Why Bitcoin’s Boring Price Action is a Good Sign

The Boring $58K Conundrum: Are We Stuck Forever? another day and once again Bitcoin is hovering around 58k are we destined to stay in this range forever if Bitcoin is boring you to death and you're ready to throw in the towel hang in there because in this video I'll reveal that there's nothing new Under the Sun and why all signs point to bitcoin rewarding the patient hodlers very soon I'll cover where exactly we are in this cycle compared to previous ones and why Bitcoin can be so mind-numbingly boring and why this is actually a good thing just when you thought we got past 58k Bitcoin pulls us right back in after starting off the year on a rocket ship Bitcoin has completely cooled off and has been range bound between 50 and 70k per coin for 6 months kind of feels like 6 years doesn't it everyone is bored and once again the deers and the fers have come out of the woodwork this first one from the dividend breeder who says Bitcoin was trading near $59,000 in March of 2021 today in August of 2024 it's trading near $59,000 are we sure Bitcoin is the next big thing and another one this one from Lawrence McDonald says Bitcoin August 2024 62,000 June 2024 62,000 April 2024 62,000 February 2024 62,000 October 2021 62,000 April 2021 62,000 and he has a little asterisks at the bottom saying inflation up 30% since 2021 all you really need to do is zoom out to deflect these disingenuous digs they used cherry-pick dates usually in the blowoff top peaks of cycle highs to paint the picture that Bitcoin isn't going up in value my favorite response to that last one was from Matt dyes who shows bitcoin's Road to Nowhere by showing its boring flat price from 2013 to 2016 $500 it's true the majority of the time Bitcoin is slow boring sideways or down and then it blows faces off with huge parabolic moves up the mind-numbingly boring nature of Bitcoin for the vast majority of the time is exactly the reason why have the opportunity to buy any at all if it just went up in a steady straight line it wouldn't be the slow methodical trojan horse that it is now let's take a look at some charts and data to show why this forever 58k consolidation is nothing to panic about Bitcoin's Historical Halving Patterns: Patience Pays Off first up let's look at the Bitcoin price at where we are today 130 days after the having compared to the same place in past Habs as you can see with this chart besides the first having of 2012 where bitcoin's market cap is magnitude smaller the price didn't take off until around 200 plus days after the HS next up let's look at this one from the rational route showing a comparison of past Cycles from the cycle bottom to where we are currently in what he calls the recovery phase which tends to last about 2 years as you can see we are currently outperforming previous Cycles during the same 2-year recovery phase from the bare Market bottoms judging from this we are still a 100 or so days away from exiting the recovery phase and what tends to come after the 2-year recovery phase according to root it's the one-year parabolic rise which is Then followed by a one-year draw down in his three stages of a 4-year Bitcoin cycle now let's have a look at this Bitcoin's Market Cap Ranges: A Long-Term Perspective awesome animated chart from Wicked which shows the number of days Bitcoin spends in a given price range displayed by its overall market cap it shows Bitcoin spending around 2,000 days in a market cap range between 100 billion to 1 trillion which translates to a bitcoin price between $4,700 and $47,000 per Bitcoin as you can see at the tail end of the animation we have only spent 3155 days in a market cap range between 1 trillion and 10 trillion which is where we sit today if we expect history to repeat we will be range bound between 50,000 and 500,000 per Bitcoin for the next 1,700 plus days what this tells me is that bitcoin's performance should only be taken seriously over long time frames minimum 5 to 10 years if you aren't planning on holding Bitcoin for at least 10 years you simply don't understand the asset yet and this is precisely why it's so hard to grasp for most people instead of viewing it through the lens of a short-term gamble we should be viewing Bitcoin over a long time Horizon not unlike something like a real estate investment cherry-picking snapshots of bitcoin's price during small Windows of time only highlight its extreme volatility which everyone knows is the price of admission to the Bitcoin ride to Financial Freedom one more chart to show why we should remain bullish even at Eternal 58k is this one showing that Exchange Reserve Balances: A Bullish Indicator Exchange Reserve balances have declined steadily and are down 12.5% since January of this year this post on X from Preston pish says it well when price doesn't move but on exchange Supply relentlessly exits the exchange you either sit up in your seat or you sit there like a dotard and this one from bit pain one of the least intuitive aspects of markets is that the only cohort asset holders that impact price are the marginal buyers and sellers there may be a vast cohort of people that own an asset who would be unwilling to part with it at 10x or 100x multiples of the current price that deep Market sentiment is completely irrelevant to the market price until the weakest handed cohort has run out of coins at which point the price will Gap up to the next substantial cohort of marginal supply so the tldr is hang in there and Bitcoin will reward you it's not an easy game hodling if it was everyone would do it we would all be financially free and The Long Game of Hodling: Conviction and Patience Bitcoin would be at a million per coin already this is a long game so keep stacking the dips and don't let the boring price action shake you out if you lack conviction go deeper down the rabbit hole and keep learning okay let's put a pin in this video with some wise words from Michael sailor the best idea Michael Saylor's Investment Wisdom if you want to make 10 extra money is is you buy something that everybody in the world needs Nobody in the world can stop and almost nobody understands perfect okay so in 2010 that was Amazon or that was Apple or that was Facebook or Google these are all dominant digital networks that everybody in the world needed that nobody could stop but if you'd ask the typical mainstream investor is this a good investment they would all say oh it's very scary it's overvalued Amazon doesn't make money you know uh mobile phones used to cost $50 you know it's like am Apple's going to sell an iPhone for $600 it's they said it's too expensive the iPhone $600 is too expensive noia will sell me one for $30 they said Apple it's going to go to $30 and of course what happened is Apple went to $1,500 and so so the conventional was against these big tech companies so The Bitcoin Opportunity according to sailor you can 10x your money by buying something that one everyone in the world needs two nobody in the world can stop and three almost nobody understands 10 years ago that was Amazon or apple today it's Bitcoin the question is do you have the conviction in the patience to hold through the most mind-numbingly boring sideways action so Predicting the Breakout: Escaping the $58K Range what do you think how much longer are we going to be stuck at 58k when breakout I'd love to hear what you think in the comments like this video for the and don't forget to subscribe to the swan Bitcoin Channel if you haven't already okay that's it for the week I'll be off in the wilderness for the long weekend but I'll catch you right back here next week for more Bitcoin signal also don't miss a new episode of 21 Voices tomorrow this one with Natalie Bernell about why we are so early to bitcoin stay patient my friends and don't forget to touch grass this weekend