Why the First Presidential Debate Will Be a “SH*T Show”

hi everyone it's such an exciting night because in Philadelphia at 900 p.m Eastern Time former president Donald Trump will face off with current vice president and presidential candidate kamla Harris Frank Lun is one of my favorite people to talk to about politics he is a pollster he has done thousands of focus groups with everyday Americans and I thought he could give us a great preview about what we might expect Tonight Frank before I get into the poll numbers and all those other things by the way welcome from West Point where you're teaching tonight so thank you for taking time out for us um just what are you expecting a show and I'm sure you I know you'll have to just have to bleep it out but there's no other word than that and in fact I got permission to use that word on several cable networks because that's what it is in the end you've got one candidate that has no respect for his opponent no respect for com uh decency or Civility and the other candidates we really don't know enough about her that she hasn't been so forthcoming with where she stands and and what she thinks about various key policy issues so I'm expecting tonight to be kind of awful and I do believe it's going to determine the election I think that tonight is everything for both candidates and frankly if Donald Trump actually had some semblance of of uh discipline he'd have the advantage but he doesn't and he hasn't shown it and that's why I'm expecting Harris the vice vice president Harris to be forthcoming where she what she would do with immigration what she would do with inflation and most importantly what her day one plan is because she really didn't say so on the CNN interview and I'm expecting fireworks quite frankly I think the two of them are going to go at each other because they don't like each other they don't respect each other and it's going to be a pretty tough tough night well let's dig into that a little bit more Donald Trump actually seemed to exhibit a fair amount of discipline even though there were many fabric ations I think 38 lies in all in his last debate performance with President Biden do you think he can Marshall that kind of discipline you said it's a big if and certainly in recent weeks he has not exhibited that on social media so what are the chances that he will actually quote unquote behave himself Tonight Frank I don't think it's I don't think the chances are great and basically it's the the exact opposite advice for the two candidates for Donald Trump say less for KLA Harris say more for Trump lay back for Harris lean in and it's because they're in different stages of their campaign their they have different weaknesses both of them have the potential to be very strong tonight with Harris her Advantage is her Persona is her her ease and her youthfulness and her excitement and what she says joy her disadvantage is that people have the right to know where she stands and she has the responsibility to tell them that doesn't have to be so detailed but it does have to have some specifics in Trump's case he's got an argument to make for inflation he's got an argument to make for immigration the Border was safer inflation was lower but voters don't like him so he needs to actually hold back which is not what Trump does and she needs to lean forward which is not what she does well let's talk about that some more you said what she needs to do why do you think she hasn't yet or has not sufficiently defined herself and her policy positions up to this point why do you think her campaign isn't having her lean into policy do you think they're worried that by doing so will alienate some voters there's two fold one is that she's been able to be multiple things to multiple people which you only get one shot to do the more specific you are and the more people you turn off so the point that you raised is a good one but the second one is that she says something that that Trump can pounce on and make no mist mistake the Trump campaign this time is better than 2016 and better than 2020 the candidate is worse but the campaign is better and so she doesn't want to say anything wrong and you know what if you go from four points down to three points up in a matter of a couple of weeks why change the strategy however tonight they're going to hold her feet to the fire and tonight the accountability is much higher than it's been up to this point why do you think the polls have tightened so much in the last New York Times Sienna poll it is neck and neck I think Donald Trump is one point ahead of her and many believe that her his supporters are undercounted in polling situations why do you think it's tightened so much I don't think it's necessary Titan because there are plenty of Nationwide polls that show her up three points or four points and the same thing happened uh uh eight weeks ago there were some polls that still had Biden at least dead even with Trump in the end I'll tell you what I do I use the real clear politics average it's something that your viewers can go to they can find it very easily and they tend to throw out the most extreme polls for the Democrats the most extreme polls for the Republicans and the average turns out to be very close to where things are she is beating Donald Trump on average by just over 1% what does that mean it's simply too close to call the difference between now and 2016 because that's what I'm comparing this with is that is that Trump is in a better position in 2016 he's his administration is actually receiving some fair and good marks for what it did I remember how he left office no one else seems to be focused on that and Trump on the issues that matter is perceived to be better than Harris on the issues that matter which are the economy and immigration and not the economy and not even inflation it's affordability and it's food and fuel housing and Health Care these are things that everyone has to consume and that people remember how much they paid a few years ago and they're comparing that with today so Katie I will acknowledge that inflation is way way down from what it was 18 months ago that said that's not how the average voter looks at it they are making more money now than they ever have but they're paying even higher prices than they ever have and therefore they have less money at the end of the week or less money at the end of the month and in fact paycheck to paycheck voters to me is the key swing voter they don't like Trump as a person but they think he'll be better for their pocketbooks they do like Harrison they're curious about her they question some of the where she stands on some of the issues let me ask you what you said briefly a moment ago that people don't remember the way Donald Trump left office why isn't January 6 looming larger in the minds of Voters this Go Round And the fact that despite all evidence to the cont Donald Trump continues to insist the election was rigged well because the guy was shot was it six weeks ago seven weeks ago and the public has forgotten that we have such short memories we're willing to blot out the things that we don't like and we're more focused now on day-to-day quality of life because it is a struggle and if you ask people what's more important to them getting by making ends meet providing for their families or the political events of January 6 it's overwhelming and in fact we've looked at that inflation is more than two and a half times more important to the public immigration is 2.3 times more important to the public than January 6 you and I may because of our positions because of our education because of our responsibilities we may Focus on January 6 but the average American is worried about putting food on the table and that supersedes anything about politics about what happened that day I know that you have said previously Frank that kamla Hara should focus on the chaos of the Trump Administration during the course of this debate how does she effectively do that and why do you think that's a good strategy well because the public doesn't want to go back and there's a battle right now over who's the candidate of the past versus who's the candidate of the future it is not clearcut on that because the Biden Harris Administration is the administration in power right now in terms of importance and that's what I'm always trying to measure is priorities their voters the last undecided voters only 5% of them and they only exist in seven states that really matter so you realize that we're about to spend $2 billion on less than 1% of the vote and in states where the winner is probably going to win by 1% 2% maybe even less that every Advantage is essential for the candidates and and every opportunity they have to draw a negative contrast with their opponents they're going to seize that opportunity I really believe that quality of life not standard of living but quality of life is more important now than it was in 2020 and that voters have forgotten some of the worst elements that they didn't like about Donald Trump although he seems to find it necessary to remind them every time he speaks so uh so are you saying TLA Harris should remind them of what it was like when Donald Trump was President absolutely but and she can do so because he's made it an issue the way that he attacks her her ethnicity the size of her rallies it's it's absurd to me if he challenges her on immigration if he challenges Her On the Border if he challenges her on the prices of food and fuel and housing and health care that's where he strongest instead he's challenging her on things that nobody cares about or even worse yet they are offended by what he says and I don't think he has the ability frankly to be disciplined and I don't think he has the ability to even hear criticism and that's why I'm not expecting him I'll be the first to acknowledge and I you'll follow me on Twitter or X and you'll see what I as the debate goes on if he wins I'll acknowledge it I don't have an issue with that but I think he's gonna lose because he's incapable and I'm GNA give you the two lines in her case she needs to say to him for every woman for every mom for every daughter for every grandchild granddaughter for every wife show us respect show us dignity treat us the way you would treat your own mom and your own daughter and stop yelling at us that's what she should do because that'll Galvanize the female vote and for Trump all he has to do with her is to say is to interrupt and she say excuse me I'm speaking I'm talking and his response to that is yes you're talking and that's the problem you're talking and America wants you doing that's his best attack against her she has been asked about her changing views and you know I think if I were her I would say well your vice presidential candidate said that you were the equivalent of Hitler and all kinds of things about you in 2016 nonetheless she has been challenged about her changing views on a number of issues and according to a lot of conservative media Outlets they are going to try to paint her as a left-wing radical how does she deal with the fact that she has changed on a few issues uh without looking like a flip-flopper or somebody who is just trying to win an election she has to draw a very good question and she has to draw the contrast who do you want someone who holds the same views today as they did 20 years ago someone who sees life and experience his life and holds a number of different positions and still will not change where they stand on policy do you want someone who does that or do you want someone who learns someone who grows someone who takes in information and makes judgment not on ideological reasons but on Common Sense reasons in fact the language for her is reasonable sensible and responsible but Katie I don't hear her using those words either so I look at both these candidates it's so to me it's so easy and yet it seems so difficult for them I wanted ask you about your assertion that this debate is really really important because I know some people have said they were going to base their vote on what they heard tonight on the other hand I know that according to a poll only 29% of adults said that debates between political candidates are rarely ever based on facts and today 40% of American adults believe that debates between political C candidates are rarely if ever based on facts given that increased number Frank will that many people be basing their votes on on a a process that they don't even think is the truth because they're not voting on facts they're not voting on policy they're voting on the candidate that they think think understands them the candidate that empathizes with them the candidate that has their back it's why Harris repeatedly says I'm fighting for you she's trying to show not the policy of what she's doing but the attribute of fighting and Donald Trump has the same objective he even uses some of the same language in the end the undecided voters obviously there's a huge tonomy I'm looking at my camera to make sure that the hands stay in the frame they are this far apart and so there should be no question about whether you're voting for Harris or Trump but these final UND voters don't vote on policy they vote on character traits and attributes and what the candidates are like and whether or not they feel comfortable with them and whether or not they think that they're understood and appreciated the reason why Trump won in 2016 is not because of his policies it's because a whole lot of Americans felt ignored forgotten even betrayed and those people still exist in 2024 it's a different group of people in 2024 and if I can just specify them union members who don't support their leadership and are making a decision that's going against their leadership particularly in the trades in the in the uh in the professions where they work with their hands this would be a higher Trump vote among those people than any Union any Republican candidate with unions second Latino votes and I know this sounds crazy because of what he said about some people coming across the border but they're just as angry with democrats for ignoring them or betraying them as they are with Trump for his comments and they matter in States like Nevada and Arizona and lastly are younger African-American men not the women the women are so solidly in her camp that she's probably going to get 97% of women of color Trump is drawing among African-American men younger ones and and Latino men in surprising numbers maybe a third of of black men are considering him and 40% of Latino men and that's changed explain that Frank can you explain that yes it's because they feel like they've been screwed and they see Trump is fighting the system they see the system is coming down on Trump just like it comes down on them they're tired of it and they want to speak up and they want to speak out and that's exactly what they're doing uh now she's doing especially well among Suburban women I think she's gonna do even better than Hillary Clinton did than even Joe Biden did among Suburban women well Hillary Clinton did not win white women by the way Frank we should remind people that right but but she did particularly badly in exurbs she did particularly badly in rural communities I'm now speaking of the suburbs where she absolutely did win places like outside Philadelphia outside Pittsburgh um uh the suburbs of Detroit the suburbs of Madison and Milwaukee stat said Trump eventually won he won because of the exerpts and further out in the rural communities they came out and voted in record numbers back in 2016 and Biden won a lot did even better than she did among that group in 2020 I think Harris is going to do the best of the three and that that if she wins that would be the reason why she wins Suburban women upper middle class women Co college graduates with jobs and kids and she's they've had it's not that they're necessarily voting for her they're simply voting against Trump and younger women are absolutely voting for Harris so you got this balance you got this voter shift so Trump's got some good news and Harris has got some good news I want to go back to something you said quickly about character that many people vote on the character who they think cares about them and if you're talking about character I'm curious how Donald Trump's legal travails have impacted the perception that he is a person of character after all he is a convicted felon so I guess the question is how do people rationalize believing that he is someone of Greater character given his legal track record I'm using character in the broadest term character traits I've shortcut it by calling it character it's not that they find him more honest than her or that they trust him more than her because they don't it's the attributes that he brings to the office in addition to this which is an uncompromising willingness to stand up to the media which is now having the lowest credibility numbers it's they've ever had in modern Politics the willingness to to speak truth to CEOs and Business Leaders who are not held in particularly high regard right now those character traits have allowed him to survive what would have destroyed any other candidate and the last thing about this is the way that the Democrats handle this in the Biden Administration they turn Donald Trump into a victim you don't indict someone and then Waits four days or five days to release the indictment that allowed Trump to redefine all of these cases and to say to his supporters and to others that he's being prosecuted and persecuted Donald Trump is the best victim politician I have ever seen in my professional life and actually with each indictment in some cases his numbers his polling numbers actually went up you recently spoke with 15 undecided voters Frank uh between the ages of 18 and 27 for uh part of a piece you did for the New York Times what did you learn from these younger voters that surprised you the most uh I not sure it surprised me but it's very clear to them and it's similar to what I've been analyzing with you now they really don't like Donald Trump but Harris hasn't told them enough to make them support her they don't want to go back to the uh to the period when they were younger and all the chos and all the disruption in fact that's where I came up with this theory about chaos was from those voters but as much as they don't love Trump they're not going to vote for someone they don't know they're not going to vote for someone who is not forthcoming and it was okay for her for Harris to to not do these interviews up to a point starting tonight she's gonna have to answer a lot of questions to win them over to be clear you think she'll need to do more interviews after this debate as well absolutely because the debate will raise a lot of questions not just answer them I think that she has the advantage right now you ask me to bet on the election I'd say she wins but I wouldn't put any money on it because it's way too close to call he has the ability to win the election back she has the ability to put it without out of Trump's reach it depends on whether both candidates are humble enough to hear what voters are saying about them and address those concerns I'm not sure they are but that's why tonight is so important in closing I want you to finish the sentence tonight the debate will be a victory for Donald Trump if he keeps his cool focuses on policies doesn't personally insult the vice president but does challenge her record because it's not a strong record on the issues that matter particularly inflation and immigration vice president kamla Harris will have a victory in the debate tonight if she if she talks about and addresses with some detail exactly what she will do on day one day 100 and day 1,000 and she challenges Trump to treat women with decency Civility and respect the respect that they deserve that they've earned and deserve having said that the gender gap is already what 13 points or more Frank I think there're going to be more divorces because of this election than ever before and and if I don't run momentarily I will be divorced from West Point because I need to teach tonight all right well Frank thank you so much for your time uh I'll be following you on X to get your feedback as I watch the debate and uh we'll see if it really is a show as you predict did well let us hope that I'm wrong in that prediction I hope so because I hope it's an opportunity for the American people to learn something about both candidates because it's such an important election Frank thank you great to see you as always cheers