August CPI Inflation Falls To 3.65%; Rural Trends, Interest Rates & Economic Recovery| Editor's Take

you know inflation is always a lag data AA so what we're discussing is inflation for the quarter gone by for the month gone by but a lot has changed in terms of the September uh the seasonality and vegetable prices has started coming down accepting milk and spices nothing has uh things have started coming down and also crude hello crude is down I mean that is one of the reason why stock markets have gone up and the crack and crude has happened only in the month of September we've not heard yet from government but I think prash yesterday my colleague reported a story that government could consider a price cut so if price which is one of the most sensitive items in the crude basket if that comes down one which it will ahead of election seasonality has kicked in no large crop damages have been reported in the month of September which means the vegetable prices seasonally will come down so I think from a market standpoint inflation is no longer the bug bear so to speak that's one second will RBI move will RBI not move that is a judgment call but frankly you know directionally where you headed you know it's like saying that you are headed to the peak of the mountain allv you're coming down from the mountain you don't know at what pace you will come back but Market narrative will start ahead of what the RB action would do and that explains why suddenly nbfcs are going higher why corporate Banks which have a large dependence on wholesale borrowing they've started going higher so from a market standpoint the trade now is rural the trade now is recovery the trade now is rates and Rural why because you know Aisha inflation pinches pinches if you're in rural India suddenly you have to pay 5% more 6% more for your daily needs it hurts you and when that structurally starts coming down I think it's a big Hur so Rural and rates and Recovery these are three themes which I think will happen because of what's happening on the macro world

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