4 BUSTS Only Idiots Will DRAFT in Fantasy Football

Intro in this video I'll give you the quarterbacks and running backs who will fall off in 2024 fantasy redraft leagues I'm Jim covry of RotoWire look Baker Baker Mayfield Mayfield was a great story last year he was always rostered as my third quarterback in super Flex leagues again story was great but now we got to look at this year Mayfield had a very good coaching situation last year with Dave Canales Canales did exactly what Mayfield was strong at throwing downfield they got good tackle protection gave Mayfield just enough time to let those plays develop well all of a sudden now we're in a new situation and I know Liam Cohen did Coach with Mayfield for a short time when Mayfield had that stint with the Rams but all that said Mayfield has had a very very up and down career he has not held any level of consistency for any time Mayfield had a career year last year again it was beautiful career highs and yardage completion percentage touchdowns the switch to Cohen there are a lot of anticipatory throws at need to be made it's not grip it and rip it like it was last year which really worked well I don't know that Mayfield when pressure comes especially from the interior the interior line is not quite as strong as the tackles those anticipatory throws may be problematic if Mayfield gets a little bit skittish now fortunately as Mike EV at Chris God which will certainly help but all that said counting on Mayfield to put together another year that Rivals last year and the fantasy numbers weren Elite C certainly uh they were good a lot of quarterbacks were hurt last year so his season ranking was higher than it probably should have been but I think betting on Mayfield to do it again is a very very difficult draw especially again when we're looking at an offense as I said that requires anticipatory throws Gino Smith is next Gino Smith Geno Smith look most of his career didn't have much going on and then Shane Waldren coached him a couple of years and two years ago we had a career year last year was a significant drop up but still a good enough fantasy year now the offensive line was hurt last year for the Seahawks I get that but Gino Smith is proven a lot in his long career I mean eight years he did literally nothing at the NFL level even in his first couple years it was way more interceptions and touchdowns so all that said now another coaching change and we like the idea that they're going to have a spread system now might work but I'm very concerned when you have a college coach moved to the NFL we've seen very few success stories Jimmy Johnson few others very few one year of Chip Kelly um I can't even give Jim Harbaugh that credit because he was an NFL player and a lot of what the coaches have to do coming from the college level so Ryan grub now was going to have to make ingame adjustments well in college he didn't have to do that his system was either already going to beat the opponent the talent on the offense was going to beat the opponent they never had to make a change and in the NFL starting in week one you're going to have to make big changes because the coaching staff and the talent level in the NFL on defense is way different Gino Smith is in this situation a new offense not having Waldren it might start out a little bit well they catch the league off guard but once the league makes adjustments to what Ryan grub wants to do with the offense I'm very concerned I mean we saw Gino Smith last year go from a 252 yards a game in 2022 loss a full 10 yards it doesn't sound like much but 10 yards is a big deal goes from 30 touchdowns to 20 look we like the receiving options we like DK metf and maybe he can get more in a new offense we love Jackson Smith and jiga drafted the first round last year again skillful player maybe something happens to him Tyler Lockett the numbers were decent but he showed decline last year and they'll be 32 this year it's going to be very hard to buy into Gino Smith a season like he did two years ago just don't see it happening Gino Smith has a long track record not betting on him hitting the top 20 quarterbacks if you enjoy videos like this please consider hitting the like button and subscribe to the RotoWire fantasy football channel on YouTube also you can check out all of our fantasy football content and rankings by getting a free two-day trial no credit card needed you just head on over to rotowire.com Jim and you can check out all of our content all right let's give you some running backs here Kyren williams Kiren Williams going inside the top 10 running backs in fantasy drafts and we loved what he did last year almost 100 scrimmage yards per game insane 12 touchdowns in 12 games what's not the like I still have to think Shawn McVey is always two steps ahead of the league and last year McVey had it figured out and what the Rams did they were already understanding that defenses were going to use lighter boxes they were going to shoot gaps they were going to slow down outside Zone run plays and the Rams went with a heavy dose of what we call duo or downhill running and it was perfect because defenses couldn't engage and Kiren Williams who had struggles in his time on the field as a rookie there were no struggles at all last year we have to think though Kiron Williams Miss seven games as a rookie missed five last year he also broke his hand in the NFC playoff game of course you didn't miss time because their season was over but that was another injury to add to the list and that could be a problem last year when the season started Kiron Williams was in a time share with Cam Acres until cam Acres just did what cam acres does but that said Blake corm got drafted and drafted with a significant draft pick there's a strong world where Blake corm is a significantly better athlete player than kyen Williams is at that point what does McVey do I've got an injury-plagued running back who I have to limit his work I've got this young rookie in corm who he spent draft capital in who may be very talented how is it not a time share and if corm is is significantly better could he push kyen Williams all the way into the background and make kyen Williams maybe a 30 or 40% player all these possibilities are realistic may not happen it's football right but there's a lot working against Kiren Williams here aside from the great production he had when he was on the field last year I just don't see any world where if you're drafting him as a top 10 running back there's a lot of red flags and in that part of the draft I want as few red flags as possible just too many with Kiron Williams now the Alvin Kamara next one is going to be difficult it's Alvin cimo he for Fantasy he was wonderful last year 13 games only 13 games 1160 scrimmage yards six touchdowns caught 75 passes he was a fantasy football stud last year now the the decline was what the coaches saw broken tackle rate used to be elite 15th percentile near the bottom after contact 27th per now again not good all right maybe as a receiver he gets D Alvin CRA no 24th percentile these are numbers that don't factor in offensive line play and things like that these are numbers that tell us what a running back is camra's another year older he'll be 29 had a lot of usage in his career the offensive Line's bad now it's possible Kendra Miller look in hamstring injuries um Jamal Williams probably close to washed they have some guys in the depth chart maybe fighting for work is it possible chimra just gets enough volume just to compile it's Poss possible if anybody on that depth chart at any point emerges into something viable the fact that Cima can't break tackles or get yards after contact anymore it's going to cut down on this workload so if you're betting on Camaro you'd better hope that everybody else in the backfield is terrible because again with another year of decline it is not getting better