Breaking Down Kansas Jayhawks Football Opening the 2024 Season vs Lindenwood Lions

on today's lockd on j-hawks KU football is back football season's back we preview the KU Lindenwood game why The Jayhawks should dominate on Thursday night you are locked on j-hawks your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day I'm Dereck Johnson you can find me on Twitter at D Johnson radio you can find our show here it's called locked on Jayhawks anywhere you get your podcast including on our YouTube page where you can like And subscribe to the show thank you for making locked on Jayhawks your first listen every day thank you to the every dayers catching each and every show and on today's episode we're previewing Kansas Lindon wood we're going to get into the matchup we'll get to our matchups of the game player matchups to watch Hawks to soar and we're going to pick a prop uh based on some FanDuel odds uh so thank you for tuning in the show of course we'll have a postcast after the game that you can catch either Thursday night or Friday morning whenever you get around to it today's episode of the show is brought to you by 5H Hour Energy which fixes tired fast with zero sugar in a convenient portable size it's the perfect pickme up for getting stuff done go to 5our energy.com and use promo code locked on CFB to receive 20% off your order this offer is only valid until September 30th on one order and cannot be used with other promotions go to 5our energy.com today so Kansas takes on Lindenwood this is a game that Kansas comes in is a heavy heavy favorite the line opened up at like 43 A2 on FanDuel and it's already moved to 44 and a half at least at time of recording by the time you listen to this watch this by the time uh gets the game time and it kicks off maybe it ends up even being more than that obviously some of the early money coming in on Kansas there and honestly I would be leaning toward taking Kansas minus the points even with that many in this game which I'll get two reasons why throughout the show today uh so tune in obviously um but this is the first ever matchup between these two teams this is also the first ever matchup against an FBS opponent for lyndenwood this's a lyndenwood program that went from Nia football moved up kept moving up eventually moved up to the FCS last season this is their second year in the FCS and now this is their first FBS opponent they went three and seven last year in the FCS in kind of a transition period for them I think all KU fans would now be comfortable with KU running up the score because this is David Batty's Alma moer but uh in all seriousness like this is one that Kansas should just Dominate and it's um really about a little bit of everything like when you look at some of these past you know FCS opponents that KU has played I don't know who would be considered worse between like this one or Rhode Island but from whatever that was like 2016 2015 2017 um it's in the discussion and Kansas is at a place is a program where they're better than they were in any of those past years and Kansas has more depth a lot of the players who are going to be playing if you're blowing them out in the third quarter the fourth quarter maybe they're young players but they're very talented they're three stars they're four stars they're guys who are going to be the next wave of dudes in Lawrence and that's going to set you up that you should be able to dominate this football game as Brian Borland said last week at a press conference this game is about this me kind of paraphrasing it's not as much about the opponent I think the way he said it is uh the game is about us like it's about us and what he basically meant by that is like if we take care of business if we do what we need to do we're gonna win this game right like our a game is going to be better than their aame our our aame you know ku's aame is going to be better than lyen Wood's or you know 100% game like kuc game might be able to win this game obviously you don't go into the game and Brian Borland's not going to stand on a chair and be like hey guys C game or better let's do it right that's not gonna happen but point being cand should be able to dominate um and as long as they don't do a lot of stupid things you're going to be able to blow out your opponent lyndenwood ranks outside the top 100 FCS teams according to Bill Connelly's preseason ESPN SP plus this is not a top 100 FCS team at least according to one metric on paper uh Bill Connelly actually same guy put together a list of the ESPN SP plus rankings with all teams from FBS FCS division two division three and nii schools interestingly enough Wisconsin Whitewater who lands liel used to coach and won a bunch of championships there Wisconsin Whitewater is ranked Higher by uh about 30 spots they're at 251 lynen Woods at 280 so when you add together all the FBS FCS all these other schools if you view Kansas's top 25 opponent it's a top 25 team against a team who's rated 280 like if we view that from a basketball basketball is even different because like from football there is the physical element basketball it's like you get too physical you're gonna or or like a team could just get hot from three but theoretically if Kanas is playing a team in basketball who's ranked 280th you'd be like okay the point spread's like 35 points you know um there are actually three division three schools there's a handfuls of division two schools that are ahead of lyndenwood and there's almost an NAIA school so point being Kansas is the much better team this should be domination Kansas shouldn't have to nor should they want to have to show off your full playbook in this game uh especially with Illinois lurking next nine- win unov after that tough Big 12 opener against West Virginia on the road after that big 12 play after that you don't want to have to show everything on film now should you maybe show a few things that can be on film that can um make the opposition have to worry about it spend extra time in scouting yeah that makes sense uh maybe you'll just want to work on a few Concepts in game but you're not going to like overly do it that makes sense but I know like earlier this week there was a a comment from Lance lipel talking about that um they're G to do everything in their power to win this game and I think that was a good way of wording it from Lance lipold and that um the idea that they're going to give a full Playbook is not real and I understand why Lance lold would say that and again I think he phrased it in a way where he's saying like we're going to give our all to win this game was kind of the way he phrased it which is like that's true they're going to try 100% but it's not going to be a full Playbook and yes again he's not going to come out there and say that like if if somebody in the media asks him po like like are you gonna use all your plays are you going to have full Playbook he might say yes but that's coach speak stuff that's not trying to give Bolton board material to the opposition that's trying to keep the opposition on their toes and preparing for everything right there are reasons why he would say it like that like I have no problem with why he would say it like that but from my perspective I'm telling you it's not going to be a full Playbook and the reason I I point out to that is just one look at like every other team who's going to be playing an FCS team that they should blow out probably not going to be a full Playbook now if you're Colorado playing North Dakota State you're Oklahoma State playing South Dakota State probably will be a full Playbook because those are going to be tough games they're like nine and a half Point favorites in each but um look back to two years ago right look back to the uh the game against Tennessee Tech how many times did Kansas run like the option triple option in that game there was one off the top of my head it might have been twice then fast forward to the next two weeks against West Virginia and Houston in 2022 how many times did they run option there like half the plays maybe not that much like a quarter of the plays I don't know the look back to last year how adventurous did they get with the Playbook how adventurous did they get with formations and motion right there's a few things they sprinkled in for the most part it was just hey wide Zone halfback dive you know basic place we're just going to run it down your throat you can't stop us because we're just better than you and that's what I expect in this game you should just be better than them you should just be able to run base plays and dominate but I think without a doubt whether Kansas wins this game by 70 whether they win by 40 um whether the starters play for a quarter a half three quarters it's just exciting to have KU football back it's exciting to have football back and General it's exciting to see some of these guys right whether it's Jaylen Daniels Devon Neil Kobe Bryant Melo doson some of these guys that you're seeing for the last time this year right guess in jaylen's case could be the last time um and in a situation where you know if you went back to 2020 end of the 20120 season you w even talk about like January of 2021 coming off an 0 and9 season off of covid if you went back and told yourself just wait man in three and a half years from now you're going to be having conversations with your friends co-workers whatever it is about that hey big 12's wide open Kansas could win it Kansas could make the college football playoff and a lot of the guys who are having their last go-around this year are as big of a reason as anything is why they've uplifted this program they've brought it to this point where if you would have said that to yourself three and a half years ago you would have sounded like a crazy person you would have been the ultimate Optimist that would have just been saying things just to say them to try to say something hopeful but now it's true in three and a half years later Kansas has a chance to do those things and this is the start of that even if it's not the biggest opponent it is the start of that and you get to see these players you don't know how long how many more games you're going to get to see each and every one of them enjoy what you can let's get to our matchups of the game players to watch Hawks sore all that on this episode of lock down j-hawks we're brought to you by five hour no better time for me to do this read than right now because you're going to Thursday night football game what does that mean probably have worked the next day on Friday right and the game starts at 7 could get over at 10 I don't know maybe it's a faster game could be over by 10:30 I don't know and then all of a sudden you're driving home right I I mean I don't know where you live maybe you live in Topeka and you're going from Kansas City Kansas to Topeka about an hour drive plus whatever traffic there is you might be getting home till midnight maybe a little later and you got to calm down from The Vibes of the game you need that energy boost the next next day to get through work and this could happen any day when you need that energy book or boost where Five Hour Energy is the brand that hardworking people like you have trusted for over 20 years to give them the alert energized feeling they need to get through a busy hectic day you always know where to find the 5H Hour Energy shots right at the cast register at nearly every convenience store drugstore and grocery store Nationwide if you go to 5H hour energy.com that is the number five hour energy.com and get some 5H Hour Energy product today you can use my promo code locked on CFB to receive 20% off your order this offer is only valid until September 30th on one order cannot be used without or with other promotions this code is not good on subscription orders so go to 5our energy.com today thank you that ders tuning in each and every episode don't forget you make your second listen locked on college football to get you ready for the big weekend ahead okay we're going to get to our match ups of the game do first second third fourth down then we'll get to our player matchups Hawks to soore players we think can set up to have a big game and then we'll add a new segment this year on our game previews which is a pickup prop with FanDuel Okay match ups of the game first down is special teams Lynden would actually uh even though they weren't a great team last season and aren't aren't expected to be by some of the metrics coming in this year they did rank 19th on special teams by Pro Football Focus among FCS teams a season ago and I think that's interesting because the first game of the season maybe you're more prone to special teams mistakes and so also you look at it where Kansas is heavy favorite over 40 Point favorite what is one way that the opposition could make you sweat it out a little bit early or or make things closer than it possibly could be it would be a special teams um sway like they have a kick return for a touchdown you muff a punt right that could be a 14-point swing and all of a sudden in instead of it being 28 to7 at halftime it's I don't know 21 to4 or something like that right where it's a much different game or or you just feel like things are a little bit tight um and for Kansas they had a good first half of the season last year on special teams but the back half of the Season you had too many mistakes all the blocked Pats against Oklahoma State some missed field goals in the second half after being uh more perfect in the first half the case State game obviously you think of at the end of the day you look at like ESPN SP plus they ended up about nationally average on special teams in terms of where they were so you're looking for improvement this year and this a good opportunity to show that against a team who actually was pretty good at it a season ago plus you got certain battles going on obviously tab Allen won the kicker battle but are we still going to see Charlie weinrich Andor Owen peper gtis come into a field goal or P situation to see what they can do seems like Damon Damon Greaves is settled in at the punter but what about the return spots like what does that look like so I think that's going to be an interesting matchup in this game second down KU figuring out their offensive line mockin naations in game and just Road grading Lynden Wood's defensive line um this is partially one of those things where it's like just worry about yourself and it's also just you know dominating the opponent uh so KU starting offensive line they're starting Bryce cable do at left tackle Logan Brad at right tackle Michael Ford at left guard Kobe Baines at Right Guard and then Bryce Foster at the center position but like they're going to rotate other linemen in like darl Simmons is going to play um Shane Bumgarner probably going to play Nolan gorica probably going to play and then you'll have other linemen play too as the game goes on and you're blowing out the opponent and everything but um Kansas kind of settled on it seemed like that rotation of of linemen a little bit later in the game and at least as far as like where the tackles are positioned uh with that kind of switch happening so what happens if it's just not working well and they decide to switch back or they decide to switch somebody else in some other position it's possible I'm not expecting it to happen but yeah just figuring out what's your best situation for different plays are and and you know what everybody is best at and seeing that on the field and seeing if Bryce Foster and Logan Brown can kind of raise the ceiling of this position unit and I look at last year Austin P ran for 270 yards on lyndenwood now Austin P was a I think they were a playoff team their their coach got parlayed that into a job at UTEP so they were a good team but like if you're taking Austin P from last year Kansas this year you're obviously taking Kansas especially the Run game four teams of the 10 that they played so 40% of the time notched over 200 yards rushing on this defense on the ground you should be able to Road grade them 300 yards plus rushing for KU is is kind of my expectation in this one and a big reason why I think the offensive line should be able to Road grade them third down KU pass rush versus the lyndenwood offensive line uh lyndenwood was not good in pass blocking a season ago they gave up five or more sacks on three occasions which is a lot they gave up a high of seven sacks in a game last season and they only kept the QB without a sack twice so in eight of their 10 games they gave up at least a sack they gave up three or more sacks in six of their 10 games so more than half the time more often than not they were giving up three or more sacks in a game and that was without playing an FBS opponent well enter kuu who there were some questions about who is going to provide the passour after losing and Austin Booker and those things still exist coming into the season but it feels like at least on paper or at least the feeling coming into the season is that KU has a bunch of a group of hungry pass rushers that have potential and have ceiling to make this thing work whether that's Dean Miller DJ Warner Dak Brinkley by job um the the strong defensive ends and Jeremy Robinson Dylan woodkey some good defensive tackles that they're going to be able to make this thing work that they're going to be able to have the requisite pass rush to get it done and as much as if the offensive line and defensive line dominates this game we're going to point to that and say good they should but that doesn't necessarily mean you'll dominate against Illinois and West Virginia and some of these other teams it has been a bit of a precursor the past couple years Kiren Johnson had himself a good game against South Dakota um in 2021 in Lance Li bol's first year Lonnie Phelps had four tfls three sacks two years ago Austin Booker I think had a sack and and had maybe like a couple quarterback hits I I don't remember if he had the sack or not but a couple quarterback hits and had a couple real nice pass rush moves or a quick get offs the line that it was noticeable point being if you if one of these players has three sacks in this game doesn't guarantee that they're going to have three sacks again all season long but what it does tell me is that see in a real game situation in a real game setting they're ready to go and they have juice so how much it translates to the games the rest of the Season you don't totally know but it does at least give you an indication that you're on the right path and so I I am very curious who those end up being and if KU can can kind of dominate there uh fourth down confident not cocky um KU should be confident this doesn't just apply for this game where you're over a 40 Point favorite this season you've accomplished a lot you you've broughten this program to a much much much much much I could say that a million times better place from where it was at the same point in time there's that line you don't want to overlook an opponent you don't want to overlook anybody even this one so just take care of business focus on you do your job every play and you'll find yourself pretty high up on the scoreboard at the end of the game in what could be a 4050 60 Point Victory if you're KU uh to finish up players to watch Hawks the soar pick a prop unlocked on Jayhawks this episode is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook we're going to do our pick a prop which will have some stuff from FanDuel or normally will each and every week and you've heard us talk a lot about FanDuel America's number one sports book well we have something a little different for you now through September 22nd all FanDuel customers can bet $5 and get a three-week free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV then with a YouTube TV base plan you'll be able to watch every regular season Sunday afternoon out of Market game all you need is a Google account in a current form of payment you can cancel anytime just visit fanduel.com lockon to download America's number one Sportsbook FanDuel the official Sportsbook partner of the locked on podcast Network we're also brought to you by Factor fuel up with factors no prep No Mess meals meet your Wellness goals thanks to the menu of Chef crafted meals with options like calorie smart Protein Plus and keto Factor freshes never frozen meals are dietitian approved and ready to eat in Just 2 minutes so no matter how busy you are you'll always have time to enjoy nutritious great tasting meals make today the day that you Kickstart a new healthy routine what are you waiting for they have 35 different meals more than 60 add-ons to choose from every week you'll always have a new flavor to explore I love a lot of the chicken dishes the pork dishes are really good too um it's super easy to make and and for me as a parent sometimes you don't always have the time to cook a extravagant meal and so me and my wife were chowing down some of those the other week it made life so easier and you just would have thought that like a chef made them for you in your kitchen uh head toact meals.com loock on50 and use code locked on College 50 to get 50% off your first box plus 20% off your next month that's code locked on College 5 Factor meals.com loock on50 so you get 50% off your first box plus 20% off your next month while your subscription is active finishing up with this episode of Locked on Jayhawks with our player matchups our Hawks and sore pick a prop don't forget we're going to have a uh post uh game show which will uh be up shortly after the result for KU so you can tune in to that Thursday night you can tune in to that Friday morning whatever you'd like so make sure you are subscribed to the show anywhere you podcast here with locked on J Hawks okay our player matchup to watch we're going to go with Luke Grim K receiver versus taen balock so ton Blalock is a defensive back for uh um lynen wood he's a former transfer from Sam Houston State which is uh used to be an FCS team for a while now as an FBS team in their second year of the FBS he plays safety he plays some slot and he plays some hybrid stuff for lyndenwood at least he did last year so I'm kind of Assuming he's going to do the same this year he had the fifth most tackles on the team last season he was one of the better Defenders on the team he's a playmaking safety he had three interceptions last year which led the team so there's some good things about him but if you look into his Prof ball Focus coverage grades he was targeted 31 times last year on those 31 he allowed a 71% completion rate that's not great he allowed over 15 yards per catch that's not great and he allowed five touchdowns and had three penalties neither one of those is that great um but because the three interceptions very much Boomer bust right so he can make a swing play his way or he might give up a big one the other way so for Kansas to win this matchup especially if he's in the slot you think of him on Luke grimel lot avoid the pick to him to where he can Feast maybe have a double move maybe have some plays where he can play off his aggressiveness and work that into an advantage for you and if you don't give him the chance to Feast then you should be able to feast and make it famine for them Hawks to sore for KU on offense we're gonna go Devon Neil and Daniel highshaw I don't know how many times Devon Neil is gonna carry the ball in the FCS game I mean we've seen past FCS games where Devon Neils had single-digit carries I want to say in the Tennessee Tech game didn't he have like four carries or something like that and he's actually had a touchdown on his first carry the last two years on the first Carry of the Season against FCS opponent so we'll see if he can do that again in uh this one but I went back and looked at Jeff Grimes past games against FCS opponents now I don't know how much of the player usage is based on like the running back's coach versus the offensive coordinator versus the head coach versus all three of them or something like that um maybe it's different at each College but from what you can see with Jeff Grimes from really the last handful of games he played against FCS opponents his lead back wasn't getting 20 carries or something like that but they were getting 10 12 14 carries in the game which would certainly be more than Devon Neil's kind of gotten in the last couple FCS games which means if Devon Neil gets 10 12 carries in this game he could legitimately have 150 200 yards rushing at the very least you kind of expect 100 so I do wonder if the prop on this because as of right now as I'm recording on Thursday night the props are not up which had imagine because it's week one of the Season uh that's just taking longer to get into with making sure everybody's healthy and who's going to be playing and what the props should be um so you can probably look at FanDuel and they're up by now um maybe Devon Neils would be lower because they're not expecting him to have that many carries maybe it's it's one where he is uh really high because they are expecting him to just dominate against an FC's opponent I don't totally know but I do think he's set up to have a big game and then if he doesn't have as many carries or even if he does have 10 to 12 there's still going to be a lot more other ones to have that means probably big games for Daniel haaw and some of the other running backs excited to see Harry Stewart and Savon Morrison too defense Hawks theore we're gonna go with DJ Withers been hearing about him all Camp long that he's having a really good camp he's been a guy who seemingly has progressed each and every year now you're playing a worse offensive line than you've been going up against in Camp right at least you would hope um go out there and dominate the game right go out there and get a sack it's harder for interior guys to get sacks but that would be a pretty big deal if he does and uh you look at some of the you know we talked about it on past shows than you the every day are tuning into this but the lynen wood pass blocking and run blocking grades were not great a season ago they didn't have a lot of individuals get above 60 in either run blocking or pass blocking a season ago he should be able to dominate okay pick a prop so we're gonna I I love ice cream so uh we're going to do Scoops and sprinkles so scoop is our big one and then the sprinkle is one that you know maybe a little less invested in but maybe has a little bit more outlandish odds possibly so again the props are not out as of when I'm recording I'm I'm sure they will be out closer to kickoff here uh just with this one kind of being the exception so this is me just basing it on the spread right now the overunderish 44 and a half what that tells you is that basically FanDuel is is saying the game score should be somewhere around uh oh gosh what would that be minus 44 a half so you're looking at like 52 to 7 right I mean that'd be covering 45 points that'd get you to 59 points so if you're looking at 52 to7 that means the over under for Kansas points would be like basically 52 I'll go over that and if I can even find an ALT line where it's like 55 maybe even 60 I might be interested in that but let's just say for the scoop here going over on the Kansas points and maybe if that's not even available you just take the over on the game um so again as I said I went back and looked at Jeff Grimes past performances in FCS games again this isn't all on the offensive coordinator but 2023 Baylor was an anomaly that was just not a good offense three previous Jeff Grimes offenses against their FCS opponents 2022 Baylor scored 69 2021 Baylor scored 60 and 2020 BYU also scored 66 points so they were able to continue piling on the score and maybe that happens for Kansas in a game where you are clearly the better team so that's my pick a prop Kansas over on points and then for the scoop for the sprinkle we're gonna go with Daniel highshaw two touchdowns um I'm open to if this is like plus 200 on like one touchdown I would just take that but I'm assuming one touchdown is going to be like plus 120 140 somewhere in that I think two touchdowns you'll be able to get good odds uh I think the fact that he is a power running back he'll be in a lot especially if Devon Neil gets limited carries he'll have an opportunity also I'd be interested in if it's there Harry Stewart to get a touchdown in this game so those are the props for you're looking at all right that'll do it for this episode of Locked on J Hawks we'll be back later tonight slf Friday morning for a postgame recap of whatever happens between Kansas and lywood wood we're finally here football's back KU football's back hope if you're going to the game you have a great time you stay safe if you're watching at home enjoy that too and we'll see you next time with LJ