2024 Cy-Hawk preview: Iowa vs. Iowa State breakdown and predictions | Hawk Off The Press

[Music] welcome to another edition of the hawk off the press podcast I'm your host Gazette hawkey reporter John Stephy I'm excited to welcome back to the podcast my Gazette Iowa State counterpart Rob gray Rob thanks for joining me yeah Good To Be With You John and that's a sign that shawk week which has obviously been a very interesting rivalry over the last few years and it seems like this is maybe not a rivalry that gets a ton of national attention but one that one way or another has oftentimes gone down to kind of one or two late possessions yeah indeed and uh it certainly will get I think a good amount of attention this season with CBS showing up um think it's the first time they've done an Iowa State game since 1971 with all the shakeups of the TV packages and it's not there aren't any jug not games at 230 uh you've got Notre Dame playing I can't remember who it should be an easy game for them a few okay matchups but nothing like this one so to be this kind of featured game on one of the flagship networks uh should see a lot of eyeballs uh and um I think they've drawn well in terms of you know when they're on Fox and when they're L A featured spot no no offense to the Big 10 Network or FS1 or something like that but um uh should be fun and again it should be tense because they usually are it's very rare you know it's been since Campbell's first season that this game has been an utter blowout and um it's hard to imagine this game going that direction well let's start out with the Iowa State offense versus the Iowa defense I think that's probably the more interesting out of the two I think both sides are going to be interesting but I think that's probably the more interesting one you just wrote today as we record this about it seems like an interesting kind of contrast in coordinators between Iowa State's young coordinator and of course the very veteran Phil Parker for Iowa's defense yeah well much like Roco Beck made his second career start as quarterback against Iowa last season and and was okay at times but had the costly pick six which he uh to Sebastian Castro that after the game said hey that's on me it's overtime otherwise and obviously other plays happen the complexion of the game changes but that's the type of accountability you want for out of a quarterback so Mouser 33 years old turned 33 during spring camp uh Phil par Parker long time defensive Guru for for IA I mean Mouser called him a quote unquote Legend um yesterday when talking about the challenge of facing Iowa's defense and it's it is a challenge that Iowa State I feel is played into the hands of a lot in recent years and I believe they're ready to play their way out of the hands of because of the weapons they have in the passing game Jaylen null Jaden Higgins both 800 plus yard receiving guys last season Higgins narrowly missing a thousand yards 13 touchdowns between them last year each had a touchdown last week um you know I and beyond that though you got tight end Ben bramer you've got transfers Eli green Isaiah Alon you got a Speedster in Benny ngoi that can can make some plays although he's only got two career catches I think they they're going to need that third or fourth option to emerge and it's probably going to be a pass first type of game for them because they you know really struggled to have any consistency on the ground last season you got two offensive linemen who missed uh the season opener possible one returns Coach Campbell Matt Campbell said but he's still a little bit thin up there against a defense that hangs his hat on stopping the run so I think Iowa State's ready to to pass to set up the run this season now we'll see um but with Mouser in there um he uh he's not shy about trusting Roco Beck in and who of course grew tremendously as the season weree on last season I think he has 12 touchdowns to one interception in his last five games um you know trust him to to find his top targets and find his uh third and fourth and fifth options too so we'll see how that plays out but obviously Iowa tends to make offenses do what it wants the offenses to do so we'll see uh what a chess match is like between the the the young Jedi and the the Grand Master I guess well kind of good segue there with you mentioning Roco back and his Improvement kind of where are the areas you know for maybe an Iowa fan who hasn't watched a ton of cyclone football since last year's saaw game where have you kind of seen the most growth for Roco kind from week two of 2023 to week two of 2024 I think the confidence he has in himself which don't think was ever small I mean you get to the division one level and you do what you do in high school Etc but the confidence he has in himself and the confidence he has gained from his teammates has grown tremendously um how do you trust a first year quarterback red shirt freshman you'd never done much yeah he played a little bit uh you know in a couple spots the previous season in the first few games and that's where I was stayed stubbornly again tried to run the ball every single game you know they got away with it against you and I uh didn't get away with it against Iowa and didn't get away with it against in a catastrophic in a sense lost to Ohio Al though they rebound went six and three in the Big 12 but that was a game Roco Beck was Coach Campbell made a point to me to say that's kind of when you knew the toughness that Rocko Beck had he was throwing up he was really sick at halftime and Coach cell told me he was ready okay got to put in JJ Cole and then he saw Rocko Beck run out the locker him and he said oh okay well that's a football player um you know Beck really has his coming out game and the big win over Oklahoma State the following week and again down the stretch it's extremely efficient and uh takes care of the football extremely well and that's something obviously it will be required this week but it's also an area where he just really became excellent last season and you know we'll see you know Iowa scored a defensive touchdown each of their last two wins in this uh series you know while winning seven in the last eight and certainly obviously defensive touchdown prior to that too and special teams plays and all that but um yeah he's really earned the trust of all those guys including Taylor Mouser who watched him throw that 54 yard pass to Jaylen null blanketed and double coverage it turned out and N makes the play but that's trusting each other and and trusting that uh you know that connection is deep enough that even what looks like maybe a bad decision a risk too that you shouldn't take uh comes out in your favor and then with that Iowa State receiving CT it seems like Jay's are good luck there with Jaylen n Jaden Higgins what do kind of each of them provide and what challenges could that pose for Iowa's secondary n is speed is very it's deceptive um and his route running is impeccable Higgins is sort of the same transfer from Eastern Kentucky was really their biggest big play guy last season with 983 yards n had one more touchdown with seven to his six but Higgins is a bigger Target where NL is a shiftier Target and either one can play go inside or outside you know you can run them on short routes and where they get a lot of yards out the catch you can run him deep and try to say hey go win in single coverage or last week double coverage um different team obviously than that I was but um that the really Dynamic group that combined for 800 I'm sorry 1800 plus yards receiving last season I believe right in that category but again they've got other options and that's that's the key because if IA does what it does it will focus on them make sure they've got enough guys to clean up the Run game where they probably feel really good about their front seven and obviously you know for good reason um you know somebody like an Eli green Ben bramer who was banged up last week so limited really flashed at times last season as a freshman tight end need big plays from him green Isaiah Alon in the Army transfer maybe Benny ngoi lots of options as I've said but a third and fourth option really have to step up for Iowa State to help out Rocco um in that regard and then you know depending on we'll see how much they try to run the ball but when they do you know what does Sama kind of bring to this running game obviously going up against a very veteran front seven for Iowa's defense yeah I mean he's a true home run hitter you know a former track star saw his first Carry he hurdled a guy last week 16 yards did get banged up a little bit only rushed it I think five times but average 7.2 yards a carry I believe it was just a cramp there was no mention of him being out this week so they feel good about him but the way that line blocks and again against such a formidable front seven you're you're going to have to settle for one yard gains for a while and see if he can hit a home run if you decide to lean on the Run game which is why I don't think they'll do it I think when you can be both efficient and explosive in the passing game with with uh V's accuracy he overthrew a few guys even last week while going 20 and 26 um I think that's the route to go but again s can be explosive um showcasing the Kansas State snow game last year predominantly but you know Carson Hansen's a really good guy that's bulked up to be a good third down back he rid of a couple third and shorts last week and they brought in um Jaylen Jackson a really Shifty change up 58 guy uh out of the max so they've got options there but it's been tough sledding I mean even even the win 107 win to 2022 with the drive the 99 yard Drive uh Chell Brock wenton over 100 yards barely but he still did didn't have a ton of success on the ground and we saw what happened last season the year before so it's going to be really hard against that front seven which is why I think they won't but their head against the wall they'll say okay maybe we only run it 20 times but um they're got who knows maybe even less but uh and this could all be proven wrong but I was so traditionally good against the Run they're set up to be good against the run again it's just going to be so hard for them to establish it I think and then on the flip side Iowa State's three 35 defense obviously a little more of a challenge than what Iowa faced in week one against Illinois State um well first of all while we're talking on that side of the ball kind of the big change this week is with um cayb bacon kind of what's the latest on his injury status and what does this mean for this Cyclone defense without somebody that's been a really key leader there yeah it's a big loss for them obviously because bacon was really emerging as a star interestingly it was his first career start on Saturday he played a key role as a reserve last season played a lot of snaps six and a half tackles for L three sacks um just really good in all areas and very very athletic former wacon from Lake Mills um he's out for the foreseeable future I would say uh Campbell did say that they got the best possible news they could later Saturday that it might not be season ending he had surgery they're just deeming it a lower leg injury um I think most people that saw what happened can connect the dots but uh it's a big loss but Rocko coincidentally is his uh teammate and he told us yesterday he's been texting him talking to him while he's in the hospital to say hey your leadership is always valuable but keep being that leader we need you on the sidelines we need all this with the you know seclin also out one of their most experienced linebackers will will mlin uh who won't be back this week either so they're going to be Mi mixing matching a bunch of guys at the second level and when I was running game looks like maybe it's but again how good is Illinois state but you got a guy of the caliber of Caleb Johnson and others and if Kade mamber can be as efficient as he was obviously and when it's the last time I out a quarterback through three touchdown P passes L on three and no picks um it's going to be really hard with the less experience and less deep linebacking through but they like the dline didn't look necessarily great against North Dakota I think part of that was Fitz part of that was bacon being absent it affected everything how they rot rotated but I think they'll be fine there and they're really good in the secondary I just think Iowa's ability to take advantage been experienc in the second level of that defense could really help them in the short passing game and obviously the running game and then um kind of first of all before we get into any score predictions or anything I always have to ask about special teams you know this truly has to be an Iowa podcast and now the special team's question is a mandatory there um you know Iowa obviously has historically done well with the advantage and special teams this year some change with Reese dayon not quite at a Tory Taylor level yet on the Cyclone side what you know what should we expect to see in terms of special teams I don't think we know yet um rer freshman Kyle con out of debuk uh senior I don't want to say he's from debuk um they have all the confidence in the world in him but he hasn't attempted a field goal in college yet he's connect you know made you know three PS um but he was telling us in the spring and in the fall that he's confident in up to 60 yards out and maybe even 65 so the confidence is there but the track record is nil so we'll see the the Cyclones have been good with um Jay Gilbert and ke Keegan shackford I think they had touchbacks on each of their kickoffs um and the punter Tyler Perkins has been very very solid for two seasons he's going to continue to do that but Jace Gilbert who made his first career field goal in that 2022 win at kennick then struggled and got replaced by transferred to chase Contreras who was Rock Solid last season he is now the pooch punter for Iowa State he did well in that regard with a big assist from Darien Porter special team standout for Iowa State Downing a punt inside about the three yard line and Gilbert also had a Touchback so they're finding ways Coach Campbell says they don't give up on anybody in this program so a guy that got buried in the depth chart is finding a way to make an impact in the return game null Jaylen Jackson those are your top two guys Jackson's as a couple returned for Touchdown um at Eastern Michigan and and no when he gets the opportunities it can be a really really dangerous punt returner and kick returner so could be Sol in those areas but hey even the game Iowa State one of 2022 i' reference so much they had two punts block so um that's an element of the game iow has been really good at and outside of Darian Porter Iowa state has not been that good at so you got to give an eye eye of the edge until you see something more from Iowa State but uh certainly Iowa State feels like they've got the players in position to be much stronger in that area where they were much stronger last season too if there's one kind of overarching key for Iowa State you know Iowa State needs to do blank to take back that trophy what would you say that is it's boring and it's kind of true every game but just don't turn the ball over not once I don't know if they've gone without a turnover at least one in since Campbell took over in 2016 there might have been one year in there but I mean look look at Brock pie what he's doing now his worst college game of his senior season he threw three picks against Iowa State and got benched down the stretch um so that's been critical now the big thing I keep going to 2022 they turned it over three times but I would turn it over three times after not turning it over at all for several shawk games I think they each turned it over once last season if Iowa say can play completely clean and and do what they're capable love in the passing game and the linebackers don't get too exposed and they can hold their own and finish tackles to prevent big gains and especially third Downs where Iowa state was atrocious against North Dakota um they've got a really good chance to win and even if they do turn it over they can force turnovers which we pretty good at particularly interceptions via Jeremiah Cooper Bo freeler and Malik Verdone last year um they can hold their own but they have to be at worst even in turnover margin or I I just feel like they're you know home field even though Iowa State's had their most success in in recent uh meetings at kenic um I think it tips the scales Iowa's way for sure but uh that's it I mean gotta play clean Iowa was known for it Iowa State at times is known for it at times it's a debacle uh they've got to be clean or or or it's probably going to be a long day I would say kind of on the flip side for Iowa I kind of looked for the Hawkeyes need to play a consistent full 60 Minutes you know saw a really good offense of 30 to 35ish minutes against Illinois state but you don't get that same margin for error against Iowa State especially in this rivalry Series where if they take an entire half to wake up it and execute at the level that you know they're executing at in the second half against Illinois State it gets to be a much harder path to Victory which then prts my next question do you have a score prediction yet I am gonna think it's in line with a lot of saaw games where it's gonna come down to a field goal I know Vegas has it pegged that way um which essentially is a home field kind of like bonus uh I look until Iowa State proves it can get it going in the next Direction and win consecutive games in this thing especially at kenik with the again lack of a rushing attack at least consistently the the the being thin at linebacker I I've got Iowa 20 to 17 but I believe anything is is possible in this game for sure okay this might be the first I have the exact same score prediction really Iowa 20 Iowa state 17 yeah that's so if I have to three somebody wins that means somebody's 35 to three and you know I think this has be a really good game you know Iowa States a team that I have not put in my apep ballot but a team that certainly I've considered and um has warranted that consideration so I think this could be a this could be a nail biting one so you know we could be kind of paying attention right there to the very end in this one not quite like last week where you know you kind of knew what was going to happen kind of in both cases um toward the end there for sure I mean that's usually the case in these games I mean even last season Iowa gets up 20 to three Iowa say did have the ball they didn't get past Midfield but they had a chance offensively to go and tie the game and and send it to overtime and the year before Iowa Iowa gets the late field goal attempt in that swirling rain um and Iowa St wins by three so I mean I'd be really surprised if it's not a one- score game but uh it's happened so we'll see and hopefully better weather than two years ago when it was at kinck I haven't seen the forecast yet here so I'm seeing fairly cooler temperatures and I don't think much of a threat but it's only Wednesday so anything can change with Iowa weather well Rob thanks for joining me yeah always great to see you John and uh we'll see you up in the Press Box yes and thanks to our listeners for tuning in until next week we will talk haw later [Music]