The Wild Card Races Are Heating Up!

Intro Begins [Music] [Music] welcome to rates and barrels Tuesday September 10th der rer you know saris Brit roli here with you on this episode we are discussing promotions for Jason Dominguez and Kumar rocker news that broke after we finished Monday's show I think we will the Dominguez promotion into existence though so we'll take partial credit for that interesting enough they left Verdugo in the lineup yeah I know Stanton day off Monday but I think the usual plan will be the one we outlined on Monday loto to the bench and yeah a lot of Jason Dominguez playing in a corner we get the NL wildcard watch the Mets making things more than interesting in that race we'll take a look at how that's happened and how the Mets stack up to potential playoff opponents if they are able to secure one of those spots in the final weeks of the season going to talk about the struggles of Justin Verlander and whether or not he will be a part of the Astros playoff rotation if his current form is the form we see at the end of the season so we have a jam-packed show today very ambitious I think would be the way I would describe us let's get the quick promotion stuff done because Dominguez as I outlined yesterday the Jasson Dominguez Rejoins the Yankees projections have closed in on the Alex Verdugo projection usually you look at a rookie or an inexperience experienced player and say okay there's a lot of swing and Miss in the profile projection says 210 220 average low 300s OBP a little bit of power and a high strikeout rate and that's not as good as what you get from a veteran like Verdugo but verdugo's struggles and dominguez's success at the top levels of the minor leagues have pushed those numbers closer together and this just feels like a way to give the Yankees a little bit of a boost as they try and wrestle away the AL East from the Orioles but also to give Dominguez a window before the postseason where they can decide in even though it's a high Stak situation whether or not he's an upgrade over Verdugo in the games that matter even more than the ones they're playing right now right so I think this makes all the sense in the world and and Brit we've seen players come up in key spots Dominguez debuted of course last year and got hurt so it's not his major league debut but he's got very limited Big League experience what is your expectation for how this is going to play out in the final weeks of this season well I like this because you look at their other options and this is the reason we've been calling for him to come up right why not bring him up it's not like Verdugo was lighting the world on fire um you know Aon Bo said to reporters yesterday he's going to play a lot which should be the plan when you call up a guy like this he is eligible to play in the postseason because he was on their 40-man roster um you know at that date at the end of August so I like this move I think sometimes the playoffs is all about these people you don't expect giving you contributions and he could definitely be an x- Factor we know Aaron judge is otherworldly we know how good Juan SoDo is but just imagine if they get a little extra contributions from a guy like Dominguez right like he could come up in big spots he probably will this is how the playoffs works right it's always the the Lesser names to an extent I think this is a good move for the Yankees they have a little distance they're a game and a half up on the Orioles as we record this episode uh the Orioles have plenty of problems can't really consider win maybe the Yankees this helps them kind of reel off enough breathing room to take the American League East which is what you know really they've been trying all along teams try to set themselves up for the playoffs the problem here with the Orioles and the Yankees is neither team has ever created enough space to say we're going to win the AL so a guy like Dominguez I think sends the message that this organization wants to win and they want to win now and they're willing to try different things which sometimes I think fans are just maddened by uh the lack of activity by sticking with fugo by wondering you know why we are platooning certain guys so I think if you're a Yankees fan you're pretty excited that the guy they call the Martian is back up with the big league team and figures to get a real chance and the last time we discussed this team that doesn't never get any attention I think at that point Anthony Rizzo was still on the iil Dominguez was still in the miners and J Chisum was hurt Chisum has since returned Rizzo has since returned and now Dominguez is up so a lot of those questions we were asking about The Supporting Cast behind judge and stto could have an answer that's a huge possible lift for the Yankees to me that's something that makes them a lot more dangerous if their lineup has that extra length behind stto and judge yeah and I one thing that I really like too is that in their trade for jism in their development of Austin Wells um and now putting Jon in Center I think that they've not only added an element of Youth and speed and defense to this team um they've done it in up the middle in key positions uh with vulpi at Short at being such a great defender now at least the role players are all playing you know great defense at important positions on the field and then like what Brit's saying that sort of unexpected contribution can be their offensive stuff but you're really Shoring up defense and speed and you're and you're adding an element to to a Yankees team that has historically been a little bit older a little bit more plotting a little bit more you know we need the homers to win kind of thing this is a little bit more of a dynamic offense that can do different things uh and really pick it so I mean cudos to them because I think one of the hardest things to do in the two timeline world where everyone's trying to compete and uh and develop is give your kids enough chances um to establish themselves and this year they managed over the last year plus they've managed to give vulpi and Wells and hopefully now Dominguez enough chance to establish themselves as Major Leaguers while they're young while the team is competing that is I think a tricky thing to to really pull off and that's probably while why this has taken so long I mean people have been yelling for this Json Dominguez thing for so long the problem is Verdugo is a credible veteran projectable you know there's no risk in putting Verdugo out there it seems but you know the longer he does B up poorly the more the numbers kind of change so uh but I think that this is this is a a good uh change for the Yankees and it'll be it'll it may end up being a big deal because they're really looking for somebody to step up if it's not Gaber if it's not vulpi if it's not Wells they need a a cleanup hitter they need somebody behind judge um and they need to extend that lineup a little bit beyond judge and stto and I and I think uh Jon the Martian he can do it when what we saw in the first game was uh speed he he stole third and uh scored kind of a crucial run at the time it didn't turn out to be a crucial run in the end but uh it it brought the game Tighter and it was it was all legs also having the flexibility with Dominguez being capable enough center fielder you don't have to run judge out there every single day take a little wear and te times he's poorly rated yeah but they at least trust him more than they would trust judge and SoDo and Verdugo are poorly rated oh yeah yeah well yes Jon's numbers are in really small samples so right it's I I think there are questions about some of the some of the things we've seen from him coming through as a prospect defensively but could end up being an upgrade given the Alternatives judge I think his defense in center field was something we discussed previously too it's just like he has the ability to play it it doesn't mean it's a great idea that's sort of the the main thing he might be their best option in a non-d Dominguez lineup to play that spot that's probably the way they've want running the most out of every outfielder isn't is like a type of question you know yeah absolutely the other promotion coming Thursday Kumar rocker who has Kumar Rocker to Make MLB Debut on Thursday looked fantastic coming off of Tommy John surgery 18K against one walk in just 10 Innings at Triple A 29-3 strikeout to walk in double A this year in 19 and two3 innings getting a nice soft landing spot that Mariners lineup has struggled throughout the season you know you've looked at the numbers as far as the stuff plus model on Kumar rocker and and there's quite a bit to like here so it's a great audition chance for him to sort of get broken in at the big league level for a handful of starts before I assume taking over a regular spot in this Rangers rotation for the next several years I would imagine any projection for this Rangers rotation to begin 2025 has rocker in it yeah he he throws the death ball you know we all love we all love pitches with weird names and uh fun acronyms so he throws the death ball 85 miles hour straight down so so just like a little baby curve um and uh there are some questions about his fastball shape he may end up being more of a sinker guy he has a kind of a sinker shape on his fast ball um but he throws the ball on average around 98 miles an hour so even if the shape is not amazing on his for seamer if he throws at 98 and locates it as he has been um then it won't matter so much because they'll have to honor the 84 mph death ball and the sinker and the 98 mon for team so um I I think he has what it takes to to succeed and and the Minor League strikeout and walk numbers are are crazy good crazy good he's like striking out 40% of the guys he sees in the miners this year yeah there's a guy named Paul SK who we might have heard of and we we talked about his fastball shape his numbers aren't as good as rockers just to put it in perspective his minor league numbers were not as good as rockers just to put in perspective of what is going on on because the Texas Rangers didn't have to call him up right actually he forced their hand by putting up such ridiculous numbers and to me what this says is that the Rangers want him to get the experience now because he's going to hit their ground running next year as part of the rotation if they didn't call him up this year you know you might have seen some spring training getting his feet wet maybe some up and downs in April early may they don't want any of that they want him to get out some Growing Pains now um and he certainly earned the promotion but you know I think that the the Rangers want to pencil him in like we said as part of that rotation and have no plans or assumptions that he's going to take a step back so that's really what this means because this is a full year before they have to make a decision to even protect him so this is a this guy's been kicking down the door he hasn't been shy about the fact that he needs to be up here and so it's really kind of cool to see I know skin has gotten so much attention and limeline rightfully so uh but like I said this guy has been better and will be really interesting to see how he faes not just in this few weeks but how he takes these few weeks these reads on Big League hitters into next spring training right uh there's so much valuable expertise and this is why the big you know it's a little bit of an older baseball thing where you callup guys for September call-ups you know with the expanded rosters uh because it is really valuable to get these reps at the big league level in September and that's what the Rangers are getting yeah and you're it's good to think about you're right about what this rotation will look like next year um right now I think ivaldi has played himself into the ability to decline the $20 million player option he has um and try to get you know a last you know two three year deal or maybe not even the last I mean guys some guys are pitching into their 40s um but uh get a three-year deal instead of just taking the one and 20 if he does that then the only pitchers they have under contract um at the Major League level for the rotation are deg Grom U Mali and um uh John Gray uh who is currently has a neome on his foot so um that's just three veterans that have not been really that healthy you'd kind of want four more pitchers so I think Jack lighter is going to be important for them next year uh maybe as their sixth guy Kumar rocker looks like he's you know slotting as high as third or fourth already uh as a as a rookie next year um and you'll probably see them go out in the free agent market and try to get um one of their specials which is you know kind of a a one or twoyear deal with a veteran that they think can bounce back yeah I think with the core they have in place they will fancy themselves playoff contenders again in 2025 there's no no reason why they would tear down what they did coming off a World Series win last year this year of course with the injuries they were dealing with all season we knew there was a possible step back Still Remains to be seeing if we get an extension for Chris Young that was something we brought up a couple weeks ago the front office not under contract for next year yet haven't heard about that yeah his director his AGM of Player Development Ross fenstermaker too so I mean those those are two guys that have done some good work in the short time they've been there it's sort of surprising they're still out there yeah but for a team that doesn't seem like it's getting to the postseason this year there's still a lot to be excited about for Rangers fans watching rocker and the eventual return of Jacob deg Grom here in the coming days let's shift the focus over to the The Mets' Continued Presence in the NL Wild Card Race NL wildcard watch where the Mets are more than hanging around they've made things very interesting if you go back to early July pick July 5th because I like looking at the fan graphs rolling playoff odds trying to find the dips July 5th the Mets had a 29.3% chance of making the playoffs and that was actually up quite a bit from some of their PE their valleys in the first half when they were single B at stretches y it didn't look like a a playoff year for the Mets in the early stretches of the season but they've been on this gradual rise played really well basically since late may give or take they're up to a 58.8% chance of making the playoffs and they've taken a little bit of playoff share away from Atlanta in the same division and the Braves sit at 62.5% right now so it's still kind of in that back and forth coin flip sort of situation the Diamondbacks just for comparison 83.7 % they have been cruising they were also in the same kind of range as the Mets 24.6% playoff odds back on July 5th Arizona's played exceptionally well over the last two months or so now so a lot to look at here and I think the first real question is how good is this Mets team compared to other teams we're going to see in the postseason specifically in the rotation because I think that's where they entered the year with a lot of big questions the kodai Singa injury to start the year left a lot to be desired I think in terms of quality and they have found a way to make it work so far you know like when you look at the quality of what they've been able to assemble Shawn maniah has been kind of a fantastic pickup in in free agency David Peterson's a guy we talked about yesterday who's exceeded expectations they really had a lot of things go better than expected we know it's a pitcher friendly environment but it's not just that Luis sevino isn't the old Luis sevino but he's at least a good starter for them and he's chewed up a ton of innings getting to 166 Innings through the first five months in change of this season but I think a lot of people will say against the likes of the Phillies and the Dodgers they would be underdogs just based on the pitching matchups alone do you think that Gap is too much for them to overcome as they're currently constructed yeah it is it is interesting because you know the reason why the Mets even though they're a game ahead of the Braves um and just a game behind the Diamondbacks have the worst playoff odds of the three is that you know in terms of true Talent how good is this team really over at Fang graphs they say the Mets are a 496 win percentage team so not even a 500 team um they're a team that would go you know uh 80 and 82 kind of deal um in a full season and the Braves are a 561 uh true Talent supposedly better than the Phillies um and in that regard going forward uh and the Diamondbacks are a 542 team so you know those are th they're looking at those and they're saying you know it is going to be close because there's not that many games left but the Diamondbacks are going to win more games the Braves are going to win more games uh the Mets are going to kind of go 500 except if you look over the last uh month if you look at the last month the Mets are 18 and nine you know the Braves are 1711 as much as Belling is going on over there uh and Arizona's 1511 so really anything can happen in a 30 game stretch if they have another you know 20 game stretch just like the one they had then the Mets will be in in those uh and they'll be ahead of those other two teams so um that's that's what's exciting yeah and I do think that when you look at the the Mets as they are constructed in terms of you know what their strengths and weaknesses are the thing that really stands out is that rotation I mean that the lineup's pretty good I mean Lindor is doing a lot of the carrying but as Marte gets healthy VI SOS hits the ball really hard Alvarez hits the ball really hard nimo's underrated uh you know it's a pretty good lineup that's covered up a little bit by a really pitcher friendly Park so um you know it's a decent lineup that uh has some of their numbers suppressed by that park on the other hand the starting rotation Jose kingan Luis srino sha Mania who's been a revelation with the new arm slot David Peterson's been all right and Paul Blackburn I mean I I think as much as I like Toma the best I can give him is like a two3 uh on a playoff team he's I don't see an ace here uh but I did do a little bit of research just to put in context like what um you know what it looks like to have a World Series contending starting rotation um and over the last 10 years the World Series winner uh on average had the ninth best rotation in baseball and the World Series Loser on average had the n best rotation in baseball and the better rotation won the World Series five out of 10 times yeah but there's a little bit of a maybe a Mini Mini U shift going on in baseball because if you remember 2014 and 2015 right at the beginning of the sample that was the Royals and the Giants and they had the 20th and 25th best rotations if you remember they weren't about their rotations they were yeah yeah but what I'm saying is I think they inspired a lot of people to spend more time on their bullpens and I think that there's been a shift so if you look at the last eight years and you take those guys out and you say those guys change baseball a little bit everybody has good bullpens now maybe it matters a little bit more to have a good starting rotation you might be right because in the last eight years the World Series winner has had the fifth best starting rotation on average and the World Series loser has had the seventh best so that's that so you you kind of if you want to go to the World Series generally in the last 10 years you want to have a top 10 uh starting rotation and right now the Mets are uh 22nd in that regard yeah there are some that's World Series versus playoffs you know I mean I I know this is this is a small bit of analysis done on a little piece of paper but I like it you a full sheet I know what's up with that it's very eco-friendly that you're not using a whole sheet for you like your dog ate the rest of it kind of thing this is what my office looks like I I agree listen I think I don't think we're going to sit here and make a case for the Mets to win the World Series on one hand on the other hand I feel like people sit and trying to make sense of the playoffs every year and you can't make sense of the playoffs like you just said five out of 10 times it work that's a coin flip yeah that's a coin flip so yeah even in the even the last eight years it's it's five out of eight the better better rotation had won so and any front office person you talk to will tell you that nobody has figured out how to win in the playoffs because just like as Billy Bean used to say yet getting there is all you can do once you get there there the best team doesn't always win it's the hottest team and you look at the Mets and you look at games like last night like they really didn't have any business winning that game and they've done that a lot you know they didn't have any business they don't have any business being the best team in baseball since like June something which is what they are um qu Jose canana has been terrible if they had any options at all he wouldn't have been in that rout they would have taken him out of the rotation a while ago um you know Jeff mcneel that injury hurts you know you look at the Mets and you're like how are they doing this right and I think sometimes it's really tough to quantify Lindor is having a terrific season manah has been great as well srino when they needed him has come up big I think Edwin Diaz being back to Edwin Diaz has certainly helped for that psyche because when Edwin Diaz is blowing save after save the Mets just don't have the ability to recover from that you saw that a little bit earlier on in the season um I think they're a pesky team I think they're one of those teams that if they get in and they get hot look at what happened with Arizona and Texas last year right was Texas a better team on paper did they have a better rotation of course they did however we see this all the time so I feel like if you're the Mets and you're David Sterns you're thinking like if we get in we could win a series we could win a game or two and that's how this whole thing starts right that's how the boulder starts moving so I think the Mets have been a fun team to watch um I don't think anybody expected them to be relevant and you know if you go back to May that they would be relevant here as we sit here on September 10th talking about the fact that the Padres and Arizona have played so so well means that the Mets have had to earn this right when sometimes I feel like we sit here and we talk about oh nobody wants the last playoff spot all this mediocrity these teams have played really well which I think is nice and refreshing right whoever goes out of that NL Wild Card like those those teams have earned that right we aren't seeing a lot of backing in this year which has been nice the Padres have been one of the hottest teams in baseball Arizona's been very good last an executive said to me uh about Arizona last year they were lucky this year they're good which really kind of illustrates what you're dealing with if you're the Mets it would have been easy to fall off and be seven games back eight games back oh a good season they got to 500 uh but really I like what Carlos Mendoza has done in his first year as manager surrounding himself with more veteran coaches to really kind of balance out the fact that he was a new manager in a big media Market um I think the talent that we didn't see and that we were questioning why they weren't better last year we're starting to see some of that and Mark Vientos has had a terrific year he's been a guy who I think they weren't sure what to expect from him and he has been you know Lindor obviously has carried them offensively but Vientos has had some good hits and Jesse Winker has been an interesting like pickup for them where like you kind of like forget it happened because there were hundreds of moves that didn't really matter it seemed like and that's one of them that you're like wow this guy's had a bunch of really big moments for the Mets and he's barely been on the Mets uh you know for what a few weeks now so yeah I do like what they've done I do think there's a lot of momentum and I think the NL Wild Card race has been really fun which is nice because there are years where it feels like one of these teams that gets in is not going to be very good I don't know how you guys feel I won't feel like that this year as it's presently constructed because these teams have played so well I don't know if I have a lot of years where I look at the last wild card team in and have a Vibe of like ah this team's bad why are they here I think that can happen with the expanded field playoffs I just don't know if it's happened yet it's a great call on Vientos he's been their best hitter by WRC plus I mean tons of power I think he's exceeded even the more optimistic projections that anyone could have had we've known he's had power the question was with the swing in Miss offset it to the point where he couldn't be a regular but he's been great and a lot of times we talked about the number of players a team relies on that are above average with the bat the Mets have a lot bentos Lindor Alonzo JD Martinez the Winker kind of a semi-regular nimo's in that group Starling Marte has been right about League average so they've got seven regulars basically that are in that group and a few part-time guys like Jose glacius who've been really good you the McNeil injury is a a but I think acius can do most of the things that Jeff mcneel can do they can get a little more mileage out of someone like Francisco Alvarez at the plate he's dangerous at least has some thump so I think the lineup's the thing that could make them a problem come October I mean this is a a team that's hit more home runs than the Phillies this year I didn't expect that from the Mets especially having to play in that ballpark they're seventh as a team in WRC plus every team ahead of them is a pretty clear playoff team it's the Yankees Dodgers orial Diamondbacks Padres and Astros so they're in great compan as far as what they're doing at least on the Run production side it's just going to be whether or not they can out hit their pitching or the pitching is game planned and and just effective enough at the right time to get the job done it could be a lot better staff I think if it got slimmed down you know a playoff version of this staff is probably better than the full season version of the staff if you're just basically running srino and Mania out there in the bullpen game you know um or you know figuring things out like that uh Peterson on a short lease you know that sort of stuff um you know I think that it's a lot better uh you do you you you you threw one a little throwaway Can the Twins Disrupt Their Tailspin? comment in there that you don't always look at you don't usually look at the last uh you know wild card and and and wonder how good they are I just I love the Twins and I'm not really talking trash on that but I I do want to put the NL Wild Card race up against the AL Wild Card race in one way which is the third AL Wild Card seems to be a team that doesn't want it in the last 30 in the last 30 days Seattle's 11 and 15 Boston is 12 and 16 and Minnesota is 11 and 17 now that's not necessarily the true talent and I know people go up and down but it is just weird to have these two things go up against it where you know these the AL Wild Card seems like somebody's going to slink their way into that last spot as opposed to the wild card where someone's going to Surge their way into their last spot um so you know it's just it's I'm not I'm not saying Minnesota's bad team I do think they'll be the they'll be one of the wild cards but um right now they're not playing like a great team and you know there's there's some Rumblings in Minnesota about that right now yeah let's get to the AL side for a minute because Rocko B Deli showing rare frustration over the weekend that will happen when you score two game two runs in three games against the Royals and get swept that'll happen Aaron glean had a good column on the athletic breaking down some of the problems the twins recently during this slump have been a lot less disciplined third most uh in Chase rate outside the strike zone so you know just like whiffing on the fifth most swings overall while posting the third worst strikeout to walk ratio that's basically like a three or four- week snapshot I think that defines what happens during a slum I don't think it means it's a permanent this te this team's going to be undisciplined to Plate the rest of the season but the timing of your worst stretch it does a lot to shape the narratives about your team like playing your worst baseball at this time of year raises a lot more questions than having a bad run in June and then bouncing back and playing really well in July and August so I would look at this team and say you know they were 63 and 40 from late April through mid August until this run started they look like they were in control of the AL Central the roster is still that core group and they've been missing some key players right Korea buckton Max Kepler on the iil I think having a combination of those guys back would go a long way I know Royce Lewis has been in a slump that's probably going to change at some point between now and the end of the season so I think it's just the question of can they weather the storm there's something I think it's intangible about a club and sometimes it comes down to the coaching staff the manager the guys in the room how do they handle the adversity when things are going wrong are the twins going to find a way to put the pieces back together and just get back to being the team they were for most of the Season or will this continue to spiral on them they're six and 15 in their last 21 after dropping Monday's game to the angels so the impassioned closed door meeting speech didn't have an immediate effect against the team that will not be in the postseason and the other question I have for you guys about I tend to think those things don't really have a I tend to think that like if you're a player and the watching your manager lose it in a meeting on some level you're rolling your eyes well at some level you're just like what's the solution like this being yelled at actually help anyone I don't I don't know why do anything at the trade deadline help me understand this why was this team in control the AL Central at that time or at least in a position to win the AL Central Guardians weren't going to go away easily we know the Royals were going to be pesky what did they do go to your trade deadline and only add Trevor Richards that was the only move they made at the deadline and I think that would be of all the things that have been gone going wrong for them I would criticize them more for their trade deadline than for their last 21 games because that was their chance to patch up the roster and be ready to be a real assets for Tyler rley and Chris Paddock and all the guys that all the pitches they've traded for basically have been hurt yeah maybe and maybe they're up against their ownership imposed spending limit maybe that was a factor but for whatever reason they were very quiet at the deadline and they should have done anything but Brit was having a reaction about the the the raw RW speech what was that well no I just um well I mean as someone who was covered beats um and was in clubhouses for you know days and days and years and years I think you pick your spots I think for Rocko Bal Deli like you're so tired of facing the media and saying we'll go get them tomorrow and then you go out and you watch your team play like they played in that Royal series was embarass embarassing if you're a twins fan embarrassing they got shut out two of the games they scored two runs in the other one and everyone goes after the pitching which is fine but when you score two runs and The League average is over four runs it doesn't matter like you have to score you have to hit they Aron gleeman did a great dissection of what's gone on with the hitters the exit velocity is down the rate of contact is down the quality of contact is down this is over the last month this is the entire lineup I I don't know you guys would know much better than me if this is something something that is common it are they all tired are they I don't they're doing too much work I'm not sure but I think with rock ball Deli you don't make that kind of a speech hoping that guys are like oh okay I'll try now we weren't trying the last month no you do it because you're at your Wits End you want everyone to know that you're tired of talking to the media and saying these guys will turn it around you want to light a fire and you're also hoping that some of the veteran guys in there you know because the manager can only do so much will stand up and say this is unacceptable we have to get better you know because it is the veteran players who set the tone in the club houses managers really aren't in clubhouses very much it is very much the player space so you're hoping that's what I'm saying that's what I was saying if the manager comes in is yelling then you're like why are you in my space yelling at me it's like it was me I'd probably be like okay okay but with guy like rock doesn't get upset it's worth something right it's not Azie Gan yelling because he yells when he orders breakfast right it's like you yeah it is it is the it is the change of tone I think that's a good point as far as just trying to convey a different message to your Club whether or not it's effective I think is still an open question but I do think it's out of character for Roco based on everything I've heard and seen from him just to see like that doesn't seem like his style so I think that speaks to the level of frustration and you know who knows like if this season doesn't go the way that the ownership group expected maybe they make a change at manager that's that's a Poss thing I don't know what that actually does to make the product on the field better we always wonder what the impact of a manager is I never I never got the sense that Rocco's tactics were so bad that it was costing the team games maybe people that watch this team every day have a lot of specific criticisms of Roco Bal Deli that they will send our way as soon as we release this episode but this team should be better no matter how you slice it like and I think it's the combination of things going wrong at just about the worst time and even with all of that the amazing thing is using that July 5th comparison point it was just over two months ago the twins playoff odds have actually increased since July 5th they were at a 76.8% on the 5th of July they're at 79.1% other teams that I mentioned just sort of uh Fading Into Oblivion I mean we talked about the Mariners you know not being able to hit and we you know we've talked on this show about the news that I've heard that they are actually considering changing the batter's eye and so you know we've they're they're they're obviously doing some real soul searching about their batting program there because the pitching program is so good and you know their their rotation is so good it'd be a shame to waste this rotation you know um which it seems like they're going to do again so I think there they're doing some real inward searching when it comes to um you know batting I don't know you know the Red Sox have had such a tumultuous season like I think traditionally you've been like can we get somebody to pitch here and then they were like the best pitching staff in baseball for one month and then back to being terrible um but you know that one month sort of gives you the idea that like maybe these arms aren't so aren't so bad and like you know what like I I I think there is a little bit of like what now in Boston to some extent and maybe the what now is just hey ownership spend some money on arms bring us some some outside free agent arms in to to bolster what we're doing in here because we've done some good but it would be better if we also spent some money on the rotation so that's that's my guess for what they do in the offseason is try to get a big pitcher yeah and and Derek say I feel like the AL Wild Card is the epitome of this team probably shouldn't be here this year because look at if you look at it Minnesota you know Kansas City Baltimore okay Boston is only two games over 500 they're 73 and 71 mhm Detroit's right behind them 73 and 71 theoretically still in the hunt but then you go to the NL and these teams that are in it Arizona is 80 and 64 the Mets are 79 and 65 there's more certification there for sure the the the fringy 500 team is the Cardinals and they're 72 and 71 but they're six and a half games out so and the the Guardians Royals Twins and Tigers are like I I I I ran the numbers at one point they're like 30 and five against the white socks yeah that's the other thing people were pointing out twins fans were saying if you take the white socks out the twins are a lot what what's the Twins record someone look that up against the white sock um yeah because how much does that pad things right how much has playing the White Soxs helped them and maybe covered up some of these blemishes during some of their hotter streaks I don't know uh that is something that that kind of came across on my feed and I was curious have they beat them pretty much every single time did they yeah against the white socks they are 4-0 7-0 uh let's see we got a couple more here uh 9 and one uh 12- one uh yes against the white socks there are 11 games above 500 which means that against everybody else uh they are basically 500 yeah that'll happen when you have a really bad team in division there are 12 games over 500 and they're 11 games over 500 against the white socks yeah so that is pretty interesting and like yeah the white sock should be a gimme for every team but they're not a sweep for every team the weird thing too is that like offensively yeah the twins have always been like a a leader in in barrels and hard hit rate and this year they're now like 11th and 12th in those things um and you know it actually there might be some funny sort of process thing that happens where they get yelled at and they all swing harder and their and their Barr rates go up can't wait to see the result you could yell somebody into swinging harder maybe they'd be like crap you know you know things are going to change I better swing harder you know I'm gonna guess you can't but maybe I I would guess that some of that has also to do with backfilling um you know the injured guys that would have hit the ball harder yeah that's probably a big part hard Kare hits the ball pretty hard so it's another situation though when you look at the entire season and you look at the twins alongside the Phillies they have the same team r c plus the Phillies would hit two more home runs they strike out about the same just under 22% the lineups are more similar than you'd ever expect even with some of the underlying process things being different so yeah this could be one of those scenarios Brit where the team that gets this last wild card spot absolutely backs in and they're one of the first teams we look at and say why this is this is why expanded playoffs are bad this team shouldn't be there but if the Twins start playing better ball in the next two to three weeks I mean Korea comes back Royce Lewis comes out slump you know like there's you know buckon can there's there's definitely things that can happen in the last couple weeks that'll change the the scope of this lineup again who do you like to actually get this spot though like between the Twins the Red Sox the Tigers the Mariners I know the tigers are playing really well over the last six weeks or so but the tiger the one that doesn't belong yet like the Twins Red Sox and Mariners at least all made sense going to the year as teams we thought we'd see and in October the Tigers I think were one notch below them I thought they could be a team on the but they also serve as a little bit of notice for the Mariners in Red Sox which is we thought we were better than the Tigers but the tigers are now in our mix and the Tigers may have in some ways at least a similar up Arrow than to us you know in terms of like putting together um you know some good stop top end pitching plus developing young players in the lineup like that's the Red Sox want to say well we have good young players in our lineup yes that's true so the Tigers kind of you know so if you want to make the playoffs next year you got to you got to beat the Tigers as well as you know all the other teams you want to try to get in do you think the Run differentials of these teams will The Royals' Rise Under J.J. Picollo end up leading us to the actual winner of the final wild card because by that the Mariners at plus 46 are the best of the Twins Red Sox ERS far well no I just think in terms of like what's going to separate these teams right now there's a three game gap between the Twins and the field but they're all close enough where it's possible any one of those three teams ends up getting the wild card and also the Mariners because they pitch so well I know they can't hit their way out of a paper bag and obviously had issues but if you look at it they actually would project to be kind of a dangerous team because they can pitch they'd have to win games one to nothing but kind of dangerous twins could be dangerous if they if we get the twins that we get in the middle chunk of the Season not the start the season twins not the last month twins the the middle chunk of the SE very specific middle chunk of the Season twins they could be very good so I don't know and the RO I you know we I know we talk about the Royals a little bit but I do think it's important to note that what they have done has been really impressive I mean they lose Vinnie pastino and people think well this is it this was a nice story for them you know one of their best best hitters outside of Bobby wit junr who if Aaron judge wasn't doing the stuff Aaron judge was doing we'd be talking about Bobby wit Jr a lot more I think that's getting buried a little bit um what the Royals have created that culture under JJ Picolo uh really is impressive this seems to be the tip of the iceberg I think for them and it's really been fun to watch they put on a clinic again over the the limping twins over the weekend they're just not going away and I like the moves that they made this offseason they obviously went and spent you know over hundred million dollar which bigger teams say we can't spend money the Royals proved if the Royals can do it you can do it and then the trade deadline unsatisfied they made little tweaks right and even when they lose past coutino you know they pick up a bunch of guys for basically nothing like Tommy fam and those guys have helped them so I really you know as much as it is Minnesota has been floundering I also want to give credit to the Royals who have really hung around and weathered a decent amount of adversity yeah I love I love their like deadline and post deadline it's Tommy fam Paul D young Julie guriel um that's a you know those are credible veterans that are U I would say probably between they're in that they're not valued by the market that's why they they weren't spent that nobody spent money on them in in the offseason that's why they were available uh because they're in that sort of just short of League average they're like in war terms wins above replacement terms they're like one one and a half win guys you know maybe two those are not the type of players you kind of want to sign because you're always looking to be better than average you know if you're paying somebody real money you and so but that means they're available and you know he needed that in a couple spots and that made them a lot better but also just speaking to you know what they've done generally you know I think that they've changed um some of their you know pitching development uh in terms of the Brady singer coming to Camp with you know two new pitches um you know Seth Lugo coming to Camp with nine pitches um you know just you know you know Mike Lorenzen so a couple years ago we we talked about on this on this uh on this show about a Royals pitcher that was told to stop throwing his sweeper and he stopped throwing his sweeper and he sucked for a while and then he just started throwing a sweeper and nobody noticed so that was the Royals of two years ago the Royals now acquire Michael lenzen from the Rangers where the team doctor says you shouldn't throw sweepers it's bad for your it's bad for your elbow we we did a piece Ken rosenal did a piece about us Keith me he's the team doctor they don't really throw sweepers in in Texas well guess what they do with Mike Lorenzen they say stop throwing your regular SL or throw your sweeper and Mike lorenzen's been better with uh Kansas City than he was with Texas in terms of underlying numbers so that that sort of uh change can happen pretty quickly and I I really love this quote that you found uh from JJ Picolo because you know we talk about how hard it is to change things he is saying in this quote I you know just not to like ruin it for you ahead of time but this is how I read it we had the elements in place but we needed leadership to align with those elements in a different way so if you think about that while you're listening this quote I think I think it makes sense how you can maybe change an organization quickly if this is the case for for a long time we we've been criticized for not being analytically driven um you know just being behind the scenes I I know that we were analytically driven we just had traditional Minds you know as heads of departments um so I think it was a little bit unfair unjust but whatever it was what it was but over the last year year and a half uh the people that we've uh begun to employ in our hiring practices you know we were looking for people with more diverse backgrounds and how they were raised in the game so to avoid that you know being too one-sided you know whether it's traditional thought and just grind your way through baseball or to analytical so anyway we we've hired a lot of people from our Major League manager to really entrylevel positions of of people who have different backgrounds and it's really helped us it's helped us learn from each other uh respect one another uh think about the game in different ways and that's been exciting for us so that was JJ Picolo on the windup earlier this year with Jason Stark and Doug Glenville and it's interesting to me that as someone who's been in the organization since 2006 you JJ gets elevated to a higher leaders leadership position and realizes that hey like we gota we got to make sure we're not only like listening to the new ideas but we're we're continually finding new ideas right I think that's a huge part of of how you keep an organization moving forward and I think there were some people who believed when when JJ Picolo took over for Dayton Moore you heading up baseball operations that ah might be more of the same in Kansas City but I think it's a it's a sign that this organization actually could be good Beyond this season I think there's a lot to unpack with just like how they're doing it it's interesting that we've been so critical of the Mariners lineup All Season by the way because there are so many different paths to being League average or close to it at the plate both the Mariners and the Royals have 99 WRC pluses on the season the Royals do a great job tempering strikeouts right eight 18.7% yeah problem in Seattle that's been a huge difference right and they've shown better you know more more power in terms of slugging percentage in the Mariners too because they have batting average because they've got the batting average but then like both these teams hit the same number of home runs like 161 for Seattle 160 for Kansas City they both run a lot Mariners 121 stolen bases but6 Seattle the season said they wanted to cut that that strikeout rate and they didn't right and I think if you said which of those teams is more dangerous in the postseason not knowing anything else about them throwing out the quality of their pitching the quality of their defense which lineup would you rather face in the postseason you'd rather face Seattle's lineup in the postseason because you can get out of an inning with the strikeout balls and play are your worst nightmare in in those situations so I I think if you're going to be League average you'd rather be League average with that low K rate even if there's you know something else there's a little extra juice maybe power-wise maybe you walk a little more that's the difference for Seattle i' I'd much rather go into a series built the way the Royals are built lineup wise than built the way the Mariners are even though they grade out as the Same by WRC plus yeah that's a great Point another interesting thing that I hear when he's talking is I I I tend to think a lot about organizations and how they're built and how they communicate and um you know one thing that I do know from you know Houston is that uh in some ways they've lost you know an AGM with analytical ties you know so there's there's no longer really um you know some feel there's no longer really a voice for the analytics work that's being done now you can't say that the Astros went from being a league leader in analytics and and and sort of progressive tactics um to going to being bad at it they're not there's still a lot of the same people that are doing the same work there but if you don't have the ear at the leadership position then two things happen the people who are doing the work even rightly or wrongly feel like where's this work going you know um and then the other thing is you just don't have anybody implementing the the work that's being done so it's kind of it becomes true like that you need to have people who are listening to it so JJ can say oh yeah we were doing all that work but if the leaders of the Departments weren't sort of that inclined to to listen you know when they come up and say you know we need to do this or we need to do this or spin Axis or whatever you know then they're not implementing the work that's being done so you that's how you can change things quickly is if you think like things are being done here down here that are pretty good we just need up there to listen and to really Implement all this then that's that's I think can be a little bit of a difference between the white socks because you know the white socks did the same thing where they they they took somebody that was in place and put him put him above um and like you know Chris gets without really going out there and you know they get they a h from within but I don't think there's that same you know we were doing the work on the ground now we just need to listen you know and they did a little bit where they like changed the stuff at the top they oh let's bring in Brian vanister he'll change everything about our pitching development and he can but he's one guy and so if he's out there trying to change every pitcher and make a plan for every pitcher you got like 200 pitchers in there you know like what are you what are you going to do yeah I I agree so you know you need to have some there's there's a relationship though between like all the small hires and the big hires you know and there's it's it's hard to get right you know but you have to do both yeah and I I heard the same thing when I heard that like yeah a lot of clubs make the mistake of saying well yeah we use we have analytics we have analytic staffs we use analytics but if the decision makers aren't valuing that analytics then what are you doing you know had an executive from you know a very successful team say recently to me like the problem with analytics with a lot of clubs is if they have a gut feeling on something and analytics confirms it they'll listen but if the analytics tells them the opposite they won't and that's not really using analytics yeah bias right so it can be a tricky slippery slope and I think you know what JJ you know recognized also what he's done and I want to give a lot of credit too to pataro in the Dugout because every time you talk to somebody they bring up q and what he's done coming from Tampa Bay another great organization as we know really Innovative really Progressive uh changing the culture uh setting expectations uh he I think has done a great job and been a great conduit to that message that JJ Picolo has and also the Royals have changed over like you said so many different departments and as JJ said once you get that diversity of of thought and opinion now you're creting something a little bit different right now you're looking at it and you're saying all right we don't want to do what everyone else is doing that's the mistake a lot of teams make oh every team's got two dozen analysts we should hire two dozen analysts even though we don't know what they're doing we don't know what any of them are do okay you know um what I think the Royals are doing is saying yeah we're gonna take a little this bucket we're gonna take this bucket we're gonna do things our way because we're the Kansas City Royals and we can't win the way the Yankees are winning right we can't win the way even you mentioned the white sock like they don't have to pay roll the white sock out like you know like just don't have some of these resources and so they have to take this information and they have to take these people and they have to not be afraid to take risks with things and I think they've done that under the hood there seems to be a lot of really like positivity radiating not just from that organization but from other people I talk to as it relates to what's going on in Kansas City you know I think on the national scale Bobby W Jr should be a lot bigger deal than really the attention that he's getting but there is so much more going on there than what Bobby what Jun is doing yeah you know one thing I think about too is like um you know uh the the length of a chance you get something I think about a lot because I'm in San Francisco and it feels like in San Francisco you get two or three weeks even if you do well you might go back down there's a very sort of what have you done for me lately very sort of we have a fluid roster you might be down you might be up we're all we're all on board we're all working together but like I'm in the minors and I just had a great month Luis MOS I just had a great month in the majors and now I'm in the minors what's going on with that you know um so that put up against the A's who are like no we're going to put you in place for two for two months maybe a whole year you know and give you a real shot at this JJ blade we're gonna give you not only this year but we're gonna give you another year you know because we're the A's and we can that's our currency we can give you time and so I think back on JJ Picolo coming in and saying Bobby wit is our starting shortstop you know full stop we don't I don't want to hear about it you know that's it let's stop talking about it he's our shorts stop and that allowed I think uh Bobby Wht to kind of flourish defensively as well as offensively just sort of being like hey you're our guy we're putting you in place we're not going to M muck around you don't worry about Third Base don't worry about anything just man your position and and hit the crap out of the ball and he's been great because of I think that's partially you know that's something that is very different from organization organization as much as I love Tampa I think Tampa's more of a like Hey we're cycling through people here you know you better do something or else you're out he might be a platoon guy next week so you know it's uh it's a little bit different from organization to organization in terms of how much of a chance they give you how they broadcast their confidence in you what they tell you you know that sort of stuff the last thing I just want to say about the Royals is I think defensively they've been fantastic too and I think a lot of times we underrate teams that thrive in that facet think it's one of those things that takes good pitching and makes it great average pitching it makes it good but I think they actually have good pitching more in that first category it's a good staff they added to the bullpen at the deadline air Sig was a good get Hunter Harvey's been hurt but I think that gives them two more high quality arms if both those guys are healthy at the end of the season too that makes them more dangerous when they shorten up and use fewer guys come playoff time but if their defense continues to be airtight they could just be a tough team from a run prevention perspective too it's not just their their peskiness the plate their second lowest strikeout rate in the entire league how often can one game turn on one defensive mistake you know right if they can avoid that that makes them a bit more of a problem against teams that are above their weight class overall but I think the other thing that stood out to me too looking at the Royals going back to our our run differential conversation from a little while ago they're a plus 91 like that's better than I would have expected just for context the Orioles are a plus 84 the Astros are a plus 87 the Guardians are a plus 72 and those teams are quite a bit better than the twins Red Sox tigers and Mariners who are all in that 46 to plus three range as a group so um they're A Cut Above The Royals are A Cut Above the other teams vying for wild card spots in the AL right now at least they have been up to this point and I think there's a lot of interesting reasons for that but Justin Verlander and the Astros' Playoff Rotation speaking of the Astros Justin Verlander has not looked like himself since coming off the iil and it's still there's enough time for him to take the ball a few times and get right before the postseason begins but it begins to raise a question about his role in October how do you think the Astros will try to manage Justin Verlander in the postseason if the struggles we've seen since his return from the a it's only been four starts if those continue over the rest of September gently because you're dealing with someone who is going to be Hall of Famer uh someone who has pitched in World Series has pitched in pck games has been a huge part of that organization so ego is a factor this isn't like a rookie who's lost his way um this is a guy who is going to want the ball if the Astros get to the playoffs so I think you have to look at the scenarios and say are we going to run him out there do we feel comfortable he can get us one time through the order can he get us 12 outs you know I think you have to you have to look at the approach a little bit differently if he's not getting any better I mean that that Sunday night baseball game Arizona just clobbered him that can't happen yeah that can't happen in the playoffs like you can't be giving games away that's how series change on a dime um so I think that Houston has to you know because he is so revered and has so much experience and knows himself in his body better than you know probably 99% of the league you have to have that kind of a conversation with him and you have to approach it like I said probably gingerly and gently and you know he's a guy who's going to push back he's not afraid to so you have to look at well okay who are we going to start if it's not Justin Verlander it's not exactly the Houston Astros this year are not previous iterations of this Astros team right this is a team that has holes this is a team that has benefited from the rest of the division having a lot of issues uh so I think you have to look at it if you're Dana Brown and say what is our best scenario here can we really leave Justin ferlander off the playoff roster I I don't think you can I don't think you can I think he has enough ability to help them the question is how how do you do that does he come out of the bullpen does he start the game and give you two innings I don't know but I don't think if we have to decide here on September 10th if Justin Verlander is part of their playoff roster I still say he is yeah I think you know you what's weird is that you know in terms of his stuff it doesn't seem that far off the stuff Plus numbers are are not the best of his career but they're you know they're not they'd be above average for other players uh he's he's getting back up to 9 4 miles an hour there's there you know one thing we have to remember is Arizona's actually really good it's the best offense in baseball so you know we may just have seen him kind of run into that the worst at the worst time you know as he's trying to get back online uh he has two starts in a row now against the Angels he might be able to get right against them so we might change our opinion a little bit over the next couple of weeks and then lastly I think that because of who he is and because I think the real option is Hunter Brown because I think you say Kikuchi has pushed his way in framber is your game one starter I mean that's your guy who's been with you forever so it really comes down to Verlander or brown for for a start in the third game or and what I would suggest is you know reading between the lines what what Brit said and thinking of myself as a manager I would start Justin Verlander in game two because usually there's a there's a rest after game two um and there's a there's a day game uh I mean I mean a day off if the whatever day whatever place in the schedule you have a day off after it you start Verlander you have Hunter Brown in the pen to start the game I don't know if he's like warming but he's out there you know and and he starts throwing the minute Verlander starts putting people on because you're right you can't give up Grand Slam to paven Smith in the in in the playoffs you know if he gets to two people on he might be out so that's that's how I would I would treat it and I would say and that would be giving him all the respect in the world by saying you're still a starter for us still game two starter for us um and we still need you but if but if you we can't give you you know seven seven RBI to one player we can't we can't that can't happen I I think it's really hard when you look at how well Hunter Brown's pitched since late may like to I was hoping to look at his I was hoping to look at his splits and be like he's slow down but uh 145 RA in August so but I do think if you're in a position it's a longer series and you can start Verlander in front of an off day and you have someone Blanco or arti that you could just throw for Innings behind him if if he doesn't have it like that would probably be among the best options you have where you can sort of try to have your cake and eat it too if you think there's a chance he could write the ship but you're not so certain of it that what if he goes out and dominates against the Angels like he should you know stick with the plan you still start him in game two so that exactly yeah I think you're you're looking at this more as like the entire body of work for the season that's how you're kind of coming up with this plan and saying yeah recent form is confirming some of the things we saw at the beginning of the year so let's re-evaluate where and how we want to use Verlander in the postseason I think that's probably where they're at I mean look he's 41 he's been hurt a lot this year so it's it's gonna happen eventually it happens to everybody we are going to go on our way out the door a reminder you can get a subscription to the athletic at theathletic.com rates and barrels $2 a month gets in the door for the first year you can find us on Twitter Brit is at Brit _ joli Eno is at Enos seris I am Derek V rer the Pod is at rates and barrels and of course you can join our Discord using the link in the show description be sure to jump in there if you got a mailbag question for a future episode that's probably the best way to send those at this point that's going to do it for this episode rates and barrels we're back with you Thursday at one o'clock Eastern on YouTube thanks for listening