Golfbet Insider Rob Bolton | TOUR Championship | TOTT Podcast

38 tournaments down one to go it All Began in January in Maui it ends this week in the ATL the final 30 players have qualified for the Tour Championship as we determine who will be the PGA Tours bet X Cup champion and we check in with the golf bet Insider Rob boltson from pj.com trying to withstand the withering heat of Arizona where we have uh we have broken a record huh what's happening big fella yeah a couple weeks ago uh 90 this will be the 94th consecutive day of 100° or or uh higher was 108 yesterday going to be 10 and something today uh and and we're going to keep going I think for the next two weeks it's at least 100 so shattering the old record which was 31 years ago always tipping my visor to all of the outdoor workers I see out here I know they're used to it so thankful to have an in indoor profession swanie um and and not I mean even in golf not walking the fairways like they have been for the playoffs and the hot in the heat and humidity unsung Heroes for local workers here and uh these you know people doing the Yen's work out there getting the coverage to you and all of us as as fans and Gamers and investors to make sure that we're as in tune with what's happening it's uh it's something else I cannot wait for it to break though man it's crazy we this is our winter we are we it's cabin fever in a major way because of the heat you just never go outside you don't want to go outside you cancel plans it's it's really something it's it's little a little bit more than than we're used to out here and and and I've been out here 11 years I'm glad you got that off your chest I feel like that was therapeutic for you thank you hey tip of the cap to you by the way for all of your Yan's work all season long of course and for doing the segment every week and for going deep 30 Deep full power rankings this week short field so there's going to be some short odds but no betters are certainly aware of that and uh acknowledge that U I'll start right at the top with Xander Schley I think um kind of out of the player of the year conversation at least in my estimation but he comes into the week at 8 under as close to Sheffer in the staggered scoring format as anyone starting the week two back at East Lake and relatively short odds at plus 450 for Xander who sits at top the power rankings here he's been he's been the guy at East Lake the tricky thing this week is that East Lake is not what we know it to be and not what they know it to be and in retrospect it'll be one of those weeks uh where we'll know who are the really good golfers and if it happens to correlate with previous success um on the course it may be more of a coincidence um it's a different course because of the restoration by Andrew Green grasses I mean everything seems to be be new and the guys are talking about it and they don't recognize certain things and yeah the course record still applies which is always one of those quirks for me in in professional golf like it's not the same thing it should be a new course record but be that as it may that's that's a secondary to what what our objective this week I love Xander schof just for just the fact that in a in a sense if we're thinking about starting our expectations at the bottom just ignoring the format for a second and and his position in second place in the opening leaderboard uh his floor is higher than everyone else right now and Scotty Sheffer of course is a close second to that and that's why they're slotted that way so the the scoring obviously benefits Scotty but if there's a bogey birdie swap at the top suddenly they're even uh that's all it takes I'm not reading too much into that spread it's a 72 holes is a long way to go we've seen a lot of guys over the years climb from outside the top 10 into the top 10 typically five or six every year uh last year it was six um expect the same this year um sjm and and shl Twi I mean these guys have climbed from outside the top 10 into to finish in second place Sha's done that twice he's finished as the low aggregate twice in this tournament and hadn't won it uh that was once before the starting Strokes otherwise he would have won it in the current format so for all that he's accomplished he hasn't accomplished this yet uh and the form is there didn't have to play last week he he acknowledged that he thought about not playing and finished tied for fifth all the angles are just incredibly strong for the guy and he was my pre- playoffs pick to win the FedEx Cup so I'm just sticking with it and lo and behold he's he's Swan he's as long as is plus 225 they win it uh Sheffer plus 120 as we're talking it's like sort of stupid odd but that's what you get in this tournament they're just happy they have a board in to market for if you want to play which is what leads me to Sam Burns at at at number three this is the guy for me Rob what a start of the playoffs Fifth and second for Sam who starts the week at 4 under six shots back certainly a guy with the Firepower to gobble up that ground pretty quickly and the value on burns is frankly a lot better than I thought it would be he's in the neighborhood of 20 to1 that's pretty tasty and as I'm saying I'm seeing 40 to1 here at bmgm that's quite a dispersion as I'm looking at the the outrights talking here on a Wednesday which is crazy you got to run to the window for that you know in a in a in a in a vacuum and in my space and you know under my fingers I I'd be writing a lot more about the nappy Factor as a concern Sam Burns but he's Sam Burns so how he's performing is kind of what we've expected from him yet he's still a human being and the NY Factor still applies to him just at an elevated level we saw it uh impact him in advance of having bear uh a few months ago um probably name of the year right there I think for for all newborns on the PGA tour I don't care what anybody says that's I I wasn't necessarily a big fan of it at first and then it's really grown on me and uh and and obviously Sam has been performing like you know like a new father of a son that's how this thing works and and yeah man he's he's really exciting right now and and thank you for supporting him at number three there's been a little bit of dissent for sliding him that high but man he's deserved it now you know there's a lot of it's it's a little bit like um a lot of these guys who who show up in wind mclark is perfect example Al though he's trending too lately a lot of Hit or Miss in that game but Sam's playing as he needs to play the only guy who's matched him who hasn't won in the playoffs right now in the last two weeks is Andrew ROFL with a two and a five uh up on the board so uh bullish on him yeah the problem with the odds at 40 to1 20 to1 whatever you're going to find is that as you said he starts six back we saw colum Mara open with a 61 last year didn't win we saw Keegan Bradley open with a 63 last year didn't win so even a hot round no matter who it is well unless it's maybe Scotty or Xander uh it's going to take him it's it's 72 whole tournament so hang in there uh it's it's probably going to be one of those weeks where uh opening odds are going to be much more well it will be one of those weeks one of those where opening odds will be much more uh attractive for the guys who are at four under or in that vicinity uh than they will be say after 18 holes so uh you know that's that's the live betting will not be as maybe lucrative as it would be in other weeks only one player has won the FedEx Cup three times that's Rory Moy uh it is noteworthy that twice he has come from pretty far back four under and five under he's going on to win the cup on both of those occasions he starts the week four under here this week Rob I mean that for me that's right in Rory's wheelhouse I think it's a far more favorable position to see him stalking than actually in in the pole position and I think the markets agree because despite being six back he's in the neighborhood of 10 or 11 to1 here this week so I just heard Keegan Bradley drop on the wall behind me that's the only negative thing that's happened to Keegan Bradley this year and I apologize to Keegan and his family Xander has Scotty right where he wants him well I think Rory has the field right where he wants it as you said this is kind of what he expects he loves that additional layer look Rory can be a front runner but man we see so much more grit and fun out of him playing a golf when he's not and so he's seventh in the power rankings is more of a of a it's not an indictment uh it's more a reflection of where he opens and um maybe some some pause in his recent form not as far as an indictment he'd be much further down if that was the case um but you know acknowledging the other guys who deserve to be 1 through six that's all it is he's a high seven if you wanted to think of it that way uh he's got to be in my fantasy lineup and he is you know the outright odds are going to be favorable I mean right now again 20 to1 you're not going to find him at 20 to1 most weeks but especially in a week when this when he starts what T5 so or something like that right T5 he hasn't presented much reason to believe that uh he can't reconnect immediately I dug what he said last week about can't waiting can't wait to get to see the new uh the restoration of East Lake so he was eager to get there in the first place all good things from Rory let's talk about your man Gigan Bradley last player to sneak into the field the BMW last week at 50th he now finds him himself fourth and he's going to have a very busy fall I think he's going to be on that President's Cup team as a competitor he's already a Vice Captain who knows if he's going to be a playing captain at Beth Page in the rer cup that's a different conversation uh about a year from now but Keegan is in that neighborhood at 6 under I don't know if I'd go much deeper than that down the board to look for guys who could win but Bradley's certainly capable of doing that and he's in position uh to cash for some investors here this week around 40 to one maybe even better than that Rob we go from not Keegan to your reference of Keegan of all the other 27 golfers in the field we haven't covered yet um if your license plate doesn't say Mr segue or something along those lines I'll be disappointed pal was uh it's uh and it still surprises me I shouldn't like I shouldn't be surprised but uh that was nice so Keegan is trying to become the ninth in Playoffs history to win consecutive playoffs or consecutive tournaments in the same playoffs we uh we kind of covered this a little bit last week he'd be the 13th in history to win cons uh to win multiple tournaments in the same playoffs this is the 18th Edition it's not like this been going on for 100 years and like that's you know still like a high percentage of it it's a ridiculous uh stat and it's an opportunity for these guys to put their head down and go to work the thing is he's number nine in the power rankings because he's not the type of guy that does that he has prevailed uh you know similarly like this but you know it's six under and the confidence I have in him winning in the second week is not as high as it would be for others and the board reflects that at 33 to1 despite his opening position so if you're of that ilk where you want to dive into that history which is on your side have at it that's a good reason like you rarely get that type of reason if if at all so dive into that the course will set up similarly in terms of unfamiliarity as Castle Pines did last week uh and that favors his game he lost 1.6 Strokes to the field on the greens with his Putter and still one by one for the week across 72 holes this week it should matter more but it's the same sort of setup even though guys have been there before um it's a really curious and intriguing angle for him this week um it's more of just a conservative in me and looking at some of these other guys who have done it here before this is why it's it's a quirky fascinating experience we're going to see some of that coincidence because it is a new course but then again sight lines are going to be similar in other places and guys will find their groove and they'll feel the heat and humidity of Atlanta there a familiarity there so if if anything I'm just sort of swerving around the the first- timers who there's nine of them in the field that that they are benefited because the course is new but they haven't never played in a TOUR Championship and I'm not dismissing the impact of that as well it's a lot of first- timers basically a third of the field so it's been a tumultuous start to the playoffs for Hideki hasn't it a victory in Memphis followed by WD with a back issue after the opening round last week in Denver matamis 12th in the power rankings starts the week at 700 under he's only three back to start assuming he feels healthy and he's maybe not 100% but there's a lot on the line here this week um maybe betters are getting better value because of the back issue what uh what's matama on the board as we speak here you go from the winner of the BMW Championship to the winner of the FedEx St Jude Championship I don't know if we've had a more interesting uh pair of winners in first two events in Playoffs history until this year and both again relatively have question marks upon arrival at the Tour Championship which is absurd because we're always careful we're always is you know looking around for you know the the the demons around the corner uh when it comes to where we going to put our units uh with Hideki as we're speaking he's third shortest at 11 to1 and that's reflective of his opening position obviously in a vacuum he's outside my was he number 12 yeah number 12 in the power rankings and that's just a reflection of how healthy is he I want to believe just as I was last week and I had invested in fantasy that he's fine the back issue we we've known about that forever if you haven't followed pj2 or golf for a long time you're probably already familiar with his injury woses over time and hey that's the way it is that's that's why it's called gambling you know you just never know uh so this week the fact that he didn't lose any ground in the FedEx Cup rankings he opens third uh on the leaderboard and three three back of of Scotty but yeah it's again the conservative of me I'm like no no thank you I don't want to deal with that again however he has to be in fantasy Lup because of his open winning position I don't like him at 11 to1 to win if anything maybe a top 10 but you're not going to get any value there uh if if you wanted to go in like a top Asian market that type of thing have at it but you're not going to get any value there because there's only like three three or four guys in that market so it's maybe just a good week to abstain or if if you're of you know if you're a risky investor and you like all of those things that make him a contrarian double down on the units in the outright and uh and have fun with it real quick thought before we close on on Adam Scott if you're looking for a dark course a long shot here this week somebody who's seven back as Scott is you could do a lot worse than the 44y old aie who just finished a second at last week in Denver huh got him 15 in the power rankings if you're thinking of this as a just a a predicted finish of how the the the leaderboard will play out uh at the end uh he's inside the top half I say that sort of with a tongue and cheek because he's really thankful that his major Stak uh didn't come to an end this year uh he was on the precipice of that and it's funny I don't I don't think that that's big of a deal in terms of a streak he just wants to play in the majors and he just happens to playing a lot of them in a row because he's that good uh but now 44 years of age he's going to be in all of them next year so he doesn't worry about that anymore he's been able to reach the Tour Championship he was my guy entering the playoffs from outside from the furthest outside to get in now obviously Keegan won and came from 50th last week but he opened higher than Adam did yeah I think he's just happy to be there in a sense not to take anything away from him I he's not he's too far away to win with you know too many guys to cover even over 72 holes um I think he's really expent his energy and you know this is a respect to everybody in the field he's expended his energy he's expended his Focus to get to where he is and everything at this point will be icing 13 straight trips to Atlanta for uh Adam Scott at Rob Bolton golf is where you follow the golf B Insider on X well deserved down week for you big fella um FedEx Cup fall is on the horizon we will we will reconvene at some point I look forward to it thanks so much all right buddy