Steve Kornacki: National polling average shows a close race heading into the Harris-Trump debate

IT COULD BE ONE OF THE LAST MAJOR EVENTS IN THIS RACE. WE'VE GOT EVERY SINGLE END OF COVERAGE THIS HOUR. TOPICS OF BOTH CAMPAIGNS, POLITICAL INSIDERS, AND OF COURSE, OUR TEAM OF REPORTERS ON THE GROUND IN KEY BATTLEGROUNDS, AND THE GREAT STEVE KORNACKI HERE WITH ME. GARRETT HAAKE. MONICA ALBA IS COVERING THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN. THE DATE OF THE BIG CONVERSATION THAT YOU HAD WITH FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP. TELL ME WHAT -- ARE? >> Reporter: KRISTEN, THE FORMER PRESIDENT IS EAGER TO GET ON THE DEBATE STAGE. AFTER MY CONVERSATION WITH HIM AND SOME OF HIS KEY ADVISERS, HE WAS KIND OF PUNTING DEBATE PREPARATION UNTIL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. I'M TOLD HE REALLY DID DIAL IN OVER THE WEEKEND. NOW, HE'S EAGER TO TRY TO USE WHAT HE'S BEEN PREPARING FOR ON THE DEBATE STAGE ITSELF. AS YOU POINTED OUT, HE TELLS ME ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING PARTS OF BATTLING, HARRIS, THE IDEA THAT SHE CHANGED POSITIONS ON KEY ISSUES. AT LEAST IN THEIR PLANNING, THEY ARE GOING TO TRY TO USE WHATEVER THEY THINK THE MOST LIBERAL ARE THE MOST OUT OF THE MAINSTREAM ANSWER SHE HAS GIVEN ON ANY PARTICULAR QUESTION ON ANY PARTICULAR POLICY, AND SUGGEST THAT THAT IS IN FACT HER TRUE BELIEF, HER TRUE POLICY, REGARDLESS OF WHAT SHE WOULD SAY ON THE DEBATE STAGE. TRUMP AND HIS CAMPAIGN, THEY HAVE A PLAN, THEY HAVE A STRUCTURE. THEY PUT GUARDRAILS IN PLACE TO KEEP THEM ON THIS MISSION. WHAT DONALD TRUMP DECIDES TO DO ONCE THOSE LIGHTS TURN ON ON THAT DEBATE STAGE, IT'S ONLY UP TO DONALD TRUMP. >> AND THAT BRINGS US TO THE CRITICAL QUESTION. ONE OF THE BIG X FACTORS, AND ONE OF THE BIG ASPECTS OF TONIGHT'S DEBATE IS THAT IT IS DONALD TRUMP WILL SUDDENLY BE THE CANDIDATE WHOSE AGE AND AGILITY IS IN FOCUS, GIVEN THAT HE IS ABOUT 20 YEARS OLDER THAN VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS. HOW'S THE CAMPAIGN DEALING WITH THAT QUITE VACH HOW ARE THEY DEALING WITH THAT? >> IT DOESN'T INVOLVE THE KIND OF STRUCTURE THAT THE HEARERS TEAM USES. I KNOW THAT DAVE DRILLED THIS SPECIFICALLY. THEY SAY THIS IS SOMEONE WHO REGULARLY HOLDS RALLIES THAT GOES 90 MINUTES, OR TWO HOURS, REGULARLY DOES HOURS OF INTERVIEWS, AND IS QUICK ON HIS FEET WITH HOW HE ANSWERS QUESTIONS. HE WILL GET MORE TOUGH QUESTIONS FOR MORE DIRECTION TONIGHT THAN I THINK HE IS USED TO GETTING UP LATE. MOST OF HIS LONGER INTERVIEWS HAVE BEEN WITH FRIENDLIER ALLIES, OR IN PODCASTS, FOR EXAMPLE. THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT OF A SLOWER BURN THAN HE MY GET FROM HARRIS. HOW THE VICE PRESIDENT DECIDES TO GET UNDER DONALD TRUMP'S SKIN. NO ONE WHO INTERVIEWS AND IS ESSENTIALLY TRYING TO GET UNDER HIS SKIN, OR UPSET HIM IN A WAY THAT KAMALA HARRIS WILL LIKELY TRY TO DO TONIGHT. MAGNETEK IS PERFECTLY STASH >> THAT TAKES US PERFECTLY TO MONICA ALBA. MONICA, WHAT ARE YOUR SOURCES TELLING YOU ABOUT WHAT HER PLAN IS? BOTH TO TRY TO GET UNDER FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP'S SKIN, AND ALSO TO CONVINCE CANDIDATES? >> Reporter: THEY HAVE BEEN TRYING ALL DAY LONG TO TRY AND GET TO HIM WHEN POSSIBLE. THESE BILLBOARDS WE ARE SEEING ALL OVER PHILADELPHIA THAT ARE TRYING TO POKE SOME FUN AT THE FORMER PRESIDENT, AND HIS OBSESSION WITH CROWD SIZES, WHICH IS A TEAM WE ALSO SAW TODAY. ANNA ADD THAT WAS RELEASED WITH FORMER PRESIDENT OBAMA TALKING ABOUT THAT IN HIS NATIONAL CONVENTION SPEECH. TAKING A PAGE OUT OF DONALD TRUMP'S OWN PLAYBOOK. YOU WILL ALSO SEE THAT IN THE FORM OF SOME OF THE FORMER TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WILL BE COMING HERE TONIGHT TO TRY TO TALK ABOUT SOME OF THE PERSPECTIVES. AND HERE IS WHY HE THEN LEFT, DECIDED TO BECOME COMPLETE CRITICS OF IT. ON THE OTHER, THAT'S BECAUSE THEY KNOW THIS MAY BE A MOMENT THAT COMES FROM -- BETWEEN DONALD TRUMP AND KAMALA HARRIS. THEY COULD BE DEROGATORY COMMENTS. IT'S A BIG QUESTION HERE FOR THE VICE PRESIDENT. EVEN IF SHE'S BEEN IN THE BACKGROUND, IN THE PARIS FEEL. THEY KNOW SHE'S GOING TO TRY TO LAY OUT HER VISION OF THAT. AND THAT IS IN TWO MINUTES -- THE IDEA OF HOW THESE TWO PEOPLE WHO HAVE NEVER MET INTERACT, WHAT DOES THAT LOOK LIKE, HOW DOES IT PLAY OUT ON STAGE. AND OF COURSE, THESE MOMENTS WE'VE SEEN FROM THE FORMER PRESIDENT. SO THE VICE PRESIDENT IS READY. HAVING THESE PREPLANNED RESPONSES TO IT, I'M TOLD. WELL, IT'S GOING TO BE FASCINATING. THE FACT THAT THEY'VE NEVER MET BEFORE. AND THIS WILL BE DONALD TRUMP'S SEVENTH GENERAL ELECTION DEBATE. THIS IS INCREDIBLE TO THINK ABOUT. OF COURSE, GOING ALL THE WAY BACK TO 2016. ALTHOUGH SHE IS NO STRANGER TO THE DEBATE STAGE. >> IS ACKLEY. AND THAT IS WHERE YOU ARE STARTING TO SEE THE EDUCATION -- EXECUTION GAME. HE'S BEEN DOING THIS FOR DECADES. EVERY TIME HE'S PARTICIPATED IN SOMETHING LIKE THIS, SO THEY HAVE A LOT TO STUDY FROM. THEY ARE TRYING TO ALSO RAISE THIS ISSUE, SOMETHING THAT THEY BRING AGAIN. WHEN THE CANDIDATE WHOSE TURN IT ISN'T TO SPEAK IS GOING, THIS WOULD BE A MAJOR ISSUE. AND THEY CONTINUE TO SAY, IF THEY WANT AMERICANS TO HAVE AN UNFILTERED VIEW OF WHAT DONALD TRUMP IS LIKE ON THE DEBATE STAGE. THAT IS WHY HE IS RAISING THOSE KIND OF THINGS. ALSO TRYING TO CONVEY TO AMERICANS WHILE SHE DOESN'T HAVE AS MUCH EXPERIENCE WITH IT, SHE DOES. THEY WILL POINT BACK TO THOSE THINGS, I THINK WE CAN EXPECT. >> FANTASTIC REPORTING TO START US OFF, GARRETT AND MONICA. JOIN ME NOW FROM MICHIGAN, NBC'S SHOPPERS THERE. TALKING TO VOTERS ABOUT WHAT THEY ARE WATCHING FOR TONIGHT. THEY ARE IN GRAND RAPIDS. OF COURSE, THIS IS A KEY SWING TOWN IN A KEY SWING STATE. IT IS GOING TO BE CLOSE IN MICHIGAN, AS IT WILL BE IN THE REST OF THE COUNTRY. WHAT ARE THESE VOTERS TELLING YOU ABOUT THAT THEY WILL BE WATCHING FOR TONIGHT? >> WELL, I WILL TELL YOU, A LOT OF PEOPLE SAY THEY ARE PLANNING TO WATCH CLOSELY. A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE EXCITED ABOUT THE PROCESS, SEEING THESE CANDIDATES ON STAGE TOGETHER. THIS IS A TOWN WHERE IT'S A SUBURBAN AREA OF GRAND RAPIDS. CERTAINLY MORE HIGHLY EDUCATED THAN YOUR AVERAGE AMERICAN TOWN. BACK IN 2016, DONALD TRUMP WON BY 14 PERCENTAGE POINTS. AND IN 2020, HE ONLY WON BY TWO PERCENTAGE POINTS. YOU SEE THAT HAPPENING. I WANTED TO SEE WHAT PEOPLE ARE EXPECTING. LET'S LISTEN TO SOME OF THOSE CONVERSATIONS. >> WHEN IT WAS BIDEN AND TRUMP, YOU ARE THINKING OF NOT VOTING AT ALL? AND RIGHT NOW WITH THAT BEING HARRIS AND TRUMP -- >> I THINK IS VERY IMPORTANT. >> WHY'S THAT? >> SOME PEOPLE THINK SHE'S NOT VERY STRONG. I HOPE THAT HER PERFORMANCE TONIGHT WILL SHOW THAT SHE IS. >> Reporter: WOULD IT BE HELPFUL IF SHE WOULD -- >> I JUST REALIZED ALSO PRE- COVID WHILE TRUMP WAS IN OFFICE. I WANT TO GET BACK TO THAT. >> WHILE FINANCE PEOPLE SAY THEY WILL BE WATCHING, NOT EVERYONE WILL BE TUNING IN. I SPOKE TO ONE MOM WHO SAYS SHE WILL NOT WATCH TONIGHT AT LEASE. WHEN I EXPECTED THAT HAD TO DO WITH THE DEBATE, SHE SAYS I DON'T THINK IT'S SOMETHING THEY SHOULD BE LISTENING TO. SHE SCARED THAT IS GOING TO BE TOO CRAZY. THAT SHE'S NOT COMFORTABLE ENOUGH HAVING HER KIDS WATCH A PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE. >> OF COURSE, THE MOMS WILL HAVE THE BIG INFLUENCE OVER WHO WINS THIS ELECTION. CHECK BURSAR, THANK YOU SO MUCH. TURNING NOW TO STEVE KORNACKI AT THE BIG BOARD. SO GREAT TO HAVE YOU, TO REALLY SET THE STAGE FOR US. WE'VE BEEN TALKING FOR A LONG TIME. THIS IS A VERY CLOSE RACE. HOW DO YOU SEE THIS PLAYING OUT? >> THIS IS THE AVERAGE OF ALL OF THE NATIONAL POLLS THAT ARE OUT HERE RIGHT NOW. NOW THAT'S DOWN TO TAKE FROM WHERE IT WAS BEFORE THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE MORE RECENT POLLS THAT HAD THEM BRING IT IS AVERAGE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER. IT ALSO LEADS TO ONE OF THE BIG QUESTIONS AS WE HEAD TOWARD ELECTION DAY. REMEMBER IN 2016 AND 2020, WE SAW VERY BIG DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE POPULAR VOTE IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE. ACTUALLY DECIDING TRUMP WON IN 2020, DESPITE -- IN 2016, AND THEN NARROWLY IN 2020. THAT DYNAMIC PROCESS THAT HE CONTINUES TO HAVE THE ADVANTAGE IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE. IF IT'S CHANGED, THIS COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH THEM BEING AHEAD. LOOKING AT THIS RIGHT NOW, HERE'S THE POLLING AVERAGE IN THE CORE BATTLEGROUND STATES. MAINLY WHAT YOU SEE WITHIN MARGINS. AND AS WE SAY, ONE HALF OF ONE PERCENTAGE POINT. DRAW YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS ONE. A LITTLE BIT BETTER THAN A FOUR POINT AVERAGE RIGHT NOW. THAT'S THE OTHER QUESTION WE HAVE. THAT'S THE QUESTION OF THE POLLING MISS. NO STATES THEY WERE OFF MORE THAN WISCONSIN. AND THAT'S WEEKS BEFORE THE ELECTION. IT ENDED UP BEING LESS THAN ONE POINT, JOE BIDEN'S MARGIN OF VICTORY THERE. AND POLLING WAS OFF TO A PRETTY BIG DEGREE THERE AS WELL IN 2020. THESE MISSES THAT WE'VE SEEN, IT'S NOT BEEN POPPING UP IN EVERY STATE OF THE SAME DEGREE. IT'S BEEN MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE NORTHERN SWING STATES. WHITE VOTERS WITHOUT FOUR YEAR DEGREES. AND THEY WERE UNDERESTIMATED IN STATES LIKE WISCONSIN IN '16 AND '20. ARE THEY BEING UNDERESTIMATED AGAIN? WE REALLY WON'T KNOW UNTIL ELECTION DAY. WE WON'T KNOW UNTIL WE SEE THE POLLING IN THOSE STATES. IF THAT HAPPENS AGAIN, THESE NUMBERS END UP MEANING SOMETHING VERY DIFFERENTLY. THEN THESE NUMBERS ARE VERY ENCOURAGING FOR DEMOCRATS. I THINK WE SEE THESE POLL TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. AND I THINK THIS ONE FROM THAT NEW YORK TIMES POLL, ASKING VOTERS TO MAKE UP YOUR MIND, YOU NEED TO KNOW MORE ABOUT A CANDIDATE? 3 TO 1 CANDIDATE SAY THAT ABOUT KAMALA HARRIS THAN DONALD TRUMP. THAT MIGHT BE A GOOD THING. IT'S THE CHANGE VERSUS STATUS QUO QUESTIONS HERE. A MAJORITY OF VOTERS IN THIS POLL SAY THEY KNOW SHE IS MORE OF THE SAME. SHE IS THE VICE PRESIDENT IN AN UNPOPULAR ADMINISTRATION. TRUMP, A FORMER PRESIDENT, SAYING HE REPRESENTS MAJOR CHANGE. YOU SEE THE OPPORTUNITY WITH OTHER VOTERS WANTED TO KNOW SOMETHING ABOUT HER. THAT THIS NUMBER CHANGE FOR HER AT ALL? >> IT'S ALL THOSE NUMBERS THAT YOU JUST LAID OUT. A ROAD MAP OF WHAT THEY WANT