Best Bets Today: MLB | CFB | NFLX | TRAVERS STAKES Picks +Predictions

[Music] all right welcome in last call here wagertalk.com I'm Joe rer we've got a loaded slate here today welcome back college football week zero in full effect we've got the final week three of the NFL uh pre-season games uh to take a look at and of course plenty of Major League Baseball as well as a couple of uh races coming up here over the next two weeks that involve a whole lot of money and a whole lot of uh pretty good opportunities to cash a few tickets at the track and nobody better to help us do just that than Sean Alvarez joining us here from wagertalk.com and uh Sean you got to love it I can't believe it the Traverse it feels like all we've been talking about is Saratoga by the way way because Belmont decided uh to embark on a 95-year uh construction project which will never get done so everyone will be at Saratoga uh for the near future but the Travers is always one of the biggest events and it's no different this year because it's really the girl versus the boys in this race here so talk to us what are we looking at here at the Travers today at Saratoga yeah it's it's definitely uh an exciting time especially you know we always uh like and point to racing at Saratoga but you get the $1.3 million grade one Travers stakes and like you mentioned uh not only are we going to see some horses that sound a little familiar if you were uh paying attention during the Triple Crown Trail in the Kentucky Derby um prep races and whatnot but like you mentioned we get the Phillies vers Philly vers the boys and while there's not a lot of world beaters that uh definitely uh makes for a good betting race and looking forward to trying to cast some tickets later today well we thought we were going to get torpedo Anna uh in the pness right but Kenny mCP was like yeah no not so fad Mystic Dans in that race didn't want anything to do with it Mystic Dan not in this race here but a lot of really good three-year-olds uh at Saratoga in this race here so what are the chances that thorpedo Anna gets it done and beats the boys you know she definitely got no favors uh throwing her way with the with the drawing the rail from on the side but you know she's she definitely has enough uh a little bit of enough quickness from the gate to at least settle into a nice position not necessarily get shuffled back but you know um we're definitely going to see how good she is and and and whether or not she can beat you know beat up on these uh the the males like she's done with the Phillies because you know she's four for four in her last four races and she's doing so by with an average winning length of four and a half length so if she can put Force some of those efforts and and really dig in I I think she's got a big shot um against the against the males uh here later today all right so uh break it down for us here because I'm seeing uh door knock all the horses that we've talked about over this entire stretch are in this race I'm talking about the The Who's Who of three-year-olds here so conditions appear to be pretty set no problem uh there Sean so break it down who are the horses that we should be focusing our attention on yeah so I kind of mentioned you know about the number one torpedo Anna at 3 to one I definitely think that she's a she's a big player in this in this race I not only is she she my top pick but I can definitely see her maybe maybe even kind of uh you know putting this field away at the top of the stretch but if she does it she's gonna have to work really hard on doing it because if you look through the top one through um you know the the rest of the field the eight eight horses a good majority of these horses want to be on or near the lead so I don't necessarily think they're going to go too fast too early I I hope that doesn't necessarily ruin the race but I def I I think there's going to be um you know a battle for that pace position and when those when those uh horses eyeball each other in the front you know they're you know pack animals and some of these horses don't necessarily want horses to go in front of them so that's going to lead to a little bit of uncomfortable up front and maybe um point to those closers and one of those closers I like that we we've talked about in the Kentucky Derby we talked about in the pness and we've talked about last uh you know a month ago or so in the gim Dandy is the two Sierra Leon um this is a horse that's going to take back early doesn't want to be anywhere near that lead um it it always comes flying now this is a horse that Chad Brown had to uh quote unquote take Tyler gaffle onol as he was lugging in during the stretch they've changed the bit in the horse's mouth to give him quote unquote a little bit more power steering um so you know whether or not he can straighten up in the stretch is is kind of the question but I think he's going to have enough Pace to run into you get Flav and Pratt and like I said uh you're not going to get cheated in the stretch because he's gonna come flying it's just a matter of you know what kind of pace he he has to run into and if he's good enough um and then you know another horse that I I think that you kind of want to play more on the defensive side at least in my opinion um that's going to be up and near the lead is the seven door knock at five to2 Luis sias rides he's a very aggressive uh jockey so he should have no problem getting on um or at least in touch with the pace and I really like what he did in the grade one hasell last month uh out at Monmouth they weren't necessarily going fast early he's gonna have to go a little bit faster today um but he was able to not only give up the lead but he he battled back and won by a length a length and a quarter so you know it's it's he's one of those horses that like I mentioned when other horses eyeball him he he digs in a little bit doesn't want to uh necessarily give up the lead so in a race like this where I I do think that there's going to be a lot of uh at least presence up front you want that horse that's got a lot of heart and understands his job reaches for the wire and and doesn't really want to get past so those are kind of the horses that I'm keying on uh the one torpedo Anna the two Sierra Leon and the Seven dorno 5 to2 Y what kind of convers ation would we be having about door knock if he didn't have the one post at the Derby uh because this horse is we'd be having a totally different conversation I mean obviously the Haskell the horses weren't of the same caliber he's going to face today but Louis SZ out on the seven post and fierceness next to him so there's plenty of speed in this race I guess the question is uh is it going to be so fast that nobody's going to catch him what what do you think is going to happen is this speed win is this a wire wire spot yeah I mean and we've seen that before uh one of them was with door knock at the Belmont um wasn't necessarily going too fast wasn't necessarily uh you know getting eyeballed up front so that's definitely a worry that I have where you know the jockeys don't necessarily want to get in the speed duel and and you know the likes of like like you mentioned the seven door knock if he gets an easy lead and they don't want to go you know this race might be over after the first call and that's the problem uh here with Louis sayz bastard uh all right so let's go Sean we've got uh obviously the Travers coming up at Saratoga next week another huge race coming up at delmare another absolutely gorgeous track um look ahead to that and of course folks can always visit your page over at wagertalk.com if you're looking for all of the daily uh racing picks from Shawn Alvarez but uh take me to the Pacific and what we're looking at next week in this race yes so a week from today is a Del Mar's kind of addition if you will of uh you know saratoga's got the Travers Del Mar's got the Pacific classic so not only is it a great usually a great race grade one million dooll purse but like like we're seeing with at Saratoga you're going to get a lot of graded races and uh good cards on the undercard so definitely head over to my page and let's try and cash some winners like we're going to attempt to today but um you know with the Pacific classic it looks like we're going to get the top three horses in the San Diego handy cap kind of a a second edition of that but also we've got a couple new Shooters with the likes of Katona maybe mixto um is training really well for Doug O'Neal and of course Bob bafford is keeping all of his plans uh close to his chest so that's going to include horses like reincarnate moth and maybe we get a mayor um in the Pacific classic like we're seeing the Philly of torpedo Anna I'd really like to see a Dar Mana run uh in the Pacific classic and see what she can do against the uh Southern California version of the uh the male contingency out there I definitely hope hopefully she gets in and uh makes for a really good betting race I love it all right Sean Alvarez great day of racing coming up here for us uh across the board visit his page over at wagertalk.com and grab those picks uh for the card today at Saratoga we appreciate it Sean always a pleasure here how many of you are for college football week zero uh that is coming up top of the hour noon in fact over in Dublin Florida State taking on Georgia Tech uh we'll have a little college football talk for you coming up Adam trigger will be in the house of course to talk some major league baseball as well as college football shout out to the chat room by the way as the usual lunatics are showing up in full force here today it's always a pleasure missed you guys have not seen you in a while but first Brian Leonard the man Mr Underdog in the house here Major League Baseball here today big slates couple of more dogs last night were cashing tickets for betters there uh Brian but today uh you're going to be looking at uh a game that I looked at it I didn't know who was pitching but I saw Detroit at that kind of price and I'm like it's got to be scoble day the only way that Detroit would be over a $2 favorite is if scoble is pitching it's against the white sock so what are we doing in this one coming up oh oh the cat button oh it's the cat button oh no oh he's still I think the cat's pissed and he's like absolutely not am I letting you talk to anybody uh so we will uh we'll get uh we'll get the cad W squared away maybe we'll bribe it oh there it is all right good now we got it you're good to go refresh I'm sorry about that yeah when when the ERS I have to uh but anyway uh the the Detroit Chicago game a couple lefties taking them out in this one and neither team has really had much success against South balls this year uh the Tigers come in with an 88 WRC plus while the socks counter with an 83 WRC plus that's 12 and 17% worse than the league average so we could see ourselves having a low-scoring game here you know Detroit sending sa young favor ter scoble to the hill as you mentioned and he got a 2.49 ra 0.93 whip his Advanced stat numbers are simply amazing he's in the 70th percentile or better in every category except extension now extension is how close you are to home plate when you let go of the ball so uh the shorter pitchers for the most part won't have it taller pitchers will and he can't do much about that but that includes uh four categories he's in where he's in the 90th percentile or better expected fast ball velocity Whi percentage and strikeout rate you know on the road he's got a 2.74 ER 0.97 whip Detroit's known to have a pitcher Park he's been very good on the road as well in nine of his last 10 outings he's had quality starts so this is very similar to what we talked about on the show yesterday with uh with the Atlanta pitcher and uh he's been very consistent all season long the white so counter with young Kai Bush who's making his fourth start since the call up and one of the things I look for and I've done it for years and had a lot of success is looking for lefties who are new to the league as teams don't see South Paws very often and they don't know much about them and there's usually some bet value in in that regard at the highest level when a lefty is in there for his first few starts until he proves that he is deserving to be in the league and I think he is he's pitched very well in fact there's two starts on the road he's got a uh 3.60 ra 1.40 we up a little high there but in his last two starts he faced the Yankees and the Astros two of the best and hottest offenses in baseball he allowed a total of three earned runs in 10.2 Innings to work he should find some success here stepping down to class against the tigers bats I'm playing this game under and I'm also taking a little bit of a shot on the white sock here uh this line should not be this High Detroit's a good team but they're not a playoff caliber team and you've got a starting pitcher that everybody wants to jump on this starting pitcher and ignore Chicago and the line's coming down in a couple places a couple of smart books are showing action on the white socks in this game so it would not surprise me if you were to take a shot long shot on the white socks to get this victory yeah well tigers not great against lefties and neither is Riley green so if Riley green can't hit Lefty then the chances of Detroit doing a lot of damage Brian probably not all that great so I am with you there 100% did open up at eight it is down uh to seven and a half but uh I'm I'm kind of with you here why not take a shot and plus we know Adam trigger is coming up so nobody loves a quality White Soxs play like Adam trigger so uh we'll get to his thoughts on this one uh the next game up for you though right interesting uh Dan is I can still hear the tears uh in my ear uh from the ass whooping that the Phillies took last night from Michael WKA and the Royals uh but they do get another shot at them today Brady singer on the mound for the Royals uh Rangers Suarez back on the hill for the Phillies uh did they Peak too soon Brian Leonard I mean it's it's one of the fears that I have had I mean they had such an amazing schedule and start to the season there had to be regret ression but are are we worried about them still again today on the road to Kaufman you know it's interesting um there's an article out there and I'll talk about this in a minute um that kind of enlightens us on the Philadelphia offense so we'll get to that in a second uh Lefty Ranger Suarez as you mentioned returns from the I tonight to take on the Royals uh red hot Royals team actually and he's been a major surprise this season withstanding 2.87 ER 1.06 whip he's an extreme ground ball pitcher ranking in the 91st percentile but his control has really improved this year he's the walk rate is in the 86 percentile and a barrel rate in the 89th percentile and that's why he's been so good being able to keep batteries off balance and off the bases has been a skill he really didn't have in his previous six seasons but he has it this year we'll see if it continues after missing the last five weeks or so here but he's got a 2.87 erra on the road to go with a 1. one whip which is pretty good the the way he's pitched in a good hitting ball park in Philadelphia has been pretty impressive but he's carried that on to the road as well uh I talked about um not pitching in five weeks that could be a concern here as he may be on a pitch limit but if you take a look at the Bullpen for Philadelphia they've only had one of their last five guys are usually Us in the game pitch uh in the last two days so everybody's fresh in the bullpen so you even even if he does is on a pitch count here I think they'll have a very good return from that Bullpen uh Brady singer takes the hill for the Royals he's got a 3.18 1.21 whip on the season and while his Advanced numbers show he's pitching above his head uh he still has the ability to silence this struggling Phillies offense uh as I mentioned earlier there was a recent article posted about how the opposition has attacked this potent team over the last month or going back to the allstar break opponents have featured offe speed and breaking pitches against this lineup while keeping the fast balls to a minimum and if you go back at see Philadelphia against fast balls they've been terrific and I always talk about teams that throw pitches that don't throw a lot of fast balls everybody in Major League Baseball can hit a fast ball hell most kids in Little League can hit a fast ball it's the off speed pitch the curve balls that people have trouble with and that's the way the Phillies are they're a team that really hits the fast ball and struggles against the the uh the off speed pitches and singer only throws a four seamer at 11.7% of the time so not very often will you see the fast ball from singer um while throwing a slider and a sinker and combine 83.6% of his pitches we expect this Royal staff to limit his scoring uh this scoring unit for Philadelphia so we've got two teams right here that I think are going to be in a low-scoring contest I have my concerns about singer but because he doesn't throw a lot of fast balls this is a good matchup for him so I'm going to play this game under the total under the total in this one as well nine and a half and uh let the record show here as Dan is absolutely allowing uh people to know that yesterday on first pitch that uh none of you guys uh liked Philadelphia in anyway shape or form here and we're going to wonder how much longer that is going to uh that is going to continue here interesting team this Philadelphia and uh there's one thing we know about Major League Baseball pitchers if they figure they got an edge on you they are just they're going to force you to have to do something different Brian Leonard and if you can't hit an off speed pitch and a change up W this is going to be an interesting finish to the season for the Philadelphia uh Phillies here we'll see how that goes also uh the Royals again Tyler all over them here uh can't blame anybody looking to go with cof maybe even Royals first five I'm seeing from Robert S as well so lot of Royals love in the chat room that might just be the scariest damn thing I've seen all day long so uh we might just have to go with the Phillies at that particular Point uh all right uh Brian Leonard uh loaded slate Here Today college football is off and running NFL of course will be here before we know it what is up and available over at your page at wager talk yeah as for football I've got I don't do the preseason and I've got nothing on these few games going today but I do have a a nice size play going on the game next week involving two of the teams going to be fighting for the final 16 so that should be a lot of fun I've also got some plays up on the site right now number number two I number one or two the last three seven days in Major League Baseball net profit on the season number two in that regard last year number three so obviously know what we're talking talking about here at Major League Baseball and we got some nice specials going on for our 10th year anniversary and I was one of the originals and I appreciate everybody that's come since then but uh we've got a terrific bunch of handicappers on the site right now and you can save some money so uh if you're looking for baseball football you know Canadian ice hockey or or whatever else is out there uh you can take a look at uh you know we got guys that are handicapping darts you know so there's everything out there and the horse race as we've just seen uh from Shawn and it's actually the first time I've ever seen Shawn's hair he's always wearing a baseball cap when I see him almost didn't recognize him but he he's a healthy looking guy he's always in good shape yeah yeah that's actually uh spray paint but that you didn't hear it from me there uh Brian Leonard always a uh always a pleasure here my friend enjoy the weekend uh good luck with those plays here today we'll see you again of course on Monday here and uh welcome in happy Saturday if you're join joining us wager talks last call uh don't forget if you have any questions about the upcoming slated games here today Major League Baseball Adam trigger coming up here in just a minute he will run down a couple of games he'll also talk a little future bet here in college football since week zero is upon us and let me just say uh is John Harbor and the Ravens getting a field goal today uh against the Packers um yeah uh my have to look at that one too as well but Adam trigger there is nobody uh diving in and ready for baseball all over the country we're talking whiffle ball uh stickball if there is a game going on around the world Adam trigger no doubt has a handicap on it but trick before we get to baseball uh I knew I see the jacket I knew this was coming at some point we got to talk Syracuse football so why don't we start it right off there for week zero here as uh we're getting ready for kickoff at the top of the hour in Dublin but talk to me about Syracuse football this season what are we looking at yeah Joe so I'll start off by saying everyone like I'm not a Syracuse fan per se I just live here obviously I I like them to be good because I I live 30 minutes from Syracuse but I went to Sienna people always say that oh he's a Syracuse fan I'm really not I just I I just live here now and and they're like kind of my local team um but I I kind of brought this up a couple weeks ago now I'm ready to come on and say that over seven or if you can find the Juiced up over six and a half on Syracuse is a great bet this season and the reason for that has less to do has less to do with the team in my opinion and more to do with the the schedule just being very very favorable so really really quick I I'll give you my 30 second like preview of Syracuse fan base extremely optimistic Fran Brown he absolutely talks the talk will figure out if he if he can back it up the offense is going to be better McCord will improve them and getting R Gadson to come back is massive so offense should take a step forward defense I'm not so sure that that's really all I like all anyone knows about Syracuse at this point but the reason I think they're going to get to at least seven wins I'm just going to go through the schedule with you right now and you will see how hard it would be to not win seven games and probably eight or nine the way the schedule sets up so opener at home they don't leave Central New York until October so there's that first four games home opener Ohio Ohio lost everyone they're a 17-point favorite they'll probably cover um but it should be an easy win the the first real test for them will be week two they play Georgia Tech who plays today now Georgia Tech that's that tough ask for them right they have to go to Ireland to play Florida State they then come home no bye next week they play Georgia state who's who's like in Atlanta like Georgia state's going to get going to care about that game because that's a local you know they're going to be a 20 and a half Point Underdog Georgia State but you can bet that like they're going to want to get up for big brother because they're both Atlanta area schools so then Georgia State or Georgia Tech has to go from Ireland home to play a game they'll be playing their third game in three weeks in a different local when they come to Syracuse on September 7th so that's a tough spot for Georgia Tech I think Syracuse will be favored there if not the close to pick they'll probably win that game then Syracuse gets a week off without having to travel just here you go week off at home get you know rest up for Stanford who comes in on a Friday night Stanford's got to fly all all the way across the country even if Stanford improves Joe they were three and N last year how much are they going to improve right like are they going to be favored on the on the road on a Friday night in Syracuse New York no they're probably not Holy Cross FCS school that's a layup so right now it's a good chance you're 4 and0 and the game the fifth game now everyone loves UNLV this year I see everyone is so high on unv I like UNLV as well but that's a Friday night Standalone game at Allegiance stadium in Las Vegas C is still probably a favorite right there so I'm not saying they're going to start 5-0 but I think 4- one is a is almost likely for this team real possibility um and then you know NC State would be is is actually their probably their hardest game on the schedule from a uh from a a spread standpoint I think they're only going to be like a seven and a half Point Underdog on the road in that game and even if they lose that one they go into another bye so you're talking like probably let's just for argument sake say they're four- two going into the week eight buy they come out of it Pittsburgh very average team I don't know that they improve much like what do you you I I'd say maybe four and eight Joe I know you're an ACC guy you've probably got Pittsburgh 4 and eight five- seven like you know I'm not saying winning on the RO is ever easy but probably favorite in that game again and then the other team that everyone loves this year is Virginia Tech everyone is high on Virginia Tech I don't even I don't disagree with that either either I think Virginia Tech's gonna have a great season the problem is they've got to come up to Syracuse and they embarrassed Syracuse and blackburg last year embarrassed Syracuse it was a Thursday night National TV game I think Syracuse had 10 yards the whole game the final was like 30 to nothing so biggest game of the year for Syracuse big Revenge spot for them and then you go into the last four games Joe BC Cal and Yukon are all the same team they're all average teams they could end up right around six and six they all probably improved from last year but none of those games is a is a guaranteed win none of those games is a guaranteed loss and then Joe Syracuse finishes up here at the JMA Wireless Dome on November 30th Thanksgiving weekend with your Miami Hurricanes and you know that unless that game means Miami's going to win something Miami's going to go to the college football playoff Miami could win the ACC they are notna give a about that game if that if Miami is in a game if that game doesn't mean the world Miami they will not care about the last game of the season having to travel from South Florida up to miserable Central New York they just won't so I think it'll be wrapped up before the Miami game but don't count them out you know if it comes down to that game and again Syracuse is probably only like a size Underdog against NC State and Miami and neither of those are games that Syracuse can't win so seven wins is likely I have this team at eight and four I wouldn't even be surprised to see a nine and three if they get off to the hot start uh excuse me off to the hot start that I think they're going to uh if you can find the juice six and a half which is probably like minus 140 minus 150 that's a great bet but over seven and around even money I'll be shocked if they don't get seven wins a a lot of hype there uh with uh with the new I mean it's kind of a new era inuse theight control it is the fan the fan base is as fired up for this team as I can remember I mean I you know I didn't grow up in the Syracuse area but I grew up in Albany which is is still like you know that's still the the college football team that you kind of support if you're in Albany is is uh Syracuse and um I can't remember the the fan base being this excited about the team in years it's really like that's what I'm saying Fran Brown can talk the talk he's got everyone fired up he brought in a bunch of good players we'll see if they can play but you gotta like their chances Joe uh ranked teams in the ACC uh FSU s SMU FSU Louisville Clemson NC State the only one Syracuse has to play is NC State gotta like yeah no I'm I'm looking at this schedule it's absurd no Clemson they would have always played Clemson in Florida state in the year past always would have had them on a schedule so that was always going to be uh two losses but look at this non-conference schedule it's kind of laughable here if they can't rack up eight wins here Tri like what are we doing right four four home games four home games a week off in between Georgia Tech coming in off the worst travel imaginable like literally flying around the world and then Stanford having to go all the way across country to play a Friday night game what you literally can't ask for a more favorable four game stretch to start the season yep I love it and they got a new DC they are coming out of uh College Station one of the best Recruiters in the country too I think Syracuse Joe they're gonna be an over they're gonna be an over team because I don't I think the defense could be a little bit shaky I think they're going to score some points with laquinn Allen gadston so on and so forth McCord is an upgrade at the position I I wouldn't be surprised if they're in a couple shootouts because I don't think their defense is is quite up to speed yet that's just you know kind of where I see them from an over understanding Point give it time it'll be there all right we've got college football now let's talk Major League Baseball with you here Trigg uh we heard Brian Leonard uh give the nod and a wink to maybe the white socks here so stage I I'll second that I was I was yeah I I I agree with his breakdown I said that I've said this a few times Kai Bush he's got a lot of upside Big Time Prospect for them like I wouldn't be betting against him like he's too he he's got too much potential for you to want to lay that number against him because but like Bush's stuff is good like he could come out and fire six really good Innings and Matt scoble and all of a sudden you know you have to like your chances with white socks probably the plus run and a half at plus money but get didn't make my card I thought about it though as as you know yeah I I figured it was uh it was there for you but one that uh that you're seriously considering and of course you are uh and you probably should is the A's taking on the Brewers is here didn't work out great for the A's last night but what do you think the chances of a a possible bounce back and upset here today are yeah I i' if you've listened to my shows this week like it it's I'm probably sound like a broken record because I've been talking about the A's all week but I'm going to continue to drive this point home because I think it's going to make you a lot of money down the stretch of Major League Baseball this A's team is very very good right now uh they have a lot of young players some of which have already sort of trickled into the to the big league club into the lineup they're going to call up they've got about four or five players that in Las Vegas right now that are all going to likely start to get playing time in the coming weeks that are very good and the the biggest tell here Joe the books continue to price them like very like very competitively which is which is telling it's not great if you're trying to bet on them because like again you've got the the Brewers here who are a playoff team and you can't even get the plus one and a half at a playable number at home when the Brewers are clear favorites that tells me the books are pricing this accordingly but like the last two nights I still was able to get plus money on the A's I won with them on Thursday I lost with them yesterday still net a profit there and that's probably what's going to happen if you just bet this A's team on a on a semi-regular basis the rest of the way now the the downfall for the A's is starting pitching that's where it's going to be difficult to bet the A's that's why I haven't bet the A's yet here I'm just not that high on Bole but what you can do is bet the A's live so their their Bullpen right now is loaded Mason Miller is the best reliever in the entire game of baseball on any team there's not a better relief pitcher right now in a Major League Baseball than Mason Miller I mean there's ones that are close but I think you can make the argument that he's the best Grant hullman recently called up he's been a St he's probably been the best relever at Triple A all season now he's up he's been great in his couple outings since being called up um they're now going with JT gin out of the bullpen he he's a a former second rounder for the Mets he was starting games in Las Vegas but it looks like they're going to use him in a relief role at least for now so in this type of game because I don't really fully trust Bole I would I I would probably just if I could have gotten the plus one and a half at let's say minus 125 I would have put it on my client card I would have bet it at minus 150 yes you can go plus one I'm still thinking of that you know kind of giving that some thought but I think the better way to bet this is to see how the first couple Innings play out and if it's a close game if it's a one-run game if it's tie game the A's based off of how the game went yesterday are likely going to use gin hullman Miller in a tie game or a game where they have the lead so if you can kind of see the A's are in it it's tied they're up one they're down one when it's time for Bole to come out you're G to get those big big arms today because they didn't pitch yesterday and you know the Brewers like Ria is fine I don't you know I I don't really have like a you know I don't I'm not dying to fade him but also don't think he's like a guy that that I you know need to to back at this point the Brewers are still a good baseball team which is why I'm just gonna maybe pump the brakes with betting the A's pre flop in this series but I think thae game when Bo's about to come out there's some really good Bullpen arms that haven't been used I would give them the advantage late in this game and you'll probably still get the plus a half um probably get the Plus one and a half depending on you know who's batting or you'll just get like a plus price and I would 1,000% take A's plus 115 if that's the live line in a TI in a tie game once the starters are out so that's kind of how I'm looking at that game but you will see a lot if you are subscribed to my service rest assured you'll probably see the A's a bunch over the next couple weeks I think they have a chance Joe to have one of the best records in Major League Baseball from this point till the end of the season oh liking the chances is there all right I'm going to run through I'm going to give you a couple of games here trig we'll just uh you can tell us a pass or if you're leaning one way or the other on them here we'll get to as many as uh as we can we'll start what oldtimers day at the stadium here with the Yankees taking on the Rockies I don't feel like laying $3 with Will Warren ever in any uh reality in any way shape or form but it does feel like and I believe Bok is uh is going for the Rockies who's actually first couple of starts uh were not bad here but it just feels like it's going to be too much Yankees here are you leaning total side what would you do in this one yeah usually you know usually the guys like that recently get called up I I have a stronger opinion on I I honestly haven't seen a ton of block I don't have a great handicap on him I do feel like I have will Warren Peg pretty good and you know he's someone that I I thought would would struggle at the big league level this year and you know he pretty much has although you know he he settled in a little bit in his last start it was against the white socks this is now at home against another team in the Rockies that has just absolutely horrific road splits Joe uh you know their Road I mean this is a bad team in general but their road splits are so bad that it's it's really tough to want to back the Rockies on the road maybe plus two and a half like that's about the that that's a b like I could see that so one thing with the Rockies they do have some bats they will hit a little bit here and there and I could see them putting up some offense against will Warren but man I'm I'm I I there's other things to do today I I I think I'd rather go finish I think I'm gonna go finish mowing my lawn which still has a massive strip in it that I didn't finish from yesterday because I wanted to come in and watch baseball I'm going to go finish that instead of Watch Rocky Yankees I love it I will say this though the kid BL he faced Arizona and San Diego uh in his two starts 12 Innings and he limited both those lineups so uh he's been pretty decent but it just it feels like an over game here also an over game to me Trigg is Arizona and the Red Sox Zack Gallen back on the mound cutter Crawford for Boston uh they went over by themselves last night Arizona as a dog uh they'll have an opportunity I think against cter Crawford to keep it and they got no Christian Walker and no Marte and they're still crushing the ball here what are we doing in this one do you trust Zach Gallen no I you know I I talked about this game a little bit yesterday on a couple of the different shows I did I was wrong about yesterday's game I leaned toward the Red Sox thankfully didn't play it they lost 12 to two but I I do think the the socks probably bounce back at some point in this series maybe today maybe tomorrow but I got to say like gallon has not inspired a ton of confidence with me lately I play the ra so I I was going to say I he he's battled a couple of different injuries it looks like they're lingering I backed the diacks last week I was on the wrong side I wanted to play against the Rays I knew Marte was going to play in that game so I knew he was going to give it a go this is was when he they he kind of came back and then decided okay I gotta go on the iil the ankles is too bad to sort of proceed but gallon never had it in that game at any point like from the very first batter he was he he he refused to sort of put the ball in the zone he was really trying to nibble um was behind in every count and eventually the Rays made him pay now the rays are not a good offensive team right like that's like so if you have to nibble against that that putrid Rays lineup who's not very good uh you know unless something drastic has happened in what's now been seven days you know I I don't love his chances at Fenway where the Red Sox just mash the ball the other problem I have with gallon his home road splits are also drastic he is historically much better at home so you know that that's that's the thing like and then of course you have the Red Sox coming off of an ugly loss I expect their bats to sort of pick it up tonight and the one thing about Arizona which you know this is a team I've been very high on I pointed this out the other day um they if you go back to like the end of June I think like June 23rd or something like that that they the best record in Major League Baseball but they're now without a top 15 position player in my opinion Kettle Marte I would have him in the top 10 15 allaround players 900 plus Ops guys an absolute stud you take him out of the lineup like the way they're priced right here they should be a bigger Underdog at Fenway than plus 103 or whatever whatever they are in this game right like you know and I wherever price they should be a bigger Underdog in my opinion I think you got to start to sell Arizona right now they have a bullpen that doesn't really have established roles there's a lot of good arms down there but they can't really figure out who's in the seventh inning who's in the eighth inning you've got guys that that have struggled in that ninth inning role there like you go back to the ray series they they kind of botched like two of those games late so I'm kind of in Cell mode on Arizona right now I would play the Red Sox if I was going to bet this game yeah I me it's a i' played her team total over I I would play a lot of overs in this game uh coming up here today that would not Shock me at all uh Tri what do you got rolling over here and by the way big shout out Ray Deo in the house saw him hanging in there Tyler uh also I believe William Bennett uh in the house good to see you guys shout out to those of you joining us on Instagram always a pleasure to see the day drinking on a Saturday during college football season we hope that continues uh for your sake there uh trig before I get you out of here one quick game uh of note because this team is uh they need a win uh desperately and I think they get it today what about the Guardians and the Rangers uh 8-2 in live Le starts it was not good last night they they're just after the allstar break it hasn't been good to the Guardians the twins are on their tail but really am I going to trust uh gray like no I think the dude's running out of steam here is the Guardians to play at a small price um probably if you were going to bet the side I think I would I think I lean toward runs here um the reason I say that well you kind of made the point you know gray potentially running out of the gas the Rangers running out of gas like you know they're kind of out of it I don't know if you're going to get the you know the tip top effort from them on a game in game out Bas remember this is a team that won the World Series last year they're likely they're well likely they're not going to the playoffs this year so I think you're going to see like sketchy effort from them on a day-to-day basis as we get into the you know sort of the the final few weeks of the regular season play out the string time for uh for the Rays as far as the Guardians are concerned though Ben Lively's a guy that I've been I've watched probably just as much as any other pitcher in the in the majors over the last five seasons mostly because three of those Seasons he was in Korea so I I watched a lot of him when he was with Samsung Lions and he's a guy that I would that I've only sort of looked to oppose like later in the season uh if you go back to prior to this year Joe his erra at the MLB level coming into this year was over five um he really struggled down the stretch last year with the Reds now he got off to a great start this year he's actually had a really impressive season overall like I I think if you were to tell me that his numbers would be this at in the middle of August and that he's essentially pitched the entire entire way for the Guardians I wouldn't have believed you but a lot of his underlying metrics suggest regression he's all entirely he is entirely about command the guy throws 90 he's not gonna blow it by he's not he's not gonna blow it by anyone he he his entire success is predicated on hitting spots soft contact and keeping hitters off balance and he's starting to get up there in terms of like you know Innings pitched for the season I think he's going to get rocked at some point I actually cashed uh I played against him with the diamond ax and one I played against him with the um the Cubs and and I got kind of screwed in that game but that's another story uh but here you know he kind of had a decent start last time out against the Brewers they still lost here I I don't know that I want to back the Rangers so I think I would go with over eight and a half I think the Rangers do score some runs and um it feels like both and as you Joe if you can both get to eight and a half's a winner already so slightly into the over um not sure I'll I'll be involved in that game eight and2 in Lively's home starts this year the guardian second most wins at home pretty decent price to get uh to get the better pitcher and a rested Bullpen all the arms will be available today for let me rephrase that Joe I I want I wanna I want to rephrase that I think I like first five over better because you make a good point about the bullpens I don't know that I want to go up against the Guardians Bullpen um so let's go strongest lean in that game first five over isolate Graver Lively I think someone's going to put up a crooked number early in that game at some point I love that I agree with you there I think runs are coming early and often uh talk to me about what you got over at the page at wagertalk.com yeah so I just released my first college football play of the new season um listen if you are looking for like big time college football I'm probably not your guy if you're looking for like the ACC the mac and these other schools in the Northeast that no one else talks about or follows I'm your guy for that I've got a play that I love week one in a game in a game that probably no one else is betting or or very few people will talk about and it's up on my page now I just posted it earlier this morning uh I'll probably have a couple more as the day goes on I have not played any Major League Baseball yet for today but I I expect to uh Saturday is the type of day like the weekend days Joe I kind of wait for lineups sometimes like these are the type of days you typically get guys getting a day off Day games especially in the day games um otherwise they'll typically get a day off on Sunday so I'm usually a little bit later to post MLB on Saturday but I've got my eye on a couple and I may even sneak in with an NFL preseason play um you know later today so definitely have plenty up today and it's all on my page WTB 18 outstanding hop on board would him take advantage of that 10th year anniversary deal 30% off any all access package right now over at wagertalk.com tr get the hell out of here can you believe it college football is back and it won't be long before the NFL is back in fact college football bet on it we're back this week make sure you guys get ready for that on Wednesday and then of course the NFL Edition will begin as soon as the season starts and that'll be here uh before we know it so make sure you hit that thumbs up for us guys hit that like button it is always a pleasure to see all you lunatics in the chat room once again Titan CT Tyler where's Eric D when you need him Andrew is in the house Ray Deo uh let's go Russell deck in the house brayan's in there William Bennett all you guys also uh shout out to uh uh Instagram too likeing the at 10 and a half not a fan of the spread uh we got a lot of people looking at Florida State that I am seeing by the way that game is coming up in just a few uh guys I I just I I'll tell you this the total is crashing so there's a lot of wind apparently going to be at this Stadium here today first half total also seems to be a decent play at 27 a half maybe 27 now uh there is an awful lot of wind there calling for at this game getting ready to kick off here at the top of the hour so do with that as you may as the total comes crashing down Florida State should have no excuses to win this game going away but we all know how that works out no doubt Florida state is the public side here today but the public is not always wrong uh so we'll see exactly how that goes in the meantime we appreciate you guys make sure you make plans come back hit that little bell in the upper right in corner get notified every Saturday as we are back here last call will be here each and every weekend kicking off the college football slate for you so on behalf of Dan and Brian and Adam and Sean we appreciate the time guys cash those damn tickets today we'll see you again soon here on wager talk TV good luck