Chuck Todd: ‘If Gen Z shows up in numbers that are equal to voters over 65, Harris is going to win’

SHE HAS ALSO MADE NOTABLE GAINS COMPARED TO BIDEN AMONG YOUNG VOTERS. NBC NEWS IS TAKING A DEEPER LOOK AT THAT CRITICAL GROUP OF VOTERS. THE FIRST OF ITS KIND POLL ATTENDING VOTERS AGED 18 TO 29. MORE ON WHAT IS MOTIVATING THEM ON WHAT COULD BE AN UPSET COME NOVEMBER. JESSE RIGHT NOW, VOTERS ARE SUPPORTING VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS IN HER BRACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE. >> IS LOCKED IN. I AM VOTING FOR KAMALA HARRIS. >> I THINK DONALD TRUMP WOULD BE THE END OF OUR DEMOCRACY IF HE WERE TO BE VOTED FOR AGAIN. >> Reporter: AMONG A POLL, NEARLY 50% OF GENTLY VOTERS SUPPORT HARRIS, AS OPPOSED TO 34% SUPPORT TRUMP. MANY INVENTORS WE SPOKE TO SAID THE VICE PRESIDENT CHANGED THEIR VIEW ON THE ELECTION. >> AT THE START OF THE ELECTION, I WAS REALLY WORRIED. WITH CAMILA, I AM EXCITED. IT IS SOMETHING NEW, SHE IS YOUNG. >> Reporter: AGE, SOMETHINGS A YOUNG VOTERS MATTER . 73% SUPPORT SETTING AN AGE LIMIT FOR CANDIDATES TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT. >> I THINK IT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE BOARD. THERE ARE SEVERAL PEOPLE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE WHO I THINK BELONG IN A NURSING HOME. >> A CANDIDATE THAT IS ALSO 80 YEARS OLD HAS NO IDEA WHAT IT IS LIKE TO BE IN MY SHOES. >> Reporter: IN THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE THEY SAID THEY CARE ABOUT RIGHT NOW? >> THE ECONOMY. I HATE TO SAY IT, RIGHT NOW, I AM STILL LIVING PAYCHECK TO PAYCHECK . >> I HAD TO GET A SECOND JOB TO PAY MY RENT. >> Reporter: YOUNG PEOPLE PUT THE ECONOMY OVER ONE IN THE CONCERN THE SELECTION. >> I AM EXCITED TO VOTE, I DON'T THINK THIS ELECTION COULD BE ANY MORE IMPORTANT. >> FRANCIS JOINS ME NOW FOR MORE ON OUR GEN THE POLE. AND NBC CHIEF CRITICAL ANALYST CHRIS TODD. OBVIOUSLY, YOU SHOWED THE POLL NUMBERS, BUT YOU ACTUALLY TALKED TO SOME OF THESE VOTERS. WHAT WAS YOUR BIG TAKE AWAY HERE? >> YES, THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME. AS MENTIONED IN THE PAST, SO MANY VOTERS FEEL ENERGIZED ABOUT THIS RACE, BUT THEY ALSO SAID THAT THEY ARE ALSO NERVOUS AND A LITTLE SCARED ABOUT WHAT IS TO COME. AS WE NOTED, ABOUT 50% OF RESPONDENTS SAID THEY WOULD SUPPORT AND VOTE FOR KAMALA HARRIS, BUT ALSO 34% SAID THEY WOULD VOTE FOR TRUMP. I ALSO WANT TO ADD THE FACT THAT SEVEN IN 10 RESPONDENTS SAY THEY BELIEVE THE U.S. IS READY FOR A FEMALE PRESIDENT. WHICH PRETTY MUCH PALES IN COMPARISON AND CONTRAST, A LOT OF THE CHAPTER WE HAVE HEARD WHEN PRESIDENT BIDEN JUMPED OUT OF THE RACE, A LOT OF PEOPLE SAID, IS A U.S. READY FOR A FEMALE PRESIDENT? GENTLY IS SAYING THEY ARE. AS WE NOTED, AGE IS A BIG CONCERN. VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS RIGHT NOW IS 59, SHE HAS A BIRTHDAY NEXT MONTH, SO SHE WILL BE 60. COMPARED TO FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP, WHO IS CURRENTLY 78. AND 73% OF ALL RESPONDENTS SAY THEY SUPPORT SETTING AN AGE LIMIT AND THEY BELIEVE IT SHOULD ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN 70. AND IF FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP WERE TO WIN THIS ELECTION, HE WOULD BE 82, OLDER THAN BIDEN AT THE END OF THE FIRST TERM. >> IT IS JUST FASCINATING. JUST VERY QUICKLY, A TRAGIC DAY AS WE TRACK ANOTHER SCHOOL SHOOTING. THIS TIME OUT OF GEORGIA. I NOTICED THE POLL ASKED GENTLY VOTERS ABOUT THE ISSUE OF GUN VIOLENCE. HOW DOES IT RANK IN COMPARISON TO OTHER ISSUES? >> YES. IN TOTAL, ABOUT 85% OF GENTLY RESPONDENTS SAID THEY ARE EITHER VERY CONCERNED OR SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT GUN VIOLENCE. AS YOU MENTIONED, WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED TODAY IN GEORGIA. I LOOKED UP A STATISTIC. THERE HAVE BEEN MORE THAN 100 INCIDENTS OF SHOOTINGS ON SCHOOL GROUNDS THIS YEAR ALONE. AS WE MENTIONED, ALSO IN GEORGIA, LESS THAN A MONTH IN SCHOOL. BUT ALSO PALED IN COMPARISON TO HOW GENTLY VOTERS FEEL ABOUT OTHER CONCERNS, IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE BEING INFLATION AND THE COST OF LIVING, ONE IN THREE RESPONDENTS SAID IT THAT IS THEIR TOP CONCERN. I SPOKE TO A 22-YEAR-OLD IN ARIZONA WHO IS IN NIGHT SCHOOL. HE SAID HE HAS TO PICK UP 2 TO 3 ADDITIONAL JOBS JUST TO GET BY. HE SAID THE COST OF GAS IS GOING UP. YOU ARE NOT ABLE TO GET AS MUCH WITH GROCERIES. AS OF THESE ARE REAL CONCERNS. DEPENDING ON WHAT GENTLY VOTERS THINK AND THE CANDIDATE WHO THEY THINK CAN MAKE THINGS BETTER, THAT IS WHO THEIR VOTE IS FOR. >> GREAT REPORTING, THANK YOU FOR BREAKING THAT ALL DOWN. WE APPRECIATE IT. WE WILL BREAK IT DOWN EVEN FURTHER WITH CHUCK AND MARK. MARK, LET ME START WITH YOU. WHAT YOU MAKE OF THESE DENSITY NUMBERS? WHAT IS A SIGNIFICANT TAKE AWAY HERE? >> LOOKING AT THE FIRST RACE OVERALL, OBVIOUSLY A 64 ADVANTAGE FOR KAMALA HARRIS OVER DONALD TRUMP IS BETTER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN A NOT -- LOTS OF NATIONAL POLLING WENT BIDEN WAS LEADING THE TICKET. BUT CERTAINLY EVEN BARACK OBAMA IN 2008 AND 2012, ALL OF THE LATINOS AND OTHER DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS, HERE IS IS IN A BETTER PLACE THAN BIDEN WAS, BUT SHE IS NOT OUT OF THE WOODS POLITICALLY YET. >> YES. THE LAST POINT THAT MARK MAKES SEEM TO BE THIS ONGOING CHALLENGE FOR VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS. YES, SHE IS DOING BETTER THAN BIDEN, BUT SHE IS STILL NOT AT THE RATE SHE WOULD NEED TO BE AT IN ORDER TO WALK AWAY WITH THIS. THAT IS WHY IT IS SO CLOSE. >> THE SPREAD MATTERS SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE PERCENTAGE OF VOTERS THAT ARE UNDER THE AGE OF 35. IT IS JUST AN EASY TEST. RIGHT? IF GENTLY SHOWS UP IN NUMBERS EQUAL TO VOTERS AGE 65, HARRIS WILL WIN. THAT IS WHAT WE SAW WITH OBAMA, THAT IS WHAT WE SAW WITH BIDEN. IF THAT IS NOT, IF GENTLY UNDERPERFORMS WITH THE OTHER THREE GENERATIONS, THEN YOU START, TO ME, THAT IS THE CHALLENGE. BECAUSE THIS IS WHERE, JUST LOOK AT THE 2022 MIDTERMS. YOUNG WOMEN ARE FIRED UP TO VOTE. >> YES. WRITE THAT DOWN. THE ECONOMY IS THE TOP ISSUE. AMONG YOUNG VOTERS, THE TOP ISSUE. ALL VOTERS BY A LARGER MARGIN. BUT CHUCK IS RIGHT. THE ISSUE OF REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS, THE ISSUE OF ABORTION, ROE VERSUS WADE BEING OVERTURNED, IT SEEMS TO BE A MOTIVATING FACTOR AND A CHANGEMAKERS SINCE THE MIDTERMS. >> YES. GIVING IT THAT MOTIVATING FACTOR, I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW THAT THIS POLL, THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE, ALWAYS THE ECONOMY AND COST-OF-LIVING TOPS THAT NUMBER ONE. WHAT IS DIFFERENT ABOUT THIS POLL IS THAT IT IS LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN OUR NATIONAL POLLING. ALSO, IMMIGRATION. MORE THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN OUR OVERALL POLES. BUT WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE ISSUE OF ABORTION, ONE WAY OUR NATIONAL POLL OUTSIDE OF THIS POLL OFTEN DOES IT, IS THERE A SINGLE ISSUE THAT YOU WOULD VOTE FOR, REGARDLESS? AND THAT SINGLE ISSUE VOTER, THAT IS WHEN ABORTION REALLY DOES START TO POP. SO WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE FOR THE ELECTION ? IT DOESN'T QUITE GIVE IT A MOTIVATING FACTOR. >> I THINK IT IS A TERRIBLE CONSTRUCTION. BECAUSE I THINK THAT IS IN THE EYE OF THE BEHOLDER. THAT IS A BIT SUBJECTIVE. SOME PEOPLE SAY THE DEMOCRACY, GOING AFTER DONALD TRUMP, RIGHT? SO I THINK THAT IS A VERY MISLEADING POLL RESULT. EVERYBODY HAS BEEN DOING IT. TRYING TO CREATE THIS UMBRELLA. AND I REALLY THINK IT HAS LED PEOPLE TO A MISLEADING RESULT. >> WE WILL GO BACK TO THE POINT YOU MADE, WHAT ARE YOU SEEING WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE ENTHUSIASM NUMBERS? >> THE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN THERE FOR TRUMP, AND NOW HERE IS HAS GOT IT. THEN YOU START TO LOOK AT THE MECHANICS OF THE CAMPAIGN. AND THIS IS WHERE THE MECHANICS OF THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN LOOK, TO ME, A LOT MORE RELIABLE THAN WHAT THE TERM CAMPAIGN IS DOING. YOU KNOW? LOOK, TAKE GENTLY. THEY ARE BOTH TARGETING SPECIFIC SUB DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS WITHIN GENTLY. OBVIOUSLY, HARRIS IS GOING AFTER YOUNG WOMEN. WELL, TRUMP IS GOING AFTER THE YOUNG MEN. BUT THEY ARE NOT FREQUENT VOTERS. MANY OF THEM ARE NOT EVEN REGISTERED. AND SO THIS HAS BEEN, THEY ARE RELYING, I THINK TURNING THIS OPERATION OVER TO THE STARTING TURNING POINT FOLKS WHO HAVE NO TRACK RECORD. THEY HAVE A TRACK RECORD FOR RHETORIC ON THE INTERNET, BUT THEY DO NOT HAVE A TRACK RECORD OF ACTUALLY DOORKNOCKING. HE HAS OUTSOURCED A LOT OF THE GETTING OUT TO VOTE. IF YOU HAVE A LOT OF ENTHUSIASM, YOU WOULD RATHER HAVE THE ONES THAT KNOW WHERE THESE VOTERS LIVE BAND RELYING ON OUTSIDE GROUPS TO DO IT. >> YOU WRITE, CHUCK, WHOEVER VOTERS SEE AS THE MOST INCUMBENT -LIKE WILL LOSE THIS RACE, EFFECTIVELY. IT IS SO FASCINATING TO THINK ABOUT IT. BECAUSE HARRIS IS IN OFFICE, AND YET TRUMP IS THE ONLY ONE WHO HAS BEEN PRESIDENT BEFORE. >> LOOK AT EVERY ELECTION WE HAVE HAD IN THE 21st CENTURY. SINCE 2005, WE BELIEVE THE COUNTRY HAS BEEN HEADING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. VOTERS ARE LOOKING TO CHANGE DIRECTION IN WASHINGTON ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. MULTIPLE TIMES THE HOUSE HAS CHANGED HANDS, MULTIPLE TIMES THE WHITE HOUSE HAS CHANGED HANDS. DO NOT ATTEMPT THAT IT'S HAPPENED IN THE 21st CENTURY? ONCE IN 50 YEARS. OKAY? YES, A LITTLE BIT BEFORE THEN, BUT THE LAST 40 YEARS WERE STABILITY UPON STABILITY. ONE TERM PRESIDENT THAT WAS PRECEDED BY ANOTHER PARTY AND SUCCEEDED BY ANOTHER PARTY. THIS TIME, WE ARE DOING IT ALL OVER THE PLACE. NO, YOU CANNOT BE SEEN AS THE INCUMBENT. AND THIS IS WHY SHE IS BASICALLY TRYING TO PAINT TRUMP AS THE LEADER OF THIS POLITICAL ERA. THEREFORE, YOU KNOW, HE IS THE END OF THE ERA. OBVIOUSLY, HEY, YOU ARE PART OF THIS ADMINISTRATION. AND I DO THINK IT IS IN THE EYE OF THE BEHOLDER. IF YOU CARE ABOUT POLICY AND YOU DO NOT LIKE THE BIDEN POLICY, THEN TRUMP MIGHT HAVE A SHOT AT YOUR VOTE. BUT IF YOU ARE TIRED OF THE CHAOS, THAT IS A DIFFERENT TYPE OF INCUMBENT OR CHANGE ELECTION. >> MARK, IT ALMOST MAKES THIS MOMENT UNPRECEDENTED. AND YET THIS IS ANOTHER DYNAMIC. >> EVEN ON THE POLICY CHUCK WAS TALKING ABOUT, YOU END UP LOOKING AT PULLING WHERE HARRIS RIGHT NOW IS DOING BETTER ON THE ECONOMY AND IMMIGRATION JOE BIDEN EVER WAS. >> STILL LOSING. >> YES, STILL LOSING, BUT BETTER. YOU SEE, I'M REALLY UPSET ABOUT THE JOE BIDEN PRESIDENCY WERE BIDEN / HARRIS ON THE ECONOMY AND IMMIGRATION. AND ALL OF A SUDDEN, WHEN HARRIS IS DOING BETTER THAN JOE BIDEN EVER WAS, YOU SEE HOW SHE IS NOT BEING VIEWED AS AN INCUMBENT, EVEN THOUGH THE ISSUE OF IMMIGRATION, AND SHE DID HAVE A BIT OF A ROLE IN THE ADMINISTRATION. >> AND THE TRUMP FOLKS ARE DOING EVERYTHING THEY CAN TO SAY, NO, SHE IS THE INCUMBENT. WE HAVE USUALLY HAVE THE DEBATE COMING UP IN LESS THAN A WEEK. MARK, WE SAW THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE DEBATE BETWEEN BIDEN AND TRUMP. WHAT ARE YOU WATCHING FOR? >> I AM LOOKING FORWARD TO SEE IF THIS HONEYMOONING. MAC HAS BEEN A CONDIMENT FOR HARRISON THE DEMOCRATIC ARCTIC. AND I HAVE NOT BEEN IN THE PRESIDENTIAL, COVERING ELECTIONS LIKE THIS WHERE ONE CANDIDATE CAN HAVE A FOUR, FIVE, SIX WEEKS OF NOTHING BUT GOOD NEWS WHERE NO ADVERSITY. AS WE ALL KNOW, EVEN WITH SUCCESSFUL CANDIDATES, THERE IS ADVERSITY. BARACK OBAMA BASIC, DONALD TRUMP, OF COURSE, IN 2016. AT SOME POINT, THERE WILL BE TIME IN THE RINGER. BUT THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF TRANSITION. AS >> IT IS IN MIND, DONALD TRUMP IS ONLY SUCCEEDED IN ONE DEBATE EVER. AND IT WAS BECAUSE HIS OPPONENT WAS BARELY ON THE TOUR. SORRY. IF YOU HAD JUST LISTENED TO TRUMP WITHOUT HEARING BIDEN, YOU WOULD NOT HAVE SAID TRUMP HAD A VERY GOOD DEBATE. HE WAS SORT OF MEANDERING, HE WAS ALL OVER THE PLACE, HE WAS JUST NOT AS MEANDERING IN ALL OVER THE PLACE. YOU KNOW? DO NOT JUDGE ME BY THE ALMIGHTY. YOU KNOW? I THINK THIS DEBATE, TRUMP HAS MORE TO LOSE THAN KAMALA. IF KAMALA HARRIS FLOPS, VOTERS WOULD BE MORE WILLING TO SAY, LET'S SEE HOW YOU DO THE SECOND TIME. TRUMP IS ON HIS HIM ANYTIME THAT HE DOES NOT HAVE THE SAME MARGIN FOR ERRORS WITH VOTERS. THAT WOULD BE A BAD SIGN