Martin Shkreli Looks At The Latest Tesla Earnings Report (Q2 2024)

let's do Tesla real quick just because just because right Tesla's at 190 right now yeah it's kind of been choppy for the last you know several years Tesla doesn't do well they of course they do SEC filings everyone has to but they do the investing letter a little bit differently they don't really do press releases I should say so tell is a weird one cuz you have this cult of personality around Elon which is well well deserved in a lot of ways he's like the best capitalist the world's ever had arguably maybe the world's maybe the best technologist the world's ever had I don't know what do you guys think something like that um let's see so Tesla has around 30 in cash 600 million market cap 600 billion market cap um if any of you guys have questions you can jump on the Twitter spaces and I I I can take questions live um as well or if you have some something to say I guess yeah so Tesla has like 20 23 billion in cash basically IM immaterial compared to the market cap of 600 bill I actually did update did they report Q2 yet does anybody know yes they did think was pretty crummy right [Applause] let's see so if if you haven't watched The Lex fredman um interview I would strongly suggest that um Lex did his fifth interview with Elon it was quite good so wow Automotive down 7% year-over-year wow [Music] H let's let's look into that a little more OKAY model 3 Model y production down 16% 386 just get all these numbers in the right places 386 576 so that's the first production number below 400k in in a while but still quite a bit above you know it's still it's still growing quite a bit it still has grown quite a bit maybe I should put it that way and there isn't a huge reason to be too scared yet um but it is a little worrisome um for [Applause] [Music] oh it's interesting that they're starting to disclose a little bit more maybe than I thought which is great lithium Refinery wow okay financial statements so I think the kitchen synced kind of like q1 they had a huge regulatory credit quarter we can adjust for that the h huge huge energy quarter from this the old acquisition maybe that's finally starting to do well um so one of the things I like to look at for Tesla is just like Automotive gross margins cuz it's kind of the thing you look at for any traditional car maker and I don't know if it's the company that needs to is the company needing to do like a product refresh or what [Applause] but it's [Music] um it's certainly not negative um but it's uh it's it's not that inspiring either you would think they would be scaling scaling up that's the whole point of the Tesla growth story at least on the car side on the software side and on the robot side that's those are kind of the call options but they're expensive call options at a 600 billion market cap it's hard to want to pay for that right so you can get Ford um or some other auto company that you know maybe less efficient maybe Toyota um fors market cap is 37 billion GM is 45 billion Toyota is a little more realistic maybe it's 257 billion so you know it's hard to compare Tesla to those companies because those companies kind of suck but would you pay a hundred billion doll market cap for like poorly defined AI company I don't think so I think that's too expensive um scody you're you're welcome to talk anytime you want um so anyway let's keep looking at Tesla because that's what was asked of me by my godell subscribers godell is my alternative to Bloomberg please feel free to sign up um let's see here I haven't caught up with what like Tesla's actual plan is for expansion let me uh it'll probably be in here somewhere so let me glance at that too um I don't follow Autos or I mean I should follow Tesla a little more closely because it really at this point is an AI company um with an auto company attached and even the auto side is quite a bit of AI there's a funny video that I saw and again I I like Elon um a lot but there's a funny video I saw of Elon promising self-driving cars every year for the last de deade and um look engineering is difficult it takes time technology is often not ready uh so but it's a funny video If you haven't seen it what's up llal how are you my Turkish Queen um I'm sing out here guys um so yeah I mean gross margin for Tesla has been pretty low for the last like year uh it reached a peak of 29% when kind of Revenue peaked as well so we had that like a super normal um situation there I don't know if his robots are fake that that's a big accusation um on the cash flow side Tesla did 36 in cash flow which is pretty good number with capex though it the free cash flow is pretty pretty di Minimus and TTM free cash flow is 1.8 which on a 600 billion cap is a little little crazy 300 times earnings no big deal um right so the market cap for the Enterprise Value is 584 billion so 2 billion in free cash flow to support 584 billion is a lot but you know I'm thinking that R&D line it's amazing that R&D line isn't that big um that's going to say you can you can chop that R&D line a little bit but you wouldn't you'd maybe add another billion it's not that much so it's a little tricky let's see let's read through this a little energy storage records that was the Solar City acquisition yeah you never count Elon out but you also shouldn't give huge market cap um for nothing and the fact that he wants to be in waymo's business now when he could have been in wh Mo's business for a long time it's kind of interesting you know that the robo taxi side because Cruz and weo have been around for a while and I think maybe he's just been planning it but now is the time to announce it um it's interesting they don't break out cybertruck either I don't know I I personally wouldn't buy it just because that's how I am um I'd probably buy Tesla let me take a look shout up kitty my cat's whining I'd buy Tesla like a little lower maybe a lot lower I don't know at 100 bucks it's probably a great buy I'm not sure i' buy it at this price unless there was material rebound and revenue but if there was a material rebound on Revenue the price would be a lot higher so is pretty tricky one of the things that concerns me is that you know in most businesses you don't have to look at free cash flow um but in this case they have massive amount of capex so like looking at free cash is pretty important I don't know it's it's not it's not that bad it could be an okay buy here actually I think at 100 it's a it's I would say it's a screaming buy but at 190 it's like an okay buy but you also have to assume the auto business comes back Optimus Works cyber truck grows Robo Taxi Works then you can get a pretty healthy return and those things don't have to happen night they they could just happen relatively slowly uh musk is not a [ __ ] nothing could be further from the truth so I'm trying to think of of ways to estimate deliveries during the quarter Wall Street seems to get that fairly right um thanks lehan Kitty does sound like she's hungry okay let's look at the V vehicle capacity side so Tesla sort of like put this narrative out there that vehicle capacity is or like vehicle demand is is basically infinite for their products I don't think that's really necessarily true anymore they certainly seem to deliver everything they they make it's fairly impressive so let's let's take a look at this we continue to add to our vehicle lineup globally introducing the including the introduction of the new model 3 and metal y Trims and additional paint options for the sexy lineup after a sequential decline in production in Q2 we expect a sequential increase in production in Q3 that's good [Applause] all right so Q3 might be pretty good for Tesla [Applause] still not sure they're covering capex that well let's continue here refresh model 3 ramp continued successfully including the introduction of model 3 Performance in Q2 and longrange rear roll Drive inel why we also continue to qualify more model 3 trims for the IRA tax credit cyber production more than tripled sequentially and remains on track to achieve profitability by the end of the year well that's interesting so that me might mean that Q2 earnings were suppressed because of cybertruck which is the kind of suppression you like as well as q1 uh which is the kind of suppression everyone would like expanding your business briefly some brief brief um losses so that's that's a little more bullish yeah I mean it's probably around 100 times like actual earnings which isn't so bad given given how Elon grows and the opportunity even in electric conversion and stuff like that so it's probably it's probably not a bad buy I would probably own a little bit of Tesla at the very least shh stupid cat it's heartening that their the Tesla's market share is still quite low this cat okay so model 3 Y in Shanghai has gone from 750 to 950 model y 350 to 375 in Berlin model Y in Texas is the same cybertruck oh that's weird it used to say 300,000 for cybertruck but now it's I guess 125,000 h our company is currently between two major growth waves the first one began with the global expansion of 3y platform and we believe the next one will be initiated by advances in autonomy and introduction of new products including those built on our next Generation vehicle platform in 2024 our Vol vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023 as our teams work on the launch of the Next Generation vehicle and other products in 2024 the growth rates of energy storage deployments and revenue in energy generation should outpace the automotive business yeah I mean if you believe in Elon the Stock's a pretty good buy here but you always have to have a little bit of wiggle room oh yeah how's whiff doing oh man the dog's losing the hat dog without hat okay so new vehicles in first half 25 including more afford affordable Vehicles that's interesting H yeah I mean I think it's still in Elon We Trust