Awaiting Nvidia | Bloomberg Surveillance | August 28, 2024

this is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keane and Pa are these stocks under owned by institutional Wall Street a lot of these companies talking about generative AI with Lisa Mato on markets investors just worried about the ongoing sales slump in China and Michael bar with news a ship traveling through the southern Red Sea has been attacked the best in economics Finance investment and international relations this is Bloomberg's surveillance on Bloomberg Radio good morning everyone Tom Keane Paul Sweeney Michael bar John Tucker in fisa Matel how did that happen I don't know John it's a bad trade you know it's like suspect to say should I leave the room are you with us all week John I mean are you here yes at least we'll be back I guess Tuesday yeah and then you're off for the next month that's good okay John Tucker with us here to give a perspective really interesting screen and if you look at the blo Professional Service folks equities bonds currencies Commodities forget about Nvidia Paul the bond market is speaking volumes I got a 385 y twoyear way under 4% a 381 10year I mean I'm not talking 30-year Bond 3.99% there but I'm starting to frame it exactly we got that 30-year at 4.1% on that yield curve when you look at the twos and tens is almost almost uninverted here and I'm not sure what that means level four exactly S I think that's important so we'll keep an eye on that but we got Futures kind of mixed here today Tom and everybody's again from the stock market perspective focused on Nidia focused on Invidia we'll talk about it we'll give you some value ad there from the Bloomberg intelligence people they've done a great job man deep was lights out where were you yesterday I was uh out there at the national tennis center out in Queens you in what 10,000 40,000 people 50,000 people packed to the gills but I will tell you they do a great job getting you go early in the tournament there's so many different matches on all the outer courts that a lot of all deductible doing a front service for Carol master and Tim stovic they'll be out there Thursday and Friday 3 pm across Bloomberg looking forward to it it's a it's a real we'll give us some callor on it through the day it's either that or talk about the Detroit Tigers which you know we can only do so much of we are on YouTube um from our wonderful studios here you subscribe to Bloomberg podcast out of YouTube and had to blow up out meeting on it you were out having fun for you know they come in they they walk in the room and they got their handlers there's like 12 people in the room talking to me everybody's got you know binders like Mitt Romney said binders full of this and and that and the answer is we are humbled by the YouTube sign up the uh subscriptions to Bloomberg podcast out on YouTube and also the international feel of it we never expected that today we say good morning good evening I should say Melbourne Australia good evening in Melbourne Australia listening to Paul Sweeney and uh yours uh truly from the interactive Brooker Studios of Bloomberg business flash John Tu all right Futures little changed as the major averages hover around records yeah the Dow Jones Industrial Average coming off another record close yesterday and most active do I even have to say it shares of Nvidia 3/10 of a percent higher right now nordstom shares uh up to close to 8% pre-market improving their comparable sales forecast for the year of foot Locker out with earnings this morning big beat for comparable second quarter sales Bitcoin posting its biggest drop since early August crypto link stocks they're falling as a result Down Jones Industrial Average the Futures right now nine points lower S&P e mini Futures unchanged and the NASDAQ futures right now unchanged as look at crude oil Brent crude down 1.8% 7811 NX crude is at 7398 that's down about 2% a 2-year yield 385 the 10e right now 381 we check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio I'm John Tucker that's your Bloomberg business flash Paul and Tom John Tucker thanks so much we start strong Marilyn Watson is at Black Rock yep she got a fancy title she demanded this title when she came over from JP Morgan Global fundamental fixed income strategy here's what you need to know tour duty at her bank of England and also a parchment from the University of Cambridge Marilyn been dying to talk to you about what I believe is a reset after the Powell speech When I Look at Full Faith and Credit yields today it just looks like a massive dare I say permanent reset to lower yields do you buy that idea well I certainly um agree that we have seen a big reset in terms of the pricing um obviously for uh you know treasuries but um for fixed income as well when you look at the roller coaster that uh you know fixed income yields have been on and prices have been on this year from pricing at the beginning of the year to then a lot of cuts then at one point even pricing a further hike and now I do think um you know finally um after Powell's speech at Jackson Hall then the the scene is definitely you know set for the FED to start cutting rates in September I think when you look at uh yields when you look at also all in rates you know I do still think in this environment while we do think obviously the FED will cut in September and they will continue to cut perhaps for the next few meetings um and you know Powell made it very clear he said that the direction of travel is uh that you know rates will be going down when you look at the all-in yields um that you can also get in credit and elsewhere then they're still very very attractive I think particularly when you look at an economy that is still pretty robust when you look at obviously the labor market is softening and the FED has sort of pivoted now from focusing on prices to focusing on on the labor market um and you know the overall growth of the economy it is softening but the US economy is still at this point in time still doing pretty well so I think we have seen a big shift we've seen a shift towards uh seeing lower rates uh you know commencing next month but I do do still think that now we can see some continue to see very attractive yields in fixed income Marilyn what do you expect from our European friends the ECB and the bank of England have already begun cutting rates and will they take a little bit more confidence to continue that Trend given that we've heard fed chairman J pal say that the US fed is ready to cut start cutting rates yeah that's right so they both already began to to cut rates um obviously the bankers are going to cut them at the beginning of this month uh the ECB a little bit before that uh and we think that they're going to continue to cut rates but probably in a little bit more of a gradual fashion probably about once a quarter so we do think in September that the ECB will cut rates again obviously at the end of this week we do get the flash um hicp the inflation data coming out of the Euro Zone we think it's going to keep them on track to uh cut rates again um in September uh in terms of the bank of England um we heard from Governor Andrew Bailey also at Jackson Hall and he was also very clear that you know the direction of travel uh is that rates will probably go lower but again he's in no hurry and we do think that will probably also around once a quarter so we expect that the bank of England may you know cut rates again in November I think when you look at the starting point as you say both the ECB and the bank of England already started their uh you know easing cycle the FED I think has a little bit of cat ship to do it's a little obviously a bit later than them um and so we do think the FED may be a little bit more agress aggressive in terms of the next few Cuts whereas the bank of England the ECB will be more gradual and also their economies are in a different place uh to to to the us as well all right Marilyn so you're black rock you guys are everywhere given that backdrop of global rate declines where do you guys see value these days yeah so we're in when you look at uh government bonds first of all then we still uh like uh some Spanish duration we're also long UK duration a bit a little bit in the US uh and then we're short duration in Japan because you know we do think that um you know the bank of Japan is actually going to continue to hike rates this year but we do like um you know at the front end of the curve we do like uh attractive names in investment grade credit uh in Europe uh in the Euro zone for example we still think you can find some very attractive all-in yields and some very attractive valuations particularly when you then uh hedge that back into the dollar we think that's pretty attractive in many cases we continue to like uh some um securitized assets some very liquid very cash generative names as well where we think you know you get decent yield decent Allin carry but you also do have I think a lot of flexibility and where we are now we want to make sure that we really stand on a risk adjusted level right we also do like areas of emerging markets for example we're long Mexico still too Marilyn we got to be quick here but this is too important and I just put out on Twitter my Marilyn Watson chart of the day I'm going to discuss it Marilyn this is an adult chart it's Global Wall Street Talk folks stay with me Marilyn I went back to Paul vuler and I looked at the Bloomberg corporate total return series not full faith and credit and I took the regression from 1990 out to the present day the bond tobacco that you and black rock have lived was a three standard deviation move really elegant the fact is with a Powell speech I'm back to a negative -2 standard deviations can you envision price up yield down where we could get back to 20 and 30-year log trend on the price of bands so I think when you look at the the corporate Market I mean we certainly could expect to see um yields come a little bit down from here um I I certainly think that's possible I think also when you look at the overall economy when you look at what is being priced in in terms of the sheer number of cuts first of all by the fed the Market's actually pricing in a lot of pretty negative news that we don't necessarily see coming through next year we do think the Market will continue to soften we do think activity will continue to soften but we don't see a strong Catalyst for certainly for any sort of like you know sharp recession or anything like that right so when you look at the overall backdrop in terms of corporates when you look at particularly in the US as well we do continue to see a pretty strong backdrop in terms of economic activity one that is slowing but again we do think you know Ys will come down we do think that prices however will remain pretty pretty attractive there's a clinic Watson thank you so much greatly appreciate it with black rock I'm going to put that chart out with explanation on Twitter and on LinkedIn that's what we do at Bloomberg at surveillance with our news in New York City Michael bar thank you very much Tom Paul John the US Special councel investigating Donald Trump for election interference is pressing ahead with his case Bloomberg's Nancy lions with the latest special Council Jack Smith is not giving up on his prosecution of Donald Trump even though he faced a setback this summer before The Supreme Court he's filed an updated indictment following the Court's ruling that Trump was at least partially immune from prosecution related to his official acts as president the new indictment removes allegations related to Trump's Communications with government officials at the department of justice during his presidency but it keeps intact the same four charges against Trump which include accusations of conspiring to overturn election results in Washington Nancy Lions Bloomberg Radio vice president Harris in Minnesota Governor Tim Walls will embark on a campaign bus tour of Savannah Georgia today meanwhile Harris and walls have agreed to do their first interview since the vice president became a candidate he will be on CNN tomorrow night Republican vice presidential candidate in Ohio Senator JD Vance was out on the campaign trail yesterday in Michigan at a rally in Big Rapids Vance outlined a top priority for him and his boss Donald Trump Tom Harris wants to open the border on day one Donald Trump is going to close the southern border and his message to every illegal immigrant is pack your bags cuz you're going home as a heat wave stretched into a second day this week residents in more than a half a dozen states are looking for ways to beat the heat of in hot temperatures approaching triple digits the national weather service has issued excessive heat warnings and advisories and large patches of Illinois Iowa Missouri Wisconsin Michigan Indiana Ohio and Pennsylvania Global News 24 hours a day whenever you want it Bloomberg News now I'm Michael bar and this is Bloomberg Tom Paul John what was the best part of the US Open Paul oh you missed Damen sassau in Michael bar rotisserie League NFL you are so lucky I it was they actually thought people cared yeah exactly you know it it was extraord a lot of people do though Tom a lot of people are into that kind of stuff Michael Bard 22s Wild Card Baltimore Orioles Cleveland Guardians Minnesota Twins Red Sox and then the Detroit Tigers yeah we're on a in the running on a roll yes we are we are and you have scoo ball yeah yeah we are over the 500 Mark yes and only one team is really out of play Chicago Whit for the first time since Nixon was President thank you for that review Michael bar Futures flat this morning Lots going on today again at low 6:00 hour tonight on Nvidia this is Bloomberg good morning he markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash and I'm John Tucker in the Bloomberg Newsom with this Bloomberg business flash more retail earnings this morning uh let's go right to Cole's big takeaway so far Cole's cutting its net sales forecast for the full year uh but the company also says it's committed to returning Capital to shareholders through the dividend and further strengthening the balance sheet as a result of that those shares up over 3% the pre-market also results from Foot Locker this morning sales surp passing analyst expectations snapping five consecutive quarters of negative comparable St sales still management then tweaked lower of the gross margin range so shares there down over 8% uh us mortgage rates Falling Again to the lowest level since April of 2023 the contact rate on a 30e fixed easing for a fourth we to 6.44% that is the longest stretch of declines this year right now we have uh Dow Emi Futures unchanged S&P futures also unchanged the NASDAQ futures are down just one point and we check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio I'm John Tucker at your Bloomberg business flash PA and Tom uh thank you John Tucker this is a real important conversation we've had a huge response for Audrey child Freedman not only for the reality she would not swim in the river is her France did a spectacular Olympics but her really Hardball linking and foreign exchange strategy into our economics and into our political economics Audrey child Freeman from Queen Victoria Street in London Audrey I got an email when somebody heard you were on did your parents take off all the month of August in France did you like really do that when you were a kid not not really but I have to I have to say that August to be seem tends to be quite quite light in terms of work not just in France in most of Europe I would say we would say we are so jealous of that Audrey speaking of Europe the euro is a a point here we've had a number of guests with certitude looking for Euro weakness not so much what's your call on Euro but frame out how Euro gets from 112 dare I say 15 to a weaker 105 how does that happen oh well for that to happen I kind of feel that it would have to be dollar strength driven so you'd have to kind of question the whole narrative that we've had in place in the past few weeks where the uh US economy is slowing down uh this inflation is well in place and the FED is telling us that they cutting rates uh so you know I I think you know because Euro upside was very much driven by by the FED narrative I also kind of feel that Euro downside euro dollar downside would would have to be driven by the same narrative uh uh reversing and I just can't see that happening for now now I I also acknowledge the fact that you know the the domestic news flow in Europe hasn't really been that great at all uh in the past few weeks but it hasn't been a driver so it hasn't really been influencing where euro dollar is trading uh and I think you know from a Euro perspective uh we actually expect some slight improvements in the macro news flow in the second half of the year uh and and you know that's probably good enough for as long as the US narrative holds uh for our euro dollar view to be validated and for us to get into this range we've been uh waiting all year 112 to 115 Audrey how about the the Japanese Yen here I'm looking at it uh sitting here you know 144 spot 39 am am I in a range right now with this Yen or is there still maybe some more strength here for this Yen I think there is more strength to come but I kind of think and and we you know we wrote about that in a note on the terminal that uh I think the next move is going to be a slide as opposed to a slump in a way that you know the what took us from 160 to 144 um is the monetary policy uh dynamic divergencies between the fed and the boj and we've talked about it and it's arguably in the price now uh but it's still valid it's something that I think will stay with us uh into year year end and into early next year but positioning you know the big positioning unwind has arguably taken place already um so that's why I can of feel that you know we we won't see that exacerbated price action that we've seen in the summer in the in the past few weeks BR suers out in the financial times looking at intervention in large economies have we proven with Bank of Japan intervention that unilateral intervention is efficacious or are you going to go all dornbush on me and say you can't do it unless everybody's in the same pool well that's a very good point point a very good question you can't do it unless everybody is on the same side I.E if you get other central banks on on your side and or if there is already a move in in your direction in the market and that's kind of what we saw with dollar Yen uh because dollar Yen you know earlier in the summer was kind of um you know diverging from from the yield differential between uh the dollar and the BJ so the yield different was already moving lower and for quite a few weeks dollar Yen was kind of uh sticky not going anywhere and then we had the catch up and the boj you know kind of intervene exactly at the right time if you look at the timing uh you know in in the move that we we saw in the following weeks yeah but we're going to go to Wi thin here next folks and we're going to focus the dror th on the Pacific room China and all but Audrey I mean the fact is I'm observing ing inflation in Japan so the math doesn't work for me do you find the the theory of Japanese monetary system just completely flawed uh I I don't think so I I kind of feel that uh the you know it was a very difficult uh predicament and big challenge for the boj to come out uh of the ultral loose monetary policy environment that we've had for decades without creating a meltdown you know in the potentially a meltdown in the bond market that could have had impact on on the global financial markets so from that perspective I I think they've been you know quite moderate and well very moderate and you could you could argue behind the curve uh but it has been it hasn't really created much uh damage in terms of you know Financial Market stability and that's very important Audrey thank you so much Audrey CH Freeman with us publishing uh look for it on the terminal at Bloomberg intelligence can't say enough about uh the work uh from London uh this morning Paul and I are both agree that we we need to do Nvidia differently today we're really going to try to do that Paul one of the scope and scales that I use is where was a company before the pandemic and where are they now right Nvidia before the pandemic they had 11 $2 billion of Revenue yep they now have 60 there's no other company in our universe like that no no and uh and the earnings have kept kept right up with that Revenue growth Tom so here's a company that's you know just extraordinary in terms of growth but and in terms of the valuation I mean this is a company that looks like it's earning its way into its multiple you know on trailing 12-month basis you know a 75 PE one year forward 47 2 years forward you know 30 I mean there's compy earning its way into its multiple the stocks up 160% year to date with a $3.2 trillion Market I was talking to our financial analyst John Tucker today about this do do you can you use a traditional analysis on Nvidia at Bloomberg intelligence can you have a seven-year terminal value I'm not sure I go seven years my models we'd always go five and then uh kind of discount it back here but I mean again you look at the revenue growth and the earnings growth um Tom this is not you know a 1999 kind of tech company this is as we've seen over the last you know 5 10 years the technology companies that are leading this market today are profitable you know really at the GTO at the gross margin level ebit do and free cash flow positive uh these are real companies with Revenue growth and real profit Market they're heavily indebted half of a percent exactly folks the return on invested capital good morning Michael mobison the return on investment cap invested capital from Bloomberg this is off the acclaimed wac screen I steal from it all the time 73% that's not bad that's not bad that's like Capital allocation done right yeah I could do that Edward Ludo tonight he's in makeup right now 11 hours from now with Jensen of Nvidia Ed llo special broadcast tonight 6:00 hour from New York City stay with us Bloomberg surveillance he he he markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash and I'm John Tucker in the Bloomberg Newsroom this Bloomberg business flash futur is now pretty much on hold so let's power through some of the earnings we got this morning Foot Locker shares sliding pre-market uh tweaking lower their gross margin range on the positive side the comp sales with the second quarter that did beat uh Kohl's out with earnings this morning shares up 3.6% pre-market Kohl's cutting it's net sales forecast for the full year but earnings did beat estimates a chewy stock Rising pre-market that's up 2.2% the online retailer pet food and uh also uh pet food products posting better than expected earnings for its fiscal second quarter right now the Dow futures after yesterday's another record close for the Dow yesterday right now the Futures are up 12 points S&P many Futures down a point the NASDAQ futures 11 points lower we check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio I'm John Tucker at your Bloomberg business flash Paul and Tom John Tucker thanks so much we're on YouTube subscribe to Bloomberg podcast out an apple carplay had a meeting yesterday with like 42 people telling me all these different ways yep Paul people listen to us y I'm like back it's Bloomberg 1130 in Boston that's it that's it and Nathan's down south somewhere that's it that's it it's not it's amazing streaming satellite I don't know the summation of all of you listening uh is great we're improving On That September 3rd we are thrilled to have a massive signal from Mount Kaden oh yeah to Black Island 929 FM Boston Bloomberg 929 FM Boston look for that September 3ish and you know I mean people go how do I do it they were asking me I had to sign autographs and all that yesterday said it's all because of John Tucker because John Tucker taught me everything he knows you know it was great and with wind thin it's the same way Audrey child Freeman was in tears yep in London she goes wind's on after me exactly we're going from Audrey CH Freeman to Wi thin that's very cool she was a he was a great mentor to Audrey uh years ago Dr thin thank you so much for joining from Brown Brothers Herman uh when I don't want to Redux like what's the Euro call at Brown Brothers Herman I want to take your uh just High ownership of Pacific Rim Dynamics what does a China slowdown mean for Burma what does it mean for Singapore what does it mean for Vietnam and up to Japan well first of all uh Tom Paul thanks for having me it's always a pleasure and Audrey is a tough back to follow uh I I miss working with her she's she a pleasure to work with and uh you guys locked out in landing her um so to me the China story is just bubbling in the background and we have some headlines here and there but we look through all the no the fact of the matter is they they really haven't done much to address the the underlying problem which is a huge debt overhang debt GDP is almost 300% you know they they've tweaked policy they're pushing on the string right now and trying to support the housing market but to me it's a a net negative in a sense um for a lot of the export oriented countries such as Singapore Taiwan um but at the same time it's a a slowing China and sort of a rotation out of China is a net benefit for some of its Rivals such as India Vietnam uh and other countries that are that are sort of picking up the the near Shoring the friend Shoring so it's it's a mixed bag but I think in general we the world has to come to grip for the fact that China is growing two 3% you know at most I think and it's going to continue to struggle can you be long Pacific Rim can you be long as a talking point Vietnam absolutely forance you mentioned Vietnam it's it's it's you know one of the beneficiaries of of the of the uh French Shoring India is another one of them but even the countries such as Korea Taiwan on Singapore look they have great fundamentals they still have a solid uh um manufacturing base you they're source of a lot of the the world's chips so there is still great stories there it's just that much of the growth in EM over the last 10 20 years is really was really driven by China growing 10% and that's sort of turbocharged it um but again we're sort of in a new normal but that doesn't mean these countries can't um you know can't continue to prosper you know again fundamental fundamentally um story in in the Pacific R remains very strong uh ex China but it's again it's it's it's a new normal so so when I mean I guess most of our audience just knows as you mentioned earlier that much of the growth coming out of Asia has been China how about the next 5 to 10 years I can't imagine that they're going to be comfortable with low single digigit kind of growth in your economy is there any way they can turbocharge that or is there their issues just too fundamental no no I I think um you know many of the countries in that region have been very much export driven right they the China was growing the US was growing everyone's consuming um but we know we're seeing sort of cooling of global growth you know post great financial crisis and now post pandemic I would say many of these countries are going to try and and sort of rotate out of being so export oriented and trying to be B more domestically oriented um so to encourage domestic consumption domestic Prosperity China is trying um to mix mix bag you know given this again this huge dead overhang I think other countries will start to look a little bit more um Inward and and you know a sense they have to you know again we're out of this old world where where China was growing 10% and they just chug uh and Export growth and Export their way to prosperity it's again it's just a new normal uh I think they can continue to prosper but we have to see this rotation away from export orientation you know totally of course they'll still export but more towards Dom consumption how consistent do you believe the bank of Japan will be in in kind of trying to raise rates in that country support the currency how consistent can they be do you believe yeah so I mean I know you spent I cut the tail end of of your conversation with Audrey I know spend a little time on it so I won't sort of regurgitate but I do agree that with Audy that you know they so far they've they've been able to prevent a a huge Major Market mown yeah we had that scare a couple weeks ago but here we are back at the high with equities currency are stabilizing so they're managing I think the bone I would have to pick with the bank of Japan is they actually admitted hey you know we're on hold because of the market and you know i' some I've seen some editorials on your page as well I think Mr laran and others is that you know that you the central banks you know can't always be led by the market the the the it's sort of the tail it's wagy dog right the central banks Bank Japan the FED they have to lead the markets uh and so far for instance if you look at the US the FED has done a fantastic job the Market's been wrong about the easing cycle I know I've lost count I I use up all my fingers um but you know I think that's the story that that the the central banks have to to be the one that set the theme and so I was a little disappointed the bank F sort of blinked but they will continue to be very very cautious U remember the last two times they've hiked they've gone into recession so I don't blame them for being cautious but I I'm a little you know sort of uh I think they should have stood A Little Bit Stronger when when there are tentative meetings an orchestrated B between the United States of America and China involving Jake Sullivan this has been in the news in the last couple days uh folks in one of the themes there obviously Taiwan is front and center but one of the themes is the South China Sea I think maybe more than anyone we talk to Dr thin you've lived it how do we how do we have confidence in investment in the Pacific Rim when we've got ships bumping into each other uh bumping into each other in the South China Sea yeah Tom that that to me is like one of the sort of ageold dilemmas as as any kind of Market strategist how do you really position for some of these um Black Swan events you know tail risk events uh on on the political sphere it's difficult I I would sort of say point out the fact that we are basically running two Ground Wars uh in Europe and Middle East with risk of maybe three and four and yet the markets are sort of overlooking it so yeah I think political noise it's it's always there it's it's I don't mean to diminish it Tom I mean it's it's a serious risk but you know if you're an investor if you're a multinational portfolio manager you sort of have to look through it and and and really just kind of cross your fingers hope for the best so to me China is provoking there's no doubt about it we've had some as you point up chips bumping in the Philippines they had an unprecedented um uh incursion into Japan airspace I think it's the first time uh uh it's been confirmed uh I think the provoking what I worry about and I always worry is something accidental happened you know something I think China's looking to to really cause any kind of major configuration in the area they are provoking but what if something accidentally happens where a plane goes down or something that's what I worry about uh and so to me I wish everyone would sort dial back but I think we're unfortunately we're far from that but um winon thank you so much greatly appreciate it as well while you were talking Paul with Brown Brothers Herman I was looking at like Vietnam you know like an Eric Bel chunis thing like there's the hoochi men's stock index I know nothing about it but then of course there's an ETF oh boy like like I think I can say with one phone call or one key tap on your laptop you can own Vietnam Equity they haven't done that well they've sort of they sort of look like an airline stock you know they're back to the vicinity of pandemic lows but it's interesting what winin was talking about I mean more other countries in Pacific stepping up what I have noticed just as a consumer when you look at the tag on anything you buy for example my you $29 baseball cap I got from the US Open yesterday not made in China anymore made in maau for example made in Indonesia made in Vietnam I'm noticing more and more of that was your honey juuce made in America or was it made in maau oh it was made right there in Queen describe describe Coast to Coast what a honey juice is uh like strawberry lemonade vodka lots of ice and then three honeydew little balls like tennis balls on top on a toothpick to die for it's the signature drink in fact there was this $23 the total revenue for the sale of the honey dece covers the winning prize money for the men and women single that's how much say that again the total revenue from selling all these honey Deuces over the course of the two-e tournament is more than enough to pay for the winning winning of the men single and the women single combined combined unbelievable that's a lot of Honey Deuces it's called money Mak and then you keep the cup it's a commemorative cup Tom it's got the list of all the winners of the US men and women and so in our household we have many years of these oh do we we have them lined up yes we do Carol Masters had the famous hat trick where she had three of them in one broadcast exactly Master stenc out at the US Open starting at tomorrow red and green on the screen with our news in New York City Michael bar I'm making one tonight former president Donald Trump is facing a new Federal indictment related to allegations he tried to illegally interfere with the last election the revised charging document comes in light of the recent US Supreme Court decision granting president's immunity for official acts Donald Trump's running mate Senator JD van spoke in Nashville yesterday about the new Federal indictment it looks like Jack Smith doing more what he does which is filing these absurd lawsuits in an effort to influence the election meanwhile vice president Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walls will embark on a campaign bus tour of Georgia today Harris and walls will then give their first interviews since the vice president became a candidate they agreed to appear on CNN tomorrow night Ukrainian president vomir zalinski will present a plan to force Russia to hold its invasion of his country to President Joe Biden just weeks before the US holds its November elections zalinsky says he wants to discuss the blueprint with Biden during his trip to the United Nations General enal assembly meeting in New York in September personal injury attorney Tom gerardi who gained notoriety when his wife Erica appeared on the Real Housewives of Beverly Hills has been found guilty of embezzling $15 million from its clients The prominent Los Angeles attorney was a key figure in helping secure a settlement that later became the storyline to the movie Aaron Brockovich us attorney Martina Str his insatiable appetite for money is what led him to court and what led to this verdict today Kimberly Archie who once worked as a legal consult for the gerardi firm spoke after the verdict I actually believe at one point that Tom Gerard was a decent human being that he was a hero you know what they say about meeting your Heroes right I'm going to disappoint you Gerard's sentencing is set for December 6th Global News 24 hours today whenever you want it with Bloomberg News now I'm Michael bar this is Bloomberg Tom Paul John there's a 12 billion dollar transaction in investment Paul help me here they're going to do a 10% stub the NFL is going to let Blackstone and others own 10% of the Dallas Cowboys the New York Post has a commitment of 12 billion in capital yep what's the real story going on here NFL owners are getting even richer the values of their franchises are going even higher because now you have like a new pool of money private Equity can now own pieces of NFL franchises for the first time wow I mean they're just Washington Redskins commanders went it's 6.05 billion that makes the Detroit Detroit Lions wor who who would buy 10% of the Lions I would I could see lots of people Bloomberg's surveillance good morning markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash and I'm John Tucker in the Bloomberg Newsroom with this Bloomberg business flash major averages uh Haring around records Down Jones at Dodge leverage coming off another record Clause of most active pre-market shares of yes Nvidia those shares of about 210 of a percent Foot Locker turnaround continues but investors not really impressed uh sneaker seller snap five consecutive quarters of negative comp sales but it's down to 85% premarket uh Nordstrom that was out with results of the close they delivered an improved sales Outlook it is up 3/4 of a per pre-market uh Bitcoin posting its biggest drop since early August and crypto link stocks as a result they fell right now down Futures down two S&P mini Futures down two the NASDAQ futures down 11 um the journal with a story this morning on out of office email replies they offer cander not courtesy is the headline and who does the journal sight but one Barry ridols there we go with his outgoing messages the king of Roode the king well they don't necessarily here's his message peacefully contemplating the world during this time I'll be out of the office not checking emails avoiding texts ignoring slack letting calls go to voicemail Off the Grid and generally unreachable I wouldn't call it rude it's very Barry though we thought bar is in the other day just's getting over hip surgery told us all about it looking good you know talking about common sense and Equity I believe a new book by Barry rid Holtz scheduled for 2026 DiCaprio to play Red Holtz in the movie Bloomberg surveillance brought to you by interactive brokers Bond Marketplace access their vast selection of over 1 million Global fixed income securities no markups no built-in spreads and low transparent commissions learn more at ibkr.com bonds across the Bloomberg intelligence world of how many Paul 23 400 a, 435 people the guy most surreptitiously read is one our shiffman because it's bonds and its Tech and its debt Paul Sweeney why don't you bring in his worship absolutely Rob shman Technology Credit analyst for Bloomberg intelligence Rob we're going to get Nvidia after the close tonight from a credit perspective I'm look at their balance sheet they got 30 billion of cash or something theyve got 11 billion of debt they'll have free cash flow of 60 billion this fiscal year 85 billion next fiscal year as a credit analyst what do you want them to do with their balance sheet it uh it must really be a slow summer week to get the credit guy in here talking about Nidia huh bottom of the barrel can continue still so honored to be here listen I did my prep work for today I Googled what AI was so I'm all ready to talk about this name um I have the easiest job at uh Bloomberg I think being a credit analyst covering Nvidia or Microsoft or apple or Amazon or exactly really is uh is really pretty straightforward um I I I don't think credit people really are paying attention tonight to be honest you know this is an equity story and the reason why it's an equity story is because it trades at some crazy equity multiple you know multiple and and the reality is you know what can keep that multiple going and it's simply having growth rates that are in excess of what the market anticipates the growth rates here though are they're they're they're unsustainable over a long period of time so it's not so much about like today's print I think uh I think it's about how how long they can keep this going this is the money question for all you Global Wall Street good morning out in the Hamptons and all the other places around the world we fancy people this is theone running question you're at Cornell high above cayuga's Waters you're reading Z bod out of Boston University and there you know mem and all this other theory about Corporate Finance which is you should take advantage of debt your world doesn't want debt let's start with that why does Apple with all that money have 3% debt yeah we've talked a long time about weighted average cost of capital and why all my companies should be Levering up and buying back stock why are they is it just arrogance no they have nothing else to do with their money it's pretty simple Paul asks us all the time like why don't they raise dividends they do you know they keep giving money back it's just more money keeps pouring in and it's a good it's a good problem to have and that's why you have $3 trillion valuations and come on they could do a de they could do Nvidia could do a debt offering today in four phone calls so Nvidia could raise a hundred billion dollar of debt this afternoon if they wanted to and buy back stock and it wouldn't make why do that because it wouldn't make any difference to the stock price quite frankly everyone runs their balance sheet for one reason and it's to maximize their stock price in this case it no longer matters what their weighted average cost of capital is when you have you're coming off a 200% Revenue growth rate and now you're at 100% Revenue growth rate the key is that you can keep that at 75 65 55 not that you can use 65 or hundred billion doll of cash to buy back stock or raise dividends by 5% it really doesn't matter so this balance sheet here I mean it's it's it's the same story for a lot of your big Tech names there I mean what do they really do with their balance sheet and from you could argue that it really just doesn't matter because the free cash flow generation supersedes everything I actually think Nvidia has a little bit more of a good problem than some of the other Bid Tech names that I cover if you look at apple or Microsoft Amazon meta um and take a take a a look at what they're spending on capex 40 5060 billion a year look what Nvidia spends less than $2 billion and I think that what that's going to mean is that they're going to have a more significant buildup in cash relative to to their peers they're going to be required to do something Nvidia like we've been talking about these other names increasing BuyBacks record BuyBacks they've actually been doing that Invidia is is you know the baby of this group and at least from a credit standpoint from an equity standpoint they're just as big as everybody but what they going to need to start doing you're going to see massive returns of capital from Nvidia they have a $25 billion buyback program in place right now I wouldn't be surprised if they doubled it and doubled that again next year I we're get coverage this afternoon i' love to speak to Jensen and all are we going to see that announcement today is it in the cards or is it like a fiscal year end kind of statement you know it I think there's a decent chance you could see it today just because they have such a small authorization as is so um often times like especially if they miss you know it it it sometimes companies try to help their stock price by putting in some sort of shareholder return boost I wouldn't be shocked I Honestly though I don't think it really makes a difference I do think though Nvidia they they do not look like their peers because of this capital expenditure requirement that's so minimal if you compare them to what was you know the biggest semiconductor company for a long long time Intel you couldn't have more of a stark differential that's because one company has to spend tens of billions of capex another doesn't well John Tucker was just asking me the question earlier what happened to Intel what happened to Intel well you know Intel had a lock on the PC market for decades and you know it's a great business and it still is a great business but the reality is they've got two businesses one is they develop um their own chips and sell them and they also make chips for others and when you're in The Foundry business it it takes lots of years and lots of billions of dollars um to build capacity when Pat Ginger came back he said we're going to double down on found capacity and that cost a ton of money um it created a negative free cash flow position and then what happens is their Core Business their core PC business is in Decline I got 30 seconds I know it's the first time you've been in the office since July you know Robert shiffman just as simple as I can where is NVIDIA five years from now how do you I don't mean the numbers I mean just you steeped in the technology business what does Jensen's company look like five years from now yeah I think others are going to catch up I mean in in the world of Hardware I mean we've seen tons of companies develop you know killer apps you know better mouse traps and then over time um that sort of disappears there's a few companies that are anomalies like an apple but I think others over time are going to end up catching up to Nvidia and you're also going to see growth rates slow down it's just a law of large numbers I think they're going to be the dominant player in the AI Market um uh at least from um um a hardware perspective and a chip perspective 5 years from now um I'd be wary though that these lofty types of multiples can be maintained Robert shiffman thank you so much can't say enough about uh the appearance today uh Robert schiffman driving all of our technology as Paul correctly says balance sheet yeah analysis it's great I mean just to be a CFO or controller uh of some of these big tech companies and all the cashes comes in every day and now you're actually generating a return on that cash with rates for there he explained why they don't have debt I just don't buy it I got cost of debt Apple almost 11% cost of excuse me cost of equity y almost 11 cost of debt almost four I just I just just I flat out don't understand it okay 929 FM Boston they're going classic rock to Bloomberg September 3rd we are only playing classic rock up to September 4th Bloomberg surveillance you start strong with Banji we a shot oh halfway there on take my hand we make it I swear he this is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keane and Paul Sween Apple still minting more money than God right geopolitics front and center for Global Wall Street with Lisa Mato on markets stocks are coming off of another record H and Michael bar with news US Secretary of State discussed the conflict in Gaza the best in economics Finance investment and international relations this is Bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg radio good morning everyone Paul Sweeny Tom keing Michael bar Lisa Matteo out out out John Tucker in and in on a very interesting Wednesday Robert shiffman was lights out on Nvidia huge response EAS just drob of bloomer to be a credit analyst for technology companies yeah but he talking about Intel the tobacco there this was very good we'll have much more on that through the day and of course this afternoon big Equity event big Tech event we'll love coverage Ed L low uh with Jens you look for that tonight in the 6:00 hour special edition of Bloomberg uh technology speaking of Technology we are embracing YouTube as best as we can subscribe out on YouTube to Bloomberg podcast you go there there's a little chicklet with Lisa Mato on it and you click on that and there's John Tucker live which is you know not the worst uh torture and Apple carplay Android auto uh as well and all sorts of other things and we should mention big announcement for us Giant signal from New England from Mount katata in main down to the National Hotel in Black Island 929 FM in Boston we're going to do that September 3rd looking we're only playing classic rock at the end of the hours nice very good now until September we started with Bon Joy which I thought yep solid John Tucker were you glad that we started with Living on a Prayer you know Bon Joy not a joy fan why did I know that you're your neighbors yeah he's just down the street just down the street I see him at his PJs taking up the trash in the morning yeah you those Bruce slippers uh right now we got a little red on the screen minus six vix under 16's important 15.8 right to it from the Interactive Broker Studios the Bloomberg business flash John bonjovi Tucker and right now the uh major averages uh in the pre-market down e mini Futures down 28 S&P futures down five Nasdaq futures 33 points lower well analysts expect a More than 70% boost in Revenue growth for Nvidia ahead of earnings after the close most active again at just about no change Coal's Rising 3% the retail raising its full year forecast for earnings per share and operating margin another earnings report this morning Foot Locker dropping around 6% second quarter same store sales beat estimates but it's not enough to sustain the stocks rally of 46% since the last earnings report uh here's a different indicator for you surveyed by the Dallas fed one manufacturer notes modest growth in its sausage category it's one of several products that'll be correlated with an economic downturn Americans apparently replacing Stakes with sausage under shopping lists uh we have BR crew right now down a15 7840 NX crew down a121 7432 a barrel we check the markets for you all day long right here in Bloomberg Radio I'm John Tucker that's your Bloomberg business flash Paul and to John Tucker thanks so much I'm going to say this right out front we protect the copyright of all of our guess if you want to hear the Brilliance you're going to hear here in a moment you want to read about it go to HSBC and check for the work of Nicole inoi she is world class in latam equity strategy comes from Brazil today but we're really going to focus on the United States economy with her as we can do just bulletproof experience out of Columbia in Georgetown Nicole you have the strongest two pages in your note on the halves and the have knots of America it's real simple the hav knuts are struggling we all know that and the halves are there getting it done what does that relationship that you show in your charts brilliantly what does that relationship look like in 2025 well that that that's a great question you know what we've seen all year is this k-shaped consumer you know the highend consumer doing well benefiting from wealth effects from higher home prices higher Equity prices and a lower income consumer that is that is definitely struggling definitely feeling the pinch of inflation and really searching for Value so you know we've seen this in the macro data we've seen this in the in the company commentary so we're seeing how companies are reporting you're seeing companies in the consumer sector doing very well because they're gaining share so you're seeing a middle- inome consumer trading down you're seeing these uh large retailers really able to promote and and show value and bring more flow to their uh to their stores you know next year we're in a mode now of of rate cutting so we expect the FED to cut in September as everybody else does we expect a gradual rate cutting cycle and this should add some relief for this consumer or these areas of the economy um that have been weak you know so we have a a weaker housing market we've seen this through some of the data on the the Home Improvement retailers that have seen uh uh more struggles in terms of sales so you could see some relief there you could see some relief with the low-income consumer which really is the the part of the the consumer that is feeling the impact of higher rates and we've seen this through higher delinquencies in auto loans and credit card loans right so we think as rate comes down you're going to see some relief in these these really areas points of weakness pockets of weakness that we're seeing in in the economy right now Nicole what did you make of this earning season here here and and kind of some of the Outlook uh we heard from some of these companies you know this earning season has been great you know you look at the second quarter we're seeing almost 80% of the companies beating on EPs and what we liked about this quarter is we're seeing this broadening of earnings growth so it's no longer just a tech mag s story you're seeing financials you're seeing utilities you're seeing Healthcare all growing earnings at a similar rate as Tech so again Tech is still performing very well you still have very high Roes but you're seeing other sectors that are catching up and it's really uh uh bringing into this broadening of this Equity rally that we we expect over uh over the second half of the year and the commentary from the company so if you look at guidance has been very positive so you know you have those two combinations and that sets the the stage for a very good second half of the year in terms of corporate earnings where again expectations are high but what we found interesting is you're not seeing analysts revising higher estim so you had EPS beats you have positive uh commentary from the companies but you're really seeing earnings for this year pretty much staying stable so you're not seeing analysts put that into uh their their numbers yet for for 2024 Nicole one of the big stories today here at Bloomberg radio and television is the earnings after the close of um Nvidia as a strategist are you concerned at all that it seems like the market and the Market's performance seems to be tied fairly closely to to one stock you know concentration risk is you know the the risk we learn in in finance 101 you know you have to diversify and yes what we've seen so far this year is this rally has been highly concentrated you know we looked for the past 30 years and we haven't found a time where we have had such a concentration in terms of uh this uh Equity rally uh year-to date in a in a small subset uh of stocks so obviously when some very concentrated uh you do have that concentration risk um you know I think I'm not going to comment on individual stocks but you know this is why we think uh again Tech continues to perform very well it it's less of an outlier as before um and we really think going into the second half of the year uh the invest should broaden into some of these other sectors that we think earnings growth can can keep up and we're going to see actually an acceleration it should do do very well Nicole you come from uh Brazil and just as a general statement do you see a political stability across South America that can to lead to financial and economic success that leads to stock market appreciation yes I mean in Latin America we've had um not a great start of the year so start of the year you know if we look at that returns year to dat uh they have been down a lot of this has been part of the the currency weakness that we 've seen both in Mexico uh both in Brazil but you know let's talk about the positive we're seeing growth GDP growth in Brazil coming in better than expected we're seeing corporate earnings across the region so Mexico and Brazil coming in very strong these are companies that have strong balance sheets they pay um uh great dividend yield so you're looking on a total return basis um these stocks are very attractive and you're looking at Equity valuations that that are high discounted I think with any Market you have to find those pockets of strength um you know overall it's you know you're you're looking at a consumer you're looking at some of these ftech companies that are doing extremely well but really it's you know a stock Pickers Market Nicole thank you so much Nicole interiew with us H head of us uh and latam Equity strategy for HSBC phenomenal work on the polarization the parts of the American uh consumer again Futures at ne7 though the vixs under 16 15.82% uh really down near New Low yields for the two-year with our news in New York City Michael bar thank you very much Tom Paul John vice president kamla Harris has agreed to her first interview since she kicked off her presidential campaign more than a month ago Bloomberg's Lura Davidson has more from Washington she and Tim Walls will sit down for an interview um Thursday evening with CNN um this is the first time they've done that since uh they became a ticket Harris the first time since she became uh the nominee and this is something that that Trump and other Republicans have really criticized her for for not doing one of these unscripted appearances um of course you know they there will be debate you know allegedly next month on September 10th um there's been some discussion between Trump and Harris about what if that will happen but this will be um you know later this week her first time that voters will really get to see her you know when she's not in front of a teleprompter not totally in control of where the discussion is going Bloomberg's Laura Davidson reports that the discussion is set for tomorrow night at 900 p.m. Wall Street time on CNN today Harris and walls will visit Savannah Georgia Republican vice presidential candidate and Ohio Senator JD Vance hit the campaign Trail in Big Rapids Michigan after the rally Vance slammed the tone of the Harris campaign and claim that she talked down to voters during her acceptance speech at the Democratic National convention criticize what I want to do criticize what Donald Trump wants to do but this whole like wag your finger and warn you of extremely serious consequences I feel like she sounds like a vice pres principal who's criticizing a student and not a vice president who's trying to lead the country I just don't like the tone Trump and Vance have come under Fire for various personal attacks so far in the 2024 campaign the US Special Council investigating Donald Trump is pressing ahead with Prosecuting the former president on charges of trying to overturn the 20 20 election special counil Jack Smith filed an updated indictment that remov several pages of allegations following the Supreme Court's Blockbuster decision finding Trump at least partially immune from prosecution related to his official acts as president Global News 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News now I'm Michael bar and this is Bloomberg Tom Paul John magel bar thanks so much Jen Tucker Paul Sweeney jump in here from New Jersey I loved in uh interviewing and talking to Bill pascrell only and always of Patterson New Jersey I missed this I was out of Jackson Hole Michael barart thank you so much for mentioning it this morning the death of Bill pesc at 87 talk about old school he got angry at me once John he goes Tom in my district there's 11 languages that was P yeah like get real yeah he's the definition of what uh uh house speaker would say you know it it's all local so it's all local he was mayor Patterson that but I would suggest on all sides of the political aisle now there's just this yearning for more Bill Pell's people that are actually and that was very normal to not only be the mayor of Patterson but also you know maybe the congressman or a local assembly leader like before him uh Frank Graves used to hang up on me yeah I I just used to hang up on you cuz I wasn't quick enough with the questions I love talking to Bill pesel he has died at 87 he is what I I I'm sorry Republicans Democrats all of it it's what we want as people wedded to the local community sergeant in US Army going into yeah and just did it all the death of Bill C pesel at 87 Futures at negative 8 from New York City on YouTube Bloomberg surveillance markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash and I'm John in the Bloomberg News with this Bloomberg business flash uh more retailers reporting earnings results this morning uh just cross it a few minutes ago Al uh abber croing and Fitch beating analyst sales expectations for the sixth consecutive quarter but not enough to satisfy investors this comes after a big run up in the stock price this year uh right now in the pre-market abber cromi and fish is down 10% and as we look at the uh the major stock averages down Futures right now 39 points lower down a 10th of a% S&P mini Futures they're down five that's down a 10th of a%c the NASDAQ futures right now 28 points lower that is down a tenth of a percent of course most active pre-market shares of Nvidia right now up about a tenth of a percent ahead of the earnings report after the close of regular trading today and we check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio I'm John tuer that's your Bloomberg business flash Paul Tom thanks so much John Tucker it's been way way too long I guess it's the boredom of a gallon of gas or a Barr of oil Paul sinki joins now sinki research just absolutely iconic in trying to figure out hydrocarbons Paul why haven't we talked to you why is the oil patch so boring wait wait I thought I was here to talk about Nvidia results exactly way in what um you know what it is I think it's technology actually you know that the the the companies are so much better producing oil and gas than they were in the past you know as you know they've had very uh right disciplined capex you know but we've got 3 million barrels a day of spare capacity in oil I that's a lot of oil Tom as you know so yeah it's it's it's just oversupplied and to make it worse us natural gas is oversupplied US refining is arguably oversupplied and chemicals are oversupplied so I'm not surprised you don't want to talk to me more often birthday greetings to Warren Buffet he's 94 it's today or tomorrow I'm sorry I can't remember at which but birthday greetings to Mr Buffett who has changed so much of how we think Paul sanki he has an interest in Vicky hb's company accidental petroleum what is The Accidental petroleum distinction well I think that they they originally came to him for money right in order to buy anad Darko and I think that's how he got into it I I had been told by somebody who knows that his original interest was actually in Oxy chem um the chemicals Alkali business which is sort of a you know oligopoly type very high cash flow business that would suit uh Buffett very buet as you say very well um but I think subsequently because of the amount of of U stake he had in the company in terms of the risk of the debt I think he decided and with all the cash he had I think he decided to uh to build a major State now having said that you may have noticed but he stopped buying it around at the same time that it was announced that you know he'd sold down apple and so the stock we expect to actually be weak here and we're uh we're a little bit negative on oby at the moment just because of that lack of buying that drove stock so high Paris from Paris emails in Mr Buffet's birthday August 30 okay she's in charge of putting the candles on the cake oh boy good luck to that hey Paul I'm just looking at the price of Bren crude here we are at $78 and change here it seems like since the end of 2022 it's kind of been in a fairly tight trading range where do I have to focus Supply demand what's driving this well demand is fine you know demand is actually pretty good now of course as you know we we've we've seen Peak demand in the US we're now in in effectively in decline or long plateau and obviously there are major worries about China but the weight of global population is just so immense and the fundamental nature of oil to economic activity is you know an important driver of demand so the demand side looks fine the problem is definitely Supply and the reason that we've been in this range that you talk about which does look like a good range I mean you know it's been quite tightly held is basically Saudi managing the market the problem is that UAE who is the core of OPEC alongside Saudi wants to produce more oil and they're concerned that essentially they'll be left with over you know reserves that never get produced because the sheer size of their reserves if they don't produce the oil relatively quickly and they're ke to get towards 5 million barrels a day of output where they're currently at closer to three so there alone you have 2 million barrels a day keeping in mind that in a good year the market grows a million that's when we talk about the three million barrels a day of spare capacity being such an overhang but it hasn't been produced and so you know the oil prices maintain the range the issue is we're in Q3 which is a strong quarter for oil demand but now we're going into the end of the year which weakens and OPEC wants to increase and that's why we've been kind of bearish on your ACC claim spreadsheets does electric vehicles click into it at all I mean Paul for one year or now or five years out or that is there any marginal tweak Supply or demand because of EV 100% I mean the fact of the matter is that the largest single uh Factor the largest single sector in oil is US gasoline and you know that's 10 million barrels a day right one in 10 barrels consumed globally and obviously if you have a significant Ed penetration uh that's going to you know we've been working on that for 10 or 15 years 12 absolutely and it and it is negative for gasoline demand obviously it's just that the rate of sales is somewhat disappointing uh and you know the penetration into the fleet is is therefore also weaker than you might have anticipated the other interesting thing Tom which you know most people just don't know is that California is now 60% of its diesel demand is renewable seon you know this is a big number and so we're really seeing the transition I know there's been a lot of bumps in the road but in reality the transition is occurring the other thing that California has done is add a lot of batteries which we've always said is the Holy Grail of of energy so you know these things are actually happening it's it's been a bit messy but but we are in a transition there's no question and that of course is negative for all demand so Paul I mean I guess one of the questions I maybe a little bit more in the near term is OPEC talking about maybe um letting Sunset some of their uh Supply constraints kind of where are we with OPEC these days how how much are they really impacting Global prices well as you said I mean it's very important I think we'd be $10 at least lower if Saudi hadn't taken this voluntary million additional million barrels a day off the market so they're holding back their loan a million barrels a day that they can add pretty much any time and as I said the key to the OPEC relationship is Saudi and UAE which the UAE wanting to to increase production um elsewhere the other key thing which is a mess you know and I always say if they if they if they're speaking they're lying is what's going on in Russia because you don't really I mean it's part of the non-opc setup obviously but what what's more important to Ukrainian attacks on their infrastructure on their refining on their shipping if if that's what happens and that's obviously reducing oil supply globally because of the Russian situation uh sanki thank you so much seni research there way too long we got to get you on he's got to be on like you know every 30 days every time I think that's good did you see in and I saw the the the Hummer EV one John has yeah you know it wow okay I saw an ad for it it's very I'm sure Matt will be testing it shortly um the only one working at City group is Jazelle Haw Hollen hor is gone Veronica Clark's off for the month of August uh jazella releases a city group daily update labor market is softening this is the first look at that key I believe September 6 number we project 125,000 new jobs okay the unemployment rate to stay at 4.3% but they say it's not weather related distortions surging labor Supply it reflects a Slowdown in hiring thank you for Zella for working today exactly but you know that gets us out to that next key data it does is it more important than viia maybe maybe maybe the for the Federal Reserve we'll see Paul and I are you know full disclosure folks we're not we're we're into intelligent conversation on Nvidia like you're GNA hear with Ed llo tonight with Jensen is is it Wang Wong Wong Jens Jensen Wong the CEO of this miracle it's 30,000 people I mean we forget we think it's like 200,000 people yeah it's not no but it's a stock that has just got the extraordinary uh valuation time 3.2 trillion is the market cap today it's up 160% just this year I didn't know that yep wow cuz I don't know exactly you don't triple ever is all cash you know it's not there that's all right but you're getting a nice but there's a belunas told us there's an Nvidia leveraged ETF and I'm sure there's one on the short side as well XO XL look thank you look at the control room in here oh that's what you guys are doing when we're missing cues you guys are in Robin Hood day trade from the surveillance control room secrets out now stay with this busy week ahead from New York City on YouTube subscribe to Bloomberg podcast good morning markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash and I'm John Tucker in the Bloomberg News with this Bloomberg business flash uh future right now indicate a slightly lower open Nvidia expected to reject Revenue growth of More than 70% for the current quarter it reports of course after the market closed most active little change right now super micro computer shares set to extend their losses after that Hindenberg research report saying it's short the maker of server equipment uh Bitcoin was below $60,000 precipitating a drop in crypto link stocks like clean spark a CO's adding over 4% the retailer raising its full year earnings forecast and then you also had uh among the retailers abocom pitch uh Fitch beating analyst sales expectations for the sixth consecutive quarter but uh that fails to impress invest as those shares they are down right now D Futures 40 points lower S&P e mini Futures uh down about five the NASDAQ futures 20 points lower and we check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio I'm John Tucker that's your Bloomberg business flash Paul and Tom John Tucker thanks so much he's back from the million dooll Cowboy bar tonight in a bar alone I'm sitting yes laughter and the cheer Bob Wills bubbles in my beer Michael mcke who foundationally has done our Jackson Hole theme for years really providing a leadership and the Excellence of all in Jackson Hole what a speech 10 years from now will this be the speech that they will remember of Jerome poell I don't think so actually I mean he basically told people what they were expecting to hear he was a little more direct about it it's going to be that 8 Minute uh we'll do whatever it takes speech that will people remember because it was so outside the bounds of what was expected that's kind of the way these things go uh I I do think it was a strong speech and laid out where they're going to be and the markets are obviously reacting to that but uh it wasn't a shocking speech like that I mean you remember the 8 minutes uh we were stunning we were sitting there going oh wait a minute we have to talk for a long time now right exactly well I remember listening to the speech and thinking I don't need Michael mcke to read between the lines for me because he was very clear I thought I thought that somebody like me a lay person could say oh they are committed to cutting rates and I think the market Michael is paying attention we got the 2-year treasury 3.86% the Market's kind of getting us already well here's the funny thing you look up a month ago and I was looking at this morning at the yield curve the 2-year yield is down over 50 basis points fed because they've set this up has gotten a cut already in uh rates and we did see this morning that mortgage rates according to the Mortgage Bankers Association are at their lowest in more than a year does does that fold into GD sween's gone exatic on that does that fold into GDP can you say this tone and this yield structure supports the Atlanta GDP now forecast well it appears to Atlanta's come down they're at 2% now so that's approximately or maybe just a little bit above potential what people think of as potential growth we'll see how this goes into um the last month of the quarter because it is back to school season uh we get GDP this Thursday but that's just a revision to the second quarter so it'll be a while before we know but it does appear at this point that people are still spending we get a spending report for uh the month of July coming up in uh on Friday and that'll be of interest and it seems like I'm just looking at the core pce um month to month 0.2% is what we're kind of looking for 2.7% on a year-to-year basis I would think the feds feels very comfortable those numbers fed's comfortable with those numbers it's not going to be a sign of progress in the sense that the year-over-year numbers don't go down but part of that is base effects because it inflation was high last year but uh we'll see if it makes enough progress and then underneath the hood uh they're looking particularly at housing in the CPI and the pce to see if it is finally coming down as they anticipated maybe in Florida yor I mean there's like Ken Griffith and Citadel everybody moving to Florida they're living large like Mike McGlone okay fine and then there's a Florida struggling it's the same thing out in Wyoming I mean we just had Nicole inway on from HSBC with brilliant charts of the polarization of American consumption you see it in Jackson Hall I mean bro's on the golf stream I'm sitting there at gate 10 at JC waving at brammo in the window of the golf stream the polarization of the consumer in America Michael I would suggest we've never seen this does does the FED care uh yes they care but can they do anything about it no uh I was actually talking with a a Fed Governor out there about this and there were some protesters out there as there usually are uh from the Fed Up group about uh you know they're they are upset about the polarization or the the the financial divide but the FED has one tool they can raise interest rates or lower interest rates they can't do anything about it this is an issue that's got to be addressed on the fiscal side so um if you're going to protest that go show up at a Donald Trump or kamla Harris event and protest was there a sense or any discussion of this American exceptionalism in terms of the economic environment these days was there any discussion of that in Jack Jackson Hole not discussion of it in that sense there's an acknowledgement that the US economy is at this point performing better than all of the others and there's a lot of reasons why that uh can't you you can't exactly point to one reason but um the that was sort of taken for granted at this point it's uh it's been in the data for a while okay my annual question drives me nuts over the private nature of this the papers that were actually given past the grizzly bear did you see the photo yeah of me and Shaq with a Grizz Grizz was a big help but with security moving off the other Bears Mike the papers in that closed room behind the grizzly bear which paper paper stood out to you uh the Edson paper on uh the difference between uh more the impact of the beverage curve on the Phillips curve now I've just there set you up to see why um this is not an exciting conference for a lot of people other than the Chairman's uh Speech but uh the paper basically posited that uh the beverage curve which tracks the uh difference between the job openings and the unemployment rate uh they argue that um when you get to a certain level of that then uh the Philips curve gets uh more vertical and you get a higher uh unemployment rate can can you when when you talk to them because you have so much impact can you when Kansas City calls you like like G's paper with with Pier Paulo bino it's 51 pages and they keep it secret instead of so I can sell it on air you know I mean I mean you're right it's like inward economics but at the same time there's this huge secrecy at Kansas City why is that secrecy there I can't give you an answer I don't know why uh I suppose they feel that some papers might be Market moving and so they were really you think so I mean I don't know uh I've not asked because as a inv ined guest I do get to see Advanced copies of excuse me you're looking at a non-invited guest there's John if you went out you'd be a non-invited guest story I don't know they might they might let John in you you get a mer did you get a merch back no there there's no merch there's no swag no swag no swag out there Government after is is the party is it what what day Friday night is that the big party uh it's Western night that's Western night yeah economists go wild when no not exactly but they do pass out uh fake cowboy hats and and Tin Stars if people want to dress up uh Western but it is not that's not the uh I mean when you say party it's not exactly a rockus event you see any bison out there yes oh oh yeah yeah stuck in one bison traffic jam and I mean they're all over the place they they can go anywhere they want they could walk into the rules nobody tell rul what they and my driver said that that it's actually been a really difficult like summer and all that there's there's lots of anals out there Michael mcke thank you so much thank you so much for his truly his leadership I mean he's got some fancy title about domestic and international economics but basically Mike m running the show for us on economics major shout out Amber Ali thank you so much for the choreography that we got of keeping Mr Dr Posen on speaking terms with Dr Edson and okay the rest of it it's very political a checkon whole as well should we shift to Nvidia why not why not I mean after the close today I mean uh Carol M Tim stovic they'll proba be breaking down the earnings as they cross the tape here but it just as M deep sing from Bloomberg intelligence has said for four or five quarters now the bar is extremely high in terms of I only the results but the guidance but they clear that bar it seems like every quarter so we see if they can do it again I mean don't you agree with me that if if it was a shaky quarter they would have whispered it out there would have been some nugget I don't maybe and I have not seen any analyst kind of waiver here um ahead of it I mean the channel checks you hear from some of these Wall Street anals are still pretty positive so we'll see what they can do tonight I mean let me let me look here quickly we got to get trailing 12 months up 175% yeah I mean if you do a standard deviation study of Nvidia I'll have this math for you in a moment it's ginormous the spread here looking at the success of Nvidia and what that means for support if bad news happens with our good news Across the Nation Michael bar thank you very much Tom Paul John the US Special Council investigating Donald Trump for election interference is pressing ahead with his case blomberg's Ed Baxter has the tals it partially got derailed when the US Supreme Court ruled that a president could have partial immunity at least for official AC ACS while in office so special counsel Jack Smith updated the indictment that removed several allegations but does feature the same four charges accusing Trump of conspiring to reverse his election loss the new grand jury action comes less than three months before the election there will be more legal wrangling to come and Smith said that he does not expect a trial before election day Ed Baxter Bloomberg Radio Senator JD van speaking in Nashville gave his reaction to the news I think it's clearly an effort to try to do more election interference from Jack Smith he should be ashamed of himself vice president Harris and Minnesota Governor walls will embark on a campaign bus tour of Georgia today meanwhile Harris and walls will give their first interview since the vice president became a candidate on CNN tomorrow night Latino activists in Texas are demanding a federal investigation into allegations of voter intimidation and harassment by State Attorney General Ken Paxton Lydia Martinez says she just been released from the hospital last week when nine armed men with a warrant rang her doorbell at 5:00 a.m. they searched everything in my house the 87-year-old is a member of the league of United Latin American citizens and a longtime voter registration volunteer AG Paxton has said the raids were part of an ongoing election Integrity investigation extreme heat is affecting millions of people across the country including kids who just went went back to school forecasters say that almost two dozen cities in the Midwest and Northeast could see record highs today with triple digit temperatures for some Global News 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News now I'm Michael bar and this is Bloomberg Tom Paul John this makes news like in June Heatwave it's like OMG Heatwave late August we're like yeah okay so what but the answer is the same heat in late August that it is in early June yes it is it's hot ious stuff yeah summer last guest for summer all good smartest thing I heard all summer was Gina Martin Adams you know main stay of Florida and she was heated that it's changed Florida that Florida's not the same anymore because of the persistent heat I have in-laws that live in Florida and they said the same thing that you just said changed there's a lot more people down there now oh yeah welcome to Florida but you know we'll have to see um I'm going to sell this early I mean Paul's going to talk about it as well but to have Daman sassar in we don't need to do em we did that with wi thin we did that with Audrey shout frean we got to talk to Damen sassau about the National Football League looking at a 10% stub special edition Bloomberg business of sports coming up with Damen sassau on the uh 122 billion is one statistic I saw that they were get richer nice I don't know to see them that's what we've got uh right on the screen Futures at ne4 vix 15.74 Edward lllo Bloomberg technology a special 6 PM this afternoon markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash and I'm John Tucker in the Bloomberg News with this Bloomberg business Flash Futures uh edging a bit lower ahead of nvidia's release uh the options Market interestingly enough implying swings of nearly 10% neither Direction on the uh day after the results Invidia shar's steady and pre-market trading having rallied about 160% this year uh some retailer results this morning let's do koh's those shares higher the retailer raising its full year earnings forecast yeah the second quarter Americans between the ages of 44 and 59 ramped up Ira contributions to the highest in 5 years uh this according to a Fidelity Investments report released this morning the universe of 401k millionaires with Accounts at Fidelity rising to almost half a million millionaires uh down Futures right now 34 points lower S&P futures down four and the NASDAQ futures down 16 we check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio I'm John Tucker and that's your Bloomberg business flash Paul and Tom that's J Tucker thanks so much I was wrong I never thought that gambling would come back to sports and a it did inv voided to fast Bloomberg business week with a terrific article on how it's taken over our lives it's a serious issue and now I've got I mean dynasty Equity took out a stake in Liverpool off of Fenway Sports Group John Henry in the Boston Red Sox but I guess now Paul it's a Feeding Frenzy we must turn to Daman hour on his Equity ownership that we're seeing in an NFL team just cut to the chase Daman is this just a cash out by the owners I think it's just uh opening up the league to a bigger buyer base and look there are plenty of teams here I mean the Eagles the Dolphins the bills the Chargers the Browns the Bears I mean there's a lot of old owners that are looking to you know kind of diversify their buyer base and believe me in the case of the Bears I mean 101 year old Virginia mcy I mean you know she needs she needs to create a uh a plan for how that how the owner ship of that company of the franchise is going to pass through and I think you know this allows her to really maximize John Tucker I do not know the answer let's back up Paul Yankee 7 billion one estimate okay Dallas Cowboys more money than God 10 billion estimate the Washington Redskins commanders went for sixish billion to the guy that started Apollo Damian they just want to get a cash out right now as you mentioned I don't know if they want to get a cash out right now but I think what they want to do is reset the valuations I mean if you just look at NFL teams relative to you know F1 or for that matter you know uh you know soccer football in the in the European League I mean you know the fact that private Equity can get involved in some of these other sports allows the you know just the M it allows them get to extract a higher valuation and so you know what I think is most interesting here is where does all this go I mean we know the six or seven there's a 31 to1 vote by NFL ownerships to allow private Equity firms to take up to a 10% ownership stake in franchises they can invest in and get this Paul up to six different franchises you know I guess if you're on minority investor you should be allowed to do that uh no conflict of interest there I mean Pete Rose but I mean you know you get what I'm saying I mean like there's still a lot to be worked out I think it's notable that the one team the one franchise that did not vote in favor y the Cincinnati Bengals so you know I mean we'll see what that means whether or not you know um Paul Brown you know ownership you know son of Mike Brown uh no I have it the other way sorry Brown Bengals co-founder Paul Brown's son Mike Brown voted against it and maybe that's just because the buyer basee for the Cincinnati franch is not quite what you would otherwise expect but hey look they've got Jamar Chase they've got Joe burrow they got a good team looking so I think just I mean two things here one this is just another catalst that drive these valuations for these franchises higher number two as you mentioned Damen I mean there are a lot of family ownership uh which was the origin the original set of owners for this league um but the prices have just gotten too big I mean at the sew if if you want to continue to fund uh the growth of the NFL it's not going to come from wealthy owners it's got to come from institutional money and that's kind of this is just the first step by the way this is just the first step that 10% passive stake is just the first step well I think also you know once I win the fantasy league uh here at Bloomberg this year I'll be in a better position to put my two cents in and maybe you know talk to Woody Johnson Jets owner and see if I can get involved there no I'm kidding but truthfully I did have an Amazing Fantasy Draft last night I blew Rich Truman and Michael bar out of the water so you know it's going to be fun to see this season but look you know I digress you know I talk about the Seahawks you look at someone like Paul Allen you know his wife is running the team you know after his death you know I mean you know what comes next for her you look at some of these other franchises the Los Angeles truck what comes next for them so you know this opens up a lot of doors will they have like their patches on their jerseys I mean is it going to be you know you're going to you're going to sit down and Ken Griffin has Citadel patches on the Miami Dolphins a citadel on the left shoulder of the Miami do you might I mean look I mean let's put it this way he's also trying to buy a steak in the F1 Miami Grand Prix right so if Ste Ross allows you know someone like a Ken Griffin to buy a steak in the Dolphins what's to say they don't cross market and they have you know I don't know Red Bull or or Mercedes F1 I mean on their on their who knows then how does this fall back to TV revenues I mean if these things are worth if the Cowboys are 10 billion and let's say they're worth 16 billion on a redo Paul what does that do to the TV rights well the TV rights um or the payers Play the TV rights drive all valuation or I would say 90% of the valuation of these franchises already in it's already lock locked in and and now you've even though you've got the demise uh of the traditional broadcast and cable networks you have the rise of the technology companies who in fact have deeper Pockets now whether they the Amazon of the world apples ever want to really get involved uh in sports which I think they eventually will then that's that's a whole new ball game there no I agree with you I think you know it's just a matter of time until the private Equity arm of Amazon of Jeff Bezos is basically taking a stake in these companies right why wouldn't he he's incentivized to build up those and build up their awareness we have to run and plug inidia because that's the only that matters the plan Rob Shi I heard him earlier but but Damen very very importantly within in Paul Miss's conversation yesterday audit is honey Deuce US Open right but but Damian we all want to know how Michael bar had such a lousy draft last night every year it's the same act what he's great he's a real competitor you know he you know what he he had a tough draw he was at the 12 hole so you get boxed in at the 12 hole in a 12-man draft but he actually did pretty good the name of his uh of his franchise is the Pocono 400 so you know got to be careful about the Pocono 400 this year no he did pretty well I did steal a few Detroit Lions from him I have his quarterback Jared gof and one of his receivers Jameson Williams on my squad so yeah you know my by the way the name of my team is everything bagel so let's be clear you know because we have everything Bagels here at Bloomberg on Thursdays it's my favorite never had you have to go down to ll2 yeah I'm little we'll send our people down send an intern down y exactly everything bagel is your team when does this pain start this Sunday uh Thursday the 4th of September is opening day it's a Thursday night game one day after we're on 929 FM Boston that's right that's right Wednesday September 3rd we're on 929 Boston but the very next day we're gonna the NFL season starts and so do we so does the so does the Bloomberg fantasy uh fantasy is there a function for this that we can track this you know there isn't that's a good you know what we'll see if we'll see if your viewers if your audience want want a want a regular update but uh but this is going to keep Bloomberg business and sports busy I it's a huge deal yeah know I mean look letting in private Equity I mean Randall Williams has been all over this Bloomberg news reporter he runs our Sports content he has been all over this he's been talking to owners and buyers and private Equity firms for the better part of the last year and a half will go over to other sports like NH it already has yeah yeah the ones that aren't allowed yet I mean it's just a matter of time but this was this was the big one I mean now that the NFL's left private equity and the bar has been set Damen Cesar thank you so much trfic brief Bloomberg business sport Scarlet Fu leading that coverage with one D sasar and embar when they're on speaking terms it adds a lot of value out there as well Paul I got to go back to the two-year yield 3.86% in three basis uh points and clearly what we heard from a key and others is you know this this is just the the the diis off of Jackson hle sure absolutely I mean again you you didn't need a Michael bar to tell you what the FED chairman J pal really is thinking about in terms of what where he wants rates to go he was very clear in his words so now it's just a question of uh by how much and over what time frame obligatory Invidia moment okay take two standard deviations daily chart Nvidia you know 128 it can go up $10 to 137 138 is the peak of two standard deviations are you ready for this yep they can decline 25% and still be within into standard deviations I've never said that folks I I can assure you I have never said that in decades of of doing this that's the rocket ship yeah that Nvidia is stocks trading pretty much unchanged here in the pre-market um but boy this is going to be a a really important print as they always are for this company this afternoon when ad L's on stock goes 128 to 96 blood L can say well we're still within the envelope right Still Still within the envelope nothing the fear here important conversation Ed L look hugely informed on this far better than I will ever uh be we're doing classic rock now to September 4th in celebration of 991 Washington and joining us in 929 FM Boston of course you know Fleetwood Mac why not gone this is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom ke and Paul sweet why are we upset if we're creating jobs inflation is still a thing out there for the everyday consumer with Lisa Mato on markets the economic calendar jam-packed today and Michael bar with news tensions between the US and China have eat up even more the best in economics Finance investment and international relations this is Bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg Radio good morning everyone Tom Keen Paul Sweeny Lisa Mato out out out Harbor Island Bahamas live in large and the weather there's I think it's nicer than here it's like 98 today or something new y get that nice breeze down there well what's the beach look like I mean you know it looks awesome awesome she's with the fam is your water like 90° like Florida no but it is chilly I went in the other day and it was still chilly you get a shock when you jump they said it was 72 I walked back to the left I like dude it's like 67 at best yeah yeah they do that yeah yeah false advertising good morning Across the Nation around the worlds we say special good morning to Melbourne Australia we're looking at YouTube in the evening on the Pacific Rim thunderstuck by the response that we're getting we could we could keep track of that somehow I don't know how they do that but YouTube building every day for her subscribe to the Bloomberg podcast website out on YouTube uh it's there um I can see it right now on my cell phone with a great live chat live chat fired up they don't consider Fleetwood Mac don't stop classic rock I agree I I don't I a huge Fleet with Mac the the best concert I saw relative to my expectations was Fleetwood I agree I went in with relatively high but I came out saying oh my God every single person in that band is a world- class musici I saw them when no one knew who they were with the new Stevie Nicks Lindsay Buckingham they opened for loggin and massina and they stole the show yeah I can imagine they literally stole the show it's interesting to see John Tucker didn't think we'd say this today from our interactor broker Studios let's save the show John Tucker you always surprise me light trading Futures little change as investors eagerly anticipate the earnings report from Yes uh chipmaker Nvidia app to close of regular trading today Nordstrom surpassing Wall Street profit expectations better than expected sales also raising its per share profit guidance and said it planed to open another 21 stores but uh pre-market shares they're down about 1% another retailer koh's shares Rising 2% um after the retailer raising its full year forecast for earnings per share and operating margin despite lowering its sales Outlook uh right now a whole lot of nothing down Futures 22 points lower than the S&P 500 e- mini Futures they're down two and the NASDAQ futures right now they are nine points lower 2-year yield 386 the 10year yield a little change there at 382 let's do uh Brent that is down close to 1% 7881 a barrel NX crude 7477 the barrel 315 on the way in per gallon at the WWA Route 3 Route 36 Wawa in New Jersey very yeah so it's you know it's doable and psychologically 299 is a huge number isn't it if we get there it's heading in the right direction John Tucker thank you so much kit Jukes is so ubiquitous on Wall Street we take for granted his esteemed resum it's it's shocking how he is a gentleman of Europe and of the world of econom ICS and foreign exchange he is with Society General and joins us this morning kid I want to play off the chief executive officer Mr capuano of Marriott he made clear in his conversation with us that there's a complete underestimation of the boom of southern Europe you've got a chalet in Spain and from Lisbon over to Greece and Beyond is there a boom economy that we underestimate uh there is a boom economy I mean in Europe Spain is the standout economy in Europe the summer in Spain is what Spain's about um yeah you need you need to plan your your restaurant reservations and your and your plans right the way across that country at the moment so yeah you know this is we're still we're still in that piece where people didn't enjoy being stuck in and then they're they're still doing it but Spain more than anywhere else Italy clearly doing quite a lot of good things but but yes I would not under that we are not quite yet done with the tourism boom that's probably Universal is is Ugly Americans do we underestimate the resiliency of Europe when C leard has personally lectured me on this do we underestimate the dynamism of Europe I I think Americans understand some bits about it Europe is growing you know it's Resolute it's it's it's resilient in the sense that it tends to avoid significant recessions it's depressing in the sense that It suffers from what we might as well call excess savings on a permanent basis hence the current account Surplus hence the capital flowing out of Europe into US asset markets so those things frustrate me because the unemployment rates are a bit too high for comfort and you know but yes you can you can say there's resilience if you like it it keeps trundling on in its own in its own good way but it doesn't grow fast enough I mean I you know we should we should aspire to more right so kit Tom Keane is planning his fall European tour what what can you tell them about the euro dollar right here well the euro dollar is um you know it's got not a lot of homegrown strength to it the German economy is still vulnerable so you can see even in the last um in the last two months when when the Dollar's Been Under Pressure uh the euro is underperformed the British pound uh doing better as an economy the euro is underperformed the Swiss frank Money's been flowing into that um it's up against the dollar almost by default it is going up against the dollar again because if if Europe an or anybody else wants to bring money home having been overinvestment brilliant on this over the years through every crisis and thick and thing has the dollar broken or can kit you still publish of a resilient US dollar it it's still resilient I mean but it's you know we have to start off by saying the dollar today is still very strong and very expensive it's gone up a long way one of the things that's puzzled me over the years and I started doing this in 1984 I watched the dollar have its big first huge climb into 85 ahead of the plaza record and give all of those gains back without a recession between then and 87 we did the same thing in the great moderation it you know it went shooting Sho up from 1995 all the way up until 2001 by 2004 it had given it all back barely a recession a lot of rate Cuts but not much of a recession and and there's part of me that says the reason for that isn't that the US economy isn't extraordinarily resilient and the US assets aren't wonderful and Americans aren't great people or any of that it's that so much money gets sucked into the dollar when it's really going that in the end when it comes out the dollar the dollar weakens more than we think it does and it's not a bad thing that then causes problems for the rest of the world's central banks because a weak dollar means their currencies are strong their exports are struggling and they all have to buy dollars to boost their foreign exchange reserves so that that is the that's the way the dollar could fall significantly from here not because the US economy has a deep recession but because there's enough money that's flowed in that if we if we take some of the chips off the table and bring them back home uh the dollar can go down a Fair Way kit what's happening over with our friends in Japan the bank of of Japan talk to us about the Yen uh well they they would like I mean they would like everything to calm down for a little bit but they sound very committed still to monetary policy normalization if they're going to normalize monetary policy and raise rates while all of the rest of of us are cutting rates uh they're going to get a stronger currency um the uh the the the carry trade in the in the Futures Market which you can see on from the cftc data was washed out incredibly quickly the carry trade from the longer interterm Investments which is not just carry it's Japanese people looking at the returns available domestically and saying hey the ones I get are bigger in America thanks that flow of money coming back that's still got some legs to go for it you got to remember when they measure purchasing power parity in other words making the cost of just a basket of goods the same in all countries doly Yen's fair value on that overs simplistic measure mid90s we are so high got to leave it there kukes you got breaking news have to run uh let's do this again soon kukes it's suck Jen uh smci is super micro and the answer is some difficult news has come out let's review Paul before you give us the news Hindenburg which is a short shop Hindenburg research they had a short on micro JP Morgan came out at 607 is this morning this off fly JP Morgan keeps an overweight rating on Super Micro after Hindenberg research released a short report it's down from the peak way up from where it was two years ago go and now breaking news yeah Thomas just uh crossing the Bloomberg terminal here super micro computer to delay form 10K filing for fiscal year 2024 the Stock's about off about N9 or 10% on this news here pre-market trading and as you mentioned uh just you know back in uh you know just a you know recent today I mean Super microcomputer shares fell on Tuesday after Hindenberg research said it's uh short the mark the maker of server equipment which became a tech Market darling as a major beneficiary of the boomman artificial intelligence so Hindenberg was out in front of that today we get the 10K news uh you know obviously something going on there but it had been one of those just stocks that had a extraordinary uh rise here starting in the beginning of the year reaching a peak of you know sitting here you know 1190 something like that here we are at 547 we're close bir Ford yesterday writing with Ryan Vesta uh from Bloomberg and the quote from Super Micro I read this verbatim a spokesperson for super micro said the company quote does not comment on rumors and speculation unquote and here we are I'm going to say less than 12 hours later maybe less than 18 hours later with some really difficult accounting news from Super Micro our Tech team will have much more on that I'm sure Ed Ludo will have more on that on Bloomberg technology as well with our news in New York City Michael bar thank you very much Tom Paul John vice president Kamala Harris and a running made Minnesota Governor Tim Walls will take part in their first joint interview it will be held tomorrow night on CNN we get more with Bloomberg's Bill fairies it has been out there for a while that uh she hasn't been doing these uh she hasn't been doing interviews uh she and Tim Walls will sit down on Thursday on CNN uh and that really will be the first chance to uh to have like a a solid sitdown interview so it'll be interesting to see that um I I couldn't explain why she's waited this long um it's obviously a very abbreviated campaign so I don't think this is going to be the last of it and we have the debate uh we think will be happening on September 10th so uh just in about two weeks uh but this will be the first formal sitdown since KLA Harris uh was I guess nominated by uh by President Biden to be his successor uh there at the end of July Bloomberg's Bill fairies Republican vice presidential candidate an Ohio Senator JD Vance was out on the campaign trail yesterday in Michigan at a rally in Big Rapids Vans outlined a top priority for him and his boss Donald Trump Toma Harris wants to open the border on day one Donald Trump is going to close the southern border and his message to every illegal immigrant is pack your bags cuz you're going home Global News 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News now I'm mikae laar and this is Bloomberg Tom Paul John blue butt Detroit Lions Blue Button Dam and sesa are loaded up with the Detroit Lions and their rotisserie yes I haven't talked to you I was out west then you were at the open yep and I don't think I've talked to you about bronfman exiting the Paramount transaction so why did he do it was he just trying to mess with people's brains or is is there a backstory here you can not I've not heard of a backstory but you know the the serious people I talk to in the media space never took him serious seriously um just as a credible bidder there's no real visibility on financing any strategic value he could bring to the company so it wasn't again the the bankers and folks in the imedia industry that I had talked to never really thought it was credible so you're left with and I mean that left with Sky Dan and that transaction and that looks like that can proceed right super micro smci did you hear the silence in the control room they're all get their laptops out there Robin Hood work in this puppy work 547 now 491 it's been flighty to say at the least we'll continue to cover this and you're lucky in the 10:00 hour you got Mike rean with you sure really dive into this that's good exactly the vix 15.65% markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash and I'm John Tucker the Bloomberg newsman with this Bloomberg business flash as we look at Futures right now they indicate a uh lower to mixed to open on Wall Street down Futures right now down 22 points the S&B e Min Futures six points lower than Aztec Futures right now they are 40 points lower most active in the pre-market of course Nvidia down about 3/10 of % ahead of its earnings after the close of regular trading today and just a recap for you in the pre-market shares of super microcomputer those shares right now down 10% uh the company says it expects it will not timely file its annual report that's a form 10K as we look at oil Brent crude is down 8/10 of a per 7890 of barrel NX crude down 63 cents a barrel $74.90 right now and as far as treasuries the 2-year yield unchanged 385 the 10year right now also unchanged that is at 382 we check the markets for all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio I'm John Tucker Matt is your Bloomberg business flash Paul and Tom you got to get an audible question here John Tucker we do this with Ivan feith perfectly timed senior partner grizzled veteran first heard of be Sterns years ago Tigress Financial uh Partners Ian I got to go to SMC I Hindenburg puts out a short report on a stock 24 hours later the company comes out with oops the 10K doesn't look good what is the fith radar say about smci going from Hindenburg tank to oops the 10 doesn't work well not good but um they recently switched in 23 they switched to deot and touche so I guess they're going through the filings again to make sure that there are no issues I mean hidber does have a short position in the stock and then they do publish research that recommends that shorting the stock based on accounting irregularities so I mean uh it is hid BG's work has been questionable um however uh I do like uh super micro it is part of a the AI play so um I right now feel this weakness is a buying opportunity and uh they are a tremendous partner with Nvidia so to right um manage uh outsourced data centers so um hopefully uh there are no irregularities and we look back and this will have been a buying opportunity you've been doing this forever and you've got a wonderful skepticism built into your securities analysis I got 66 buys eight holds no sells on the Juggernaut known as Nvidia what does the Ivan radar say when you see everybody on board well um I think uh back in the olden days they used to view uh a lot of buy ratings as being a contrarian indicator yet uh it has not been the case with Nvidia uh I you can see on Bloomberg that my split adjusted initial buy rating uh going back I think to 2015 is now like 50 cents but uh Nvidia is in at the core of this process of being able originally they were able to take digital information and turn it into visual information at a faster level through their Graphics processors and now they are taking visual information and turning it into digital information which is really the driver of this whole AI uh large language or machine learning process I mean that our brains are analog computers that see things and process visually and based on an analog basis and they give you an example uh a computer learning the difference between a cat and a dog is a visual process and that's what Nvidia is enabling these uh computers to do as we um adopt AI to handle data processing so in terms of what Nvidia needs to do today after the close Ivan I guess that is it has to be another beaten raise or the stocks absolutely well first of all there's expectations that the revenue will be up 70 to 80% year-over-year and that earnings will be up almost 100% and that they will guide hire again for the next quarter and uh more importantly there's been this controversy around whe the next generation processor the Blackwell will be delayed or not which is kind of funny because they haven't they said it's coming and they never gave a specific date so I don't know if it's delayed if you don't really have a specific date but uh it will be F there will be the focus on a discussion of of when the Black well processor will start to ship and they are already have the Next Generation Reuben processor that they announced in uh March of this year that will come out next year so they continue to make faster and more powerful processors and combining now GPU and CPUs so the the Reuben processor is a major Leap Forward and they continue to drive this whole process Ian do you believe as others have said to us that basically Nvidia says you're not going to get the reubin or the Blackwell unless you buy the present ship in that they're basically almost creating a luxury stock scarcity by saying you don't get the 2026 chip unless you load the boat with a 2024 chip is there veracity to that well they can they control the market and uh you know there is a huge demand for processors even the CEO of Super Micro who's friends with Jason uh I mean Jensen Wong continues to ask him for more and more chips uh you have Mark Zuckerberg at meta asking for more and more processors there's huge demand and the data centers are being built based on each level of processor while you're building out the current processor based on the hopper which is the current processor then will'll be followed by the Blackwell um the and Nvidia has to like any company take care of their best customers first hey uh Ian a very uh intelligent investor asked me earlier this morning why aren't some of these other chip companies more competitive with um Nvidia why does Nvidia have such a strong position in this part of the market because there are multiple steps uh ahead of everybody else and you know the quote the the dis while everybody's playing uh Checkers uh Jensen Wong is playing 3D chess so uh they they pioneer the graphics processor and and invented I'm sorry from the beginning have pioneered it and continue to lead frog and be just way ahead of anybody else so um and if your business is dependent on this like the hyperscalers and the cloud service providers businesses are you want to go with the best the most reliable the fastest and even Jensen Wong has said The more you spend the more you save so it also has the the cost cost in processing does present a saving so that is a factor there too Ivan thank you so much I really appreciate the comments on smci is the news breaks of uh questions over their 10K filing and uh Mr fith mentioning deoy touch involved there as well Ivan don't be a stranger thank you with Tigers uh just incredibly well time sometimes you know people go how do you plan this MH we just stumble into Good Fortune exact oh SMC is blowing up there's a red hat line across the Bloomberg turbinal get F Sith no folks he's just there he's there exactly looking at Super Micro computer Tom here in a pre-market off about the just almost 10% here and it's had that the Hindenberg research report has really pushed it down from its uh you know recent highs one of the joys I have in all this is is even if I studied it for like Labor Day weekend I'm going to really read about Nvidia it's like exactly this is you just got to rely on Pros and we've got them here either internally or externally internally or externally we'll continue to bring those debates you know I and we we see our cameras are all lined up here we're like three four guests ahe I can see Michael rean up in the food court now getting ready to work with Paul Sweeney here in 35 minutes Emily Roland's like she's coming up next with John Hancock Ivan's talking about Nvidia and smci Emily you could tell us she's day trading it yes exactly she's right off she's got the laptop open in Boston and she's day trading uh what's going up we at to Emily Roland here on the broader Market she has been dead on about By Us by large caps in the broadening of the market their critical conversation for your Labor Day at weekend futes ne6 ofx 15.65% markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash and I'm John Tucker in the Bloomberg News the opening bell report waiting for the opening bell at 30 York Stock Exchange of course the Nvidia Remains the story of the week as we uh wait for earnings after the close and super micro computer delaying its 10K regulatory filing as you heard right here breaking that news on Bloomberg and a raft of retail earnings Kohl's ring as a full year forecast for earnings per share and operating margin Nordstrom improving its comp sales forecast for the year is is stronger than expected adjusted earnings per sheare Outlook and right out of the gate S&P 500 down just a point 5624 in the index the Dow Jones Industrial Average unchanged right now the NASDAQ 104 points lower and we check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio I'm John Tucker that as your Bloomberg business flash Paul and Tom John Tucker thanks so much uh this is really well time uh New Year's uh New Year's for the business is well it used to be the Wednesday after Labor Day yeah and I'd say Paul's left for the less decade it's sort of a September 15ish yeah yeah you you know new resolution what are you going to do in the Autumn and all that and part of it is either Pro or sitting at home sitting on the deck Labor Day with a can of budweis in your hands saying what's our belief Emily Roland joins from the John Hancock company with the clarity of her belief Emily you have nailed by American by map do you still believe that yeah we do Tom and the way we think about this is you want to identify where are the best earnings Trends and where are the best economic Trends it's as simple as that a lot of people will tell you the valuations are the key input for us we want to look at the denominator of the PE Ratio is the key here and the US has simply been able to generate better earnings results just this year we're looking at a about 11% in the US versus about half that in international markets high quality stocks guess where you find those in the United States those are ones with great balance sheets they've got tons of cash they're going to do a better job defending their margins in an environment where the late cycle Dynamics continue to play out uh very quickly our smci opening here at 9:32 Paul I'm going to go back four days before the Hindenberg news down 21% from where it was August uh 23 into a Friday of last week right now 471 worse than it was pricing before the market open absolutely tomari thank you for that Emily um we just finishing up earnings period here what did you take away from the earnings cycle and maybe the the guidance that we saw from some of these companies yeah earnings this quarter of course much better than expected of course we have a behemoth after the close today which is going to be highly influential um hard to forget that that's coming uh later on today but better than expected technology in particular saw about double the earnings growth as the broad Market um so I think you know there's so many smoking guns out there that investors are pointing to as as you know negatives uh you look at some of the economic data that's coming in worse than expected um you look at especially the labor market data which is showing some cracks earnings is not one of them uh the earnings backdrop has been robust and again that's a key reason that we've continued to emphasize us equities given those positive earnings Trends so we heard from the FED chairman on on Friday pretty clearly looking to cut rates there assuming that actually takes place here maybe beginning in in September what sectors screen well for you in a market where you know earnings I mean the rates seem to be coming down yeah I think you know the the Jackson hle speech by the way was was pretty interesting uh you know we saw exactly what was expected you know Powell obviously confirmed that cuts are coming but I always watch the market reaction and you know we saw bonds move a little bit Market expectations of a rate cut didn't change really 100 basis points penciled in for this year but we saw huge moves in equities and in currencies with the dollar plunging to near twoyear low so I think it was a big sort of sentiment driven mve there move there is nothing to me really seemed to change in terms of the expectations so I think that was notable in ter terms of sectors and parts of the market that we think should do well it's it's sort of the the opposite of the market reaction that we've seen with areas like small cap value stocks doing the best uh since that that day areas like International value stocks which have benefited from that uh weaker dollar we actually think that the FED is probably going to be cutting because something's wrong um maybe it's as simple as margins are getting compressed and the unemployment ratees going up you know growth is is slowly slowing so in that case cyclical assets wouldn't be rewarded this is like the secret life of asset allocators and the way that we think about these cross asset moves it doesn't really make sense you have this odd kind of partnership right now of long data treasuries and gold in international value and small cap stocks being the best performing things out there it actually doesn't really make a ton of sense when you open up your textbooks uh Emily Roland stay with us don't go away we've got to follow smci uh where they're having 10K issues uh thank you Ivan fith for perspective here moments ago opening can't find a bid it was a 550 and it's now 459 459 off of uh where it was 614 a couple days ago before the Hindenburg short report it is down 25 uh% still can't find a bid 456 at right now Emily Roland when we look at the market and this is something you can do from old John Hancock or new John Hancock and Boston you can say when does the money move are we getting near a yield as we see 30-year mortgage down are we getting near a cash equivalent out three months or two years where we see money supporting equities yeah I you know I think we're we're there right now one of the you know we think about these sort of timely indicators in the markets that we watch and and right now to us it's really about initial jobless claims and high yield Bond spreads initial claims you know they picked up a little bit last week they're still in this range of 200 to 260,000 high yield Bond spreads extremely tame at about 310 basis points over treasuries that's well below the average over the last 20 years of 500 basis points so I think until you see movement on that front um I think markets are going to continue to reward equities um we want to think about again leaning into higher quality stocks maybe sprinkling in some more defensive equities but now is the time to think about leaning into high quality bonds because once those two things happen spreads blowout and initial claims rise it's often too late to capture the income that's available in bonds so I you probably remember you know down the street from John Hancock um John F Kennedy once said that the time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining and we think this is the time to think about emphasizing bonds you know before it's too late to get these great yields she's going to quot Ted Williams next time she's on exactly so Emily I mean again we're in a fixed income space you could sit there with a treasury two years get 3.87% it's not where we were just a little while ago north of 4% but still decent or do I take credit risk how much credit risk should I be taking here yeah so our favorite areas in terms of you know the risk return tradeoff right now are investment grade corporate bonds um which are yielding you know four to 5% and I'm talking about like a single a investment grade corporate bond Bond um that's very elevated versus history um we like areas like agency mortgage back Securities which are also you know showing solid fundamentals and good valuations there even treasuries high yields tricky you know when you go down the credit Spectrum right now with spreads as contained as tight as they are historically when spreads have been at this level of around 300 basis points your 12 Monon forward-looking return is around 0 to 1% with a range of positive 10% to negative 10% to us the risks aren't worth it there and by the way you don't even need to go down the credit Spectrum in order to generate an elevated field right now which we think is pretty exciting Emily thank you so much Emily Roland with an important update co-chief investment strategist John Hancock really can't uh the value whether you agree or disagree the value of these conversations gives perspective into the great adjustment known as September on smci 450 just breaking I have a 449 handle on smci and from the preh Hindenberg short I'm taking this back to August 23rd Friday uh down 26.6% off of where we closed out on and and from the recent highs earli in the year down 60% from the recent highs uh from you know so just extraordinary and I have to be honest before this stock took off I'd never heard of the company and I mean it's a it's sitting here with a 30 billion market cap it's it's one of those tech companies that kind of flew onto the screen until it got tabbed as a as an AI player but we're not techsavvy like John Tucker no of course I mean it was uh the best performing stock at the S&P 500 year to date for a very long time are you getting a new iPhone are you finally trading in the one that Michael Douglas used in that there is absolutely nothing wrong I don't know what brand this is and it I think I'm up to 2 and a2k yeah well I was just I was just informed by the Bloomberg tech people that my phone will no longer be I'll be supported that's so that's yet another reason I have to upgrade oh okay they're saying it's so old it won't support the Bloomberg we'll have to see the down Nega 34 with our news in New York City Michael B thank you very much Tom Paul John former president Donald Trump is facing a new Federal indictment related to allegations he tried to illegally interfere with the last election the revised charging document comes in light of the recent US Supreme Court decision granting president's immunity for official acts Donald Trump's running mate Senator JD van spoke in Nashville yesterday about the new Federal indictment it looks like Jack Smith doing more what he does which is filing these absurd lawsuits in an effort to influence the election meanwhile vice president kamla Harris and running mate Tim Walls will give their first joint interview to CNN tomorrow night at the end of a two-day bus tour of Georgia Harris has been under Republican pressure to do unscripted events since she launched her campaign aign more than a month ago Bloomberg's Lauren Davidson has more from Washington this is pretty big this will be among one of the larger audiences that she's had um since becoming the nominee probably it won't rise to the level of her DNC acceptance speech last week um but it'll be a pretty big audience and this will get clipped and you know moved around uh social media and the internet so people will uh be seeing this particularly if there is a large gas Bloomberg's Laura Davidson reports that appearance is set for tomorrow night at 9: wall fre time on CNN as a heat wave stretched into a second day this week residents in more than a half a dozen states are looking for ways to beat the heat AB B hot temperatures approaching triple digits the national weather service has issued excessive heat warnings and advisories in large patches of Illinois Iowa Missouri Wisconsin Michigan Indiana Ohio and Pennsylvania in just weeks after hosting the Olympics summer of sports in Paris begins its final chapter with the opening ceremony of the paralympic games more than 4,000 athletes with physical Visual and intellectual impairments will compete in 22 sports over the next 11 days Global News 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News now I'm mikae Lear and this is Bloomberg Tom Paul John mik Lear thanks so much an smci $94 uh I'm looking for the price 500 something and we're now down to 452 with a low of 440 we sort of found a bid but I really don't want to say so and you know if if I give it a weekly chart to put Paul you mentioned the uh the uh uh the history of this thing a moonshot yeah for years John Tucker mentioning it's up to 12200 and then sort of a churn here at 800 900 and the support I guess is 300 yeah and we're at 454 now don't Point me don't I'm making that up folks over my honey dece that Paul brought me from the open but you know the answer Paul is it's it's certainly broken recent support to be collegial yes I mean it is well below the 50 and 200 Moving Day average for those Charis and you pull up the RSI function relative strength uh it's right down at the bottom of support here so if it were to break kind of really almost right where we are here uh then could go further Lawrence McDonald tweeting out you know respected guy great author and all that he says it's it's nvidia's thirdd largest customer did they comment on it today I don't know yeah did they talk about it with that lllo and the six o'clock hour I don't know we'll see all of a sudden that interview a timely you're exactly right this is a important day for Global Technology that's the way L rolls it's 3:00 Pacific time I mean you know he's you know exactly get in before noon you know comes in Tesla salt driving Tesla does it's never you know it Parks itself uh Futures the Dow rather open the down Nega 23 spx3 the vix 15.65% markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash and I'm John Tucker in the Bloomberg Newsroom with this Bloomberg business Flash the major stock averages mixed to unchanged right now uh ahead of the earnings results from Nvidia uh let's actually start off with the worst performing stock at the S&P 500 again s a super microcomputer down over 18% delaying its annual Financial disclosures and this follows yday news that the short seller hinted being research releasing a critical report alleging glaring accounting red Flags Berkshire Hathaway shares on the move ahead of Warren Buffett's birthday no connection here the company topping a trillion dollar in market value for the first time koh's raising its full year profit Outlook the retailer trimming expanses reducing inventory levels amid a pullback from consumers Cole Shar is right now up 3.7% uh he also results from abber cromi and Fitch beating analysts has sales expectations for the sixth consecutive quarter uh not enough though to impress investors uh and those shares were they were lower in the early going right now the S&P 500 down 6 the Dow down 13 the NASDAQ 100 76 points lower we check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio I'm John Tucker and that's your Bloomberg business flash Paul and Tom John thanks for mentioning Burkshire Paul 20 years just took you know 2004 yeah up 600 57% up 10.7% per year solid you know he gets a lot of Apple cred but the you know it was legitimately Diversified yeah with some successes some failures like anybody else but I'm sorry 10.7% over 20 years uh gets it done yeah and I think just the question investors today have is simply what do you do with all that cash on your balance sheet yeah we're joining us right now then this a different conversation Tina BS Williams Jo joins us CEO of exponet and and what's wonderful about Tina is she's got legitimate public investment cred mostly out of Philadelphia and all Tina I've been dying to ask you this question for like three days I believe there's a collapse in real estate in cities I don't know which ones I don't have Philadelphia memorized but this building that building the other cratering is that going to affect the Taxation and the pen of public entities across this nation wow um look it it's uh the the short answer is yes I mean and in Philadelphia in particular our mayor has started along with some other companies Comcast Etc uh required uh workers to come back all you know five days um for the work week um and we are seeing actually Philadelphia I sit on the board of uh the business district here and has um relative to other SE cities has seen more healthy foot traffic than than others but yes I mean it does it will impact revenues which ultimately impact um pension fund contributions so from your perspective at exponents Asset Management does that impact the way you view the markets at all given maybe some of the demographic changes we've seen um so where that impacts our clients is Hash becomes particularly for some of the northeastern cities New York City certainly Philadelphia um they have more retirees and they have active participants which means they need they need to to um pay healthy benefits checks every month and in an environment in which liquidity has become more dare um right it it means that um it you have to rethink asset allocation strategies for example in private markets Etc well that's the heart of the matter Tina one final question we got to go to breaking news but Tina what is so important I think is the certitude of a 6040 portfolio and granted within public pensions maybe it's a little more Bond oriented in five years or in 10 years are we still going to see the structure of public Pension funds that we've known for Generations so public Pension funds have actually moved substantially away from the 6040 model I would say their uh public Equity allocation is more like 30 to 40% was the balance being in private markets debt or Equity what is different and refreshingly different um is that bonds are once again be going to become a diversifier for the equity book as inflation um you know be becomes more controlled and so that that has been an asset allocations challenge for not only public Pension funds but for um model driven defined uh Benefit Plan Tina so yeah Tina thank you so much we got to go to breaking news but we greatly appreciate it this morning with exponents Tina biles uh Williams our chief executive officer from Philadelphia Paul we don't have a bid yet on MCI we came out of the news an hour ago with the headline of challenges of 10K I'm sorry I don't have the headline in front of me because I'm watching The Price movement but to go back to last week I've got an over $600 pricing and with the short off Hindenburg I'm down to maybe 575 and then a free fall from 550 and we're moments ago a new low of 432 and that's way below where we we were at 929 Paul we're 20% below where we were at 929 Tom so um a tremendous two days here for super micro computer with the Hindenberg report yesterday and then with the announcement today that they're going to delay the filing of their 10K um you know as John Tucker reported earlier There Was You Know change in Auditors that or Adam F Fein Seth mentioned earlier a change in Auditors uh so that could have something to do with it but the timing is just amazing here for what was uh as John tker was reporting certain point this year the best performing stock out there so it was really called out as one of the AI plays out there AI winners and that very well may be certainly the case from a fundamental perspective but there's some some issues around this company they all different and so much of it is you know I don't mean to use the word retail but it has that feeling of when you go to the smci website there selling stuff yeah you know we're not we're not creating GPT here no so I I have trouble in the media folks where everybody bundles AI together into one conversation yep I mean Wu Jin ho just in some recent uh uh Bloomberg news reporting wuin ho an analyst at Bloomberg intelligence wrote that Hindenberg report could raise greater scrutiny on the server equipment makers accounting practices uh and customer transactions um he says that while the concerns that Hindenberg raised aren't new they might intensify the spotlight on client relationships especially given heightened us scrutiny of AI system sales to sanctioned countries and companies interesting to see we will continue to follow that story Into the t: CL our advantaged to have Michael rean with us today driving all of our Equity coverage off the desk Paul Sweeney and Mike rean I believe scheduled for 10 a.m. which works what again a little bit of tech weakness but once again the Dow green uh yeah the B your halfway green exactly $1 trillion dollar in market capitalization for uh halfway for the first time Invidia Tom again that'll be the news after the close and Carol master and Tim stenc they'll be breaking that news as it happens after the close here on Bloomberg Radio the stocks down about 1.4% here in in the early trading and Carol and Tim they're going to the U did they wear tennis whites I think they do they look solid I got a question when you were there yesterday how Rowdy was the crowd not not Rowdy because it was a day then the day crowd leaves and the night crowd comes in and those are two different crowds two different gigs when the when the Sun goes to get it can get pretty Rowdy in there U but most most of the players say they like it a lot some people they don't like it but a lot of players say it's really the most energetic environment they play in all year um and it's like no other environment anywhere so um it's and the fans are huge and the facilities get bigger the stadiums get bigger um it really is amazing what they're doing lot's going on we got to play Leed Zeppelin every day uh in in Boston 929 FM September 3rd lizan Saunders called up and said Tom classic rock just play Zeppelin 247 good morning I'm going to give you my I'm going to give you my love