hey good Monday morning my friends M live chief meteorologist Mark TOA here with the m live morning weather update brought to you by Consumers Energy some great looking weather hey I woke up like September 1st September 2nd wow where did Summer go yeah it's it's officially over for us meteorologist remember we go June July August for summer September October November for fall just because it's easier to track uh seasonal statistics because you know remember your equinoxes and your Solstice move around uh anywhere in a 3-day window I guess maybe even a 4-day window so it'd be hard to go back um if we always use September 20th or 21st 22nd something like that so yeah chilly this morning says Rick beers in maaka 37 degrees that's a cold spot um I guess you'd say it's southeast of Cadillac yeah I had to put a long sleeve shirt shirt on this morning it's so in the 40s pretty much all over the board and let's uh get on into it and show you the great weather and then like I said the cold front on the way uh but not till late in the week so when we look at the satellite across the country fairly quiet and that means we're going to see a good deal of sunshine today tomorrow Wednesday probably even Thursday our next rain looks like it's Thursday night Northern and North North Western lower Michigan and then maybe Friday in the rest of lower Michigan all right let's start with on the modeling let's start with the upper air flow and we're going to look at the same thing in two different ways we're going to look at the mid levels of the atmosphere so what you basically see in here is the wind flow the wind flow aoft blows parallel to these black uh dark black lines so we have this northwesterly flow we had you know at times kind of a cool weekend I guess you'd say a cool Sunday but Saturday was great and uh Labor day was great now watch as we go through the week no Bend in the jet stream until we get to Friday and then here's Friday's cold front and what has been happening is hot Dome over the Western third of the country and then a ridge over the Atlantic and that leaves a little trough over the Great Lakes region so these storm systems can come into the great lakes and then drop down in and last a day or two this is Saturday morning so that right there is a cool wet upper level low pressure system and that's only about 120 hours out so this model should have it pretty good and I'm going to show you that we're going to look next at the same thing same model but in The Ensemble mode where they tweak it about 30 different times and see if they get the same answer and you'll see the average of that looks like it is the same answer hey good morning Ed finnen thanks for watching the M live morning weather update brought to you by Consumers Energy Judy Shay good morning Beverly Barney good morning to you and Shannon vashan good morning thanks for watching so the weekend has this coldfront coming through and then next week it looks like the ridge wants to try to build over us and we warm up and the indications I'm going to show you the long range forecast the indications are after a cool end of the week and weekend it looks like we go back to warmer than normal temperatures now remember as we get into September warmer than normal doesn't necessarily mean hot yeah sure we could still have 80s um if we go much warmer than normal but but 70s are pretty good bet hey good morning Mark ambrosie so here is that Ensemble of that same model 30 different tweaks and look what the 30 tweaks averaged for the weekend looks like about the same in other words it's a high chance that we're going to have this storm system cut off bring some showers Friday Saturday usually pulls out a little quicker than what the model indicate so maybe gone by Sunday and then again this goes out 16 days notice that as we get into the following week now we're to the following weekend the ridge wants to try to build over us somewhat and our atmosphere stays a little bit warmer than normal so hey Matthew Bley says low to mid 70s perfect weather wish should we get it all the time yes I know we can that's called like californ coast and uh you know who who wants to go there right all right so now here's the surface weather same model again beautiful day today hey short and work week like it don't we now Wednesday beautiful weather slowly warmer each day ahead of the cold front this is Thursday ahead of the cold front warming up feel very summary there's your cold front Friday morning into early afternoon hey D bro Brooks I'm feeling great today hopefully you are too and here's the coldfront through by Saturday and then remember if the storm system cuts off and kind of wraps around you get these areas of showers and the cool air you can even get the lake effect rain showers don't care cancel your weekend plans just yet you know wait a day or two and uh I don't encourage anybody to ever cancel weekend plans maybe just modify it good morning John Robert Williams uh Mike Nichols lots of wind this weekend with the cold front the colder Air at this time of the year does stimulate wind um so you know I'm backing it up to Saturday and you know you get a northwest wind at 10 to 15 15 20 M hour I don't know if I would call it lots of wind but it would be Breezy and then we go into the following week and things quiet down and beautiful weather again so if you got some sort of construction project that you want to get done the next three or four weeks look Prime for it you might be rained out a day here or there but you might get four or five great comfortable working days Matthew Bley how's it looking in an arbor for Saturday around noon let's go back to it little far out for you know being confident um this would be noon and you know I would say it's cool football weather I would say it's in the 60s I would say you could have a brief shower but probably you know nothing that's heavy at all maybe a few hundreds all right let's look at the temperatures today gorgeous 7 2 to 75ish tomorrow tack on a few more degrees head toward 80° in a lot of places low humidity to Thursday maybe the humidity goes up a little bit as the front approaches and we make it to the mid to Upper 80s Thursday so Thursday is going to be a very summery day and then here's Friday your cold front starting to BCT the state let's call it Southeast still very very warm to near 80 uh and then 70s along the front and then 60s behind the front highs in the 50s I don't know I think this might be a little cool this is Saturday and I'm hearing everybody talk to me about highs and low 50s in the north on Saturday now remember our Lake our Great Lakes water temperatures Northern Lake Michigan still in the 60s northern lake hereon 60s um Lake Superior in the 60s so on a wind off of the water it's going to be hard to stay as cool as 52 you might stay at 60 or 62 but it's actually going to be warmer over the lake so it'll kind of have a a slight warming effect Sunday looks cool too probably in the 60s and then we start to go back up 5 degrees Every Day 70 next Monday and September 10th week from now maybe in the 70s and then as we go out 10 days heading uh close to 80° Shannon grams can we cancel that humidity yeah we get to cancel the humidity for most days in September but maybe not Thursday maybe not ahead of the front and it's not the oppressive humidity that we build up you know in August or July Diana Caroll good morning when do you think we might see our first flakes of snow not sure on that one just yet all right one last thing for you the long-term and the long-term story is long term as in the next you know two three weeks after the cool down toward the weekend the long-term story is warmer than normal so here's your six and the bigger part is drier than normal that's again why I say you got a construction project that would be a good way to go uh this month so 6 to 10 day cooler than normal drier than normal 8 to 14 day out to September 10th to 16th starting to warm up still looking drier than normal 3 to four week forecast the last two weeks of September warmer than normal and look at where the drier than normal weather is so you know really and we see this often now as a uh as a really pronounced climate change Trend and that is some point in September or October we tend to get a ridge to build in the middle part of the country and has brought us much warmer Falls over the last decade to two decades especially the last decade so you know even though we're getting cool weather now couple of days in a week we could turn around and go back to the 70s and maybe some 80s but again I always want to preface that we've got kind of two moving targets so the Sunshine's power to heat us up is going down and we get two weeks out and we go warmer than normal it's not the warmer than normal of August it's the warmer than normal of mid-september which we know we've been here and that can still mean temperatures in the 80s Xavier Morales I am visiting family in the Caribbean and far south and it's crazy how it's humid all the way down here as well uh yeah sometimes Michigan has just as much humidity as other parts of the country but it doesn't last hey thanks for joining me on the M live morning weather update brought to you by Consumers Energy I'm meteorologist Mark Toros a great looking week get some stuff done or have a whole lot of fun too get some of those last last boating days in over the next couple of weeks probably before wind usually starts to take over as we get into October take care