[EP09] Affirm, Go! Can Affirm Stock Go Back to $50 and Beyond?

My trading account recap, my Rivian shares hey my YouTube Friends welcome back today in this video we're going to talk about affirm but before talking about affirm I'd like to quickly recap what I did during the past few months and what happened to Raven stock which was in my trading account in my last video I was talking about Raven stock was so undervalued at that time it was trading around $10 and I'll trade it as as low as like $8 is I've been buying constantly buying the Raven stock at the price of uh like 12 at the price of 11 around the price of 8 8.43 which were instantly low at the standard of as if we we look at that today and at at one time I got as much as 5,000 shares of Riven in this trading account of course I still have some more even more in my like long-term investment account I was very happy about the Holdings the shares I got about this stock and I I hold like a firm belief that Riven stock was so underrated at the price of 8 or 10 or 12 or 13 and there were some amazing things happened that Volkswagen had invested in as much as5 billion into Riven and they're going to like have this join effort to further develop their EVS uh this is especially a fantastic news for Raven stock and all Raven investor and Traders and at one time after this news this massive investment news from Volkswagen came out Raven stock has like jumped More than 70% over one day I was shocked because back then I was wondering why the stock like has jumped up so much that uh it bumped my the value of my this trading account the portfolio uh which was really amazing and after some like Market adjustment I guess investment investors are adjusting their positions and reevaluate the stock and now uh at a few weeks ago two weeks ago it kind of settled at the range of 16 to 18 and I've sold all my shares at um $18.16 as you can see in this red card record here well it's not saying I'm Giving Up on Riven or I don't like Riven stock or riven's company at all on the contrary I I I like it very much I like the product I like their pickup trucks their SUVs and their future plan of the R2 and R3 I like all of them it's just a uh I think this a temporary high point at at $18 more than $18 of course it can go beyond 18 to like 20 25 that's totally possible it's just at this price point point I feel there are some more opportunities elsewhere so I'll just like temporarily uh sell my Riven Holdings and looking for somewhere else Affirm stock recent performance okay guys let's first take take a look at the stock trending of a firm Holdings uh in the past year uh by the end of 2023 that was the near-term highest the point of a firm it it was traded as high as $51 it's gone up from all the way from like 13 of 1315 in 2023 all the way to 50 and that was a really cool rally for this stock right but uh in this year if you if you look at the uh year-to dat trading trend of this stock it's not it's really not going hot it's down by uh 45. 26% as of today it's it's gone down from almost like $50 to now just the 26.89 like below $30 in the recent week and there are a couple of reasons for a firm not trading as good as last year and we're going to talk about in this video and we're also going to explore if the potential interest rate Cuts is going to benefit a firm stock and if ever it's going to go back to 50 and Beyond in the near or midterm we do follow the trend and the overall sentiment of the market but we do Zoom the timeline from like day trading to a relatively long long time like uh one months 3 months even 6 months that is the goal of this Channel and that is the goal of my my trading portfolio here I share with you guys in each of my video and I share with you guys with full transparency and hopefully this is a better investment plus trade uh that that gets higher return than just like say investing SP 500 and NASDAQ 100 those index funds and if you want the same Journey with me and if you want to keep an eye on this trading portfolio I have here please like this video And subscribe the channel okay now let's go back and talk about a firm and the first Understand Affirm business model thing we need to figure out is what is a firm's business model how does a firm make money if you don't believe its business model is healthy or it's it's promising why would we even like trade the stock after some investigation the main business of a firm is that its point of sale loans so what does that mean a firm partners with over 11,000 Merchants across the United States and North America uh when customers shop online or in store they can choose a firm as a paying method or pay payment option A firm reviews their application consider their um score I guess it's a credit score and spending data and offers an annual percentage rate if approved customers receive a loan facility for amounts up to 17,500 and with payment plans spending from six all the way to uh 36 months so a firm settles the account directly with Merchants ensuring transparency and no hidden fees so in short a firm's business model is like a a a a shortterm to long-term uh point of sale loans company some of the loans are pretty customer friendly that they have really low aprs even in today with a super high Federal interest rate but some of the loans of course they have their interest rate and especially considering the uh customers credit record and other factors a firm earns the money from that and ladies and gentlemen we have some good news we have Some awesome news for Affirm some fantastic news for a firm and this data is freshly came out earlier today that the uh cooling US inflation boers September R cut hopes so today we have the latest the pce inflation data it's from June and uh here are some like key points of this pce data this data is very important for Federal Reserve to make interest rate Cuts or hikes decisions and the Jun data is really good and uh really giving hopes for investors for like Federal Reserve to cut their interest rate in September and later this year so true and personal consumption expenditure expenditure exess in index up by 0.1% that that's align with the analyst expectation and PC inflation increases by 2.5% year over year that's very close to Federal reserve's target of 2% year-over year and course CP pce price index gains 02 0.2% up only 2.6% year on-ear and consumer spending climb 0.3% income reses 0.2% and from this news we can see that us prices increased the monitor moderately in June as a declining cost of goods tempered ra a rise in the cost of services and scoring improving inflation environment that could position the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September and this is fantastic because lot of investors and the market is waiting for Federal Reserve to finally start to consider uh interest rate cuts of course the market has already in some circumstances price in some of the the interest rate Cuts expected Some stocks benefit more from interest rate cuts however we're looking for some more stocks that potent can potentially benefit more from the interest rate cuts um and these stocks I'm looking at are affirm redin and Tesla so redin we know redin we know is the fourth largest US online uh Real Estate website or online uh real estate company and real estate is the one of the most sensitive area to interest rates and of course the interest rate Cuts can potentially B benefit red fin even more than the broader market and also Tesla Tesla is selling cars as their main business I would rather take the chance when it has like even lower stock price than it is right now trading at the low 20 low $200 and that leaves us ladies and gentlemen airm stock and airm is business model as we just described is very sensitive to interest rate and I think it'll benefit more compared with the General market to the potential interest R rate cut so that's the plan for my like midterm trading portfolio as as I share with you guys here okay now let's dive into the Affirm financial results and FY Q4 2024 business outlook quarterly Financial results of a firm a firm's Financial results are issued by fisical year and physical quarters as you can see physical quarter Q3 2024 that's actually uh the calendar year from January 2024 to um March 2024 they have yet to release its Q4 fiscal year 2024 earnings report is coming soon but it's not here yet so in this report this is the latest report and we're going to focus on a few things uh and uh this chart okay these are the two key values u a firm or this this industry used to measure the business of performance one is the gmv and one is aov so aov is the average order value like um each order what's the average value of each order if it's I assume if if it's goes higher or if keeps stable that's a good that's a good sign and the gmv is the uh like total dollar of all transactions on a firm platform during that period so we can see the uh gmv it was declining from Q4 um 2023 calendar year but if we compare the year-over-year results it has a 36% growth but I think most importantly consumer spending has this like seasonal pattern typically consumers spend more in the like last quarter of a calendar year because the holiday season and so on so forth good and we have airm airm card active consumers growing quarter over quarter this is good Trend this go rate is a good Trend and the next slides partnership across wide range of categories um general merchandise Fashion Beauty travel ticketing Electronics Home lifestyle equipment Auto sporting goods and Outdoors others okay these are just the like categorize the spendings from customers from consumers on each of the category and this is the active consumers okay we still have this very good growing Trend and the transactions per Active consumer is increasing quarter over quarter which is good while the returnly Active consumer percentage it seems It's dropping and this is kind of like a a warning sign or red flag anything else looks good like steadily growth and if we compare it the year-over year it's like 20 27% transaction per Active consumer growth which is good and the operating income we can see like it's narrowing its operating loss and if um considered the adjusted operating income is is actually growing from the negative territory to the positive numbers which are good people make concern the growing is slowing down and I think that's one of the biggest reasons why the stock price is declining this year well I I do see like steady growth quality over quarter uh I'm not too worri about that the next very important thing we're going to take a look is the Outlook the business Outlook these rat are not these grow rate are not high these are just like 3% maybe even less 2% and these are not uh not high enough as well so if you look at the revenue if I look at the revenue chart in the last two years the Q3 to Q4 Revenue grows was like uh more than 10% for 2023 the qu quarterly growth rate is definitely slowing down and I guess that's some like investors and Traders are concerning about because the Outlook is however my thought about a firm being benefited from the interest rate Cuts is a still stands especially considering the stock price has been dropped by like 42 or 45% from the Year from the beginning of this year to this point so in the next 3 to 6 months I still have like high hope that a firm can go back to much higher Stock press than it is My trading account/portfolio overview, final thoughts right now okay finally let's take a look at my uh stock Holdings in my current portfolio one more time so now I have 2,300 firm shares that worth around $62,000 that's uh 75% of my 88,000 88,000 whole portfolio value I have some AMD stocks and I have some Nvidia stocks I got them I got the Nvidia stock because that like the market sell off in the past week I'll talk about AMD in my next video but but this video is about a first and I think a firm is going to benefit more from the uh interest rate cost from Federal Reserve in the next 3 months okay if you want to take the trading Journey with me and if you want to keep an eye on the stocks I trade and the analysis I have in the videos please consider to like this one and subscribe Channel I'll see you in the next one