State Of Origin 3 Preview - Kalyn Ponga’s Role, Barnett x Leniu, Huge Middle Battle

NSW big Lesar League an all rugby league experience hello welcome back to Big Lesar League make sure if you haven't already to click down below and subscribe become a part of the big Lesar League Community uh we are going to be talking origin 3 we're going to go into a bit of a deep preview go through all of the points all of the ins and outs for both sides going into this decider it's going to be a huge game obviously they all are at suncorp New South Wales we don't have the best recording decid at suncore but this one feels special to me this one feels like the first one won since 2005 I think we do get the job done there we'll talk about the betting side of things a little bit later but let's go straight into uh our preview here for state of origin for the decider for 2024 we'll start off with New South Wales obviously the ins and outs for New South Wales Bron best comes into the side here at Center the trell Mitchell drops out a massive out uh for the New South Wales blues uh obviously the trail Mitchell is known to break the game open on a regular basis he comes into the origin Arena and kills it every single time it is a shame to see him out of that side for the blues but uh with what you lose in the troll Mitchell you do gain here with Bradman Bess he's an absolute competitor uh he's got some great speed and strength too out there on the edge he's also played origin and combined with Brian Toto uh last year in last year's game three so it feels only right to bring him back in there is a few concerns around his hamstring and how that's going to go for them um but look we'll have to wait and see obviously if he isn't sweet to go Matt Burton comes into the side and I think that I'm happy with either or as we said uh in the reaction to the team list happy pretty much with either all uh here for the blues what whether you get Bradman best or you get Matt Burton happy with either one but Bradman best we're going to assume that he's playing looks like the scans on Saturday went well the testing on Saturday went well and he looks ready to go uh keep in mind as well when you go ahead and look at the team list on the NRL app it does say that Luke hiri is still the 20th man it's actually Joseph suali uh so just keep that one in mind obviously a nice little trick to have up your sleeves there Joseph Sali in terms of who is the 18th man it is Matt Burton so he won't be playing uh on the weekend I don't think that he's playing anyway uh on the weekend just has double check the draw but um yeah look obviously he'll be out for the dogs again I'm not sure that the dogs fans will be too happy about that one but uh it's a great guy to have up your sleeve too a guy that can cover multiple positions for your side uh it's great to have him there in the 18 man Jersey back in the squad I feel like he deserved to be in the squad for game two uh it's great to see him back there for the decider um in terms of the actual team there is one more change here obviously hle uatu drops down to the reserves uh we do see Mitch B in the 17 yet to make his origin debut in this decider very excited about it I think that he just is going to provide a lot more just in terms of his versatility than what hle will I think that hle is an out andout Edge I don't think he suits the middle granted he came on in both games and played well uh obviously in that middle sort of role moved out to an edge and then got taken off um but I think that Mitch Barnett can play both Edge and middle to extremely high quality and I think that is the only reason that he's in the side over hamal KATU they said it on levels I completely agree if hle plays state of origin football and he is a state of origin player and if he does play state of origin football though uh he has to be starting on an edge whether that be left or right most likely right leam Martin's there at the moment he probably won't get that spot until Liam Martin gets injured or when leam Martin gets injured until that's a [ __ ] bad Omen but uh uh when or if M uh leam Martin gets injured that's when hamal or the KATU would come back in for me he has to be starting I just don't see how it's worth it having him off the bench he hasn't played that bench role where you have to play either middle or Edge to the best um Quality whereas you're going to get a lot more quality out of playing Mitch Barnett on either the edge or the middle if that makes sense I think that H's played very well when he's come in in those short spurts the 23 minute stint and the 19 minute stint uh in game two um um but I just think that you can get a higher quality in both positions from Mitch Barnett so uh yeah I am so excited to see Mitch Barnet get in there and rip and tear missed the birth of his child uh to train with the squad in game one when he was the 18th man absolutely bizarre love hearing stories like that but at the same time like oh priorities a um but look I mean prioritizing the team here you know where his focus is at I am so excited to see him come in I think that him and lenu Off the Bench is going to be absolutely insane and I cannot wait to see it uh in terms of where Mitch Barnett comes into the game I think it will be in the middle I think he'll play at least 20 minutes 20 to 30 minutes in the middle uh in the front row there taking off either pay har or Jake choic I think then gerbo or pain house will come back on and he'll slot out onto an edge taking off leam Martin for a little bit then Martin might come back in in the middle or depending on how they want to work this rotation I think that Martin will get a little bit of time in the middle like he has in game two and I think a little bit in game one um very excited though to see how this rotation works but I guarantee that Barnet will be getting at least 20 minutes through the middle of the field just ripping and tearing with Spencer and as I said this combo Off the Bench that can play Big minutes is so exciting uh very very excited to see how both of these guys go and I think it's going to be very hard you know just these two around tied forwards getting quick play the balls it is going to be very very dangerous so can to see how they go yoi I think will come on in that lock forward role and play that link man role at 13 now that you got Barnett there to come in through the middle then again we could see yoy come on and play that front row role that we have seen him play in the past uh it really just depends on how the game is going and how long you want to kamaray out there on the field for um but yeah look I think there is a chance that we might see yoi get that linkman roll back and play that 13 Jersey type rle obviously with two middles now on the bench in Barnett and Spencer Vue um in terms of some other points here for New South Wales I think we've got to really just focus on starting with the same intensity that we've started the previous two games with just getting out there winning the battle through the middle which you know Ruben Cotter and Lindy Collins have failed to do in game one and two we've won the forward battle at the start of the game both times I mean the first 10 15 minutes of game one New South Wales were winning that battle through the middle and you could argue that there was a stage there in the second half as well when New South Wales were winning the battle through middle as well so it is just going to be about winning that battle through the middle to start the game whether we're kicking or receiving whether it be jamming Queensland in their own end or getting out of our own end uh We've really got to start the game well and that's going to come off the back of Jake trovich pay har Camari Camari with that great leg speed that we saw at the start of game two quick play the balls and obviously then getting it out to the outside men in Bradman best and Steven Kon who can do their work on the edges Dylan Edwards in those beautiful support play spread sets um yeah look I'm very excited to see how we do go but I think if we play anywhere near like we did in game two I think we win the series I honestly do uh but it is as I said just about how we start the game the first 20 minutes is going to be imperative and we saw that obviously in game two it was the best 20 to 30 minutes of a start of an origin game that New South Wales has ever played and I think that not many people can disagree um so just you know starting that way winning the battle through the middle you know that Queensland are going to be a lot more up for it decid in suncorp Queensland go very well at suncorp uh and they obviously play for that Jersey a lot more at suncorp um you know it is a decid they have gotten to this stage where they really need to push and win here uh you know Lindy Collins Patty carrian these sort of guys they're going to be flying out of the line putting a lot of pressure on our guys we've just got to start the game well that's going to be a big Focus for us uh obviously we we've got cam Murray they've got Ruben Coda with a bit of leg speed as well some quick play balls just limiting his impact like we have done in game one and two is going to be imperative as well he has been quite uh set back obviously in those two games those first two games he just wasn't able to win the battle he was getting dominated in contact every time he went for a hit up or most times he went for a hit up uh so just limiting his impact and his leg speed H but also then just jamming Collins we'll talk a little bit about him when we get to Queensland but uh jamming Collins jamming Patty carrian limiting the impact of Queensland through the middle of like we have in the past two games at least to start the games uh and then just as I said winning the battle through the middle kamaray Le speed quick play of the balls and then obviously Moses and Le doing their thing as well with the kicking game and that's a big thing as well Moses obviously not having a lot of success at cluband at the moment you can see he's very frustrated with how his Club is going I don't want to have that mindset that he has in club football you know the frustrated Mitchell Moses carry on into origin I want to see the origin Mitchell Moses that is just killing it flying going well great kicking game making the right choices uh you know not making those poor choices we saw in his last game for parata where that short ball for penini that probably wasn't on a few opportunities they could have gone out the back they missed in that param game I don't want to see him making those poor choices again here for New South Wales I want him switched on I want him focusing on New South Wales and the team that he's got around him a lot of professionals that he's got around him and just making the right choices but also uh keeping that kicking game intact we saw a beautiful kicking game from Moses in game two I want to see that carry On Again into the decider so Moses needs to be switched on on point and have a mindset towards New South Wales and not focus on the current Club form at par matter uh that's going to be imperative as well we talked about the Barnet and lenu combination Off the Bench that's going to be so sick to see uh and look Kurt catwell being selected there in the starting back row for Queensland the game plan is pretty much written for the first 20 to 30 minutes or however long they want to keep Kurt Capell on in the back row Target him his defense was not okay uh in game two obviously playing out of position as well in the centers uh he got absolutely targeted there H going down that right hand side of the field you know they were defending out of position a little bit uh Sue on their Queensland left obviously Kirt cball was defending more uh in the Middlefield obviously Jaden SE was defending out in the centers uh Tom Deen was defending out in the back row they were all defending out of position uh just to make that cover and make it easier for Kurt catwell to defend and it obviously didn't work because they got hammered down that new South WS right and Queensland left uh but that's going to be the game plan just targeting that side again uh going into this decider when we do get a bit of momentum getting it down that rightand side to Steven Kon to Zack LX kicks to LX as well getting him one-on-one with I think it will be uh San Cobo in this game um but yeah I'm I'm super excited for this battle but I'm also a little bit worried and we're going to talk about that now for Queensland as well just in terms of the different shaped backline how I think it's going to look going into this decider as well uh but that's really it for New South Wales excited to see how bman best goes in this decid game hoping that he's 100% ready to go uh Moses needs to switch on not focus on Club football focusing on the New South Wales Blues starting the game with the same intensity switching on in defense uh as well uh obviously The Rock speed with Kamari going through the middle of the field and the quick play of the balls as well as pay har and jakic starting the game right Jos defense um you know Barnett and lenu through the middle is going to be amazing yoi his role could either stay the same or he can turn into that linkman guy come on for camaray and give him a bit of a spell and play that third a role uh we could see that role change uh with how this side is structured um and that's basically it for New South Wales can't think of anything else off the top of my head just looking at this side uh just the last thing for New South Wales Conor Watson I think that his role is the same I think that he comes on in the last 20 minutes and plays a bit of dummy half but it is very game dependent I think that it does depend on how the game goes if there's an injury somewhere which knock on wood there isn't but if there is he comes on and fills in there but I think that he will play a bit of hooker like he did in game two uh again look it's just sort of how the rotation Works they could even get him on a little bit through the middle they are a little bit under the pump and you imagine that with Queensland you know going to be up for the fight here through the middle they are going to come out of the line flying and put a bit of pressure on guys like camaray I imagine there will be shots on camaray uh for the first few moments of the game maybe they do get Conor Watson on for a bit of leg speed through the middle if the game goes like that if they're getting dominated through the middle he'll just come on at nine and they'll get these big middles to come on and do the job there uh plus you know lenu isn't the biggest guy in the world but he's got that leg speed and he's got the tough and size you know frame with it um you know so they don't really need to bring on Conor Watson in that role they can just have him on at nine I think that he does play nine to be honest in this game uh let's move on to QLD Queensland uh now the first big point for me is KP Off the Bench it is scary we don't know where he's going to come onto the field if I had to make a guess it would probably be in a second row sort of roll I think KK catell will come off and he'll go on but he'll sort of play like a second 58 and he'll just you know roam a little bit down that left hand side will roam both sides of the field play like a second fullback 58 almost like a fly half in Rugby Union sort of role where he just roams and plays like a second fullback helps where he can uh helps in those spread sets but then also uh you know really helping with the X Factor down that left-and side I think that they are going to load up on that left like they have in previous games as well so I think that's where he comes on he they sort of gets on at left Edge back row but plays a bit more of a roaming second 58 fly half sort of in this side that's what I think kp's role is going to be and that scares me too uh because especially with the form that he's returned with for Newcastle uh plus he looks like he is getting a lot bigger as well in that new South in that Queensland Camp sorry he looks absolutely huge he looks like he's put on a few kilos so uh looking for him to have a bit of an impact and uh be strong in contact too I think if he does come on in that role uh very scary signs uh you know him and REE Walsh linking up is going to be [ __ ] insane if we do see any tries like that uh you know as a new South Welshman I'll still be very very uh infused I like um just the champagne rugby league that these two are going to put on a really well but at the same time as a new South Welshman very very scared um look in terms of the changes here for this side as well obviously we spoke about KP already but uh Reed man is there as a precaution in jersey number 20 if Harry Grant sternum is [ __ ] we'll talk about Harry Grant uh in a second as well towards the end uh we do see seln cobo come onto One Wing we see Valentine Holmes get pushed out to another Wing Dane gagy and hamso tapiwa F do are the centers uh Jaden SE has been dropped which is a huge call his Club form he's been one of the inform back rowers behind Angus kryon and Dave feda in the competition he's easily the number three back rower in form in the competition right now the fact that he's been dropped out of this side I think is pretty big I'm hope that he hasn't been blamed for the defensive uh you know problems that they had in game two I think it's more so Kurt catell you've got to blame for that but maybe Billy SL has seen something that I haven't but jayen s's out Mar Tong is obviously out with a hamstring injury that he's obviously had a few hamstring injuries this year Mari T longi and Xavier coats obviously out with injury as well which is huge for this side they've had to have a massive reshuffle in the backline uh you know maybe New South WS can exploit those poor defensive uh you know uh combinations there on the edges they have had two weeks to train with each other so hopefully they're a bit sound but uh we'll have to wait and see in terms of how this backline is going to be shaped uh I think that Dan gagy and selin Cobo will be on the right side maybe Dane gagy and Valentine holes yeah Dane gagy Valentine Holmes I think will be on the right side I think that hammer and San Cobo will be on the left maybe not no okay yeah know just thinking about it now Valentine Holmes and Hamot will be on the left Dan gag s COBO on the right that's how I think this is going to go just trying to think about where Valentine Holmes was last time I think they are going to get him away uh from that left Edge defense obviously going or the right Edge defense I should say for Queensland going up against Bradman best think they'll have him on that right side then again you know obviously no no he'll be on the left he'll be on the left Val homes will be on the left with hammer Dan gag s and Cobo right I think that Val homes will go to the left and defend the right side of New South Wales I've confused myself here already which is perfect in the middle of a podcast but um I think that he'll be defending against Critter and LX which is going to be a little bit interesting uh you know especially in the air on last tackle but that's the thing though I honestly can't predict it because then why wouldn't you want Selman Cobo playing on the left where he's played all season going up against Lomax on Low's last tackle plays yeah I think that Val homes will be on the right side I think Val homes will be on the right side with Dane gagy and he'll stay on that same side and then obviously hammer and San Cobo will be on the left and I think that's the play because he'd want San Cobo marking up against Lomax on those last tackle kicks from uh Moses because if it's Val holes going up against Lomax that's tries every day of the week uh I just don't think Valen homes is as good as in the air as what LX is I think that they will mark up Kobo against LX so Kobo will play left with hammer and holes will play right with gagy and homes holes and gagy combo is still pretty dangerous in attack as well um I also think that Val holes as I said just he hasn't been too good defensively this year I think you just need to put him out on the wing uh he'd be great with his kick returns I think so just having him out there on the wing I think is a little bit better leave gagy defending with Gaga as well you can trust him in defense he's been very good defensively this year he's a lot safer than what Valentine Holmes is so I would be going for that sort of Direction in this game I'd be having hammer and Cobo together Danang gagar Val holes together on the right and then obviously as I said Cobo defending LX with those last tackle kicks and then you can just get Val holes defending brto which is still going to be very interesting how that goes um but yeah look I think that's the best Poss possible way to go and I think that Billy has picked Cobo in there for those last tackle kicks he's identified LX to be very good in the air and I think we've all identified that so having Kobo there who's also very good in the air to challenge that I think is going to be the plan uh that took a little bit of a while to figure out I apologize for that brain fart there but yeah be interesting to see how this backline is shaped I could it could be totally different to what I've just said but I think that tactically you'd want Cobo against LX and I think that the rest of it just makes sense having homes where he's play on that right side for the whole series just moving him out one just have a little bit less pressure on him in the defensive line and gagy can obviously make those tackles in the centers as well and you just he's just a lot safer in the centers there uh Dane gagy uh in terms of the other points here for Queensland uh let's talk about the pack uh obviously they've gone for the pretty much the same pack here uh the forward pack for Queensland is Ruben cter and lindsy Collins starting in the front row KK capwell and Nan in the back row pedy carrian at 13 mof for aaker felis KUSI kaln ponga in that Jersey 17 so they've only got the two forwards coming off the bench this rotation is going to be very interesting does that mean that kurk katwell and Nan will play the full 80 minutes that will be interesting as well uh does Patty carrian get a spell or does he play 80 as well uh that will be interesting as well it depends where they put KP on the field uh you know looking at Patty carrian playing a little bit of back row we could even see Patty carrian go onto an edge and then see konga go into that thir sort of roll rather than going onto an edge I think konga will go onto the edge though and then just Roam and they'll keep Patty in the middle because I think defensively you just got to have him in the middle you can't afford to have him on an edge um but look I mean if you look at Brisbane over the past few weeks with Patty carrian in the side he has moved out to an edge before kickoff um yeah obviously it's pretty obvious where Mo's going to come onto the field Mo for a wakea he's going to come in through the middle uh felis KUSI can come on on an edge or in the middle but I think that with the footy that he's playing at the Dolphins at the moment uh I think that he will play in the middle of the field rather than on an edge um yeah be very interesting to see how this rotation Works do the back rowers play 80 does Patty carrian play 80 does Patty carrian move to an edge at some point in the game uh very very interesting to find out you know obviously you got Harry Grant here too that will play a bit of a roaming role now that's going to be interesting and that's a point I really want to get to here Harry Grant and his sternum that is going to be very interesting what happens with him I think that New South Wales have to Target him when he's in that roaming role I don't even know if he will go into that roaming role to be honest I think that he'll just stay in the number nine I think they'll put him on straight at nine and move hunt into a roaming lock rle uh but they might even not even do that with uh obviously K pong on the bench because he's already going to be roaming and you've got too many chefs in the kitchen I think they'll keep both Ben Hunt and Harry Grant in the number nine rle but regardless uh having Harry Grant in the defensive line with that sternum concern I'd be targeting a lot of play especially quick play of the balls getting a spenc elinu running straight at Harry Grant here H and just trying to barge him over and look it it sounds cruel but you know you want to uh you know obviously go after all of the weaknesses here for Queensland Harry Grant is probably going to be a bit of a weak link with that sternum injury and you're obviously going to have the big forwards for Queensland protecting him a little bit there but I'd be a targeting a lot of the attack at Harry Grant uh with that sternum injury and I think that's what new South Wells are going to do the fast legs of Barnett and lenu coming onto the field pretty much time that very well the same time Harry Grant comes on you get a spenc lenu coming on and just running straight at him I think that's the plan here for New South Wales and even just getting kamaray running at him with some quick leg speed as well running around him getting a quick play of the ball and getting getting forward to just run straight at him as well that's going to be the plan uh but you definitely got to explore that weakness himself Harry Grant and Kurt catwell for me you got to Target both of those guys I think that is going to have to be the plan um ree Walsh obviously the Redemption of ree Walsh here very excited to see him have a big game obviously had a huge one for Brisbane the other week uh obviously straight after that origin performance I'm looking for him to have an absolute Blinder here um and yeah just really redeem himself and especially if they do get a bit of go forward through the middle here uh with ribben Cota getting a bit more momentum and leg speed in this game you know maybe lindsy Collins and Patty Carri get a bit more go forward in in some points just letting him have some runs as well and getting him you know running uh in in a few gaps around tide forwards as well obviously in those spread sets but obviously stepping back on the inside his footwork is so electric and just his Pace Off the Mark I think if he finds a gap he's going to be very dangerous still uh just getting ree Walsh early ball letting him do his thing I think he's going to have a big game re Walt massive game especially off the back of his Brisbane performance the other week I think he's in for a pretty big one uh and look the last Point here I've got is origin Dane gagy origin Dane gagy is a [ __ ] nightmare to defend he just goes to another level he goes to another level in origin uh he's definitely going to have to be one that New South Wales watch for he'll be running up against Bradman best and Bradman best with a little bit of a hamstring concern uh I think defensively he still going to be solid he's one of the better defensive centers in the comp big body as well I think that you've just really got to take d G guy out of the game early defend him strong put some shots on him when he does go on those spread sets and yeah this battle is going to be very very entertaining Rin best going up against Dane gagy cannot wait for it but it does scare me Dane gagy origin Dan gagy as well very scary Prospect I'm Keen to see how Billy uses him and I'm Keen to see him go to another level and have this real tight contest and I think it will be a tight game look a lot of people are saying New South Wales third Tips and Try-Scorers aim plus can't say it I really can't Queensland at suncorp even if we do play to the same standard that we played in game two I still feel like Queensland are going to go to another level still here at suncorp they're obviously going to get a big speech before the game they're going to be ready for this one they're preparing all week up at they probably a number of speeches uh you know obviously a number of talks with Billy Billy hyping them up you know showing them what it means to play at Sun as a queenslander stuff like that they're just getting them ready uh ready to go and I think that they're going to be right up for this one I think that they're going to be a lot better than what they were in game two I think they're going to be right up for the contest through the middle um so yeah look I mean it is going to be a tight game I cannot see it going out to 13 plus like game two did I think it is going to be that 1 to 12 Affair I still think if Moses is switched on with the kicking game it is going to be that 1 to 12 Affair in terms of Tri scorers look you've got to go with Bradman best uh I love Bradman best I think he scores a try look you're going up against Dane gagy who is one of the better defensive centers in the competition but I think that Bradman best does get over uh we saw him in game three last year absolutely Ripp and tear I think he got two on that day as well so Bradman best for me scores you got to have him the new guy coming in I think he scores uh for me I think that Jeremiah n scores off a kick as well I can just see him going over the line there for a bit of value n nanan best with New South Wales to win like that multi especially with New South Wales now as The Underdogs I really do like it it has even de a little bit it is 180 from Maron and $2 on Sports bet there for the blues uh but I'd be cashing up on this because I think he'll even ride out before kickoff as well very keen for this one this will be one of the better games of the year so make sure you tune in for the decider very high quality football I reckon we looking forward to here Queensland going to be right up for the contest at home New South Wales a massive test on their hands can they beat Queensland can it be a 13 plus win can we get a similar game that we did uh we saw in game two or is it is is it going to be uh that super tight contest I cannot wait to find out make sure if you haven't already to go ahead and subscribe to the YouTube make sure to become a part of the big Lesar leag Community all the socials will be in the description below we'll see you guys in the next one