US Open Round 2 Predictions - Taylor Fritz vs Mateo Berrettini, Casper Ruud vs Gael Monfils

The Band is Back Together hello everyone welcome on back it's betting Weekly game bet match number one tennis betting podcast and YouTube show brought to you in association with bet Rivers your hometown sports book it's Nigel Seely here alongside our senior atpa handicapper it is Sean calv good morning Sean or good afternoon onra how are you all right thanks yeah it was uh yeah quite a decent bank holiday Yesterday Once I realized it was a bank holiday um yeah went do you know what I did yesterday no IA went to South End United against dagenham said it was a good bang it was all right you know how many you know how many they got for that match I reckon a lot 5,000 eight and a half thousand wow that is big 8 and a half thousand I mean it wasn't a great match by the way but yeah yeah I took lean to watch he he a load of his little mates were there from school and stuff randomly I think everyone realized all the parents around here there was no child care it was a bank holiday so we might as well just take him to the football and sit them there for a couple of hours but uh yeah it was all right nice bit of football in the sun 8 and half thousand there yeah it was good yeah South football club I got asked if I want to invest in it once South football club someone wanted to buy it and ask me for invest in South I think that could have been anytime in the last 30 years yeah but I mean it's it's a good catchment area you just so there 8,000 and a on League game like that is massive yeah well it's because there's nothing else on there was literally no other football on and it was you know it was a nice day dagam was pretty close they brought quite a few so it was uh yeah it's quite a good day out actually i' a plug there for the National League go and support your local team I've been spending all day trying to sort out Oasis tickets for the reunion they're getting back together are they again you didn't know that you must have known that you can't you cannot not know that you must there's a l i don't know things that come up things that come up on my Google news feed are things like you and you come up on there Oasis does not come up on there I must admit I did see I have seen them live but it was like got 20 odd years ago at FS Park but I thought they I thought they'd kind of fallen out permanently no well Money Talks million 100 million now G is getting a divorce so suddenly he's re he's having a reunion and he's doing he's doing stadium tour F four nights at Wembley Stadium with a potential two more as well so doesn't he normally do like Man City and stuff like that not doing man city they're doing Dublin marfield um Wembley and I think croak Park so yeah don't think I'll I don't think I'll be there I'll be honest I don't think I don't think think so whatever you got to roll with it in you let's move on to let's move on to the tennis that's what you come here for some might say that yes you've come here for the tennis um good day I mean we we you know we One winner one Loser on day one you got some matches obviously today we're recording this on Tuesday um and a nice winner Comm what a nice pick that was at plus 250 yeah it's nice when they go the way that you hope and and expect them to or you know that it was based on Fitness wasn't it with Stricker um but ker I'll talk about him again in a minute he's uh he's a grand slam player isn't he turns up for the majors not so not sure about the rest but been if you could identify those players it it it's really helpful because you know these are been these matches been priced up on you know the last 12 months form or recent form or whatever and if a player you if you know a player puts another 10 15% in in Grand Slams then that that gives you a decent Edge I think um yeah that one worked out well the other one didn't because Montero managed to lose his mind from 4-1 up in the second set didn't he against d bay if he' have held on won that second set against onbe that would have won what a very different match that would have been but uh he couldn't hang on and it was a very very rare straight sets win for for h the stats were all there for that one but you they don't always work out that they if you haven't seen uh sh's breakdown of the common s match it's a work of art you got to watch it called it Absolut you called it absolutely spot on it was per you called it the fitness levels you said how the match was going to go it was absolutely uh it was it was like it was a master plan oh here we go I can't think of any more Oasis records I anyway sorry I'm I'm joking there's Mo Hindu times in there am I no exactly uh anyway let's move on to the next today's matches these are Wednesday's matches we've got four matches we are going to discuss and let's start off with a match between two veterans I suppose well not veterans a bit bit rudes of casparo but two proven players Casper rud against g mon yeah is certainly a veteran Casper Casper Ruud vs Gael Monfils rud is a heavy favorite he's minus 167 Against The Talented Frenchman who always raises it on the big stage uh real Fe is plus 135 the spread here is two and a half uh minus two and a half Aude minus 122 plus two and a half from on feces minus 105 and the total as you would expect in a match like this quite High 39 and a half uh Casper rud had a pretty bad run made the quarterfinals of uh the Olympics which is probably one of his best performances of the year here got beat in round 16 at Montreal to cord got beaten the second round of Cincinnati to Felix or Ellison but he did play well uh in the first round here I know it's probably it's a step up in opposition here as well but mon feis will probably be one of his last if not his last performance in New York so could would he go out on a a high the showman uh interesting match this one here head across the B Rivers website 37 different markets available on the match where do you see the value on this one I think rude will win it on stamina um he looks like he's over the health issues that he's had recently uh he was sick at the French Open wasn't he then he had a fever or something in Montreal looked terrible in in Cincinnati when he played um who was it beat him in Cincinnati Felix wasn't It Felix Felix beat him easy and he he looked awful but now he he seems fine um I think that's that's the Crux of this match mon is 38 in 5 days time so he'll be celebrating his birthday at the weekend maybe we'll see him who knows might be invited to the birthday I don't know about that but we might we might see him he's he's 38 in 5 days time you got a question in Stam I think the key thing about all these matches that I'm about to talk about today for for Wednesday is is the weather um it's going to be 34 degrees on Wednesday which is the hottest day of the tournament by by a distance um it goes down to 25 the day after the next week of course um it gets it gets sort of cooler or stays the same around 24 25 26 this day Wednesday is going to be super hot so that should be uppermost in your thoughts really when you're thinking about betting on Wednesday 38y old M um if we look at their head-to head it's one of the matches I think one of them was in keto wasn't it years ago on the clay at some crazy altitude yeah they don't play there anymore it was about 4,000 MERS of altitude they had to use special balls and everything stop them flying all over the place but the relevant one is when they met in Indian Wales earlier on this season it was a physical battle but a very very serve dominated battle both held serve 94% of the time what in what of pretty slow conditions in Indian Wales High bouncing slow hardcore you don't get many matches there that feature 94% holds unless the H's playing against I don't know impet pericard or something get with these two players both decent returners you wouldn't have expected it to be that high but Casper rud only won 28% of return points that day mon 32% so it's a massively he uh heavily serve dominated Affair even in slow conditions and rude basically WN it on physicality and I think the same is likely to happen here in 34 degree temperatures you know even if it's a night match it's it's still going to be hot you know it's not it's it's going to be uncomfortably hot for for playing tennis mon f is coming here he's had a much needed boost hasn't he because he was in a dreadful form and he was in one of his regular funks until he beat a are very much out of source alcaras in CIA he he W mind that alcaraz was poor that day it was great for his confidence he ended up beating schwarzman here in the first round Diego schwarzman that was his last match I think wasn't it certainly at the US Open y um but in in a match that's likely to be feature lots of holes of serve might even go sort of long four or five sets you would have to fancy rude um who hasn't played that much really since the French Open I think he's played nine matches since since Wimbledon which isn't a great deal um and if we also look at what Casper rud's done on hardcore matches at Majors he's only won four of his last 21 completed hardcore matches at Mages in straight sets so he tends to win 3-1 3-2 or of course lose them so four of his last 21 only as he won in straight sets in hardcore Majors it it just feels like rude's going to Edge this in the end just just on physicality you know Moni 38 so I like the option here of taking Roode to win over 20 and a half player games that's 1.89 minus 1112 with bet Rivers it also brings in if if he happens to lose it in a long match that that doesn't matter as long as he wins 21 games or more I think that's a good bet I think this is going to go long I think it would be a physical battle and I think rude will prob probably Edge it but I can certainly see him having to win 21 games or more to win it yeah he's he's played in two three set matches best of preset matches against Bon before and he made he he won 16 and 14 games with the extra set or the extra two sets that does look a nice play there uh I didn't we touched on the weather conditions there but obviously on the court speads as well a lot of people are saying that it's quicker this year the balls are obviously a little bit faster that's another Talking Point again about the balls I didn't mention at the top of the show but I know you wait a couple of days before you get your breakdowns on the court speeds um are you seeing that that that is quick there's no stats yet cuz it's I they got stats from qualies which which kind of mislead him really it looks like a medium paced hardcore to me it doesn't look particularly quick I'd say maybe slightly quicker than last year when it was sort of on the slower side um the players that have come out and commented have said it's quite a bit I mean e schwant said it was quite a lot slower than Cincinnati lindsy Davenport also said that I think the women are using the regular Duty balls the US Open regular Duty balls last year they always did use the regular uh Duty balls in the women's tourn but last year they changed it to the extra Duty the same as the men and there was so many complaints they've switched it back to regular duty but I was told by the tournament that the men are still using the extra Duty balls which are the slightly slower balls but it just looks like a decent Pac Med medium paced hardcore it doesn't look quick doesn't look slow um yeah I'd say it was medium yeah make sure you surprise subscribe to our Instagram and Twitter accounts as well at because we win myself and Shan will be over in New York from Thursday this week should be following me a couple of days later and you'll be able to get all the action side Court speed bring the rain jacket whatever you want to do and uh you'll be a to cover you going to take do you take rain jackets I don't I'm not going to take a rain jacket you taking a r I wish I did in Madrid that's for sure um you takes a rain jacket to Madrid where it's like 30 30 odd degrees generally I go and it's 11 um am I taking a rain jacket no yeah you don't need it's not going to be cold it's just it's just going to be like 26 27 you know bits rain here and there they've got roofs on certainly on Armstrong and Ash I don't know about grandstand don't think grandstand does does he Armstrong defitely does got roof in the bars is they you don't need I don't spend much time in there so I couldn't tell you not not at about $15 a pint or whatever it is um bit pricey for me that $18 I think it was $18 and I had one of those had one of those cocktails last year you know the the ones with all the previous winners on the on the cups it was like again this is not something then I it was a it was a Gray Goose cocktail and I think2 $25 I think it was it's not value is it you know I like to point out value on this show I'm not I'm not seeing much value in a $25 cocktail or a $18 beer it's uh you got to be you got to be done once in a while you got once in a while you got to you got to have it you got have maybe maybe have I'll have one on a Sunday or something maybe okay let's move on hopefully C these cash so we can afford the greay goose cocktails other vodka suppliers are available let's move on to the next match Kaba against Jiang Jiang come through a very Roberto Carballes Baena vs Juncheng Shang controversial match where he kep Mr Buick waiting in the five set match kabash B also come through a five set match against trinsky the Brit uh been a bit of money around for the the Spaniard here kabash sper he did he has won the previous meeting between the two in bordo but that was on Clay back L uh I'm sorry Jiang won that sorry yeah I saw he won the first at six1 I presumed he went on and won it but he didn't Jiang won that one uh in 2024 in Bordeaux but it was a three set match with KOB asbo won the first set 61 uh looking at the betting on this one here uh bet Rivers expected to go a similar way Jiang is minus 375 kabash B is plus 275 the spread is 5 a half- 117 for Jang - 109 for car ASB receiving the star and 36 a half are the totals under - 110 and over- 115 both of these come through long matches Sean didn't they so there could be a little bit of fatigue uh questionable for both of these players in what he's going to be very hot conditions yeah this is another one like the commas bet that we had the other day against um strier yesterday in fact it just feels like another one where the heat will probably play a part and this is a crazy price on Shang yeah I couldn't believe these prices when I when I first looked at it unless they're assuming that carash Baya is is absolutely shattered after his four and a half hour match against chinsky which yeah he probably was a bit tired but it's only one match and he's has got a couple of days to to recover it's not like he was um massively struggling all right he was bit fatigued but I didn't really see a major problem I saw quite a bit of that match against chinsky um it's just a crazy price I mean both had five Setters in round one as you said I'm guessing from what you just said that you watched some of that Shang buic match I didn't I watched the last set because I I bet Shang in play and I watched the last set and he kept in waiting for about 20 minutes for medical Bary chance yeah wasn't happy he's very rarely happy isn't for early start as well for him that was wasn't it 11:00 a.m. yeah W happy so both are coming off the back of five Setters shang's Fitness is always been a a huge issue for him he had three medical timeouts in that match against bu back problems finger issues as well I think there was um in any case public hasn't looked fit or kind of at it for for months on end now so I wouldn't I wouldn't be too putting too much store in that Victory public doesn't look at it at all um shang's got a storied history of struggling with with physical issues he quit Winston Salem didn't he last week when we backed him won the first two rounds and then immediately um withdrew he also retired in Washington DC a few weeks ago in very hot and humid conditions after I think five games against rendines I think it was you got a question whether he's fit enough to go five sets in 34 degree heat having just played a five set against someone like kabage Baya who you wouldn't you you would certainly put kbash Bren in a higher bracket of fitness and durability than Shang who you know is he's the kind of modern day Nishikori really they both trained together at Bradenton I think so they probably had enough uh physical chats those two I I should think um even if you even if you take all that out even if you take away the physical issue there's there's no statistical reason why Shang should be this short last 12 months and outdoor hard at Main level they both got exactly the same service point won and return points W total of 100 so there's nothing in it there um kab B I assume the layers are just thinking oh he's he's a clay dog not not really the case I mean yes you would say Clay is his best surface but quick Clay is his best conditions twice a finalist in maresh won it once uh also won in Kito at a very very high altitude and those the only three finals he's made he tends to be for me I I I don't like him in really slowen conditions cuz he he gets bogged down and he he he hasn't got the power to to hit through the courts but here he gets a bit more more bang for his buck if you like on on quicker conditions I think he knocked down 18 Aces against trinsky uh yesterday won something like 78% of his first serve points so it's it's a bad price on on shank I'm just going to take kabash bua bet Rivers will pay out if this match is a retirement after the the first set is complete which is always possible in Shang matches and certainly more so if you know that they're playing in 34 degree heat um it's just it doesn't make any sense last time they met on Clay Shang was two which is only three months ago I know you would expect cabban to win on Clay but 2.43 plus 143 um Shang was now he's minus 375 no not for me I'm this is if he's going to win this Shang it's not it's not going to be easy unless kabash bua is really struggling physically which I I would doubt you know this is a guy who beat hogar in the first round here US Open last year I think he's got six6 win loss record at the US Open main draw can play in these conditions um yeah all day long I taking the value on kabash a't there yeah I mean he is being better than nibbled and the market at the moment so if you want to do take that price and kbash B you may have to be quick if the line does move which I think it potentially could do what what price anything bigger than two to one uh he isn't 2 one at the minute is he he's plus 240 plus let me sort out my he's moved already from plus 275 to plus 240 oh so that 275 is gone has it yeah that's gone it's plus 240 now okay I mean it's still value I mean the guys have got a very similar records on hard courts and I certainly wouldn't take anything approaching even a vaguely short price on Shang in these conditions not against this opponent remember bet Riv will have a whole host of special offers available on the app and on the website on the US Open throughout the tournament you'll be able to get them if you head to the app and look for the offers and you'll be able to see some there and definitely anything bigger than two to one Kash Baner perhaps there's a little bit of value there money is coming so it's it's going to move a moving Market let's move on to the next match Ugo andbe uh didn't do us any favors yesterday with his mono match we wanted him to at least lose one Ugo Humbert vs Francisco Comesana set and cash on the overs he didn't he won his straight sets for a rarity against mono but the man is playing Francisco kamana it was our friend yesterday and hopefully might be our friend again today very very very heavy favor for Ugo and be I'm staggered by this and be is minus 1,15 common SAA is plus 700 what's he done lost the leg or something in after the match the spread here is a huge 7 and a half Comm receiving 7 a half minus 105 and the total's ridiculously low here over 31 a half he's minus 120 and ear 31 a half is minus 107 honestly Sean I would look at these prices and I would probably expect Ugo and be to be about -600 I think the spread would probably be around aboutus 5 and a half and I thought the totals would be 33 and a half 34 and a half so very very surprised by these prices he's going to have to play a heck of a clean match to justify those Zs isn't he which he very rarely does in Grand Slams as it happens he did against Mona Al as I said monter should have won the second set there um and you feel like it would have been the usual struggle for R Bay he's when he's when he's playing and well and flowing and everything's working you know it look great but he very rarely stays at that level for for a whole match certainly at Majors um now he's got another match that's got the potential to go longer than than the layers expect um Kam as I said before he's he's a bit of a slam bunny isn't he he certainly developed into that way recently playing much much better in Majors than than the general run of the mil tour um he's also got the advantage of just having having just played a very similar opponent in Stricker an attacking left-hander kind of the same as onbe not not completely the same but very very similar um I feel like that's an advantage for kasas as well um just looking at the match against tricker his serve is very underrated kasas he out aced Stricker in that match yesterday won 77% of his first thir points I know Stricker had a bit of a bit of a bad day on serve he couldn't could barely buy a first serve but even so the ones that Stricker did get in Kamas won a higher percentage of his first Ser points if you look at the stats uh for Kamas in his last four grand slam matches which were against Stricker rublev MTI and Walton you know four decent opponents you know a couple of them top 20 one of them top 10 he's on a service points one and return points one total of 100 so he's held his own at at at least against four very good opponents in in quickish conditions you know us open and Wimbledon it's not slow um and if you look at hbe all time in majes away from clay his service points one return points one totle is only 1001 so it's just it's just another crazy price I mean there's there's loads of ways to play this kamasan over 12 and a half player games is the one that I like he's got to win 13 games in the match which you know if he wins a set or one of them's like a tie break he probably will do that but there are plenty of other ways to to play it um plus seven and a half games uh you know the total's over 31 and a half all that stuff but yeah Kamas over 12 and half player games for me 1.9 minus 111 the BET Rivers yeah lots of ways to get with the Italian this match uh he's not Italian is he Italian is he Italian argentin kamasan I think he's Argentinian isn't he I thought when I said Italian I realized I thought I think he's Argentinian I made him I think I made a r there anyway uh yeah play plays to get with him I like the over 31 and a half I think the 31 and a half here is a is a huge price at yeah argen 120 yeah I think that's a a big price there so uh we want to get with the Argentinian uh the way to do it very many different ways to do it 37 different markets available to do it with bet Rivers Head across there and be able to play whichever way you want to on that match but Comm certainly represents the value against erratic UG and bear that very rarely plays his aame and even though he um come through yesterday very fortunate to come through in trade set yesterday let's move on to Taylor Fritz vs Matteo Berrettini the final match and this is probably the biggest match well it is the biggest match of the day tomorrow the action starts at 11:00 Eastern time tomorrow so make sure you get your wages down uh the order of play isn't known yet it will be known later on today and you'll see the schedule but this match here is the biggest match of the day uh Mato bartini on the comeback Trail player that I love to watch I'm big fan of bertini he's up against Taylor Fritz the American number one uh Fritz is the favorite here at minus 175 bertini is plus 140 the spread is 2 and a half total no surpris they look at that 42 and a half over - 113 under minus 112 uh at first glance you might look at that prices I think bertini's got to be a better plus 140 but the head-to-head is where this Market probably is looking at because sailor Fritz has played bertini three times before and he's won all three the last two matches they played he won in straight sets in the united cup with no surprise it was two tie break 76 76 and Indian worlds in 20121 it's 64 63 it's also all about bertin's Fitness levels in what is going to be a very very very hot and humid day um this one here it's it's the survival of the fitties isn't it I guess it depends when they schedule it we haven't got the the luxury of of knowing that at this exact moment in time I think the schedule will be quite important here um I just think it's a really good matchup for Taylor Fritz much better backand than bertini you know bertini is is all about the huge serve huge forehand if you can lock him in to a load of backand to B backand battles which Fritz doesn't mind at all uh you know he's got a much more reliable um backhand it's a better backhand than bertinis and he's a better returner as well um if we look at the head-to-head of those three matches it does it does kind of tell a tale really service points W in return points one totals 106 to 94 in favor of Taylor Fritz Fritz winning 81% of his first serve points compared to 72% for bertini so he's his serve has proved bigger out of the two or certainly the better if you want to look at it that way Fritz also wins 50% of the second of his second serve points bartin only wins 44% and big difference on return as well as you would expect bartin only wins 31% of return points a Fritz is on 37% so you know head-to heads aren't everything but in what in a match like this I think it's it's it's pretty relevant the other factor to take into consideration as you mentioned is is the fitness aspect uh bartin said after beating Albert Ramos um yesterday he said I haven't trained a lot here in New York and so I expected not to have the best possible Sensations that's probably a translation he probably doesn't mean Sensations but that that's kind of what he means the fact that he hasn't that he hasn't trained a lot that's that sort of stands out to me um that suggests that yet again he isn't fully fit um in a hot day 34 degre even if it's a night match I mean a night match would benefit Fritz you would think anyway slower you certainly wouldn't benefit bartini you know when they played the Indian Wales in slow conditions Fritz 16463 so slower you would think would benefit Fritz um rather than bertini so this I've got Fitness doubts about bertini I've got matchup doubts about bertini um Fritz obviously is home major no no problem with uh motivation on on his part so I would be tempted with Fritz minus two and a half games here based on the stats uh I think he's much more likely to break surf you know if bartin is going to win sets he' probably win him 76 you would think uh I think Fritz is more lik to Nick a 63 64 sort of set so I'd probably go with a minus two and a half games there I think it's a good match up for Fritz uh minus two and a half games I think he's 1.9 minus 111 with bet Rivers where it was earlier yeah um the the stats on the head-to head very very one-sided in favor of Fritz bertini obviously that injur doubt people are hoping and praying that he can come back because he's a great player but uh it's might be a tough ask and what it's going to be the hottest day there of the year and obviously with a a very very partisan crowd as well cheering on Taylor Fritz giving all the record on the head to head as well that sha believes that he's probably the value or a lean on the value minus two and a half on the game handicap as I've been recording this podcast I've got the worst sniffly nose I've just come all like a cold come over me straightway the last thing you need when you want to be boarding in an era playing to get a sniffly cold I don't know what it is I just it's just no you started running and I'm just I'm having to stare at the light to stop myself from sneezing I don't is that to make you sneeze or stop you sneeze apparently if you stare a light you either sneeze or it stops you sneezing let us know in the comment BLX of below whatever you think I can't imagine staring at a light is good for your eyes something like that well my eyes are shocked anyway they're shocked a bits anyway I won't worry about that don't worry about uh so there's four matches that we have for you now obviously there's a whole host of matches available people say why don't you talk about that match why don't you talk about that much but these are the ones we got the strong opinion on you also got send D action against ET a very an interesting game you have uh Ben Shelton who was in great form yesterday as well in action tomorrow as well and a whole host of other matches I think no jovic will be in action as well so lots to talk about lots of bets to have as well but these are the four matches that we think the best value is and where do you think the best value lies from I'm probably going to take the first three um I think all them are are decent I think Casper Roode will get the the Fitness Edge over over mon so over 20 and a half games uh for Casper Roode 1.89 minus 112 bet Rivers against mon definitely taking anything above two to one as you said um in the match kabash Bayer against Shang definitely concerned about about Shang in those conditions that's for sure 34 degrees and once again I'm going to I'm going to take on hbe I think you know very strong trends of hbe struggling to win matches in straight sets commas a little bit underrated I think by the by the books based I think they've based it on his general form so he seems to be one of those players that does raise his game at Grand Slam so for him to win over 12 and a half games in the match against W be is Will B about 1.9 minus 111 with bet Rivers yeah I like over 31 and a half games in that much well in the total I think that's yeah I'll be I'll be playing that I'll be playing your picks as well and obviously that I throw that one as well going to go I don't like to go all in on one player on multiple different markets if you get it wrong you get it wrong so many times but obviously I got be wrong a lot I should say cuz he's a very difficult guy to call isn't he when he is playing well and it's flowing you know he does look great but far too often for me he's he plays a good first set and then just the level just goes and he has to try and get it back again and it's it tends to be a struggle for him most of the time yep uh that's all the action you have here uh previewing these matches are on Wednesday our final podcast before we jet off uh to New York will be uh tomorrow looking on Thursday's matches as well and then you'll be able to follow us on Instagram and Twitter we doing some content live we doing some podcast live in New York and also doing some stuff cour side giving you some Inplay picks that will be available exclusively on our Instagram account make sure you download this podcast Bing Weekly game bet match make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel huge amount I keep saying it every week but a huge amount of subscribers coming in every day now to the YouTube channel thank you very much some might say it's one of the best YouTube channels around I wouldn't say that but anyway make sure you one of them now R is plugged there but if you some might say earlier didn't I did I did you do oh did you do it oh no uh you could if you could if you subscribe to the YouTube channel as well Benny weekly Studios on there and keep across all the content not only on tennis but also on the soccer as well uh the Premier League is back and the European league and this time a couple of weeks time the champions league is back as well now live shows every day at 11:00 Eastern time will be covering all the major Bing roofs on BET Rivers HQ and giving you the Best Bets for that day okay that's it for today Sean thank you very much for your time thanks very much for everyone for watching and we'll be back again tomorrow looking at Thursday's matches uh the US Open take care