Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on the sustainability of Harris' campaign momentum

geoff: For some analysis of one of the busiest weeks of the 2024 presidential race so far, it's our politics Monday team. That's Amy Walter of the cook political report with Amy Walter, and Tamara Keith of NPR. Hello. So, vice president Harris's campaign launch was greeted with enthusiasm, energy, and a ton of money from Democrats. How can her question -- how can her campaign sustained this momentum for 99 days? Tamara: The good news for them is there is only 99 days until election day. The campaign said they got -- [coughs] So sorry, you go. Geoff: Almost $200 million. Amy: We were talking about this before we went on the air, there has been pent up enthusiasm among Democrats for anybody who could prosecute the case against Donald Trump. They have that now in Kamala Harris. And they finally have that ability in Kamala Harris to make that case. Now, look, I think that's not the part she has to be as concerned about right now, is keeping enthusiasm up among Democrats. Some of it is about her but, as it has long been, it is really about not being Donald Trump and having someone who can make the case against Donald Trump. Geoff: How are you doing? Tamara: Working on it. [Laughter] Geoff: We have seen a polling shift lately. Vp Harris is within one point of Donald Trump with likely voters. Joe Biden was behind six points. Is this national shift something we are seeing in battleground states as well? Amy: Not asked her medic what we are seeing in some battleground state polls -- not as dramatic, but we are seeing a shift two the three points in Harris's favor, which is good news if you are Kamala Harris. But as we discussed with this enthusiasm question, the real challenge going forward for Harris is not that she got the base consolidated. Actually, let me be fair. It was not always a given the base would be consolidated. In one week to go from being the vice president who may be could be come we don't know if she is going to be able to do this, to, she's now gotten the base behind her, is something I think was surprising to a lot of people including a lot of Republicans who were hoping for a more dramatic and less unifying experience. But now she has to go to the next step. Getting two to three points in that national poll gets he within the margin but it does not get her ahead. So she now has to make the cell to the swing voters. Geoff: Got it. We are expecting some time in the next week for vp Harris to name her running mate. She has to do it before August 7 to get a ticket in all 50 state ballot. Who among the reported shortlist do you think boosts the democratic ticket in those battleground states? Amy: It goes back to my previous point about what you need to do with you or vp candidate? Do you need to keep the base energized and excited? I don't really think so. Donald Trump's pick of Mike pence was because he had a base problem. Evangelicals were not sold on Donald Trump. They did not believe he was going to follow through on move -- on many of the promises he made so Mike pence was the person to bring in those voters. Harris I do not think us to worry about where Democrats are going to be. Instead she needs somebody to maybe soften the edges of her record. We are hearing former president trump on the campaign trail, Republicans are running down ballot attacking her, someone who is way, way to the left. Trump called her the most liberal person who has ever run for president. So getting someone who is more of a centrist I think becomes more critical, which puts a lot of those names like mark Kelly and Josh Shapiro in the list. Geoff: Let's talk about J.D. Vance, because he is getting a lot of scrutiny for his controversial comments about men without children. He called them childless cat ladies who are miserable. He has not disavowed the comments and he said just the other day he stands by the substance of what he said. There are lots of Democrats who are now more than happy to target J.D. Vance including the senate majority -- senate minority leader chuck Schumer. >> Vance seems to be more erratic and extreme than president trump and I bet president trump is sitting there scratching his head wondering, why did I pick this guy? The choice may be one of the best things he ever did for Democrats. Geoff: Chuck Schumer, I should say, is the majority lead. I have a lot in my head. How are you doing, tam? Tamara: I think I am better. I had some warm water. Geoff: Our viewers were concerned. Has J.D. Vance become a liability? Tamara: He has had a terrible, no good week. He has somehow galvanized people who have cats. I covered Harris at a fundraiser she went to. There were people outside of her fundraiser holding signs that said cat ladies for Kamala Harris. He has a long file of things he has said back when it didn't matter what he said because he was not going to be vice president. He was the author of a book and a guy running for senate in a Republican primary. So at one point he had said -- I think he called Harris a woman without children, a cat lady, and others who don't have children who should somehow have less political power than those who do. That just set people off. Maybe those people were never going to vote for trump. But generally speaking with your vice presidential pick, either you want it to be edited or a wash. You don't want it to be negative. What trump now has his voters, the media, very focused on vice president Harris and is huge amount of fundraising she has had. All the remaining oxygen is going to his vice presidential pick and is very bad no good week and all the things he said five years ago which have now become memes. Geoff: It allows Democrats to settle on this new messaging where it is not just offensive, it is also really weird. We keep hearing Democrats like Tim Walz, even Kamala Harris has said that the things that trump and Vance and Republicans have said are just weird. Dissect that as a strategy. Tamara: We talked about this so much when we were at the convention together. His pick of J.D. Vance was a sign of supreme confidence. We got this in the bag, we don't need to reach out to swing voters. I am not worried about those because we are weaning and he was not put on the ticket to make up for some deficits that trump may have or win over new voters. He was put on as an additive onto trump. And so of course he has turned off swing voters because he was never brought on to appeal to swing voters, and he has never had to. Remember, his race in Ohio, this is a race he did win pretty handily. And yet for a state as Republican as that, he did not win by as big a percentage as given where the state is as he could or should have. Geoff: Earlier we were talking about vice president Harris's short list for running mate. Based on your reporting, who is on the shortest of shortlists at this point? Tamara: The shortlist is still quite long. We have two services we have spoken to who are familiar with Harris's thinking, and they say it is about a dozen people. That that decision will be made quite soon though. The quality she is looking for among others is executive experience, and the ability to be a governing partner with her, as she sees herself as a governing partner with president Biden. That could be a lot of people, but it certainly points in the direction of governors with executive decision -- experience. Geoff: Tamara Keith and Amy Walter, thanks as always. Amy: You are welcome. Tamara: You're welcome.