2024 Tour Championship DFS + Betting Livestream GPP Strategy, Outrights Prize Picks + Underdog Props

e e e e e [Music] n [Music] welcome on N Go fans it's your boy GS Luke here with our DFS in bidding live stream for this week's TOUR Championship might sound a little different might look a little different CU we're up here in Atlanta but stoked to give you guys some boots on the ground to action for the Super Bowl of our golf season and Hope you're as stoked as I am into get to get into all of the action so going to talk about what I saw out there some course conditions U maybe how hard or easy the golf course is going to play and then we'll talk through the weather report all that normal DFS stuff that we typically do on a Wednesday to get you ready for all of your exposure so whether you're playing on DraftKings some gpps we'll talk about how to handle all of those a little bit of a weird week with only 30 players to choose from so a little bit of extra stuff that will'll add on that side and then of course for props on Underdog and prize picks because I was able to see the golf course a lot of added Insight that we can talk about there and I haven't even had time to go out there and enter stuff myself I was quite literally in the car for most of the day out there in the golf course and then uh came over here checked into the Airbnb and here we are out here at the live stream so it's been crazy we're going to try and keep this one to probably like 45 minutes as I've got a dinner reservation to get to and uh I've been up since 2:00 a.m. so I'm running on fumes is already going to do our best to keep the energy up for this live stream uh but super excited for this week what's going on brand says greetings Master Luke what's going on buddy love to have you down in chat we got revcloud down there too also stash and Luke hopefully you guys are having a fantastic Wednesday we got Philly Metro down there as well and the ATL is extremely hot right now it is unbelievably hot it was like 95 today it felt like 105 degrees that's what I'll say is that it's going to be very War over the next few days and uh probably going to impact some of these players but let's start it off with a look at the wind forecast uh the weather over the first few rounds uh then we'll talk about the golf course when we get to DFS so I just want to start this off with a look at the forecast which for the first few days doesn't have that much of note in fact over there on Thursday it's sub six miles an hour of wind the entire day and then if we go to the N forecast over here on Friday for East Lake you're going to see much of the same it's sub six m an hour for the entire round and because there's only 30 players right there's no way that there would be an AM or a PM wave you're going to be splitting hairs at best going out there and playing weather so I think for Showdown you might be able to find a little something to cook with if you can find like a really windy um like set of tea times out there for the you know rounds two through four but I don't think for rounds one and two and for main slate purposes that you really have anything to play off of right here so that's what I'll say about that um really it looks relatively flat no matter which bottle we look at so this n model right it's pretty flat out there for Thursday right maybe a little bit windier later but once again it's still only a 30 player spread this medal blue model it looks flat Thursday and then it looks relatively calm out there Friday icon model you're going to see a lot of the same when it comes to these weather forecasts so because of the situation right because it's only 30 players and also because we have such a flat forecast I don't think it's anything that we have to overthink so just wanted to go out there bang that out at the beginning of this live stream so if anyone has a question about it they can uh go back to the beginning and check that out so what I'm going to do is just hop right on into the DFS side of things and I started off with the golf course notes which I didn't get to see a lot of PGA Tour players practicing I got to see a few on the Range before the content creators went and took over um I also saw a few playing their last practice hole or two but because I wasn't there at like 700 a.m. uh it's a 9h hour drive from down there in South Florida I wasn't quite able to catch as much of the PGA tour players as what I was hoping for so this is going to be more Golf Course based that we talk about here and uh in terms of like playing somebody or avoiding somebody because of what I saw on the golf course um that's usually pretty nonsense anyways it's uh Gone our way a few times it's gone against us probably just as many if not more times so well let's talk about the golf course the far more important aspect which this is going to be a hot take I'm just going to get get it out there right off the bat I don't think it's as difficult as some players have said so you may have seen some of the quotes from players saying that it's extremely firm that they think it's going to play really difficult or more difficult I should say than what they normally have at East Lake and it's not like I think it's going to play Easier per se I think a scoring average of like one maybe one and a half under par would be what I would expect out there for round one scoring average um that's kind of what we saw last year it was 1.25 shots under par so I don't think it's going to be a drastic change but with hole number eight being potentially drivable with the addition of a par five on the back nine um it is a par 71 now right so maybe the actual scoring average goes up a little bit but I think the um scoring average to par right comparing to the par 71 um is going to be a little bit better here in 2024 and a couple reasons for that the greens are firm like players have said but you're having a lot of wedges in hand like especially for like the shorter par fors it's going to be scorable regardless of how firm the greens are um it's looking to be warm out there Ball's going to be traveling a long way and on top of that you've also got yourself perfectly perfect conditions right there's no wind out there it's supposed to be pristine the first few days so I think these players are going to get after it I I think you know a scoring average of one and a half maybe even two strokes under par if they give them easy pin locations um is well within reach so beginning of the week especially after hearing like the first few interviews I thought it might play a little bit more difficult I thought around the green might have to look at putting a little bit more than what we're used to but as the week go gone on and you know as that was out there on the golf course um watching guys like fat Perez hit it to two feet um Garrick Clark making a birdie out there in hole number 10 it's not like those guys don't have talent don't get me wrong I watch a lot of them they're they're all very talented players but if they're out there making birdies I saw the leader board I wasn't able to stay the entire time I stayed for like the first like two uh three out there for the beginning group um it's not like they went out there and torched it but a lot of them are minus two right out there at this stage of the event and I think might even have one that got to minus three over eight holes um a PGA Tour player is going to go out there and do a lot better than that you would think I think that there's four maybe even five underpar rounds out there on the back nine in the front nine though I think it'll be a little bit stiffer um whole number one will be harder ho two probably harder than what it was in 2023 you've got eight that's easier it's about 50 60 yards shorter um you've got a fer holes what's the par five uh par five six I believe out there that plays up the hill it's still only about 520 yards so there's going to be pretty looks out there in the front uh compared to what you saw with these slap dicks right shooting like minus two minus three you'd have to think that minus four minus5 maybe even minus 6 is out there on the backside so I've changed my tune a little bit again I think seeing the slappies this afternoon go out there and shoot some low scores uh really changed my opinion of this golf course it's it's still going to be firm don't get me wrong um front pin locations I think that'd be the one real red flag front pins are going to be hard to access so if they go out there they give them all front pin locations uh good luck they are going to have a hard time with that but any mid to back pin locations they're going to have no issues with I mean a a mid pin location a back pin you land it five six yard short they're going to be next to the pin all day especially if they're hitting out of the Fairway and they have spin on the ball I don't have that many worries out there with the field in fact even if you're playing out of that Berita grass rough if you're a long player if you've got a high Apex height um beginning of the week I thought those guys were dead because of how firm the greens were not so much you're going to have enough wedges in hand uh you know if you can par some of the longer harder holes like hole number one and then go out there take advantage of holes like six eight um 10 12 13 uh 14 uh 18 out there the back n Back N has like five birdy holes out of the nine holes that you're playing um you're going to see guys take this place slow so I don't think it's going to be like record scoring I mean if it were to rain a good good Night Irene they'd go out there and absolutely torch this place to death um but I still think you're going to see those minus five minus six rounds so I just want to set the tone there before we start talking about plays because that kind of changes our thought process if we thought it was going to play Super difficult like almost like US Open kind of conditions I heard a few people say that out there on Monday I just think that's over overdoing it a bit right I think it's going to be firm it's not going to be a birdie Fest by any means but you're going to get a lot of birdier better upside out there you're going to have those minus four minus five rounds and in the grand scheme of things that changes up our strategy for large field gbps rather than going out there and trying to hold on for those placement points which will matter at the end of end of the day but aren't as big a deal if there's going to be a lot of low rounds out there your other four maybe even five spots right you're going to need the winner out there in the large field GBP um they're going to shoot a low score and they're going to get those 30 placement points but the other four maybe even five spots in that lineup could very well be guys that just made 20 birdies on the week it might be a guy that's starting an even par like a Justin Thomas that goes out there and gets to that 20 birdies uh you know a sunj at 7500 that goes out there and gets to that kind of Birdie Mark um that's more so what you want to be looking at this week um just because I think the scoring is going to be decent out there now like I said if this was going to be very difficult um that might not be the case right you might want to try and prioritize the guys towards the top but uh over four rounds you're going to see so much leaderboard volatility out there with the guys with starting strokes and by the time we get to Sunday right it won't be the case for Thursday uh if you go out there you stack the guys at the top out you're going to be winning all the money out there at the beginning of Thursday by the time we get to Sunday and you have these you know nuclear low rounds those are going to be what you have to have to go out there and take anything down of consequence so that's what I'll say about the gppp strategy this week is uh you know leave some salary on the table I would say right 30 man field it's going to be hard to get different um ownership's very condensed so I don't have the ownership on here of course right that's over there on the patreon version um but outside of Scotty Xander that are both over 40% rest of the field is all between like 15 to 25% you've got like a stray dog like pavon for example I've got sub 15% but I would say a solid 20 maybe even like 22 to 24 players out there of the 30 by the way right that are out there playing this week are between that 15 to 25% ownership Mark so the other aspect of this is that you kind of just play your guys this week it's going to be more so about the going out there scoring as I said so you want to know that when you're building but also ownership is so spread out that outside again those top two dogs um Xander Scotty shuffler ownership is pretty much non-existent now I guess a pavon like I said he's closer to like maybe 10 11% projected ownership you might get a little bit more different with with him right than let's say like a 19 20% out player but you know if you do that in every spot right you're taking 20% of guys in all six spots then you might have an issue but if you're mixing in a 25 percenter you know somebody that's like 12 to 15% down low that's the exact kind of lineup that you want to build this week the things that add on top of that the things that I think you should be you know thinking about maybe ququ overthinking if you're looking at that way would be leaving salary on the table would be going super studs and Duds right maybe taking Xander and a Scotty in the same lineup if you really want to get different I think that's the way to do it there's just not really a way to do it out there with the ownership angle I guess you could fade Scot Ander you know hope that both of them up top don't get there but with their form with their starting position I would say that they're slim to no chance that one of those two players doesn't get there so you can play both if you want you can split it down the middle I think that's a perfectly viable strategy um particularly if you're entering like more than 20 to 50 lineups uh I also going out there playing one of the two right maybe locking one or or playing them in like 60 80% of lineups um that's viable and then also I guess I mean I'll say I don't really think that fading both is super viable but if you're crazy you want to go out there just play the the idea that it's all about just going out there scoring I mentioned right that that's kind of the case out here right you might have to have the guy that finishes in first but outside of that it might just be all the guys that are going out there and making birdies if you want to play that to the extreme which I think like I said I don't want to call it non-viable it could fade there's two guys up top so just pick your strategy um you could punt it um taking 5050 um I'm personally fading one of the top two guys and obviously if I'm playing Xander shley you guys know what I'm doing all right that was long-winded thing here let me catch up on some water um by the way uh I've got what dinner reservation at 8:30 so we're good on time right now we're only here at 7:15 any specific player questions just let me know down in the chat um any questions about the course I'll field all of those as well but what we're going to do here is just talk through some of the guys that I'm getting to um of course right I talked about a few over there on my DFS preview already but a few that I want to add on top of that and we're also going to talk about some of the ownership Trends out there from range to range so it's not particularly interesting on the ownership side right outside of Xander and Scotty but uh I'll at least point out maybe some of the super highed guys or at least relatively High oned guys um and the guys that are maybe super low on right your Diamonds in the Rough per se where we at what's going on Barry so what's up Luke liking the top 10 Tony this week like what you're doing there a little literation with the top 10 Tony and it's a new course he's got the high ball flight I am not against it decki should be the safest play this week right uh yeah I could see the sarcasm out there in your comments uh not a safe play but he's still got upside I mean if he plays I'm assuming that his health is going to be there so you're going to be sweating the fact on whether he even hits a t- shot but if he hits a t-shot he's out there playing I'd feel pretty good about it so yeah far from safe as I'm sure you know Brant but definitely in play I'd say especially like 30-man field like this especially some somebody coming with the form that he has he's like top two actually might even be number one in form crazy stuff for him let's going to mark this format suits Rory I agree with that seems to loosen the shackles for him I think especially if he's not playing from like minus 8 minus 10 uh I think that's even more advantageous out there for Rory and the one thing I'll say about him too is that a very firm Golf Course is is going to benefit him as I said there's high ball hitters are going to have a much better chance of making birdies and on top of that even if he misses Fairways he has the kind of ball speed he has the kind of Apex height out of the rough to still go out there and attack pins and uh that's the one thing I noticed out there on the golf course um that combines with the creater um classic scoring um but I saw a few guys I think Russell Henley was one I saw him out there on hole number it was 10 out there that he did this ended up hacking it out of the rough to like five six feet and uh the pin was the same one is the creator classic so it wasn't a terribly difficult one but it was tucked just over a little corner so it wasn't like he had a whole ton of room to work with and even out of the rough he still got the thing to stop 5 feet next to the hole so um yeah Rory by the way is like I mean obviously Henley he's not really a high ball hitter he's not known for that sort of thing if if Henley was able to do that Rory can do that with ease I mean that would be like an easy shot for him right let's going on Chase do I think there's Merit defeating Scotty and Xander so yeah I I kind of gave me thoughts on that one already so I probably answered it for you I think that there's credit to it like like you could do it in theory you're probably getting too cute I mean if we're being honest both of those not getting there is is a sub 10% outcome I mean one of those two getting there is probably going to happen at least about 90% of the time but if you know that and you're going to use that as like your one piece of Leverage I I don't think it's out of play I I want to say now I'm not the biggest believer in that sort of thing but it is in play do I have any thoughts on matama very risky I think he fits the golf course in theory um has a high enough ball flight for me also at these kind of greens the ones that kind of slope like this a lot um you have to have a lot of creativity around the green at this golf course that plays into dis hand as well normally 1% product ownership is what we look for but what about in a 30 man field so 1% is way too high actually I I go for lower than 1% product ownership out there in my builds but whatever you're doing for product ownership you're going to be a lot more lenient with it out there in this kind of week so you know if you're at 1% right maybe go to like 3 5% out there in 30-man field and I I think the way that you go out there you make sure you get different you get some leverage to the field might be leaving salary on the table um I mentioned that out there from meain Slate last week um did me a really good job out there with making sure I had unique lineups it might be a lot of the same for me this week I'm 150 maxing out here just like I did out there for the BMW and I haven't Built My lineups quite yet I'll be doing that after I get back from dinner but at least based on my pull I have a lot of chalk in it I have a few lowed guys towards the bottom even middle end of the board even that are lower owned but uh most of my leverage most of my differentiation is likely going to come from leaving salary on the table and then maybe getting funky with some line of construction stuff and then also how do we approach the placement already assigned so kind of like a Sunday Showdown round right you have to consider it it's something that is going to play a factor with how the Slate plays out but it's only one round right and only starting with those kind of Strokes so compared to Sunday Showdown You could argue that it means even less out there from the starting Strokes position however you've got scari minus 10 you've got Xander at minus8 it uh it hits a little bit different when it's those two players what is the money implications for the guys this week I'm particularly asking for Hideki so I'm not sure if he'll get paid if he hits a t- shot and then withdraws if he withdraws before he tees it off I don't think he gets paid so there's a chance that he goes out there he hits a t-shot and then he withdraws um that would be if he got paid in that circumstance uh if he withdraws and he's not going to get paid either way um then obviously that doesn't change things so yeah I don't have the answer for you unfortunately but it could be any one of those scenarios and ke says thanks Luke you're the man appreciate that man all right let's talk through uh some of the ownership stuff on here and some of the plays that I wanted to add on as well um does anyone you want my take on just let me know down in chat uh as I said I didn't see a lot of players out there because of my timing but I did see a few so if you want my thoughts on a player if I happen to see them I'll let you guys know but towards the top end of the board ownership is only on two guys right I already mentioned the Scotty Xander thing but guys like hicki ludvig Rory are all at about 20% maybe just over 20% ownership or in the case of AI well under 20% ownership so if you're looking to get quote unquote different towards the top end of the board really anyone but those top two is going to get you about half if not even less than half the ownership of those top two options so I think that there's some Merit to going down here maybe starting with aor at 9600 uh first off it's super cheap it gives you a lot of flexibility with the rest of your build out there but at the same time you're asking for a very low percentage outcome right for both of those guys up top not even just one of the two to not be optimal for both of them at the same event to not get there um is again I don't think impossible but at the same time it's it's something that I'm not counting on in a lot of my builds so I will have lineups I guess just for full transparency I'm going to have a few lineups that don't start with one of those two up top but it's going to be a minority of my builds I'm going to have well over 80% Xander shle so if I'm going to have over 80% right there um that's going to tell you right I have at most about 20% that' be starting with somebody below one of those top two players um in terms of somebody I want to point out I already mentioned Rory I also bet at plus 1320 to go out there and win without Strokes so obviously somebody I think sets up very well for this golf course but col more Kawa the more that I think this is scorable and I don't think it's going to be as much about um The Firm greens I think there's a lot more to this course that you're going to see over the next four days am moraba makes a whole lot more sense he's only $99,100 he's got all the bird a better upside that You' want um 22% ownership so it's not like you're getting all that different by taking Colin moraba but what you're getting is think a very soft price on somebody that is a top five maybe top six Talent out there in this kind of field so I think in general it's not like he's my favorite course fit he doesn't have the highest ball flight but the other way to do it I mean if you have the high ball flight you could attack some pins out of the rough in theory but the other way to do it is just to hit the Fairway to begin with and because they have made the fairways wider by the way I noticed that today they were significantly wider Fairways out here in 2024 somebody like Colin if he's going to be P Point accurate off the T could just do it with the spin if he's hitting out of the short stuff he's going to have a much better chance of holding the greens which is why I'm not as worried with the low Apex height and he can launch the iron too it's not like he has that low Apex height Windam Clark here 8100 is another guy that I think is just way too cheap um $8,100 for somebody that is the number two birdie maker in the field um and is above Xander shafley by the way out there in that category is the kind of guy that can putt really well on these Bermuda grass greens um lately ball striking has been a lot better than the flat stick form which is a a little bit off brand but if anything very encouraging out there for his future prospects another guy that I'll mix into lineups if if I thought this was going to play Super difficult if I thought it was going to play you know overp par for a scoring average I probably wouldn't want Windam Clark but if I think it's going to be about average difficulty if not maybe even slightly easier than your tour average course then why not give myself a little bit of Windom just like I said up top the the ownership is very spread out in fact if I was going to go through these and try and point out like a low owned option I guess Keegan a little bit lower owned than some of his peers I suppose a benan is a little bit lower owned than some of the other guys around him but almost everyone is in that 15 to like 24% range so it's kind of just to play your guys right if you want to go out there take a chance on somebody whether it's Bermuda putting whether it's form whether it's even history at East Lake trying to look at that um probably not a big deal because of all the renovations but whatever the case is you kind of just play your guys in this week so if it's your modeling if it's the projections if it's The Tout site that you're following I hate to say it but with ownership so flat um even the high owned guys right aren't that much higher owned than your quote unquote pivots to where you have to play the game theory game as much there's just not as much opportunity to go out there and get that leverage so that's what I mean by like play your guys like if you're modeling your projections are really popping on a sort you know specific player this isn't the kind of week in my opinion that you have to talk yourself off of them um there are ways like leaving salary on the table like I said getting funky with your lineup construction that you can use to artificially get different on this kind of slate then the last two guys I'm going to point out here would be Justin Thomas first here at $6,800 and then we'll talk about Tom hogi here in a second as well but JT player with a high ball flight a very aggressive High birdie percentage player has been very inconsistent in 2024 yet is still a top 20 birdie maker out there in birdie a better percentage so and that's despite him having maybe one of the worst Putters out there on the PGA tour and if there's one surface where he's a lot better than his other surfaces on the PGA tour it's Bermuda grass where you can see he's still a slight negative out there for his career but uh he he loses slightly less Strokes out there compared to his other surfaces so you can see right is a little bit better than a third of a stroke per round better on berm Gra which uh doesn't sound huge but for him right if he's missing less of those four to eight Footers out there for birdie he could be a lot more viable in this sort of event so he's super cheap I mean $6,800 Justin Thomas um he's starting with zero starting Strokes so truly one of those guys are going out there and just hoping has birdie or better upside but because the course is playing a little bit easier than what I thought it was going to play before these kind of guys are even more viable for this kind of week then the last guy I want to talk about hope as I mentioned before who's $6,100 he comes in as a top 25 birdie maker in this field and is coming in with Stellar iron play and just like Justin Thomas it's not like he's great out there on the surface in fact right he loses about two 100s of a stroke per round out there on Berita but that's about 056 Strokes better per round than what he's done over his last 24 round Baseline so beginning of 2024 Tom hogi was lighting it up on the greens you had some West Coast POA that maybe helped him out he he tends to like that surface and then also down in the Florida swing um earlier in 2024 is when you play on some Bermuda greens and of course at East Lake it's true I believe Tiff Eagle Bermuda grass that they're playing on here in 2024 Tom hogi is a lot better at least on Bermuda grass for his career than what we've seen from him lately so the ball striking stats have been fine uh I think you know the Apex height leaves a lot to be desired but just like a Colin morawa if he can go out there and hit a bunch of Fairways I don't worry about that as much with an elite tier iron player like a Tom hogy so um down low hopefully it gives you an idea of the sort of players that I'm looking for um birdie her better percentage has moved up a lot in my consideration this week and then just regular old iron play I think that you can still go out there access some pins um I was really worried that this was just going to be an around the green Fest if the greens were as firm is at least what the players were kind of bitching about but they're not nearly as bad as I think as what you you would expect after hearing some of the player quotes and as such guys like GT Tom hogi Elite level iron players I think can go out there and throw some darts at this kind of golf course uh like I said far from soft there's still um very firm complexes out there but I don't think it's the end of the world out there either like you're still going to have a chance to hit it to five to eight feet um not saying that JT or Tom hogi are going to make those putts but uh maybe they'll make a few more this week because they're out there on ber grass so hope it gives an idea of my exposure for this week and uh we'll catch up on any specific questions if you have any and uh if not we're going to talk through a few lineups together some lineup construction thoughts build a lineup or two and U give you a little bit of an idea on that end do you have any thoughts on Shane Lowry so he's accurate off the T you like that that he's got low Apex height which can be problematic at a firm golf course now at a link style setup it'll be firm there but you can play it along the ground you can't really do that at this kind of golf course so I worry about that aspect with Shane Lowry but very accurate off the tea is a top 10 accuracy player out there in this kind of field so he'll be able to spin the ball especially if he's having a good driving week so I don't think he's out of play but the the Apex height thing I don't think it's like the end all be all but um it is a a little knock on a player like that it seemed like havind was wild off the tea last week um what was his driving accuracy percentage um he's actually been a lot better off the te recently than what he was in 2024 maybe last week right you're right he missed a few more Fairways than what he's used to but in general Michael his ball striking lately has not really um been the problem it's actually been the putter at least over like the last three four events that has been a little bit inconsistent out there for um big dick Vic so I've got to say this golf course before the renovation set up really well out there first game we'll have to see after the changes if that is still the case but yeah off the te he's been he's actually been a little bit better than you might expect recently let me bring up DraftKings let's build one lineup together to give you guys an idea of what we're doing over there and by the way if you haven't already smashed that like button go out there and do so uh help get this out there to even more people this boots on the ground information and uh let's have ourselves a week so we're just going to build a lineup here together we're just going to talk through kind of my thought process when going through one of these lineups um this will be for the larg field gpp so this will be for one of like the big $5 big 25 big 50 c if you're you know on those kind of stakes for this kind of week and uh how I'm approaching that kind of contest because as I said ownership you know outside of those top two it is really concentrated it's a like I said it's it's not really spread out out there with the rest of the field so if you're going to get different you're going to try and get some leverage this week or try and make sure you're not duplicating yourself with other people um you're going to have to do it out there with leaving salary on the table right that lineup construction aspect um so we'll focus on that but uh as I said right smash that like button if you guys haven't already and um let's get ready to build a lineup here I'm going to plug in my phone real quick I'll be right back I need this to be charged so I can use my Uber here in a few minutes and uh we'll be able to line up together so one second and by the way a pretty pretty sweet Uber setup that we have here uh or Airbnb I should say I don't know why I said the Uber setup but uh pretty good setup we got at this place that's for sure all right let's build a lineup here so what we're going to do for this build is we're not really going to worry about the ownership all that much uh you're going to see right that lineup construction that salary is going to be where we're getting that differentiation to the field so I'm going to throw Xander into this kind of build I'm going to throw in a Colin as the second man in Windam Clark at $8,100 we'll throw in Sanjay at 7500 a billy hoe at 71 and while it might be a little tempting to go out there and even take a thala here right that's leaving just $200 on the table by leaving salary on the table I mean like at least going down to a JT and that would be leaving $400 right there if not going the whole way down to somebody like a Tom hogi and leaving a whole like $1,100 out there on the table um this kind of lineup is going to have a much much lower chance of being duplicated which I mean you got to put it this way last year the winner was duplicated like three four times I'm sure the guys that won that were thrilled right out there with their weekend DFS but the fact of the matter is if you're a long-term DFS player if you're Pro I mean you know this right you're going to be just like rolling your eyes and how simplistic this is but sharing and chopping those kind of contest is about the worst thing you can do out there for your Roi which for a lot of people that have been around in DFS for a while you probably know that right you probably know you know differentiation getting different making sure you're not splitting first place is massive especially on a sport in gpps that are as topheavy is what we have on a week like this um going out there and in making sure that doesn't happen is like the key on a week like this uh leverage going to be tough to get like I said ownership really spread out across the field but making sure you're not going to duplicate yourself is by far the most important thing that you can do now in a single entry in like even like a thousand entry contest so let's say it's like a gpp but there's only like a thousand or like 2,000 entries maybe you don't worry about it as much in those builds because uh your chances of a duplicate are a lot lower in those kind of builds but like the big $5 the big $25 I'm probably going to be spending at most like $49,500 um if not at most like $49,800 out there in those kind of lineups I'm going to be leaving significant salary on the table and you can see here I mean we we've got a lineup built here that still has Xander that still has guys like morava Windam Clark out there in the mid- tier range who by the way are still starting with starting Strokes out there with those kind of guys and we have $1,100 left on the table and we still have guys like Tom hogi as our cheapest man um you can easily build these kind of lineups and still have um lineups that are projecting very well out there from their projections so that's what I'll say about building this week I can't give away too much right as I'm still playing against a lot of you guys out there but uh I think that's the best way to approach this kind of week it's just like the BMW right I mentioned this same kind of strategy last week um but it's even more so the case with just 30 players to choose from with 50 players it was tough to get different I had a much higher chance of duplicating a 50 player field a 30 man it is like exponentially more the case um out there in a week like this so that's all for the DFS section now we're going to go over there to prop so if you were just here for DFS I still appreciate all of you guys stopping by hopefully went through all the content that you guys were looking for on that side if not just let me know with a question down in chat right I'll try and circle back to what you guys are looking for but uh best of luck with all of your exposure this week especially if if you're heading out of here because you were just here for DFS I'll still appreciate you guys stopping by but go out there take down a GBP for your boy and uh we'll be back for round two through four showdowns so just because I'm here on vacation does not mean we're going to be skipping out on the live streams uh so for Showdown out there for props rounds two through four uh you guys know the deal we'll be doing the same thing um a little bit quicker streams probably closer to like 45 minutes on a week like this just because I got to get dinner and all that in the belly but uh still going to be doing the live streams that's for sure so best of luck out there and uh let's catch up on any last second questions if there are any Scotty said it was hard to run up shots because of the grass around the greens exactly right right so that's why I said like a link style course like Shane Lowry for example could get away with the low on ball flight you can't do it this week because they're all perched up which is why you can't go ahead and like run them up a lot of them have bunkers in front of them and then also it's it's R in front of the green in a lot of cases so um you're right on that they're they are difficult to hold but on all the easier holes they're not difficult to hold I mean they were hitting wedges to like five feet out there so um if you're in the rough on like a 200 yard approach it's going to be diabolical um ball is gonna ping pong off the green so for example when we wake up tomorrow hole number one you're going to see some crazy [ __ ] happen because that's a 500 yard power for um it's it's got the length it's going to be early in the day you probably see some misses off the tea right because it's your first t- shot um first green might be really difficult to hit so I I think if you wake up tomorrow you see the first toll you might be like wow this golf course is really hard now just just give it like an extra 30 minutes to an hour then make your judgment about the golf course is what I'll say about that but let's talk about props so in terms of props for this week oh DraftKings wants my location okay that's okay we're up here in Atlanta DraftKings if you want to know but uh in terms of the averages right we could take a look at this from 2023 but I don't think it's all that applicable Golf Course by the way changed from a par 70 to a par 71 but on top of that it's going to play so much firmer this year that you know trying to use these stats from 2023 and you know use them with any kind of certainty is a Fool's eron at the very best so what I think the best case or plan of action out there for tomorrow is is to wait until we can see some of the scoring and then go out there and adjust now we're not just going to do for our exposure we're going to go out there try and find something to play ourselves but if you're on the fence maybe you miss some of the value on here um maybe it bumps you're watching this on replay just sit tight watch some of the scoring averages as they come in over the first like half an hour to maybe an hour of tea times and you can go out there and enter some stuff for the mid to later guys so I think that's first off probably the best way to go out there and play but based on what we've seen I think the best place to play if I was going to play right now would be Underdog and would be to try and find some positive stance plays um they've got some guys at four and a half birdies that I think are going to play unfortunately a lot of them do have a 0.9x multiplier uh and then The Strokes board here on Underdog is 0 five to uh yeah I think it's like 0 five or zero Strokes higher than a lot of these other prize picks lines so if I think it's not going to be as bad as kind of what the players were hyping it up to be then the place to play would be over here on the underdog side now that being said the only props that I've actually entered at this point um like I said I still haven't had time to completely react to the board after getting off the golf course I had to go live here immediately after we got home but in terms of the props that I've already entered I took a an under on Matthew pavon pars so that one is still up and then I ended up feading Adam Scott at 68 and a half strokes and now he's up to 69 and a half so obviously that one bumped through the roof I probably wouldn't touch it at this point but yeah this under and pavon still stands um even with it being maybe a little bit easier than I thought a day ago um pavon is still coming in with the worst form of the field quite quite literally losing Two Strokes per round to the field um which is dead last in the 30 players that made it here to East Lake so yeah if there's anyone to fade it's pavon there on prize picks I took that with uh the college football free Square by the way out there for my exposure so if you want to take that feel free to go out there and tell it yourself but an underdog is I think probably where I'd want to get my exposure as of this very second right I entered that prop with pavon yesterday but after what I saw today minus two I think is a very realistic score for like your top tier players and for a guy coming in with a lot of form one of your world's best players I think that minus three is a very reasonable round now these guys like Scotty Xander that are at 67 and a half uh they'd have to shoot minus four to go under this sort of line that's where I kind of probably you know draw a line right that that's a really low round even out of course that I don't think's going to be that bad but these guys at 68 and a half like for example like a havland a Klay a more Kawa especially I'd say at like 60 and a half Strokes there's not a bunch of Sportsbook line value out there on their unders but I don't think that they're the worst leans so I haven't entered any of these myself I'm going to have to see what I get to over the next few hours uh I'll be looking at the board while I'm out there at my dinner reservation but I'm thinking there's going to be some under that I play now yeah Hideki is at 68 and a half on both sides I think the main ones that really stuck out is maybe even this horal under 69 and a half like I said a minus two round which would be a 69 by the way at a par 71 I think is in play for like your average cat at this kind of field um Billy Hoe by the way more than an average cat especially with the kind of form that he has coming in um but like yeah more CWA at 68 and a half that one definitely stuck out uh a cantlay has been playing some really good golf like I wasn't on these a day ago like I wasn't even looking at these unders on Strokes because uh again they all complained oh it's so firm out there oh it's going to play so much harder I think that it it's going to play easier than the scoring average last year and let me uh stop sharing this so I can bring up data Golf and just show you guys what we're talking about scoring average from last year again granted it's a par 7070 last year it'll be a par 71 this year so that's going to be part of this change of course but the scoring average last year was 60 I guess it was what 6876 would be the scoring average from last year yeah 68.7 six I think it's going to be like a 69 scoring average which uh in terms of raw Strokes might be slightly harder than what we had for last year but that's minus two as compared to minus 1.24 so um it's not it's not like I think it's going to play hard by any means out there so that's all I've got for props though guys as per usual right all of my exposure is going to be posted over there on the patreon page so just like the spreadsheet that you see that was censored on here over there on the patreon that is a force posted completely uncensored out there for you guys to see it includes my entire player poll by the way so yes I do give my patreons my entire player poll out there for any given week and over there on the prop side I give out every single slip that I'm playing so not just like a list of the props that I like but uh actually where I'm putting my money so and if I decide to go bigger on a certain prop right I'll mention you know that I like something a little bit more I'm all over there on the prop side so make sure to check that out if you guys want all the different props that I'm entering but uh I think most of my exposure is going to come after we see some of the play tomorrow um I want to see what these PJ tour players are going out there and posting for scores and uh I'm probably still going to enter some stuff tonight right maybe it is this moraba under maybe it is a can't lay under we'll have to see right end up getting for my exposure but I think most of my money and especially like the big dollar stuff that I'll do will probably be after we see the golf course a little bit so I think if there's anything to leave you guys with it's that it's the play it smart on a week like this U just don't take unnecessary risks right go out there wait till we have the information to work with uh if you want a little bit of a Sweat Right we went over a few options you might want to mix in for a little bit of a sweat but wait for the heavy duty stuff until we really know what to expect from the course so that's all I've got let's catch up on the chat and then uh hop on out of here Zar says yeah you took some Fades early I kind of did the same right like so I told you um I faded Adam Scott Strokes I took the under on pavon pars so I'm kind of there with you Mark I don't know if I'd be sweating it that much I honestly think the pricing is pretty decent across the board for a lot of players so if you have some overs I don't think it's the end of the world out there but yeah I definitely don't think it's as hard as they were hyping it up to be that's for sure it's going on Kim says Henley top 10 finishing position um yeah so it's essentially finishing in the top third of the field I think it's a pretty fair line if we're going to be honest but he is coming in with some good form what's going on Antonio hopefully you're having a solid evening unfortunately we're just finishing up the live stream I've got a dinner to get to but uh hopefully you have a good week man hopefully you're having a solid night and then Kim also says do I have any fades for like the five birdies on prize picks I actually think the birdie average is going to be over four and a half per round so you know the guys they have at five are guys like hin Rory Scotty Xander they had up there at five birdies at one point I don't really like Fades on those guys because they're better than average players and I think the birdie average is going to be at least like four and a half birdies if not even a little bit higher than that out there for the field so maybe not my favorite of course 3B says thanks Luke keep killing it thank you for stopping by and I absolutely will Jesus says hey man what do I think about some of the bogey props so my favorite Jason if you're just joining us would be the under on pavon pars or better so that's on prize picks that's a two and half bogey line essentially out there for pavon um I think for like the elite tier players you could even look at some unders on Bogies um so or some overs I guess on pars are better but somebody like pavon that is just in such [ __ ] form that's the kind of guy I'd be looking to fade so kind of depends on the player Jason and uh I think you can find Value on both sides of course Kim hopefully you have a solid week and like I said got to go ahead call it at that uh that's all we've got out there for the live stream go ahead smash that like button if you guys haven't already and uh I'll see you guys for the content throughout the rest of the week tomorrow there on Twitter I'll try and take some videos of players out there on the course I'm trying to give you guys a little bit of extra information about what I see out there with conditions as well and uh let's go out there and Crush our exposure round one might be a little bit light right no Showdown uh lighter props for sure out there for tomorrow but rounds 2 through 4 is where we go out there and really get after it so make sure to tune in for all the content all the live streams throughout the weekend uh covering all that content uh that's all I've got though guys appreciate you stopping by and uh let's get it this weekend