US Open 2024 PREVIEW & PREDICTIONS | Monday Match Analysis

Intro welcome everyone to Monday match analysis I'm Gil gross this is the 2024 US Open quarter by quarter preview where I'll give you my dark horses my upset alerts my early popcorn matches and of course my quarterfinal and final weekend predictions we're brought to you by bet us slightly delayed on this one but for a good reason I have been uh deep into media day the last two days interviewing a lot of players for US Open radio uh maybe I'll bring some of that stuff into the preview but uh I might give a more full recap of my interviews and some of the things I learned um on Monday where I will do a mailbag at least it will be released Monday it'll be recorded Sunday night uh make sure that you check out the YouTube Community tab or just go to my Discord link is in the description where you can post a mailbag question whenever you want and I'm really excited for this mailbag because it's been a couple weeks since we've done one we've got to follow up on the center stuff and of course so much excitement with the US Open right now um the one thing I'll say before I get into the quarters is uh you may be wondering about conditions and what I've heard from uh from that standpoint and I've kind of landed on it's medium like it's pretty sensible kind of a normal hardcore I think players were pretty worried after Cincinnati that the US Open I mean some players were probably happy but a lot of players were probably pretty worried after Cincinnati cuz the courts were lightning quick I mean way quicker than your average hard court so that would have been polarizing some players would have liked that some players wouldn't have everybody who went to New York was like oh okay this is this is much slower and uh that led some players to say oh it's slow you know some players said okay it's pretty quick uh and normally when you're hearing both it just means it's medium and people are uncomfortable saying that a court is medium so that is my thing on the conditions that uh it's pretty normal but we'll get more into kind of how some of the outer courts could affect things versus Ash because uh that always plays a factor and last I checked uh temperature-wise pretty mild for the first week at least I don't know I don't know about the second week and neither do meteorologists because they are never accurate uh more than a few days ahead in my experience no offense meteorologists okay yanic siner is the number one seed he's got Medvedev Titi Paul FAA Sinner Quarter feast jari and caboi my Dark Horse here is yakob menik my upset alert is Stephanos tias and my early popcorn is Arthur Fe versus Learner tenen in the first round so I think that this quarter is fascinating and it doesn't waste any time getting started because there are so many great first round matches here and I'll kind of get into them by nature of first of all discussing yakob menik who plays Felix o Ali aim in the first round um men's big breakthrough run was last year at the US Open when uh he was only uh 17 and then he turned 18 when he played Taylor Fritz in the third round uh he told me the US Open is his favorite tournament I did get to to to speak to yakob I didn't even ask him uh and and he just divulged that so he he's feeling good he appreciates this environment he has good memories from last year and uh those of you you know some of you may have heard me speak about uh yakob in the past but I think he is extremely physical for his age I think his serve is out standing uh and he's pretty solid off of the ground I think it's a good I think Felix is going to need to be sharp uh FAA if the forehand is firing as it has been uh has has looked pretty difficult to beat to be honest but the courts will be slowed down from Cincinnati and if menic can get into enough Baseline rallies I actually think he can he can outplay FAA from neutral so my dark horse is yaka menik uh upset a there were a couple of options because of how intriguing so many of these first round matches are I could have put Nicholas jari jari still hasn't won a match since Rome I I hope that he turns things around for for his sake I mean he's a he's an excellent player and I imagine things are pretty bad from a health standpoint given the downturn in results uh but Stephanos CTI pass also has a really difficult first round match against tanasi kokinakis who can serve big at his backhand who can play aggressive with the plus one forehand uh if titia starts chipping returns um who who will hit big and play aggressive and they played at the Australian Open in 2021 and konakis pushed that to five sets and at the time tanasi was outside of the top 200 so that was a big moment for for konakis to kind of remind the tennis world and kind of everybody that oh he's still capable of a top level so he's got good memories against Titi even though he didn't win that match and if you look at tanasi recently it's been absolutely wild but I think he's playing great tennis so grasscourt season he won he won a good amount of matches but then he kept slipping and hurting his knee that happened the week before Wimbledon and then it happened at Wimbledon and he beat Felix at Wimbledon remember he was a little bit fortunate to win that match uh but then he was not fortunate at all with the two slips came to hardcourt he should have beaten Sebastian Corda he had Match Point against Corda and then Corda hit a shank lob winner a crazy shot and konakis on a second match point had a midcourt backhand down the line approach shot and the approach shot hit the net CT and sat up for C horrible luck for konaka CA ended up winning DC then last week uh not last week it was it was uh Cincinnati I shouldn't say it was last week uh but in Cincinnati he played Hubert herot and he lost in a third set tie break close as it gets so he's been in all of these matches it's been very tight he hasn't had luck on his side but all indications say that he's playing good tennis and uh that's really why Titi is on upset alert I'm I'm not down on Titi POS I'll talk about him a little bit more in in a moment but let's uh move on to early popcorn it is Arthur Fe versus larner Tien uh larner has had an eye popping summer he has dominated at the ITF level at the Challenger level he went on a phenomenal win streak more than 25 matches I I think it might have been 28 but don't quote me on that uh he is you know he's also been a really really successful uh junior player so American Lefty I've watched a lot of highlights I haven't really watched a learner TN match start to finish unfortunately but what it looks like in the highlights is uh first of all he's extremely consistent he is very very quick around the court but frankly I'll be honest just from the highlights I'm surprised at how much success he's having because none of his weapons really jump out uh but that just means you know I need to I need to watch more and I'll kind of figure out uh what kind of X factors are enabling him to uh to win so many matches and of course Arthur Fe you know explosive young player who's uh had a much better second half really struggled in the first half of 2024 uh to me that's a very intriguing first round match we'll see how learner does in his US Open main draw debut but uh I think he won the junior title last year let me let me check that is that right I want to say he did let's see uh junior career uh he made the final did he lose in the final I think he lost in the final because it says uh reaching two Junior slam finals Australian Open US Open okay so he didn't win the titles but uh my quarterfinal prediction here is Yanik CER defeats denil medev but let me start with Stephanos CPAs because uh I actually almost went bold here and I almost said you know what I kind of like The Vibes with CTI pass maybe he can take out meddev if if denil doesn't step up his game and start to play a little bit better and uh the reason for that is uh I actually saw some good signs in Cincinnati from Steph I thought the stru win was a really good win and I'm coming around to the idea that the coaching change for Titi POS will actually give him an immediate Spark but the evidence it just isn't there at all like at all I mean if you look at the bigger picture Titi on hardcourt four- six against top 50 players this year so a losing record against top 50 players on hardcourt uh tias is way too good for for that stat but it is what it is uh you know he needs to kind of show me before I'm ready to give him an optimistic prediction you know I still don't doubt CT's capabilities but he needs to kind of show that he's I I got to see it I I don't I don't know what else to say I got to see something I got to see Signs of Life uh Medvedev bad summer you know definitely not good uh I I grusin and I in the power ranking show talked about what we were seeing from him and we both had him fifth in the power rankings uh but look it's only two tournaments since the Olympics on hardcourt I am not going to overreact here meddev has made the final weekend in four of his last five us opens and the one loss was to Peak curios big picture it's been a really good year at the slams for meddev and I just don't like doubting denil when he steps on a hardcore best of five I don't like doubting him unless there's a little bit more to go off of then a couple of stunning results and they were um in the lead in so I'm just not really ready to say denil can't make the quarters at the US Open I'm I'm not there yet as for CER uh Tommy Paul is there for yanuk I think CER matches up better with Tommy than alcaraz does as much as I as much as I like um what I've seen from Tommy Paul throughout the season yanuk takes the return of serve a little bit earlier and he he hits a little bit deeper than alcaraz on average and I think that'll just keep Tommy back at the base line and when you can keep Tommy at the Baseline uh stop him from using his transition game that's where the best players really separate themselves with Superior ball striking uh especially when you bring Tommy's forehand into the mix so I think Center will have an easier time with Paul than than alcaraz normally does and then against meddev obviously denil beat Center at the in The Wimbledon quarter final there are a lot of really obvious improvements that Center can make from that match Yanik was not feeling very well and he didn't quite have his legs and therefore the rally tolerance wasn't there the decision- making wasn't as good as it normally is the forehand wasn't as consistent as it normally is uh and then the weird part of this match I don't you can't really use the illness as an excuse here for Center he wasn't creative at all to start the match but he started to figure that out uh about Midway through the match like in the fourth set I think he played it the right way so I think cner knows what he needs to do and uh with better rally tolerance and increased creativity I think he gets through denil meddev who still isn't serving very well I'm I'm worried about the second serve and you know it just hasn't come around like like I thought it might uh because we did hear some positive things from denil in the Press uh you know Midway through the year where he was saying okay I'm back to practicing the serve uh against Center at Wimbledon he did hit his spots did a great job hitting his spots but uh I mean what did he serve against leka I think he served 43% I mean that's in that's insane for meddev to serve that poorly it was 44% to be exact and his double fault rate was over 10% terrible double fault rate all right let's move on Carlos alcaraz's quarter he's the number three seed he is on Yanik cers Alcaraz Quarter quarter for a third straight slam he's got Hubert herot deor Corda tabilo hainov Draper and arnaldi my Darkhorse is Jang xien my upset alert is Hubert herot and my early popcorn is hainov versus Evans round one let's start with uh with Jang xien uh very interesting first round match with Jack dra which easily could have been my early popcorn I think that that's a 50/50 match that that Jung has at least a 50% chance of of beating Jack uh who hasn't gotten past the second round of a slam this year that might be weighing on Draper the FAA incident I did talk to Jack today I asked him about what it felt like having you know the 24 hours after uh after that happened and you know having to play hogar and losing that match and he he admitted he said it was all I could think about all the time uh so look time is going to heal ultimately but how much time will it take that's yet to be seen xang XI Jan is very dangerous if you don't break his rhythm he's a tremendous ball Striker I would compare his his style to Taylor Fritz and uh if you are not breaking his rhythm his power off the ground can uh can be very disruptive sometimes Jack can be a little bit linear not mix up the speeds all that much so I think Jang can play some good tennis against him and uh if he gets going he's got the weapons to make a run Jang xien he beat Casper rud at the US Open last year by the way upset alert is Hubert herot you know I talked in the power rankings about huie hasn't been getting upset recently but he's coming off of a retirement and the US Open has been a horror house for him and that's the main thing here you know I don't know about Timothy Scotto who qualified and qualifiers are always dangerous in the early rounds but I think Jordan Thompson round two for herot I think he can cause some problems um also let me just say herot I don't think he's been past the third round at the US Open when I say it's been a horror house he's been so good at the American Masters 1000s but I something about New York it just hasn't vibed with with huie at all he did get sick last year when he lost to Draper it looked like he wasn't feeling well so that might have factored in but uh Jordan Thompson has a great return and he likes to take Pace off the ball hu does not like to play against players who take Pace off the ball and I I think uh I think Thompson's movement and his groundstroke style can really bother herot that's why he's on upset alert I could also see a run from huie remember I picked him to the semis last year herot was playing great tennis last year around this time and I picked him to the semis and uh and he made me look silly so I I do think I do think that's in him somewhere but Thompson's goingon to be dangerous popcorn is hatov versus Evans you know it's uh probably not as flat as the other popcorn matches that I have if we're being honest but the desperation is what makes this so exciting uh so interesting I should say because I'm very intrigued by both of these guys Karen hatov it's been a very long time since he's had a really good win and we know how tough he was for a two-year period or really even longer than that uh best of five I mean he was so good at the slams and he's not so old that he can't get back to being that guy I don't think he's going to make you know semis like he was but hatov is playing some of the worst tennis that he's played probably in you know five or six years so he's trying to get out of that rut and Dan Evans he's outside the top 200 right now he made a massive sacrifice playing the Olympics not defending his title in Washington DC which uh I thought was pretty incredible you know I thought out of everyone who played the Olympics Dan Evans was the guy who probably showed the most uh I don't know pride in playing for his country out of everybody else because of what was at stake so you hope that Dan can kind of turn it around and these guys have opposite approaches to tennis hatov is one of the most robotic players and disciplined players that I've I've ever seen Dan Evans is a magician he's a creative guy he doesn't like to play the same shot twice in a row he not going to overpower you he's not going to beat you with his athleticism he is going to beat you with his craftsmanship so they are total opposites and that always makes it fun to watch quarterfinal prediction is Carlos alcarez defeats Matteo araldi who in some ways should have been my Darkhorse uh but he couldn't have been because he's the 30 seed and the rule here on Monday match analysis is the Dark Horse must be unseated so I'm going to get ahead of that question in the comments because some I I knew I know if I don't if I didn't say that some people would have been like isn't arnaldi or Darkhorse then no he's the he's the 30 seed let's start with the fact that in the bottom part of this quarter there's just a lot of uncertainty in my opinion I think herot might have trouble uh getting out of his first three matches I I don't know what to expect out of Alex demor if deor plays the level that he's been playing throughout 2024 I expect to see him in the quarterfinal but he has not played since Wimbledon and he's someone who it's not he's not like a herot or a bartini who can come back from injury and hit some serves and win matches like he needs to be fully fit in order to have any success and that's where you're kind of concerned about um about demon and then hatov I mentioned isn't in form so that's why I kind of go to arnaldi who look he has not been uh consistent this season but he did have the semi-final in Canada so there there is some positive momentum in his career right now and uh he's got great movement and a big forehand and a lot of confidence I like how he plays on the big stages I like how he how he plays against top players I like his hands he hit good Drop shots he hits pretty good volleys so you know I'm a fan of arnaldi he does not hit his spots on his serve his shot selection is all over the place so will those things come back to bite him you know maybe uh but we'll have to see I decided to kind of take a take a little bit of a swing on Matteo arnaldi Carlos alcaras he's got a lot of good tests but it shouldn't matter you know ultimately I I would say that alcarez has a favorable draw because you know his quarterfinal match in my opinion is so murky but there are a lot of threats um tou in or sorry T Lee rather in in the first round is a great story the Aussie first slam main draw that that shouldn't be much of an issue shaav volov second round alarz destroyed shapo last time they played uh I'm not really seeing the the danger the dangerous side of shapovalov that was so evident for so long in his career I haven't seen that recently uh Jang xien maybe in the third round for alcarez Alejandra tabilo in the fourth round for alarz I I don't think it's a terrible path for caritos um and I'll I'll save the rest of my alcaras thoughts for when we get to the final weekend prediction a reminder that Monday match analysis is brought to you by bet us it's got all the odds you could ever ask for for the US Open and new customers getting 100 25% deposit match on their first three deposits up to $2,000 please gamble responsibly and don't harass the players let us now move Zverev Quarter on to Alexander zev's quarter top seeds are verev rude Fritz Runa Amber MTI bublick and celo let me pause here and say what is going on what in the world is happening why are Zev MTI and Fritz in the same quarter every single tournament now three in a row or four in a row I forget if they I forget what the deal was at at rangos but definitely Wimbledon definitely the Olympics probably three in a row okay so we keep doing this are we just going to keep doing this draw Gods you want to SP them up mix it up maybe come on now all right my Dark Horse here is mato bartini my upset alert is everyone except Zev and my early popcorn is Runa versus Nakashima round one bartini is a clear and obvious Darkhorse selection and not just because Alex grusin had him power ranked sixth coming into this US Open let me point out a couple of things about bartini we know he's won three titles we know he's made you know a couple of finals in addition to that if his hold percentage stands where it is right now it's the highest of his career I think the key in that has been uh he's making 71% of his first serves this year which is a career high it's about 5 percentage points better than he's ever done so somehow he's come back from this ankle injury and he's actually serving the best he's ever served he's also been very clutch his record in tie breaks across all levels is 17 and six I have always sung the Praises of bartini in pressure situations I think he's so good Under Pressure very clear-headed doesn't get tight some people give me flak and they say Well then why isn't he beating jokovic it's because because he's not good enough it's not because he's not clutch enough I I think bartini is so clutch uh I love his mental game at Majors and uh in terms of in terms of that I mean he has not been good in hardcore best of three throughout his career but best of five he's been in the semis at the Australian Open he's been in the semis at the US opened twice so he's an obvious Dark Horse and of course Taylor Fritz second round that's a big time match uh I think Taylor should request that he should want he might even not need to request it but he should want that to be at night so that the conditions slow down and it's not as Lively so he can try to get into more rallies with bartini so look for that to be a night match all right upset alert I have everyone except Zev so uh let's go through this Casper Roode he is playing qualifier uh Buu Yuna uh yunti Yun chiti and I might need to pronoun I might need to practice that pronunciation uh but Buu leads the Challenger tour in wins so he's clearly doing something right a lot right and he qualified so he's got that momentum uh you know Roode Roode should be feeling better you know he said he was in bed for 5 days with the flu when I talked to him today uh but you know I I I don't I would obviously be surprised if Casper lost but I think it's a little bit dangerous just given what Buu has done throughout the season bck plays Jerry shung I think shung will win that umar's draw is good but his record in New York is abysmal he tends to lose first round here so by nature of that Amar can also be on upset alert Fritz plays bartini second round Runa plays Brandon Nakashima Nakashima has had a great summer he is three and three versus top 20 players on hardcourt in the last 52 weeks he beat Runa badly when they played in Shanghai last year musetti plays Riley opela who has looked very good for a guy who hadn't played in two years he his first tournament back was Newport he's looked very good considering that uh he he did tell me that he's still playing through wrist pain which is not great um we'll talk more about that um obviously it's my popcorn match Francisco cindolo plays Sebastian ofner I would not be surprised if Sebastian offner wins there those are all the seeds other than Zev now Zev plays lucky loser Max martyr Sasha is not going to lose that unless he doesn't wake up for an 11: a.m. start on grandstand which uh I don't think he'll be happy about that scheduling to start at 11:00 a.m. on the third largest court but as long as Z doesn't let that get the better of him he should be fine against martyr um popcorn match I I did I I put Runa Nakashima on the slide but I actually put musetti opela in my notes so I'll just say it's both um musetti I will say I do think he'll beat opela he was so good at Wimbledon against the big servers he beat Giovanni pety Perry car he beat Taylor Fritz so good at you know making extra returns back in play making extra balls uh forcing these offensive players to just be so clinical in attack so I think MTI will get through that uh Runa I'm fascinated in hulga Runa I think that there's a lot of a lot of confidence right now for for hoger and I think he feels healthy and things are going in the right direction I think he's a real threat in this quarter but Brandon Nakashima is a terrific spot server we've covered that a lot and hoger has at times struggled to uh to return with enough quality to to break serve uh when guys are are you know serving him tough so the margins could get pretty small there Nakashima gets into a lot of tie breaks and I think he can force hogar into some tie breaks so that's one I'll have I'll uh certainly have my eye on quarterfinal prediction here is Zev defeats rude one of the main factors for me in this quarterfinal was difficulty of draw hul garuna and Taylor Fritz I think I think Fritz is a great hardcore player he's extremely motivated at the US Open he's played better at the slams this year he got hammered in the draw I mean bartini second round am potentially third round I do think it will be Yugo I think he can get through it uh and then you know maybe rude fourth round to get to the quarterfinal but it's really the bartini match that's rough Runa got it even worse hoger draws terrible to have to play uh Nakashima first round musetti third round who's just with with the last few tournaments that MTI has had to have to play him third round uh when you're the 15 seed is a tough break Runa um and then and then he plays verev so MTI Zev and Nakashima to get to the quarters I don't like that for hogar uh Zev has by far the the easiest section here Sendero his top seed not a lot of dangerous unseated players and then you know rude I I know you know I mentioned that Buu is won a lot of matches recently but monf second round Jerry shung or Sasha Buick third round it's going to be a lot easier for Casper to pick up momentum where you know Taylor and hogar have these early landmines so that that played into it for me Z rude that's been an interesting you know interesting head-to-head they've played two years in a row at onos and health has kind of gotten in the way both times Zev was not healthy last year rude had the stomach bug come up in the middle of the match this year but ultimately I think on hardc court Zev with the serve and his ability to come forward kind of puts the match on his racket more so uh not to mention you know Roode likes to attack righty backand with his forehand Inside Out Zev does such a good job job of withstanding that he he's not bothered by the way roode's ball jumps up high off the court because he's he's such a good high ball hitter as verev so I I think Zev when he's at his best I like him more than rude especially inside Arthur Ash I'll get into this more but it is pretty easy to serve well inside Ash there's no wind since they've installed the roof there used to be a ton of wind used to be very hard to serve well inside Ash unless you were Pete SAS but or feder he did it pretty well too not anymore so I put inev through and uh it would be a continuation for Z of what's been a a great slam season he's played really Djokovic Quarter well at the majors Novak jovic's quarter he's got rublev dimitrov Shelton tiao bayz papin leka My Dark Horse here is Alejandro davidovich folina upset alert not much early popcorn Shelton versus team in the first round I've got to say this quarter in terms of intrigue early on it's the most BL of the quarters I I don't see a lot of first and second round matches that make me super excited but you never know until you play the matches you know sometimes you get surprised uh the reason kovich faka ends up as my Darkhorse other than the fact that he is you know he's been a classic Dark Horse on the channel for quite some time um there's a soft spot in the draw I just don't know what kind of tennis demitro is playing right now uh post injury it it seems like he's he's kind of lost the lost the Rhythm um lost some of his confidence and you got Sebastian Bas grigor demitro so that's the part of the draw that I kind of wanted to Target uh Greek spor is there somit Nagal is there but on in best of five on a medium hardcourt and davidovic faka I always like better best to five it it kind of gives him time to use his physicality in matches I went with him I don't feel super strongly about it upset alert low alert nobody who I really put on high alert here but uh rublev is playing Thiago zbot VCH if you remember earlier this year at the Australian Open Thiago pushed Andre to a fifth set tie break now in hindsight it that still surprises me this matchup on Hardcore I think VCH just he still has a lot of flaws on on this surface from his balance and his footwork not always being super sharp the ability for opponents to to rush him when they go hard through the middle I think you know the the running forehand can get pretty erratic on VCH so it would surprise me if they play another really great epic match or if VCH manages to beat rublev uh but I do think it's notable that the last time they played VCH almost won the match I'll also shout out lka versus fuvi just because Maron is six and six lifetime in the first round of Majors playing against seeds but fuvi since winning a 250 title in Bucharest has not been in form popcorn is Shelton versus Team this is going to be the Opening match on Arthur RH Stadium I just want to say that I'm really glad that they put this match on ash likely giving DOI the sendoff that he so deserves obviously it helped that his opponent is Ben Shelton who's American and a crowd favorite I'll say in New York and he made a semi-final here last year I think Ben getting into the tennis I think Ben would have to play really sloppy in order to lose that match he's going to have a chance to dominate Court position and Di dictate play and and get to the net just with the way team has been playing especially on Hardcore really deep behind the Baseline often times not finding enough weight of shot to really be damaging from the deep positions that he's been playing from it's going to give Shelton time to find more forehand and it's going to give him a lot of time to come forward and hit approach shots on off of off of anything that lands short so I do think Ben will win quarterfinal prediction here is Novak jokovic defeats Andre rublev look Andre had been struggling for a while but you can't really ask for a much better summer if you're his if you're him just given the context it's a somewhat uncomfortable draw for rublev but as long as leka isn't at his A+ level I can't really see anyone taking him out uh he has made quarterfinals at two US opens in a row and two Australian opens in a row so that's pretty impressive four straight hardcourt slams quarterfinals for rublev I think there's enough you know enough to like about rublev with where he's at right now uh in order to back him there I mean he's been on the hardcourt since DC he's one of the the only top players who can say that jokovic what does he have to deal with a lot of aggressive players after albot in in the first round I think they're all players who are going to have a lot of trouble breaking Novak because there's not quite enough return of serve quality or or movement think in the case of poin Novak can kind of expose the backhand uh but then in the quarters ultimately I don't think rublev has done enough developing in order to avoid going now what it would be 0 and 11 in major quarterfinals Andre has had to focus on getting his mind right and you know returning to playing his level that's what the focus has been in the last couple months more than a couple you know last half year since the Dubai thing the focus for Andre has been kind of getting back to you know getting right and that means he's not improving that means he's he's not working on stuff means he's trying to get back to doing what he does best at a high enough level that doesn't bode well against Novak jokovic okay final weekend prediction in three two one alcaraz defeats Center in Final Weekend five jokovic defeats Zev in four jokovic defeats alarz in four I will say that you know the US Open recently has been a slam of opportunity certainly there have been more firsttime major Champions at the US Open than there have been in recent times at the other three but I think that this top four right now they've been Dynamite I think there's a pretty big gap between them and everybody else I don't think that there are any really really big question marks that I can't get past you know with any of them it doesn't feel like Roll On garos To Me For example remember last year at the US Open it was the top three seeds and Ben Shelton so you know it was not a very wide openen US Open last year and that Shelton quarter was clearly going to be up for grabs like I predicted Tommy Paul make the semis out of the Shelton quarter so it was you could see that it was the quarter of opportunity what's the quarter of opportunity this year now I think if anything it's Zev I think Zev is a level below alcaraz jokovic uh Center I also think that there are so many guys here from Runa Fritz Roode uh and musetti there so many guys who have some capability in that quarter to to make a major semi-final but as you know I I still think Sasha gets through I still couldn't pick against him so I have the top four seeds in the US Open semi-final here jokovic over Zev uh you know the best returners have been able to handle Sasha serve and I think in order for Zev to maybe take even another step up he needs to actually take a little bit more risk on his first serve in order for him to do that he needs to trust his second serve the problem is with Zev he still has doubts on his second serve and his forehand and that kills him in these kinds of matchups like the one against jokovic not to mention I think Novak you know he really pounces on that second serve vulnerability that forand of forehand Advantage any kind of baseline passivity from Zev Novak so good at taking advantage of all that alcarez over Center I think alcarez is really on to something when it comes to slowing the pace down against Center so tactically I think that's been a a big development for caritos however mainly I think he's stronger physically and best of five that's what it comes down to like I still think that despite the Cincinnati title the the setbacks from a health standpoint from Center have sort of taken a toll and I I wonder how much does that along with the fatigue from a very you know taxing season and now you bring in the emotional tax of having to deal with the stress that has possibly come with this doping incident how much has that taken it out of yanuk and how much will his endurance which has already been a question how much will that suffer and that's why of the three sener alarz jokovic which I think are the clear top three for me the largest question mark is Center and the physicality jokovic alcarez final I waffled on this a lot uh even today I was going back and forth I think for most of the week I anticipated that I would pick alcarez most of the week um you know this is par for the course I've I've had trouble predicting this matchup to be completely honest alcaras fans are probably really happy that I didn't pick alcaraz because seemingly when I do pick alcaraz he doesn't win um but for Novak it's really a question of first of all what are my thoughts on the motivation and you know my thoughts are the motivation is a concern long term uh but unless he hasn't been grinding hard the last few weeks which which is possible we don't know we'll only know once we start to see him play and we'll see based on his level and his Fitness what it's looked like uh but he said he still feels the drive he obviously got himself in in great shape for the Olympics and that wasn't that long ago he's got the better draw he doesn't need to deal with you know the the center alcaraz on the same half that factors in they might play a very taxing semi-final hypothetically I think Novak is going to be playing very relaxed reled if he plays Carlos in a final I think he'll play more relaxed than alcarez because of the satisfaction of winning the gold because Carlos going for three Majors three straight Majors that's tough that hasn't been done a lot for a reason surface how does that play effect well look alcaraz's win percentage for his career is much lower on hardcore compared to the Natural surfaces now highest is on grass by far uh and then it's Clay and then it's hardcore and I'm not talking about one or two percentage points I'm talking about a substantial difference a substantial dip on Hardcore where I think he's about 83% win percentage for his career you look at jokovic well hard and grass are the are basically the co-leaders and then it's Clay where we've seen jovic's career win percentage take a little bit of a dip so just by that that you know I think jokovic will like that this is on Hardcore in this rivalry he leads the head-to-head 20 on hardcourt in this rivalry Ash is slower than Cincinnati where they played last year or Turin year- end championships where they played last year but as I mentioned serving precisely which was such a key for jokovic when he played alcarez at the Olympics it's not difficult to do that on ash not to mention I don't know how much this convinced me or whatever um hopefully not so much because I think probably he'll be okay alcarez rolled his ankle in practice today I know Novak has been dealing with some stuff too it looks like he's been sore or stiff in like the Trap area upper back neck you know something around that region but you know rolling an ankle is a lot more traumatic than you know feeling stiff in the neck right so there's some concern turn there for alcaraz uh why did I make it four sets because um similar to The Wimbledon final uh normally if I'm not sure I say it's five but I my only exception to the rule is alcaraz I don't pick against alcaraz in five sets he's too good in fifth sets that's why I made it four we'll see how I feel once the final comes around uh and then I'll also revisit predictions ahead of the quarterfinals provided I find the time with the schedule I do intend to stay active uh with the podcast over the course of this US Open hope you enjoyed everybody don't forget to subscribe I'll see you next time