Tracking Francine The latest on potential impacts in our area

all right hey there I'm chief meteorologist Jason Smith here with meteorologist Jennifer Lamers and we are tracking what's going on with Francine a hurricane you know and made it up to 100 mph system as it came ashore that is exactly right and so we were tracking that closer towards 5:00 p.m. when it made that landfall approach it was that category 2 hurricane at that time now it's beginning to weaken expected as it's moving further Inland uh but we're still expecting more of those impacts here locally yeah and I think a lot of people when they hear okay it's made landfall okay we've seen it all we're going to see and that's not what that means landfall means that that's what it's going to be when the center actually crosses Shore in Louisiana but it'll actually be closer to us later tonight so our most intense impacts are going to be later and we're starting to see signs that on uh radar and down at the beach right now yeah I wanted to quickly show this one just before we start to lose some of that sunlight that's just barely holding on out there we're getting closer towards Sunset just within the next few minutes here at our local reaches and that camera it is shaky out there those waves breaking extremely far offshore it's rough just a reminder double red flag stay out of the Gulf Waters it is illegal we've been showing some of the video footage that we've been getting in of some folks that are swimming out there but please make sure that you're staying out of it if you see anyone out there yell at them tell them that that is not a smart decision because they not only put themselves at risk but they put others at risk too so just a live view out of the beaches there yeah and the center cross Shore in tabone Parish and there's no exact City for landfall but it's essentially the H Morgan City area because uh where it actually crossed Shore is just a real marshy area and it's very low population density the core of the storm is starting to get closer to New Orleans and we're seeing some pretty substantial gust showing up especially over the west side of New Orleans and there probably are going to be some power outages in New Orleans with us locally we're watching out of into the Gul for the possibility of seeing you know some real heavy rain bands in our area and I expect that to start happening pretty soon uh we can see that heavy stuff kind of over our shoulder here that'll be moving in starting around 8:00 p.m. it looks like maybe sooner and so some of the questions that we've been getting here is how do I prepare what are we expecting here to where what preparations need to take place and really the biggest things is going to be charging your devices make sure you have a way to get any of those alerts tonight because we're having that tornado threat mainly into the overnight hours plus also just try and stay off the roadways once those rain bands begin to move in as you mentioned it's going to be dark it's going to be rainy it's not going to be the best driving conditions out there and anything that's Outdoors that could easily be blown away go ahead bring it inside you don't want to lose it yeah we're talking about tropical storm conditions here we're not going to get a hurricane here but 40 mph gusts can move things around a little bit so uh definitely something that we want to keep an eye on there also um you know the storm tide and we're going to get into this in this deeper discussion that's most likely going to happen tomorrow morning because the winds have to kind of Veer around out of the South and that happens tomorrow morning along with the astronomical high tide that's like a 2ft tide at 6:00 a.m. that's when we're going to see coastal flooding so Bayway Causeway commuters just a heads up that you will see delays heading into tomorrow even if you just take the Bayway every day imagine all of the causeway commuters that you typically see because of that closure all of those cars will be taking the Bayway instead so leave early tomorrow go ahead and plan on some of those lane closures some of those delays in case you're heading to work on your Thursday again we are anticipating that the causeway will be closed for some time tomorrow morning even after that tide begins to go down just because we're going to have to they're going to have to get Cruise out there to clear off some of the roadways Ariel mallerie was talking with some of the alot folks earlier were mentioning that that it's probably going to be late morning closer towards lunchtime that we could possibly see it reopen and other areas like the West in a dolphin Island Alabama Port shell Belt Road Coden batery the mouth of dog River probably won't see quite as much coastal flooding along the Eastern Shore but I think Mobile County and then Jackson County Mississippi some of those areas here's a look at it right now on the uh infrared satellite picture Jennifer and so what's kind of interesting the structure of the storm is changing there is some drier air getting entrained but on the Northern flank we're seeing some dark colors over New Orleans and that's that bursting of heavier convection near the center still and that's more of what what we're going to be anticipating later on for this evening more of those rain bands pushing closer towards us so that's why we're kind of waiting for that threat here locally New Orleans is really seeing those impacts at this time more of that Heavy Rain that tornado threat closer towards the Louisiana coast but as we get further into the overnight hours you may have stepped outside it's just a little bit of a drizzle out there we're noticing some of those Breezy conditions beginning to pick up but only expecting more of those conditions to ramp up overnight and so with the structure of the storm one of the things that's going on here is that we're seeing Shear taking place out of the West and so that's bringing some drier air in and that may wrap some drier air on the southern flank but it it may lops side the system a little and throw all the moisture over on our area that's exactly right and so that's also why uh the futurecast models they've been in a little bit of a disagreement mainly in tomorrow morning's picture they were leaning towards some of that dry air wrapping in and helping just to see less rain heading into tomorrow morning but there's a look at that water vapor that Jason was just mentioning and that's why there were so many factors at play here with mentioning what Francine was going to be looking like at that landfall approach the National Hurricane Center all day today they had knocked it down to that um category one hurricane projection and then just an hour before landfall it was upgraded to that category 2 as Jason mentioned it had some of that convection on top of it so it gave it that last little boost of energy to get those sustain gained winds to 100 mph and so that was the reason for really in the last hour of Francine being over the water it became that category 2 hurricane and we're in storm tracker alert mode here on Foxon news we're going to keep a crew here overnight uh pretty soon we expect meteorologist Nicholas herboso to be in the building he and I will be watching this closely overnight and if we see you know of course we're going to have Fox 10 News at 900 p.m. and then again at 1: p.m. but we're going to have extended coverage as necessary if we start to see tornado warnings that kind of thing and we have impactful weather we're going to break into programming here's a look at it right now winds are down to 85 this is the 7:00 advisory so it was at 100 now it's down to 85 but it's still a hurricane the forward speed is actually good it's moving Northeast at 17 So the faster it moves the less likely it's going to sit in one area and have those compounded impacts you know we saw that with uh Sally where it sat in one spot and you had all that heavy rain and just went on for like 20 4 to 36 hours that's not going to be the case with Francine that's exactly right it has more of those steering forces with it it's going to get it in and out of here and also something else to note too is that it was 100 miles hour at landfall but now it's 85 miles hour it's only been Overland here for a few hours once it continues to push into Southern Mississippi we're expecting even more of that weakening and so that's why we have those tropical storm warnings in place here because we are going to be getting more of those tropical storm Force conditions not the hurricane conditions here and there are two reasons why it's falling apart one is the fact that you know the source for these Tropa systems is warm water and the lat and heat release and so you take it away from the Gulf of Mexico and it loses its source but upper levels we've got dry air and sheer pushing in from the west and so the sometimes you see a travel system that really takes a while to wind down not going to be the case uh with Francine here we got plenty to show you so we're going to get right into it here and want to talk about what the models are suggesting and this is the graph version the future cast and while the Center May kind of be over New Orleans by 10 p.m. or a little Northeast of there along the NorthShore the conected bands could end up right on top of us here well to the east yeah and so that's really what's going to be playing a factor in tonight's forecast that's where we're going to start to track some of that Heavy Rain that's pushing in those tropical storm force winds plus also that tornado threat that we be tracking heading into the overnight hours only continuing heading into early tomorrow morning but I mentioned that dry air that the futurecast models are really leaning towards to start off for your Thursday so I mean take a look at 8:00 a.m. tomorrow mobile balwi counties possibly even seeing some of the peaks of sunshine to start off as you're stepping out the door but as you approach further towards the east near Panama City the Big Bend region they're still experiencing more of those showers before more of this pushes into northern Mississippi and Alabama really bring in those impacts closer towards Montgomery and Birmingham we're clear and quiet heading into tomorrow night so we will see our heaviest rain and our storms this evening and into the early morning hours by the Daybreak the rain will be gone but our storm surge values will actually increase into early tomorrow morning I've seen this a bunch of times with trop systems where there's a little delay especially when you have a fast moving system but this is coinciding with the astronomical high tide and so we expect the biggest surge later that'll be around Daybreak even as the rain's wrapping up models are all in really good agreement with where this thing is going it's going to kind of just pull up across Southeast Louisiana and head up into Mississippi so we've got a really good looking forecast there uh we do see it going stationary as we head up into the mids South up around Memphis but uh it'll be out of our hair at this point now checking out Francine 65 mph winds as we look at it we' got it Crossing up uh by 1:00 a.m. right near Louisiana Mississippi line it'll likely no longer be a tropical storm by midnight perhaps sooner you know even the 10:00 advisory I'm going to see this thing disintegrate very very quickly and then from there it moves up into northern Mississippi and the impacts are going to be over with fairly quickly for our area after the tides begin to recede tomorrow afternoon that's exactly right and as you mentioned kind of stalling out there a little bit in the Midsouth we can see once it gets closer towards northern Mississippi into the Memphis Area it's just going to be hanging out between Thursday at 1: p.m. to even that Friday at 1: p.m. time stamp so really expecting a soggy situation towards that direction but but in the wake of Francine once it makes that Northerly approach as you mentioned we're just going to have more of that moisture just beginning to suck up into Mile Bay in addition to the high tide that we're going to be dealing with and so that storm surge the impact's going to be felt early tomorrow morning plan that for your commute and especially if you live along the coast we'll talk about the wind a little bit this is probably going to be the lowest impact thing we're going to see with this system would be winds and there are some gust to about 40 mph offshore one of the buoys obviously New Orleans getting wind gust over 50 m an hour right now we've seen gust with some of the Offshore platforms up in the 80s uh locally I'm expecting wind gust 40 maybe some 50 mph stuff but um this is not going to be a huge Wind Maker I mean it's just not coming right over us and the tropical storm force winds should be in place by 900 p.m. and so this is what I was mentioning earlier just make sure that you have that stuff outside that's tied down just if it could easily be blown away so I've been seeing some of those Halloween inflatables out there the fall decorations your trash cans I know my trash day is tomorrow I'm not putting it out tonight I'm going to wait tomorrow and so just those things that could easily be blown away the patio umbrellas any of those flag poles that you might have out there it's best just to play it safe you don't want to wake up tomorrow and it be missing well I guess that's what you get for putting up your Halloween stuff in September I mean I should have known you were going to say oh yeah right I got to take my shots there so it's just too early deorations there fall decorations yeah that comes in like you know October so here's what we're seeing with the wind it lifts out of here but we still have the slly flow it's going to be persistent tomorrow morning and that's what actually enhances the tide you know you have some swell From the Rough surf but the wind driven water is what creates Surge and this is really not going to be truly surge in area it'll be kind of moderate coastal flooding but that south wind will help pile those Waters up and then the normal high tide around 67 not a good situation for the morning drive tomorrow so as far as alerts we are under a storm surge warning for Jackson County Mississippi all the way back around to uh almost to Lake Charles around new area Louisiana we're not in a storm surch warning for mobille County and Balwin County but we still expect significant coastal flooding we got a coastal flood warning which is not quite as severe but still significant and I'm expecting generally 2 to three feet on top of that high tide probably around 2 ft on Dolphin Island a little higher in places like baty and along the west side of Mobile Bay may see a little higher tide along the Eastern Shore too but it's areas along the causeway and dog River and foul River and then down to the South where we normally see a little bit more problems with the coastal flooding with the system passing while Tire West yeah so you just want to make sure that you're checking in with meteorologist Matt barentine and meteorologist nicholo herboso earlier to early tomorrow morning if you're heading out the door just make sure in case you do travel along any of those waterways or in case you take the Bayway or the causeway for your commute check in with them for those road conditions they'll keep you updated beginning at 4 4:30 a.m. on Foxton news tomorrow throughout the 9:00 a.m. hour on those traffic conditions but even keeping you updated through midday for any of those traffic disruptions so this is one of the official Maps here and again I don't know if we see 3 to 5 ft but uh it's definitely possible over towards Jackson County Mississippi with that and we still can see a little water level rise across the Florida Panhandle so those are some things to keep in mind with some of our our francene Graphics got to talk about isolated tornadoes because this kind of be counterintuitive for people who are uh new to hurricanes and new to Tropical systems a tornado cannot create a hurricane but a hurricane or a tropical storm can create a tornado so we can see isolated tornadoes forming around these outer bands and when when that happens you know because we've got the spin in the atmosphere they're normally not super strong they can be brief but they can come with little warning that's exactly right so that's why it's going to be so important to have a way to get those alerts heading get this evening you can download the FOX 10 weather app if you allow it to have your location you will only get those warnings if you are located within the polygon also just now I was looking at all of these uh comments on Facebook in case you have any questions for us we are following along we'd love to answer some of those for you and so we did just get a question uh amber asking if those tornadoes were still a threat heading into this evening and so we do have that tornado watch that is in effect for our Coastal Waters we were seeing some of that rotation offshore earlier now right now New Orleans and Coastal Mississippi are the only ones included in this tornado watch but something to point out here that is a separate National Weather Service office that is going to be the weather service office located in Slidel Louisiana ours here locally is really our viewing area and they had mentioned that we have a high likelihood of having this tornado watch issued since our threats are mainly on the rise heading into overnight Highest Potential closer towards midnight 1:00 a.m. that's likely why we're seeing our tornado watch potentially be issued here and potentially be issued later so do just say stay tuned with us have a way to wake up overnight if any of those tornado warnings are issued yeah I definitely expect it you know 9 10:00 and then up through about 1 or two in the morning with the possibility of some of those isolated tornadoes rain total is about the same we're still expecting about 2 to 4 Ines in the area we could see some higher totals some isolated amounts but because it's moving so fast I don't think that freshwater flooding is going to be a big part of the system now saltwater flooding from coastal flooding that's different we're going to see some moderate coastal flooding but freshwater flooding is not going to be a huge deal and just to reassure you this is not going to be something that will impact the weekend we are expecting to see good weather as we head into Friday Saturday and Sunday the drier air wrapping in will probably knocker humidity down a little bit and the more the days are going to get a little bit hotter but our rain chances are low only 20% on Sunday a lot better there and so really we just have to get through tomorrow morning that 80% that you see on the Thursday forecast it's mainly going to be for the morning we'll start to see some of those improvements by the afternoon they turn a bit more isolated heading into the evening once we continue to be in the wake of Francine um I was just continuing to monitor some of your comments here aah was saying that the lights are blinking off and on where she is located and that is something that we were expecting heading into today the power outages still something that could happen but those power outages can happen with any sort of thunderstorm here that we have to deal with on the Gulf Coast it doesn't take much to break some of those tree limbs out there so it's best just to go ahead double check that your devices are charged just in case um have a way to get those alerts again uh but power outages they are possible heading into tonight so it's best just to always be prepared in case we see that yeah and we actually had a traffic accident in the Grand Bay Area that knocked down a power pole I think there so some of that is Loosely related to the system just from you know normal stuff going on unfortunate things accidents that kind of a thing um but I wouldn't be surprised to see some spotty power outages in our area but this is not going to be a crazy wind event where the entire city of mobile the entire Eastern Shore is without power it's most likely going to be localized yep so just something to keep in mind always best to be prepared all right so we're pulling it up on radar now and we wanted to talk about you know where's the rough stuff and it's still offshore it's over the chandelier Islands here and once that stuff starts to come in I'll freeze the radar for you here so you can see uh exactly where we uh expect this to have a bigger impact and looking at it here it looks like most of of the bad stuff is going to be going on over Dolphin Island and uh short term and then eventually it's going to be more of an issue further to the north so we're definitely looking at the possibility of rough weather in the area as we head into the overnight hours tonight and um we're going to have Gusty winds we're going to see a little coastal flooding it certainly looks like an active weather situation for our area uh and here's a look at it on high res so that might help clarify things for you a little bit the worst of it down way to the south of pasca gulou where you see that red in the bottom left hand corner of your screen that's the worst of it uh we will be covering this on our FOX 10 weather app we're also going to have Team coverage tonight at 900 p.m. on Foxon news that's about the time the weather's going to start ramping up so we'll be keeping a close eye on the weather situation as it goes downhill for a while we expect to see active weather overnight tonight across the GF Coast that's exactly right and also I did see some questions there on some of the school closures that are in place for tomorrow you can always double check what's open and what's closed on fox10tv.com we'll continue to update that list throughout the evening if any of those changes are made thanks for joining us