Sunday all right it's a matchup between two of the brightest young quarterbacks in week two on Sunday night watching Caleb Williams and the Bears face off with CJ strout and the Texans in Houston coverage begins at 700 p.m. Eastern on NBC and 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are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 Days in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel don't forget if you haven't signed up for B MGM yet use bonus code B Edge and get your $1,500 first bet offer today okay let's close out talk about Thursday Night Football bills at Dolphins a game that seems vastly Bills-Dolphins overqualified uh for the Thursday night slot dolphins are two-point favorites um that is trickling towards two and a half some spots it's the total is 49 flat uh this is a matchup that the bills uh in recent vintage have dominated um but they are not perhaps the the overwhelming force that they looked to be at the start of last season or the year prior when they were flirting with favoritism to win the Super Bowl um do you agree with this line that implies that you know these teams are basically you know very close to dead even on neutral accounting for the fact that the bills maybe at a slight disadvantage playing on the road on a short week um boy that's kind of The X Factor because for me the bills are better um and the Bills should be small favorites here um the injuries I guess are maybe the most important thing to care about this time of year because it is such a short week in terms of recovery um Devon a chain and um mostard both dnpd again today uh so it looks likely to be down to rb3 rb4 um now granted those guys are still talented so it's not like and by and oh by the way guys who you have never heard of can apparently rush for 140 yards on a moment's notice in prime time so in in a system that's similar to Shanahan so um you know I think ultimately uh the um you know the the hand injury to Josh Allen scared me for a minute uh out of betting this game uh he you know if you didn't if you didn't see it uh did something to his left hand uh and we likely be either taped up or wearing a glove um this was on his last rushing touchdown I believe um and I think the matchup for between these two teams has always very clearly tilted in favor of Buffalo uh particularly with their offense against the Dolphins defense from a skill POS you know just from a talent standpoint um and I you know well one of my maybe maybe I think it was my favorite game last year that I watched and bet aggressively was the bills at the Dolphins week four where they were um you know relative dogs in a game where they were absolutely able to just pick on uh the Nickelback for the um the dolphins all day long and you know I look at the Dolphins defense as vulnerable still they were were able to generate more pressure against the Jacksonville Jaguars than I had assumed that they were but for my money the best offensive line performance of any team in week one was the bills I think this Bills offensive line is extremely strong I think they're going to be able to afford Josh Allen lots of time and I think Josh Allen uh definitely has shown that um you know he can get it done with whoever you put him out there with in terms of targets um Josh Allen is Unstoppable in the red zone so you know the idea that the bills end this season with the most a prolific uh Red Zone efficiency among any offense I I believe it like I think that's completely reasonable um and then on the other side of the ball uh the bills defense played very conservatively against the Cardinals that dictated a lot of the game script that they found themselves in as they were down uh you know early in that contest and I think um you know the the conservative defense against the Dolphins is probably the right approach because the Dolphins offense was quite Boomer bust uh it was you know really fueled by just a couple of big plays which are if you take those out of the equation uh you didn't see kind of smooth efficient matriculating offense which is what the bills are going to demand that they do so um teron Johnson out for the bills at Nickelback matters uh however I still think that the two other guys who were out there covering were outstanding in week one um the Russ Douglas still has it and Christian Benford has taken a huge step forward as far as a cover guy for this secondary and the bills can just flat out cover um they are weak at linebacker and safety um but again like if you kind of know that and you're playing your defense conservatively to protect those parts of your of your unit then you know I I I don't know that there's a huge Advantage uh for the Dolphins in that uh head to head there so um it's uh it's probably silly to bet this game because of the short week and all the uncertainty um but I'm on the bills here on the money line I think that uh you know I'm fine kind of saking this one in the hopes that Josh Allen continues his Red Zone dominance and I'm fine staking this one in the hopes that the Dolphins continue their Elite Team Matchup futility uh the next time they beat a good team in the prime time feels like it's going to be the first team yeah that's that's basically right I think they they probably should have lost at home to the Jags um which is not deal although I think the Jags will be solid this year I'm just a little bit worried that I think the bills might be a bit inflated by the fact that the Cardinals are probably vying with the commanders to have the worst defense in football and they just had no uh I mean they just had nothing against the bills and the bills moved the ball at will um outside of turnovers so uh that would be my concern for Buffalo is that we just haven't gotten a gauge on this new uh Keon Coleman Khalil Shakir ctis Samuel dton concade who did nothing against Arizona this era and how it looks I think as well that a lot of the flaws that were that kind of Miami showed on defense mainly like just Jaylen Ramsey getting roasted which has kind of happened a lot more frequently in the past year um than it had uh previously as he gets a little bit older and has been dealing with you know knee injuries um and is having to commit DPI in the uh In The End Zone um to get by um and I think he'll probably have an easier time against you Kon Coleman khil Shakir um I think it's promising for the dolphins that Jaylen Phillips looked good um and in terms of the Achilles guys you would rank it uh Aaron Rogers One Jaylen Phillips 2 Kirk Cousins um 27 um so I think that is because that was kind of the big question mark about the pass rush with the dolphins is with chub out with Phillips coming off the Achilles um K Campbell what does he have left well Campbell and Phillips both look pretty good so I think that is encouraging a little bit worried for my man dear Hamin going up against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen W that's not ideal I think the back end of the bills defense a bit of a concern and also their linebacking core I mean to your point maybe it's just really conservative and they're playing back back back not sure you can play far enough back though with those guys going up against Tyreek and Jaylen wles so like I think the line is fair I think the bills in these matchups previously have just kind of physically just ragged old the Dolphins I think back to the early season matchup last year in Buffalo in particular where it just didn't seem like the Dolphins belonged on the same field um and that was kind of emphasized with the difference of how uh tour plays in his finesse game versus just you know Josh Allen eating planets uh so I don't really have a strong lean um on this game I think that the bills offense is going to look a little bit worse um but overall uh I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched yeah I do want to mention that the hottest bet in this game in the market to this point in the cycle has been the under um and I completely agree directionally with this move um we saw High conviction in the under in the Buffalo Arizona game that I disagreed with um but it appeared that there were seeds of that was reasonable and the seeds were buffalo ran one of the least aggressive offenses that I have seen in a long time with the lead against that Arizona team like they really and this has been a staple of Shawn mcder since he's really had the keys um and Joe Brady his defenses down the stretch his offenses down the stretch last year were kind of in the same vein like they really are not interested in um you know patting a lead and and getting a comfortable W it feels like for whatever reason and um you know if they take the air out of the ball in the second half of this game with a lead I don't think we should be surprised um and uh if uh if Greg rouso uh utilizes his advantageous matchup against a weak o line for the Dolphins um we could see a pretty healthy amount of um you know of pressure on Tua and while Tua has handled that generally well uh in The Prime Time games under the lights has been where it's been the most obvious that he is kind of aware of it um and uh so I'm fascinated to see Ed Oliver and rouso really against this dline I mean this o line for the Dolphins where I have some serious questions so um yeah I'm I'm I'm kind of uh keen on getting more information about really the uh um the ability of the Dolphins to run less explosive more efficient more kind of cross the street street 20 times type of offense um because that's what they're going to have to do I think to go score for score with the bills in this one and obviously it might not even be score for score it might just be uh you know kind of special teams executions that tilts us one one way or the other but um yeah this has been bet down from 51 and a half to uh you know looks like it's Turing 48 to me yep I think what you mentioned about the bills dline is pertinent because between uh rouso who was a monster uh with three sacks against the Cardinals orbe it up against the not great o line he's not going up against the great o line this time either in Miami between Russo AJ a panessa uh Von Miller was solid like he Von Miller had a better game against the Cardinals than he probably had all last regular season and I think that kind of adds Credence to the idea that Von Miller a year further removed um from his knee injury is going to be at least like a a useful rotational Edge rusher which he wasn't last year last year he was just he's a negative player and so overall I think that this should be a pretty solid um dline and so I think that a lot of the like the bull case for the bills in this game is that they just kind of dominate in the trenches and I think the bull case for the Dolphins is that uh that the the back end of the bills that Hamlin and rap um and to L like I think you know Douglas and and Christian Benford are perfectly fine but you know are they going to be able with that back end to be able to contain Tyreek and Jaylen W probably not but we'll see I think the other thing too is that I think we maybe are a little bit biased by the fact that two of the last three times that these teams have matched up Tyreek Hill has been on one ankle uh where he was not right in the week 18 matchup at least I thought so against the bills um to decide the division last season and then I think the previous matchup for memory I can't remember if it was an ankle or a hamstring but he was hobbled in that snow game towards the end um of the 2022 season so that would be at least he has no distractions this time on a short week he's got all nothing to do but prep for this game yes indeed indeed a lot of yeah W get won't dive into the the Tyreek Hill um content but anyway yeah it should be fully focused on the football as we always are all right don't forget to check out nbcsports.com for more information to help you with your wages thanks those watching on the NBC Sports YouTube channel and if you're listening to us in podcast form don't forget to rate and subscribe also a reminder to find all your favorite NBC Sports shows on Amazon music just at to amazon.com NBC Sports from myself and Drew we will see you soon