Breakouts, Busts, & Rookies: Quick guide to win Fantasy Drafts

Intro what's up everybody Nick whan here from Roa wire I'm joined by Jim Coventry Jeff Erikson in this video we're going to give you one undervalued player one overvalued player and one rookie we're each targeting in fantasy drafts this season let's get right to it guys we'll start with you Jeff give us a player any position you found to be underrated relative to ADP underrated let's go Josh Undervalued- Josh Jacobs Jacobs uh Green Bay Packers uh RB 13 in the nfsc roir online Championship uh that's around pick 43 uh that's B the fourth round I think he's at worst a third round player although I will say this so many of us are going running back hero anchor running back or even Zero running back and that's why receivers are getting pushed up and running backs are getting pushed down I get it that said I think Jacobs is a three down player on a team that's going to be very good I understand maybe it's not going to be ground and pound this year but I still think that're he's going to get a good amount of volume I think the skills are still there on a good team it means a lots of goal line opportunities he clearly going to be the goal guy AJ Dylan stinks at that so he's really good at the goal line he's AJ Dylan is not he's available there in the fourth round give me Josh Jacobs often all right there we have it Jeff going with Josh Jacobs as his most underrated player Jim where are you going what the Undervalued- DJ Moore heck is the fantasy Community doing pushing DJ Mo on to wide receiver 21 he was much higher earlier in the off season and then the Keenan Al the Romo dun smoke get blowing and all of a sudden MO is going down down down I don't think people realize just how good DJ Moore is he from a talent and production standpoint is literally one of the real life top 12 receivers in the league he can win short medium deep when the ball is placed in his hands he is a running back with the ball in his hands he can beat double teams 1364 yards last year and that was with Tyson bent playing about five games Moore has never had good quarterback play you go back to his days in car Carolina yet Moore has at least 1157 yards in four or five seasons and now he gets Caleb Williams and yeah I get it Keenan Allen averaged 10 targets a game the last few years but he was the only game in town most of the time for Justin Herbert great possession plus receiver but more the real deal will be playing fulltime doesn't miss games hasn't missed a game in three years so give me all the DJ Mo I can handle and the Bears agree with you just look what they did contractually they gave more the contract uh Keenan Allen's on a one-year deal basically um this is this is indicative of their plan all right I like it guys Josh Jacobs and DJ Moore I'll tell you I thought about going Jake Ferguson here I really did but when push comes to shove I'm going back to my guy Undervalued- Jaxon Smith-Njigba you know I like him Jackson Smith and jiga out in Seattle his ADP at the NC guys is actually up a full round in the last month this time in July he was going about pick 95 overall he's now up to 83.5 in the last week I don't care I still think there's value here jsn clearly a number three option in Seattle last season I think he moves up to that clear number two role this year behind DK meaf I'm also expecting Tyler Lockett to take a step back he turns 32 in a month guys I think this is the year the cliff comes for Tyler Lockett as we know Seattle new coaching staff new offensive coordinator and Ryan grub should be able to unlock jsn in new ways Grub's already been using a ton of pre-step motion a ton of play action so far in the preseason those are very good signs for an offense that really struggled in terms of pace last season Seahawks were dead last in offensive Pace they were dead last in number of plays run I think we're going to see a lot more 12 personnel with Jackson Smith and jig but this season should be a more fantasy friendly situation for him overall last year guys he finished as the wide receiver 48 in PPR but from week seven onward he was a wide receiver 35 and right now even with that jump in ADP he's going as a wide receiver 40 at the NFC so I think you're getting him at close to your floor and you'll see him go quite a bit later in casual leagues at CBS for example he's going on average at pick 112 overall I think that's a great value for a guy I see as a high-end number two in Seattle and we forget he was a first round pick last season he was the first wide receiver off the board in that 2023 draft Yeah that seventh percentile average depth of Target those days are gone wheels up on Smith and jiga all right guys before we get into our overrated players if you're enjoying this video please give it a like please subscribe to the Roa wire YouTube channel if you're not already we're going to keep rolling out ton of fantasy football videos lead leing up to week one we'll have a ton of content coming your way throughout the entire NFL season those likes those subscriptions they help us out a ton so Overvalued- Michael Pittman Jr thank you guys all right back to you Jeff give us one of your most overrated players any position in fantasy football this season okay so Michael pitman's skills are strong I like Michael Pitman as a player I question the volume and I just kind of question where he's going relative to other wide receivers uh I I wonder first of all a little bit about how much uh you know they added Donnie Mitchell how much he cuts into his volume Richardson's back for a full year and that's not necessarily a good thing because Richardson's going to pull the ball down and run a little bit more Jonathan Taylor's there for a full season this is a team that's going to still want to run the ball uh and I think you're you know we had those Gardner muu shootouts last year I don't think that's going to happen as often with the Colts this season so you look at some of the the receivers that are going after Pitman Mike Evans DJ Moore as Jim was talking about Devon Smith I take all those guys ahead of Pitman I you know last year you're probably getting him a p like wide receiver 2 2 23 24 now he's wide receiver 16 good player just going a little too early all Overvalued- Jayden Daniels right I'm with you on that Jim where are you going so I am going to say this I understand the value of the running quarterback and it cannot be understated however Jaden Daniels is going as the quarterback pen in most drafts and here are my concerns yes he has gamebreaking speed he's a phenomenal Runner he did weigh 210 at the combine seriously look at this guy 190 Maybe and he never tried to avoid a hit in college okay it's cool when boys are hitting you if he does that in the NFL there's going to be men hitting him he is not getting up for many of those hits I don't know how much he's able to run with his style unless he drastically changes and that offensive line in Washington it does not project to be good at all he's going to be under a lot of duress as a passer sure 40 touchdowns last year but this cat has been playing since 2019 and he never had more than 17 passing touchdowns in a season so was it a man among boys last year dominating them with a great Supporting Cast and a great system or did he really figure it out I'm skeptical all right Jim you're going with a quarterback I'm going with an Overvalued- CJ Stroud overrated quarterback as well CJ Stout of the Houston Texans and first of all I'm almost always a weight on QB guy so that automatically kind of keeps me away from CJ Stout and that upper tier of quarterbacks I mean I could see the upside with Josh Allen you know who is the QB W by a good two two and a half fantasy points per game last season you can see it with Jaylen Herz and Lamar even Patrick Mahomes coming on for a bounceback season but with CJ Stout I mean he's given you almost no rushing upside right that's the big difference between him and those other Elite quarterbacks especially Allen Herz uh and Jackson he's going to need to have an unreal passing season in order to beat that qb5 ADP now can he meet ADP can he beat the qb5 yeah absolutely but when I draft a quarterback guys I want to feel like I'm getting value I don't want to feel like I'm just taking the guy who could finish at that spot I want to feel like that there's a little bit of room for him to climb and you know best case for me with CJ St is he does meet that ADP I I don't really see him finishing as the qb2 or the qb3 I don't think that upside is there barring injury to some of those other names so to me like Stout should be going in a similar Zone to Jordan love who is a better fantasy player than CJ strad last season I think he should be going closer to Dak Prescott both of those guys were better per game than stoud in 2023 even you go all the way down to Jared gof who who goes what 6070 picks at after CJ strad he averaged fewer than one Fantasy Point per game less than CJ strout did last season and I I get it you know there there's room for progression here there should be some more touchdowns on the table for CJ strout he could approach you know 5,000 yards he's a guy who missed a couple of games last season but the other part of the equation here is opportunity cost I mean what are you leaving on the board at that point in the draft if you're taking CJ strout he's going in the 40s right now in CBS leagues guys and at that point I want to be hammering wide receivers I want to maybe get a second running back you could get one of the top TI ends in the draft at that point there's just too much skill position Talent on the board at that point in the draft for me to justify taking a quarterback who in my mind has almost no chance to finish as the the qb1 qb2 qb3 does your opinion change when you're playing like the NFC where six points for a passing touchdown yeah I I mean six points per a passing touchdown to me I mean that's that's where you can see the upside with Stout because 35 Plus touchdowns is in play here right I mean this is arguably the best receiving core in the NFL and you know I think Joe Mixon you know brings some pass catching to this offense as well that's an upgrade over Damen Pierce I think dton joltz is still going to be a factor in the red zone so you could sell me on it in the NFC but if you're in a four-point for passing touchdown league if you're in a league you know that has premiums for rushing quarterbacks I just I just don't see it with CJ Stout I'm on board with him as the qb5 it's more about where you have to make that pick this is ultimately still a Bobby slowick offense that has roots in the 49er system they're going to have 21 person out two running backs on the field and your Beck lead blocker they ran a lot last year despite not being able to run you guys mentioned earlier mixon's there Mixon keeps an offense on schedule they are going to run quite a bit so I am with you guys on the CJ Stout idea maybe the upside is not where we'd like it to be all right fellas let's talk some rookies we'll finish out here one rookie at any point in the draft that you found yourself targeting especially over these last couple of weeks we're starting to see these guys in preseason we're getting more of a sample Jeff back to you uh Who's the rookie that you've been targeting I've been targeting Brian Brian Thomas Thomas on the Jaguars I favor with my host uh always a smart play uh get more airtime that way I like not just how he looks but also I like where he's being deployed I like that he's on the field with the first team constantly uh two receiver sets and three receiver sets so it's not just 11 personnel um that's one thing I think that's huge for rookies is sometimes is like are they going to be on there uh when it's not just uh you know all obvious passing down I know he's still probably a big play guy first but and people are concerned about the volume he saw at LSU last year I just see it as just he happened to be with neighbors and that's no that's no insult to him to Thomas he's still a first round talent and he's playing like it already the reviews have been fantastic in Camp he's wide receiver of 46 in the last week in the NFC behind the likes of Jameson Williams DeAndre Hopkins Hollywood Brown I'll take Thomas over all three of those guys all right Jim what rookie are you targeting I'm looking for Blake corm of the Los Blake Corum Angeles Rams going about running back 40 off the board and the case I have to make starts away from corm first of all Kiren Williams missed seven games as a rookie missed five games last year and nobody talks about the broken hand he suffered in the Wild Card round which fortunately for him it wasn't a regular season game where he'd missed more time but why was Kiren Williams so successful last year because as a rookie when he was on the field he wasn't they tried to get him on the field he wasn't a thing well Shawn McVey as always a step ahead of the rest of the league when the league was getting better at defending Zone runs McVey went what we call the downhill Duo run scheme so perfectly fit for it the offensive line the three interior linemen weigh like a thousand pounds for the Rams they were designed to run that way Kiren Williams had almost 100 scrimmage yards per game right place right time well injury history Blake corm comes in 83rd pick in the draft that is not an inconsequential pick and korm from a skill standpoint projects to be significantly more talented than kyin Williams so if it's just the system that caused Williams to work korm as a better player should be able to step in and get significant work from the jump again the coaches are going to want to preserve Williams because of the injury history and Korum if he thrives in that role could really push Williams into more of an ancillary role and that wouldn't surprise me if that happened within a month of the beginning of the Season all right I like Ja'lynn Polk both of those guys uh you know I've talked a lot about kamani videll who I thought looked great in the preseason week two game this past weekend I think he eventually finds a role with the LA Chargers he's a guy you could basically get for free at the end of your draft even competitive leagues you might not even have to draft him in more casual formats but I don't want to talk about kamani viell for the sake of differentiation here guys yeah oh yeah Nick way get two for the price of one method here yeah the old the old diversion tactic I'm going with jayen pulk guys of the New England Patriots we are starting to hear a ton of positive buzz on Jaylen PK second round pick out of Washington you you think back to that Washington team last year and your mind goes right to Michael penck and Roman dun right I think Jaylen PK was overshadowed by Roman dun a top 10 pick in this year's draft but pulk himself put up well over 1150 yards nine touchdowns had a huge game against Texas in the National semifinal if you listen to these Whispers out of New England guys it really seems like there's a good chance that Jaylen pul could begin the year in a starting role I don't know if that makes him the true wide receiver one but I think he has a path to at least being the wide receiver two now obviously this is a team that lacks Talent at wide receiver really lacks Talent all over the place not fired up about this offense but I like what I've seen from Drake May in a limited S so far I don't think it's going to be too long until we see him as a starting quarterback and you know part of the the General malays around this New England offense means you're getting a discount on just about every Patriots player I mean we're looking at an ADP right now 164 overall for Jaylen pul that makes him the wide receiver 68 again this is a guy like fidal that you're basically getting him for free I like his upside at that point in the draft more than just about any wide receiver who's available in that zone even in a shaky offense if he can emerge as that wide receiver two or even the wide receiver one at some point later in the season I think there's going to be some value there in Jay and poke yeah the draft cost like you said Nick makes it perfect to select him there there's no risk at all the concern is the offensive line in the training camp appears to be a train wreck and if that's the case it's a problem but like you said there's no risk and if you're the number one receiver in an offense going that late there has to be volume yes the number one receiver in any offense even the New England Patriots offense we should remind you does have some fantasy value