Cram session: Yahoo experts share their final piece of draft advice | Yahoo Fantasy Forecast

[Music] it's Friday August 30th I'm Matt Haron welcome to the Yahoo fantasy forecast presented by Toyota the official Automotive partner of the NFL and it is a hell of a day to talk ball and join me to do just that is a whole lot of people because we have made it folks this is the final pod of cram week and it concludes our draft season coverage and we know for the majority of you your most important drafts will be this holiday weekend how do we know this well we have some internal data to share nearly 70% of all Yahoo fantasy drafts will take place in the next three to five days that is millions with a capital M millions of drafts also a reminder and oh boy Are You Gonna Miss This live read if you sign up for a fantasy league on Yahoo fantasy you will be automatically entered to win $1 million that's a whole hell of a lot of money if any of the players you start score a touchdown in the week one games on NBC and peacock that's Ravens at Chiefs Packers at Eagles Rams at Lions whole lot of good players right there you're going to earn bonus entries into the sweep Stakes the deadline is September 5th so stop wasting time get your fantasy league going on Yahoo right now with all that said let's get into it for some of you we know you've been bombarded with information all month hell maybe even all summer and now you get to finally use that information this weekend we know for a lot of you probably you know maybe even most of you you're cramming all this info after having a life this offseason don't know what that's like must be nice we know the time is of the essence some of you may have a draft as you're listening to this aggressive but don't hate it or more likely you have one in mere hours which is why today's pod includes every single Yahoo fantasy analyst sharing their final piece of draft advice it's also why this is the shortest pot of the year you you got to get this thing going here you you got to get this podcast in and you got to get to your draft so without further Ado you will hear in order in this first segment Andy Barons Sal vetry and Kate Muk share their final piece of draft advice Andy take it away the best advice I can give heading into the last big draft weekend uh is fairly simple difficult to execute but fairly simple to say and that is I want you to get out to a hot start I want you to worry about the month of September sweep September if you can I don't want you thinking about distant by weeks I don't want you thinking about strength of schedule in November or December and I certainly don't want you collecting a bunch of injured players at your draft like you can take one of let's say Nick chub Jonathan Brooks Hollywood Brown TJ hackinson but you can't collect all of them don't make long-term plans and think that you're going to have some Unstoppable Juggernaut by the time November rolls around let me give you a little data to support this last year in Yahoo public leagues if you started 3-0 you had a 73% chance to make your League's playoffs if you started 0 and three you had a 12% chance you were cooked it wasn't happening you weren't making it no matter what kind of team you put together for November it didn't really matter if you got out to the Gat low the best favor that you can do yourself in fantasy football is to get out to a hot start it makes this game so much simpler my final piece of draft advice your drafts are here it's ready to roll you need some strategy you know all the player takes by this point the final piece of draft advice that I want to share with you because this has burned me in the past and I don't want that to be you this year is Beware of the injury discount players now what do I mean by this I'm looking more so at some of these guys who are coming off of serious injuries and probably leaning more towards the veterans here I'm looking at Nick chub I'm looking at TJ hackinson these guys like a Nick chub who's going in round eight of fantasy drafts right now let me just tell you who he's going around he's going around guys like Deontay Johnson a potential number one receiver for his team he's going around guys like Devin Singletary basically the shend number one running back for the New York Giants those guys are healthy to start week one Nick chub the reports right now he won't be ready for week one beat reporters are saying that he's going to be trending to maybe go on the pup list Miss at least four weeks and the team is saying they're hopeful to have him back at some point this year you don't want these headaches even when he does come back if he comes back it's the type thing with these older players you know hackinson is the same case who might come back mid-season once they're back are they really back how many weeks does it take to get ramped up for them how many weeks does it take to get back to their full explosiveness usually at least a couple maybe even a month or two so you don't want these headaches when they're back it's the worst thing I starting them over this guy am I not how much am I getting and you have frustration just don't want those headaches we've seen it every single year guys this time of year they start to get healthier you see chub he's sprinting on the field he's doing these heavy squats all these things but the doctors will tell you these aren't the things that you need to see we saw it last year with javante Williams we saw it the year before that with JK Dobbins guys coming off of serious injuries serious knee injuries like a Nick chub these guys they get a lot of hype the season starts it's either a reinjury or not the same player or most if not the entire season so beware of these injury discounts there's a lot of them in your drafts now I will say the one thing is this isn't a you can't ever draft an injured player you have to take it Case by case I'm talking about the serious injuries guys who are going to be back week one like a Christian mcaffry there's no concerns they're saying that he's ready to play you don't have to worry about that younger players were going to be fine they said that this is their timeline of a week two or a week three maybe a Jonathan Brooks of the Panthers younger quicker return to play they're not concerned about it lingering this is kind of the timeline it's on it's on track okay that's fine same thing with some guys dealing with smaller injuries but those serious injuries beware of them when you're ready to click just think twice about how many headaches you're going to have during the season trying to start start those guys once they're actually back for my final piece of draft advice I want to remind you all of one of my favorite fantasy football tips it is always better to start positional runs do not finish them it could be super tempting to hop into a positional run once you see it unfolding I get it your palms start to sweat you get a little antsy but chill out I get I get it you don't want to be stuck with slim Pickins while everybody else has some top quarterback top tier tight end options but I need you to remain calm I implore you to take advantage of positional runs and pivot in other directions while fantasy managers are feasting on those positional runs don't draft a player just because that is how a particular round in the draft or two are unfolding if there's a slew of quarterbacks off the board that's a great time to Pivot and take advantage of some players at other positions maybe tight end wide receiver running back that are being neglected because people feel like they have to go with the positional runs maybe tight ends are on a run that's okay there will be options don't panic and buy into a positional run just because it's there always deploy a steadfast determination not to overreact to how the draft board plays out and play the board as best as you possibly can which usually just means drafting the best player available and not getting swayed by all of the other managers in your league so you heard from Andy on why you need to win the month of September s told you to stay away from guys coming off with serious injuries and Kate wants you to start those positional runs not end them after the break we hear from the rest of the Yahoo fantasy analysts right after this all right we're back and for the first part of the segment you're going to hear in order panowski and Dan Titus talk about what strategies you should employ at the wide receiver and running back position roll the clip people always asking me what's the biggest thing you need to know going into your fantasy draft roster build what am I looking for I'll tell you what you want you want the best wide receiver room in the league you want wide receivers Who start themselves because what you don't want to do is be week to week like uh which wide receiver three or four which fringy guy do I play who's due for Spike week this guy had three targets last week I'm not going to play him then he has a big game this guy had a big game last week I'm not going to I'm going to play him and he has an off week you want those receivers Who start themselves and my builds are going to be usually one running back I like it can be round one two three or four it doesn't matter I'm going to pound the receivers just unbelievable depth at the quarterback position you can do well at any price point I'm getting a lot Jordan love this year I'm fine with that Trevor Lawrence is my qb2 in a lot of leagues I'm fine with that maybe Jaden Daniels breaks the game at football you don't have to go nuts at quarterback but but receiver dries up quickly running backs we all know that position is always chaotic even tight end I don't think it's that deep but there's nine or 10 I feel really good about I can wait till the second wave comes around I want you to have the best receiver room in the league I want you to tweet at me EX at me whatever they call that platform and share it with me and we will ride into the Glorious Championship sunset together dominate at wide receiver that's where you need to be in 2024 my fantasy advice for y'all is to execute a hero RB draft strategy now what that means is you're going to be spending one of your early round picks that's rounds one through three on a running back why do I say to do that when zero RB has been all the rage for the last several seasons especially considering all the viable prolific pass catchers available in the early rounds it's because when you look past rounds five and beyond that dead zone is ugly don't worry about it don't be frustrated by trying to hit the jackpot by Landing that rb2 that's going to eventually be an rb1 build out that depth later in the draft focus on getting one RB to Anchor your fantasy Squad this year that way you can avoid the dead zone pick up some value lated rounds because there's plenty of wide receivers available in those mid rounds that you don't need to spend up and go wide receiver tight end quarterback right away so avoid the dead zone get yourself a hero RB so you heard a strategy for wide receivers and running running backs up next you're going to hear Dalton Delon on what to do with the quarterback and tight end position and then you'll hear from terara Roberts on how you can maximize your draft board my last piece of draft advice heading into the season would be to make sure to get your guys every league has different settings or a completely different type of drafting room so it's tough to give a blanket recommendation generally I like targeting running quarters backs and an upper tier tight end this season and I'm fine grabbing an anchor back early too but don't worry too much about 8p and go after the guys you want more than anything else my guys this year include Bree Hall Devon Anan Cooper cup Malik neighbors Kenneth Walker and of course Anthony Richardson but I will be wrong about many players this year predicting football is hard so Above All Else make sure to leave your draft with players you wanted to Target heading into it good luck in your 2024 fantasy drafts as you are wrapping up your fantasy drafts I want to give you one last minute piece of advice to absolutely crush your fantasy drafts and it is use the draft board to your advantage during your draft keep an eye on your league mates drafting around you you can use their rosters in order to gauge your picks let's use an example here let's say that you are drafting in the 10th spot and it's round five your turn is coming up and you've got a few guys queued up but you're torn you don't know which one to take you love them all and maybe you're looking at one wide receiver two quarterbacks that you're trying to decide between but you love them both you'd be okay with either one look at the rosters for the 11th and 12th spot if one of those guys already has a quarterback and you've got two quarterbacks that you're perfectly fine with taking only one of those League Mates is going to potenti take a quarterback you are literally guaranteed to get one of the guys that you like so instead of taking the quarterback there you can just take the wide receiver he is going to be right there for you and you can just grab the quarterback at your next turn in round six you get two of the guys that you hued up no problem everything goes perfectly for you there another great example would be maybe you're a fan of late round drafting for tight ends maybe that's your strategy and you're trying to figure out just how late you're trying to wait figure out three tight ends maybe that you're comfortable with taking watch the tight ends start to fill up on teams you can use the board to literally play a game of chicken using the draft board to your advantage pays off even more if you know what your league mates Tendencies are it decreases the chances of you getting sniped and it increases your potential chances for Value picks shout out to Dalton and Tara there's one last piece of advice to give and what do you know it's coming from me your boy and while I bet you think you know what I'm going to talk about I may just surprise you stay tuned after this final break welcome back to our final segment our keys to winning presented by Toyota the official Automotive partner of the NFL and here's my keys to winning your draft AKA my final piece of draft advice do not be afraid of uncertainty at the running back position in rounds two to three this year because well if you are I don't think you're going to be making very many picks in that range and sure you can go full zero RB but my personal favorite builds have been hero RB builds this year and if you miss out on that first tier of backs your cmc's your Bree Hall your bejan Robinson love those picks but maybe you're just in a Range to snag a tier one wide receiver that's the guy that you liked at the board at that point and then you don't get a shot at jir Gibbs or Jonathan Taylor around that round one two turn I think still think you're going to want at least one anchor running back there but all the guys with adps between 13 and 35 overall at running back carry some degree of uncertainty or at least one possible ceiling Andor floor diminishing red flag it's just going to be about picking your spots here and deciding which risk you think is worth taking so with that said let's go through the options and you can weigh these risks and decide which ones matter and which ones don't for yourself let's start with saquon Barkley 14th overall ADP he is probably going to have a touchdown cealing problem sharing the backfield with Jaylen Herz we also saw his rushing success rate yards per carry and explosive run rate metrics dip last year then there's Derrick Henry who technically has climbed into round one on Yahoo ADP uh pretty aggressive but I'm going to include him here anyways because in general across the industry that is where he goes I bet he's going to go there in your drafts this weekend and he is my primary or at least one of my primary round two running back targets cuz he's a legendary player transferring to a great ecosystem yet he's also a 30 y old back with an intense mileage count Henry is not a normal NFL running back but this is typically the exact archetype of player we try to fade at the position then there's Kiren Williams 17th overall ADP he's goingon to have to contend with Blake Corin being added to the backfield after wearing down under heavy workloads in 2024 there's just like a non zero% chance Blake corm looks good enough to turn this into a pseudo committee there's also all the punt return nonsense circulating on the internet right now but of course you can listen to the episode earlier this week with s well that's not really something you want to be panicking about at this point let's talk about Isaiah Pacho 18th overall ADP he has never consistently owned a passing down role for the Kansas City Chiefs the team mostly throws at the goal line too under Patrick Holmes who led the league in completions inside the 10 yard line last year now they've signed samaj perine to possibly siphon off some of that very passing down work I mentioned in the vaed Jerick McKinnon role there's Travis etn 22nd over overall ADP who averaged 3.7 yards per carrier from week 10 on as the Jaguars one of the worst Run games in the NFL last season they didn't change much structurally or Personnel wise in the offseason and spent another few months insisting that they want to lighten his workload then there's Devon Anan 25th overall ADP he is without question one of the most explosive players in the league but there's almost no chance he becomes a true bcow back given his size and player archetype he's gonna need to rely on both extreme efficiency and stay healthy to beat this draft slot finally we have Josh Jacobs 33rd overall ADP he was just straight up not a plus starter in Las Vegas last year he's coming off a Down Season and now he plays for a coach who typically emphasizes a committee approach his multi-year contract is a bit of a farce so that isn't exactly the positive signal of commitment many believe it is so again this was purposefully designed to only present the bare case for each of those backs if you've listened to the show this summer you know I'm not out on all those guys or anything like that this exercise was just meant to show you that this position is littered with uncertainty early on and sometimes as we know in fantasy football when you lean into uncertainty or ambiguity and it goes your way you're going to find your way to some significant profit and I think this is all important because while wide receivers are all the rage and you know that's where I butter or I should say spread the ghee on my sprouted grain bread the more I thought about fantasy football this year the more I'm convinced it all starts at running back how you approach and if you hit on the ever evolving running back Position will decide the fate of the rest of your team no pressure that is going to do it for us today the next time you hear from me oh baby we will officially be getting ramped up for week one it is finally nay mercifully here and we'll be back on Tuesday morning after the holiday weekend as Andy Baron joins me to share our boldest fantasy predictions for the 2024 season accountability who cares we're just talking bold we're just talking aggressive we're just talking fun and on that pod speaking of fun we're also going to reveal our fall podcast calendar we have not one not two but three new weekly shows to debut and we are so excited to share that news with you this is really going to be the best season ever on the podcast but until then Happy Drafting and we are out