Donald Trump JUST Needs TWO States To Win The 2024 Presidential Election

in today's video I'll be discussing how former president Donald Trump could retake the presidency with just two states and why those two states right now look particularly favorable for the former president first off we look at the state of Georgia Georgia has historically been a historically very red state in favor of the Republican party if you look at the state of Georgia in 2022 you'll see that Republicans won almost all the Statewide races in the governor's race Brian Kemp the enced Republican defeated Stacy Abrams a very well-funded Democrat by 7 and a half points if you look at all these down ballot races here lieutenant governor attorney general agricultureal commissioner insurance commissioner Labor Commissioner school superintendent Secretary of State you can see that all of these Republicans won reelection by at least 5% if not more some of these candidates were not even incumbent and they were able to win by really solid margins additionally even incy Democrat Rafael waro who was facing off arguably against a pretty weak candidate who had not resided in a state for a pretty long time Hershel Walker still ended up being forced into a runoff after leading by less than 1% in the Statewide numbers having said that how does former president Donald Trump end up retaking the state of Georgia from Joe Biden's column well there are two things he could do the first thing is to run up huge margins in the rural areas and boost turnout now you might say that these rural areas are very sparely populated and that making some improvements won't really do the job however you have to look at this collectively firstly you look at these rural areas these are very very favorable areas for Donald Trump for example take Le Dade County that was roughly a what 5 to1 margin more than that in favor of the former president Additionally you have to look at the fact that these counties are essentially very small itself but are pretty large collectively for instance again if you look at little Dade County that's only about a about 7,300 votes total that came out of this County back in 2020 however this Ned a pretty substantial margin of about 4,800 votes for Donald Trump take another County for example Walker County right slightly bigger population that needed 17,400 votes for former president Trump and when you look at all these counties together you'll see that these areas boost huge number for Trump and he's if he's able to improve by 1% in every County or boost turnout by 1% in every one of these counties guess what he ends up winning the state by roughly a0 2% margin or so although that may seem very small and insignificant that type of boost and also the fact that again these may not seem like a lot of votes when you look at them collectively if Trump is able to really appeal to some of these rural voters that could really help him win the state the second and more obvious pathway lies in the Atlanta suburbs now as we all know the Atlanta suburbs are a relatively moderate part of the state that has heavily trended towards the Democratic party in recent decades and there's no point to dispute that if you look at the 2020 numbers some of these counties shifted heavily towards Joe Biden compared to Hillary Clinton take Gwynette County for instance Hillary Clinton only won this County over Donald Trump by a margin of 6% however Joe Biden tripled that Marg to about 18% back in 2020 however someone like K Harris may not have the strength that someone like K uh someone like however someone like K Harris may not have the Coalition that joine had in some of the Suburban counties in 2020 for instance if you look at the same county I just mentioned a few seconds ago gwet County again this is a very populated area of the state roughly about 1 in 12 voters in the entire State live in one this one County which means that the county makes up more than 8% of the population here what we see is that there's a lot of Voters who are more willing to vote for Biden because he was classified and considered as more of a moderate than someone like KLA Harris although Harris has been trying to moderate her positions on many of the issues that may not appeal to many of these college educated white voters which was a key demographic group in ensuring Joe bid's Victory back in 2020 so as you can see definitely Ely there's no guarantee that KLA Harris is able to win all those voters that Joe Biden flipped from the Donald Trump column or from the abating vote column back in 2016 and considering how small Joe B's victory was over Donald Trump in the state of Georgia back in 2012 it's unsurprising that even a small movement or maybe a slight boost in numbers in some of these more Suburban counties could significantly benefit Donald Trump and help him win the state as right now I also believe that the state of Georgia will go to the Republican Party although there are some figures suggesting that K Harris for example in the polling suggesting that Harris is favored the general political consensus is that Georgia is a state that has been narly narrowly favoring Donald Trump since the beginning of this campaign season back when Joe Biden was the candidate and throughout now so at this point in time I'm going to give the city of Georgia to Donald Trump and that's the first of two states that Trump needs to win in order to clinch the presidency now as you can see Donald Trump is at 251 Electoral College votes assuming he wins all the states that he won back in 2020 which at this point again it can't be taken for granted from the Trump campaign but it's something that's incredibly likely the second state is a state that we've all been talking about the state of Pennsylvania now Pennsylvania is very unique because it's a state that has the largest largest electoral vote presence out of all the of the competitive states in the 20 24 presidential election now if you look at polling right now in Pennsylvania it may seem like that someone like you know K Harris may actually be favored here as you can see Harris is up by 7% however there are two things to take a note of the first thing was that Harris's lead was a bit larger back in August and her numbers have actually slipped a little bit despite the fact that the Democratic National Convention just finished about a week ago that her number should be in a relatively a pretty solid honeymoon period additionally even her numbers actually stay at the same roughly about a 1% lead give or take for k Harris industry of Pennsylvania that's still not very good news for the former vice president for one thing if you look at 2020 Joan consistently held roughly a 3 to 7% lead in the state of Pennsylvania throughout the election cycle starting from late May late April all the way up to November the 3D on Election Day the despite this he only won the actual state by 1.2% you can say that polling roughly underestimated Donald Trump by 3.5 points now I'm not trying to say that every single election is the same obviously every election is somewhat different however there is an expectation here that someone like Donald Trump who has historically been underestimated will probably be again underestimated in 20124 and given how narrow the lead is for k Harris this is certainly not that good of a piece of news for Harris that she's only leading by 7% additionally if you look at Pennsylvania there's a lot of demographics that are quite favorable for Donald Trump firstly the state has a pretty substantial rural presence of course the urban area around Philadelphia as well as sub some of the more Suburban counties May favor Democrats however the state has a surprisingly pretty substantial number of Rural counties and in fact some of these rural counties are pretty populated if you just look through some of these loming County that's around 60,000 vote votes in 2020 West Morland that's like 200,000 votes you know Huntington that's 22,000 votes blur County that's 63,000 votes and although these are again seemingly insignificant counties in terms of the net vote totals these produce significant numbers for Donald Trump now there's a couple of things that Donald Trump could end up doing in order for him to actually win the state the first thing is something that's quite unexpected Ed is to improve in Philadelphia that's right the big blue Center of Philadelphia and there's a couple of data points that suggest that he may be able to do that in 2020 for instance despite the fact that Joe Biden overperformed down overperformed Hillary Clinton by roughly 2% Statewide in the state of Pennsylvania Philadelphia County actually shifted 3.5% towards Donald Trump which was something that most news commentators didn't see coming and it was something that was relatively under overlooked because of the fact that Joe Biden ultimately won the state however this is a significant Trend if you look at voter registration Democrats have dropped pretty substantially in Philadelphia and Donald Trump has significantly risen and if the trend continues you could probably see Donald Trump about overperform his 2020 numbers there by getting around three to five points that in of itself will net Donald Trump at least 20,000 votes in this one County alone the second pathway for Donald Trump to win here is probably to run up the numbers in the rural areas for instance Donald Trump was attempted to be assassinated in Butler County Pennsylvania which is roughly 50 mil north of Philadelphia and those type of numbers are really going to end up driving up his numbers in some of the rural areas sure you might say assassination attempt is not something that's directly attributed to commo Harris but again voters feel sympathetic for the candidate that was targeted and in this case you're going to see a lot of these rle numbers just Skyrocket for Donald Trump because again he was almost assassinated in Pennsylvania especially in some of these rural counties as well as the fact that turnout is essentially higher than ever in some of these regions and if Trump is able to boost turnout just slightly in some of these counties he doesn't even have to improve in the margins he should be able to win the state of Pennsylvania combining with the fact of Philadelphia the third thing that really goes in favor of Donald Trump is some of these sub uh Suburban counties now someone like K Harris will indisputably do pretty well in the Suburban areas around Philadelphia for example Delaware County Chester County and Montgomery County because those are the areas where Democrats are improving however the white workingclass areas Buck County relatively less affluent compared to some of the other Suburban counties as well as Allentown right Northampton Monroe lacana County luzar County right these are historically very Democratic areas even in a county like lern for instance this was a county that voted for Obama 2008 lacana County was a county that voted for Obama by 25% in 2012 an election that had a similar popular vote as 2020 you can see how much Democrats have regressed in some of those regions for example again laana County if you look at some of the trends of course Joe Biden did better than Hillary Clinton however he still underperformed Obama in that county by 18% and with someone like K Harris someone who's more out of touch with some of these workingclass voters as many electorates would perceive it than someone like Joe Biden that could certainly hamper her numbers in some of these counties and although again lacabana County not very significant in of itself there's a lot of laana counties in the state Monroe County Northampton County Lehigh County even Bucks County here certain extent as well as Erie County these are all areas where I would expect someone like Donald Trump to improve in Joe Biden was someone who did pretty well with some of these white workingclass voters compared to some of the other Democrats and their performances there and I do believe that someone like Donald Trump against someone like K Harris will probably improve in some of these regions and end up winning the city of Pennsylvania I was certainly say right now Donald Trump is favor to win Pennsylvania and if he wins Pennsylvania and Georgia he wins the presidential election in summary by Donald Trump holding all the states he won in the 2020 election and flipping the states of Georgia and Pennsylvania to states that were decided by combined total of roughly 90,000 votes in 2020 Trump could easily end up flipping off the presidency this is a very easy yet convenient path for Donald Trump and it Gars him exactly 200 and 70 Electoral College votes now this is not the ceiling for Trump he could win all these tossup states and maybe even at a state like Virginia Minnesota New Hampshire or even Maine into the column of a republican Victory however this is a pretty simple path for Trump and this is why I believe that Trump is favored he can simply win these two states two states that were very competitive in 2020 20 and 2022 and he could just win the election like that he doesn't even need to go to Wisconsin Michigan Arizona or Nevada states that he has really good chances in and just has to stick to two states Pennsylvania and Georgia where he is indeed spending a lot of his funds in and indeed seem to suggest that these states are probably going to go for Donald Trump guys thank you for watching today's video be sure to like And subscribe to my YouTube channel if you haven't consider joining my memberships it's for as little as $1.99 per month and you get a lot of perks obviously don't feel pressured to do that if you don't have the money or simply don't want to that's perfectly fine thank you for watching have a nice day goodbye