NFL Fantasy Football ADP Is Broken Here Is How To Exploit It

oh hello and welcome to what we talking about with Jamie Jake I am him NFL fantasy football's ADP is absolutely broken here's how to exploit it so the reason you're watching this is you probably have an NFL app platform Fantasy Football Draft coming up congratulations to you the best time of year when we're drafting these fantasy football teams everybody's undefeated and everyone's having a good time so cheers to you and cheers to me cuz we're going to talk about how we are going to get you to win that fantasy football league with these amazing values in ADP ADP of course stands for average draft position it is the rank or the value associated with every player that can be drafted in fantasy football so what I'm going to do is I'm going to go round by round and I'm going to combine my personal rankings and the sharpest app on fantasy football Underdog fantasy football and compare them to what the NFL ADP is I've be getting a lot of questions about why we're using Underdog fantasy football the reason is is because it's the best sharpest historically ADP and the reason it's historically sharp is because every draft has money behind it at least $3 behind every draft that is done in the underdog platform so the ADP isn't determined by people just doing mock drafts or home leagues they are professionals doing these drafts every single day and they're setting the ADP it's not perfect no ADP is perfect but the underdog ADP is historically pretty reliable now the underdog ADP and my ADP is based off three wide receiver or two Flex so if you're in two Flex you're basically in a three wide receiver league if you can start four wide receivers each week you're in a three wide receiver One Flex or a two Flex league if your league is two running back two wide receiver One Flex it will bump up the value of some of those running backs not really going to matter to you either way because of the way we're going to attack this strategy so let's get right into it with round one round one the only real land mine you have to be aware of is saquin going 10 overall on NFL he's going 18th in Underdog which is about where I have him ranked as well I would highly recommend trying to get a top tier running back maybe two in the first two rounds because after that the wide receiver values later on in the fourth round and later are in same if you have the option to choose where you're drafting from I would either go first overall and get yourself some Christian mcaffrey or go somewhere in the middle and hope you can land a Bree hall or a bejan Robinson who are going seventh and eighth so I would go one or I would go six if you are towards the end of the first round I think Jonathan Taylor jir Gibbs is a great option for you to either draft like a Garrett Wilson AJ Brown puka AA in the early or in the late first round and then get an early early second round whichever running back Falls to you some other second round guys you can get in case of emergency is Kiren Williams and Pacho kind of going in the middle of that second round some great values in the second round wide receiver position Garrett Wilson going 13 versus 10 I love Garrett Wilson I think he might just have like an 1,800 yard breakout season now that he's finally got a quarterback thrown in the football some landmines you do need to be aware of do not draft Derrik Henry 16 versus 30th overall on Underdog etn saying thing I wouldn't be targeting him 20 versus 40 on Underdog Travis Kelce Patrick Mahomes 2324 in the end of that second round they're going 38 and 43 respectively so I would definitely stay away from the Chiefs those are the highest rankings I've seen for Mahomes and Kelce across all platforms so first second round hopefully you have at least one running back two would probably honestly be better if you can get two kind of hero running backs and just don't worry about it until the eighth nth 10th round I think that's a great way to approach these drafts depending on how it falls to you obviously don't let guys like Garrett Wilson fall into the early second round because in the third round you do have one more shot at the running back position Devon a chain he's a little bit too expensive for me in Underdog he's going 20th overall but getting him at 30 in the third round in your NFL leagues I think is a fine value to get him he could blow up on the scene and he's a guy who can definitely win you some weeks with one or two big breakout runs dvo Samuel is an amazing value here with the iuk situation maybe auk has a little bit of slow start to the season after he missed all of Camp maybe he has a soft tissue injury like a hamstring early on when he's ramping back up in a full participation Assuming he's even with the 49ers as I'm recording right now he has not resigned yet CD lamb just got resigned so we'll see about that big land mine you do need to be aware of though Rashad white 33 versus 59 on Underdog and that's about where I have I have a little bit lower than that even in my personal rankings inefficient last year I really think somebody from that backfield is going to start taking Snaps from Rashad Wright it's not just going to be the Rashad white show three down back like he was last year to be fair to him though new center maybe he's a little bit more efficient as a runner great as a passer so in full PPR he's OB obviously be ranked a little bit higher but in half PPR formats which is what we're talking about right now I would definitely not recommend taking Rashad white there in the third round in the fourth round you just got to take one of these wide receivers so Jaylen Wadd DK metf even if Debo and Anan are gone in the third round go ahead and reach on these guys and get jayen Wadd or DK jayen watad 44 versus 19 on Underdog so he's going early second round and I love getting him there at a per route run basis Jaylen W was extremely efficient last season was a little bit banged up and I get it could be banged up again this year but for the most part had a pretty clean camp in terms of injury he sat up a couple of days with some something that sounded like a undisclosed like tightness sort of thing so nothing to be too too concerned about there same thing with DK mattf 46 versus 29 DK could just be I think he will be a top 10 wide receiver in the league this year so that 29 is a little bit lower in the rankings than my personal rankings have them so at this point hopefully you have two running backs two wide receivers and you can do whatever you need to in thei fifth round a couple of landmines to be aware of Alvin Kamar he's going in the fifth round he's going 72 overall versus 49 on NFL DJ Moore Great Value 50th overall he's going 31 and I think that's way too low on Underdog DJ Moore I believe has top 10 potential he caught for almost 1400 yards with Justin freaking field storm the football and you think Caleb Williams who's supposed to be the second coming of Andrew Luck everyone said it since he was high school is going to be worse as a passer than Justin Fields DJ Moore barring injury I think has an incredible another breakout season 1,200 yards plus which is really all you need first shot at the quarterback position here in the fifth round DJ Moore is a guy you're probably not gonna have to reach on him because you got DK and Jaylen wild going in the fourth but if those guys are gone you're in a sharp room go ahead and reach on DJ Moore in the fourth and grab yourself some Anthony Richardson going 52 overall on NFL 5 7 on UD K Cade also can be your first tight end taken if you take a k Cade in the fifth round or pretty much any of the tight ends that I'm going to talk about through this whole video you're kind of done in that position for virtually all home leagues unless you have some crazy settings which if you do leave some comments in the section and we'll kind of hash it out there strategy wise but you got can K you also have Pitts in this round cancade lost some Target competition over there in Buffalo I don't see a lot of those guys really competing with K Kade in terms of targets over there and pittz same thing new quarterback better situation he's going 57 versus 61 so about flat for both of these guys appropriately priced and if you need your first tight end or if one of them fall into the sixth round snatch them up when when other people are taking kickers another big name to be aware of in the fifth round neighbors 59 versus 24 so admittedly it's a little bit difficult for me to justify a quarterback or a tight end pick here when you can get neighbors in the fifth round so hopefully you know somebody takes him before you can grab them but neighbors would be on the top of my Hit List along with DJ Moore in this neck of the woods but if they're both gone or if one of those guys fall out of the fifth round cancade Pitts or Anthony Richardson go ahead and take him there in the sixth round more wide receiver value tank Dell 61 on NFL 34th over overall in Underdog a decent value here it is technically a full round of a reach but I think it's appropriate here in the NFL platform if you just totally missed on the running back position or you want to just be done with it for the rest of the draft Aaron Jones in case of emergency he's going 82 overall on Underdog 70 on NFL I think that's a fine pick to make where you're getting him here in the sixth round if you do have a wide receiver room that's just full up already you already went like four wide receivers you don't need tank Dell on your team take Aaron Jones you'll be happy with it this is hilariously so apparently where kickers are starting to go in the sixth round of these drafts and the kickers that are going early in at least in terms of according to four for four where I'm getting all my numbers from kickers going in the sixth round doesn't make any sense even if you have super Juiced up Kicker points like you're getting like 12 points or something for a 50- yard field goal still doesn't make any sense be drafting kickers in the sixth round unless you have like a two three kicker League just doesn't make sense whatsoever even if you have Juiced up Kicker numbers I wouldn't even think about taking a kicker until the 13th round same thing with defense around 12 over 13 and the three defenses that I really like this year because they have a good start to their schedule is Browns even though they have the Cowboys week one after that they have a pretty easy schedule through five weeks Raiders have an incredibly easy schedule you can just draft the Raiders if they're okay defensively you can start them for like the first eight weeks of the season it's kind of crazy and same thing with the Steelers you can start them pretty reliably for the first six weeks of the season and not have to worry about it so if you can get one of those guys one of those teams go ahead and grab them if not don't worry about it too much getting into the seventh round here Keenan Allen 78 overall on NFL 58 on Underdog he is falling significantly just because Camp reports I think it's total overreaction to limited preseason snaps very limited effort out of Keenan Allen in those snaps in my opinion I would definitely not worry about any of that um Keenan Allen if Rashid rice is off the board which we'll talk about in the eighth round definitely reach on Rashid rice here in round seven or round six he's not going to be suspended in my opinion from everything that we're hearing he's going to have clear path to a top 20 season and you're getting them here allegedly in the seventh round I would especially if you have a somewhat competent a somewhat sharp League that you're in people are going to be aware of Rashid rights not GNA be a secret anymore I'm happy taking him two three rounds ahead of time so in the fifth round I'd start looking for Rashid rice and that's ahead of virtually everybody I talked about for the fifth and the sixth round so get your good values on them but rasid rice in the seventh round a great option Keenan Allen also a great option in that round and this is when defenses are starting to go and I don't know if this is just like a glitch in the system system or what but the first two defenses according to NFL is bears and Bengals I don't know if they just had a bunch of fantasy drafts in those cities and that's why those teams are elevated or I don't know I don't know why in the world they would be that elevated they're not good defenses so stay away from bears and Bengals go with the guys that I discussed in that in that kind of 12th 13th round range in round eight naagi Harris is pretty flat especially with Jaylen Warren having a little bit of a hamstring issue now reportedly he's going to be ready week one ready to go week one but Naji Harris I think Great Value where you're getting them here so that's kind of what I'm talking about get your one or two running backs early if nii Harris is your second running back on your team you're GNA be fine don't worry about it especially if you followed my other advice getting those wide receivers worst case scenario is you'll have to do a little bit of work trading one of your Elite wide receivers in week two or three for a running back that someone over paid for Rashid rice like we just discussed going 42 overall on Underdog 88 so he is like double value in the NFL platform at the moment and Rising another good value in my opinion he's a little bit lower in Underdog and I think it's a mistake Tony Pard I think is going to be the bellal for admittedly a rough offense but that's kind of in the cards already kind of calculated into this ADP he's going 89 on NFL 102 on Underdog and I'm totally fine with reaching on him there for your second or third running back on your team if your wide receiver room is already stack stack stacked which it should be if you've watched this video also important note in that round reach on Xavier worthy if you don't need a running back in the eighth round reach on Xavier worthy he's currently going to the ninth round he's probably going to be the number two target over there he had like 24% Target share when Patrick Mahomes was on the field and he ran basically every single route when Patrick Mahomes is on the field in preseason he was kind of the number one guy there or behind rasid rice in terms of targets on day one in OTAs he was drafted there to be that guy the field stretcher I don't think Kelsey or Rashid Rit are much Target competition for him because they basically play the opposite position uh they're receivers at the end of the day but Xavier Worthy is the field stretcher he's going to be the the Deep route guy on the football field and it's going to open up a lot of passing lanes for Travis Kelce and Rashid rice it's just going to be a absolutely horrible offense to try and defend and if Patrick Mahomes has a 5,000 yard passing season which I'm kind of expecting him to have Rashid rice or Xavier Worthy is gonna have like 1400 yards so getting him in the eighth round with a reach is absolutely great again seventh round of Rashid rice has gone get yourself some Xavier worthy you're not going to regret it by the end of the season I don't think uh so getting into the ninth round like we said Xavier worthy 100 versus 55 on Underdog so again like a double 2x value basically there and some quarterbacks so you know I've not really mentioned a lot of quarterbacks they're a little bit too expensive for me early on outside of Anthony Richardson if someone Falls you want to create a stack that's fine do what you got to do do what you like to do but Jaden Daniels Jared Goff in the ninth round I think is too good of a value to pass up on 104 versus 96 and Jared Goff is 107 versus 125 so not great value on Jared gof but I'm a Believer in him he's a little bit higher up in my rankings and Jaden Daniels you're just getting a hell of a value there if Jaden Daniels just stays healthy through the whole season it's G to be a smash value because he's gonna run the football for 800 900 yards this year um so even if he struggles as a passer with st with scary Terry still there it's not really going to matter in terms of fantasy football production you know win loss record might not look great but those fantasy points will look great at the end of the season another option at running back in the ninth round Devon single ter which is another reason to reach on Xavier worthy and Mari rice because you kind of want these Tony Pard Naji Harris um Gus Edwards Devin single ter in the eighth and nth round and you only get one pick so I would I would go ahead and do that um or if you have the option to just trade back out of like the sixth and seventh round and stack stock up with a lot of picks here in the eighth and Ninth round because there's a lot of good values here Deon Singletary will be the number one there the bcow there I think he's good at football I think that kind of gets not talked about enough and I think the Giants think he's good at football he's gonna get the ball a lot what if the Giants are just like a slightly better offense with Malik neighbors now in the squad and Daniel Jones back to being healthy and confident Gus Edwards more of the same thing La a little bit of a reach in terms of ADP like a full round reach but again he's higher up in my rankings than the underdog rankings are and Gus Edwards 108 versus 120 on Underdog I think is a great option even if he's just your second running back on your roster getting him in the ninth round as long as you have a guy from the first through third round like worst case scenario you have aan and then you have Gus Edwards you're sitting pretty and worst case scenario you're you're hunting on the waivers in week one which is you know what we're going to be doing anyway so go ahead and grab Gus Edwards as a a little bit of a sleeper breakout candidate here in the ninth round and in the 10th round which is the final round I'll cover here on this video Zack Moss Great Value I think he'll be the number one in Cincinnati and if that's the case if he earns that bcal role or the goal line role in Cincinnati for what I assume will be a good offense assuming Joe burrow stays healthy Zach Moss is just going to be Joe Mixon but probably a little bit better I think he's better than Joe Mixon at football in terms of like fantasy football you know maybe Joe mixon's better pass block or whatever I don't care I don't get points for that I think Zack Moss gonna score a lot more fantasy points than Joe Mixon will this year and his new landing spot down there in Houston another quarterback you can grab here two is a great value pretty flat from both Platforms in terms of the difference in ADP uh but a better value in my opinion Caleb Williams so if you did get Keenan Allen DJ Moore early on pair him up with Caleb Williams and go ahead and reach on him into the ninth round I would say just to make sure you got him Caleb Williams I think he gonna run the ball a lot more I try not to read too much into how the guys look in preseason when who knows is chasing after him but Caleb Williams looked a little bit faster than I was expecting him to look on a football field end of the day speed to speed and I think it might carry over into the NFL and if he is a guy who's getting 500 rushing yards a season on top of over 4,000 passing yards which is kind of what I'm projecting him to do in this really good offense Sky's limit for Caleb Williams he could be top five quarterback year one no problem so if you did spend a premium Draft pick on one of his receivers get Caleb Williams in the 10th round Brian Thomas probably the best value numbers wise he's going 71 overall in Underdog he's going 137 on the NFL platform there's really no reason to be super concerned about Brian Thomas at this ADP at this value I would be fine if you wanted to reach on him a little bit 137 versus 71 on Underdog Brian Thomas was running ahead of Christian Kirk in two wide receiver sets in preseason I expect that to kind of not necessarily hold true but they're running him there for a reason he's going to be proba the number two target over there in Jacksonville you know it might take till week three or four to pan out but if he's your fifth or six wide receiver on your roster H who cares right you know I'll I'll stash him I'll hold on to him do not cut Brian Thomas if he has a first three or four bad weeks of the Season you know Rashi rice last year for example he took until about week five to break out and I expect maybe Brian Thomas to project in the same manner okay so don't panic on him if he's not producing right away drop somebody else when you're doing these waiver pickups in your home leagues Matt Stafford great quarterback value here if you did end up with puka at the end of the first round or if he fell into the second round I think that's great PA him with Matt Stafford 138 versus 146 and another good tasty little value here kind of like a free sleeper for you Jerome Ford Nick chub is out sounds like their one of their running backs from the Colts whose name escap me is starting on IR Dante Foreman is going to be kind of like the number two there I don't think he's going to threaten drone Ford too much Drone for was good last year and a lot of people forget is that offensive line you know everyone thinks Cleveland Brown's offensive line best offensive line in the league well they were pretty banged up last year by the end of the season they had like nobody outside of Joel bonio starting for them who started the season with them so getting Jerome Ford here who I think will be better on a per touch basis than he was last year here I think Nick chub isn't going to be full go until like week eight so and he's Jerome Ford's still going to be involved in on the team when Nick chub does come back you know when players come back from bad knee injuries of course they're going to ramp him up correctly but still increased risk for soft tissue injuries calf hamstring groin that we see in the preseason a lot when the players are getting in shape that could happen too and you could just have a Bellow in jome Ford with a great offense with a great offensive line for basically the whole season so getting him here in the 10th round Great Value especially if you faded the running back position early on because he'll give you that first six to eight weeks of the season of great opportunity in terms of touches and touchdown opportunity and you can find somebody else off waivers later on in the season if Nick chub does truly kind of take over like we're all expecting him to and that's it for the episode if you would like to see what goes on on round 11 on definitely check out my channel for my sleeper episode where I go through my 10 favorite sleepers I don't think I talked about too many of them here outside of I think Gus Edwards and Jerome Ford was on that list in the video so check that out for your late round picks don't take your defense or your kicker until round 13 or 14 and on this platform there's still great values to get guys I didn't talk about yet so go ahead and check out that video thank you for watching I have also done this the same video for the sleeper platform for Yahoo and for CBS so if you or one of your friends has one of those drafts coming up make sure to check out that video as well because it is very very different from platform to platform CBS was wild so if you want to be a little bit entertained I think that would be the most entertaining one to watch just so you can kind of see what the adps on that platform are all about um I don't know if anybody still uses that platform I guess we'll see um if anybody watches that episode but that that's a good one to watch um so please share it if you liked it please share it with a friend um if you didn't like it share it with an enemy and leave a comment below leave a question for anything that you have I will definitely get back to you really really quickly so check your bell icon on your YouTube app thanks for watching we'll see you next time [Music] l