Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies SERIES PREVIEW | NL East Battle at Citizens Bank Park

the Braves are heading to Philly for a four game series in Citizens Bank Park starting tonight can Philadelphia hold on to keep the lead in the National League East break down this the matchups and the series on a special happy hour edition of first [Music] [Applause] pitch yes welcome on in to a special happy hour edition of first pitch I'm lindsy Crosby your brav he's Christian raal National MLB riter and this is a pivotable series for the season and one of the bigger series of the weekend it's not the only uh significant matchup here but this is the Atlanta Braves 73 and 60 five games back in the East a very unfamiliar position for them to be in in late August against the Philadelphia Phillies who are trying to win the division uh a division that they've LED almost all season but one that Atlanta has won the last six I believe it's six years straight uh Atlanta has the the advantage in the season series but needs to probably win three out of four to make this a real race of the division down the stretch let's look at these four games Christian starting on Thursday night 6:40 PM Eastern Charlie Morton goes for the Braves against Christopher Sanchez and they're coming into these start at different places right J Morton's last three starts he's one and0 with a 265 erra three consecutive really good outings Christopher Sanchez last three starts one and2 with a 503 ER based on the recent history of the last three starts for each guy plus the fact that the Phillies haven't seen Morton yet this year who has the advantage in this matchup I'm still I'm sticking with the the Braves here I think the Braves have the the matchup right right away because not only do they have the pitching match up that is interesting between Morton and Sanchez but look at where they just came from the Braves just swept the twins Philly's coming off a tough tough loss to the Houston Astros in the series finale so I'm gonna I'm gonna stick with the Braves to start off it but you got to be pretty excited if you're a Phillies fan knowing that you get Sanchez starting off on on this series he's been pretty good as of late he had that complete game just two starts ago and then that's his second complete game of the season his La the first after his first complete start he was terrible in the start afterwards that wasn't the case in his last start against the Braves he he let up three runs he went six Innings he looked pretty good in that in that start against the Braves he did get the loss but he did look pretty good so regardless of that now we're playing at home and Sanchez hasn't been the best if I remember he hasn't been as good at citizen Banks Park compared comped to on the road is that right yeah it's some really interesting no no no it's it's some really interesting splits here for Sanchez he's been much better at home he has a 218 ER and a 7even and3 record in Citizens Bank Park on the road it's two- six with a 543 erra so virtually night and day between home and away away I don't know if that's just kind of random 13 starts at home 12 on the road feels like a large enough sample size where that should be where it should be a meaningful sample size right uh maybe it's the dimensions of the ballpark maybe it's the environment not quite sure what it is but he has performed much much better at home than on the road and that kind of makes me feel like this is maybe a little more balanced than I think we're giving um Philly the credit for right like you kind of touched on he had a complete Game you know then he struggled some outings after that but he went against Atlanta last week a strikeouts to only one walk yes he gave up nine runs I'm sorry nine hits three runs but Atlanta's not as terrifying of a team against lefties this season as they have historically been that being said 0 and3 with a 519 ER in his last three starts against Atlanta so I mean there's no way to know when these two teams get together but it feels like this is one that slanted a little bit towards Atlanta simply on the pitching matchup simply because Morton's been better recently Sanchez has not been better recently Sanchez also has not had a ton of success against Atlanta in his career and at least Morton has been decent against Philly last five starts 0 and2 520 erra but he's got you know blow up in there then he's got six and two3 scoreless in there as well so close I think I'm giving it to Atlanta though what what would Morton have to do I know he's been consistent as of late he I think he hasn't had a bad start since that Milwaukee start which was really bad but what does Morton have to do to stick to stick to Philly in this series opener like what is it five innings is it six Innings what what do you need from Charlie Morton I think you need ideally you need a quality start you need six Innings three runs the bull pins a little bit taxed you had an extra innings game uh you had a starter leave early against the twins so ideally you need six Innings and three runs or less from Morton I think the big thing here is going to be he has to be careful not too lit mistake fast balls hurt him Philly has historically been pretty good at hitting fast balls uh since the All-Star break they haven't gotten a ton of them Atlanta's plan when they went that series last weekend was not to give up to not to throw too many fast balls to Philly Morton gave up two um gave up four runs in six Innings he kind of didn't necessarily I'm sorry that that was last year sorry um some of the Braves pitchers executed that plan pretty well Morton's obviously a big curveball guy I feel like that's what he has to do he has to make it through six Innings he has to get you three he has to keep it under three runs or three runs or less for Atlanta to have the bullpen able to finish off the series when you don't have your you probably don't have your studs and Joe Jimenez and Rell glacius available and I think with Sanchez I think it might not matter because he's gone the distance and he's gone six Innings but I think it's really gonna live up to the bullpen of Philadelphia because even though you know last start with Walker and their really bad loss to Houston even though that was a dreadful loss yesterday the bullpen wasn't that much great either so if you know Sanchez if he can go as long as he possibly can that's huge for Philadelphia because I think the the least amount of usage of that Bullpen on Thursday night for the Phillies is probably the best for this team moving forward see I'm going to counter and I'm going to say I don't think it matters what Sanchez does provided he doesn't get blown up it's down to the offense they scored six runs in that three- game series against Atlanta last week and the big three at the top of the order had a collected uh had a combined two hits great so I I don't think it matters what Sanchez does if Harper schwarber and Turner combin for one hit it doesn't matter what Christoper Sanchez DS they're probably not going to win they won one of those three games it was three to2 and it was they've got to get offense from top of the order against Charlie Morton um I mean it feels like some of these guys have had success against Morton in their careers um Bryce Harper has a 1. 222 Ops and 37 at bats against um against Charlie Morton Kyle scharber 26 at bats is a one 23 Ops like they've had some success Trey Turner has not he has a 457 Ops in 18 bats but the other two guys have had success off of Morton they just have to have to take advantage of the mistakes that Morton makes he'll make a mistake he's 40 years old he just they have to take advantage of it because they've historically been good and if they're not good Philly's not gonna win I'll go I'll go just quick on this because I know we got three other games to talk about in this happy hour of this series but you mentioned this office I think out of those three The Big Three I think Kyle schwarber is the one to really pay attention to the most he has been really cold the last seven games and that includ obviously some of the the Atlanta games but in his last seven Lindsay 143 273 250 slug Kyle schwarber we're talking Kyle schwarber with a lower slug than OBP right now so there's a problem there and I think it if it's important I I would even say Paramount for Kyle schwarber to get on on part of this weekend if Philadelphia wants to do something good against these Braves well you know thankfully Kyle scher's giv you plenty of value when it comes to stolen bases and defense so he can afford to be bad of the bat for a little while um okay looking at at Friday night's game two again 6:40 p.m. Eastern more tra still traditional broadcast NBC um NBC for Phillies B sport Southeast for Braves Saturday and Sunday are the weird broadcasts here but Ronaldo Lopez versus Ranger Suarez again a situation where based on recent performance Atlanta comes in with an advantage Lopez is um has a 129 erra and his last three starts no decisions but a 129 erra Ranger Suarez is 1-2 with a 441 so a situation here where last couple outings they haven't necessarily been great but then when you comp like when you look at what um what they have done in games um against the other team right like that's your big question here um two starts this year for Lopez against Philadelphia 11 Innings one run 16 strikeouts you flip around Sanchez he's got two starts against Atlanta a no decision and a loss in July he gave up five earned runs and five innings the end of March he gave up three earned runs and five innings into a no decision that I believe Atlanta went on to win so just on paper right there it feels like game two is an advantage to Atlanta as well in the starting pitching matchup yeah I mean he gave up two home runs in that loss in July to Atlanta but I will push back a little bit on this with Ranger Suarez and say that that last start and that ra you gave in the last three two of those starts are pre-injury he's just returning from that injury he just came back on the 24th and he had a pretty decent return against the Royals now he had a lot of offensive help something that was not the key in the last Atlanta series but he had a lot of offensive help in that Kansas City game I think JT real Muto had seven RBI in just that game alone uh so he went five innings he only let up one run in that start he had six strikeouts one walk if he can have that kind of performance with obviously some offensive help then I think it's a lot more of a challenge for the Braves but if you look at what he's done recently post All-Star break before the injury as well uh then yeah that's when I think the concern comes in but I would push back just a little bit I think ranger Suarez I don't think we saw everything that we could expect of him he's he was a great he's an All-Star pitcher for the team this year uh in that first return for the play uh from his injury so I could see him maybe open it up a little bit more so I'd be a little cautious with this start if I was the Braves that's right I I completely forgot he was out for a month and that was the first start after he came back so maybe some questions about how deep he'll go he did only go five innings through seven I think 72 pitches yeah City yeah not much now I will say that that was probably because of the score as well I'm not sure if he could have went farther um he had a pitch limit I remember Troy Brock going over it on inside the phillies.com saying that the pitch limit was at 8590 but he came out at 72 so yeah so another little you know question about how that's going to go there neither pitchers really had uh any significant issues with guys on the other team bow is three for five against slopez but they're they're all small sample sizes five at bats here four at bats here I will say I do think that Suarez gets a Break by aie alz having a broken RIS because Aussie alz this season is for five with two bombs off of Ranger Suarez so probably works out well for the Phillies that Aussie will not play in this game again he's not D back until sometime in midt um go into Saturday this is where your broadcasts get a little bit different it's a 7:15 PM start on Saturday on Fox National broadcast Max freed versus Zack Wheeler here we go this is the big stuff we're talking about both pitchers have been pretty decent recently Freed's one in one with a 312 RA in his last three starts wheeler is one in one with a 250 ER in his last three starts so two games where you feel like honestly either team can win neither uh hitter has really had significant issues with anybody on the other side I think really your only your only thing is what is it Travis darno has hit Zack Wheeler really well uh Ops just over a th and then for Philly JT Ru Muto 45 career R bats Ops over a thousand against freed so he's hit freed really well I'm sorry Turner as well Turner has a 1.0 39 Ops and 41 at bats so two guys who have done well um historically there but it feels like either team can win this one because both guys incredibly talented um have been pitching really well down the stretch and are having pretty strong Seasons yeah when we predicted the series last time it's between these two I said that the Braves were going to win the series 21 which I was right on but I was wrong on the way that they did it I thought that the only win that Philly was going to get was the wheeler uh start and that wasn't the case however Zack Wheeler has still been absolutely incredible this season I think he winds up being the runner up for the national league sa Young when it's all said and done in the month of August Lindsay he has had five starts in all five starts he has quality starts all of them all five in August and it's actually six of the last seven if you go back to the all-star break he only has one and it's against New York Yankees post All-Star break where he hasn't had a quality start uh so he's been absolutely incredible uh I think this is going to be the pitching match up of the weekend I I think this is the one that if you have to pick one game to watch I think this is the one that you tune into yeah which is tough because it's also the first day College footballs right so that's true but I mean you look at wheelers making his third start against Atlanta this year the first one back in March in that opening season opening Series no runs um five hits six Innings no walks five strikeouts takes a no decision gets a start against them last week bad luck loss quality start two runs on six hits no walks eight strikeouts takes a loss in a 3-2 Braves Victory um so kind of some bad luck there Flipside Fred really struggled against Philly uh he's made three starts against them this year the first one was that twoth thirds of an inning with three runs allowed through 40s something pitches came out in the first the second start July 5th was five runs on 11 hits and six Innings he took the loss but last week two runs four hits um in seven Innings no decision but Freds rided the ship recently I feel like Max Fred's finally gotten away from that injury when he came back from the injury uh mid July he had a rocky start in Colorado happens to a lot of people Rocky start in San Francisco and then quality start against Philly and then was one inning away from a quality start and only had one earned run in five innings against the twins this is the pitching matchup and I think this is the game that could go either way and I think I'm going to go on a limb and say this is the game where the team that wins this game is probably the team that's gonna win the series assuming it doesn't end in a tie that's a good point I I think that's a good way to say that I think we might be going into Saturday with it being even and that wouldn't be surprising to me his last start Minnesota that was the one that had that weird rain delay too that's the reason why his pitch count was so low yeah yeah Freeda freed pitched the first inning a rain away of 86 minutes he went out and played catch twice about 15 minutes each trying to simulate the Cadence of a of a up and down and up and down and so when he came back he only had four more innings in MSY he only went five innings um total like 76 pitches but two 15 pitch um catch sessions means he threw 105 or so that day we just only got 76 of them in the game um I'm excited to see that series I think this I think this pitching match up is going to be the one to watch and I kind of wish it wasn't on Saturday because I'm sure my my focus is gonna be shifted with multiple sports but there there'll be no doubt that this will be on one of the big screens for sure shout out to my wife by the way for just giving me a whole bunch of TVs love it love it yeah um and then Sunday September 1st the first day that rosters expand so you could see an additional player uh both pitcher and and position player on each team for this game Spencer swell and boach versus Aaron Nola on Sunday Night Baseball 7:10 PM there'll be a stat cast broadcast I'm sure always love those theer but this is something where Spencer swen Buck is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball as a rookie one in one with the 276 ER and his last three starts Aaron Nola's been even better 1 and0 within 095 ER in his last three starts Aaron Nola's been virtually Untouchable in his last three outings um so I don't really know if there's any significant like the the Aon NOA is the easy one to say Philly has the advantage here because of how good Aeron Nola's been but schollin bachan his two starts against Philly this year um three total runs on 10 hits and 12 and two3 innings he's 2 and0 with a 213 ra one walk to 15 strikeouts so he's been pretty he's been pretty good flip side this is Nola's fourth start of the year against Atlanta including second in a row he took a no decision last week two runs on eight hits and five in a third uh through exactly 100 pitches he's also allowed five homers to Atlanta this season don't quite know what to think here because the surface numbers the recent production Point Nola but the history against these teams Point towards Atlanta I'm super interested in this one I think schwellenbach is going to be and we mentioned it on uh the show a couple weeks ago not even I think it was beginning of this week actually I asked you do you think schwell andb has Ace material and I think this could be a nice Spotlight game on Sunday Night Baseball to show the nation that he has this so I'm really excited for this one but Aaron Nola you mentioned it he has been lights out his last three starts that last stting against Houston it was his best start all season minus the complete game he had earlier in the year I thought we saw Prime arinola like type of if he would have had that all season we're talking sa young candidate like what we saw five years ago from Aeron Nola we saw it in his last start so if he brings that out good luck Atlanta we're you're in for some trouble but those home runs Lindsay it's a problem it's an issue against Atlanta five of them you mentioned he had one of them in his last start that's actually the last time he let up a home run was against the Braves uh it's just something that he has had an issue with all season long he's let up a lot of home runs actually this year it's got better 23 and it's got better this month at least he's only let up four across five starts this month but again one of them is against Atlanta I'm gonna go out in a limb I said this in last series preview when we talked Braves and Phillies I'm say it again if Nola can limit the home runs if he can keep it to zero I think that Philly can run away with this game but if he lets up a couple home runs or maybe even just one like he did in the last start the Braves got a chance yeah the the thing that that I think gives Philly fans some hope is of the five home runs that Atlanta has hit off of arinola this year Austin Riley has one he's out Aussie alz has two he's out you have Orlando r with one and Matt Olsson with one so you know some of the guys Marcel Ozuna has one for nine against him this season O's obviously been the best B hitter on the Braves um Ramone laurana who's been surprisingly good for the Braves is one for three so a lot of the damage that's been done off of Arin Nola is guys who are not on this roster right now because they're on the injured list and I think that's probably a reason to feel cautiously optimistic about Aaron Nola I'm not gonna say turn it around because they've not been bad again he's not been bad against Atlanta he's just not been as good as he can be against the Braves and so I think that's I think that's definitely uh uh something there if we had to do final predictions here the series starts in just a couple hours uh four games Philly is up five games in the division right now a four game series who were you taking and why I'm leaning really hard towards the split just because it seems like that's just like the easy thing to say so I'm not going to make that my answer because I think that's a cop out yeah if you had to pick someone to win this Series 31 40 who were you picking and why there we go no splits I'm gonna go with the Atlanta Braves and the reason behind it is I think they have more to lose in this one I think that they are they're working really hard to get themselves up into the national league race they've looked really good against Minnesota Philly is trying to get back we've mentioned it on the show asking if are they are back uh but they still have a lot of flaws and we're starting to see that so give me Atlanta three games to one I'll even go on a wild uh wild bet here and say the one game they lose is the finale so there's a possibility that we see a possible Atlanta sweep going in the Sunday Night Baseball woo okay I feel like Atlanta always loses on Sunday Night Baseball they never seem to it's always like it's either Bryce elder or it's the end of a series and they get beat um if I had to pick a winner and this is tough I think I'm also going to go with Atlanta and people are going to say well you're right about Atlanta it's a copout but look at I mean Philly has struggled to score runs with the exception of those two Kansas City wins right those two 11 Run games you can't ignore that but outside of that they've Str Str to score runs um even the wins against Houston 0 and 3-2 in extras um and then they and they almost got no hit on that final thing you flip around and you know in Atlanta 106 86 5-1 against Minnesota Atlanta's coming in hotter I feel like some of these pitching matchups lean slightly Atlanta's way and I think like you said Atlanta has more to lose here right at or Atlanta needs these more and for all that it matters Philadelphia has been in the lead all season and has for some reason not been able to put Atlanta away and it's been long enough they've played three series Atlanta's won all three of them I'm beginning to feel like this is one of those things that we can't quite quantify that there's just something missing when these two teams are matching up in the regular season because postseason is different as we know Philly has owned Atlanta the last two postseasons easily but for some reason in the regular season this year specifically there is something about this Philly team where they cannot get it done against Atlanta and I'm worried that having a large division lead having five games of a lead I don't know if the environment of Citizens Bank Park is going to have the same intensity as it did in the postseason and be some something that can push these guys over the top and I just I don't have that faith and I think that's why if I'm picking a team to win it's Atlanta 3-1 over Philly in the series honestly I feel like the most likely outcome is a split but we said we weren't going to pick splits here so if I had to pick a team to win I'm picking Atlanta 3-1 acknowledging and understanding that that kind of goes against um against probably what the odds would be in a you know and and and in Vegas but that's just kind of what it feels like because Philly hasn't really shown the ability to do it to put Atlanta away in the regular season postseason is different they haven't done it in the regular season and I don't know if they're going to do it now yeah leave the leave the data in this one today for the nerd cast on Sunday night I'm with you I'm going with my gut and I think the same thing if I had the pick not a series split but because I think it's going to be such a close series I'll even go and say one more thing before we close out every single one of these games will have a save opportunity n fitting that's how close all these games will be no blowouts no blowouts you heard it from Christian uh this has been a special happy hour edition of first pitch if you're listening on audio do us a favor subscribe to uh subscribe to the feed 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