Why Brad Keselowski will win the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series championship

whoa we're halfway there yes this is Championship case number eight eight out of 16 we've got a few more lined up here before the Olympic break is over 12 guys locked into the playoffs so we'll talk about them all there's a playlist if you've missed any so yes we will be talking about Brad keslowski today this is not a prediction but we do this for all 16 drivers as I said so Brad keslowski he won the 2012 car Cup Series championship but he's not won it under this format here's his season so far he's got one win that came at Darlington seven top fives 10 top 10 he does not have any stage wins though so only five playoff points to his name at the moment he sits ninth in the regular season standings which gets you an extra couple of bonus points and that's going to be my first point and I will say this is where the championship cases start to get difficult you know with some of these Front Runners lson Elliot even Blain Bell and whatnot they have playoff points they're contending week in and week out and it's like okay yeah just get more playoff points and if not you're allowed to have a mulligan well Brad keslowski is not exactly in that situation as I said only five playoff points to his name and only going to get a couple more from the regular season standings he's 36 points behind the guy in front of him in points so that's not unrealistic it's possible and then you look up further he's only 39 points behind seventh in or sixth in the standing so that's not completely unreasonable but it's a tall task so let's say Brad your goal is to get to sixth but if not just just get as many playoff points as you can the good news for Brad kazlowski a couple of good tracks for him and RFK are coming up Richmond his teammate's the defending winner at Michigan his teammate is the defending winner at Daytona is the track that his teammate is also the defending winner at and Darlington he's the most recent winner so Brad keslowski one of the best super speedway Racers so Daytona he's always got a shot Darlington he's the most recent winner and those other two tracks something else you got to kind of back up on is well your teammate won there one year ago so he's got a shot to get another win but even if he just gets one it's not a lot of points but every Point does count so Brad kazlowski looking at this first round of Atlanta Watkins Glenn and Bristol and this we'll talk about my biggest concern for keslowski here in a minute but Atlanta as I just said Brad Kowski is one of the best super speedway racers in NASCAR he has six wins at Talladega he has I think one or two wins at Daytona he's not woned Atlanta in the Super Speedway era but he got really close in the spring of 2023 he's L laps in the last three Atlanta races he scored stage points including a stage win last fall or sorry last summer it's a fall race now it's complicated but point being Brad kazlowski he runs up front he's got multiple top 10 at this track a runner up finish he's run up front I expect him to compete for the wins at the Super Speedway because as I said he's one of the best in the business and RFK builds really good Super Speedway cars so Brad kazlowski is going to have to shot a shot at the win but but like I say with all these other guys so far is they can afford a Mulan they can afford a race cuz these next two tracks are tracks they can rely on kazlowski situation is different because Brad keslowski at the road courses it's not been pretty guys it hasn't did you know it's been 12 road course races since Brad kazlowski last scored a top 10 a top 10 it was Sonoma of 2022 that's how far back we have to go for a brad keslowski top 10 at a road course Brad kazlowski on the road courses has never been pretty he's never won a race on a road course he got close a couple times of course that iconic finish at Watkins Glenn with Marcos Ambrose but he's never won at a road course and the numbers do not back him up at all at any road course so realistically just survive man in this first round you don't have the points you're going to have to rely on other people's problems you're going to have to stay out to get a handful of stage points they just don't perform at the road courses busher does busher is consistently in the top 10 but Brad keslowski they just he can just not figure it out on the road courses and it is my biggest concern for him if they don't make it through the playoffs if they don't make it to the championship for you're going to look at those road course numbers you're going to look at those road course finishes in the playoffs I guarantee it but if keslowski can score five stage points and get a top 20 it's going to be a tight points battle but he may be able to squeak through at Bristol because Bristol is a track he's won it multiple times he almost won the Bristol Knight race just a couple of years ago before late problems in that race and his teammate Chris busher won it and he scored top 10 in the last two races there including a third place back in the spring so Brad keslowski at Bristol he knows how to win there he knows how to run up front and if it's a tire word game like it was in the spring we saw at the end of the race the veterans really shined in that race because Denny Hamlin won Martin shck second Brad keslowski third those are three guys who have been in the sport a long time three future Hall of Famers they know what they're doing they know how to take care of their tires so if it were to come down to something like that I think keslowski could very well be in contention for the win so I think when it comes down to this first round Atlanta run well you can't afford to wreck though Watkins Glenn can be your bad race and Bristol you can compete for the win you can run really well there so Atlanta and Bristol you're really going to have to run well because Watkins Glenn will not be pretty as for this second round we have kind of a similar concern and situation with the roal but the first two races of Kansas and Talladega there's a glimmer of hope Kansas kazlowski LED 23 laps in this race last fall he finished ninth other than that all of his finishes in the next gen era are outside of the top 10 but the one glimmer of hope I do have if they want to be more competitive not just sit in the n9th to 12th Place range Chris Bucher almost run this won this race in the spring he won a stage he literally lost the race by like that much and Brad kazlowski driving a car similar to Chris Bucher obviously his teammate his team owner so if they bring that speed that they had in the spring with Brad they've got a very good shot of winning this race if not winning finishing in the top five Kyle Larson Denny Hamlin Tyler reick those will be your favorites heading into this race but as we saw in the spring Tyler reck in 2311 didn't necessarily look great Chris busher was honestly a bit of surprise of a surprise at the time because of how poor Ford had been running but now that Ford is back on their I guess all cylinders now uh there's no reason why Brad kazlowski couldn't be running up front like Chris busher did in the spring so maybe he could squeak out of top five or compete for the win here and as for this next track oh boy Talladega what do I have to say about Brad kazlowski at Talladega he's got six wins at the track as I said earlier he's one of the best super speedway racers in NASCAR he'll find a way to get up front he'll find a way to win a stage he'll find a way maybe even to win the race he finished second in the spring he's got multiple top fives in the nextg era he's LED laps he's won a stage actually in the fall last year so Brad keslowski is going to be a contender at this race but as I said with Atlanta you can contend for the win you can score your stage points win stages you just can't afford a wreck here because you're in a bad point situation you have very little points and you got a road course coming up and you don't run great at road courses so you really got to build up those points at Kansas and Talladega so that you can afford a bad road course race and even if you run well it doesn't matter you weren't even thinking about the bubble you breezed on by or of course you could win at Talladega and just Advance yourself through but yeah his roal stats aren't pretty he's got top five but it was in 2019 other than that 18th 14th 20th 18th 31st so yeah Brad keslowski at the road courses especially this next gen era just not good but if he can survive if he can scratch and Claw his way into the round of eight we are done with the road courses Brad keslowski you're back to some ovals with Las Vegas Homestead and Martinsville now Brad k Ki ran top five in this Vegas race all race last fall finished top five in both stages finished fourth in the race and as I said with Kansas if they can bring that speed again and I got to be honest with you looking at this round looking at keslowski not having a lot of points unless they go on a Tony Stewart 2011 run but not having the playoff points not having a lot of them ultimately I do think this round of eight will come down to a must-win situation or a collapse from someone at the front of the field and I think that's you can't Bank on someone else sucking uh so Brad keslowski is going to have to win his way into the championship for as I said great numbers at or Vegas last week they got a top five they LED laps ran top five the entire race last year so maybe it could happen there maybe homestead's not as great finished top five in 2022 and led some laps in 2023 and finished top five in the both stages but finish 28th got to be honest not 100% sure what happened there but let's say they run top five again once again you can top five all three of these races but with the points that lson Hamlin Byron Bell what they all have I would say odds are those guys are more than likely going to perform and it's going to take multiple issues for them to surpass them in the points so kazlowski is at a points deficit it's going to take a must win so he can top five Vegas and homest said all he wants but Martinsville is a different story Martinsville actually you look at the recent numbers you would think Brad keslowski why am I looking at this race his best finish in the next jera 17th why would this be the race well Ford is much better at the short tracks that's Point number one and also Brad keslowski actually crossed the line in fourth in the fall race in 2022 before he was disqualified so we can arue the legit legitimacy of that as long as we want but I do think Brad keslowski is much better at the short tracks he's won at Martinsville before he's won there a couple times I want to say so yeah I just honestly think that Brad keselowski's best chance to get himself into the championship for is Martinsville I know the recent numbers look better at Homestead in Vegas and yes obviously it doesn't matter where you win you need the win but Martinsville he short tracks are better for Ford it's better for Brad keslowski I just think that's his best opportunity to win himself into the championship for and if he does that as I said short tracks are where Ford has performed the best they've won the last two championships because Joey Lano and Ryan blay performed great at Phoenix because Ford team Pinsky but the former team Pinsky still a Ford Guy Brad keslowski could do the same he could pull off the upset in a sense and beat the guys you were expected to win because Ford is so good at Phoenix he finished fourth there in the spring so in conclusion the first two rounds really every round for kazlowski because he doesn't have the points are going to be scratching and clawing your way through the playoffs first two rounds are going to be tough because of those road courses you can't afford a bad race and when it comes to that round of eight ultimately I do think you are going to need to win and I think Martinsville is your best chance I'll go Vegas second Homestead third and then of course yeah Phoenix it's a crapshoot in a sense but Ford has won the last two championships you got a great shot if you get there so that's Brad kazlowski Championship case eight we're halfway there check tomorrow is Alex Bowman so that'll be Championship case number nine looking forward to that one any NASCAR news I will update you on and uh yeah more Championship cases coming your way as I said thanks again for watching